This document provides a summary of a blog post from 2009 discussing technology trends and forecasting the future. It begins by describing the optimistic views of technologies at the time, like videoconferencing and Twitter. However, it notes critics who argue this is "technological determinism" that promises more than technologies deliver.
The blog post then discusses an approach the author took - forecasting technologies backwards in time to give plausible reasons for their demise. For example, it suggests Twitter would not scale and become "clogged", seen as similar to email spam, and be replaced by meeting in real pubs with real friends. For videoconferencing, it speculates research may find people prefer face-to-face meetings and