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Mi#ga#on 
of 
the 
impacts 
of 
Ri2 
Valley 
fever 
through 
targeted 
vaccina#on 
strategies 
John 
Gachohi 
and 
Bernard 
Be. 
IntroducDon 
• Ri# 
Valley 
fever 
(RVF) 
virus 
(RVFV) 
is 
a 
mosquito-­‐borne 
pathogen 
that 
causes 
explosive 
outbreaks 
of 
severe 
human 
and 
livestock 
disease 
in 
Africa 
and 
Arabian 
Peninsula. 
The 
rapid 
evoluDon 
of 
RVF 
outbreaks 
generates 
excepDonal 
challenges 
in 
its 
miDgaDon 
and 
control. 
• A 
decision-­‐support 
tool 
(DST) 
for 
prevenDon 
and 
control 
of 
RVF 
in 
the 
Greater 
Horn 
of 
Africa 
idenDfies 
a 
series 
of 
events 
that 
indicates 
increasing 
risk 
of 
an 
outbreak 
and 
matches 
intervenDons 
to 
each 
event 
(RVF-­‐DST, 
2010). 
• This 
study 
assessed 
the 
effecDveness 
of 
targeted 
vaccinaDon 
in 
miDgaDng 
the 
impacts 
of 
RVF 
outbreaks. 
Pictures 
Materials 
and 
methods 
Figure 
1: 
Incidence 
curves 
upon 
vaccina#ng 
50% 
and 
75% 
of 
each 
host 
species 
at 
different 
#me 
points 
iden#fied 
in 
the 
RVF-­‐DST. 
John 
Gachohi 
j.gachohi@cgiar.org 
● 
P.O. 
Box 
30709-­‐00100 
Nairobi, 
Kenya 
● 
+254 
20 
422 
3000 
h]p://aghealth.wordpress.com 
● 
www.ilri.org 
• Predicted 
impacts 
higher 
in 
ca]le 
relaDve 
to 
sheep 
(Fig.1) 
• No 
September 
2014 
major 
differences 
in 
vaccinaDng 
hosts 
during 
the 
period 
prior 
to 
and 
at 
outbreak 
onset 
parDcularly 
in 
ca]le. 
• VaccinaDng 
hosts 
3 
weeks 
a#er 
outbreak 
onset 
has 
li]le 
or 
no 
impact 
parDcularly 
in 
sheep. 
• Similar 
pa]erns 
in 
both 
scenario 
with 
moderate 
reducDons 
in 
the 
AUC 
upon 
vaccinaDng 
75% 
of 
hosts 
(Table 
1). 
• Differences 
in 
impacts 
dependent 
on 
species 
is 
a]ributed 
to 
higher 
populaDon 
turn-­‐over 
and 
higher 
disease 
suscepDbility 
among 
sheep 
relaDve 
to 
ca]le. 
Acknowledgements: 
The 
CGIAR 
Research 
Program 
on 
Agriculture 
for 
NutriDon 
and 
Health 
(A4NH) 
and 
the 
InternaDonal 
Livestock 
Research 
InsDtute 
(ILRI) 
Funding: 
European 
Community’s 
Seventh 
Framework 
Programme 
(FP7/2007-­‐2013) 
under 
grant 
agreement 
no 
266327. 
This 
document 
is 
licensed 
for 
use 
under 
a 
CreaDve 
Commons 
A]ribuDon 
–Non 
commercial-­‐Share 
Alike 
3.0 
Unported 
License 
September 
2014 
• We 
used 
a 
2-­‐host 
(ca]le 
and 
sheep) 
and 
2-­‐ 
vector 
(Aedes 
and 
Culex 
species) 
RVFV 
transmission 
model 
to 
assess 
the 
impact 
of 
vaccinaDng 
either 
50% 
or 
75% 
of 
each 
host 
species 
populaDon 
at 
different 
Dme 
points 
idenDfied 
in 
the 
DST. 
• The 
impact 
is 
measured 
by 
esDmaDng 
the 
area 
under 
incidence 
curve 
(AUC) 
for 
the 
different 
scenarios. 
Results 
Research 
into 
use 
DST 
#me 
points 
included 
in 
the 
model 
and 
their 
lead 
#mes 
based 
on 
recent 
outbreak 
in 
2006/2007 
in 
Kenya 
1. Issuance 
of 
RVF 
early 
warning 
based 
on 
naDonal 
meteorological 
forecasts 
-­‐-­‐ 
11 
weeks 
to 
the 
outbreak. 
2. Onset 
of 
heavy 
rains 
-­‐-­‐ 
6 
weeks 
to 
the 
outbreak. 
3. Occurrence 
of 
mosquito 
swarms 
and 
first 
RVF 
cases 
in 
livestock 
-­‐-­‐ 
at 
outbreak 
onset. 
4. Laboratory 
RVF 
virus 
confirmaDon 
-­‐-­‐ 
3 
weeks 
following 
outbreak 
onset. 
• Targeted 
vaccinaDon 
can 
be 
effecDve 
in 
miDgaDng 
the 
impacts 
of 
RVF 
outbreaks. 
• However, 
challenges 
associated 
with 
predicDon 
of 
the 
outbreak, 
availability 
and 
delivery 
of 
vaccines 
need 
to 
be 
addressed. 
• Impacts 
appear 
to 
depend 
on 
host 
diversity, 
with 
sheep 
potenDally 
requiring 
more 
intensive 
vaccinaDon 
coverage. 
Table 
1: 
Impact 
of 
caOle 
and 
sheep 
vaccina#on 
measured 
as 
propor#onal 
reduc#on 
(%) 
in 
the 
area 
under 
incidence 
curves 
rela#ve 
to 
baseline 
(no 
interven#on) 
Reference 
Decision-­‐Support 
Tool 
for 
PrevenDon 
and 
Control 
of 
Ri# 
Valley 
Fever 
EpizooDcs 
in 
the 
Greater 
Horn 
of 
Africa. 
Am. 
J. 
Trop. 
Med. 
Hyg., 
83(Suppl 
2), 
2010, 
pp. 
75–85

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Mitigation of the impacts of Rift Valley fever through targeted vaccination strategies

  • 1. Mi#ga#on of the impacts of Ri2 Valley fever through targeted vaccina#on strategies John Gachohi and Bernard Be. IntroducDon • Ri# Valley fever (RVF) virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-­‐borne pathogen that causes explosive outbreaks of severe human and livestock disease in Africa and Arabian Peninsula. The rapid evoluDon of RVF outbreaks generates excepDonal challenges in its miDgaDon and control. • A decision-­‐support tool (DST) for prevenDon and control of RVF in the Greater Horn of Africa idenDfies a series of events that indicates increasing risk of an outbreak and matches intervenDons to each event (RVF-­‐DST, 2010). • This study assessed the effecDveness of targeted vaccinaDon in miDgaDng the impacts of RVF outbreaks. Pictures Materials and methods Figure 1: Incidence curves upon vaccina#ng 50% and 75% of each host species at different #me points iden#fied in the RVF-­‐DST. John Gachohi j.gachohi@cgiar.org ● P.O. Box 30709-­‐00100 Nairobi, Kenya ● +254 20 422 3000 h]p://aghealth.wordpress.com ● www.ilri.org • Predicted impacts higher in ca]le relaDve to sheep (Fig.1) • No September 2014 major differences in vaccinaDng hosts during the period prior to and at outbreak onset parDcularly in ca]le. • VaccinaDng hosts 3 weeks a#er outbreak onset has li]le or no impact parDcularly in sheep. • Similar pa]erns in both scenario with moderate reducDons in the AUC upon vaccinaDng 75% of hosts (Table 1). • Differences in impacts dependent on species is a]ributed to higher populaDon turn-­‐over and higher disease suscepDbility among sheep relaDve to ca]le. Acknowledgements: The CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for NutriDon and Health (A4NH) and the InternaDonal Livestock Research InsDtute (ILRI) Funding: European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-­‐2013) under grant agreement no 266327. This document is licensed for use under a CreaDve Commons A]ribuDon –Non commercial-­‐Share Alike 3.0 Unported License September 2014 • We used a 2-­‐host (ca]le and sheep) and 2-­‐ vector (Aedes and Culex species) RVFV transmission model to assess the impact of vaccinaDng either 50% or 75% of each host species populaDon at different Dme points idenDfied in the DST. • The impact is measured by esDmaDng the area under incidence curve (AUC) for the different scenarios. Results Research into use DST #me points included in the model and their lead #mes based on recent outbreak in 2006/2007 in Kenya 1. Issuance of RVF early warning based on naDonal meteorological forecasts -­‐-­‐ 11 weeks to the outbreak. 2. Onset of heavy rains -­‐-­‐ 6 weeks to the outbreak. 3. Occurrence of mosquito swarms and first RVF cases in livestock -­‐-­‐ at outbreak onset. 4. Laboratory RVF virus confirmaDon -­‐-­‐ 3 weeks following outbreak onset. • Targeted vaccinaDon can be effecDve in miDgaDng the impacts of RVF outbreaks. • However, challenges associated with predicDon of the outbreak, availability and delivery of vaccines need to be addressed. • Impacts appear to depend on host diversity, with sheep potenDally requiring more intensive vaccinaDon coverage. Table 1: Impact of caOle and sheep vaccina#on measured as propor#onal reduc#on (%) in the area under incidence curves rela#ve to baseline (no interven#on) Reference Decision-­‐Support Tool for PrevenDon and Control of Ri# Valley Fever EpizooDcs in the Greater Horn of Africa. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 83(Suppl 2), 2010, pp. 75–85