Roman Romashkin and Kamiljon Akramov GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT Transforming Food Systems after COVID-19: Implications of the 2021 Global Food Policy Report for Eurasia Co-Organized by the Eurasian Center for Food Security at Lomonosov Moscow State University, Westminster International University in Tashkent, Armenian National Agrarian University, the World Bank, & IFPRI MAY 27, 2021 - 07:30 AM TO 09:00 AM EDT

1. Roman Romashkin
ECFS, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russian Federation
Kamiljon Akramov
IFPRI, Washington, DC, USA
Transforming Food Systems after COVID-19
Implications for the Eurasia Region

2. COVID-19 pandemic situation in selected countries of the
Eurasian region
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Russia ranks sixth in the number of confirmed cases after the US, India, Brazil, France and Turkey
Total cumulative Per 100,000 population Vaccination
Confirmed
cases
Deaths Confirmed
cases
Deaths Vaccine doses Per 100
population
Russia 5,009,911 118,801 3,433.0 81.4 23,970,334 16.4
Kazakhstan 423,193 4,933 2,253.8 26.3 2,822,556 15.0
Armenia 221,982 4,394 7,491.2 148.3 19,249 0.6
Kyrgyzstan 102,702 1,757 1,574.2 26.9 43,127 0.7
Uzbekistan 98,657 680 294.8 2.0 161,818 0.5
Tajikistan 13,714 91 143.8 1.0 72,347 0.8
Global 166,860,081 3,459,996 1,489,727,128
Source: World Health Organization [Accessed: 25 May 2021]

3. Policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic shock
Source: IFPRI GFPR 2021
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4. Increased spending needs and challenges of financing public
expenditures
Source: IMF, WEO, April 2021
National currency, billions Percent of GDP
2019 2020 2020/2019,
percent
2019 2020 Difference,
percentage points
Kazakhstan 14,079 17,342 123 20.2 25.5 5.2
Kyrgyzstan 202 229 113 34.2 39.8 5.6
Russia 36,995 41,345 112 33.9 38.8 4.9
Tajikistan 23 24 107 29.5 29.7 0.2
Uzbekistan 144,443 173,306 120 28.3 29.9 1.6
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5. Pandemic had significant negative impact on national economies
• Contraction of economic and business activities
(tourism, hospitality, trade, transportation)
• Drop in energy prices and depreciation of national
currencies
• Growth of inflation and unemployment
• Decline in international trade
Source: IMF, WEO, April 2021
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6. But agriculture was resilient and continued to grow
➢ Positive growth rates in agriculture
➢ Intraregional agri-food trade continues to grow
➢ Increasing food and input prices
➢ Application of trade restrictions and price controls
Source: ITC Trade Map
Source: CIS Stat
Source: FAO
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7. Impact on remittances from Russia to Central Asia
➢ Deterioration of Russian labor market and depreciation of ruble reduced employment opportunities
and wages for migrant labor
➢ Total monthly remittances flows dipped substantially from March to May 2020 and recovered in June,
but the average amount of individual transfers was lower compared with 2019
➢ Declines in remittances to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are comparable to those resulting from the 2015
Russian financial crisis, but remittances to Uzbekistan appear to be relatively resilient
Source: Bank of Russia
Remittance flows from the Russian Federation to CIS countries
through Payment Systems, 2019–2020
Remittance flows from the Russian Federation to CA countries,
2019-2020 vs 2014–2015 (Million USD)
46%
42%
33%
13%
39% 24%
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8. Impact on household welfare and food security: Evidence
from a phone survey in Tajikistan
• Incomes have fallen for more than 40 percent of households
• Job losses have affected almost 20 percent of households
• Migration for work remains central to livelihoods, despite COVID-19
(only 8 percent of migrants returned home)
• Pandemic led to reduced household incomes, depleted savings, less-
diversified diets, and job losses
• Many households switched from growing high-value crops
(vegetables) back to staple food crops (cereals)
• Levels of social protection remain low in Central Asia
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9. Looking forward
• How policymakers will navigate the challenges of increased spending needs
and financing public expenditures will significantly affect economic and
social outcomes in the future
• Achieving long-term food and nutrition security in the region will require
free and stable trade in agri-food products
• More sustainable, well-established social safety nets are needed in the
region
• Special policies should be developed to promote labor mobility within
countries and across the region, especially during crises
• Development of ICT infrastructure and digital technologies can provide
enormous benefits for food systems transformation and social
opportunities for the rural population
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10. Thank you for your attention!