Christophe Béné (The Alliance Bioversity International – CIAT) Deborah Bakker and Anne Sonneveld (Wageningen University and Research) Monica Chavarro, Brice Even and Jenny Melo (The Alliance Bioversity International – CIAT Food systems lessons from COVID-19: From understanding fragilities to building resilience Co-Organized by IFPRI and the CGIAR COVID-19 Hub MAR 2, 2021 - 09:30 AM TO 11:00 AM EST

1. openaccessnews
Chris Béné (The Alliance Bioversity International – CIAT)
Deborah Bakker and Anne Sonneveld (Wageningen University and Research)
Monica Chavarro, Brice Even and Jenny Melo (The Alliance Bioversity International – CIAT)
Impacts of COVID-19 on people’s food security
Foundations for a more resilient food system

2. www.cgiar.org
Objective of the study
• Global assessment of the impacts
of COVID-19 on food systems and
their actors
• Focus on the food security and
nutrition
• Preliminary elements of a food
system resilience research agenda
to build back better.
1
Photo: Deepak Choudhary

3. www.cgiar.org
Framework
2
• Food Security
(FAO 1996)
• Food Environment
(Herforth and Ahmed 2015)
• Food systems
wastes and losses
diversity of food items
• Wellbeing
agency – self-efficacy
domestic violence
• Macro economic elements
GDP
poverty line
Food Environment
Food Security
Health & Wellbeing
Foot Print
▪ Stability ▪ Availability (supply)
▪ Access (physical accessibility)
▪ Affordability (economic accessibility)
▪ Proximity
▪ Convenience
▪ Waste and Losses
▪ Diversity of food items
▪ Agency and self-efficacy
▪ Domestic violence and unrest
▪ Risk of contagion
▪ Quality and safety (utilization)
• change in GDP
• change in poverty
Macro-economy
Food system

4. www.cgiar.org
Number of documents
Scope and depth
3
• English, Spanish, French and Portuguese
• 12 months (Jan-Dec 2020)
• 337 documents
• 62 countries

5. www.cgiar.org
Impact pathways
4
1. Disruption in
upstream supplychain
2. Disruption inactors’
own activities
3. Loss ofor reduced
connectivity
4. Reduction in labour/
workers availability
5. Drop in profitability
7. Increasedwastedfood
8. Forced closure of
business dueto safetyor
sanitary decrees
c. Safety or sanitary
decrees/regulations
9. Degradation in Rules
ofLaw
11. Increased abuses against
marginalized individual or
groups
12. Drop in perceived
self-efficacy or agency
16. Domesticviolence
15. Increased exposure
21. Increased risk of
consumption ofunsafe
food
Affecting consumers(including producers,
workers and mid-streamfood system actors)
Affecting producers,workers and food
systemmid-streamactors
Affecting producers,workers andmid-stream
food systemactorsand consumers
Direct effectsof COVIDor
directly-related
responsesby authorities
Immediateconsequences
on food system actors
Subsequentrepercussionson food
systemactorsand/or other (non-food
system)actors
Final impactson consumers’ food
security dimensionsand/or food
systemactors’ health& well-being
6. Reduction in downstream
demand
14. Lossofjob and/or
reduction in income/revenues
10. Increased gender
discrimination
17. Disruption in access to
(usual)food outlets
22. Forcedshift tomore
expensivefood outlets
20. Reduction in
proximityand/or
convenience
19. Degradationin food
choice and diversity
13. Hoarding disruption
a. COVID related
illnessordeath
18. (Relative)increase in price
offood/lower affordability
b. Mobility restriction
and lockdown

6. www.cgiar.org
1. Disruption in
upstream supplychain
2. Disruption inactors’
own activities
3. Loss of or reduced
connectivity
4. Reduction in labour/
workers availability
5. Drop in profitability
7. Increasedwastedfood
8. Forced closure of
business dueto safetyor
sanitary decrees
c. Safety or sanitary
decrees/regulations
9. Degradation in Rules
of Law
11. Increased abuses against
marginalized individual or
groups
12. Drop in perceived
self-efficacy or agency
16. Domesticviolence
15. Increased exposure
21. Increased risk of
consumption ofunsafe
food
Affecting consumers (including producers,
workers and mid-streamfood system actors)
Affecting producers,workers and food
systemmid-streamactors
Affecting producers,workers andmid-stream
food systemactors and consumers
Direct effects of COVIDor
directly-related
responses by authorities
Immediateconsequences
on food system actors
Subsequentrepercussions on food
systemactors and/or other (non-food
system) actors
Final impacts on consumers’ food
security dimensions and/or food
systemactors’ health& well-being
6. Reduction in downstream
demand
14. Loss ofjob and/or
reduction in income/revenues
10. Increased gender
discrimination
17. Disruption in access to
(usual) food outlets
22. Forcedshift tomore
expensivefood outlets
20. Reduction in
proximityand/or
convenience
19. Degradationin food
choice and diversity
13. Hoarding disruption
a. COVID related
illness ordeath
18. (Relative) increase in price
of food/lower affordability
b. Mobility restriction
and lockdown
Impact pathways
5
• Importance of system/dynamics approach:
56 forward and backward links identified
• Multiple intermingled, non-linear pathways.
• from ‘disruption in access to food outlets’ to
‘degradation in food choice and diversity’
• from ‘loss of job/reduction in
income/revenues’ to ‘degradation in food
choice and diversity’
1. Disruption in
upstream supplychain
2. Disruption inactors’
own activities
3. Loss of or reduced
connectivity
4. Reduction in labour/
workers availability
5. Drop in profitability
7. Increasedwastedfood
8. Forced closure of
business dueto safetyor
sanitary decrees
c. Safety or sanitary
decrees/regulations
9. Degradation in Rules
of Law
11. Increased abuses against
marginalized individual or
groups
12. Drop in perceived
self-efficacy or agency
16. Domesticviolence
15. Increased exposure
21. Increased risk of
consumption ofunsafe
food
Affecting consumers (including producers,
workers and mid-streamfood system actors)
Affecting producers,workers and food
systemmid-streamactors
Affecting producers,workers andmid-stream
food systemactors and consumers
Direct effects of COVIDor
directly-related
responses by authorities
Immediateconsequences
on food system actors
Subsequentrepercussions on food
systemactors and/or other (non-food
system) actors
Final impacts on consumers’ food
security dimensions and/or food
systemactors’ health& well-being
6. Reduction in downstream
demand
14. Loss ofjob and/or
reduction in income/revenues
10. Increased gender
discrimination
17. Disruption in access to
(usual) food outlets
22. Forcedshift tomore
expensivefood outlets
20. Reduction in
proximityand/or
convenience
19. Degradationin food
choice and diversity
13. Hoarding disruption
a. COVID related
illness ordeath
18. (Relative) increase in price
of food/lower affordability
b. Mobility restriction
and lockdown
1. Disruption in
upstream supplychain
2. Disruption inactors’
own activities
3. Loss of or reduced
connectivity
4. Reduction in labour/
workers availability
5. Drop in profitability
7. Increasedwastedfood
8. Forced closure of
business dueto safetyor
sanitary decrees
c. Safety or sanitary
decrees/regulations
9. Degradation in Rules
of Law
11. Increased abuses against
marginalized individual or
groups
12. Drop in perceived
self-efficacy or agency
16. Domesticviolence
15. Increased exposure
21. Increased risk of
consumption ofunsafe
food
Affecting consumers (including producers,
workers and mid-streamfood system actors)
Affecting producers,workers and food
systemmid-streamactors
Affecting producers,workers andmid-stream
food systemactors and consumers
Direct effects of COVIDor
directly-related
responses by authorities
Immediateconsequences
on food system actors
Subsequentrepercussions on food
systemactors and/or other (non-food
system) actors
Final impacts on consumers’ food
security dimensions and/or food
systemactors’ health& well-being
6. Reduction in downstream
demand
14. Loss ofjob and/or
reduction in income/revenues
10. Increased gender
discrimination
17. Disruption in access to
(usual) food outlets
22. Forcedshift tomore
expensivefood outlets
20. Reduction in
proximityand/or
convenience
19. Degradationin food
choice and diversity
13. Hoarding disruption
a. COVID related
illness ordeath
18. (Relative) increase in price
of food/lower affordability
b. Mobility restriction
and lockdown
physical accessibility and economic affordability were the two most
frequently reported dimensions of people’s food security affected by
COVID-19, leading to degradation in food choice and diversity

7. www.cgiar.org
Salient points
6
• No major supply shortage – physical and
economic accessibility (consumers)
severely affected
• No global collapse but a lot of suffering
(for many) and some huge profits (for a
few)
o “Losers”: Informal and small operators (with
no support and no social protection) -
Difficult to estimate their number
o “Winners”: larger grocery store and
supermarkets

8. www.cgiar.org
Salient points
7
• Degradation in food insecurity due to
world economy slowdown
• System ‘resisted’ – several interpretations
o System’s actors resilient, or
o Protected as “essential services”
• Many effects still poorly quantified or
documented
o Nutrition
o Shift from Food-Consumed-away-from-Home
to Food-entirely-Consumed-at-Home
(consequences unclear)
o Domestic violence

9. www.cgiar.org
Resilience lessons
8
• Important gaps in our knowledge about
resilience of food systems
o used often rhetorically in food system
policies, and
o too theoretically in the academic
communities
• Where to start….
o Identifying actors’ and value chains’
vulnerabilities - technical, social, etc.
o Understanding actors’ responses to
shocks – ripple effects
o Understand better resilience capacities
• Resilience as a means, not as an end

10. www.cgiar.org
Building back better (3B)
9
• Learning from our mistakes...
• apply resilience analysis principles
• analyzing what worked, what did not
- short-term (reactive) responses
- longer-term recovery strategies
• Going beyond the rhetoric of the
“3B” buzzword (policy-makers)
• Resilience of food systems, political
economy (researchers)
• Learn how to better navigate
tensions between irreconcilable
sectoral priorities Juan Pablo Rodriguez