SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Date
14th May 2021
Presented by
Barra Roantree
(work with Bertrand Maître, Ivan
Privalko and Alyvia McTague)
2
Main findings
Income growth was strong & progressive (if volatile)
• 3.6% p.a. for lowest vs. 2.7% p.a. for highest-income quintile
• Gini coefficient & 90:10 ratio at lowest recorded level in 2019
Poverty & deprivation consistently high for certain groups
• Remains closely linked to the absence of anyone in paid work
Evidence of emergent intergenerational inequalities
• Young adults hardest hit by job losses during the pandemic
• Also facing labour market that never recovered from the Great
Recession, and increasing exposure to private rental sector
3
Disposable income growth was strong & progressive
Note: Authors’ calculations using the ESRI Survey of Income Distribution, Poverty & Usage of State
Services, the Living in Ireland Survey and the Survey of Income and Living Conditions Research
Microdata Files. Incomes after direct taxes paid and benefits received.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Annualised
average
real
growth
(%)
Centile of real equivalised disposable income
1987-2019
4
…& left income inequality at lowest recorded level in 2019
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
90:10
ratio
Gini
coefficient
Year
Gini (LHS) 90:10 ratio (RHS)
Note: Authors’ calculations using the ESRI Survey of Income Distribution, Poverty & Usage of State
Services, the Living in Ireland Survey and the Survey of Income and Living Conditions Research
Microdata Files. Incomes after direct taxes paid and benefits received.
5
While rates of poverty & deprivation have also declined…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
Year
Deprivation (all) Poverty (all))
Note: Authors’ calculations using the Living in Ireland Survey and the Survey of Income and Living
Conditions Research Microdata Files.
6
… they remain enduringly high for lone-parents
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
Year
Deprivation (all) Poverty (all)
Deprivation (lone parents) Poverty (lone parents)
Note: Authors’ calculations using the Living in Ireland Survey and the Survey of Income and Living
Conditions Research Microdata Files.
7
… & single working-age adults not in paid work
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
%
Year
Deprivation (all) Poverty (all)
Deprivation (no one in paid work) Poverty (no one in paid work)
Note: Authors’ calculations using the Living in Ireland Survey and the Survey of Income and Living
Conditions Research Microdata Files.
8
Pandemic has hit employment of young adults hardest
Note: Authors’ calculations using the Labour Force Survey Research Microdata Files.
20
40
60
80
100
120
2019q1 2019q2 2019q3 2019q4 2020q1 2020q2 2020q3 2020q4
Change
in
employment
rate
(2020q1=100)
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-54 55+
9
… compounding still lingering effects of the financial crisis
Note: Authors’ calculations using the Labour Force Survey Research Microdata Files.
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007q3 2009q1 2010q3 2012q1 2013q3 2015q1 2016q3 2018q1 2019q3
Employment
rate
(2020q1=100)
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-54 55+
10
… and increasing exposure to the private rental sector
Note: See Figure 4.7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
%
who
own
their
own
home
Age
1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
11
Implications for policy
Income poverty and material deprivation remain closely
linked to the absence of anyone in paid work
• Should give rise to concerns about the impact of pandemic
related job losses and a slower than hoped for recovery
• Means that the social welfare system remains a powerful tool
for those seeking to address poverty and deprivation
Prospects of millennials should also be cause for concern
• Potential for persistent ‘scarring’ effects on later life outcomes
• Need to ramp up capacity on high-quality training programmes
• Policies that act to tackle the root causes of high rents will
benefit younger adults who risk otherwise being left behind
THANK YOU!

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Poverty, income inequality and living standards in Ireland

  • 1. Date 14th May 2021 Presented by Barra Roantree (work with Bertrand Maître, Ivan Privalko and Alyvia McTague)
  • 2. 2 Main findings Income growth was strong & progressive (if volatile) • 3.6% p.a. for lowest vs. 2.7% p.a. for highest-income quintile • Gini coefficient & 90:10 ratio at lowest recorded level in 2019 Poverty & deprivation consistently high for certain groups • Remains closely linked to the absence of anyone in paid work Evidence of emergent intergenerational inequalities • Young adults hardest hit by job losses during the pandemic • Also facing labour market that never recovered from the Great Recession, and increasing exposure to private rental sector
  • 3. 3 Disposable income growth was strong & progressive Note: Authors’ calculations using the ESRI Survey of Income Distribution, Poverty & Usage of State Services, the Living in Ireland Survey and the Survey of Income and Living Conditions Research Microdata Files. Incomes after direct taxes paid and benefits received. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Annualised average real growth (%) Centile of real equivalised disposable income 1987-2019
  • 4. 4 …& left income inequality at lowest recorded level in 2019 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 90:10 ratio Gini coefficient Year Gini (LHS) 90:10 ratio (RHS) Note: Authors’ calculations using the ESRI Survey of Income Distribution, Poverty & Usage of State Services, the Living in Ireland Survey and the Survey of Income and Living Conditions Research Microdata Files. Incomes after direct taxes paid and benefits received.
  • 5. 5 While rates of poverty & deprivation have also declined… 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 % Year Deprivation (all) Poverty (all)) Note: Authors’ calculations using the Living in Ireland Survey and the Survey of Income and Living Conditions Research Microdata Files.
  • 6. 6 … they remain enduringly high for lone-parents 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 % Year Deprivation (all) Poverty (all) Deprivation (lone parents) Poverty (lone parents) Note: Authors’ calculations using the Living in Ireland Survey and the Survey of Income and Living Conditions Research Microdata Files.
  • 7. 7 … & single working-age adults not in paid work 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 % Year Deprivation (all) Poverty (all) Deprivation (no one in paid work) Poverty (no one in paid work) Note: Authors’ calculations using the Living in Ireland Survey and the Survey of Income and Living Conditions Research Microdata Files.
  • 8. 8 Pandemic has hit employment of young adults hardest Note: Authors’ calculations using the Labour Force Survey Research Microdata Files. 20 40 60 80 100 120 2019q1 2019q2 2019q3 2019q4 2020q1 2020q2 2020q3 2020q4 Change in employment rate (2020q1=100) 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-54 55+
  • 9. 9 … compounding still lingering effects of the financial crisis Note: Authors’ calculations using the Labour Force Survey Research Microdata Files. 20 40 60 80 100 120 2007q3 2009q1 2010q3 2012q1 2013q3 2015q1 2016q3 2018q1 2019q3 Employment rate (2020q1=100) 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-54 55+
  • 10. 10 … and increasing exposure to the private rental sector Note: See Figure 4.7 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 % who own their own home Age 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
  • 11. 11 Implications for policy Income poverty and material deprivation remain closely linked to the absence of anyone in paid work • Should give rise to concerns about the impact of pandemic related job losses and a slower than hoped for recovery • Means that the social welfare system remains a powerful tool for those seeking to address poverty and deprivation Prospects of millennials should also be cause for concern • Potential for persistent ‘scarring’ effects on later life outcomes • Need to ramp up capacity on high-quality training programmes • Policies that act to tackle the root causes of high rents will benefit younger adults who risk otherwise being left behind