Johan Swinnen GLOBAL FOOD POLICY REPORT Transforming Food Systems after COVID-19: Implications of the 2021 Global Food Policy Report for Eurasia Co-Organized by the Eurasian Center for Food Security at Lomonosov Moscow State University, Westminster International University in Tashkent, Armenian National Agrarian University, the World Bank, & IFPRI MAY 27, 2021 - 07:30 AM TO 09:00 AM EDT

1. Johan Swinnen
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
May 26, 2021
Beyond the Pandemic
Transforming Food Systems after
COVID-19

2. Food system transformation
Source: Based on S. Fan et al., “Food Systems for Human and Planetary Health: Economic Perspectives and Challenges,” Food System Economics (forthcoming).

3. Source: FAO 2020; Fan et al 2021
12.6
8.6
8.9
9.8
825.6
628.9
687.8
841.4
400
500
600
700
800
900
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2030**
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence and number of
undernourished worldwide
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Number of people undernourished (million)
The world is not on track to eliminate
hunger and malnutrition

4. -4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
GDP growth per capita (annual %)
Low & middle income Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: World Bank 2020
Source: FAO 2020
Economic growth,
conflict, and food security
12.6
8.6
8.9
9.8
825.6
628.9
687.8
841.4
400
500
600
700
800
900
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2030**
Millions
Percentage
Prevalence and number of
undernourished worldwide
Prevalence of undernourishment (%)
Number of people undernourished (million)
Forcibly displaced people worldwide

5. 3 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet
▪2 billion people with
micronutrient
deficiencies
▪Child malnutrition
▪ Stunting, wasting and
overweight at unacceptable
levels
Source: Heady et al 2020 Torero 2020.

6. Food system pressures planetary boundaries
Climate change reinforces this
4
6
2
8
1
1
14
5
11
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Energy
consumption (%)
GHG emissions
(%)
Share
of
global
total
(%)
Retail and food preparation
Processing and distribution
Fisheries production
Livestock production
Cropping production
Source: EAT-Lancet Report 2019
The global food system
consumes >30% of energy and
produces >20% of GHG emissions

7. COVID-19 impacts on global poverty and nutrition
Impact on Global NUTRITION
Source: Laborde, Martin and Vos, 2020
148
79
42
20%
23%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
40
80
120
160
World Sub-Saharan
Africa
South Asia
Increase no. of poor (millions)
% increase poverty (RHS)
Impact on Global POVERTY

8. Regional differences
Africa
▪ Disease impacts later in 2020
and into 2021
▪ Rural – urban differences
▪ Policy responses depending
on fiscal capacity and existing
programs
MENA
▪ Food supply resilience
▪ Major income disruptions –
remittances, tourism; urban
businesses; greater
hardship for the poor
▪ Safety nets critical and
effectiveness varied
South Asia
▪ Great initial concern, lockdowns
▪ Disease wave (India) later in
2020 and into 2021
▪ Massive scale-up of existing
social protection
▪ Transforming food systems
showed a mix of resilience and
fragility
E & SE Asia
▪ Disease impacts early 2020
▪ Successful lockdowns and
disease control in East Asia
with rapid food and economic
recovery
▪ More varied impacts in smaller
SE Asian countries
LAC
▪ Massive health and economic
impact of the pandemic in
many countries (evolving)
▪ Ongoing modernization of food
systems effective but
vulnerabilities in transitioning
systems
Central Asia
▪ Disruptions exacerbated
ongoing food system
transformation challenges –
diversification, jobs, value
addition, infrastructure, and
digital capacity

9. ▪ Critical trade-offs among health, food
systems, and economic goals. Multisectoral
perspective and clearly defined values
needed.
▪ Increase understanding of the interplay
of health, economic, and social policy
actions.
▪ Develop processes for policy
coordination and increase capacity of
policymakers to work across multiple
sectors.
Policy responses :
Health, food, and economics

10. Agarianna76 / Shutterstock.com
Healthy diets for all: 3 billion could not afford
recommended diets pre-pandemic; number has
increased by approximately 10% since.
Recommendations
▪ Focus on diets to address all forms of malnutrition
▪ Support LMICs: food-based dietary guidelines and
diet standards
▪ Supplement with social protection for those left
behind
▪ Demand-side will drive healthy diets: focus on
consumers and food environments
Nutrition

11. Adam Dean / Panos Pictures
▪ Resilience needs to be integrated into food
systems approaches as one of 5 outcomes to
be considered
Resilience planning needs to consider multiple
and more frequent shocks: disease, climate,
financial, conflict, …
1. Mitigating frequency and severity of shocks
2. Information systems to help anticipate
shocks and plan responses
3. Build capacity to absorb shocks
Resilience

12. Prabhat Kumar Verma / Shutterstock.com
Inclusion :
Poor people are disproportionately affected
1. Main asset is physical labor
2. Large share of income for food
3. More disruptions in food value chains –
since more labor-intensive
4. More affected by disruptions of public social
and nutrition programs
5. Less access to health services

13. 30.8
60.8
71.7
20.8
44.2
69.2
Poorest Middle Richest
Jan-Feb May
50
26.7 27.5
Poorest Middle Richest
COVID-19 impacts on inequality in food systems
Survey results from Ethiopia
Poor people suffer more
from INCOME declines
% of households that have much lower incomes
Source: Hirvonen et al. 2020; Tesfaye et al. 2020.
Poor people suffer more
from NUTRITION effects
% of households consuming dairy products

14. COVID-19 impacts : Rural vs Urban
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures
13.3
16.7
12.2
12.6
16.8
10.7
14.0
16.5
15.0
Indonesia Ghana Nigeria
Increase in POVERTY
(% points
– average per month of lockdown)
National Rural Urban
Source: Amewu et al. 2020; Baulch et al. 2020; Diao et al. 2020; Pradesha et al. 2020; Thurlow, 2020.
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures

15. COVID-19 impacts : Rural vs Urban
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures
13.3
16.7
12.2
12.6
16.8
10.7
14.0
16.5
15.0
Indonesia Ghana Nigeria
Increase in POVERTY
(% points
– average per month of lockdown)
National Rural Urban
Source: Amewu et al. 2020; Baulch et al. 2020; Diao et al. 2020; Pradesha et al. 2020; Thurlow, 2020.
-38%
-18% -14%
-29%
-92%
Total Agriculture Food services
Changes in GDP (%),
NIGERIA: 5-week lockdown

16. Tom Pilston / Panos Pictures
▪ COVID-19 exacerbated inequalities with
vulnerable groups most affected
▪ Women and children
▪ Reversed progress on many SDGs (poverty,
health, gender, nutrition, education)
▪ Complex rural-urban dynamic in COVID-19
impacts
▪ Major investments made in social protection
▪ Reflect urgent needs
▪ Most effective if adapting and scaling of existing
programs
Inclusion

17. Food supply chains
disruptions
Supply disruptions vs. income and job loss
Survey evidence from Myanmar
Respondent assessments of three largest impacts of COVID-19 on their household
Source: IFPRI and MSU, 2020
Household income
and job loss

18. i_am_zews / Shutterstock.com
Atul Loke / Panos Pictures
Restructuring supply chains
and food systems
▪ Heterogeneity:
▪ global vs local
▪ labor vs capital intensity
▪ large vs small (SMEs)
▪ staples vs perishables
▪ Many innovations to overcome restrictions
▪ Organizational
▪ Technology : digital growth and e-commerce
▪ …..
Source: Reardon and Swinnen, 2020.

19. jeep2499 / Shutterstock.com
▪ Awareness increasing but evidence and action lag
behind
▪ Interplay of environment and food systems in disease
emergence (One Health)
▪ Climate and other environmental shocks will increase
in frequency and consequences
Responses
▪ Build evidence and capacity to integrate environmental
sustainability into nature-positive food systems
▪ Multi-pronged approaches: governance, institutions,
policy, and technologies bundled together at
appropriate scales
Natural resources and
environment

20. Sumit Saraswat / Shutterstock.com
Beyond the Pandemic
Transforming Food Systems after COVID-19
1. A transformative moment in history
2. Use lessons from crisis to
transform food systems
3. Much creativity and innovation in
value chains and food systems and
policy-thinking to deal with crisis
▪ finance, digital, social protection, …
4. Use opportunity of global summits
in 2021
5. Crucial role to play for public and
private sectors