It is just 70yrs since the invention of the transistor; and just a few years later, the integrated circuit and the emergence of Moore's Law. This predicted ever increasing function density as transistor size decreased on an exponential law ... And for the last 50yr society has enjoyed through the ever increasing sophistication of what has become known as 'Technology Products'. But we know that all exponents have to end someday, and as current transistor sizes are getting close to that of the atom itself, we have to ask if that day imminent?
5. 5
Radio is Just Signal Processing ...
Bush Radio (c1960)
Analogue
7 Transistors
1 Diode
Evoke DAB Radio (c2005)
Digital
100 M Transistors !
2-3 Embedded Processors
BTH Crystal Set (c1925)
Analogue
1 Diode
Tele-Verta Radio (c1945)
Analogue
4 Valves
1 Rectifier Valve
... Integration Technology made transistors diminishingly
cheap, thus opened the door to Digital Signal Processing
When active components are expensive ...
... use them frugally and efficiently
11. 11
1961: First Commercial Integrated Circuit (IC)
§ And the birth of Digital Electronics ...
§ Much less efficient; but much more scalable
§ More absolute and reproducible results
§ A natural ‘architecture’ for State-Based control
§ State machines (and ultimately processors)
§ Memory
Fairchild: “Flip-Flop” (4 transistors, 2 resistors). $120.
4mm
Robert Noyce
Founder of Fairchild Semiconductor in 1957
and Intel Corporation in 1968
15. 15
2012: Moore’s Law got 45nmTransistors into Production ...
NB: The Tegra 3 is similar to the Apple A4
NVIDIA’sTegra 3 Processor Chip (Around 1B tr.)
... A further ~100x Functionality due to Connective Complexity!
28. 28
Designer Productivity Had Become the Methodology Driver
§ The Product Possibilities offered by utilising the Billions of Affordable and Aesthetically
Encapsulate-able Transistors is Commercially Beguiling!
§ But the only way to realise these possibilities in a reasonable time, with a reasonable team
and at a reasonable cost; is huge amounts of Reuse of Design and Technology ...
§ Hardware, Software and other Technologies; Methods and Tools
§ In-Company: Sourced and Evolved from Predecessor Products
§ Ex-Company: Sourced from businesses with lesser-known(?) Histories, but Specialist Knowledge
§ Reuse Improves Quality; as objects are designed more carefully, and bug-fixes are incremental
§ But beware; systems always have residual errors!
... Now; Clean-Sheet approaches will be several orders of magnitude higher cost!
… So; >99% Reuse is the rule for all Electronic System Product Design and Development!
... Including; specialised Professional Electronic System Applications/Products
29. 29
Software Tools
- The character
of the system
Physical IP
– The process-specific
logic-blocks of the chip
Processor and Graphics IP
– The engine of the chip
2016: ARM IP - Same Concept, but much more System ...
§ And System Designers use ever-more Reuse Objects (Virtual and Physical)
from ARM and from other sources Internally and Externally
Early software
development on
Virtual Platforms
Power MgmtBluetooth
Cellular Modem
WiFi
SIM
GPS
Flash Controller
Touchscreen
& Sensor Hub
Sensor Hub
Camera
Apps Processor
35. 35
§ ARM is a UK Established and Headquartered Co.
§ The Global Leader for Embedded CPU-IP ...
§ Effectively Outsourcing R&D for companies building
Chips and Electronic-System products
§ Technology Reuse shares the development and
maintenance cost over Multiple Users and Applications
§ Technology Roadmap Preserves customers Investment
§ Innovative Business Model yields high margins
§ Upfront license fee – flexible licensing models
§ Ongoing royalties – typically a percentage of chip price
... ARM’s Virtual Product Creates New and
Transforms Existing markets
A 21c ‘Virtual’ Business
2-3
20+ years
Multiple applications
development and sales
2-3 years
Partner chip
development
2-3 years
ARM research and
development
Cost incurred
License revenue $
Royalty revenue $
~1,200 total licenses
… 163 in 2014
>350 potential
royalty payers
12bn ARM-based chips 2014
20% CAGR over last 5 years
~£820m Revenue (~28% on R&D)
~3,300 Employees ww (~1,400 in the UK)
… Figures from ARMY2014 Published Results (Pre SoftBank acquisition)
36. 36
Design its about Delivering a Commercial Opportunity ...
§ Designers create (Technology Based) Stuff to be a Valuable and Viable Product ...
§ Functional - It has GOT to work
§ Economical - Its cost has got to be less than its value
§ Reproducible – It has to Yield, be Distributable and Reliable (enough)
§ Innovative – It has to be Competitive against alternative implementations
§ They Deliver a Promise for the future ...
§ Certainty
§ Timescales
§ Development and Manufacturing Costs
§ Quality (Dependability and Reliability)
§ And they base it on the use of Appropriate Available Technology ...
§ Not the fanciest, newest or optimistically promised (Have to judge between claim and reality)
§ It is about working with others (teams) internally and externally to deliver
§ It is about thinking around and about the problem, and being ingenious in the solution (Ingineer!)
... The Designers Role is to Create a Marketable Product Differentiation!
46. 46
The Market’s Insatiable Appetite for: New – Better - Cheaper
§ Our 21c Society expects ever More Sophisticated Tech. Products at ever Lower Cost
§ And for ~50yrs Planar Shrinking of CMOS has delivered this ... But we have become myopic about alternatives!
... The Market doesn’t mandate Smaller Processes as the way to deliver it!
§ Since ~100nm (~2005) Si shrinks have slowed, got more intricate
and expensive ... Yet ‘Shrinking’ has continued as normal, as designers
re-focused on System-Design to deliver it ...
§ Delivering System performance through integration of multiple-technologies ...
... All equally important now!
§ Through (Re)use of Physical and Virtual Components for Quality and Productivity
§ Through Device and System Architecture and Methods
§ Through integrated Manufacturing and Business Models
... The slowing of Moore’s Law for Si hasn’t meant the end of ‘System Shrinking’!
… So in the 21c it is clear that Moore’s Law is actually about Functional Density
... so its delivery is not inextricably bound to the size of transistors!
47. 47
Conclusions
§ Over the last 70yrs, the Transistor has transformed our Lives ...
§ We have become used to Technology advancing at an exponential pace to continuously-
improve all aspects of Societal and Individual needs, whilst reducing the cost
§ But as Integrated Transistors approach atomic size; we approach a nadir, where further
Si-technology enabled advancement is increasingly difficult ... The end of Moore’s Law?
§ But whilst the capability of Silicon to deliver is already reducing; Products are maintaining
expectation by include a wider scope of technologies to deliver it at the System-Level
§ The Transistor is not dead, but is no-longer the epicenter of the product; the 21c Product is an
alloy of technologies delivering cost-effective End-Product Functionality.
§ Moore’s Law was arguably always a doubling of System-Functionality every 18-24 mth;
and in that vein shows every sign of continuing for the foreseeable future!