They're Not Making Smaller Atoms

1
© Ian Phillips 2017
https://ianp24.blogspot.com
They're not making smaller atoms!
... Electronics after 50yrs of Moore’s Law
Invited Talk at ...
The Institute Of Physics
80 Portland Place, London.
1nov17Prof. Ian Phillips CEng, FIET, FIMA, SMIEEE
Independent Technology Consultant & Philosopher
(Formerly: Principal Staff Eng’r. @ ARM Ltd, UK)
3v1
Visiting Prof. with...

2
§ 1947: William Shockley, John Bardeen and Walter Brattain
Just 70yrs since the First Transistor ...
FirstTransfer-Resistor (Point-Contact)
First Junction Transistor
i
i
C
B
E

3
§ Same ‘Architecture’ (PNP Bipolar Transistor) but
different ‘Implementation’ to Shockley original
§ And different transistor ‘Implementations’ emerging =>
§ £’s per transistor ... So use wisely!
1951: Just 4yrs later; the First Commercial Transistors
1954:The OC71
Transistor Architectural Symbols

4
And just 60yrs since the First Integrated Circuit ...
§ 1957: Jean Hoerni (Fairchild)
The Planar Transistor
§ 1958: Jack Kilby (Texas Instr.)
First Integrated Circuit (3 comp)
...The PlanarTransistor Architecture made Implementation
of the Integrated Circuit possible
The Planar Transistor Architecture

5
1961: Just 3yrs later; the First Commercial Integrated Circuit
§ And the birth of Solid-State Digital Electronics ...
§ Less efficient use of transistors; But much more scalable
§ Separates Design Architecture from Implement’n Tech.
§ A Natural Architecture for State-Based control
§ State Machines (and ultimately processors)
§ Digital Memory
Fairchild: “Flip-Flop” (4 transistors, 2 resistors). $120.
4mm
Robert Noyce
Founder of Fairchild Semiconductor in 1957
Co-Founder of Intel in 1968 with Gordon Moore

6
1965: Integrating 30-40 components ...
§ Transistor Transistor Logic (TTL)...

7
1965: Moore’s Law
§ “Moore's Law” was coined by Carver Mead in 1970, from Gordon Moore's article in
Electronics Magazine 19 April 1965 "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits“.
“The complexity for minimum component
costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor
of two per year ... Certainly over the short term this
rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase.
Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more
uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will
not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. That
means by 1975, the number of components per
integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000. I
believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single
wafer”
At Fairchild, he was designing ICs with ~80 components ...
...And basing his observations on earlier 30-40 component ICs!

8
Architecture and Implementation: Radio Receiver ...
Vrf=Vi*100
Vlo=Cos(t*1^6)
Vi
Vrf
Vif=Vrf*Vlo
Vlo
Vif
Vro='Bandpass'(Vif*1000)
Vro
Architecture

9
Vrf=Vi*100
Vlo=Cos(t*1^6)
Vi
Vrf
Vif=Vrf*Vlo
Vlo
Vif
Vro
C1945: Valve
Technology
Implementation

10
Vrf=Vi*100
Vlo=Cos(t*1^6)
Vi
Vrf
Vif=Vrf*Vlo
Vlo
Vif
Vro
C1960: Transistor
Technology
Implementation

11
Vrf=Vi*100
Vlo=Cos(t*1^6)
Vi
Vrf
Vif=Vrf*Vlo
Vlo
Vif
Vro
Implementation
C2005: ‘IC’
Technology

12
Architecture: Separates Function from Implementation Tech ...
Vrf=Vi*100
Vlo=Cos(t*1^6)
Vi
Vrf
Vif=Vrf*Vlo
Vlo
Vif
Vro
Implementation
... The same Architecture ‘in the box’, but Implemented
using Currently-Available Technology and Methods to
realize more Commercially Attractive Products
Evoke DAB Radio (c2005)
Digital 100 Mtr (2-3Processors)
Bush Radio (c1960)
Analogue 7tr + 1 Diode
Tele-Verta Radio (c1945)
Analogue 4 Valves

13
1970: The Digital Large Scale Integrated Circuit (LSI) ...
§ c1970: 74181 bit-slice 4-bit ALU (300tr, 75gate) ...
§ Provides 16 logic and 16 arithmetic functions
on its operands A and B.
§ Eg: AND, OR, XOR, A OR NOT B, A + B, A - B,
(A OR B) + (A AND NOT B).
§ Can be paralleled to increase arithmetic
‘width’ on a PCB ..or.. in a next generation chip
... Digital Design-Style (Logic Gates) is largely Process Technology and Geometry Independent!
... Which means you don’t have to re-design it every New Process Generation

14
1985: The ARM1 CPU
ARM1 Die-Shot
(Similar size to the 74181)
4-Bits of ALU
(Equiv. to 74181)

15
1991:The ARM RISC-Processor IP Core Concept
§ System Processor Chip Implementation ...
§ 1um CMOS Process Implementation (~1Mtr)
§ Incorporates the ARM 7 Macro-Cell
§ Customer-Added Circuits to differentiate his
product
ARM7 Core
DMA
Par.
Port
PCMCIA UART (2)
Int’t.
Contr.
Memory
Interface
Timers
W’Dog
Arb’tr.
Misc.ARM 7, 32-bit RISC Processor Macro-Cell (50kgate, 200ktr)
... In 20yrs the 74181 4-bit ALU had become a tiny part
of a 32-bit RISC Processor; which in turn is a small part
of a typical chip today ... Moore’s Law in action!

16
10nm
100nm
1um
10um
100um
ApproximateProcessGeometry
ITRS’99
Transistors/Chip(M)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law
Moore’s Law: 50 yrs of Planar-Transistor Scaling ...
Transistor/PM(K)
X
... 20,000x transistors, and 10x speed in last 25yrs!

17
Experts and Expert Companies Improving ...
§ Transistor and Process Architectures
§ Photolithography Lenses, Masks and Photo-Chemistry
§ Manufacturing Machinery and Metrology Tools
§ Precision Handling (Alignment and Control) and Robotics
§ Process and Environment Control
§ Understanding of Physics
§ Use of more Elements
§ Better Process Modelling
... All to keep making Planar Transistors 0.7x their linear dimension every 18-24mth
Moor’s Law maintained for 50yrs by Global Teamwork …
Apple: A7 Chip, 10 Layer MetalASML: EUV 13.6nm Stepper ($100m)
A.Assenov: Atomic-Level Process Modelling
The Simple Planar Transistor

18
But in 70yrs Si Atoms have not got any SMALLER !
§ Silicon Crystal Structure ~ 0.54nm
§ Today’s Processes at ~20nm ...
§ Opinion that 10 or 7nm will be the smallest Ever!
§ Just 2-3 gen. (3-6yr) to the end of ‘Planar’ Scaling !?
... So THE-END for Shrinking Planar Transistors is definitely in sight!
90nm
28nm
14nm
7nm
130nm
§ Already Seriously Difficult ...
§ Difficulty making nm
scale Structures on chip …
§ Major changes to Transistor
Architecture and Photolithography
§ Sharp Increase in Process Complexity and Cost
§ Significantly Reduced Yield and Reliability
§ Statistical nature of Atoms shows through ...
§ Makes Transistor electrical characteristics randomly
variable; Significantly Increasing Design Complexity
§ Theoretically impossible to make a chip where all
transistors work.
§ Power, Speed and Cost
benefit of scaling stopped in
2005 at 100nm (Dennard Scaling)

19
If You Can’t Make Them Smaller; You Can Stack Them Higher!
Planar Transistor - 2D
FIN Transistor - 2.5D
GAA Transistor - 3D
Stacked Transistor – True 3D
(NAND FLASH Memory)
... But uses ever-More Exotic materials and Processes; and ever-Greater Costs
... Which means ever-Bigger Markets to justify the Investment ($B’s)

20
§ General Purpose, Stored Program, Computing Mechanism
§ Technology: Electronics (valves), Digital (base 2)
§ Available today ... Enhanced by Micro-Electronics (Mainframe <=> Laptop)
The Driver for Electronic Technology in 1947 …
Uo.Manchester, BABY Computer (Reconstruction 2000)

21
So Does HPC Drive Technology today?
§ High Performance Computing (HPC),
Mainframes & Workstations …
§ Professional Electronic Systems
§ Weather, Military and Financial
§ Highest in-box performance needs
§ ‘Stretches the envelope’
§ Surely such challenges must always
be the Technology Driver !!
NO !… Don’t have enough Market Volume/Value today to justify Technology Development Costs !

22
Consumer Drives Technology Dev’t Today
... Products Purchased and Used by Consumers, are chosen for Function not Technology

23
... ‘Old’ Markets remain today; but they inherit their Technologies from the Lead Markets!
Business Opp’ty Has Always Driven Technology Evolution
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Millionsof
Units
1st Era
Select work-tasks
2nd Era
Broad-based computing
for specific tasks
3rd Era
Computing as part
of our lives
But End-Customer has evolved from Professional to Consumer

24
A Product is a Commercial Opportunity ...
§ Design Engineer: Creates a Viable (Technology) Solution to fulfill a Product Opportunity ...
§ Functional - It has GOT to work
§ Economical - Its cost has got to be less than its value
§ Reproducible - It has to Yield, be Distributable and Reliable (enough)
§ Innovative - It has to be Competitive against Alternative implementations
§ He/she is making a Prediction for the future ...
§ Certainty: Deliver as promised
§ Timescales: Deliver when promised
§ Costs: Development & Manufacturing
§ Quality: Dependability and Reliability
§ And they base it on the use of Appropriate Available Technology ...
§ Not the fanciest, newest or optimistically promised (Have to judge between claim and reality)
§ It is about working with others (teams) internally and externally to deliver
§ It is about thinking around and about the problem, and being ingenious in the solution (Ingineer!)
... The Design Engineer’s role involves endless learning and the application thereof

25
Technology in an iConic Technology-Product ...

26
But Design Actually Happens at Many Levels Below this ...

27
Inside the Case ...
Down 1-Level: Modules
iPhone 4's vibrator motor.
rear-facing 5 MP camera with 720p video at
30 FPS, tap to focus feature, and LED flash.
Source ... http://www.ifixit.com

28
Take a Look Inside...
http://www.ifixit.com
The Control Board.
Level-1: Modules

29
Inside The Control Board (A-side)
Level-2: Sub-Assemblies
§ Visible Computing Contributors ...
§ Samsung: Flash Memory - NV-MOS
§ Cirrus Logic: Audio Codec - Bi-CMOS
§ AKM: Magnetic Sensor - MEM-CMOS
§ Texas Instruments:Touch Screen Controller and mobile DDR - Analogue-CMOS
§ RF Filters - SAW-Technology
§ Invisible Computing Contributors ...
§ OS, Drivers, Stacks, Applications, GSM, Security, Graphics, Video, Sound, etc
§ Software Tools, Debug Tools, etc

30
Inside The Control Board (B-side)
Level-2: Sub-Assemblies
§ More Visible Computing Contributors ...
§ A4 Processor. Spec:Apple, Design & Mfr: Samsung Digital-CMOS (?nm) ...
§ Provides the iPhone 4 with its GP & Graphical computing power.
§ ARM CPU and other ARM IP based
§ Imagination Tech. GPU
§ ST-Micro: 3 axis Gyroscope - MEM-CMOS
§ Broadcom: Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and GPS - Analogue-CMOS
§ Skyworks: GSM Analogue-Bipolar
§ Triquint: GSM PA Analogue-GaAs
§ Infineon: GSM Transceiver - Anal/Digi-CMOS GPS
Bluetooth,
EDR &FM

31
The A4 SIP Package (Cross-section)
Down 3-Levels: IC Packaging
§ The processor is the centre rectangle. The silver circles beneath it are solder balls.
§ Two rectangles above are RAM die, offset to make room for the wirebonds.
§ Putting the RAM close to the processor reduces latency, making RAM faster and
cuts power.
§ Unknown Mfr (Memory)
§ Samsung/Apple/ARM (Processor)
§ Unknown (SIP Technology)
Source ... http://www.ifixit.com
Processor SOC Die
2 Memory Dies
Glue
Memory
‘Package’
4-Layer Platform
Package’

32
§ All the component Technologies must be there and work with each other to have a Product
§ The most important technology is the one that you ‘don’t have’ ... Components and
technologies (including new technologies) that don’t work as expected!
20 Chips; Whose Design and Processes are Important …
… But they are NOT The Most Important part of a Product
Down 4-levels: Chip Design(s)

33
2012: Moore’s Law got 45nmTransistors into Production ...
NB: The Tegra 3 is similar to the Apple A4
NVIDIA’sTegra 3 Processor Chip (~1Btr)
... A further ~100x Functionality due to Connective Complexity!

34
Many Virtual-Components in todays iCons
§ Physical Components appear on the BOM (So get the attention)
§ But many Virtual Components also have to be there ...
ØAnalogue and Digital Design
ØEmbedded Software
ØSignal Processing
ØDisplays and Transducer Technology
ØSystem Knowledge and Know-How
ØKnowledge (Research/Preparation)
ØSkilled People (Training)
ØComponent, Sub-System and
Systems Design and Qual’n
ØMicro-Machines (MEMs)
ØMechanics, Plastics and Glass Tech.
ØMetrology, Methodology and Tools
ØSales Channels, Cash-Flow, Business
ØManufacture (Reproduction) and Test

35
10nm
100nm
1um
10um
100um
ITRS’99
Transistors/Chip(M)
Transistor/PM(K)
Designer Productivity was always the Challenge ...

36
10nm
100nm
1um
10um
100um
ITRS’99
Transistors/Chip(M)
Transistor/PM(K)
... Without >90% Reuse, today’s Electronic Systems would be Un-Producible !
Designer Productivity was always the Challenge ...
Global TeamsLocal TeamsSmall TeamSingle Designer
Expertise ReuseHW&SW ReuseSome ReuseClean Sheet

37
Designer Productivity Has Become the Methodology Driver
§ The Product Possibilities offered by utilising the Billions of Affordable and Aesthetically
Encapsulate-able Transistors is Commercially Beguiling!
SanDisk: 19nm 128Gb flash memory chip
... ~60,000m (60B) transistors
§ BUT if you can’t design your chip it in a reasonable
time with a reasonable team and within at a
reasonable budget ... Then it is not available!
§ (60B transistors) It requires huge amounts of Reuse of Design,
Technology and Methods
§ Even Professional & Military Applications can’t afford clean-
sheet design any more!
... So Companies like ARM make Designer-Productivity
Products for use in the Design-Phase of Electronic-
System Products ...

38
Software Tools
- The character
of the system
Physical IP
– The process-specific
logic-blocks of the chip
Processor and Graphics IP
– The engine of the chip
ARM is a System-Design Productivity Product ...
... It enables End-Products Companies (Apple, Tesla, Samsung, etc) to create
products with ‘Intelligence’ in them, in reasonable time and effort.
Early software
development on
Virtual Platforms
Power MgmtBluetooth
Cellular Modem
WiFi
SIM
GPS
Flash Controller
Touchscreen
& Sensor Hub
Sensor Hub
Camera
Apps Processor

39
ARM CPU/GPUs are Software-Engines ...
... A range with different performance sweet-spots for different application domains
About 50MTr
About
50KTr

40
... ARM supplies around 24 Processors in 6 Families ...
... Processors optimised to be used Alone or in Combination to best-fit the Application

41
... With CoreLink for Heterogeneous Multi-Processing ...
ACE
ACE
NIC-400 Network Interconnect
Flash GPIO
NIC-400
USBQuad
Cortex-
A15
L2 cache
Interrupt Control
CoreLink™
DMC-520
x72
DDR4-3200
PHY
AHB
Snoop
Filter
Quad
Cortex-
A15
L2 cache
Quad
Cortex-
A15
L2 cache
Quad
Cortex-
A15
L2 cache
CoreLink™
DMC-520
x72
DDR4-3200
8-16MB L3 cache
PCIe
10-40
GbE
DPI Crypto
CoreLink™ CCN-504 Cache Coherent Network
IO Virtualisation with System MMU
DSP
DSP
DSP
SATA
Dual channel
DDR3/4 x72
Up to 4 cores
per cluster
Up to 4
coherent
clusters
Integrated
L3 cache
Up to 18 AMBA
interfaces for
I/O coherent
accelerators
and IO
Peripheral address space
Heterogeneous processors – CPU, GPU, DSP and
accelerators
Virtualized Interrupts
Uniform
System
memory
... Platform Models and Development Systems to help the customer develop their Product

42
… Tools, Libraries and Partners to Realize the Opportunities
§ Technology to build Electronic System solutions:
§ Software, Drivers, OS-Ports, Tools, Utilities to create
efficient system with optimized software solutions
§ Diverse Physical Components, including CPU and GPU
processors designed for specific tasks
§ Interconnect System IP delivering coherency and the
quality of service required for lowest memory bandwidth
§ Optimised Cell-Libraries for a highly optimized SoC
implementations
§ Well Connected Partners in the System Life-Cycle:
§ For complementary tools and methods required by the
System Developers
§ Global Technology Global Partners:
§ ~1000 Partners; Millions of Developers

43
Supplier in the Life-Cycle of Electronic System Products
ARM Chips shipped in 2014
by ARM Partners
ARM Chips Shipped to Date by
ARM Partners

44
§ ARM is a UK Established and Headquartered Co.
§ The Global Leader for Embedded CPU-IP ...
§ Effectively Outsourcing R&D for companies building
Chips and Electronic-System products
§ Technology Reuse shares the development and
maintenance cost over Multiple Users and Applications
§ Technology Roadmap Preserves customers Investment
§ Innovative Business Model yields high margins
§ Upfront license fee – flexible licensing models
§ Ongoing royalties – typically a percentage of chip price
... ARM’s Virtual-Product Creates New and
Transforms Existing markets
A Virtual-Product Business ...
2-3
20+ years
Multiple applications
development and sales
2-3 years
Partner chip
development
2-3 years
ARM research and
development
Cost incurred
License revenue $
Royalty revenue $
~1,200 total licenses
… 163 in 2014
>350 potential
royalty payers
12bn ARM-based chips 2014
20% CAGR over last 5 years
~£820m Revenue (~28% on R&D)
~3,300 Employees ww (~1,400 in the UK)
… Figures from ARMY2014 Published Results (Pre SoftBank acquisition)

45
Conclusions
§ Over the last 70yrs, the use of the Planar Integrated Circuit has transformed our Lives ...
§ Society now expects all aspects of Societal and Individual need to continue to improve; and
rightly sees Moore’s Law as being the primary vehicle for delivering it to-date.
§ But as Planar Transistors are approaching the size of the atom then 2D shrinking must end
soon; so does that also mean the end of this ‘continuous improvement’?!
§ The 21c Product is an Alloy of Technologies working together to deliver System Functionality
... Whilst the Transistor is still fundamental, it is no-longer the epicenter.
§ Moves into 3D IC Technology, along with use of more sophisticated design, manufacturing
and packaging looks like it can maintain a System-Level Moors Law for the foreseeable future.
§ The size of the Si Atom is forcing a re-think for planar technology. But full exploitation of Si 3rd
Dimension (over time) will take IC capacity way beyond any reasonable boundsJ

46
https://ianp24.blogspot.com
Thankyou for Listening ...
“The reports of my death
are greatly exaggerated”
Si Atom

They're Not Making Smaller Atoms

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to They're Not Making Smaller Atoms

Similar to They're Not Making Smaller Atoms (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

They're Not Making Smaller Atoms