2. Military regime since 1956 North National Congress Party (NCP) Arab Muslim South Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) Largely Christian 2 civil wars 1956-1972 1983-2004 SEPARATE FROM DARFUR Peace Talks 2002-2004 History
3. Goal of achieving a peaceful Sudan Established a formal ceasefire Allowed for the first competitive elections since 1986 Ended 20 years of civil war Over 2.5 million dead Over 4 million displaced South given autonomy for 6 years Referendum as end result Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA)
4. January 9, 2011 Split the South and the North into two separate states Would be newest state in Africa since 1993 Many incentives for passing the referendum US agricultural aid Removal from terrorist sponsor list Referendum
5. Khartoum does not want the split Many attempts to disrupt the process through intimidation Desire for oil resources to remain with the government Promoting the idea of a chaotic, unruly South Al-Bashir’s personal stake Voter intimidation Threats “Cut off their fingers and crush them under our shoes.” Discouraging the South Fears of violence during interim period Unilateral Declaration of Independence not desired The Khartoum Problem
6. Humanitarian intervention No oppression by opposition leadership Prevention of further civil war Suppression of new conflict Sudan is a vital source for oil Khartoum does not want the split Many attempts to disrupt the process through intimidation Want to maintain control over the southern oil region Why should we lend support?
7. Peacekeepers may not be accepted, but are necessary Needed to prevent registration fraud Ink and location issues UN is monitoring Obama already supports the referendum In a win-lose situation, always accept a win Solution
