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Shaul Arieli's Presentation in Australia


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The Feasibility of the Two-State Solution – Presentation by Col. (Ret.) Shaul Arieli in Australia

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Shaul Arieli's Presentation in Australia

  1. 1. The Feasibility of the Two State Idea: Israel – Palestine Shaul Arieli 2015
  2. 2. • 673,400 Arabs • 83,790 Jews Two national narratives which contradict each other. But every one of them has political, legal and moral validity.
  3. 3. : “…only by means of partition can these two opposing national aspirations be manifested in concrete terms, and the two peoples allowed to take their place as independent nations in the international community and in the United Nations…” (Partition Report).
  4. 4. “There Is No Alternative” The two sides entered into the peace process in 1988-1993 in the belief that the diplomatic option was the best way of securing their national interests in light of the regional and global developments at the time: USAGulf War Demographic balance Intifada
  5. 5. Year Israel (78%) 201379.3% 202078.5% 202478.1% 203077.4% 203477.4% 205078.7% Demographic Trend - Jewish Population
  6. 6. West Bank – Israeli Settlement 570,000 Israelis(100%) 137 Settlements(100%) 130,000 Israelis(23%) 107 Settlements(78%) 440,000 Israelis(77%) 30 Settlements(22%)
  7. 7. 97.1% Jewish communi ties Jewish residents Arab communi ties Arab residents Total residents% Arabs Jordan Valley & Nth. Dead Sea4551,135249664,152715,28792.8 Western Judea & Samaria3483,287163422,787506,07483.5 Mountain Ridge2831,3132841,065,1511,096,46497.1 Jerusalem Surrounds30387,55296517,15590,470757.1 Total137553,2877922,669,2453,153,532 83 Percentage of Palestinians in 4 zones of Jewish settlement 92.8% 83.5% 57.1%
  8. 8. Year Land of Israel (100%) Israel without Gaza 201352.2%61% 202049% 202447.7%57% 203044% 203446.4%55.8% 205033% Demographic Trend - Jewish Population
  9. 9. Israel On the regional and national level, demographic processes are influencing three key goals: 1. To be a Jewish state 2. To be a democratic state 3. To extend over the entire historical territory However, Israel can only realize two of these three goals simultaneously: 1. It can be Jewish and territorial… But not democratic 2. It can be democratic and territorial… But not Jewish 3. It can be Jewish and democratic… But not territorial
  10. 10. • Borders: 1967 lines as a basis and territorial exchange on a 1:1 ratio • Jerusalem: Division of East Jerusalem between the two capitals • Refugees: Solution to the refugee question that is not based on immigration to to Israel • Security: The Palestinian State will be demilitarized and all forms of violence must end. • Two states, a national home for the Jewish people and a national home for the Palestinian people Parameters of an Agreement
  11. 11. 428.5 21 km 85% of Israelis in 56 communities under Israeli sovereignty 90K
  12. 12. 63% of Israelis in 30 communities under Israeli sovereignty 220K
  13. 13. The basic tension The fundamental dilemma How to reconcile reliable security arrangements with the minimum possible disruption to Palestinian sovereignty? ? ? ? ? ?
  14. 14. Key Assumptions: 1. It is not possible to separate the Palestinian issue and the regional situation. 2. The Middle East suffers from a high level of uncertainty, it is difficult to predict where the processes lead us. Israeli Perception
  15. 15. 10M internally displaced 3.5M refugees Over 250K deaths 10% children 1/3 buildings destroyed ½ hospitals destroyed CW attacks ½ the army defected (mostly seniors) The Situation in Syria
  16. 16. Iraq 1. Divided State 2. Iranian dominance and influence through Shiite militias
  17. 17. Iran’s growing influence
  18. 18. The major changes in Past decades 1. USA -The only superpower(1988) 2. Peace Agreement with Egypt(1979) 3. Mutual recognition between Israel and the PLO & Oslo Agreement(1993) 4. Peace Agreement with Jordan(1994) 5. Arab League Peace Initiative(2002)
  19. 19. Bilateral security: From control on the ground to disarmament and security arrangements
  20. 20. Key Assumptions 3. To establish a stable, functional and responsible Palestinian state without harming Israel's security needs. 4. Israel wants to ensure that if the agreement with the Palestinians collapses, its security situation would not worsen. 5. It takes time to rebuild the trust between the parties
  21. 21. • Preventing terrorism and attacks from the borders – and restrictions on armament. • Establishing "conditional security depth." • Security cooperation – bilateral, trilateral (Jordan, Israel, Palestine) and regional. • An international force to operate as part of the security arrangements between Israel and Palestine, undertaking monitoring and mentoring and deterring violations of the agreement. The Israeli Security Perception Regarding a Future Agreement with the Palestinians is Based on Four Pillars:
  22. 22. Agreed Security Arrangements 1. Demilitarization 2. Presence of international forces 3. Early warning stations 4. Israeli control of airspace Security in the two state solution
  23. 23. • The duration of temporary IDF presence: 5-15-40 • Transfer of responsibility: multinational force/NATO/ American/ Palestinian • Crossing points supervision
  24. 24. The Jerusalem Issue “We won’t be asked to divide something that is already divided” (Teddy Kollek)
  25. 25. Jerusalem: Division of Neighborhoods on Demographic Basis
  26. 26. 2.5‫קמ‬"‫ר‬ 70,000 Residents • Palestinians - Demographic division • Israel- International Management
  27. 27. Residence – Palestinian refugees may return to the Palestinian state, remain in their host countries or emigrate to a different consenting state. Israel proposal in Annapolis (2008) – 1000 each year for 5 years Palestinians proposal in Annapolis (2008) – 10,000 each year for 10 years Compensation – an international mechanism will manage the financing of treatment and compensation of the refugees issue Refugees
  28. 28. No Real Alternatives
  29. 29. Division of Responsibilities in the West Bank Area A 1,173,697Area B 886,011 Area C 74,756 Total population of West Bank: 2,134,464 Area A 18% Area B 22%Area C 60% % of Area of the West Bank Distribution of the Total Population in the West Bank
  30. 30. “Stability Initiative”: “Israel will Annex C Areas (60% of the West Bank) and the Palestinians will have a “Self Rule” in the Palestinian Cities” (Naftali Bennet, 2012)
  31. 31. One State •Gaza? •Refugees? •Economy? •Security? “Full Annexation”: “To start a process which at the end of it the Palestinians will have “Blue I.D, Yellow Number, Social insurance and a Right to vote to the Knesset” (Elitzur, 11) “I prefer the Palestinians as Israeli Civilians rather than divide the Land” (Reuven Rivlin, 2011)
  32. 32. 13 10 7 One state inc. Gaza One state without Gaza Israel 2013 inc. East Jerusalem Unemployment rate (16+) Series1 23,710 27,331 40,000 One state inc. Gaza One state without Gaza Israel 2013 inc. East Jerusalem Per Capita GDP ($) 287,781 286,014 280,984 One state inc. Gaza One state without Gaza Israel 2013 inc. East Jerusalem GDP ($ Millions)
  33. 33. “Jordan is Palestine”: – “The Palestinians in Yehuda ve-Shomron will have to choose to be Israeli Inhabitants and Citizens of the Palestinian-Jordanian State and Vote for the Parliament in Amman” (Arieh Eldad, 2009)
  34. 34. Stagnation & Potential deterioration
  35. 35. Hamas Challenge
  36. 36. The Sensitivity of the Temple Mount
  37. 37. International “Involvement” According to the latest UN report: Foreign investments in Israel have fallen by Since Operation Protective Edge, total overnight stays by tourists in Israel have fallen by 2014 6.4billion 2013 8.1billion 46% 25%
  38. 38. An agreement is necessary before: • The existing political leadership is replaced • Iran - the destructive power - achieves nuclear capability • Hamas takes over the PLO • The international community begins to impose boycotts and sanctions against Israel • Extreme nationalism takes over Israeli democracy • A visible increase of anti-Semitism in the world because of Israeli policies
  40. 40. “But here, too, we must tell the whole truth: In the heart of the Jewish homeland a large population of Palestinians now lives. We do not wish to rule them, to manage their lives, or to impose our flag and our culture on them. In my vision of peace, two free peoples live side by side in our small country, in neighborliness and mutual respect. Each has its own flag, anthem, and government. And neither threatens the security and existence of its neighbor.” Bar Ilan Speech 2009