13. HOW EFFICIENT ARE WE?
475
55
Source: University of Cambridge, global figures , in EJSource: University of Cambridge
Units: Exajoules
Only 11% efficient
www.onlyelevenpercent.com
14. IEA’s EFFICIENT WORLD SCENARIO
- Boost cumulative output by $18 trillion by 2035
= GDP US, Canada, Mexico, Chile combined
- Additional investment of $11.8 trillion
- Reduces fuel expenditures by $17.5 trillion
- Reduces supply side investment by $5.9 trillion
- Oil demand peaks at 91 million barrels per day before
2020 and declines to 87 million per day in 2035
- Energy related CO2 emissions peak before 2020 and
decline to 30.5 Gt in 2035
Source: IEA WEO 2012
15. LCOE Summary (€/MWh)
€30 - 75
€60 - 75
€110 - 140
€125 - 250
€125 - 175
€250 - 350
€20 - 45
Fossil / nuclear
Onshore wind
Large PV
Small PV
Offshore wind
Tidal stream
Energy efficiency
Source: Fraunhofer Institute and ACEEE
16. Energy efficiency: 21 jobs per $1m spend
Energy generation: 10 jobs per $1m spend
Economy as a whole: 17 jobs per $1m
Source: ACEEE 2011
24. $279 billion investment opportunity
10 year energy savings > $1 trillion
3.3 million new jobs
600 million tonnes GHG (10% US total)
Source: Deutsche Bank and Rockefeller Foundation
31. 10% weight reduction = 7% gain fuel efficiency
Excess weight kills any self-propelled vehicle. Weight may
be desirable in a steam roller but nowhere else.
Henry Ford, 1924
Aluminium has potential to reduce weight by 40%
Sources: MIT & AluEurope
Thanks to Jan for asking me back to EcoSummit to talk again about the magic of energy efficiency.
If you are not worried about the energy supply situation you should beEven if you think shale gas will be abundant and cheap you should still worry
We are totally dependent on these things – very large crude carriers33% of all our energy is still oilMore than 90% of all our transport is oil based
Of course there are some people in the world who would like to see this supply of oil stopped
And of course there are some people who spend their lives trying to keep the oil sea lanes openThe US spends about $279bn on defending the Middle Eastern sea lanesThat works out as $83 per barrel of Saudi exportsOnly 20% of that goes to the US so the US is spending c.$400/barrel of Saudi exports to the USAIn 10 years or less US will become a net energy exporter so you might reasonably ask whether the US will continue to spend that much money in future
The oil industry has 2 other hidden problemsAgeing infrastcutureAgeing workforceBoth of these threaten oil supplies and the environment
Saudi Arabia, and indeed all the oil producing countries, have another problemToday Saudi exports 10 miilion barrels a dayAccording to Chatham House by 2035 Saudi domestic demand, which is growing at 7% per annum, will equal productionThere is a reason why Saudi is interested in solar and energy efficiency
Europe has another problemIt exports 500m euros per annum, more than the Greek national debt every year
The big energy problem is of course that the word is getting richerBy 2030 there will be an additional 3 billion middle class, mainly in Asia of courseOf course when you enter the middle class your energy demand spikes up sharply as you buy more stuff, lights, air conditioning, cars etc
A really big issue with energy is that despite all the concerns over energy supplies, we really are not using enough of it. Over 1.3 billion people are estimated to be without electricity at all – an almost unimaginable scenario for most of us who are becoming more and more electrified.
Another big problem in Europe particularly is fuel poverty caused by high energy prices and poor quality buildingsIn the UK we have 1.6 million children in fuel poverty – shocking statistic
This is a picture form 1974 when we had in the UK something called the 3 day week. I should say it isn’t me but I do remember the situation. In the 3 day week we only had 3 days of power in industry and regular power cuts. This was caused by the miners going on strike. Many countries including the UK are facing supply crises because of under investment in generation.Last week I was speaking in Johannesburg and on the 23rd May ESKOM, the South African electricity supplier had a supply margin of 0.4% - yes zero point four percent. That is close!
It may surprise you to learn just how inefficient we really are. Research from the University of Cambridge shows that we put 475 units of energy (fuel, nuclear, everything) in and we actually only usefully use 55 units – a total efficiency of about 11%. Isn’t that amazing – all of our technology and the best the world can do is 11% efficiency!Hence the title of my blog onlyelevenpercent.com
Lots of studies show the huge potential for profitable investment in energy efficiency. This is the IEA Efficient World scenario.It shows the truly massive potential of EE to reduce energy costs, reduce investment in supply technologies, reduce oil demand and reduce CO2 emissions.This is a really positive scenario which if we could implement it would bring many benefits.
EE is of course the cheapest source of energyI won’t go through these numbers of Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for the existing grid and various renewables but, even with the cost of solar coming down, EE is cheaper
At least in Europe and the US we are desperate to generate jobs.Many studies have shown that EE creates more jobs per million of spend, 21 in this US ACEEE study compared to 10 for the generation industry and 17 for the economy as a whole. Therefore shifting resources from energy supply to energy efficiency will create much needed jobs.
I often hear the question why isn’t energy efficiency happening? It seems to be based on an idea that stuff isnt happening.
We need to look at in a different way in order to really understand energy efficiency
EE is happening and it is happening big time even though we don’t seem to realise it
This is a really important chart showing the evolution of energy demand in the USA over the last 30-40 years.The blue dotted line is the 1970 energy use. The top 2 lines (there are 2 as one includes exports but don’t worry about that) are the energy use that would have happened if the US had not improved its energy efficiency. The (orange/brown) line is actual energy use.So – if you then look at the blocks on the right hand side they show the supply of energy from different resources; oil, coal, nuclear, renewables. So that is the energy split today – and we can see that energy efficiency is providing more energy services than all the other types of energy put together.That is the magic of energy efficiency and we did it without even trying – just imagine what we could do if we tried. We can decouple economic growth from energy growth completely.
I am just going to talk about a few examples of EE in practice and opportunities for new businesses – can only be a very few highlights and thoughts covering all sectors
Housing – big opportunities in housing including whole house retro fits, controls, micro cogeneration etc
The NESTThis is a thermostat that has caused a sensation in the USA.It was described as the thermostat that Steve Jobs would love and was designed by a former Apple designerThis is a $249 item that was sold out in the USA when it was launched – I have one sitting on my desk if you are interested in a grey market one.It provides lots of feedback to users and learns to adapt to your house and your lifestyleNot a new idea but 1st one that has captured public imagination in a new way
Non residential buildings are a huge opportunityThis work by DB and Rockefeller outlined the size of the opportunity
A now famous case study on benefits of systems thinkingESB – a difficult building to retrofit>38% savings3.1 year pbp on incremental capitalAchieved because a very knowledgeable, and forceful client insisted that his service providers worked together and took a holistic approach
Dynamic building materials are another big opportunity.View Glass makes electrochromic glass – glass that changes its visual and thermal characteristics - which can reduce HVAC energy demand by 20% and really importantly, peak loads
Of course everybody knows about the massive growth of LED lightingJust read a new US DOE report that said the sales of LED fittings in the US has gone up by a factor of 10 in the last 2 years, 4.5 million units up to 49 million unitsMcKinsey did a study and compared the energy saving potential of LEDs by 2020 in terms of nuclear reactors – absolutely stunning – that is what is happening now
Envision CharlotteThis is a scheme in Charlotte – a unique public private collaboration in which information on energy use in the buildings in Uptown Charlotte is collected and displayed on displays in lobbies and public areasCollaborators include Duke Energy, the utility, Charlotte Centre City Partners, Cisco, US Green Building Council and others Goal is to reduce energy use in uptown area of Charlotte by 20% in five years
Another huge opportunity – big dataChicago and NYC have released energy data on a block by block, building by building basisThey are encouraging people to use that data to come up with new solutions to reduce energy use Chicago recently had a ‘hackathon’ where everybody who was interested in for a weekend to hack the data and try to come up with new solutions.
ManufacturingSome potential numbers from RMIHeard earlier about 3D printing earlier – it is not usually thought about as an energy efficiency play but it is – it has massive implicationsOther manufacturing technologies such as near net shape fabrication will also make a huge difference to energy efficiency
This is the Aluminium frame of the Jaguar XJ – I should say I am a big fan of JaguarsHenry Ford quote from 1924 is still relevant40% weight savings possible through aluminiumPotential for fuel savingEvery 10% weight reduction reduces energy use by 7% (MIT study)Corresponding energy savingNot only aluminum but also compositesStill massive potential
A transportation example of intelligent energy efficiency – Twin Cities metropolitan area – Minneapolis and St Paul (picture isn’t St Paul!)Initiative includes several intelligent transport solutions includePriority lanes toll system with differential pricingPrices based on occupancyDynamic message system showing availability of lanes, toll rates and travel speeds- real time transit information including next bus arrival information
Shipping – a traditional industry – is now getting EEThis tanker form Stena saves 10-15% fuel use and various new technologies can improve on thatIMO has new design standardsSome large customers saying they will only rent the most efficient shipsShipping emits more CO2 than aviation but you don’t hear about it so often as it is not so visible
Very famous aircraft, in the news for the wrong reasons – battery technology choice and containment wasn’t right But rationale of design in largely about fuel burn21% savings have been proven in operations on early models whch were over weight compared to what they will beLater aircraft will be lighter and hence save even more
Big opportunities in the energy industry whether it be gas or elecOpportunities to improve efficiency of power generation by different techniques, turbine cleaning, better controls etcetc
So it is true there is money lying on the floor, and flying out through the windows everywhere you look.
I like to show you the big money in EEAs an aside Boulton & Watt who are pictured here – made their money by implementing energy efficiiency– the Watt steam engine was much more efficient than the existing technology and saved coal mine owners a fortune. Bolton & Watt had the first example of shared savings deal – they took a % of the savings over a long term contract.
Finally, at the risk of talking my own book, here it is!My new book is out in Sept, if you see me you can order it now and get 35% discountI recommend it
Thank you to EcoSummit for inviting meThank you for listening
