CCXG Forum, September 2020, Laura Cozzi

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Global energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to fall nearly 8% in 2020 due to reduced coal use during the COVID-19 pandemic, representing the largest drop ever. While a rebound is expected post-crisis, low-carbon energy sources surpassed coal for the first time in 50 years as the leading source of electricity generation in 2019. The report proposes a Sustainable Recovery Plan investing $1 trillion over 3 years to boost economic growth while transitioning to cleaner energy. The plan could create or save 9 million jobs annually from 2021-2023 and make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions.

Environment

IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Gt
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2Gt
CO2 emissions drop the most ever due to the COVID-19 crisis
Global energy-related CO2 emissions are set to fall nearly 8% in 2020 to their lowest level in a decade.
Reduced coal use contributes the most. Experience suggests that a large rebound is likely post crisis.
Global energy-related CO2 emissions and annual change, 1900-2020
Second
oil shock
Financial
crisis
World
War II
Great
Depression

IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Low-carbon sources extend their lead in the power mix
For the first time in 50 years, low carbon technologies overtook coal as the leading source of electricity in 2019,
and they are moving further ahead in 2020.
Global generation shares from coal and low-carbon sources, 1971-2020
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Coal
Low-carbon
Solar PV
Wind
Other renewables
Nuclear

IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
A plan for a Sustainable Recovery post Covid-19
The Sustainable Recovery Plan provides an integrated approach to support economic recovery and
jobs while improving the resiliency & sustainability of the energy system
Sustainable
Recovery Plan
goals
Electricity
33%
Efficiency
40%
Other
27%
$1 trillion for
three years

IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
The energy sector could be a major driving force for economic growth
Additional growth in real GDP from the Sustainable Recovery Plan
% increase in GDP
Emerging economies
World
Advanced economies
1%
2%
3%
4%
2020 2021 2022 2023
An assessment conducted in co-operation with the International Monetary Fund shows that the Sustainable
Recovery Plan would boost average annual global GDP growth by 1.1% to 2023.

IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Other
Efficiency
Electricity
Jobs at risk
With 6 million jobs that could be permanently lost due to the crisis, the plan could create or save some
9 million jobs in every year between 2021 and 2023 with most being in efficiency and in power.
A Sustainable Recovery Plan creates new jobs
Million jobs
Energy-related jobs at risk due to Covid-19 in 2020 and new jobs created by the Sustainable Recovery Plan
With 6 million jobs that could be permanently lost due to the crisis, the plan could create or save some
9 million jobs in every year between 2021 and 2023
- 10
- 5
0
5
10
2020
2022 20232021
Solar, wind, etc.
Electricity grids
Efficient vehicles
Buildings efficiency
Industry
Electric vehicles
Transport infrastructure
Emerging technologies
Fuels

IEA 2020. All rights reserved.
Energy systems would shift towards structurally cleaner ones
The plan would make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions, reducing GHG emissions by 4.5 billion
tonnes and putting them on a path towards achieving long-term climate goals, including the Paris Agreement.
Energy-sector GHG emissions
Without a sustainable
recovery
With a sustainable
recovery
Gt CO2-eq
30
32
34
36
38
40
2005 2010 2015 2020 2023

Energy efficiency and renewables contribute the most to reducing CO2 emissions, providing 42% and 34% respectively of emissions reductions needed by 2040 according to the Sustainable Development Scenario. However, energy intensity improvements have slowed in recent years due to weaker energy efficiency policies and growth in energy-intensive economies, a trend that must be reversed. Additionally, investment in renewable, nuclear and grid technologies needs to accelerate to achieve long-term emissions reduction goals, as 2018 investment was one-third below required levels. Coal power plants currently produce one-third of CO2 emissions, with half being less than 15 years old, so policies are urgently needed to support technologies like CCUS to transition existing coal infrastructure to sustainable pathways.

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