Everyone has their method of selecting playoff teams and the NFL champion prior to the star of the season. Some use film study while others trust their gut. Others stick with their hometown team or choose using uniform color. This report will use buzz in social media to predict the outcome of the 2010 season.

1. The Passion of the Fan A deep dive into preseason hype and outlook for the 2010 NFL season across the Social Web Jeff Esposito JeffEsposito.com

2. Table of Contents The Passion of the Fan ………………………………………………………………….3 Methodology …..................................................................................4 State of the fan …………………………………………………………………………….7 AFC East ……………………………………………………………………………………..12 Buffalo Bills …………………………………………………………………………………14 Miami Dolphins …………………………………………………………………………..16 New England Patriots…………………………………………………………………..18 New York Jets ……………………………………………………………………………..20 AFC North …………………………………………………………………………………..22 Baltimore Ravens ………………………………………………………………………..24 Cincinnati Bengals ……………………………………………………………………….26 Cleveland Browns ……………………………………………………………………….28 Pittsburgh Steelers ……………………………………………………………………..30 AFC South ……………………………………………………………………………………32 Houston Texans ………………………………………………………………………….34 Indianapolis Colts ………………………………………………………………………..36 Jacksonville Jaguars …………………………………………………………………….38 Tennessee Titans .....……………………………………………………………………40 AFC West …………………………………………………………………………………….42 Denver Broncos ………………………………………………………………………….44 Kansas City Chiefs ………………………………………………………………….……46 Oakland Raiders …………………………………………………………………….……48 San Diego Chargers ………………………………………………………………….…50 NFC East ……………………………………………………………………………………..52 Dallas Cowboys …………………………………………………………………………..54 New York Giants………………………………………………………………………….56 Philadelphia Eagles ……………………………………………………………………..58 Washington Redskins ………………………………………………………………….60 NFC North …………………………………………………………………………………..62 Chicago Bears ……………………………………………………………………………..64 Detroit Lions …………………………………………………………………………….…66 Green Bay Packers ……………………………………………………………………...68 Minnesota Vikings ………………………………………………………………………70 NFC South …………………………………………………………………………………..72 Atlanta Falcons …………………………………………………………………………..74 Carolina Panthers ……………………………………………………………………….76 New Orleans Saints …………………………………………………………………….78 Tampa Bay Buccaneers …………………………………………………………….…80 NFC West ………………………………………………………………………………......82 Arizona Cardinals …………………………………………………………………….....84 St. Louis Rams …………………………………………………………………………….86 San Francisco 49ers …………………………………………………………………….88 Seattle Seahawks ………………………………………………………………………..90 AFC Playoff Teams ………………………………………………………………………93 NFC Playoff Teams …………………………………………………………..............94 NFL Champion …………………………………………………………………………….95 About this report …..........................................................................97 2

3. The Passion of the Fan The National Football League is the premier professional sports league in the United States and draws a captive of fans audience across the country who live and die with each play of their team. In the past the “passion” of fans was judged by attendance, jersey sales and fan presence in opposing stadiums. The general buzz around a team was also generated by local and national media outlets. Social media has changed that – as the fans’ voices can be heard just as loud and clear as a pundit on a pregame show. This report takes a deep dive into the fan-generated buzz for all 32 teams, predicting the divisional and Super Bowl champions based on the fans’ passion. May sound crazy, but you never know... 3

5. Mediums included:

6. Blogs

7. Forums

8. Traditional news sites

9. Twitter

11. Picking the winners 6 Unlike many methods for season predictions, I used social buzz to select division, conference and championship game winners. My formula equally weighs five variables to predict the top teams in each division, conference and league. These variables include conversation share, positive conversation share (mentions sentimented positive by the tool), negative conversation share (mentions sentimented negative by the tool), SIM score and Net Promoter Score. To select division winners, I ranked each variable on a 1-4 scale (with negative conversation share counting negative 1-4) with the top team receiving four points while the lowest team received one point. The team with the most points is my predicted division champion. In the case of a tie, the overall mentions served as a tiebreaker. Wild Card teams were selected as the two teams with the next highest scores in each conference. In the case of a tie, remaining teams were re-scored against each other. I determined my conference championship picks in a similar fashion with a 1-6 scale and the world champion was determined on a 1-2 scale. In the case of a tie in the championship round the tie-breaker was the team with the overall highest score from all three rounds combined.

12. State of the Fan Heading into the 2010 season, the NFL had an aggregate NPS of 95%. The highest rating for an individual team was 99.98% (St. Louis) and the low was 88.9% (NY Jets). During the month I collected data, there were 527,419 social mentions of the league’s teams. Ninety-four percent were neutral, 4% were positive and just 2% negative. 7

13. State of the Fan Top Mentioned Teams San Diego Denver Dallas NY Jets Minnesota Least Mentioned Teams Jacksonville Tampa Bay Kansas City Atlanta Carolina Top Positive Mentions NY Jets New Orleans Dallas NY Giants Cleveland Top Negative Mentions NY Jets NY Giants Cleveland Cincinnati Baltimore 8

14. State of the Fan Top SIM Score San Diego Denver Dallas Minnesota NY Jets Low SIM Score Jacksonville Kansas City Tampa Bay Atlanta Carolina Top NPS St. Louis Jacksonville San Diego Carolina Denver Low NPS NY Jets Cleveland Cincinnati Baltimore NY Giants 9

15. Overall conversation share 10

16. Ready to see how your team fared? 11

18. Miami Dolphins

19. New England Patriots

20. New York Jets12

21. AFC East Buzz Rankings Conversation Share Conference Champion: New York Jets* Team Rankings New York Jets - 9 Miami Dolphins - 9 Buffalo Bills - 8 New England Patriots – 5 For an explanation of the scoring, see page 6 NPS Bills – 96% Dolphins – 96% Patriots – 95% Jets – 89% SIM Score Jets – 271.055 Bills – 245.282 Dolphins – 217.763 Patriots – 203.564 Positive Conversation Share Jets – 48% Patriots - 25% Dolphins– 16% Bills – 12% Negative Conversation Share Jets – 54% Bills – 16% Patriots – 16% Dolphins – 14% *= Jets win conference via overall mention tiebreaker. 13

22. Buffalo Bills 14

23. Buffalo Bills As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010. 15

24. Miami Dolphins 16

25. Miami Dolphins 17 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

26. New England Patriots 18

27. New England Patriots 19 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

28. New York Jets 20

29. New York Jets 21 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

31. Cincinnati Bengals

32. Cleveland Browns

33. Pittsburgh Steelers 22

34. AFC North Buzz Rankings Conversation Share Conference Champion: Pittsburgh Steelers Team Rankings Pittsburgh Steelers – 12 Baltimore Ravens – 7 Cleveland Browns – 7 Cincinnati Bengals - 4 For an explanation of the scoring, see page 6 NPS Steelers – 97% Ravens – 92% Bengals – 92% Browns – 91% SIM Score Steelers – 265.054 Browns– 228.373 Ravens – 222.296 Bengals – 215.261 Positive Conversation Share Browns – 30% Ravens – 28% Bengals – 22% Steelers – 19% Negative Conversation Share Browns – 31% Bengals – 28% Ravens – 27% Steelers – 14% 23

35. Baltimore Ravens 24

36. Baltimore Ravens 25 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

37. Cincinnati Bengals 26

38. Cincinnati Bengals 27 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

39. Cleveland Browns 28

40. Cleveland Browns 29 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

41. Pittsburgh Steelers 30

42. Pittsburgh Steelers 31 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

44. Indianapolis Colts

45. Jacksonville Jaguars

46. Tennessee Titans32

47. AFC South Buzz Rankings Conversation Share Conference Champion: Indianapolis Colts Team Rankings Indianapolis Colts – 12 Tennessee Titans – 7 Jacksonville Jaguars – 6 Houston Texans – 6 For an explanation of the scoring, see page 6 NPS Jaguars – 99% Colts – 97% Texans – 95% Titans – 95% SIM Score Colts – 330.792 Titans – 245.719 Texans – 227.021 Jaguars – 157.688 Positive Conversation Share Colts – 31% Texans – 28% Titans – 28% Jaguars – 13% Negative Conversation Share Titans – 36% Texans – 32% Colts - 26% Jaguars – 6% 33

48. Houston Texans 34

49. Houston Texans 35 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

50. Indianapolis Colts 36

51. Indianapolis Colts 37 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

52. Jacksonville Jaguars 38

53. Jacksonville Jaguars 39 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

54. Tennessee Titans 40

55. Tennessee Titans 41 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

57. Kansas City Chiefs

58. Oakland Raiders

59. San Diego Chargers42

60. AFC West Buzz Rankings Conversation Share Conference Champion: San Diego Chargers Team Rankings San Diego Chargers – 12 Denver Broncos – 7 Oakland Raiders – 7 Kansas City Chiefs - 3 For an explanation of the scoring, see page 6 NPS Chargers – 98% Broncos – 97% Raiders – 94% Chiefs – 93% SIM Score Chargers – 383.065 Broncos – 343.502 Raiders – 160.243 Chiefs – 80.885 Positive Conversation Share Raiders – 30% Broncos – 28% Chargers 24% Chiefs – 18% Negative Conversation Share Broncos – 31% Raiders - 30% Chargers – 22% Chiefs – 18% 43

61. Denver Broncos 44

62. Denver Broncos 45 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

63. Kansas City Chiefs 46

64. Kansas City Chiefs 47 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

65. Oakland Raiders 48

66. Oakland Raiders 49 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

67. San Diego Chargers 50

68. San Diego Chargers 51 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

70. New York Giants

71. Philadelphia Eagles

72. Washington Redskins52

73. NFC East Buzz Rankings Conversation Share Conference Champion: Dallas Cowboys Team Rankings Dallas Cowboys – 13 Washington Redskins – 9 New York Giants - 6 Philadelphia Eagles - 4 For an explanation of the scoring, see page 6 NPS Cowboys – 97% Redskins – 96% Eagles – 93% Giants – 93% SIM Score Cowboys – 331.928 Redskins – 249.564 Giants – 218.019 Eagles – 150.167 Positive Conversation Share Cowboys – 33% Giants – 33% Eagles – 21% Redskins – 13% Negative Conversation Share Giants – 35% Cowboys – 23% Eagles – 22% Redskins – 20% 53

74. Dallas Cowboys 54

75. Dallas Cowboys 55 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

76. New York Giants 56

77. New York Giants 57 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

78. Philadelphia Eagles 58

79. Philadelphia Eagles 59 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

80. Washington Redskins 60

81. Washington Redskins 61 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

83. Detroit Lions

84. Green Bay Packers

85. Minnesota Vikings62

86. NFC North Buzz Rankings Conversation Share Conference Champion: Detroit Lions Team Rankings Detroit Lions – 10 Minnesota Vikings – 9 Green Bay Packers – 8 Chicago Bears - 6 For an explanation of the scoring, see page 6 NPS Lions – 95% Vikings – 95% Bears – 95% Packers – 94% SIM Score Vikings – 316.675 Packers – 215.975 Lions – 211.233 Bears – 205.160 Positive Conversation Share Packers – 32% Lions – 24% Bears – 22% Vikings – 22% Negative Conversation Share Vikings – 33% Packers – 25% Bears – 23% Lions – 20% 63

87. Chicago Bears 64

88. Chicago Bears 65 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

89. Detroit Lions 66

90. Detroit Lions 67 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

91. Green Bay Packers 68

92. Green Bay Packers 69 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

93. Minnesota Vikings 70

94. Minnesota Vikings 71 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

96. Carolina Panthers

97. New Orleans Saints

98. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 72

99. NFC South Buzz Rankings Conversation Share Conference Champion: Carolina Panthers Team Rankings Carolina Panthers - 12 New Orleans Saints - 9 Atlanta Falcons - 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 4 For an explanation of the scoring, see page 6 NPS Panthers – 98% Buccaneers – 97% Falcons – 97% Saints – 95% SIM Score Saints – 355.946 Panthers – 218.008 Falcons – 213.696 Buccaneer – 176.319 Positive Conversation Share Saints – 57% Panthers – 16% Falcons – 14% Buccaneers – 13% Negative Conversation Share Saints – 50% Falcons – 20% Buccaneers – 15% Panthers – 14% 73

100. Atlanta Falcons 74

101. Atlanta Falcons 75 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

102. Carolina Panthers 76

103. Carolina Panthers 77 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

104. New Orleans Saints 78

105. New Orleans Saints 79 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

106. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 80

107. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 81 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

109. St. Louis Rams

110. San Francisco 49ers

111. Seattle Seahawks82

112. NFC West Buzz Rankings Conversation Share Conference Champion: San Francisco 49ers Team Rankings San Francisco 49ers – 12 Arizona Cardinals – 9 St. Louis Rams – 6 Seattle Seahawks - 4 For an explanation of the scoring, see page 6 NPS Rams – 100% 49ers – 96% Cardinals – 96% Seahawks – 95% SIM Score 49ers – 274.336 Cardinals – 242.024 Seahawks – 228.949 Rams – 222.035 Positive Conversation Share 49ers – 44% Seahawks – 31% Cardinals – 24% Rams – 1% Negative Conversation Share Seahawks – 36% San Francisco – 32% Cardinals – 31% Rams – 0% 83

113. Arizona Cardinals 84

114. Arizona Cardinals 85 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

115. St. Louis Rams 86

116. St. Louis Rams 87 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

117. San Francisco 49ers 88

118. San Francisco 49ers 89 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

119. Seattle Seahawks 90

120. Seattle Seahawks 91 As per Twitter's restrictions: historical Twitter data is a sampled set that represents an approximate percentage of Twitter volume: 5% from 7/15/2010 to 8/30/2010, and 10% as of 8/31/2010.

121. 2010 Playoff picks 92

122. AFC Playoff Teams East Champ – New York Jets* North Champ – Pittsburgh Steelers South Champ – Indianapolis Colts West Champ – San Diego Chargers Wild Card – Miami Dolphins Wild Card – Denver Broncos* AFC Champ – San Diego Chargers 93 *= NY Jets named division champs via overall mentions tiebreaker, Denver Broncos earned a playoff berth via the rescoring tiebreaker

123. NFC Playoff Teams East Champ – Dallas Cowboys North Champ – Detroit Lions South Champ – Carolina Panthers West Champ – San Francisco 49ers Wild Card – Washington Redskins* Wild Card – Minnesota Vikings* NFC Champ – Dallas Cowboys 94 * = Washington and Minnesota earned Wild Card berths through the rescoring tiebreaker

124. And the winner is… 95

125. San Diego Chargers Using the social buzz surrounding the NFL, the San Diego Chargers will defeat the Dallas Cowboys in the 2010 Super Bowl. The final score using the metrics listed on page six has the Chargers finishing the game with a score of six to the Cowboys’ three. 96

126. About this report This report was compiled using Scout Labs. The account was provided to me for research purposes. The NFL and Social Media are two things that I am passionate about. Like many football fans, I am excited for the start of the season and have had discussions and debates in the social Web. I did the research for this report to see if this online passion and buzz had any relation to on-field performance. I figured using numbers was a better predicting tool than saying I like this team or mascot X is tougher than mascot Z. This report was not done in conjunction with the league or any member teams. All images used in this report were from PicApp under their terms and conditions. All team names and league marks appearing in this document are trademarks or registered trademarks of the National Football League or individual teams. 97

127. About this report About Jeff Esposito Jeff Esposito is a public relations professional with a passion for social and conversational media and writes on both topics on JeffEsposito.com. He earned his PR stripes working in the professional sports world. Jeff is currently a public relations manager at Vistaprint, a leading online provider of professional marketing products and services to micro businesses. He is responsible for the day-to-day management, development and growth of the company's social media properties and campaigns. He is also active in a number of other communications areas for Vistaprint, including marketing communications and PR. The information and findings are from Jeff Esposito and do not reflect the opinions of his employer or Scout Labs. If you would like more information on this report or would like to contact me, please visit: http://jeffesposito.com/about/ 98