The document discusses the rise of 3-point shots in NBA basketball, noting they now account for 34% of total points, but 2-point shots remain dominant at over 50%. It analyzes the relationship between shooting performance (2-points vs. 3-points) and team success, indicating that 2-point shots have a stronger correlation with overall team performance. The document concludes that while 3-point shooting is becoming more prevalent, it is not yet the primary determinant of a team's success.

1. Is the 3-point-game
taking over NBA basketball?
November 22, 2021
Gaetan Lion

2. 3-pts shots as a % of total points scored have
risen quite dramatically from less than 3% in the
early 80s to 34% in the most recent two seasons.
However, 2-pts shots still account for over 50% of
total points.
Based on current trends, you would expect that
2-pts shots will still account for a much greater %
of total points scored vs. 3-pts shots for the
foreseeable future.
Is the 3-points-game taking over NBA basketball? … Not yet.
2
Data source for this entire presentation is:
basketball-reference.com

3. Has NBA shooting gotten better over the years?
… not much if at all…
Free throws (1 pt) success rate has remained nearly
perfectly flat since beginning of time series in 1979
at slightly under 80%.
3-pts success rate has remained pretty flat at
around 35% since the mid 90s.
2-pts success rate is the only category that has seen
a mild increase in success rate. However, the
increase is a bit more pronounced if we focus on the
period from the 1997 – 1998 season onward.
3

4. The number of 3-points attempts per game has risen dramatically
The 3-points scoring was introduced in the NBA in
1979. So, it took a while for the players and
coaches to adjust their skills and strategies to
leverage the benefit of this 3-points line.
With time, the NBA has more aggressively adopted
3-points shooting. In the most recent two seasons,
average number of 3-points shot attempts per
game was 35 or above. Meanwhile, that number
remained under 20 until 2013- 2014.
4

5. Is 3-points skill a predictor of a team’s performance?
Focusing on the 2020-2021 season data
Whether you look at number of points scored, or team
rankings, or Z values (scaling number of points by number of
standard deviation above or below the NBA average), the
results are very much the same.
The 2-pts performance has a much higher correlation with
the overall team performance than the 3-pts performance.
The 2-pts performance explains twice as much of the
variance between team performance than the 3-pts
performance does (R Square values).
5

6. During the 2020 – 2021 NBA season, the top
10 teams in 2-pts shots had much higher
average rankings at 10.5 vs. the top 10
teams in 3-pts shots.
However, 2-pts shots performance is not
that deterministic either. The Spurs, number
1 on 2-pts shots rankings, are only 17 out of
30 overall.
Look at the Bucks, they are outstanding in 3-
pts shots, only second to the record breaking
Warriors. But, in overall ranks the Bucks are
only 16 out of 30.
The Timberwolves who come in a close 3d in
3-pts shots, are a distant 22nd in overall
rankings.
Is 3-points skill a predictor of a team’s performance? A second look…
Focusing on the 2020-2021 season data and focusing on the top 10 overall
6

7. Difference in ranks between 3-pts and 2-pts when focusing on the top 10 NBA teams
7
We used the nonparametric Mann-Whitney test to evaluate whether the difference in average and
median ranks between 3-pts and 2-pts is statistically significant. When we focus on the Median that
reduces the influence of outliers such as the Warriors that are ranked 1st overall and also in 3-pts rank,
the difference between the two is pretty large at 4 ranks (Median is 13.5 for the 3-pts rank and 9.5 for
the 2-pts rank associated with a 2-tail p value of 0.13… not far from statistical significance at the alpha
0.10 threshold).

8. Relationship between overall rank and 3-pts rank looking at all 30 NBA
teams during 2020 – 2021 season
8
If the 3-pts ranking was identical to the overall
ranking, the regression trend line (red line would be
on a perfect diagonal). And, the regression equation
would be equal to:
3-pts rank = 1.0(Overall rank) + 0.
And, R Square would be equal to 1.
Instead, the 3-pts rank indicates it has a really weak
relationship with the Overall rank, as its Overall rank
coefficient at 0.39 is closer to 0 than 1. If it was 0, it
would indicate there is no relationship between the
two. The slope of the red regression line would be 0.
The regression line would be horizontal. As is, this
regression line is not that far off from indicating there
is little to no relationship between the two rankings.

9. Comparing the 3-pts ranking vs. Overall ranking with the
2-pts ranking vs. Overall ranking
9
y = 0.5396x + 7.1895
R² = 0.2922
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2
pts.
Ranking
Overall Ranking
Rank: Overall vs. 2-pts ranking
As shown, the 2-pts ranking vs. Overall ranking relationship (right hand graph) is a lot stronger than the 3-pts one
(on the left and also on the previous slide).

10. Can the Warriors survive a post-Curry era?
10
Reviewing the data, it
appears that they
may be able to do
just fine. 2-pts still
very much are the
bread-and-butter of
the game. When
Curry does not play
well, the Warriors
score fewer 3-pts
points and more 2-
pts points.
When Curry scores 40 or even 50 points per game, it makes for really great headline. But, for the Warriors whether Curry
scores 40 points, or if Curry does not play well, another two or even three different team mates cumulatively score these
40 points that Curry would have scored makes no difference for the team. As we speak that is exactly what happened last
night as described in the Marin IJ article.

11. How to counter Stephen Curry?
Let’s say in a reasonable game Stephen Curry throws 11 3-pts
shots attempts, and succeeds 40% of the time, resulting in
scoring about 13 points.
The opposite team can counter Curry’s 3-pts performance by
either raising their 2-pts success rate to 60%. Or they can
counter partly by making one or more two 2-pts shots
attempts vs. Curry’s 3-pts attempts. All above, appears very
feasible for an NBA team.
This exact same logic can be applied on how the Warriors can
compensate for Curry when he is not playing.
I have explored much more complicated model structures with little success. At the end of the day, this
very simple format seemed the most informative.
11

12. Stephen Curry’s 3-pts record
12
This serves as a good reference for the simple
model presented on the previous slide.

13. Stephen Curry Section:
How good is Curry?
How many good years left does he have?
13

14. How good is Curry? Looking at 3-pts success rate…
Except for the 2019 – 2020, when Curry suffered a severe left-hand injury, his record in 3-pts success rate has
been much superior to the NBA average. Curry’s skill superiority is also in his ability to score baskets from close
to mid-court and beyond (“from way downtown”). So, Curry has a much higher success rate while shooting
often from far greater distance than other players. That’s this combination that makes Curry a magician. This
amazing feat (scoring from great distance) unfortunately does not leave any footprint in the scoring data. 14

15. 15
Given that Stephen Curry is still active and has a few good years left (33 years old), he is just about assured to pass
Ray Allen, and stand in first place.
James Harden, in 4th position, is still active (32 years old). And, is also likely to rise up the rankings.

16. 16
The main point from this first table is that contemporary
players such as Curry and Harden score many more 3-pts
baskets per game than the other three players that belong
to older generations of the game.
Directionally, exact same explanatory narrative as above.
The contemporary players make so many more 3-pts
attempts. That’s why they are so much more productive in
scoring 3-pts baskets.
When it comes down to precision (success rate), Kyle
Korver towers over the field. But, as shown this superior
performance in this one area really does not matter,
because Korver went for so fewer 3-pts shots than the
contemporary players (Curry and Harden).

17. How players performance holds up with age: 3-pts success per game
17
The figures are shown as an index that uses the
average over the ages ranging from 28 to 33 years
old. And, it pegs this average at a value of 100.
Kyle Korver’s performance remained strong and
consistent until retirement. Reggie Miller’s
performance held up very well until 36 years old.
Ray Allen’s performance dropped abruptly at 34 years old, but remained steady at that level or better until retirement.

18. How players performance holds up with age: 3-pts success rate
18
As shown, the players 3-pts success rate holds
up very well as they age

19. How many good years left does Curry have?
19
Based on the aging track record of Allen, Miller, and Korver we could expect Curry to play at near top form until
36 years old. That’s another 3 seasons, as he is 33 years old. If he remains healthy and uninjured, he could still
be a relatively formidable 3-pts shooter at 37 or even 38 years old.