This study reviews the increasing prevalence of 3-shot points within the NBA. It also compares the record of the 5 top players in NBA history in 3-pt shots. It also considers how many good years left Curry may have.
Sacramento's population projections for the State of California are already 1.4 million too high only 3 years into the forecast by 2023. The reason is Sacramento's unrealistic migration assumption. This analysis tests in detail how and why this projection went so wrong.
This study analyzes the temperature history of 24 American cities going back to 1895. Using a LOESS model, it forecasts prospective temperature increases over the next 40 years and out to 2100. And, it compares the 2100 forecast with the NOAA model(s). This comparison uncovers serious deficiencies within the NOAA model(s), as it does not fit the historical data well; and it does not differentiate much forecasts between various cities.
Compact Letter Display (CLD). How it worksGaetan Lion
Compact Letter Display (CLD) renders ANOVA & Tukey HSD testing a lot easier to interpret. It readily ranks and differentiate the tested variables. With CLD you can readily identify the variables that are statistically dissimilar vs. the ones that are similar.
This study compares the benefits and the funding for CalPERS pensions vs. Social Security. It also looks in more detail on the financial burden of CalPERS pensions on the Marin Municipal Water District.
This presentation includes two explanatory models to attempt to predict recessions. The first one is a logistic regression. The second one is a deep neural network (DNN). Both use the same set of independent variables: the velocity of money, inflation, the yield curve, and the stock market. As usual, the DNN fits the historical data a bit better than the simpler logistic regression. But, when it comes to testing or predicting, both models are pretty much even.
Objective:
Studying trends in US inequality along several social dimensions including education, ethnicity, percentiles, and work status. We don’t explore gender because it is not disaggregated within the mentioned data that focuses on families (fairly similar to households).
Data source:
US Government Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF) data. The SCF aggregates financial data on US families every three years. And, it discloses a time series from 1989 to 2019.
The model development two objectives are:
1) To explain home prices using demographic explanatory variables; and
2) To benchmark the accuracy of OLS regressions vs. DNN models.
For home prices, we used county level data from Zillow. For the explanatory variables, we used data from GEOFRED.
This analysis focuses on population aging, population age categories in % (age pyramids), and overall population growth. It looks at various geographic units (countries, continents, regions, World) from 1950 to the Present (2019 & 2020). And, it looks at projections out to 2100.
Africa is an outlier to the overall global aging; its population growth (historical & projected) is far faster than for other major regions.
We are going to analyze several of the major cryptocurrencies as an asset class. And, we are going to address several related questions:
Do they provide diversification benefits relative to the stock market (S&P 500)?
How do their diversification benefits compare with Gold’s diversification benefit vs. the stock market?
Do cryptocurrencies provide diversification benefits when you really need it… during market downturns?
Are cryptocurrencies truly “digital Gold”? Do they behave in a similar way given that their supply is constrained (supposedly in a similar way as Gold is)?
We will test whether :
a) Sequential Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) can predict the stock market (S&P 500) better than OLS regression;
b) DNNs using smooth Rectified Linear activation functions perform better than the ones using Sigmoid (Logit) activation functions.
Can Treasury Inflation Protected Securities predict Inflation?Gaetan Lion
We look at the spread between Treasuries and TIPS to figure out how effective such observations were in predicting actual inflation several years down the road.
Sacramento's population projections for the State of California are already 1.4 million too high only 3 years into the forecast by 2023. The reason is Sacramento's unrealistic migration assumption. This analysis tests in detail how and why this projection went so wrong.
This study analyzes the temperature history of 24 American cities going back to 1895. Using a LOESS model, it forecasts prospective temperature increases over the next 40 years and out to 2100. And, it compares the 2100 forecast with the NOAA model(s). This comparison uncovers serious deficiencies within the NOAA model(s), as it does not fit the historical data well; and it does not differentiate much forecasts between various cities.
Compact Letter Display (CLD). How it worksGaetan Lion
Compact Letter Display (CLD) renders ANOVA & Tukey HSD testing a lot easier to interpret. It readily ranks and differentiate the tested variables. With CLD you can readily identify the variables that are statistically dissimilar vs. the ones that are similar.
This study compares the benefits and the funding for CalPERS pensions vs. Social Security. It also looks in more detail on the financial burden of CalPERS pensions on the Marin Municipal Water District.
This presentation includes two explanatory models to attempt to predict recessions. The first one is a logistic regression. The second one is a deep neural network (DNN). Both use the same set of independent variables: the velocity of money, inflation, the yield curve, and the stock market. As usual, the DNN fits the historical data a bit better than the simpler logistic regression. But, when it comes to testing or predicting, both models are pretty much even.
Objective:
Studying trends in US inequality along several social dimensions including education, ethnicity, percentiles, and work status. We don’t explore gender because it is not disaggregated within the mentioned data that focuses on families (fairly similar to households).
Data source:
US Government Survey of Consumer Finance (SCF) data. The SCF aggregates financial data on US families every three years. And, it discloses a time series from 1989 to 2019.
The model development two objectives are:
1) To explain home prices using demographic explanatory variables; and
2) To benchmark the accuracy of OLS regressions vs. DNN models.
For home prices, we used county level data from Zillow. For the explanatory variables, we used data from GEOFRED.
This analysis focuses on population aging, population age categories in % (age pyramids), and overall population growth. It looks at various geographic units (countries, continents, regions, World) from 1950 to the Present (2019 & 2020). And, it looks at projections out to 2100.
Africa is an outlier to the overall global aging; its population growth (historical & projected) is far faster than for other major regions.
We are going to analyze several of the major cryptocurrencies as an asset class. And, we are going to address several related questions:
Do they provide diversification benefits relative to the stock market (S&P 500)?
How do their diversification benefits compare with Gold’s diversification benefit vs. the stock market?
Do cryptocurrencies provide diversification benefits when you really need it… during market downturns?
Are cryptocurrencies truly “digital Gold”? Do they behave in a similar way given that their supply is constrained (supposedly in a similar way as Gold is)?
We will test whether :
a) Sequential Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) can predict the stock market (S&P 500) better than OLS regression;
b) DNNs using smooth Rectified Linear activation functions perform better than the ones using Sigmoid (Logit) activation functions.
Can Treasury Inflation Protected Securities predict Inflation?Gaetan Lion
We look at the spread between Treasuries and TIPS to figure out how effective such observations were in predicting actual inflation several years down the road.
This analysis focuses on measures much beyond PE ratios. And, it concludes that the Stock Market is actually really cheap vs. bonds. But, it appears quite overvalued when focusing on inflation measures.
The relationship between the Stock Market and Interest RatesGaetan Lion
This is a study of the relationship between the Stock Market and Interest Rates. We review how the Stock Market has reacted when interest rates rise. We also factor the influence of other macroeconomics variables.
This is a study using historical data and forecasts of life expectancy for several countries. The data and forecasts come from the UN - Population Division. While the historical data is most interesting, the forecasts are highly optimistic as they project a linear trend way into the future. Meanwhile, those forecasts should have followed a much more realistic logarithmic curve reflecting slower increase in life expectancy as the life expectancy rises.
Will Stock Markets survive in 200 years?Gaetan Lion
This study uncovers 11 international stock markets that are already running into existing and prospective demographic and economic growth constraints. This study evaluates their respective fragile long term viability and the implications this has for the investors in such countries.
This study answers three questions:
1) Does it make a difference whether you standardize your variables before running your model or standardize the regression coefficients after you run your model?
2) Does the scale of the respective original non-standardized variables affect the resulting standardized coefficients?
3) Does using non-standardized variables vs. standardized variables have an impact when conducting regularization (Ridge Regression, LASSO)?
This analysis compares his track record vs. Manning, Montana, Marino, Brees, Favre, and Elway. At the end of this analysis, it makes extensive use of the binomial distribution to figure out how much of their respective track records are due to randomness vs. skills.
Regularization why you should avoid themGaetan Lion
Regularization models are supposed to reduce model over-fitting and improve forecasting accuracy. Very often they do just the opposite: increase model under-fitting, and decrease model forecasting accuracy. This study explains how Regularization models often fail, and how to resolve model issues with far simpler and more robust methods.
Japan vs. US comparison on numerous dimensionsGaetan Lion
This study compares Japan vs. the US on numerous dimensions including demographics (including health and education), and economics (including monetary and fiscal policies). This is to observe when Japan and the US trends are likely to converge over time.
Ukraine Euro Cup 2024 Squad Sergiy Rebrov's Selections and Prospects.docxEuro Cup 2024 Tickets
After securing their spot through the playoff route, Ukraine is gearing up for their fourth consecutive European Championship. Ukraine first qualified as hosts in 2012, but in 2016
Euro Cup fans worldwide can book Euro 2024 Tickets from our online platform www.worldwideticketsandhospitality. Fans can book Denmark Vs England Tickets on our website at discounted prices.
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Results for LtCol Thomas Jasper, Marine, for the 2010 Marine Corps Marathon held October 31, 2010, marking the 35th annual marathon known as "The People's Marathon."
An impressive finishing time of 3:46:39, placing 324th in the Male division ages 40-44.
Euro Cup fans worldwide can book Euro 2024 Tickets from our online platform www.worldwideticketsandhospitality. Fans can book Poland Vs Austria Tickets on our website at discounted prices.
Euro Cup fans worldwide can book Euro 2024 Tickets from our online platform www.worldwideticketsandhospitality. Fans can book Slovenia Vs Denmark Tickets on our website at discounted prices.
Narrated Business Proposal for the Philadelphia Eaglescamrynascott12
Slide 1:
Welcome, and thank you for joining me today. We will explore a strategic proposal to enhance parking and traffic management at Lincoln Financial Field, aiming to improve the overall fan experience and operational efficiency. This comprehensive plan addresses existing challenges and leverages innovative solutions to create a smoother and more enjoyable experience for our fans.
Slide 2:
Picture this: It’s a crisp fall afternoon, driving towards Lincoln Financial Field. The atmosphere is electric—tailgaters grilling, fans in Eagles jerseys creating a sea of green and white. The air buzzes with camaraderie and anticipation. You park, join the throng, and make your way to your seat. The stadium roars as the Eagles take the field, sending chills down your spine. Each play is a thrilling dance of strategy and skill. This is what being an Eagles fan is all about—the joy, the pride, and the shared experience.
Slide 3:
But now, the day is marred by frustration. The excitement wanes as you struggle to find a parking spot. The congestion is overwhelming, and tempers flare. The delays mean you miss the pre-game excitement, the tailgate camaraderie, and even the opening kick-off. After the game, the joy of victory or the shared solace of defeat is overshadowed by the stress of navigating out of the parking lot. The gridlock, honking horns, and endless waiting drain the energy and joy from what should have been an unforgettable experience.
Our proposal aims to eliminate these frustrations, ensuring that from arrival to departure, your experience is extraordinary. Efficient parking and smooth traffic flow are key to maintaining the high spirits and excitement that make game days special.
Slide 4:
The Philadelphia Eagles are not just a premier NFL team; they are an integral part of the community, hosting games, concerts, and various events at Lincoln Financial Field. Our state-of-the-art stadium is designed to provide a world-class experience for every attendee. Whether it's the thrill of game day, the excitement of a live concert, or the camaraderie of community events, we pride ourselves on delivering a fan-first experience and maintaining operational excellence across all our activities. Our commitment to our fans and community is unwavering, and we continuously strive to enhance every aspect of their experience, ensuring they leave with unforgettable memories.
Slide 5:
Recent trends show an increasing demand for efficient event logistics. Our customer feedback has consistently highlighted frustrations with parking and traffic. Surveys indicate that a significant number of fans are dissatisfied with the current parking situation. Comparisons with other venues like Citizens Bank Park and Wells Fargo Center reveal that we lag in terms of parking efficiency and convenience. These insights underscore the urgent need for innovation to meet and exceed fan expectations.
Slide 6:
As we delve into the intricacies of our operations, one glaring issue emer
Boletin de la I Copa Panamericana de Voleibol Femenino U17 Guatemala 2024Judith Chuquipul
holaesungusto.- Boletín final de la I Copa Panamericana de Voleibol Femenino U17 - Ciudad de Guatemala 2024 que se realizó del 27 de mayo al 01 de julio, en el Domo Polideportivo Zona 13.
Fuente: norceca.net
2. 3-pts shots as a % of total points scored have
risen quite dramatically from less than 3% in the
early 80s to 34% in the most recent two seasons.
However, 2-pts shots still account for over 50% of
total points.
Based on current trends, you would expect that
2-pts shots will still account for a much greater %
of total points scored vs. 3-pts shots for the
foreseeable future.
Is the 3-points-game taking over NBA basketball? … Not yet.
2
Data source for this entire presentation is:
basketball-reference.com
3. Has NBA shooting gotten better over the years?
… not much if at all…
Free throws (1 pt) success rate has remained nearly
perfectly flat since beginning of time series in 1979
at slightly under 80%.
3-pts success rate has remained pretty flat at
around 35% since the mid 90s.
2-pts success rate is the only category that has seen
a mild increase in success rate. However, the
increase is a bit more pronounced if we focus on the
period from the 1997 – 1998 season onward.
3
4. The number of 3-points attempts per game has risen dramatically
The 3-points scoring was introduced in the NBA in
1979. So, it took a while for the players and
coaches to adjust their skills and strategies to
leverage the benefit of this 3-points line.
With time, the NBA has more aggressively adopted
3-points shooting. In the most recent two seasons,
average number of 3-points shot attempts per
game was 35 or above. Meanwhile, that number
remained under 20 until 2013- 2014.
4
5. Is 3-points skill a predictor of a team’s performance?
Focusing on the 2020-2021 season data
Whether you look at number of points scored, or team
rankings, or Z values (scaling number of points by number of
standard deviation above or below the NBA average), the
results are very much the same.
The 2-pts performance has a much higher correlation with
the overall team performance than the 3-pts performance.
The 2-pts performance explains twice as much of the
variance between team performance than the 3-pts
performance does (R Square values).
5
6. During the 2020 – 2021 NBA season, the top
10 teams in 2-pts shots had much higher
average rankings at 10.5 vs. the top 10
teams in 3-pts shots.
However, 2-pts shots performance is not
that deterministic either. The Spurs, number
1 on 2-pts shots rankings, are only 17 out of
30 overall.
Look at the Bucks, they are outstanding in 3-
pts shots, only second to the record breaking
Warriors. But, in overall ranks the Bucks are
only 16 out of 30.
The Timberwolves who come in a close 3d in
3-pts shots, are a distant 22nd in overall
rankings.
Is 3-points skill a predictor of a team’s performance? A second look…
Focusing on the 2020-2021 season data and focusing on the top 10 overall
6
7. Difference in ranks between 3-pts and 2-pts when focusing on the top 10 NBA teams
7
We used the nonparametric Mann-Whitney test to evaluate whether the difference in average and
median ranks between 3-pts and 2-pts is statistically significant. When we focus on the Median that
reduces the influence of outliers such as the Warriors that are ranked 1st overall and also in 3-pts rank,
the difference between the two is pretty large at 4 ranks (Median is 13.5 for the 3-pts rank and 9.5 for
the 2-pts rank associated with a 2-tail p value of 0.13… not far from statistical significance at the alpha
0.10 threshold).
8. Relationship between overall rank and 3-pts rank looking at all 30 NBA
teams during 2020 – 2021 season
8
If the 3-pts ranking was identical to the overall
ranking, the regression trend line (red line would be
on a perfect diagonal). And, the regression equation
would be equal to:
3-pts rank = 1.0(Overall rank) + 0.
And, R Square would be equal to 1.
Instead, the 3-pts rank indicates it has a really weak
relationship with the Overall rank, as its Overall rank
coefficient at 0.39 is closer to 0 than 1. If it was 0, it
would indicate there is no relationship between the
two. The slope of the red regression line would be 0.
The regression line would be horizontal. As is, this
regression line is not that far off from indicating there
is little to no relationship between the two rankings.
9. Comparing the 3-pts ranking vs. Overall ranking with the
2-pts ranking vs. Overall ranking
9
y = 0.5396x + 7.1895
R² = 0.2922
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2
pts.
Ranking
Overall Ranking
Rank: Overall vs. 2-pts ranking
As shown, the 2-pts ranking vs. Overall ranking relationship (right hand graph) is a lot stronger than the 3-pts one
(on the left and also on the previous slide).
10. Can the Warriors survive a post-Curry era?
10
Reviewing the data, it
appears that they
may be able to do
just fine. 2-pts still
very much are the
bread-and-butter of
the game. When
Curry does not play
well, the Warriors
score fewer 3-pts
points and more 2-
pts points.
When Curry scores 40 or even 50 points per game, it makes for really great headline. But, for the Warriors whether Curry
scores 40 points, or if Curry does not play well, another two or even three different team mates cumulatively score these
40 points that Curry would have scored makes no difference for the team. As we speak that is exactly what happened last
night as described in the Marin IJ article.
11. How to counter Stephen Curry?
Let’s say in a reasonable game Stephen Curry throws 11 3-pts
shots attempts, and succeeds 40% of the time, resulting in
scoring about 13 points.
The opposite team can counter Curry’s 3-pts performance by
either raising their 2-pts success rate to 60%. Or they can
counter partly by making one or more two 2-pts shots
attempts vs. Curry’s 3-pts attempts. All above, appears very
feasible for an NBA team.
This exact same logic can be applied on how the Warriors can
compensate for Curry when he is not playing.
I have explored much more complicated model structures with little success. At the end of the day, this
very simple format seemed the most informative.
11
12. Stephen Curry’s 3-pts record
12
This serves as a good reference for the simple
model presented on the previous slide.
14. How good is Curry? Looking at 3-pts success rate…
Except for the 2019 – 2020, when Curry suffered a severe left-hand injury, his record in 3-pts success rate has
been much superior to the NBA average. Curry’s skill superiority is also in his ability to score baskets from close
to mid-court and beyond (“from way downtown”). So, Curry has a much higher success rate while shooting
often from far greater distance than other players. That’s this combination that makes Curry a magician. This
amazing feat (scoring from great distance) unfortunately does not leave any footprint in the scoring data. 14
15. 15
Given that Stephen Curry is still active and has a few good years left (33 years old), he is just about assured to pass
Ray Allen, and stand in first place.
James Harden, in 4th position, is still active (32 years old). And, is also likely to rise up the rankings.
16. 16
The main point from this first table is that contemporary
players such as Curry and Harden score many more 3-pts
baskets per game than the other three players that belong
to older generations of the game.
Directionally, exact same explanatory narrative as above.
The contemporary players make so many more 3-pts
attempts. That’s why they are so much more productive in
scoring 3-pts baskets.
When it comes down to precision (success rate), Kyle
Korver towers over the field. But, as shown this superior
performance in this one area really does not matter,
because Korver went for so fewer 3-pts shots than the
contemporary players (Curry and Harden).
17. How players performance holds up with age: 3-pts success per game
17
The figures are shown as an index that uses the
average over the ages ranging from 28 to 33 years
old. And, it pegs this average at a value of 100.
Kyle Korver’s performance remained strong and
consistent until retirement. Reggie Miller’s
performance held up very well until 36 years old.
Ray Allen’s performance dropped abruptly at 34 years old, but remained steady at that level or better until retirement.
18. How players performance holds up with age: 3-pts success rate
18
As shown, the players 3-pts success rate holds
up very well as they age
19. How many good years left does Curry have?
19
Based on the aging track record of Allen, Miller, and Korver we could expect Curry to play at near top form until
36 years old. That’s another 3 seasons, as he is 33 years old. If he remains healthy and uninjured, he could still
be a relatively formidable 3-pts shooter at 37 or even 38 years old.