It has been since 1918 of the spreading of the Great Influenza epidemic or the 1918 influenza pandemic (Spanish flu) that the world had never experienced the same scale of the pandemic before until the Covid-19. Both the governments and its citizen around the world have been response to the phenomenon up to their own capacities and performances. The paper will examine how the Thai grassroots can endure during the ongoing pandemic and how the government’s policies have posed significant impacts on their daily life. It’s however an investigation of an understanding by employing qualitative approach via interviewing method as the main instrument to pave the way regarding the better understanding of the phenomenon especially on how efficient the contradictory policies enacted to combat with the pandemic on one hand and to secure the economic activities on the other hand.

1. The Grassroots Covid-19 Resilience
Kan Yuenyong, Ph.D. (candidate)
GSPA, NIDA, Thailand
2022 한국행정학회 하계공동학술대회 및 국제학술대회
2022 Korean Public Administration Summer Conference
and Annual KAPA International Conference
06.22(수) ~ 06.24(금) 여수엑스포컨벤션센터
June 22 - 24, 2022 Yeosu Expo Convention center
디지털, 그린, 코로나: 대전환의 시대 행정을 고민하다
Digital,Green, COVID19: Rethinking Public Administration in the Era of Great Transformation

2. 참여학회(Participating Association)

3. Research Focus
Meta-geopolitics • Public Administration Theory and Policy Science • Governance and
Global Governance • ASEAN and Southeast Asian Study • Computational Social Science
• Agent-based Model (ABM) • Phenomenology • Complexity Theory • Scenario Planning
Current Research Project:
• Positive Governance (dissertation proposal)
• Cybernetic Governance Paradigm in Digital Era (presented in PATT’s annual
conference 2021; research funding proposal submitted)
• Modernization of Thailand
• ASEAN Centrality, Interconnectivity and Indo-Pacific Strategy
• Biodefence Preparedness Program (related to this presentation)
• Global Governance, Meta-geopolitical Risk and Economic Development Policy
Forthcoming Paper & Book
• Book: “On Geopolitics” and a translation of Sir Halford John Mackinder’s “The
Geographical Pivot of History” (in Thai)
• Book chapter: “Katechon and Cognitive Revolution: An Emergence of the 21st
Century Global Politics”, In “Handbook of Research on Current Advance and
Challenge of Borderlands, Migration, and Geopolitics”.
• Paper: “Thailand and ASEAN Centrality Geopolitics”
Kan Yuenyong, Ph.D. (Candidate)
• Cofounder and Executive Director of Siam Intelligence Unit (SIU)
• Academic Program: Doctor of Philosophy Program in Governance and
Development (International Program)
• Major: Public Policy and Development
• School: Graduate School of Public Administration (GSPA)
• University: National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA)
• Permanent member of Public Administration Association of Thailand (PAAT)
• Diploma on Quantum Computing & Programming during the QWorld Summer
School 2021, focusing on fundamentals of classical and quantum systems, using
QWorld’s introductory tutorial Bronze-Qiskit, Diploma Number: QBronze64-412
• Thailand representative in IVLP program on U.S. Foreign Policy and Decision-
Making II convened by the U.S. Department of State in U.S.A during 2018
• Contact: info@geopolitics.asia; http://www.geopolitics.asia;
http://gotoknow.org/blog/deconstruct; http://sikkha.medium.com;
http://www.twitter.com/sikkha

4. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/
(data as of June 18, 2022)
Current Global Statistics of Covid-19
I II III
IV

5. Current Thailand Statistics of Covid-19
https://web.facebook.com/thaimoph
(data as of June 18, 2022)

6. Thai-related strain Nonthaburi/61/2020 is Thailand's patient zero also the first case outside China, who is a Chinese citizen from Wuhan
traveling to Thailand at January 8 2020, and Thailand/NIH-15/2020, and Thailand's the second patient is also a Chinese citizen who
traveled to Thailand at January 13, 2020. https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

7. https://observablehq.com/@geopoliticsasia/covid-19-in-thailand (Javascript D3.js; manual data retrieval), Problem Structuring
exponential
take-off
peak
The Future Cone
His face is turned toward
the past.
The moonwalk trajectory
Problem Structuring
Phase I Phase II Phase III

8. https://www.kaggle.com/kanyuenyong/covid-19-in-thailand (Python),
automatic open data retrieval from Thailand Department of Disease Control (DDC))
exponential
take-off
peak
saturation
Problem Structuring

9. 1
2
From number to policy intervention
1. Quasi-lockdown
2. Travel restriction
3. Quarantine
4. Contact tracing
3
Integrated Administrative Body
1. Emergency Decree to replace COMMUNICABLE DISEASES ACT, B.E. 2558 (2015)
2. The Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) ศบค
3. The Center for Economic Administration (and Relief and Recovery – Post COVID-19) ศบศ
4. Policy Assets Availability? (i.e. labs, medical resources, rt-PCR kit, etc)
4

10. Decision over Economic Recession VS Health Security trade-off: Reproduction number or R0 (R-naught) vs Fatality ratio. See US Presidential Election 2020.
But we need vaccine as a final solution. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-15-4814-7_14
Safe
Dangerous
?
[This chart is based on known pathogens]
What if, we face a different kind of
viral structure? Do we have any
assurance to counter such situation?
Evaluation

11. https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries
Accuracy!
Real world results vs Season (cyclic) Expert
Why they are different?
(Global Governance Perspective)
I
I
II
III
I
II
I
II
III
I
II
III

12. Accuracy: Blending experience (from season expert) vs empirical data (RETROSPECTIVE)
Adjusting the model to conform the reality, from SIR to SEIR with vital dynamics. From single
shot to multiple shot. https://docs.idmod.org/projects/emod-hiv/en/latest/model-seir.html

13. Hammer & Dance: To buy time for an availability of Covid-19 vaccine in late 2021 - early 2022

14. 2020’s lockdown was too successful, in an expense of national economic performance

15. Policy Formulation, March 28, 2020.
GSPA
NIDA

16. Thailand has been ranked 5th place, and 1st place in Asia, in the 2021 Global Health Security Index. In 1st place are the United States,
followed by Australia, Finland and Canada.
The 2021 Global Health Security Index, released on Wednesday, ranks 195 countries according to their capacity to respond to epidemics and
pandemics, as assessed by John Hopkins Centre for Health Security, at Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health, and
experts from numerous countries.
https://www.thaipbsworld.com/thailand-ranked-5th-in-2021-global-health-security-index/ ; https://www.ghsindex.org/country/thailand/

17. Definition of the grassroots here is about the people whom do their own small venture, i.e. the
“solo” owner of the street food or running their own small mom-and-pop shop with or without
minimal number of assistance, or people whom have regular job with a small private business.

18. The 20 days moving average (20 MA) is the most appropriate index to monitor and to predict the mobility pattern of the people
2020’s lockdown was too successful, in an expense of national economic performance
2021: Delay on vaccine procurement and reluctant on new round of lockdown
2021-2022: Perception shift, thousands of infections is a new normal, stay with the Covid-19

19. Why This Paper?
• Multiple Regression Analysis and Covid-19 policy is
the contemporary agenda
• It demonstrates how to use Python to do data
wrangler, to use R to do statistical analysis, and is
enable to publish in standard academic journal
• Data source from Descartes Labs, a spinoff startup
from the Los Alamos National Laboratory
• Open Data, can be accessed at http://github.com/
descarteslabs/DL-COVID-19.
• A chance to compare between: (1) Apple mobility
trend report, (2) Google community reports, (3) Twitter
mobility report, and (4) Descartes Labs’ Mobility
report

20. Mobility data comparison on four platforms

21. Mobility data comparison on four platforms

22. Original code of Google Mobility report in Thailand is from my Kaggle:
https://www.kaggle.com/kanyuenyong/covid-19-community-mobility-reports-in-thailand,
updated version, i.e moving average, is in my local Anaconda-Jupyter platform

23. Thailand GDP growth (2017-2027f)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/332051/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-thailand/

24. The recent available vaccine technologies
Covid-19/Operation Warp Speed gao-21-319.pdf

25. https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/news/detail/954822
Thailand Self-reliance Vaccine Technology

26. Mixed Method Research Methodology
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Mixed-method-research-design-approach-Adopted-from-Creswell-2012_fig1_265164515

27. Postpositivist Epistemology in Scenario Planning/Simulation
Literature review
Expert interview
Scenario Workshop
Final Paper
Policy Implication?
Triangular method used to crosscheck the result in research proposal
[quanti-quali; quanti-scenario/(simulation); quali-scenario/(simulation)]
(low cost, not perfect, but an adequate instrument
in postpositivist paradigm)
Epistemology question: How we can ensure that
simulation & mathematical equation can represent the reality? Kant?
Normally, post-normal science will focus more on quality issues and it has been realized in
policy circles that “in complex environment issues, lacking neat solution and requiring
support from all stake holders, the quality of the decision-making process is absolutely
critical or the achievement of an effective product in decision (Ravetz: 1999)”
[Postpositivist paradigm & Post-normal Science Challenge]
Is it possible to prevent Chernobyl, Challenger, Fukushima, Covid-19?
Classic positivism cannot give a complete answer to the complexity issue.

28. Informants
The participants listed in table 1 have been observed, accessed and interviewed to assess information on
how they have spent their daily life both during and between the lockdown, the interview period is during
October 20 – November 28, 2021.

29. Three major questions
• What’s your assessment of the Covid-19 situation between 2020 and
2021
• How could you survive during the Covid-19, and what’s about the life
during the lockdown? Whether and how the government’s subsidy could
help you?
• What’s your assessment on the government?

31. Findings
• Possibility on policy late effectiveness on people’s perception (around 40-60%
satisfactory score)
• Differences between the grassroots vs the middle-class toward the government’s
subsidies (also the optimizability problem with budget)
• Grassroots have difficulties in accessing the subsidies, esp the SMEs
• High possibility on perception of government’s performance according to political
polarization. Neutral population tend to be more very rational on the performance
(i.e. Covid-19 is the global pandemic, it’s difficult for any government)
• Should start with a “small talk” to build rapport, money as incentives might have a
problem in building a rapport

32. Policy Implementation Model
Policy objective: Strike optimality between health security vs economic security
Policy strategy: Employ “pincer tactic” by enacting quasi-lockdown and administrating available vaccine
Policy evaluation: Moderate outcome, due to delay on vaccine procurement and too much dependence on tourism

33. https://isranews.org/article/isranews-other-news/107615-NIDAPoll-12.html; https://www.matichon.co.th/politics/news_2959324
According to NIDA Poll (on quarterly basis), Prayuth’s popularity has steady declined: 30.2% (Q4/2020) -> 28.79% ->
19.32% -> 17.54% -> 16.93% -> 12.67%

34. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Bangkok-governor-election-gives-Prayuth-headache

35. https://nidapoll.nida.ac.th/index

37. Future Discussion
• Biodefence vs One Health?
• Health Security Preparedness Program and Origins of Coronavirus
• Vaccine Research and Development, Strategic Stockpile of Medical Supply and Continuity of
Government (COG)
• Is Covid-19 over?
• What’s about economic recession + hyperinflation?
• Optimizability between economic security vs health security
• Political perception vs Policy evaluation; Political implication
• Forecasting vs Implementation of the Public Policy on Pandemic Containment

38. Is it over?
2022 monkeypox outbreak
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/
PIIS1473-3099%2822%2900359-0/fulltext

40. 2022 한국행정학회 하계공동학술대회 및 국제학술대회
2022 Korean Public Administration Summer Conference
and Annual KAPA International Conference
06.22(수) ~ 06.24(금) 여수엑스포컨벤션센터
June 22 - 24, 2022 Yeosu Expo Convention center
디지털, 그린, 코로나: 대전환의 시대 행정을 고민하다
Digital,Green, COVID19: Rethinking Public Administration in the Era of Great Transformation
Q&A?
END