This document provides an overview and timeline of the ongoing Ukraine crisis. It includes links to maps showing Russian troop movements near Ukraine in January 2022, reports of Russian military deployment in Belarus, and past analyses from 2015 predicting scenarios for a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. US and NATO intelligence assessments on the likelihood of a Russian invasion are referenced. The document also provides background on Ukraine's political divisions and economic differences between regions. A brief timeline outlines key events from Putin's July 2021 article on Ukrainian-Russian unity to Russia's recognition of separatist territories and invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

1. Ukraine Crisis Updates
Kan Yuenyong
(as of February 24, 2022, GMT+7)

2. https://
www.understandingwar.org/
map/russian-force-posture-
around-ukraine-btgs-
january-25-2022

4. https://mobile.twitter.com/BradLitwin1/status/1495805983460896773

5. Russian military deployment in Belarus (Maxer), per Reuters
https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1496312691530649606

6. Former Stratfor’s assessment in Russia full scale invasion (Mar, 2015)
Scenario 1: (minimum invasion), Land Bridge Scenario
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/gaming-russian-offensive

7. Former Stratfor’s assessment in Russia full scale invasion (Mar, 2015)
Scenario 2: (moderate invasion), Coastal Scenario
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/gaming-russian-offensive

8. Former Stratfor’s assessment in Russia full scale invasion (Mar, 2015)
Scenario 3: (maximum invasion), Eastern Ukraine Scenario
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/gaming-russian-offensive

9. US intelligence’s assessment on Russian invasion
https://mobile.twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1496655057600724993

10. Possible invasion route alleged by Bild and CSIS

11. https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/23-february-video-uploaded-2-hours-ago-shows-a-single-tank
A
C
B
Real Ukraine invasion (ongoing situation)

14. https://www.pngitem.com/middle/Jmmhmo_ukraine-presidential-dec-2004-vote-a-ukraine-gdp/
Ukraine Political Divide

15. https://eurasiaca.wordpress.com/2013/12/11/ukraine-trapped-between-two-worlds/
Ukraine GDP per capita by region

17. Timeline (brief)
• (July 12, 2021) Article by Vladimir Putin “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/
president/news/66181
• (December 17, 2021) Russia’s initial negotiation: (1) Agreement on measures to ensure the security of The Russian Federation
and member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en, and
(2) Treaty between The United States of America and the Russian Federation on security guarantees https://mid.ru/ru/
foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en
• (January 26, 2022) US and NATO reject Russia’s demand, the centrality of the debates is at “NATO’s open door policy”, and
revive back to pre-1997 status.
• (February 21, 2022) Putin’s address to the public, and Russia to recognize DNR and LNR, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/
president/news/67828
• (February 22, 2022) Putin submits proposal to Federation Council to approve resolution authorising use of Armed Forces
abroad. The council endorsed the proposal
• (February 23-24, 2022) UNSC and UNAG debate on the situation in the temporarily occupied territories of #Ukraine
• (February 24, 2022) DNR and LNR’s proposal to seek military support from Russia, Russia to invade Ukraine
• See more at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_war_in_Donbas_(2022)

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