McKinsey COVID-19 Auto & Mobility Consumer Insights
1. CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY
Any use of this material without specific permission of McKinsey & Company
is strictly prohibited
Updated: September 21, 2020
Results from consumer survey September 2-4, 2020
COVID-19
Auto & Mobility
Consumer Insights
2. McKinsey & Company 2
• COVID-19 is first and foremost a major humanitarian challenge. Thousands of health
professionals are battling the virus, putting their own lives at risk. Overstretched health systems will
need time and help to return to a semblance of normalcy.
• Solving the humanitarian challenge is, of course, priority #1. Much remains to be done
globally to respond and recover, from counting the humanitarian costs of the virus, to supporting
the victims and families, to finding a vaccine.
• This document is meant to help with a narrower goal: provide consumer insights during the
current COVID-19 situation. In addition to the humanitarian challenge, there are implications for
the wider economy, businesses, and employment. This document includes consumer insights from
a survey conducted between May 9-17, May 27-29, June 16-18, July 15-17 and Sept 2-4 in US,
UK, DE, FR, IT, CN, JP.
3. McKinsey & Company 3
Scope of global
COVID-19 Auto
& Mobility
Consumer
Survey
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Markets
7 global markets:
US, UK, DE, FR, IT,
CH, JP
Pulse Survey
5 Waves conducted
Wave 1: May 9-17
Wave 2: May 27-29
Wave 3: June 16-18
Wave 4: July 15-17
Wave 5: Sept 2-4
Respondents
>8k respondents per
wave
1k+ respondents per
market, thereof
1,000 mobility
participants1
400 car purchase
intenders2
Questions
20+ questions on
mobility behavior
20+ questions on car
purchase intent
10 questions on
aftersales behavior
10 questions on
screening, demogra-
phics, COVID-19
impact
1. Demographically representative sample of respondents between age 18-70
2. Consumers having planned or planning to buy/lease a car in the next 12 months
4. McKinsey & Company 4
Executive summary
Car
buying
After-
market
▪ Aftermarket continues to improve. During last month more customers did additional work vs. delayed work – outlook to
next month remains positive and stable
Mobility
▪ 52% of respondents travel less than before COVID-19; mobility slowly picking up (-20pp consumers traveling less vs. first survey)
▪ Post-COVID-19, consumers are likely to return to pre-COVID-19 habits; walking, biking, and micro-mobility might potentially become
more popular
▪ Shift to private vehicles for intercity travelling significantly large for respondents not owning a private vehicle
▪ A third of consumers values constant access to a private vehicle more than before COVID-19, esp. younger and female
consumers
▪ New and used car purchase intent recovered to -10% (up 5% vs. July) and -7% (up 3% vs. July) vs. pre-COVID-19 level; both
values represent highest results since COVID disruption
▪ Purchase intent increasing across all regions vs last survey, especially amongst higher-income households
▪ All regions except China are still looking to spend less on their car than before COVID, however, planned spent on vehicle
has improved across all geographies vs. previous waves. Respondents in US and UK are less focused on EV/PHEV and
ADAS vs. their pre-COVID-19 purchase intent, while in China the opposite holds true
▪ Average duration of delay is slowly decreasing across most markets, with half of delays ≤3 months; delays due to health
concerns keep decreasing, while economics become more relevant across all regions
▪ Share of customers buying “independently of discounts” increased across most markets, showing more robust purchase intent
▪ Larger share of consumers in US perceived higher discounts vs. previous waves. Slight decrease in Europe and Asia
▪ Digital becomes more important along the entire purchase funnel; less than a third of younger consumers prefer conducting
car sales & aftersales in person at a dealership; Respondents are even more interested in contactless services, approximately
half of respondents willing to pay extra for this service
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
5. McKinsey & Company 5
Consumer’s new car purchase intent below pre-COVID-19 levels
and increasing, aftermarket robust and mobility recovering
1.Q: Before the COVID-19 / COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to buy a new car? 2 Q: During or after the COVID-19 / COVID-19 crisis, how likely will you be to buy a new car?
3 Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?
Sampled to match gen pop 18+ years within markets; individual markets weighted based on 2019 car market size, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding
New car purchase intent1,2
Percent of respondents
Car buying Aftermarket Mobility
16%16%
Up until now
21%
58%
34%
44%
Plan for next month
Done additional
No changes
Delay
+5 +18
Changes in maintenance and repair
since beginning of COVID-193
% of respondents
Change mobility mode use
% of respondents using mode ≥ once/week
Net impact (Δ p.p. "done additional" vs "delay")
78
64
69 72 75 76 79
W5Before
crisis
Return
to
"normal
life"
W1 W2 W3 W4
37
19 23 23 25 27
37
W3W1 W2Before
crisis
W4 W5Return
to
"normal
life"
13 11 12 12 12 13 15
Be-
fore
crisis
W1 W2 W3 W4 Return
to
"normal
life"
W5
10 9 10 9 8 9
12
Be-
fore
crisis
W4W1 W5W2 W3 Return
to
"normal
life"
Private car Public transportation
Shared micromobility Car sharing
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
69
52 53
58 59 63
31
31 29
28 26
27
May
27-29
May 9-17
Very/
extremely
likely
Sep 2-4July
15-17
Before
COVID-
19
June
16-18
Likely
90
100
8583 82
86
-10%
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
7. McKinsey & Company 7
New car purchase intent -10% vs. pre-COVID-19 level (up by 5pp vs.
last wave); used car intent -7% (up by 3pp. vs. last wave)
1.Q: Before the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to buy a new car? [used]
2 Q: During or after the COVID-19 crisis, how likely will you be to buy a new car? [used]
Sampled to match gen pop 18+ years within markets; individual markets weighted based on 2019 car market size
New cars Used cars
Change in %
Car purchase intent vs. pre-COVID-19 level 1,2
Percent
69
52 53 58 59 63
31
31 29
28 26
27
May 27-29Before
COVID-19
83
June 16-18May 9-17 July 15-17
90
Sep 2-4
100
82
86 85
-10%
57
48 43
53 54
42
43
40 46
37
51
Before
COVID-19
May 27-29
40
May 9-17
89
Sep 2-4June 16-18 July 15-17
100
89 92 90 93
-7%
Likely Very/extremely likely
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
8. McKinsey & Company 8
Demand for new car increasing in all regions; demand for used cars
increasing in Europe and Asia, while dropping in US
Purchase intent for new car vs. used car1
Indexed to pre-COVID-19 value (=100)
1. Weighted based on 2019 new car sales
100
60
80
70
90
Pre-
COVID-
19
May
9-17
May
27-29
June
16-18
July
15-17
Sep
2-4
New car Used car
100
60
70
90
80
May
27-29
May
9-17
July
15-17
June
16-18
Pre-
COVID-
19
Sep
2-4
60
90
70
80
100
May
9-17
Pre-
COVID-
19
July
15-17
May
27-29
June
16-18
Sep
2-4
US Europe Asia
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
9. McKinsey & Company 9
New car purchase intent shows significant recovery across all
markets – however, IT and US still significantly below pre-COVID-19
1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
3. US, UK and GER w/o additional UC boost in W5
Purchase intent new cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level 1,2,3
Percent
74
31 36
49 50 53
26
30
27
27
32
33
July
15-
17
Before
COVID-
19
May
9-11
May
27-
29
Sep
2-4
June
16-
18
60
86
76
100
64
82
-14%
Very/extremely likelyLikely Change in %
73
41
48 49 45
58
27
22
22 25
25
20
May
9-11
100
Sep
2-4
June
16-
18
Before
COVID-
19
May
27-
29
July
15-
17
63
70
74
70
78
-22%
FranceGermany ItalyUKUS China Japan
70
46
58 58 54
63
30
33
26
34 36
28
91
May
27-
29
Before
COVID-
19
May
11-
13
June
16-
18
Sep
2-4
July
15-
17
84
100
79
9191
-9%
61
37 36 34 40 42
39
37 39 40
39 37
74
Sep
2-4
Before
COVID-
19
75
June
16-
18
May
11-
13
May
27-
29
July
15-
17
79
100
75
79
-21%
73 68
60
68 72 69
27
30
31
25 19 25
100
June
16-
18
Before
COVID-
19
Sep
2-4
May
14-
15
May
27-
29
July
15-
17
98
91 93 91
94
-6%
60
37 37
48 46
56
40
38 36
34 44
52
107
90
Before
COVID-
19
June
16-
18
May
27-
29
May
14-
15
July
15-
17
Sep
2-4
100
74 73
82
+7%
67
46
59 59 55 61
33
44
37
48
44
49
Sep
2-4
May
27-
29
Before
COVID-
19
May
15-
17
June
16-
18
July
15-
17
100
89
96
100
106
110
+10%
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
07/08: Up to UR 9,000
purchase subsidy for xEVs,
plus abolishing vehicle tax on
BEVs until 2030
06/01: EUR 7k subsidy for the
purchase of an EV costing up
to EUR 45k and EUR 2k for
PHEVs up to EUR 50k
07/10: Subsidies of JPY
50,000 when purchasing a
vehicle produced domestically
07/17: EUR 6,000 incentive
for the purchase of lower
emission ICEs, HEVs and
BEVs costing up to EUR 61k
05/01: Extension of subsidies
for buying NEVs until 2022,
and tax exemptions on
purchases for two years
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
10. McKinsey & Company 10
Used car purchase intent is recovering across most markets –US
and Germany showing a significant drop
1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
Change in %
Purchase intent used cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level 1,2
Percent
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
51
30 32 31 33 33
49
30 27
37 38 40
May
9-11
71
Before
COVID-
19
May
27-
29
June
16-
18
Sep
2-4
74
July
15-
17
100
60 59
69
-26%
Likely Very/extremely likely
47
39 37
44
52
40
53
34 39 32
26
30
June
16-
18
July
15-
17
Before
COVID-
19
May
27-
29
May
9-11
Sep
2-4
100
73
77 76 78
70
-30%
FranceGermany ItalyUKUS China Japan
65
31 34 37
47
32
35
39 37 38
44
53
74
July
15-
17
May
11-
13
Sep
2-4
100
Before
COVID-
19
May
27-
29
June
16-
18
69 71
91
86
-14%
43
30
23
30 33 30
57
41 54
51
52 62
May
27-
29
Before
COVID-
19
92
May
11-
13
81
June
16-
18
July
15-
17
Sep
2-4
100
72
77
85
-8%
64
55 50
65 61
46
36 51
52
41
38
59
May
14-
15
Before
COVID-
19
June
16-
18
May
27-
29
July
15-
17
102
Sep
2-4
100
106 106
98
105
+5%
52
39
50 49 49 51
48
65
50
45 48
56
Sep
2-4
Before
COVID-
19
July
15-
17
June
16-
18
May
14-
15
May
27-
29
100
104
100
94 97
107
+7%
53
36 32
44 43
28
47
53
46
47 48
70
Sep
2-4
Before
COVID-
19
July
15-
17
June
16-
18
May
15-
17
May
27-
29
100
89
78
91 91
98
-2%
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
11. McKinsey & Company 11
Purchase intent increasing across all regions vs last survey,
especially amongst higher-income households
1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, how likely were you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how likely are you to purchase or lease a new or used vehicle within the next 12 months?
3. US, UK and GER w/o additional UC boost in W5
4. Lower household income defined as income below 50k €/$/£ in Europe and US, below ¥75k in CN, below ¥5 Mn in JP
Purchase intent new cars vs. pre-COVID-19 level by household income1,2,3
Percent
Change in %
100
68 71 73 73 81
-19%
Higher
income4
US Europe Asia
100
77 82 90 91 96
-4%
100 93 89 91 91 96
-4%
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
100
55
67
76
60 65
Before
COVID-
19
May
9-11
May
27-29
Sep
2-4
June
16-18
July
15-17
-35%
Lower
income4
100
78 77
89 89 92
May
27-29
July
15-17
Before
COVID-
19
June
16-18
May
9-11
Sep
2-4
-8%
100 108
85
94
76 74
Sep
2-4
June
16-18
Before
COVID-
19
May
9-11
July
15-17
May
27-29
-26%
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
12. McKinsey & Company 12
Interest in car characteristics vs. their pre-COVID-19 purchase
intent varies significantly by region
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
FranceGermany ItalyUKUS China Japan
-3
3
3
-14
Budget/
volume
brand
Less expensive
Smaller
Less likely
EV/PHEV
-7
Less likely
ADAS features
-1
4
1
-13
-3
-8
5
5
-2
2
-9
1
5
-3
1
-13
7
8
4
3
14
31
18
23
10
-20
-20
-15
-3
-12
More expensive
Larger
Premium brand
More likely
EV/PHEV
More likely
ADAS features
Expected change in car characteristics vs. pre-COVID-19 purchase intent
Net score
Results of wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
13. McKinsey & Company 13
Expected time to purchase slowly decreasing across most
markets (apart from US)
1. Q: BEFORE the COVID-19 crisis started, when would you have likely made your next vehicle purchase (or lease)?
2. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, when do you think you are likely to make you next vehicle purchase (or lease)?
3. Question under footnote 1 and 2 answers “No longer planning on buying or leasing a vehicle” and “Not sure” have been excluded
Duration of purchase delay1,2,3
Percent of respondents delaying purchase
39
51
45
49
43
48
38
40
35
41
10 9 14 13 14
W3
4 to 6 months
3
W1
3
W2
2
W4
2
W5
10 months
or more
7 to 9 months
Up to 3 months
3
JapanChinaItalyFranceGermanyUKUS
34
43 44 41
47
48
44 40 46 37
14
13
13 10 11
W2 W4
14 3
W1 W3
3 4
W5
46 45 44 43
47
40 41 45
40
37
13 12 8
15 13
W1
31 32
W3W2 W4
2
W5
44
49 52
40
46
42
37
37
42
36
11 12
11
15 14
2
W2
3
W1
3 1
W3 W4
4
W5
31 33 34 36 36
48 45
51 47 45
18 17
13 16 17
W4
33
W1
4
W2 W3
1 2
W5
57 55 57 58
67
36 35
37 36
29
6 9 5 5
W1
11
W3
11
W2 W5W4
13
40
35
45
35 35
38 46
42
46 48
19 16
10
17
15
W4
4 23 33
W3W1 W2 W5
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
14. McKinsey & Company 14
Delays due to health concerns continue to decrease while
economics become more relevant across all regions
1. Q: Which of the following reasons best describes why you have decided to delay your purchase (or lease) of a new vehicle? Please select one
Purchase delay reasons1
Percent of respondents
US Europe Asia
10 9 6
12 11
45
39
37
35
30
45
52 56 53
59
W1 W4W3W2
Subsidies
Health
W5
Economics
14 18 15 18 14
35 31
29 27
25
52 51 55 55
61
W2W1 W3 W4 W5
6 8 7 9 8
39 38 39 38
36
55 54 54 53 56
W3W1 W2 W4 W5
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
15. McKinsey & Company 15
Planned spent on vehicle has improved across all geographies –
most strongly in US and Asia – but net score still negative
Change in planned vehicle spending vs. pre-COVID-19 1
Percent of respondents
1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how did the total value of the vehicle you are considering purchasing or leasing changed?
Net score
Δ Increase vs
decrease
-9 -18 -25 -23 -24 -30
US Europe Asia
-15 -21 -23
22
29 31 30
22
65
60 52 59
57
13 11 16
11
21
W1
Increase
W2 W3 W4 W5
Did not change
Decrease
31 27 29 28 28
63 66 65 65 63
6 6 7 9
W5W3W1 W2
6
W4
38 36 40 40
25
47 51
50 45
57
14 13 10 15 18
W2W1 W3 W4 W5
-20 -22 -25
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
-1 -19 -7
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
16. McKinsey & Company 16
34
40 39 39 41 38
22
23 28 28 23 27
45
37 33 33 36 35
W5W3Previous
purchase
By phone
with dealer /
E-mail or fax
to dealer
W1 W2 W4
In person at
car dealership
Website /
Mobile app
Preferred interaction mode for purchasing next car and for last car purchased 1,2
Percent of respondents
1. Q: When you LAST TIME purchased or leased a car/serviced a car, which of the following sources/channels did you predominately use?
2. Q: For your PLANNED/NEXT vehicle purchase/leased/car service, which of the following sources/channels would you prefer to use?
Note: values are calculated as average across the sales funnel from "Researching/configuring" to "Sales/ Aftersales"; detailed in country deep dives
Across markets, at least a third of consumers prefers
digital sales channels – trend stable across markets
31 33 34 33 32 33
23 22 23 23 24 23
46 45 42 44 44 44
W2Previous
purchase
W4W3W1 W5
37 39 39 39 43 41
33 34 32 32
30
28
29 27 29 29 27 31
Previous
purchase
W5W1 W3W2 W4
US Europe Asia
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
18. McKinsey & Company 18
Changes in maintenance and repair since beginning of COVID-191
% of respondents
On average, ~15% of consumers plan to postpone maintenance &
repair, > ~30% to do additional work – trend stable
1 Q: What type of maintenance, repair and improvement work have you delayed or done additionally?, figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2 Net impact is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they have delayed service & maintenance work from the % of respondents stating they have done additional maintenance work
Net impact2
Plan for next month 30%45%25%
13% 10%77%Up until now
No changesDelay Done additional
Up until now
29%52%19%Plan for next month
12% 13%75%Up until nowUp until now
6% 30%64%Plan for next month
Up until now 11%83%6%Up until now
28%55%17%Plan for next month
12%79%9%Up until nowUp until now
38%53%9%Plan for next month
17%66%17%Up until nowUp until now
18% 44%38%Plan for next month
32%45%23%Up until nowUp until now
9% 25%66%Plan for next month
82%Up until now 11%7%Up until now
+39
+39
+39;
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
Net impact
Wave 42
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
+39
- 2
+ 5
0
+3
0
- 2
+4
+1
+14
+20
+12
+30
+27
+12
Source: McKinsey Global COVID-19 Automotive Consumer Survey
- 3
+ 4
+2
+5
+3
0
+9
+4
+10
+24
+11
+29
+26
+16
Results of wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
20. McKinsey & Company 20Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Since the COVID-19 outbreak, mobility decreased significantly
around the world, with trips slowly picking up again
1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has your mobility changed since the outbreak of COVID-19?
2. US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, China, Japan
3. Total (significant) mobility decrease wave 4 vs. wave 1
Global2
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
Mobility pattern changes (number and length of trips) since the outbreak of COVID-191
Number of respondents, in percent
Slightly decreaseSignificantly increase
Slightly increase Significantly decrease
▪ Currently 52% of
consumers
travelling less,
recovering at 6
p.p. vs. last wave
▪ Mobility demand
in China still on
level of wave 1
(May 2020)
x Mobility recovery3, in p.p.
6 7 5
7
-28 -26 -26 -27 -24
-41
-38 -34 -33
-27
W2
5
3
W3
4
4
W1
3 5
W4 W5
+19
8
W2
4
2
-29
W5
-24
13
-29
-33
1
W1
-26
2
5
-25-29
W3
5
-28
-16
W4
3
-16
+22
61
W1
22
-21
-66
2
-29
-53
W2
23
-32
-40
W3
1
-23
4
-36
-29
W4
2
-37
W5
+27
6 71
W1
-25-20
W5W3
3
2
-60
4
-50
W2
2
5
-27
-23
-33
2
-29
W4
2
-29
-19
+20
18 22
12 10 7
6
W2
-33
3
-30-39
-30
-29
W1
3
3
-40
-30
W3
-40
-34
W4
4
-36
W5
+3
6 8
-33 -31 -30 -28 -28
-30
-26
-23
-20
-14
4
2
W2
4 2
W1
5
1
W3
2
W4
3
W5
+21
6 7 6 6 7
-26 -29 -29
-46
-33
-23
-39
W2
2
W1
2
-27
W3
2 3
-30
-28
W4
3
W5
+20
7
-22
-48-53
4
2
-19-18
2
W1
-24
2
4
-50
-26
W2 W5
2
4
W3
5
-39
W4
3
-30
+16
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
21. McKinsey & Company 21
Walking / biking and micromobility potentially becoming more
popular in the modal mix of the "next normal"
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Usage of transportation modes on a regular basis1,2
Number of respondents stating at least weekly, in percent
1 Q: Before/today/when you return to "next normal", how often did/do you/do you expect to use the following modes of transportation?
2. Once or more than once per week, aggregated results from US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, China and Japan
78
64
69
72
75
76
79
Wave 5
Wave 4
Before crisis
Wave 1
Return to
"normal life"
Wave 3
Wave 2
37
19
23
23
25
27
37
61
57
60
60
60
60
66
13
11
12
12
12
13
15
10
9
10
9
8
9
12
13
10
12
11
10
10
14
Private car Public transport
Walking or biking
with private bike
Micromobility (e.g.,
e-scooter, e-bike)
Car sharing
(e.g., ShareNow)
Ride hailing (e.g.,
Uber, Lyft, taxis)
What we
expect in
the "Next
Normal"
Potential long-lasting effects as cities
might extend measures beyond lock-
down to reduce traffic and air pollution
Slight recovery
expected as
curfews are lifted;
strict hygiene
protocols to be
installed
As ride hailers take physical
measures to reduce risk of infection
(e.g. protective shields), demand will
rebound again
Car usage will decrease
in city centers as cities
disincentivize private
vehicle ownership (e.g.,
inner-city bans,
congestion charges)
▪ Respondents
expect an
increased
usage of
walking /
biking and
micro-
mobility when
returning to
“normal life”
▪ Public
transport
picked up
fastest over
the last month
▪ Walking /
biking and
private car
almost back to
a pre-crisis
level
x Mobility recovery, in p.p.
Mobility usage pre-
vs. post-crisis
Mobility usage
during crisis
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
22. McKinsey & Company 22Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Frequency of commuting trips has significantly decreased globally,
recovering at different speed, depending on the region
1. Q: Given TODAY’S situation, how has the number of trips of your commute changed since the outbreak of COVID-19?
2. Q: After you return to "next normal", i.e. when a vaccine against COVID-19 is broadly available and the pandemic is defeated, how do you think your commuting habits will be compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak?
3. US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, China, Japan
-21 -22 -22 -22 -22
-43 -38 -31 -25 -31 -31
W2
552 25 5
W1
-21
2 2
W3
25
W4
5
W5
2
Next
normal
Global3
15
-20 -20 -20
-48 -42 -36 -35 -36
93 9
W2
4
-22
6
W1
36
W3
5
W5
5
-19
W4
6
11
-13
-6
Next
normal
2 2 1 1 1
-66 -63 -60 -49 -60
-12
3
-12
W1
4
W2 W3
3
-13
6
-14
W4
3
-13
W5
10
11
-18
-6
Next
normal
-36 -33 -25
-19
-25
2
W2
1
-19 -3
W1
1 2
-17
1 2
-20
W4W3
1 93
-16
1 2
-20
W5
8
-10
Next
normal
17
13
-23 -24 -23 -24
-56
-48 -37 -31 -37
W2
12 1
W1
41 2
-21
12
W3
1
W4
2
W5
-14
-3
Next
normal
-51 -48 -32
-19
-32
5
-16
1
W2W1
51
-15
2 5
7
W4
-17
W3
1 5
-17
2
-4
5
-17
W5
9
-13
Next
normal
30
-30 -36 -38 -38 -38
-21 -16 -14 -14 -14
W2 W4
12
-3
W5
4
17 11
W1
23
W3
9
5 2
11
10
-13
Next
normal
-23 -23 -24
-28 -19 -19 -13 -19
211 12
W1
1 12
W2
-20
W3 W4
1 1
-20
W5
37
-16
-4
Next
normal
Significantly increase Slightly increase Slightly decrease Significantly decrease
Change in number of commuting trips during and after the crisis vs. commuting habits before1,2
Number of respondents, in percent
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
23. McKinsey & Company 23Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Around the world consumers expect to shift from airplanes and
trains for intercity travelling to an increased use of private vehicles
Change of mode for intercity travelling when returning to "next normal" vs. habits before COVID-19 outbreak1
Number of respondents2, in percent
Airplane
Train
Private
vehicle
1 Q: After you return to next normal, how do you think travelling between cities will change compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak?
2. Consumers that have not used this mode of transportation before the COVID-19 outbreak excluded of scope of country
21 22
-39 -33 -39 -33 -35 -42 -51 -40 -39 -37
17 14 14 1918 1714 16
Increased usage Decreased usage
Global3
21 20 25 22
-31 -29 -31 -21 -31 -28 -44 -32 -32 -25
1719 14 1818 16
31 31 25 23 37 26
49
28 31 32
-8 -18-13 -16-12-12 -10 -9 -13 -11
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
Owning
a vehicle
Not owning
a vehicle
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
24. McKinsey & Company 24
Risk of infection: shared and public transport are not considered as
safe for health, infections became a top priority for the mode choice
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
80
8
56
8 6 6
People increasingly use
active transport modes
such as walking & biking
Public transit
ridership has
fallen
significantly
Car sharing usage, as all
shared mobility modes,
dropped significantly
“Car as safe
space”: People
switch to
transport
modes with low
risk of infection
What we
observe
during the
pandemic
Private
car
Public
transport
Walking/
biking3
Shared
micro
mobility
Ride
hailing
Car
sharing
1. Q: Which of the following modes of transportation do you consider safe for your health concerning a COVID-19 infection?
2. Aggregated results from US, UK, Germany, Italy, France, China and Japan
3. With private bike
4. For a private trip
Modes of transportation considered safe for health, concerning a COVID-19 infection1,2
Number of respondents, in percent
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
Top 5 reasons to chose transport mode4
Reasons ranked by number of respondents
Before the
COVID-19 crisis Today
1. Time to destination
2. Price of trip
3. Space and privacy
4. Convenience
5. Congestion
1. Risk of infection
2. Time to destination
3. Space and privacy
4. Convenience
5. Price of trip
51
… percent of
respondents would
increase mode
usage with regular
disinfection
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
25. McKinsey & Company 25Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Increased importance of direct vehicle access and willingness to
expand this to new use cases, especially for younger consumers
Willingness to pay for electric vehicles (in percent relative to ICE)
By age
Importance of constant access to a private vehicle1
Number of respondents, in percent
1. Q: How has the importance of having constant access to a private vehicle changed since the COVID-19 outbreak?
2. Q: Based on your experience with COVID-19,could you imagine extending your use of private vehicles beyond travelling in the future, (e.g. for consuming via drive-ins for shopping or cinema)?
3. Aggregated results from US, UK, DE, IT, FR, CH, JP
32
-15
Increased Decreased
Global3
43
33
24
-16 -14 -16
35-5418-34 55-70
Results of wave 1 (May 9-18), wave 2 (May 27-29), wave 3 (June 16-18), wave 4 (July 15 – 17), and wave 5 (Sep 2-4)
Willingness to expand private vehicles to new use cases2
Share amongst vehicle owners, in percent
By ageGlobal3
47
-26
59
49
37
-22 -25 -31
18-34 35-54 55-70
Yes No
AS OF SEPTEMBER 21st, 2020
26. McKinsey & Company 26
Disclaimer
McKinsey does not provide legal, medical or other regulated advice or
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