The Congressional Budget Office director presented on the 2019 budget and economic outlook. Key points included:
- Budget deficits are projected to grow steadily, with debt held by the public rising from 78% of GDP in 2019 to 95% by 2029.
- The economy is projected to grow at around 2% annually through 2021 and then more slowly thereafter, constrained by demographic and labor force trends.
- Under current laws, mandatory spending such as Social Security and Medicare will continue growing faster than the economy, driving rising budget deficits.
- The tax cuts and jobs act of 2017 is estimated to increase deficits by $1.9 trillion from 2018 to 2028 after accounting for economic effects.
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Fixed Income Forum 2019 Spring Roundtable.
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the American Business Conference.
This presentation provides an overview of the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on January 28. In those projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2029.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases decline sharply in the fourth quarter of the year. Economic growth is projected to slow to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023 and to average 1.8 percent from 2024 to 2029.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, Robert Arnold, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, and Joshua Shakin, Chief of the Revenue Estimating Unit in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, at a joint seminar with the Congressional Research Service.
Financial regulation affects the federal budget directly through spending for programs that support the stability of financial institutions and through the taxes and fees that those institutions pay. Regulation also affects the budget indirectly through its effects on the economy. Those effects generate a trade-off: Increased financial regulation may lower the likelihood of a financial crisis and mitigate the severity of any crisis that occurred, but it may also raise the cost of financing for investments.
This presentation highlights three illustrative polices from CBO’s report Financial Regulation and the Federal Budget and finds that the largest budgetary effects of implementing them would stem from macroeconomic feedback.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the National Bureau of Economic Research conference, Economics of Infrastructure Investment.
Federal investment in physical capital, education, and research and development boosts private-sector productivity gradually, CBO estimates. The overall macroeconomic and budgetary effects of federal investment depend on how that spending is financed.
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Fixed Income Forum 2019 Spring Roundtable.
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the American Business Conference.
This presentation provides an overview of the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent budget and economic projections, which were published on January 28. In those projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2029.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases decline sharply in the fourth quarter of the year. Economic growth is projected to slow to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023 and to average 1.8 percent from 2024 to 2029.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, Robert Arnold, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division, and Joshua Shakin, Chief of the Revenue Estimating Unit in CBO’s Tax Analysis Division, at a joint seminar with the Congressional Research Service.
Financial regulation affects the federal budget directly through spending for programs that support the stability of financial institutions and through the taxes and fees that those institutions pay. Regulation also affects the budget indirectly through its effects on the economy. Those effects generate a trade-off: Increased financial regulation may lower the likelihood of a financial crisis and mitigate the severity of any crisis that occurred, but it may also raise the cost of financing for investments.
This presentation highlights three illustrative polices from CBO’s report Financial Regulation and the Federal Budget and finds that the largest budgetary effects of implementing them would stem from macroeconomic feedback.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the National Bureau of Economic Research conference, Economics of Infrastructure Investment.
Federal investment in physical capital, education, and research and development boosts private-sector productivity gradually, CBO estimates. The overall macroeconomic and budgetary effects of federal investment depend on how that spending is financed.
Presentation on Capitol Hill in a Panel Discussion with Local Leaders, by Sarah Puro, Principal Analyst, Budget Analysis Division, Congressional Budget Office
Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation.
CBO’s long-term budget projections generally reflect current law and estimates of future economic conditions and demographic trends. Those projections depend on estimates of the future paths of mortality rates, productivity, interest rates, and health care costs, among many other variables. To illustrate some of the uncertainty about long-term budgetary outcomes, CBO constructed alternative projections showing what would happen to the budget if those factors differed from the values used in the extended baseline.
Presentation by Xiaotong Niu, an analyst in CBO's Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at the Biennial Conference of the American Society of Health Economists.
The consequences of any change to Medicare for different socioeconomic groups depend on the distribution of taxes paid to and benefits received from the current system by each group. However, only a few studies have estimated that distribution, and they offer conflicting views. This presentation describes an analysis of the distribution of Medicare taxes and spending using a unique dataset with information on beneficiaries’ lifetime earnings and Medicare spending. The dataset includes more recent cohorts of beneficiaries than earlier studies, and the distribution of Medicare taxes and spending is projected based on demographic and economic projections from CBO’s long-term microsimulation model.
The Medicare system is progressive. For people born in the 1950s, lifetime Medicare spending net of both premiums and dedicated Medicare taxes, as a share of lifetime earnings, tends to be lower for beneficiaries with higher lifetime household earnings. Almost all of the variation in lifetime Medicare spending net of premiums by lifetime household earnings can be explained by the variation in life expectancy. Medicare is projected to become more progressive for later cohorts because lifetime earnings are expected to grow faster for those with higher earnings.
In 2010, more than 70 percent of families directly owned capital assets that had a combined worth of $50 trillion. In that year, taxpayers reported net long-term gains and net long-term losses that totaled $123 billion from the sale of those types of assets.
In this report, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation examine the distribution of capital assets and net capital gains and losses in 2010 by type of asset and by the income and age of the asset holder.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.
Revenues and spending as a share of economic output have varied over business cycles as a result of both changes in legislation and automatic stabilizers. Automatic stabilizers are the automatic increases in revenues and decreases in outlays in the federal budget that occur when the economy strengthens, and the opposite changes that occur when the economy weakens.
Presentation by Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland.
Since 1975, CBO has produced nonpartisan analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process. Each year, the agency’s economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation.
One such report is the annual Budget and Economic Outlook, which is generally released each January and updated in August, and projects economic and budget outcomes under the assumption that current laws regarding federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. This presentation includes some key elements of those projections.
Using CBO’s new distributional framework and improved estimates of income from means-tested transfers, this presentation examines the distribution of household income and how means-tested transfers and federal taxes affect that distribution. The presentation shows cross-sectional results for 2013 and then examines trends in income, means-tested transfers, and federal taxes from 1979 through 2013.
Presentation by Kevin Perese, an analyst in CBO's Tax Analysis Division, at the University of Michigan’s 65th Annual Economic Outlook Conference.
Presentation by Sarah Puro, Principal Analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at Living Cities: City Accelerator Cohort on Public Infrastructure.
The federal budget shows the subsidy costs of federal loans and loan guarantees for infrastructure and other purposes. Some proposals for new surface transportation programs involve establishing an entity to finance infrastructure investments. Even if such an entity is not officially a federal agency, its activities might be considered part of the federal budget.
Presentation by Matthew Goldberg, Deputy Assistant Director for CBO’s National Security Division, to the Manpower Roundtable.
If the Congress rejects certain cost-saving proposals of the Administration that it has not accepted in the past, and if costs for weapon systems continue to rise as they have in the past, funding required to implement the Administration’s plans for the Department of Defense would exceed the funding caps set by the Budget Control Act of 2011 by $162 billion (in 2016 dollars) over the 2017–2020 period.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 35th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference.
Federal debt is already large, and budget deficits over the next decade and beyond are projected to keep pushing it up in relation to the size of the economy. Eventually, debt as a share of economic output would reach its highest level in our nation’s history.
CBO projects a 2019 deficit of $897 billion, equaling 4.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The projected shortfall (adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of certain payments) grows to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2029. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach $16.6 trillion at the end of 2019. That amount would equal 78 percent of GDP—nearly twice its average over the past 50 years. Debt is estimated to reach $28.7 trillion, or 93 percent of GDP, by 2029, a larger amount than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2029, reaching about 150 percent of GDP by 2049.
Presentation on Capitol Hill in a Panel Discussion with Local Leaders, by Sarah Puro, Principal Analyst, Budget Analysis Division, Congressional Budget Office
Presentation by Ben Page, CBO's Fiscal Policy Studies Unit Chief, at the National Tax Association 108th Annual Conference on Taxation.
CBO’s long-term budget projections generally reflect current law and estimates of future economic conditions and demographic trends. Those projections depend on estimates of the future paths of mortality rates, productivity, interest rates, and health care costs, among many other variables. To illustrate some of the uncertainty about long-term budgetary outcomes, CBO constructed alternative projections showing what would happen to the budget if those factors differed from the values used in the extended baseline.
Presentation by Xiaotong Niu, an analyst in CBO's Health, Retirement, and Long-Term Analysis Division, at the Biennial Conference of the American Society of Health Economists.
The consequences of any change to Medicare for different socioeconomic groups depend on the distribution of taxes paid to and benefits received from the current system by each group. However, only a few studies have estimated that distribution, and they offer conflicting views. This presentation describes an analysis of the distribution of Medicare taxes and spending using a unique dataset with information on beneficiaries’ lifetime earnings and Medicare spending. The dataset includes more recent cohorts of beneficiaries than earlier studies, and the distribution of Medicare taxes and spending is projected based on demographic and economic projections from CBO’s long-term microsimulation model.
The Medicare system is progressive. For people born in the 1950s, lifetime Medicare spending net of both premiums and dedicated Medicare taxes, as a share of lifetime earnings, tends to be lower for beneficiaries with higher lifetime household earnings. Almost all of the variation in lifetime Medicare spending net of premiums by lifetime household earnings can be explained by the variation in life expectancy. Medicare is projected to become more progressive for later cohorts because lifetime earnings are expected to grow faster for those with higher earnings.
In 2010, more than 70 percent of families directly owned capital assets that had a combined worth of $50 trillion. In that year, taxpayers reported net long-term gains and net long-term losses that totaled $123 billion from the sale of those types of assets.
In this report, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation examine the distribution of capital assets and net capital gains and losses in 2010 by type of asset and by the income and age of the asset holder.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.
Revenues and spending as a share of economic output have varied over business cycles as a result of both changes in legislation and automatic stabilizers. Automatic stabilizers are the automatic increases in revenues and decreases in outlays in the federal budget that occur when the economy strengthens, and the opposite changes that occur when the economy weakens.
Presentation by Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland.
Since 1975, CBO has produced nonpartisan analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process. Each year, the agency’s economists and budget analysts produce dozens of reports and hundreds of cost estimates for proposed legislation.
One such report is the annual Budget and Economic Outlook, which is generally released each January and updated in August, and projects economic and budget outcomes under the assumption that current laws regarding federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. This presentation includes some key elements of those projections.
Using CBO’s new distributional framework and improved estimates of income from means-tested transfers, this presentation examines the distribution of household income and how means-tested transfers and federal taxes affect that distribution. The presentation shows cross-sectional results for 2013 and then examines trends in income, means-tested transfers, and federal taxes from 1979 through 2013.
Presentation by Kevin Perese, an analyst in CBO's Tax Analysis Division, at the University of Michigan’s 65th Annual Economic Outlook Conference.
Presentation by Sarah Puro, Principal Analyst in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, at Living Cities: City Accelerator Cohort on Public Infrastructure.
The federal budget shows the subsidy costs of federal loans and loan guarantees for infrastructure and other purposes. Some proposals for new surface transportation programs involve establishing an entity to finance infrastructure investments. Even if such an entity is not officially a federal agency, its activities might be considered part of the federal budget.
Presentation by Matthew Goldberg, Deputy Assistant Director for CBO’s National Security Division, to the Manpower Roundtable.
If the Congress rejects certain cost-saving proposals of the Administration that it has not accepted in the past, and if costs for weapon systems continue to rise as they have in the past, funding required to implement the Administration’s plans for the Department of Defense would exceed the funding caps set by the Budget Control Act of 2011 by $162 billion (in 2016 dollars) over the 2017–2020 period.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 35th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference.
Federal debt is already large, and budget deficits over the next decade and beyond are projected to keep pushing it up in relation to the size of the economy. Eventually, debt as a share of economic output would reach its highest level in our nation’s history.
CBO projects a 2019 deficit of $897 billion, equaling 4.2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The projected shortfall (adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of certain payments) grows to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2029. Federal debt held by the public is projected to reach $16.6 trillion at the end of 2019. That amount would equal 78 percent of GDP—nearly twice its average over the past 50 years. Debt is estimated to reach $28.7 trillion, or 93 percent of GDP, by 2029, a larger amount than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2029, reaching about 150 percent of GDP by 2049.
In 2020, CBO estimates a deficit of $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under current law, the projected gap between outlays and revenues increases to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise over the coming decade, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030. It continues to grow thereafter, in CBO’s projections, reaching 180 percent of GDP in 2050, well above the highest level ever recorded in the United States.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO supports the Congressional budget process by providing the Congress with objective, nonpartisan, and timely analyses of legislative proposals and of budgetary and economic issues. From a macroeconomic perspective, CBO produces work in two areas. First, it provides baseline economic forecasts over 10- and 30-year projection windows. Second, it analyzes the short-term and longer-term effects on the overall economy of some proposed changes in federal tax and spending policies. This presentation describes that work and provides recent examples of forecasts and analysis.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Robert Arnold, and Joshua Shakin, CBO Unit Chiefs, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service.
The Budget and Economic Outlook, a recurring publication of the Congressional Budget Office, provides budget and economic projections that incorporate the assumption that current laws governing federal spending and revenues generally remain in place. Those baseline projections cover the 10-year period used in the Congressional budget process. The report generally describes the differences between the current projections and previous ones; compares the economic forecast with those of other forecasters; and shows the budgetary impact of some alternative policy assumptions. This presentation describes the projections and provides some recent examples.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). If current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally did not change, the projected gap between outlays and revenues would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Federal debt held by the public would rise over the coming decade, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
Financial regulation affects the federal budget directly through spending for programs that support the stability of financial institutions and through the taxes and fees that those institutions pay. Regulation also affects the budget indirectly through its effects on the economy. Those effects generate a trade-off: Increased financial regulation may lower the likelihood of a financial crisis and mitigate the severity of any crisis that occurred, but it may also raise the cost of financing for investments.
This presentation provides an overview of the agency’s most recent budget and economic projections, which incorporate the assumption that current laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged. In those projections, federal debt held by the public grows sharply over the next 30 years, reaching unprecedented levels. The presentation also includes a discussion of the effects of the 2017 tax act and recent changes to federal spending policy on the projections. In addition, the presentation touches on budgetary outcomes under scenarios that include future changes to current law.
Presentation by John McClelland, CBO’s Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at the International Tax Policy Forum.
Concord Coalition: The Current US Fiscal Situation (October 2020)Brad Keithley
A chart talk from The Concord Coalition analyzing the fiscal challenges facing the US before COVID, and how the economic impact of COVID and the federal response has made that situation even more difficult.
A few times each year, CBO produces a baseline budget projection—a detailed projection of federal spending, revenues, and resulting deficits for the current year and the subsequent 10 years, reflecting an assumption that current laws generally remain unchanged. That baseline serves as a neutral benchmark for measuring the budgetary effects of proposed changes in federal revenues and mandatory spending. It is the basis for CBO’s cost estimates for proposed legislation, analyses of the President’s annual budget, volume of policy options that would reduce the deficit, and assessments of multiyear budget trends. It is often a starting point for development of Congressional budget resolutions.
This presentation describes those baseline projections and how they are formulated. It also summarizes CBO’s most recent projections.
Presentation by Theresa Gullo, Assistant Director for Budget Analysis, and John McClelland, Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service for Congressional staff.
Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
Presentation by Mark Hadley, CBO's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel, at the 2nd NABO-OECD Annual Conference of Asian Parliamentary Budget Officials.
Presentation by Daria Pelech, an analyst in CBO’s Health Analysis Division, at the Center for Health Insurance Reform McCourt School of Public Policy, Georgetown University.
This slide deck highlights CBO’s key findings about the outlook for the economy as described in its new report, The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024 to 2034.
Presentation by CBO analysts Rebecca Heller, Shannon Mok, and James Pearce, and Census Bureau research economist Jonathan Rothbaum at the American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Committee on Economic Statistics.
Presentation by Eric J. Labs, an analyst in CBO’s National Security Division, at the Bank of America 2024 Defense Outlook and Commercial Aerospace Forum.
Presentation by Elizabeth Ash, William Carrington, Rebecca Heller, and Grace Hwang of CBO’s Labor, Income Security, and Long-Term Analysis and Health Analysis divisions to the Children’s Health Group, American Academy of Pediatrics.
Presentation by Molly Dahl, Chief of CBO’s Long-Term Analysis Unit, at a meeting of the National Conference of State Legislatures’ Budget Working Group.
In the President’s 2024 budget request, total military compensation is $551 billion, including veterans' benefits. That amount represents an increase of 134 percent since 1999 after removing the effects of inflation.
Many ways to support street children.pptxSERUDS INDIA
By raising awareness, providing support, advocating for change, and offering assistance to children in need, individuals can play a crucial role in improving the lives of street children and helping them realize their full potential
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-individuals-can-support-street-children-in-india/
#donatefororphan, #donateforhomelesschildren, #childeducation, #ngochildeducation, #donateforeducation, #donationforchildeducation, #sponsorforpoorchild, #sponsororphanage #sponsororphanchild, #donation, #education, #charity, #educationforchild, #seruds, #kurnool, #joyhome
Canadian Immigration Tracker March 2024 - Key SlidesAndrew Griffith
Highlights
Permanent Residents decrease along with percentage of TR2PR decline to 52 percent of all Permanent Residents.
March asylum claim data not issued as of May 27 (unusually late). Irregular arrivals remain very small.
Study permit applications experiencing sharp decrease as a result of announced caps over 50 percent compared to February.
Citizenship numbers remain stable.
Slide 3 has the overall numbers and change.
A process server is a authorized person for delivering legal documents, such as summons, complaints, subpoenas, and other court papers, to peoples involved in legal proceedings.
Russian anarchist and anti-war movement in the third year of full-scale warAntti Rautiainen
Anarchist group ANA Regensburg hosted my online-presentation on 16th of May 2024, in which I discussed tactics of anti-war activism in Russia, and reasons why the anti-war movement has not been able to make an impact to change the course of events yet. Cases of anarchists repressed for anti-war activities are presented, as well as strategies of support for political prisoners, and modest successes in supporting their struggles.
Thumbnail picture is by MediaZona, you may read their report on anti-war arson attacks in Russia here: https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/13/burn-map
Links:
Autonomous Action
http://Avtonom.org
Anarchist Black Cross Moscow
http://Avtonom.org/abc
Solidarity Zone
https://t.me/solidarity_zone
Memorial
https://memopzk.org/, https://t.me/pzk_memorial
OVD-Info
https://en.ovdinfo.org/antiwar-ovd-info-guide
RosUznik
https://rosuznik.org/
Uznik Online
http://uznikonline.tilda.ws/
Russian Reader
https://therussianreader.com/
ABC Irkutsk
https://abc38.noblogs.org/
Send mail to prisoners from abroad:
http://Prisonmail.online
YouTube: https://youtu.be/c5nSOdU48O8
Spotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/libertarianlifecoach/episodes/Russian-anarchist-and-anti-war-movement-in-the-third-year-of-full-scale-war-e2k8ai4
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
What is the point of small housing associations.pptxPaul Smith
Given the small scale of housing associations and their relative high cost per home what is the point of them and how do we justify their continued existance
This session provides a comprehensive overview of the latest updates to the Uniform Administrative Requirements, Cost Principles, and Audit Requirements for Federal Awards (commonly known as the Uniform Guidance) outlined in the 2 CFR 200.
With a focus on the 2024 revisions issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), participants will gain insight into the key changes affecting federal grant recipients. The session will delve into critical regulatory updates, providing attendees with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate and comply with the evolving landscape of federal grant management.
Learning Objectives:
- Understand the rationale behind the 2024 updates to the Uniform Guidance outlined in 2 CFR 200, and their implications for federal grant recipients.
- Identify the key changes and revisions introduced by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the 2024 edition of 2 CFR 200.
- Gain proficiency in applying the updated regulations to ensure compliance with federal grant requirements and avoid potential audit findings.
- Develop strategies for effectively implementing the new guidelines within the grant management processes of their respective organizations, fostering efficiency and accountability in federal grant administration.
1. Congressional Budget Office
Presentation at the University of Oregon
Lundquist College of Business, College of Arts and Sciences, and
Wayne Morse Center for Law and Politics
April 22, 2019
Keith Hall, Director
The 2019 Budget and Economic Outlook
This presentation draws on The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 (January 2019), www.cbo.gov/publication/54918.
2. 1
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Shaded vertical bars
indicate periods of recession.
Deficits
5. 4
CBO
Growth is measured from the average of one calendar year to the next. GDP = gross domestic product.
Growth of Real GDP
Percent 2019 2020
Middle Two-Thirds of the Range of
Estimates From the January 2019 Blue Chip
Survey of Private-Sector Forecasters
2.4 – 2.8 1.5 – 2.3
CBO 2.7 1.9
6. 5
CBO
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. GDP = gross domestic product.
Real GDP and Potential Real GDP
7. 6
CBO
GDP = gross domestic product.
Factors Underlying the Growth of Potential GDP
8. 7
CBO
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
The Unemployment Rate and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
9. 8
CBO
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. PCE = personal consumption expenditures.
Inflation
12. 11
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Deficits
13. 12
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Revenues and Outlays
14. 13
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Federal Outlays, by Category
15. 14
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Major Changes in Projected Outlays From 2019 to 2029
16. 15
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Outlays for People Age 65 or Older
as a Share of Total Noninterest Outlays
18. 17
CBO
Other revenue sources consist of excise taxes, remittances from the Federal Reserve System, customs duties, estate and gift taxes, and miscellaneous fees and fines.
Revenues, by Major Source
20. 19
CBO
If productivity growth turned out to be half a
percentage point higher from 2020 to 2029
than CBO projects, deficits would average
3.7 percent of GDP instead of 4.4 percent.
If interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes
were 3.0 percent (rather than averaging
3.7 percent as in CBO’s 10-year forecast),
deficits would average 4.0 percent of GDP
(instead of 4.4 percent).
21. 20
CBO
On net, in CBO’s baseline, the 2017 tax act
increases the deficit by $1.9 trillion from 2018
to 2028, including debt-service costs.
That estimate includes the effects of economic
changes resulting from the act, which offset
30 percent of the impact on the primary
deficit and
20 percent of the total impact on the deficit
including debt-service costs.
22. 21
CBO
Real bracket creep is the process in which, as income rises faster than inflation, an ever-larger proportion of income becomes subject to higher tax rates.
Growth in Individual Income Tax Receipts
in CBO’s Baseline Projections
24. 23
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Projected Deficits Under CBO’s Baseline
and an Alternative Fiscal Scenario