On The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029

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Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 35th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference. Federal debt is already large, and budget deficits over the next decade and beyond are projected to keep pushing it up in relation to the size of the economy. Eventually, debt as a share of economic output would reach its highest level in our nation’s history.

Government & Nonprofit

Congressional Budget Office
A Presentation to the National Association of Business Economists
February 28, 2019
Keith Hall, Director
On The Budget and Economic Outlook:
2019 to 2029
For more details, see www.cbo.gov/publication/54918.

1
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Shaded vertical bars
indicate periods of recession.
Deficits

4
CBO
Growth is measured from the average of one calendar year to the next. GDP = gross domestic product.
Growth of Real GDP
Percent 2019 2020
Middle Two-Thirds of the Range of
Estimates From the January 2019 Blue Chip
Survey of Private-Sector Forecasters
2.4 – 2.8 1.5 – 2.3
CBO 2.7 1.9

5
CBO
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. GDP = gross domestic product.
Real GDP and Potential Real GDP

6
CBO
GDP = gross domestic product.
Factors Underlying the Growth of Potential GDP

7
CBO
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
The Unemployment Rate and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

8
CBO
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
Inflation

9
CBO
Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession.
Interest Rates

11
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Deficits

12
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Revenues and Outlays

13
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Federal Outlays, by Category

14
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Major Changes in Projected Outlays From 2019 to 2029

15
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Outlays for People Age 65 or Older
as a Share of Total Noninterest Outlays

17
CBO
Other revenue sources consist of excise taxes, remittances from the Federal Reserve System, customs duties, estate and gift taxes, and miscellaneous fees and fines.
Revenues, by Major Source

19
CBO
If productivity growth turned out to be half a
percentage point higher from 2020 to 2029
than CBO projects, deficits would average
3.7 percent of GDP instead of 4.4 percent.
If interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes
were 3.0 percent (rather than averaging
3.7 percent as in CBO’s 10-year forecast),
deficits would average 4.0 percent of GDP
(instead of 4.4 percent).

20
CBO
On net, in CBO’s baseline, the 2017 tax act
increases the deficit by $1.9 trillion from 2018
to 2028, including debt-service costs.
That estimate includes the effects of economic
changes resulting from the act, which offset
• 30 percent of the impact on the primary
deficit and
• 20 percent of the total impact on the deficit
including debt-service costs.

21
CBO
Real bracket creep is the process in which, as income rises faster than inflation, an ever-larger proportion of income becomes subject to higher tax rates.
Growth in Individual Income Tax Receipts
in CBO’s Baseline Projections

22
CBO
Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend.
Projected Deficits Under CBO’s Baseline
and an Alternative Fiscal Scenario

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CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050. Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.

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In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending. Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past. Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the American Business Conference.

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On The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029

1. Congressional Budget Office A Presentation to the National Association of Business Economists February 28, 2019 Keith Hall, Director On The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029 For more details, see www.cbo.gov/publication/54918.

2. 1 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. Deficits

3. 2 CBO Debt Held by the Public

4. 3 CBO Economic Projections

5. 4 CBO Growth is measured from the average of one calendar year to the next. GDP = gross domestic product. Growth of Real GDP Percent 2019 2020 Middle Two-Thirds of the Range of Estimates From the January 2019 Blue Chip Survey of Private-Sector Forecasters 2.4 – 2.8 1.5 – 2.3 CBO 2.7 1.9

6. 5 CBO Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. GDP = gross domestic product. Real GDP and Potential Real GDP

7. 6 CBO GDP = gross domestic product. Factors Underlying the Growth of Potential GDP

8. 7 CBO Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. The Unemployment Rate and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

9. 8 CBO Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. Inflation

10. 9 CBO Shaded vertical bars indicate periods of recession. Interest Rates

11. 10 CBO Budget Projections

12. 11 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Deficits

13. 12 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Revenues and Outlays

14. 13 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Federal Outlays, by Category

15. 14 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Major Changes in Projected Outlays From 2019 to 2029

16. 15 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Outlays for People Age 65 or Older as a Share of Total Noninterest Outlays

17. 16 CBO Total Revenues

18. 17 CBO Other revenue sources consist of excise taxes, remittances from the Federal Reserve System, customs duties, estate and gift taxes, and miscellaneous fees and fines. Revenues, by Major Source

19. 18 CBO Debt Held by the Public

20. 19 CBO If productivity growth turned out to be half a percentage point higher from 2020 to 2029 than CBO projects, deficits would average 3.7 percent of GDP instead of 4.4 percent. If interest rates on 10-year Treasury notes were 3.0 percent (rather than averaging 3.7 percent as in CBO’s 10-year forecast), deficits would average 4.0 percent of GDP (instead of 4.4 percent).

21. 20 CBO On net, in CBO’s baseline, the 2017 tax act increases the deficit by $1.9 trillion from 2018 to 2028, including debt-service costs. That estimate includes the effects of economic changes resulting from the act, which offset • 30 percent of the impact on the primary deficit and • 20 percent of the total impact on the deficit including debt-service costs.

22. 21 CBO Real bracket creep is the process in which, as income rises faster than inflation, an ever-larger proportion of income becomes subject to higher tax rates. Growth in Individual Income Tax Receipts in CBO’s Baseline Projections

23. 22 CBO Values are adjusted to exclude the effects of shifts in the timing of payments that occur when October 1 (the first day of the fiscal year) falls on a weekend. Projected Deficits Under CBO’s Baseline and an Alternative Fiscal Scenario

On The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2019 to 2029

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