A chart talk from The Concord Coalition analyzing the fiscal challenges facing the US before COVID, and how the economic impact of COVID and the federal response has made that situation even more difficult.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
In 2020, CBO estimates a deficit of $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under current law, the projected gap between outlays and revenues increases to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise over the coming decade, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030. It continues to grow thereafter, in CBO’s projections, reaching 180 percent of GDP in 2050, well above the highest level ever recorded in the United States.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
In 2020, CBO estimates a deficit of $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Under current law, the projected gap between outlays and revenues increases to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise over the coming decade, from 81 percent of GDP in 2020 to 98 percent of GDP in 2030. It continues to grow thereafter, in CBO’s projections, reaching 180 percent of GDP in 2050, well above the highest level ever recorded in the United States.
CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit in 2020 will be $1.0 trillion, or 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). It would increase to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2030 if current law did not change. In CBO’s projections, federal debt held by the public reaches $17.9 trillion at the end of 2020. That amount equals 81 percent of GDP—more than twice its average over the past 50 years. By 2030, debt is projected to reach $31.4 trillion, or 98 percent of GDP, a larger percentage than at any time since just after World War II. It would continue to grow after 2030, reaching 180 percent of GDP by 2050.
Inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent this year, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output in 2020 to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. CBO projects that continued strength in the demand for labor will keep the unemployment rate low and drive employment and wages higher. Then over the coming decade, the economy is projected to expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent, roughly the same rate as its potential rate of growth.
Covid-compressed incomes? The past, present and future of crisis-hit living s...ResolutionFoundation
The coronavirus public health crisis has prompted the biggest economic downturn in a century, the sharpest rise in benefit claims since records began, and a £190 billion policy response. These are big numbers and stark records, but what do they all amount to for the economic measure that matters the most – households’ disposable incomes?
Who has borne the brunt of the crisis so far, and who has the Government helped the most? How much difference has policy made? And what comes next for household living standards, particularly for families on low-to-middle incomes?
The Resolution Foundation is hosting an interactive webinar to debate and answer these questions. It will begin by presenting the highlights from its annual Living Standards Audit that examines the impact of the crisis on household incomes, before hearing from leading experts – including Shadow Chancellor Anneliese Dodds – on what should be done to both safeguard and lift living standards in the next phase of the crisis. Viewers will be able to submit questions to the panel before and during the event.
In 2020, inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output this year to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. Continued strength in the demand for labor keeps the unemployment rate low and drives employment and wages higher. If current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained in place, the economy would expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent over the next decade, roughly the same rate as its potential growth.
From its controversial introduction 20 years ago, the National Minimum Wage has gone from strength to strength, including with the more ambitious National Living Wage introduced in 2016. Next year the UK will have one of the highest wage floors in the world, but the future path of the minimum wage in the 2020s remains undecided.
With widespread support for further minimum wage rises the Chancellor has announced that he wants to end low pay altogether, and has appointed world-leading minimum wage expert Professor Arin Dube to review the evidence of minimum wage impacts around the world. So, as the UK heads towards the top of the international minimum wage league table, where should the UK’s wage floor go from here?
Can the minimum wage be increased further? What is the right pace of increases to balance the benefits of higher wages with risks to jobs? What would further rises mean for the growing share of the workforce on the legal minimum? Which sectors and parts of the country would be most affected?
At the event to mark the launch of Professor Arin Dube’s review we heard from him and a Senior Cabinet Minister. The Resolution Foundation also presented new research on the future of the minimum wage from its Low Pay Britain report.
Speakers
Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond MP
Professor Arin Dube, Chair of the government’s review of the impacts of Minimum Wage
Professor Sarah Brown, Professor of Economics at Sheffield University and LPC member
Dr Kathleen Henehan, Policy Analyst at the Resolution Foundation
Torsten Bell, Director of the Resolution Foundation
On Friday, 15th October 2021, ESRI researcher
Barra Roantree, Research Officer presented these slides as part of our annual post-Budget briefing.
See more here: https://www.esri.ie/events/post-budget-briefing
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 35th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference.
Federal debt is already large, and budget deficits over the next decade and beyond are projected to keep pushing it up in relation to the size of the economy. Eventually, debt as a share of economic output would reach its highest level in our nation’s history.
Labour are promising a radical reform agenda – from free university education to reversing elements of the austerity that has taken place over the past decade. But radical reforms don’t come cheap and sit alongside demographic headwinds that mean the annual cost of simply maintaining the status quo for our welfare state will rise by £36bn by the end of the decade. In response the Party has set out proposals for significant increases in taxation, including higher rates of income and corporation tax. But the party has also promised to only increase taxes for the top 5% of households.
Will Labour’s tax plans bring in the revenue intended, and will they be sufficient to pay for the rising cost of our existing welfare state? How will it ensure that it’s tax policy is fair, robust and well targeted? And how will Labour’s plans contrast with those of a new Conservative leader committed to cutting taxes?
Start: 6:00 pm
End: 7:30 pm
Location: Hilton Brighton Metropole, Kings Rd, Brighton BN1 2FU
Room: Clarence
Speakers:
Torsten Bell (Chair) – CEO of the Resolution Foundation
Rachel Reeves MP, Member for Leeds West
James Meadway, former economic policy advisor to the Shadow Chancellor
Anneliese Dodds MP, Shadow Treasury Minister
Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the American Business Conference.
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Fixed Income Forum 2019 Spring Roundtable.
Covid-compressed incomes? The past, present and future of crisis-hit living s...ResolutionFoundation
The coronavirus public health crisis has prompted the biggest economic downturn in a century, the sharpest rise in benefit claims since records began, and a £190 billion policy response. These are big numbers and stark records, but what do they all amount to for the economic measure that matters the most – households’ disposable incomes?
Who has borne the brunt of the crisis so far, and who has the Government helped the most? How much difference has policy made? And what comes next for household living standards, particularly for families on low-to-middle incomes?
The Resolution Foundation is hosting an interactive webinar to debate and answer these questions. It will begin by presenting the highlights from its annual Living Standards Audit that examines the impact of the crisis on household incomes, before hearing from leading experts – including Shadow Chancellor Anneliese Dodds – on what should be done to both safeguard and lift living standards in the next phase of the crisis. Viewers will be able to submit questions to the panel before and during the event.
In 2020, inflation-adjusted GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent, largely because of continued strength in consumer spending and a rebound in business fixed investment. Output is projected to be higher than the economy’s maximum sustainable output this year to a greater degree than it has been in recent years, leading to higher inflation and interest rates after a period in which both were low, on average. Continued strength in the demand for labor keeps the unemployment rate low and drives employment and wages higher. If current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remained in place, the economy would expand at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent over the next decade, roughly the same rate as its potential growth.
From its controversial introduction 20 years ago, the National Minimum Wage has gone from strength to strength, including with the more ambitious National Living Wage introduced in 2016. Next year the UK will have one of the highest wage floors in the world, but the future path of the minimum wage in the 2020s remains undecided.
With widespread support for further minimum wage rises the Chancellor has announced that he wants to end low pay altogether, and has appointed world-leading minimum wage expert Professor Arin Dube to review the evidence of minimum wage impacts around the world. So, as the UK heads towards the top of the international minimum wage league table, where should the UK’s wage floor go from here?
Can the minimum wage be increased further? What is the right pace of increases to balance the benefits of higher wages with risks to jobs? What would further rises mean for the growing share of the workforce on the legal minimum? Which sectors and parts of the country would be most affected?
At the event to mark the launch of Professor Arin Dube’s review we heard from him and a Senior Cabinet Minister. The Resolution Foundation also presented new research on the future of the minimum wage from its Low Pay Britain report.
Speakers
Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond MP
Professor Arin Dube, Chair of the government’s review of the impacts of Minimum Wage
Professor Sarah Brown, Professor of Economics at Sheffield University and LPC member
Dr Kathleen Henehan, Policy Analyst at the Resolution Foundation
Torsten Bell, Director of the Resolution Foundation
On Friday, 15th October 2021, ESRI researcher
Barra Roantree, Research Officer presented these slides as part of our annual post-Budget briefing.
See more here: https://www.esri.ie/events/post-budget-briefing
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, at the 35th Annual NABE Economic Policy Conference.
Federal debt is already large, and budget deficits over the next decade and beyond are projected to keep pushing it up in relation to the size of the economy. Eventually, debt as a share of economic output would reach its highest level in our nation’s history.
Labour are promising a radical reform agenda – from free university education to reversing elements of the austerity that has taken place over the past decade. But radical reforms don’t come cheap and sit alongside demographic headwinds that mean the annual cost of simply maintaining the status quo for our welfare state will rise by £36bn by the end of the decade. In response the Party has set out proposals for significant increases in taxation, including higher rates of income and corporation tax. But the party has also promised to only increase taxes for the top 5% of households.
Will Labour’s tax plans bring in the revenue intended, and will they be sufficient to pay for the rising cost of our existing welfare state? How will it ensure that it’s tax policy is fair, robust and well targeted? And how will Labour’s plans contrast with those of a new Conservative leader committed to cutting taxes?
Start: 6:00 pm
End: 7:30 pm
Location: Hilton Brighton Metropole, Kings Rd, Brighton BN1 2FU
Room: Clarence
Speakers:
Torsten Bell (Chair) – CEO of the Resolution Foundation
Rachel Reeves MP, Member for Leeds West
James Meadway, former economic policy advisor to the Shadow Chancellor
Anneliese Dodds MP, Shadow Treasury Minister
Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Keith Hall, CBO Director, to the American Business Conference.
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, an Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the Fixed Income Forum 2019 Spring Roundtable.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Robert Arnold, and Joshua Shakin, CBO Unit Chiefs, at a joint seminar by CBO and the Congressional Research Service.
In CBO’s projections, the federal budget deficit is about $900 billion in 2019 and exceeds $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022. Over the coming decade, deficits (after adjustments to exclude shifts in the timing of certain payments) fluctuate between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the average over the past 50 years. CBO’s projection of the deficit for 2019 is now $75 billion less—and its projection of the cumulative deficit over the 2019–2028 period, $1.2 trillion less—than it was in spring 2018. That reduction in projected deficits results primarily from legislative changes—most notably, a decrease in emergency spending.
Because of persistently large deficits, federal debt held by the public is projected to grow steadily, reaching 93 percent of GDP in 2029 (its highest level since just after World War II) and about 150 percent of GDP in 2049—far higher than it has ever been. Moreover, if lawmakers amended current laws to maintain certain policies now in place, even larger increases in debt would ensue.
Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019—down from 3.1 percent in 2018—as the effects of the 2017 tax act on the growth of business investment wane and federal purchases, as projected under current law, decline sharply in the fourth quarter of 2019. Nevertheless, output is projected to grow slightly faster than its maximum sustainable level this year, continuing to boost the demand for labor and to push down the unemployment rate. After 2019, annual economic growth is projected to slow further—to an average of 1.7 percent through 2023, which is below CBO’s projection of potential growth for that period. From 2024 to 2029, economic growth and potential growth are projected to average 1.8 percent per year—less than their long-term historical averages, primarily because the labor force is expected to grow more slowly than it has in the past.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Rarely has there been more uncertainty regarding the course of the public finances over the next five years. In this note we aim to answer some of the big questions for the economy in light of the 2021 budget.
Presentation by Christina Hawley Anthony, Chief of the Projections Unit in CBO’s Budget Analysis Division, to the National Conference of State Legislatures Base Camp.
An update by the Department of Revenue on the FY21 & 22 revenue outlook and the oil tax credit obligations reverting to the state following the Supreme Court's rejection of HB331.
The 2017 tax act changed the corporate income tax rate, international taxes, the taxation of domestic business activity, individual income taxes, and estate and gift taxes. It also eliminated the penalty for not having health insurance and required the use of an alternative inflation measure to adjust tax provisions.
Those changes will have effects on the economy’s productivity and output, income, and the federal budget, all of which are reflected in CBO’s baseline economic and budget projections.
Presentation by Wendy Edelberg, Associate Director for Economic Analysis at CBO, at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Originally posted to SlideShare on April 13, 2017. CBO reposted this presentation with a corrected value of 0.9 million jobs for the effect of the 2017 tax act on average nonfarm payroll employment during the 2018–2028 period (see slide 13).
This presentation provides an overview of the agency’s most recent budget and economic projections, which incorporate the assumption that current laws governing taxes and spending generally remain unchanged. In those projections, federal debt held by the public grows sharply over the next 30 years, reaching unprecedented levels. The presentation also includes a discussion of the effects of the 2017 tax act and recent changes to federal spending policy on the projections. In addition, the presentation touches on budgetary outcomes under scenarios that include future changes to current law.
Presentation by John McClelland, CBO’s Assistant Director for Tax Analysis, at the International Tax Policy Forum.
Testimony before HRES on South Central GasBrad Keithley
By invitation, we testified before the Alaska House Resources Committee on March 15, 2024, on Southcentral Gas Supply. The presentation was part of the Committee's look into the implications of the challenges currently facing Cook Inlet gas supplies.
The presentation addressed both energy and fiscal policy. Our theme was simple: " Let the market decide" and no subsidies. But if there are subsidies, they should be paid for other than through PFD cuts.
The slide-deck we used is attached here. The hearing itself is available at https://bit.ly/48YyBFf.
Presentation to Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations ...Brad Keithley
Our September 27, 2022, presentation to the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Govt Relations Comm on Alaska's current fiscal situation and our views on the positions of the candidates for Alaska Governor in response.
Comments in opposition to SB 199 & SB 200 (2.20.2022)Brad Keithley
The comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets in opposition to Senate Finance Committee bills SB 199 & SB 200, which propose to substantially restructure and cut the Permanent Fund Dividend.
HB 202 (HFIN): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable BudgetsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets with the House Finance Committee on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) proposing a restructuring of and cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
HB 202 & HB 37 (Statutory PFD Reductions): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainab...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 202 (Rep. Merrick) & HB 37 (Rep. Wool) proposing (and in the case of HB 37, some substitute revenues to reduce the level of) cuts in the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD).
HB 189 (Employment Tax for Education): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable B...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HB 189, the House Ways & Means Committee bill which would establish an employment tax for education.
HFIN CS for HB69 (work draft presented 4.23.2021): Comments of Alaskans for S...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HFIN CS for HB69, the House Finance Committee's proposed committee substitute for HB69, the Governor's proposed operating budget.
SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets Comments ...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR6/SB53 (HJR7/HB73), the Governor's proposed Constitutional Amendments relating to the Alaska permanent fund, appropriations from the permanent fund, and the permanent fund dividend.
HJR1 & HB165: Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets CommentsBrad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on HJR 1 & HB165, Rep. Kreiss-Tomkin's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
SJR 1 (Guarantee Perm Fund Dividend): Comments of Alaskans for Sustainable Bu...Brad Keithley
Comments filed on behalf of Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets on SJR 1, Sen. Wielechowski's proposed Constitutional Amendment to Guarantee the Permanent Fund Dividend
Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Income & Jobs (Supplement to 3.4.2021 Le...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the impact of the PFDcuts discussed there on Alaska income & jobs.
Distributional Impact of Proposed PFDCuts on Alaska Families by Income Bracke...Brad Keithley
This presentation is to supplement the 3.4.2021 LegFin Presentation to the Senate Finance Committee to analyze the distributional impact by income bracket of the level of PFDcuts discussed there.
Analysis by the Legislative Finance Division of Alaska's fiscal position: how we got here, where we are and where we are headed under various alternatives.
Upcoming Federal Fiscal Deadlines (10.20.2020)Brad Keithley
An important fact to know in thinking about federal fiscal policy is when are the upcoming "action forcing" events -- the dates on which, if Congress does not act, there are serious fiscal consequences. As part of a larger presentation the Concord Coalition's National Policy Director, Tori Gorman, recently complied a list of those dates. Here is the slide deck.
role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
Welcome to the new Mizzima Weekly !
Mizzima Media Group is pleased to announce the relaunch of Mizzima Weekly. Mizzima is dedicated to helping our readers and viewers keep up to date on the latest developments in Myanmar and related to Myanmar by offering analysis and insight into the subjects that matter. Our websites and our social media channels provide readers and viewers with up-to-the-minute and up-to-date news, which we don’t necessarily need to replicate in our Mizzima Weekly magazine. But where we see a gap is in providing more analysis, insight and in-depth coverage of Myanmar, that is of particular interest to a range of readers.
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Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
ys jagan mohan reddy political career, Biography.pdfVoterMood
Yeduguri Sandinti Jagan Mohan Reddy, often referred to as Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy, is an Indian politician who currently serves as the Chief Minister of the state of Andhra Pradesh. He was born on December 21, 1972, in Pulivendula, Andhra Pradesh, to Yeduguri Sandinti Rajasekhara Reddy (popularly known as YSR), a former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, and Y.S. Vijayamma.
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Future Of Fintech In India | Evolution Of Fintech In IndiaTheUnitedIndian
Navigating the Future of Fintech in India: Insights into how AI, blockchain, and digital payments are driving unprecedented growth in India's fintech industry, redefining financial services and accessibility.
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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2. Before COVID-19, federal debt was already
approaching record levels
Source: Congressional Budget Office THE CONCORD COALITION
Percent
World War I
Great Depression
World War II
Great Recession
3. Caused by a long-standing structural imbalance
between revenues and spending
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Update to the Budget Outlook, September 2020 THE CONCORD COALITION
Outlays
Revenues
Projected
Average 1970-2019: 20.4%
Average 1970-2019: 17.4%
23.0%
17.8%
●
●
4. Unemployment jumped 10 points in one month
and still remains historically high
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Unemployment Situation Report THE CONCORD COALITION
5. The COVID-induced recession is deep
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis THE CONCORD COALITION
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2018 2019 2020
6. The federal fiscal response to COVID-19 has been
significant but appropriate
THE CONCORD COALITION
March 18
H.R.6201
Family First
Coronavirus
Response Act
$192 billion
March 27
$1,721
billion
H.R.748
Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act
March 6
$8 b
H.R.6704
Coronavirus
Preparedness
and Response
Supplemental
Act
April 24
$483 billion
H.R.266
Paycheck Protection
and Health Care
Enhancement Act
7. With significant consequences on near-term
budget deficits
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Update to the Budget Outlook, September 2020 THE CONCORD COALITION
March
Baseline
March
Baseline
COVID-19
+ Interest
COVID-19
+ Interest
Trillions
$1.1 T
$2.0 T
$1.0 T
$0.8 T
$3.1 T
$1.8 T
8. Post-COVID, a record no one wants
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Update to the Budget Outlook, September 2020 THE CONCORD COALITION
Projected
9. Our nation’s fiscal challenges do not end with
COVID-19
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook, September 2020 THE CONCORD COALITION
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Projected
Waning Budgetary
Effects of COVID-19
Percent
-12.6
-4.6
10. Growing deficits and debt remain long after the
budgetary effects of COVID are gone
THE CONCORD COALITION
2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
195
78
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook, September 2020
11. Entitlements and interest costs drive spending
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook, September 2020 THE CONCORD COALITION
12. Revenue growth is constrained by factors
affecting output
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook, September 2020
THE CONCORD COALITION
Potential Labor Force Size
Potential Labor Force
Productivity
Percent
2.4
1.6
13. Change in Revenues as a Percent of GDP
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook, September 2020 THE CONCORD COALITION
Percent
Expiring tax provisions
*Other
Real bracket creep (wage growth > economic growth)
*COVID response, rising taxable retirement income, faster earnings growth among higher income earners,
rising cost of non-taxable fringe benefits
14. Delay makes policy solutions more
challenging
Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook, September 2020 THE CONCORD COALITION
Deficit reduction needed
by starting in fiscal year…
…to reach debt equal to 2019 level in 2050 (79% GDP)
…to reach debt equal to 2020 level of GDP in 2050 (100% GDP)$730 billion savings in yr 1
$900 billion savings in yr 1
15. Why should YOU care about the debt?
• Like climate change, once debt becomes a conspicuous problem, it may be too late.
• Rising debt reduces the fiscal space needed to respond to the next crisis (natural
disasters, war, pandemic)
• Interest costs, even under low interest rates, will grow and crowd out needed
investments (student loan reform, green energy, broadband)
• Politicians have strong incentives to leave the debt problem for future generations
– an irresponsible and immoral legacy to leave for our children
• We can change this trajectory by demanding answers and action from our
elected officials.
THE CONCORD COALITION