Thailand: A Comprehensive Policy to Tackle Covid-19 and Future Pandemic
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The document discusses Thailand's policy approach to tackling the Covid-19 pandemic and preparing for future pandemics. It notes that Thailand has capable healthcare resources and systems like village health volunteers, but lacks a comprehensive biodefense plan. Thailand implemented decisive containment policies early on by following WHO guidelines and internal advice. This led to cheaper and more effective results than seen in some countries. The document recommends Thailand consider strategies like "bubble tourism", rapid testing, surveillance systems, and developing a stronger biodefense program to better prepare for future pandemics.
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Thailand: A Comprehensive Policy to Tackle Covid-19 and Future Pandemic
- 1. Thailand: A Comprehensive Policy to Tackle Covid-19 and Future Pandemic Kan Yuenyong October 12, 2020; GSPA/NIDA DA8020: Policy Studies and Analysis
- 2. y = 899.33e0.0161x y = 478.3e0.0174x y = 628.56e0.0159x y = 68.813e0.0274x 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 1800 1803 1806 1809 1812 1815 1818 1821 1824 1827 1830 1833 1836 1839 1842 1845 1848 1851 1854 1857 1860 1863 1866 1869 1872 1875 1878 1881 1884 1887 1890 1893 1896 1899 1902 1905 1908 1911 1914 1917 1920 1923 1926 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 USA Germany France UK USSR Japan China Expon. (USA) Expon. (Germany) Expon. (France) Expon. (UK) Expon. (Japan) WW I GD WW II End CW HC Spring of nations Spanish American war Nixon end dollar convertible with gold plaza accord League I League II League III 85 years cyclic?: Spanish Flu: February 1918 - April 1920; Great Depression: 1929-1939; Siamese Revolution: 1932; World War II: 1939 - 1945 https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2018
- 21. A study by Lt. Col. Joel O. Almosara, "Biotechnology: Genetically Engineered Pathogens" at the USAF Counterproliferation Center has elaborated more details, since those JASON' reports are unclassified. The study should influence a crafting of a "69-page National Security Council playbook on fighting pandemics" in 2017. The birth of Biological Technologies Office (BTO) at DARPA in 2014 which sponsors the Pandemic Prevention Platform (P3) should be also in line with these JASON's studies. The P3 program has heavily played a critical role to build a preparedness platform in a coming of vaccines such as Moderna's mRNA-1273, therapeutic antibody platform by Eli Lilly and AbCellera, Therapeutic Antibodies (Monoclonal antibody, mAbs) platform by AstraZenaca, and also CRISPR-Cas13 diagnotic testkit by Sherlock.
- 24. Sergei Popov with State Research of Virology and Biotechnology (Vector) https://covid19healthdiaries.com/diary?did=172
- 30. USA Case: Expensive & Ineffective? • Capable health resources (No.1 in Global Health Security Index) • Comprehensive Biodefense/Biosecurity plan + tabletop exercise • Severe impact on Covid-19 both infections and economic downturns • Incapable leadership + polarized politics + individualism culture • Incompatible between federal policy vs state policy • 2020 Presidential Election & Too much worrying on economic performance • Fakenews
- 31. Two decades of pandemic war games failed to account for Donald Trump • Confusion emerged in most pandemic simulations, but none explored the consequences of a White House sidelining its own public-health agency. Perhaps they should have, suggests a scientist who has worked in the US public-health system for decades and asked to remain anonymous because they did not have permission to speak to the press. “You need gas in the engine and the brakes to work, but if the driver doesn’t want to use the car, you’re not going anywhere,” the scientist says. • By contrast, New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea showed that it was possible to contain the virus, says Scott Dowell, an infectious-disease specialist at the Gates Foundation who spent 21 years at the CDC and has participated in several simulations. The places that have done well with COVID-19 had “early, decisive action by their government leaders” he says. Cameron agrees: “It’s not that the US doesn’t have the right tools — it’s that we aren’t choosing to use them.” • Now, the United States has experienced a tragedy, too. The daily number of new COVID-19 cases broke records throughout much of July, after many states attempted to reopen their economies. Frieden says that one of the most crucial actions now is for health departments to strengthen their response systems by analysing data in real time, so that they can tailor interventions as needed. “The best public-health programme is a programme that uses real-time data to make real-time decisions,” he says. “Real life is our exercise.” https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02277-6
- 33. Compartmental models in epidemiology: SIR Model
- 42. Thailand Case: Cheaper & Better? • Capable Health Resources (No. 6 on GHS Index), Limited health resources, Outside Health Innovation Dependence, i.e. Vaccine (some development such as vaccine + CRISPR diagnostic kit) • Village Health Volunteer (VHV or อสม) + Thai Fight Apps + Good Informing of Situation • No Comprehensive Biodefense/Biosecurity plan • Decisive Covid-19 Containment Policy (Follows WHO/Metagovernance + Internal Advice) • Emergency Declaration + Common Value • Polarized politics • Poor Economic Management • Can export-dependent economy resilient enough to cover multiple Bioterrorism?
- 43. Recommendation • How to handle with supply shock in early phase? • Should we engage “bubble tourism”? • Should we apply “rapid test kit”? (that can comply standard RT-PCR) • On flight check-in (inbound & outbound) • On massive test + surveillance system instead of contact tracing • Help easing ASEAN neighboring countries • How about emergency declaration? (can we operate under pandemic law?) • Should we develop more comprehensive Biodefense + Biosecurity program to handle next pandemic whether by means of natural disease or synthetic virus? Or should we rely on metagovernance?
- 44. Q/A END