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Public Services and Austerity

The document discusses public perceptions of service quality in the UK amid government austerity measures, revealing a decline in the perceived quality of public services, particularly health and social care, while concern over future cuts has decreased. Most respondents feel unaffected by the cuts, although more believe services have worsened overall. Sentiment around education and skills remains mixed, with young people's opportunities viewed pessimistically despite some optimism about skills in the workforce.

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Public services and austerity October 2015 Contacts: bobby.duffy@ipsos.com gideon.skinner@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
OVERALL VIEWS OF PUBLIC SERVICES AND THE CUTS • Three in four say they have been little affected by the cuts. Now many fewer think they have been affected than in 2012, and concern about the future impact of cuts has also dropped since then. • This is despite more people thinking that public services have got worse overall than better – though there has been no change about this since 2013. • Most also disagree that the government’s policies will improve public services – although this was similar under New Labour.
3 People do not think they are being affected by cuts – big increase in those “not at all” affected AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT HAS ANNOUNCED A NUMBER OF SPENDING CUTS TO HELP REDUCE THE NATIONAL DEBT TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, HAVE YOU AND YOUR FAMILY BEEN AFFECTED BY THE CUTS SO FAR? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI 8% 8% 25% 15% 49% 39% 10% 37% 8% 2% November 2012 August 2015 A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know 76%23% 59%33%
4 And concern about future effects of cuts decreased significantly… AND HOW CONCERNED, IF AT ALL, ARE YOU ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF THE CUTS ON YOU AND YOUR FAMILY IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI 19% 19% 42% 27% 28% 30% 5% 22% 6% 1% November 2012 August 2015 Very concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know 52%46% 33%61%
5 This is despite people being more likely to think services have got worse than better – though no change from two years ago Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC SERVICES OVERALL, DO YOU THINK THE QUALITY OF PUBLIC SERVICES HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll 3% 4% 12% 12% 42% 39% 20% 23% 20% 20% 3% 3% September 2013 September 2015 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know 16% 40%15% 43%
6 And most still disagree the government has the right policies for public services (although was similar under Labour) On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain's public services. Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ every month Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jun-01 Nov-01 Apr-02 Sep-02 Feb-03 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 56 37Agree Disagree
HEALTH SERVICES • More people think health and social care services have got worse than in 2013. • Users of health services remain as divided over service quality as two years ago, while users of GPs have become more negative. • Most (55%) are concerned about the future of the NHS. This is the highest level of concern since we began measuring in 2002.
Public is seeing more decline in quality of health and social care than they were two years ago 8 4% 2% 11% 7% 11% 10% 7% 11% 16% 17% 18% 17% 22% 27% 36% 34% 41% 33% 10% 16% 14% 19% 14% 19% 12% 20% 16% 16% 14% 19% 44% 24% 7% 7% 2% 3% 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know GP surgeries Hospitals Care for the elderly Base: 1,006 British adults 18 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 27% 38% 29% 28% 24% 35% 27% 30% 13% 36% 11% 22%
Users also on balance negative – more so in the case of GPs 9 9% 5% 11% 7% 10% 10% 13% 17% 16% 19% 19% 17% 27% 30% 36% 33% 42% 32% 13% 15% 15% 19% 14% 20% 19% 26% 17% 17% 14% 19% 12% 7% 5% 5% 1% 2% 2013 (210) 2015 (172) 2013 (888) 2015 (807) 2013 (938) 2015 (904) Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Users of GP surgeries Users of hospitals Users of care for the elderly Base: All whose household benefits from named service 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? (ALL WHOSE HOUSEHOLD BENEFITS FROM SERVICE) 27% 39% 29% 28% 26% 36% 27% 32% 22% 41% 22% 32%
10 And when asked about the future of the NHS… most are concerned THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE NHS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 4% 15% 23% 32% 23% 2% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 19% 55%
… and this is the highest ever proportion expecting it to get worse Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 11THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE NHS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Jul-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 55 19 Better Worse
EDUCATION AND SKILLS • Overall, perceptions of schools and colleges more positive than negative, but have become less optimistic over the last two years – including among users • Perceptions of universities, though, are more negative • People remain pessimistic about future opportunities for young people, but are more optimistic about skills than in 2008
Effect on universities largely unknown, but slightly more pessimism about schools and colleges than 2013 13 8% 9% 6% 20% 18% 8% 27% 30% 23% 9% 13% 13% 8% 9% 10% 29% 20% 40% 2013 Sep-15 Aug-15 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Universities Schools and colleges Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 14% 23% 27% 22% 28% 17%
Users of schools remain positive on balance, but less so than in 2013 14 12% 14% 11% 31% 23% 17% 27% 28% 29% 12% 17% 19% 10% 14% 17% 5% 4% 6% 2013 (419) Sep 2015 (413) Aug 2015 (242) Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Universities Schools and colleges Base: All whose household benefits from named service, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 28% 36% 37% 31% 43% 22%
15 We’re evenly split of whether education will to get better, worse or stay the same THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 5% 26% 32% 23% 9% 5% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 31% 32%
And no big shifts in expectations of education services: more negative than 2000s, but little shift since Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 16 THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 32 31 Better Worse
17 Public are more negative than positive about whether opportunities for young people will improve THINKING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOUNG PEOPLE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 5% 28% 19% 28% 17% 3% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 33% 45% Though 18-24s are the most optimistic about their opportunities improving over the next few years – 55% of 18-24s think young people’s opportunities will improve
Views of opportunities for young people also little changed since 2008 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 18 THINKING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOUNG PEOPLE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 45 33 Better Worse
19 Yet despite negativity about young people’s opportunities, they are more evenly split on skills THINKING ABOUT SKILLS IN BRITAIN’S WORKFORCE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 4% 33% 24% 25% 11% 5% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 37% 36%
And people increasingly optimistic on skills in Britain’s workforce compared with pessimism in 2008 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 20 THINKING ABOUT SKILLS IN BRITAIN’S WORKFORCE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 36 37 Better Worse
LOCAL SERVICES AND INFRASTRUCTURE • Local services not perceived to have taken a hit in quality in their bread-and- butter street-scene services – lighting, cleaning and bin collection. • Slight declines in perceived quality of local libraries and leisure centres, but still a minority are unhappy • Road maintenance remains the biggest bugbear (although not quite as bad as two years ago) • Perceptions of local bus services and public transport have also slightly deteriorated
13% 10% 27% 26% 7% 6% 8% 8% 16% 12% 21% 22% 12% 16% 12% 11% 45% 51% 37% 34% 54% 47% 58% 57% 11% 13% 6% 8% 10% 12% 9% 10% 12% 12% 6% 7% 11% 14% 8% 10% 3% 2% 3% 3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 2013 Aug-15 2013 Sep-15 2013 Aug-15 2013 Aug-15 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Street lighting Refuse collection Street cleaning Recycling collection No big shifts in views of local streetscene services – just slight increases in people saying they’ve got worse 22 Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 19% 20% 20% 17% 19% 26% 22% 15% 22% 21% 48% 25% 48% 12% 29% 23%
15% 12% 9% 7% 14% 10% 18% 20% 11% 12% 11% 14% 44% 46% 35% 35% 38% 33% 9% 10% 9% 14% 4% 9% 6% 6% 7% 9% 3% 6% 8% 6% 29% 23% 30% 29% 2013 Aug-15 2013 Sep-15 2013 Aug-15 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Leisure centres Parks and open spaces Libraries Slightly greater shifts towards thinking leisure centres and libraries have got worse – but relatively few noticing changes 23 Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 24% 15% 25% 7% 20% 23% 33% 16% 19% 16% 32% 15%
4% 4% 8% 8% 7% 10% 13% 11% 20% 28% 39% 37% 18% 18% 11% 14% 49% 39% 8% 11% 2% 2% 20% 20% 2013 Aug-15 2013 Aug-15 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Bus services Road maintenance Concern about road maintenance still very high, if lower than in 2015, but more likely to think bus services have got worse 24 Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 19% 25% 21% 19% 11% 57%14% 67%
13% 11% 17% 14% 20% 16% 12% 10% 15% 16% 19% 21% 16% 19% 17% 16% 35% 40% 47% 47% 49% 43% 45% 42% 13% 19% 10% 11% 5% 12% 14% 15% 10% 10% 6% 5% 4% 7% 8% 13% 7% 4% 1% 1% 5% 4% 3% 5% 2013 (562) 2015 (413) 2013 (795) 2015 (847) 2013 (525) 2015 (509) 2013 (632) 2015 (601) Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Bus services Leisure centres Parks and open space Libraries Users of local services tend to be more positive than non-users – little change in their views since 2013 25 Base: All whose household benefits from named service, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? (ALL WHOSE HOUSEHOLD BENEFITS FROM SERVICE) 26% 28% 29% 23% 35% 19% 36% 9% 32% 16% 28% 23% 35% 29%27% 16%
26 Expectations split on future of public transport THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 5% 21% 36% 24% 8% 6% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 26% 32%
Slight decline in optimism since 2008 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 27THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Jul-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 26 32 Better Worse
LOCAL POLICING • More saying that they feel quality of police has decreased now than in 2013 • Similarly, a third think quality of local policing will get worse in the next few years, and public is more pessimistic than during the 2000s.
5% 3% 10% 9% 43% 39% 15% 21% 13% 18% 13% 10% 2013 Sep-15 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know The police Fears about declining quality of the force have increased since 2013 29 Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 12% 39% 28%15%
30 A third also expect local policing to get worse in the next few years THINKING ABOUT THE WAY YOUR AREA IS POLICED OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 3% 12% 46% 26% 9% 4% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 15% 35%
People are more pessimistic about policing than in the 2000s Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 31 THINKING ABOUT THE WAY YOUR AREA IS POLICED OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 15 35 Better Worse
WELFARE • Concern about the effect of welfare cuts appears to be growing. Half say the cuts have gone too far – and even though on balance people think they have been necessary, they are less likely to think this than in 2013 • ABs remain the most likely to believe the cuts have been necessary, but much less than in 2013
33 31% 27% 16% 21% 12% 18% 16% 15% 21% 16% 4% 3% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know 2015 2013 Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? People more likely to agree than disagree that cuts to welfare gone too far… I THINK CUTS TO WELFARE AND BENEFITS HAVE GONE TOO FAR 48% 31% 37%47%
34 29% 22% 30% 25% 11% 16% 9% 17% 16% 17% 6% 3% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know 2015 2013 Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? …although they also think the cuts have been necessary – but less so than in 2013 I THINK REDUCTIONS IN SOCIAL WELFARE BENEFITS HAVE BEEN NECESSARY But people are not always consistent: eg 37% of those who think welfare cuts have gone too far also think that the reductions in benefits have been necessary 47% 34% 25%59%
35 40% 37% 25% 26% 16% 19% 17% 22% 11% 14% 11% 16% 10% 9% 18% 19% 18% 16% 26% 12% 6% 5% 4% 4% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know I think cuts to welfare and benefits have gone too far AB 2013 (334) Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? Social classes DE most likely to think welfare cuts gone too far, but ABs are moving more in line with them 42% 44% 25% 48% TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? DE 2013 (296) DE 2015 (245) AB 2015 (389) 56% 56% 31% 28%
36 23% 22% 38% 21% 27% 20% 27% 32% 11% 15% 9% 15% 10% 14% 11% 15% 22% 24% 10% 15% 8% 5% 5% 3% Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know I think reductions in social welfare benefits have been necessary AB 2013 (334) Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? Most ABs still think cuts to welfare are necessary but this attitude has softened since 2013 65% 21% 38% 53% TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? AB 2015 (389) 42% 50% 30% 32% DE 2013 (296) DE 2015 (245)
CUTS AND MISPERCEPTIONS • People think only 28% of “planned cuts” have been made: this is lower than in 2012, when people thought that 40% of cuts had been made • People are often very wrong on the nature and scale of spending changes for individual services – eg they think spending has gone down on pensions (when it has gone up) and think it’s gone up on education (when it’s gone down)
38 I WOULD NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT PUBLIC SPENDING ON DIFFERENT SERVICES OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS. FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME BY WHAT PERCENT YOU THINK SPENDING HAS INCREASED OR DECREASED IN REAL TERMS OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS? PLEASE GIVE YOUR BEST ESTIMATE IF YOU ARE NOT SURE. -20% -9% -12% -6% 4% -3% -1% -5% -19% 0% 13% -2% -13% 1% -49% -5% 65% 11% -54% +44% +14% -15% +19% -4% -7% +6% +11%Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Actual figures are differences between 2014/15 and 2009/10 public sector expenditure on services by sub-function as reported by the Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2015 (2009/10 figures from 2014 publication) and adjusted using GDP deflators given by HM Treasury [figures in brackets are exact definitions]. * Note that education figures for 2014/15 showed a significant decrease due to a decreased impact of student loan impairments, which means the reduction from 2009/10 is larger than the reduction in spending in previous years Source: Ipsos MORI Foreign aid [Foreign economic aid] Housing [housing development: local authority and other social housing] Education [all education services from pre-primary to tertiary and others*] Pensions and old age benefits [pensions and old age personal social services] Transport [national and local roads, local public transport, railway and other transport] Other benefits [all social protection not including old age benefits and pensions] Health services / NHS [includes medical services and research and central and other health services] Defence [includes military, civil, R&D and other defence and foreign military aid] Policing [includes immigration and citizenship and other police services] Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual But they are often very wrong on how spending has actually changed in the last 5 years – eg they think pension spend has decreased… Gap
39 AND WHAT PROPORTION OF THE GOVERNMENT’S PLANNED CUTS TO PUBLIC SPENDING DO YOU THINK HAVE BEEN CARRIED OUT SO FAR? 40% 28% November 2012 August 2015 People think only 28% of planned cuts have been made – less than they thought in 2012 Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI As clearly more cuts have been carried out in the intervening years (although it is difficult to give comparable figures on this as plans will change over time) this does suggest that expectations of cuts and austerity as ongoing features of public spending are becoming more strongly held (although note there are some methodological differences - 2012 survey was carried out online among 16-75 year olds).
WHAT DO PUBLIC SECTOR WORKERS THINK? • People working in the public sector are more likely to feel they have been affected by the cuts so far (29%, compared with 19% of private sector workers), and are more worried about the future impact of cuts (52% vs 38%). • They are also more sceptical about the government’s policies for public services – 70% of public sector workers disagree its policies will improve public services in the long term, compared with 53% of private sector workers. • However, there are fewer differences in expectations for the future of individual public services. Public and private sector workers are equally pessimistic about the future of the NHS, the environment, opportunities for young people, and transport, although public sector workers are more pessimistic about the future for skills in Britain’s workforce.
Public services and austerity October 2015 Contacts: bobby.duffy@ipsos.com gideon.skinner@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000

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Public Services and Austerity

  • 1.
    Public services andausterity October 2015 Contacts: bobby.duffy@ipsos.com gideon.skinner@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
  • 2.
    OVERALL VIEWS OFPUBLIC SERVICES AND THE CUTS • Three in four say they have been little affected by the cuts. Now many fewer think they have been affected than in 2012, and concern about the future impact of cuts has also dropped since then. • This is despite more people thinking that public services have got worse overall than better – though there has been no change about this since 2013. • Most also disagree that the government’s policies will improve public services – although this was similar under New Labour.
  • 3.
    3 People do notthink they are being affected by cuts – big increase in those “not at all” affected AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT HAS ANNOUNCED A NUMBER OF SPENDING CUTS TO HELP REDUCE THE NATIONAL DEBT TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, HAVE YOU AND YOUR FAMILY BEEN AFFECTED BY THE CUTS SO FAR? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI 8% 8% 25% 15% 49% 39% 10% 37% 8% 2% November 2012 August 2015 A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know 76%23% 59%33%
  • 4.
    4 And concern aboutfuture effects of cuts decreased significantly… AND HOW CONCERNED, IF AT ALL, ARE YOU ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF THE CUTS ON YOU AND YOUR FAMILY IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI 19% 19% 42% 27% 28% 30% 5% 22% 6% 1% November 2012 August 2015 Very concerned Fairly concerned Not very concerned Not at all concerned Don't know 52%46% 33%61%
  • 5.
    5 This is despitepeople being more likely to think services have got worse than better – though no change from two years ago Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC SERVICES OVERALL, DO YOU THINK THE QUALITY OF PUBLIC SERVICES HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll 3% 4% 12% 12% 42% 39% 20% 23% 20% 20% 3% 3% September 2013 September 2015 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know 16% 40%15% 43%
  • 6.
    6 And most stilldisagree the government has the right policies for public services (although was similar under Labour) On balance, do you agree or disagree with the following statements? In the long term, this government’s policies will improve the state of Britain's public services. Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ every month Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jun-01 Nov-01 Apr-02 Sep-02 Feb-03 Jul-03 Dec-03 May-04 Oct-04 Mar-05 Aug-05 Jan-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 56 37Agree Disagree
  • 7.
    HEALTH SERVICES • Morepeople think health and social care services have got worse than in 2013. • Users of health services remain as divided over service quality as two years ago, while users of GPs have become more negative. • Most (55%) are concerned about the future of the NHS. This is the highest level of concern since we began measuring in 2002.
  • 8.
    Public is seeingmore decline in quality of health and social care than they were two years ago 8 4% 2% 11% 7% 11% 10% 7% 11% 16% 17% 18% 17% 22% 27% 36% 34% 41% 33% 10% 16% 14% 19% 14% 19% 12% 20% 16% 16% 14% 19% 44% 24% 7% 7% 2% 3% 2013 2015 2013 2015 2013 2015 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know GP surgeries Hospitals Care for the elderly Base: 1,006 British adults 18 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 27% 38% 29% 28% 24% 35% 27% 30% 13% 36% 11% 22%
  • 9.
    Users also onbalance negative – more so in the case of GPs 9 9% 5% 11% 7% 10% 10% 13% 17% 16% 19% 19% 17% 27% 30% 36% 33% 42% 32% 13% 15% 15% 19% 14% 20% 19% 26% 17% 17% 14% 19% 12% 7% 5% 5% 1% 2% 2013 (210) 2015 (172) 2013 (888) 2015 (807) 2013 (938) 2015 (904) Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Users of GP surgeries Users of hospitals Users of care for the elderly Base: All whose household benefits from named service 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? (ALL WHOSE HOUSEHOLD BENEFITS FROM SERVICE) 27% 39% 29% 28% 26% 36% 27% 32% 22% 41% 22% 32%
  • 10.
    10 And when askedabout the future of the NHS… most are concerned THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE NHS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 4% 15% 23% 32% 23% 2% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 19% 55%
  • 11.
    … and thisis the highest ever proportion expecting it to get worse Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 11THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF THE NHS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Jul-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 55 19 Better Worse
  • 12.
    EDUCATION AND SKILLS • Overall,perceptions of schools and colleges more positive than negative, but have become less optimistic over the last two years – including among users • Perceptions of universities, though, are more negative • People remain pessimistic about future opportunities for young people, but are more optimistic about skills than in 2008
  • 13.
    Effect on universitieslargely unknown, but slightly more pessimism about schools and colleges than 2013 13 8% 9% 6% 20% 18% 8% 27% 30% 23% 9% 13% 13% 8% 9% 10% 29% 20% 40% 2013 Sep-15 Aug-15 Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Universities Schools and colleges Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 14% 23% 27% 22% 28% 17%
  • 14.
    Users of schoolsremain positive on balance, but less so than in 2013 14 12% 14% 11% 31% 23% 17% 27% 28% 29% 12% 17% 19% 10% 14% 17% 5% 4% 6% 2013 (419) Sep 2015 (413) Aug 2015 (242) Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Universities Schools and colleges Base: All whose household benefits from named service, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 28% 36% 37% 31% 43% 22%
  • 15.
    15 We’re evenly splitof whether education will to get better, worse or stay the same THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 5% 26% 32% 23% 9% 5% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 31% 32%
  • 16.
    And no bigshifts in expectations of education services: more negative than 2000s, but little shift since Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 16 THINKING ABOUT THE QUALITY OF EDUCATION OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 32 31 Better Worse
  • 17.
    17 Public are morenegative than positive about whether opportunities for young people will improve THINKING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOUNG PEOPLE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 5% 28% 19% 28% 17% 3% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 33% 45% Though 18-24s are the most optimistic about their opportunities improving over the next few years – 55% of 18-24s think young people’s opportunities will improve
  • 18.
    Views of opportunitiesfor young people also little changed since 2008 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 18 THINKING ABOUT OPPORTUNITIES FOR YOUNG PEOPLE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 45 33 Better Worse
  • 19.
    19 Yet despite negativityabout young people’s opportunities, they are more evenly split on skills THINKING ABOUT SKILLS IN BRITAIN’S WORKFORCE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 4% 33% 24% 25% 11% 5% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 37% 36%
  • 20.
    And people increasinglyoptimistic on skills in Britain’s workforce compared with pessimism in 2008 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 20 THINKING ABOUT SKILLS IN BRITAIN’S WORKFORCE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 36 37 Better Worse
  • 21.
    LOCAL SERVICES AND INFRASTRUCTURE •Local services not perceived to have taken a hit in quality in their bread-and- butter street-scene services – lighting, cleaning and bin collection. • Slight declines in perceived quality of local libraries and leisure centres, but still a minority are unhappy • Road maintenance remains the biggest bugbear (although not quite as bad as two years ago) • Perceptions of local bus services and public transport have also slightly deteriorated
  • 22.
    13% 10% 27% 26% 7% 6% 8% 8% 16% 12% 21% 22% 12% 16% 12% 11% 45% 51% 37% 34% 54% 47% 58% 57% 11% 13% 6% 8% 10% 12% 9% 10% 12% 12% 6% 7% 11% 14% 8% 10% 3% 2% 3% 3% 5% 5% 4% 5% 2013 Aug-15 2013 Sep-15 2013 Aug-15 2013 Aug-15 Got much betterGot a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Street lighting Refuse collection Street cleaning Recycling collection No big shifts in views of local streetscene services – just slight increases in people saying they’ve got worse 22 Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 19% 20% 20% 17% 19% 26% 22% 15% 22% 21% 48% 25% 48% 12% 29% 23%
  • 23.
    15% 12% 9% 7% 14% 10% 18% 20% 11% 12% 11% 14% 44% 46% 35% 35% 38% 33% 9% 10% 9% 14% 4% 9% 6% 6% 7% 9% 3% 6% 8% 6% 29% 23% 30% 29% 2013 Aug-15 2013 Sep-15 2013 Aug-15 Got much betterGot a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Leisure centres Parks and open spaces Libraries Slightly greater shifts towards thinking leisure centres and libraries have got worse – but relatively few noticing changes 23 Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 24% 15% 25% 7% 20% 23% 33% 16% 19% 16% 32% 15%
  • 24.
    4% 4% 8% 8% 7% 10% 13% 11% 20% 28% 39% 37% 18% 18% 11% 14% 49% 39% 8% 11% 2% 2% 20% 20% 2013 Aug-15 2013 Aug-15 Got much betterGot a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Bus services Road maintenance Concern about road maintenance still very high, if lower than in 2015, but more likely to think bus services have got worse 24 Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 19% 25% 21% 19% 11% 57%14% 67%
  • 25.
    13% 11% 17% 14% 20% 16% 12% 10% 15% 16% 19% 21% 16% 19% 17% 16% 35% 40% 47% 47% 49% 43% 45% 42% 13% 19% 10% 11% 5% 12% 14% 15% 10% 10% 6% 5% 4% 7% 8% 13% 7% 4% 1% 1% 5% 4% 3% 5% 2013 (562) 2015 (413) 2013(795) 2015 (847) 2013 (525) 2015 (509) 2013 (632) 2015 (601) Got much better Got a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know Bus services Leisure centres Parks and open space Libraries Users of local services tend to be more positive than non-users – little change in their views since 2013 25 Base: All whose household benefits from named service, 8th – 11th August 2015, and 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? (ALL WHOSE HOUSEHOLD BENEFITS FROM SERVICE) 26% 28% 29% 23% 35% 19% 36% 9% 32% 16% 28% 23% 35% 29%27% 16%
  • 26.
    26 Expectations split onfuture of public transport THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 5% 21% 36% 24% 8% 6% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 26% 32%
  • 27.
    Slight decline inoptimism since 2008 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 27THINKING ABOUT PUBLIC TRANSPORT OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar-02 Oct-02 May-03 Dec-03 Jul-04 Feb-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Nov-13 Jun-14 Jan-15 Aug-15 26 32 Better Worse
  • 28.
    LOCAL POLICING • Moresaying that they feel quality of police has decreased now than in 2013 • Similarly, a third think quality of local policing will get worse in the next few years, and public is more pessimistic than during the 2000s.
  • 29.
    5% 3% 10% 9% 43% 39% 15% 21% 13% 18% 13% 10% 2013 Sep-15 Got much betterGot a little better Stayed the same Got a little worse Got much worse Don’t know The police Fears about declining quality of the force have increased since 2013 29 Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll DO YOU THINK [EACH SERVICE] HAS GOT BETTER OR WORSE IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS, OR HAS IT STAYED THE SAME? IS THAT MUCH OR A LITTLE BETTER/WORSE? 12% 39% 28%15%
  • 30.
    30 A third alsoexpect local policing to get worse in the next few years THINKING ABOUT THE WAY YOUR AREA IS POLICED OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI 3% 12% 46% 26% 9% 4% Get much better Get a little better Stay the same Get a little worse Get much worse Don’t know 15% 35%
  • 31.
    People are morepessimistic about policing than in the 2000s Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 31 THINKING ABOUT THE WAY YOUR AREA IS POLICED OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS DO YOU EXPECT IT TO…? Source: Ipsos MORI 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 15 35 Better Worse
  • 32.
    WELFARE • Concern aboutthe effect of welfare cuts appears to be growing. Half say the cuts have gone too far – and even though on balance people think they have been necessary, they are less likely to think this than in 2013 • ABs remain the most likely to believe the cuts have been necessary, but much less than in 2013
  • 33.
    33 31% 27% 16% 21% 12% 18% 16% 15% 21% 16% 4% 3% Strongly agree Tendto agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know 2015 2013 Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? People more likely to agree than disagree that cuts to welfare gone too far… I THINK CUTS TO WELFARE AND BENEFITS HAVE GONE TOO FAR 48% 31% 37%47%
  • 34.
    34 29% 22% 30% 25% 11% 16% 9% 17% 16% 17% 6% 3% Strongly agree Tendto agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know 2015 2013 Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? …although they also think the cuts have been necessary – but less so than in 2013 I THINK REDUCTIONS IN SOCIAL WELFARE BENEFITS HAVE BEEN NECESSARY But people are not always consistent: eg 37% of those who think welfare cuts have gone too far also think that the reductions in benefits have been necessary 47% 34% 25%59%
  • 35.
    35 40% 37% 25% 26% 16% 19% 17% 22% 11% 14% 11% 16% 10% 9% 18% 19% 18% 16% 26% 12% 6% 5% 4% 4% Strongly agree Tendto agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know I think cuts to welfare and benefits have gone too far AB 2013 (334) Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? Social classes DE most likely to think welfare cuts gone too far, but ABs are moving more in line with them 42% 44% 25% 48% TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? DE 2013 (296) DE 2015 (245) AB 2015 (389) 56% 56% 31% 28%
  • 36.
    36 23% 22% 38% 21% 27% 20% 27% 32% 11% 15% 9% 15% 10% 14% 11% 15% 22% 24% 10% 15% 8% 5% 5% 3% Strongly agree Tendto agree Neither agree nor disagree Tend to disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know I think reductions in social welfare benefits have been necessary AB 2013 (334) Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 11th – 13th September 2015, Source: Ipsos MORI/2013 BBC Bailout Anniversary poll TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? Most ABs still think cuts to welfare are necessary but this attitude has softened since 2013 65% 21% 38% 53% TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS? AB 2015 (389) 42% 50% 30% 32% DE 2013 (296) DE 2015 (245)
  • 37.
    CUTS AND MISPERCEPTIONS •People think only 28% of “planned cuts” have been made: this is lower than in 2012, when people thought that 40% of cuts had been made • People are often very wrong on the nature and scale of spending changes for individual services – eg they think spending has gone down on pensions (when it has gone up) and think it’s gone up on education (when it’s gone down)
  • 38.
    38 I WOULD NOWLIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT PUBLIC SPENDING ON DIFFERENT SERVICES OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS. FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME BY WHAT PERCENT YOU THINK SPENDING HAS INCREASED OR DECREASED IN REAL TERMS OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS? PLEASE GIVE YOUR BEST ESTIMATE IF YOU ARE NOT SURE. -20% -9% -12% -6% 4% -3% -1% -5% -19% 0% 13% -2% -13% 1% -49% -5% 65% 11% -54% +44% +14% -15% +19% -4% -7% +6% +11%Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Actual figures are differences between 2014/15 and 2009/10 public sector expenditure on services by sub-function as reported by the Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2015 (2009/10 figures from 2014 publication) and adjusted using GDP deflators given by HM Treasury [figures in brackets are exact definitions]. * Note that education figures for 2014/15 showed a significant decrease due to a decreased impact of student loan impairments, which means the reduction from 2009/10 is larger than the reduction in spending in previous years Source: Ipsos MORI Foreign aid [Foreign economic aid] Housing [housing development: local authority and other social housing] Education [all education services from pre-primary to tertiary and others*] Pensions and old age benefits [pensions and old age personal social services] Transport [national and local roads, local public transport, railway and other transport] Other benefits [all social protection not including old age benefits and pensions] Health services / NHS [includes medical services and research and central and other health services] Defence [includes military, civil, R&D and other defence and foreign military aid] Policing [includes immigration and citizenship and other police services] Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual Perceived Actual But they are often very wrong on how spending has actually changed in the last 5 years – eg they think pension spend has decreased… Gap
  • 39.
    39 AND WHAT PROPORTIONOF THE GOVERNMENT’S PLANNED CUTS TO PUBLIC SPENDING DO YOU THINK HAVE BEEN CARRIED OUT SO FAR? 40% 28% November 2012 August 2015 People think only 28% of planned cuts have been made – less than they thought in 2012 Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI As clearly more cuts have been carried out in the intervening years (although it is difficult to give comparable figures on this as plans will change over time) this does suggest that expectations of cuts and austerity as ongoing features of public spending are becoming more strongly held (although note there are some methodological differences - 2012 survey was carried out online among 16-75 year olds).
  • 40.
    WHAT DO PUBLICSECTOR WORKERS THINK? • People working in the public sector are more likely to feel they have been affected by the cuts so far (29%, compared with 19% of private sector workers), and are more worried about the future impact of cuts (52% vs 38%). • They are also more sceptical about the government’s policies for public services – 70% of public sector workers disagree its policies will improve public services in the long term, compared with 53% of private sector workers. • However, there are fewer differences in expectations for the future of individual public services. Public and private sector workers are equally pessimistic about the future of the NHS, the environment, opportunities for young people, and transport, although public sector workers are more pessimistic about the future for skills in Britain’s workforce.
  • 41.
    Public services andausterity October 2015 Contacts: bobby.duffy@ipsos.com gideon.skinner@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000