Success stories: from genetic resource to climate adaptation
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Global food demand is projected to increase 60-70% by 2050, requiring crop breeding to develop higher-yielding varieties that can adapt to climate change. Certain crops like maize, beans, and bananas are especially vulnerable to warming temperatures and drought in key growing regions in Africa and South America. Breeding programs take over a decade to develop and release new varieties. Recent projects have made progress in developing heat-tolerant maize and drought-tolerant beans, but greater genetic diversity from crop wild relatives is needed to ensure future food security under climate change.
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Success stories: from genetic resource to climate adaptation
- 1. From genetic resources to success stories Andy Jarvis, CCAFS ccafs.cgiar.org
- 2. In order to meet global demands, we will need 60-70% more food by 2050. Why breeding? Food Security
- 3. IPCC 2013 Global wheat and maize yields: response to warming Why breeding? - Adaptation
- 4. Results: which crops, when, where?
- 5. Which? Maize, bananas and beans millets, sorghum, yams, cassava & groundnut are (mainly) stable.
- 6. When and where? Beans Beans will lose 60% cropping area (RCP 8.5): 1.85 million hectares of current bean cropping systems in Uganda and Tanzania, which grow 41% of total sub-Saharan African bean supply, will be unable to do so by 2100.
- 7. When and where? Maize Projected maize transformations represent 5% of Nigeria's current production by the 2050s and 25% by 2100 (RCP 8.5) 0.5% maize areas have no viable crop substitution option These areas total 0.8 Mha in the dry zones of South Africa (currently grow 2.7 Mt)
- 8. Can we breed our way out of the problem?
- 9. Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0066428 http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0066428 Can we breed our way out of the problem?
- 10. Timeframe to release a new variety Year activity 0 installation of a collection 1 selection of parents and multiplication of selected parents 2-3 crosses and seed germination 4-5 F1 selection, cloning and evaluation 6-7 multiplication and crosses 8-9 F2 selection, cloning and evaluation 10-13 multi-locational testing 14-16 on-farm testing 17 large scale distribution
- 11. Limiting factors for bean production Heat & drought are breeding priorities Low temperature High temperature Drought Excess water Slide courtesy Steve Beebe, CIAT
- 13. David Cavagnaro
- 14. Phaseolus spp. Genetic diversity and useful traits Secondary • coccineus • dumosus • costaricensis Vigorous rooting Pest/disease resistance Tertiary • acutifolius • parvifolius Heat + drought resistance Primary • vulgaris Humid-sub-humid Sub-humid to dry arid Beebe (2017)
- 15. The El Nino bean
- 16. Drought-tolerant maize Masuka et al. submitted Yieldunderdroughtstress(tha-1) Current yield gain Expected yield gains based on incorporating new technologies (doubled haploid, breeder ready markers, increased selection intensity, remote sensing, decision support tools) Drought Tolerant Maize for Africa initiative has already benefited 30-40 million people in 13 African countries. Is more benefit possible?
- 17. Heat-tolerant maize New heat stress tolerant hybrid Most popular hybrid in southern Africa HEAD START: heat tolerance breeding work started 5 years ahead of demand from private sector – ready in 2016 not 2021
- 18. Participatory plant breeding Beans are a women’s crop Important to combine heat-tolerance and drought-tolerance with other valued traits Not looking to promote a single variety everywhere; local preferences and plasticity matter Bean variety testing with 215 female & 143 male farmers Men value traits: yield & market value Women also value traits: short cooking times, tastiness, high nutritional value & climate responses Mukankusi et al 2015. CCAFS WP 143
- 19. Florunner, with low root-knot nematode resistance COAN, with population density of root-knot nematodes >90% less than in Florunner Wild relative species A. batizocoi - 12 germplasm accessions A. cardenasii - 17 germplasm accessions A. diogoi - 5 germplasm accessions Genetic resources: under threat
- 20. The “primary regions of diversity” of crops
- 21. Production value Global web of interdependence in primary regions of diversity of crops in production systems