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Strategies for Survival from a
Perfect Storm in Telecom

Ryan Hendricks
Campaignist, Inc.


September 2010
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Rising infrastructure costs and falling margins


• Global telecom businesses are
  under pressure to transform
  themselves by a “perfect                                           3G/4G
                                                              ARPU
  storm” of business, technology                                             Addressable
                                                                             Market
  and market pressures;
    – Addressable Market saturation at
      high-end ARPU segments;
    – Falling voice and VAS margins;                                         3G/4G-
                                                                             enabled
    – Pending number portability;                                            Services

    – Telecom handsets are becoming                                          VAS /
                                                                             Data
      the platform of choice for converged                                   Margins
      media for the masses (Phone + TV
      + PC + Cinema);                                                        Voice
                                                                             Margins
    – New skills and revenue model
      strategies are critical.



2                             Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Five (5) Key business transformation drivers
• Quantity Focus becoming a Quality Focused Strategy
    – Customer relationship is moving up the value chain
    – Volume of acquisitions will not be sufficient to support new business
      models – especially given falling margins for traditional services


    Old Business Drivers                                        New Business Drivers
    1. Voice and VAS                                            1. Content and Context


                                              Becoming
    2. Customer Acquisition                                     2. Customer Cultivation
    3. Who, What                                                3. How, Why, When, Where
    4. Product excellence                                       4. Insight Process excellence
    5. Network coverage                                         5. Network applications



                       Quantity focus becoming a quality focus

3                               Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Business transformation success factors
• Successfully competing in this transformed market will require
  new skills in understanding customers, anticipating their needs and
  wants, and developing new products and services rapidly to meet
  these needs;
    – Today’s consumers have no time for SPAM and are increasingly exercising
      their right to not be disturbed by irrelevant promotions and communications
      –On average >50% of subscribers are on Do-Not-Disturb – blocking direct promos


         3G/4G Business Drivers                        3G/4G Success Factors
         1. Content and Context                        Partnership strategies
         2. Customer Cultivation                       Listen, learn, apply insights
         3. How, Why, When, Where                      3G Master Data Roadmap
         4. Insight Process excellence                 Align sales, marketing, retail
         5. Network applications                       Leverage network capabilities

                    3G/4G business drivers and key success factors

4                                Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Multi-media converged “Monetization of Time” (MOT)

• Successful media businesses (telecom, internet, television, cinema
  and traditional publishing) compete to make the most revenue out
  of every minute of a customer’s available time and are proxies
  for emerging smart phone driven telecom’s 3G/4G battle:
• With the advent of 3G/4G networks and the mobile phone
  becoming the platform of choice for convergent media, telecom
  companies have to quickly move up the maturity curve on MOT;
    – And take advantage of the always on, always available nature of the
      broadband cell phone by providing the customer with targeted, relevant,
      instant access to what they need, what they want, and productivity tools
      that free up more time …
    – The moments in the morning, at lunch, in the evenings, on
      weekends, during holidays and even sick-days when a consumer can
      decide “what do I want to do now?” are the focus of media
      businesses everywhere;



5                             Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Understanding both sides of the CVM coin
    • Customer Value Management (CVM) is often viewed through a
      one-dimensional lens – a company’s value of their customer.
          – Effective CVM includes our value of them and their value of us

    INSIDE-OUT (our value of them):                          OUTSIDE-IN (their value of us):
    How They Satisfy Our Needs                               How We Satisfy Their Needs
    1.   Revenue                                             1.    Value-for-money
    2.   Age-on-Network                                      2.    Customer Satisfaction
    3.   Higher credit rating                                3.    Flexible credit limits
    4.   Lower Cost-to-Serve (CTS)                           4.    Easy, multi-channel self-service
    5.   Increasing number of product/service                5.    Single trusted vendor for all desired
         subscriptions                                             products/services, everywhere
    6.   High-end, high-volume, right time                   6.    High-performance, high-value, timely
         product/service users                                     product availability
    7.   Social Network ARPU value                           7.    Social Network app’s and services
    8.   Recommendations and referrals                       8.    Pride of product/service ownership
    9.   Providing insights for new products                 9.    Providing incentives for feedback

                  Companies focus mostly on just 1 side of the Customer Value coin
6                                        Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
A best-practice approach to segmentation maturity

    High
    Value              Segmentation Capability                                                          WHY
                                                                                 WHERE
                       Maturity Model                                                          Self-Learning
                                                                                               Segmentation
                                                                   WHEN
     Value Delivered




                                                                                    Predictive Modeling

                                                          HOW
                                                                              Delivery Decision Rules

                                                WHAT
                                                                     Customer Event Triggers

                                HOW MUCH
                                                           Customer Behavior

                          WHO               Customer Profile
    Low
    Value                      Reactive Request Mgmt

                       Aware     Developing            Practicing                 Optimizing        Leading
                                              Level of Maturity



7                                             Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
A best-practice approach to segmentation maturity
    • Financial/Value Segmentation                                                                                                                                                              • Interaction & C-SAT Segmentation
      – Mostly ARPU & Credit context                                                                                                                                                              – Issues and touch-point context
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cred it limit in tact

                                                                                New Segmentation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         HAPPY                                                   DOPEY                                                SNEEZY

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Very High Usage                                             High Usage                                         Sporadic Usage

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    No C-SAT Issues                                            Lots of Issues                                     In termitten t Issu es
                                                                                                                                                                                                         L-1                                                  L-2                                                        L-5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Large Social NW                                             Loves VAS                                           Negative WOM




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            DOC                                               BASHFUL                                               GRUMPY

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        High Usage                                         Low-Mediu m Usage                                    Freq uen t complaints

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Queen Bee                                              Worker Bee                            C-4       Usag e Stead ily Falling
                                                                                                                                                                                                         L-3                                                 L-4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Pays on Last Day                                       Paymen ts on time                                     Paymen ts o n time




                         New segmentation will be common across all areas; GSM/ CDMA,
    • Propensity to XYZ across Businesses
             Prepaid/post paid/ and Segmentation                                                                                                                                                • Lifecycle & Lifestyle Segmentation
      – Deciles of likely-to-churn context                                                                                                                                                        – Spending, time-of-day, geo & products
               10                                      51.7                  10                                   46.7                    10                               44.2                    ID     EXAMPLES OF LIFESTYLE-DRIVEN USAGE SEGMENTS                                                                      LIFESTYLE USAGE CATEGORY
                9                                 46.2                        9                         31.4                               9                               43.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                  CS-1
                                                                                                                                                                                                          ABOVE HALF-TANKERS: Very active high credit balance Subscribers who rarely allow their credit lim it to fall
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           CREDIT AND SPENDING PROFILES
                                                                                                                                                                                                             below half the m axim um.
                8                        36.7                                 8                                42.2                        8                                      55.7
                                                                                                                                                                                                          RUNNING ON FUMES: Heavy users who regularly use services while at the edge of their disposable credit,
                                                                                                                                                                                                  CS-2                                                                                                                     CREDIT AND SPENDING PROFILES
                7                               43.0                          7                  24.1                                      7                      31.9                                       once in a while falling into suspension m ode.
                                                                    Decile




                                                                                                                                 Decile
      Decile




                6                      33.6                                   6           16.6                                             6                        34.4                          TD-2
                                                                                                                                                                                                          WHILE-AT-WORKERS: Subscribers who use services during working hours but not before or after (business
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           TIME AND DAY USAGE PROFILES
                                                                                                                                                                                                             users or hom em akers talking to friends or vendors).
                5               26.2                                          5            19.1                                            5                     29.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                          WHILE-AT-PLAYERS: Subscribers who use services after working hours and on weekends and avail of
                                                                                                                                                                                                  TD-3                                                                                                                     TIME AND DAY USAGE PROFILES
                                                                                                                                                                                                             entertainm ent VAS (astrology, jokes, sports, etc…).
                4        18.8                                                 4              22.0                                          4              19.2


                                                              NI                                                         HNI                                                      NHNI
                                                                                                                                                                                                  GO-1    MOBILE PROFESSIONALS: Frequently roam away from their Hom e State.                                               GEOGRAPHIC USAGE
                3 10.3                                                        3     7.0                                                    3       13.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                  GO-2    AWAY-FROM-HOME WORKERS:            Frequently m ake STD calls.                                                   GEOGRAPHIC USAGE
                2 4.0                                                         2
                                                                              0.6                                                          22.1
                                                                                                                                                                                                  PU-1    DATA CARD USERS: People who use Data Cards for internet access (and VOIP)                                        PRODUCT USAGE – DATA CARD
                1
                1.1                                                           1
                                                                              0.0                                                          1
                                                                                                                                           0.6
                                                                                                                                                                                                  PU-2    MULTIPLE SUBSCRIPTIONS: People who have m ore than one RCOM service.                                             PRODUCT USAGE – MULTIPLE RCOM
                                                                                                                                                                                                          POPULAR QUEEN BEES: Subscribers who receive m uch m ore inbound contact from m any different people
                  0             20                40           60               0.0              20.0           40.0      60.0               0.0            20.0       40.0              60.0     SN-1
                                                                                                                                                                                                             than the outbound contacts they initiate.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           SOCIAL NETWORK PROFILES

                         Do Not Disturb                                                     Do Not Disturb                                                  Do Not Disturb                        SN-2    LONELY WORKER BEES: Subscribers who m ake m uch m ore outbound contact than they receive from others.            SOCIAL NETWORK PROFILES




    • Interest-Driven Segmentation                                                                                                                                                              • Social Networking Segmentation
      – Entertainment, interaction, commerce …                                                                                                                                                    – Network ARPU, calling patterns, CLV


                                                                                                               Religion




                                                              There are 1,000’s of Potential Addressable Micro-segments based on existing data.


8                                                                                                                                                                          Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
A segment behavior personification example

          Five (5) Examples Likely-to-Churn Behavior Segments


            TERMINATED                                       IN JAIL                      SNEEZY

                Voluntary                                   Suspended                  Sporadic Usage
    C-1                                    C-2
               Involuntary                                     Grace                  Intermittent Issues
                                                                                C-5
                Migration                               Negative Balance               Negative WOM




             COMATOSE                                      GRUMPY

           Active then asleep                         Frequent complaints

    C-3       Open Issue                  C-4       Usage Steadily Falling

            Credit limit intact                        Payments on time



                             A simple example for illustration purposes only.

9                                        Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
A segment behavior personification example

     Five (5) Examples of Likely-to-Remain-Loyal Behavior Segments


                HAPPY                                        DOPEY                      SLEEPY

             Very High Usage                                High Usage               Always low usage
                                                                               L-5
             No C-SAT Issues                              Lots of Issues              No complaints
      L-1                                 L-2
             Large Social NW                                Loves VAS                Payments on time




                  DOC                                     BASHFUL

               High Usage                            Low-Medium Usage

               Queen Bee                                   Worker Bee
       L-3                               L-4
             Pays on Last Day                          Payments on time



                            A simple example for illustration purposes only.

10                                      Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
A segment behavior matrix example
                          Credit            Time & Day             Social        Geographic        Product
 Churn-Loyalty          &Spending             Usage               Networks         Usage            Usage
 Segment                 Lifestyle           Lifestyle            Lifestyle       Lifestyle        Lifestyle

 C-1: Terminated     CS3, CS-4                                                GO-2          PU-3

 C-2: In Jail        CS-2, CS-3        TD-3                SN-1                             PU-5, PU-8

 C-3: Comatose       CS-5              TD-2                                   GO-1, GO-4    PU-2, PU-4

 C-4: Grumpy         CS-2              TD-1                SN-2                             PU-4, PU-7

 C-5: Sneezy         CS-5                                                     GO-3          PU-3

 L-1: Happy          CS1, CS-4         TD-3                SN-1, SN-2         GO-1, GO-4,   PU-1, PU-2,
                                                                              GO-5, GO-6    PU-4, PU-8

 L-2: Dopey          CS1, CS-4         TD-1                SN-2,              GO-2          PU-1, PU-2,
                                                                                            PU-4, PU-8

 L-3: Doc            CS1, CS-4         TD-2                SN-3               GO-5, GO-6    PU-1, PU-2,
                                                                                            PU-4, PU-8

 L-4: Bashful        CS-5                                  SN-4               GO-4          PU-1

 L-5: Sleepy         CS-4              TD-3                SN-2               GO-1          PU-8


                   A simple example for illustration purposes only.

11                                Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Adding interests creates 1000’s of micro segments




                                                   Adding financial,
                                                   lifestyle, interest
                                                   and other data
                                                   further extends
                                                   the targeting to
                                                   1000’s of micro
                                                   segments.




12                 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Untargeted promos closing key contact channels

• Poorly segmented, untargeted campaign tactics have resulted in a majority
  of subscribers closing key promotional channels (DNC/DND*)
     – Those who value their time the most (the busiest) subscribe to DNC/DND fastest;
     – As a result, ARPU per Value-Added-Service (VAS) Subscriber Sale has fallen steadily


      If High Value Subscribers DND First
                                                                                                 As the Net DND Base Increases …
     High                                                            Low No of
     ARPU                                                              Subs




                                                                                                        DND

                                                                                                               DND
                                                                        NUMBER of Subscribers




                                                                                                                      DND
      ARPU per Subscriber




                                                                                                                             DND
                                                                                                        ARPU

                                                                                                               ARPU

                                                                                                                      ARPU

                                                                                                                             ARPU
      Low                   A high number of Low value subscribers   High No of
     ARPU                      remain in this part of the pyramid.     Subs



 Eventually mostly Low value subscribers remain                                                 The ARPU per Value-Added Sale Falls.


                                                          *DND is Do Not Disturb (Do Not Call)
13                                                                     Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Revenue impact of advanced segmentation
• A recent Gartner article highlighted the need to move beyond the traditional static
  promotions we use today to dynamic, interactive, value-focused ones with higher
  response and conversion rates (ROI). The response rates for each level are:
• LEVEL 1 generates a 2% response – Traditional static promotions (1-way):
     – A. traditional segmentation with promotions based on demographics like geo area and spend

• LEVEL 2:generates a 10-15% response – Dynamic promotions (individual):
     – Active real-time listening of customer behavior with triggers generating personal promotions.

• LEVEL 3:generates a 20-30% response – Super micro-segmentation (network)
     – Leveraging viral marketing through social networks to optimize network ARPU and CVM

• LEVEL 4 creates brand new incremental revenue streams from Partner promotions
     – Leveraging customer insights to generate new sources of incremental revenue from location-
       and time-based targeted mobile advertising and content subscriptions with partners.

           http://www.gartner.com/technology/media-products/custom_multimedia/rate_integration.html




14                                        Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Recommendations for immediate next steps

• Examples of initiatives that should be initiated or expanded;

1. Product usage behavioral clustering studies: Grouping subscribers
   based on their known behavior;
2. Customer Lifetime Value Studies (statistical models): Estimation of
   direct and indirect customer value for improving prioritization and
   ROI of CRM investments;
3. Macro-level behavioral segmentation (using location data):
   Identification of housewives, professionals, office staff and laborers
   based on location-based tracking and usage data;
4. Micro-segmentation-based propensity targeting: Using existing
   CDR and other granular usage data, apply predictive modeling
   tools to identify high-propensity 3G/4G targets from existing and
   prospective customers (and prioritize them based on CLV);


15                         Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
An example of telecom behavioral clustering
                                                           OUT-        OUT-                           All       Bill
           Avg      Cost Per            # OUT-   IN-Calls                                                              IN-SMS    IN-SMS    IN-SMS
Cluster                      # IN-Calls                   Calls Bill   Roam     OUT-ILD   IN-ILD   Complaint Complaint
          ARPU        Unit               Calls   Bill Dur                                                                All      Local      STD
                                                            Dur         Dur                            s         s
   1        10        9         10       10         10       10         10         9        9         10         5       10       10         10
   2        9         6         9         9          8        9          9         8        5          8         3        8        8          8
   3        8         7         6         7          9        7          7         6        8          9         4        9        9          9
   4        7         2         4         8          4        8          8         5        4          7         8        4        4          6
   5        6         5         5         4          5        5          5         4        6          6         7        6        5          7
   6        5         1         2         5          1        6          6         3        1          4         9        1        1          2
   7        4         8         7         6          6        3          2         7        2          3         2        7        6          4
   8        2         3         3         2          3        4          4         1        3          5        10        3        3          5
   9        1         4         1         1          2        2          3         2        7          2         6        2        2          3
  10        3         10        8         3          7        1          1        10       10          1         1        5        7          1


                                                          OUT-          OUT-
           Avg      Cost Per            #OUT-  IN-Calls                                               All        Bill    IN-SMS IN-SMS IN-SMS
Cluster                      # IN-Calls                 Calls Bill     Roam     OUT-ILD   IN-ILD
          ARPU        Unit               Calls Bill Dur                                            Complaints Complaints   All   Local   STD
                                                        Duratn.         Dur
      1   504.77     17.58    75.18     75.02   106.75 127.32            8.4     0.92     0.05       0.82       0.2     38.97     12.36     3.54
      2   673.42     3.06      196     173.71 308.22     278.2         13.26     1.29     0.08       0.88       0.21    63.16     27.58     7.84
      3   927.21      5.8     215.48   335.96 306.99 610.73            34.86     2.17     0.05       0.87       0.2     62.65     25.83     7.79
      4   951.06     1.48     425.6    318.26   723.1    511.54        21.76     2.58     0.09       0.9        0.19    117.87     68.1     17.37
      5   1243.19    2.89     398.02   604.33 562.67 1013.07           49.98     2.99     0.07       0.93       0.19    94.19      47.7     13.32
      6   1289.07    0.96     801.13   547.21 1511.51 935.43           35.93     3.69     0.14       0.97       0.17    195.6     124.15    33.55
      7   1294.39    14.53    215.25   541.19 410.75 2168.21           184.86    1.46     0.12       1.03       0.26     93.9     42.26     25.77
      8   1732.47     2.1     693.4    1002.96 948.38 1577.06          62.45     4.51     0.11       0.96       0.17    138.64    78.23     20.05
      9   1971.42    2.61     915.11   1458.19 1342.06 2847.41         90.57     4.15     0.06       1.07       0.19    186.01    114.52    28.45
     10   1358.64    26.76    196.74   720.16 385.33 5645.82           326.26    0.6      0.01       1.1        0.35    104.51    36.33     42.45


                                                 Behavioral clusters example

16                                                       Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
An example of telecom behavioral clustering
      Cluster 1: 9th or 10th in                                                                 Cluster 10: #1 IN 10/34
       everything except - #5                                                                   Measures,#1 SMS, Local IN -
                                                                                 10             #1 in BILL COMPLAINTS, #1 in
       in BILL COMPLAINTS                 1
                                                                                                ARPU per MOU, #10 in ILD,
                                                      Cluster    Avg.                           #8/9 in OFF-net-IN
                                                        No.      ARPU
Cluster 2:8th or 9th in all       2
                                                         1       504.77
   except ILD-IN - #3 in
                                                         2       673.42
    BILL COMPLAINTS                                      3       927.21
                                                                                          9
                                                         4       951.06                          Cluster 9: #1 in 13/34
                                  3                                                              Measures and #1/2/3 in 30/34,
                                                         5      1243.19
 Cluster 3:8th or 9th in all
                                                         6      1289.07                          #4 in ARPU per MOU, #7 ILD-
 except ILD, NLD and #4                                  7      1294.39                          IN, #6 in BILL COMPLAINTS
   in BILL COMPLAINTS                                    8      1732.47               8
                                      4                  9      1971.42
                                                        10      1358.64
                                                                                              Cluster 8: #1 ILD-OUT MOU,
     Cluster 4: #4/5 in 14/34
                                                                                              #2/3 in 20/34 Measures - #2 in
       Measures - #2 ARPU
                                                                                 7            OUT, ARPU and #10 in BILL
      per MOU and in #3 in                 5                                                  COMPLAINTS
       IN-Local Onnet MOU                                  6

                                                                                      Cluster 7: #2 in ILD-IN
           Cluster 5: #4/5 in 19/34                                                   and ILD OUT (all) and
           Measures - #3 in Local             Cluster 6: #1/2/3 in 19/34              NATIONAL ROAM - #2
                  OUT Calls MOU               Measures - #1 ARPU per                  in BILL COMPLAINTS
                                              MOU, INCOMING - ILD,
                                              NLD, ON-OFFNET, SMS

                                          Behavioral clusters example

17                                               Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) Study example:




                                                      AC : Acquisition Cost (one time)
                                                      Rt : Revenue at time “t”
                                                      SCt : Servicing Cost at time “t”




                CLV calculation formula example

18                    Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Product usage by time-of-day points to needs
• To monetize subscriber time better than our competitors, we need to know:
     – Whether they use our services for work, play, family or a combination;
     – When and where they use our services;
• So if we know what they use our services for, we need to know how and when
  we should try to promote something to them based on:
     – Their Supply of available time and attention
          – When they’re more likely to Listen
     – Their Demand for what we’re offering (probability of additional needs and wants)
          – And our ability to provide them

     10
      8
      6
      4
      2                                                                   At Work
      0                                                                   At Play




19                                        Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Product usage by time-of-day points to needs
                                                                  WEEKEND BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10

While at Play Segments:                                           00:00-01:00
                                                                  02:00-03:00
                                                                  03:00-04:00
                                                                  04:00-05:00
                                                                              Weekend While-at-Play – Use by BTS
• End-of-the-day, early morning calls home or                     05:00-06:00
                                                                  06:00-07:00
  two fellow party-goers;                                         07:00-08:00
                                                                  08:00-09:00
                                                                  09:00-10:00

• Planning the weekend, evening, lunch,                           10:00-11:00
                                                                  11:00-12:00

  outings with friends/co-workers, etc…;                          12:00-13:00
                                                                  13:00-14:00
                                                                  14:00-15:00
                                                                  15:00-16:00
• Calling local friends, planning the evening,                    16:00-17:00
                                                                  17:00-18:00
  chatting, web-surfing;                                          18:00-19:00
                                                                  19:00-20:00
                                                                  20:00-21:00

• Subscribers making and receiving calls from                                                                      Sat/Sun by BTS
                                                                  21:00-22:00
                                                                  22:00-23:00
                                                                  23:00-24:00
  friends or relatives overseas (in/out);                          WEEKDAY BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10
                                                                  00:00-01:00

• Families making and receiving calls from
                                                                  02:00-03:00
                                                                  03:00-04:00
                                                                  04:00-05:00
                                                                             Weekday While-at-Work – Use by BTS
  overseas.                                                       05:00-06:00
                                                                  06:00-07:00
                                                                  07:00-08:00
                                                                  08:00-09:00
While at Work Segments:                                           09:00-10:00
                                                                  10:00-11:00
                                                                  11:00-12:00

• Weekday business calls, conference calls,                       12:00-13:00
                                                                  13:00-14:00

  sales calls, vendor calls, etc…                                 14:00-15:00
                                                                  15:00-16:00
                                                                  16:00-17:00
                                                                  17:00-18:00
• Saturday first-half and Sunday last-half of the                 18:00-19:00
                                                                  19:00-20:00
  day business calls                                              20:00-21:00

                                                                                                            Mon-Fri/Sat by BTS
                                                                  21:00-22:00

     •
                                                                  22:00-23:00
         Except for those who work all day Saturday and           23:00-24:00

         those that are off Saturdays                                Home                 BTS = local cell transmitter               Work
                                             Usage: Low/No Medium            High

20                                          Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Daily mobility patterns identify type of user (home/work)
       WEEKDAY      BTS-01   BTS-02   BTS-03   BTS-04   BTS-05   BTS-06   BTS-07   BTS-08   BTS-09   BTS-10    WEEKDAY BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10
      00:00-01:00                                                                                             00:00-01:00
      02:00-03:00                                                                                             02:00-03:00
      03:00-04:00
      04:00-05:00
                    Weekday While-at-Home – Use by BTS                                                        03:00-04:00
                                                                                                              04:00-05:00
                                                                                                                             Weekday While-at-Work – Use by BTS
      05:00-06:00                                                                                             05:00-06:00
      06:00-07:00                                                                                             06:00-07:00
      07:00-08:00                                                                                             07:00-08:00
      08:00-09:00                                                                                             08:00-09:00
      09:00-10:00                                                                                             09:00-10:00
      10:00-11:00                                                                                             10:00-11:00
      11:00-12:00                                                                                             11:00-12:00
      12:00-13:00                                                                                             12:00-13:00
      13:00-14:00                                                                                             13:00-14:00
      14:00-15:00                                                                                             14:00-15:00
      15:00-16:00                                                                                             15:00-16:00
      16:00-17:00                                                                                             16:00-17:00
      17:00-18:00                                                                                             17:00-18:00
      18:00-19:00                                                                                             18:00-19:00
      19:00-20:00                                                                                             19:00-20:00
      20:00-21:00                                                                                             20:00-21:00

                                                                   Mon-Sun by BTS                                                                                    Mon-Fri/Sat by BTS
      21:00-22:00                                                                                             21:00-22:00
      22:00-23:00                                                                                             22:00-23:00
      23:00-24:00                                                                                             23:00-24:00



      WEEKEND BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10                            WEEKDAY      BTS-01   BTS-02   BTS-03   BTS-04   BTS-05   BTS-06   BTS-07   BTS-08   BTS-09   BTS-10
     00:00-01:00                                                                                              00:00-01:00
     02:00-03:00                                                                                              02:00-03:00
     03:00-04:00
     04:00-05:00     Weekend While-at-Play – Use by BTS                                                       03:00-04:00
                                                                                                              04:00-05:00        Before & After Work – Use by BTS
     05:00-06:00                                                                                              05:00-06:00
     06:00-07:00                                                                                              06:00-07:00
     07:00-08:00                                                                                              07:00-08:00
     08:00-09:00                                                                                              08:00-09:00
     09:00-10:00                                                                                              09:00-10:00
     10:00-11:00                                                                                              10:00-11:00
     11:00-12:00                                                                                              11:00-12:00
     12:00-13:00                                                                                              12:00-13:00
     13:00-14:00                                                                                              13:00-14:00
     14:00-15:00                                                                                              14:00-15:00
     15:00-16:00                                                                                              15:00-16:00
     16:00-17:00                                                                                              16:00-17:00
     17:00-18:00                                                                                              17:00-18:00
     18:00-19:00                                                                                              18:00-19:00
     19:00-20:00                                                                                              19:00-20:00
     20:00-21:00                                                                                              20:00-21:00

                                                                     Sat/Sun by BTS                                                                                  Mon-Fri/Sat by BTS
     21:00-22:00                                                                                              21:00-22:00
     22:00-23:00                                                                                              22:00-23:00
     23:00-24:00                                                                                              23:00-24:00




                    BTS = local cell transmitter                                     Usage: Low/No Medium                     High

21                                                                                  Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Overlaid type of usage by channel (www, voice, text)
      WEEKDAY      BTS-01   BTS-02   BTS-03   BTS-04   BTS-05   BTS-06   BTS-07   BTS-08   BTS-09   BTS-10     WEEKDAY       BTS-01    BTS-02    BTS-03    BTS-04   BTS-05   BTS-06   BTS-07   BTS-08   BTS-09   BTS-10
                                                                                                              00:00-01:00
                         Weekday While-at-Home – Use by                                                                               Weekday While-at-Work – Use by
     00:00-01:00
     02:00-03:00                                                                                              02:00-03:00
     03:00-04:00                                                                                              03:00-04:00
     04:00-05:00
     05:00-06:00
                                 Product & BTS                                                                04:00-05:00
                                                                                                              05:00-06:00
                                                                                                                                             Product & BTS
     06:00-07:00                                                                                              06:00-07:00    WWW
     07:00-08:00                                                                                              07:00-08:00    WWW         S
     08:00-09:00   WWW                                                                                        08:00-09:00     S          V        V
     09:00-10:00   WWW       V                                                      V        V                09:00-10:00                V        V          S       S
     10:00-11:00    V        S                                                               S        V       10:00-11:00                        WWW         V      WWW
     11:00-12:00    V        S                                    V                                   S       11:00-12:00                                    V       V
     12:00-13:00    S        V         V                          V                                   S       12:00-13:00                                            V                                             V
     13:00-14:00    S        S         V                                                              V       13:00-14:00                                           WWW         S                S                 V
     14:00-15:00   WWW       V         S                                                              V       14:00-15:00                                           WWW         S                S                 V
     15:00-16:00    V        V         S                                                     S        V       15:00-16:00                                            S          S                                  V
     16:00-17:00             V         V                          V                 V                 S       16:00-17:00                                            V
     17:00-18:00    V        S                                    V        V                                  17:00-18:00                         S          S       V
     18:00-19:00    V       WWW                                   V                                           18:00-19:00               S        WWW         V       V
     19:00-20:00    V                                             V                                           19:00-20:00     S        WWW                   V       V
     20:00-21:00    V                                             S                                           20:00-21:00    WWW        V         V          V       V          S

                                                                  Mon-Sun by BTS                                                                                          Mon-Fri/Sat by BTS
     21:00-22:00    V                                                                                         21:00-22:00     V         V         V          S       S
     22:00-23:00   WWW                                                                                        22:00-23:00     V        WWW       WWW
     23:00-24:00                                                                                              23:00-24:00



      WEEKEND      BTS-01   BTS-02   BTS-03   BTS-04   BTS-05   BTS-06   BTS-07   BTS-08   BTS-09   BTS-10    WEEKDAY       BTS-01    BTS-02    BTS-03    BTS-04    BTS-05   BTS-06   BTS-07   BTS-08   BTS-09   BTS-10
     00:00-01:00     V        V        V        V        V        V        V        V        V               00:00-01:00
     02:00-03:00
     03:00-04:00
                     S
                            Weekend While-at-Play – Use by
                                                         S        S        S                 S               02:00-03:00
                                                                                                             03:00-04:00
                                                                                                                            Before & After Work - – Use by Product
                                                                                                             04:00-05:00
     04:00-05:00
     05:00-06:00                   Product & BTS                                                             05:00-06:00                    & BTS
     06:00-07:00                                                                                             06:00-07:00    WWW
     07:00-08:00                                                                                             07:00-08:00     V        WWW
     08:00-09:00     S                                                                                       08:00-09:00     V         V          V         V         V
     09:00-10:00     V        V        S        S                                                            09:00-10:00               S          V         V
     10:00-11:00     V                          V       S                                           WWW      10:00-11:00
     11:00-12:00     V                                  V                                            S       11:00-12:00
     12:00-13:00                                        V         S                 V                V       12:00-13:00
     13:00-14:00                                        V         V                 S                V       13:00-14:00                                              V        S      WWW
     14:00-15:00                                        V         V                 S                V       14:00-15:00                                              V        S      WWW
     15:00-16:00    V                                   V         S                 V                V       15:00-16:00
     16:00-17:00    V                                   V                                            V       16:00-17:00
     17:00-18:00    V                                   V                                            S       17:00-18:00
     18:00-19:00    V                          S        S                                           WWW      18:00-19:00                                    V         V
     19:00-20:00    S                  V      WWW      WWW                                                   19:00-20:00                V         V         V
     20:00-21:00    V                  V                                  V                 V                20:00-21:00     V          S         S         V         V        V
                   WWW      WWW                                           V                 S                                V          S         V         V         V
                                                                      Sat/Sun by BTS                                                                                      Mon-Fri/Sat by BTS
     21:00-22:00                                                                                             21:00-22:00
     22:00-23:00   WWW                                  S        S        S                 S                22:00-23:00    WWW         S         S
     23:00-24:00   WWW      WWW      WWW      WWW      WWW      WWW      WWW
                                                                           WWW             WWW               23:00-24:00




                   BTS = local cell transmitter                                     Usage: Low/No Medium                     High

22                                                                                 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Micro-segmentation-based targeting (model based):
• Lifestage, Lifestyle, Segmentation tracking for each new and high-
  value 3G/4G target subscriber
     – To optimize incremental revenue and retention (See following 2 slides)
• A "What's Your Interest" Behavior Segmentation study based on 7-
  digit SMS numbers and keywords to outside vendors;
     – A data mining exercise to understand subscriber purchases and the
       interests they reflect for our subscribers – to improve targeting
• The Next-Best-Offer(s) study
     – Identifying 1-5 high-propensity-to-purchase Offers (in priority sequence)
     – To include 3G/4G offering models to identify highest-propensity targets
• Credit rating (for new subs) through their Network Credit Score (NCS)
  based on the credit of known subscribers they call in their first weeks;
     – A study of the assumption that a new subscriber’s credit score / default
       propensity rating will be similar to that of his/her friends and/or co-workers
       with whom he/she speaks;
       – Very useful in the first weeks/months of a subscriber’s relationship when direct credit
         history is not available


23                                   Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Revenue & retention strategies by lifecycle & segment
                              Rchg Amt
         First Experience                                                            Includes        Action/Offer
         1. First Sales &                                                          • Prospect Acq.   • Right Plan?
            Mktg Contact                                                           • Lead Source     • Multi-SIMs?
         2. First Cust.                                                            • CAV-CV-AV    • Interests?
            Documents                                                              • Demographics • Referrals?
     C
     U   3. First Call-                                                            • QA Monitoring • Credit needs?
            SMS-Data                                                               • Roam-STD-ISD • Referrals?
     S
         4. First Voice                                                            • On-Net-SMS   • Call Patterns?
     T      Promotion                                                              • Roam-STD-ISD • Offers?
     O
         5. First Data, H/S                                                        • Data, VAS       • Handset?
     M      or VAS Promo                                                           • GPRS, WAP       • Get email add?
     E
         6. First Cust.                                                            • Issue           • Billing?
     R      Care Contact                                                           • Request         • Quality?

         7. First Outgoing                                                         • Usage high      • Extend credit ?
     T      Call Barring                                                           • Payment late    • Solve Issue ?
     R   8. First Churn                                                            • Solve issue     • Handset?
     A      Prevention                                                             • Add value       • Plan or Pack?
     C   9. First Service                                                          • Money           • Higher limit?
     K      Reactivation                                                           • Documents       • Other help?
     S   10. First Referral                                                        • Contact info    • CUG?
            Request                                                                • Incentives      • Cash rewards

         11. First Win-                                                            • Alt contact     • Pre-MNP?
            Back Attempt                                                           • Solve issues    • Post-MNP?
                                     Week-1     Week-2        Month-1      Qtr-1


24
                                         Wk-1 Wk-2 Wk-3 Wk-4
                                           Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Revenue & retention strategies by lifecycle & segment

Strategy                                             Tactics
1. Segment customer base by how                      1. Map the behavior of new and
   they use and value our services                      existing high-value customers from
   during the day:                                      first contact to better understand:
     –   Personal usage
                                                         –   When they use the services
     –   Family usage
                                                         –   How they use the services
     –   Productive usage
                                                         –   What issues they might face
     –   Non-usage
                                                         –   Opportunities for add-on services
2. Track this behavior from first
   contact with the customer using                   2. Create a Net Customer Value
   existing systems and data:                           (NCV) for each subscriber:
     – Optimize return-on-customer                       – Their social network profile and that of
       interaction from both a revenue and                 their contacts including in/out patterns,
       customer satisfaction perspective                   credit profiles, and more;
       (the definition of CVM)
     – Automate tracking of key events and               – Their network ARPU based on the total
       set up proactive solution triggers.                 revenue at risk x AON (with incoming +
                                                           outgoing calls) if they port out;


25                               Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Recommendations for immediate next steps

• A series of 2-5 day workshops can be run with a qualified facilitator
  for each of the 5 key success factor areas for the purpose of:
     – Gathering, analyzing and reporting on the current state of readiness vis-à-
       vis competitors and global best-practices;
     – Informing and transferring knowledge of how leaders in other 3G/4G-
       enabled markets achieved and maintained leadership;
     – Suggesting a desired best-practice state for teams given existing
       capabilities and resources;
     – Detailing the critical-path actions required to ensure organizational
       readiness and implementation;




26                              Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm
Recommendations for immediate next steps

• Workshops would then be followed by implementation support as
  needed to create:
     – Roadmap and Best-practice process documentation
     – Project and program governance
     – Training and implementation support
     – 3G/4G product and service development
     – Content and context partner strategies




27                           Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®

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Strategies For Survival in Telecom\'s Perfect Storm

  • 1. Strategies for Survival from a Perfect Storm in Telecom Ryan Hendricks Campaignist, Inc. September 2010
  • 2. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Rising infrastructure costs and falling margins • Global telecom businesses are under pressure to transform themselves by a “perfect 3G/4G ARPU storm” of business, technology Addressable Market and market pressures; – Addressable Market saturation at high-end ARPU segments; – Falling voice and VAS margins; 3G/4G- enabled – Pending number portability; Services – Telecom handsets are becoming VAS / Data the platform of choice for converged Margins media for the masses (Phone + TV + PC + Cinema); Voice Margins – New skills and revenue model strategies are critical. 2 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 3. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Five (5) Key business transformation drivers • Quantity Focus becoming a Quality Focused Strategy – Customer relationship is moving up the value chain – Volume of acquisitions will not be sufficient to support new business models – especially given falling margins for traditional services Old Business Drivers New Business Drivers 1. Voice and VAS 1. Content and Context Becoming 2. Customer Acquisition 2. Customer Cultivation 3. Who, What 3. How, Why, When, Where 4. Product excellence 4. Insight Process excellence 5. Network coverage 5. Network applications Quantity focus becoming a quality focus 3 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 4. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Business transformation success factors • Successfully competing in this transformed market will require new skills in understanding customers, anticipating their needs and wants, and developing new products and services rapidly to meet these needs; – Today’s consumers have no time for SPAM and are increasingly exercising their right to not be disturbed by irrelevant promotions and communications –On average >50% of subscribers are on Do-Not-Disturb – blocking direct promos 3G/4G Business Drivers 3G/4G Success Factors 1. Content and Context Partnership strategies 2. Customer Cultivation Listen, learn, apply insights 3. How, Why, When, Where 3G Master Data Roadmap 4. Insight Process excellence Align sales, marketing, retail 5. Network applications Leverage network capabilities 3G/4G business drivers and key success factors 4 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 5. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Multi-media converged “Monetization of Time” (MOT) • Successful media businesses (telecom, internet, television, cinema and traditional publishing) compete to make the most revenue out of every minute of a customer’s available time and are proxies for emerging smart phone driven telecom’s 3G/4G battle: • With the advent of 3G/4G networks and the mobile phone becoming the platform of choice for convergent media, telecom companies have to quickly move up the maturity curve on MOT; – And take advantage of the always on, always available nature of the broadband cell phone by providing the customer with targeted, relevant, instant access to what they need, what they want, and productivity tools that free up more time … – The moments in the morning, at lunch, in the evenings, on weekends, during holidays and even sick-days when a consumer can decide “what do I want to do now?” are the focus of media businesses everywhere; 5 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 6. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Understanding both sides of the CVM coin • Customer Value Management (CVM) is often viewed through a one-dimensional lens – a company’s value of their customer. – Effective CVM includes our value of them and their value of us INSIDE-OUT (our value of them): OUTSIDE-IN (their value of us): How They Satisfy Our Needs How We Satisfy Their Needs 1. Revenue 1. Value-for-money 2. Age-on-Network 2. Customer Satisfaction 3. Higher credit rating 3. Flexible credit limits 4. Lower Cost-to-Serve (CTS) 4. Easy, multi-channel self-service 5. Increasing number of product/service 5. Single trusted vendor for all desired subscriptions products/services, everywhere 6. High-end, high-volume, right time 6. High-performance, high-value, timely product/service users product availability 7. Social Network ARPU value 7. Social Network app’s and services 8. Recommendations and referrals 8. Pride of product/service ownership 9. Providing insights for new products 9. Providing incentives for feedback Companies focus mostly on just 1 side of the Customer Value coin 6 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 7. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm A best-practice approach to segmentation maturity High Value Segmentation Capability WHY WHERE Maturity Model Self-Learning Segmentation WHEN Value Delivered Predictive Modeling HOW Delivery Decision Rules WHAT Customer Event Triggers HOW MUCH Customer Behavior WHO Customer Profile Low Value Reactive Request Mgmt Aware Developing Practicing Optimizing Leading Level of Maturity 7 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 8. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm A best-practice approach to segmentation maturity • Financial/Value Segmentation • Interaction & C-SAT Segmentation – Mostly ARPU & Credit context – Issues and touch-point context Cred it limit in tact New Segmentation HAPPY DOPEY SNEEZY Very High Usage High Usage Sporadic Usage No C-SAT Issues Lots of Issues In termitten t Issu es L-1 L-2 L-5 Large Social NW Loves VAS Negative WOM DOC BASHFUL GRUMPY High Usage Low-Mediu m Usage Freq uen t complaints Queen Bee Worker Bee C-4 Usag e Stead ily Falling L-3 L-4 Pays on Last Day Paymen ts on time Paymen ts o n time New segmentation will be common across all areas; GSM/ CDMA, • Propensity to XYZ across Businesses Prepaid/post paid/ and Segmentation • Lifecycle & Lifestyle Segmentation – Deciles of likely-to-churn context – Spending, time-of-day, geo & products 10 51.7 10 46.7 10 44.2 ID EXAMPLES OF LIFESTYLE-DRIVEN USAGE SEGMENTS LIFESTYLE USAGE CATEGORY 9 46.2 9 31.4 9 43.4 CS-1 ABOVE HALF-TANKERS: Very active high credit balance Subscribers who rarely allow their credit lim it to fall CREDIT AND SPENDING PROFILES below half the m axim um. 8 36.7 8 42.2 8 55.7 RUNNING ON FUMES: Heavy users who regularly use services while at the edge of their disposable credit, CS-2 CREDIT AND SPENDING PROFILES 7 43.0 7 24.1 7 31.9 once in a while falling into suspension m ode. Decile Decile Decile 6 33.6 6 16.6 6 34.4 TD-2 WHILE-AT-WORKERS: Subscribers who use services during working hours but not before or after (business TIME AND DAY USAGE PROFILES users or hom em akers talking to friends or vendors). 5 26.2 5 19.1 5 29.5 WHILE-AT-PLAYERS: Subscribers who use services after working hours and on weekends and avail of TD-3 TIME AND DAY USAGE PROFILES entertainm ent VAS (astrology, jokes, sports, etc…). 4 18.8 4 22.0 4 19.2 NI HNI NHNI GO-1 MOBILE PROFESSIONALS: Frequently roam away from their Hom e State. GEOGRAPHIC USAGE 3 10.3 3 7.0 3 13.5 GO-2 AWAY-FROM-HOME WORKERS: Frequently m ake STD calls. GEOGRAPHIC USAGE 2 4.0 2 0.6 22.1 PU-1 DATA CARD USERS: People who use Data Cards for internet access (and VOIP) PRODUCT USAGE – DATA CARD 1 1.1 1 0.0 1 0.6 PU-2 MULTIPLE SUBSCRIPTIONS: People who have m ore than one RCOM service. PRODUCT USAGE – MULTIPLE RCOM POPULAR QUEEN BEES: Subscribers who receive m uch m ore inbound contact from m any different people 0 20 40 60 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 SN-1 than the outbound contacts they initiate. SOCIAL NETWORK PROFILES Do Not Disturb Do Not Disturb Do Not Disturb SN-2 LONELY WORKER BEES: Subscribers who m ake m uch m ore outbound contact than they receive from others. SOCIAL NETWORK PROFILES • Interest-Driven Segmentation • Social Networking Segmentation – Entertainment, interaction, commerce … – Network ARPU, calling patterns, CLV Religion There are 1,000’s of Potential Addressable Micro-segments based on existing data. 8 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 9. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm A segment behavior personification example Five (5) Examples Likely-to-Churn Behavior Segments TERMINATED IN JAIL SNEEZY Voluntary Suspended Sporadic Usage C-1 C-2 Involuntary Grace Intermittent Issues C-5 Migration Negative Balance Negative WOM COMATOSE GRUMPY Active then asleep Frequent complaints C-3 Open Issue C-4 Usage Steadily Falling Credit limit intact Payments on time A simple example for illustration purposes only. 9 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 10. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm A segment behavior personification example Five (5) Examples of Likely-to-Remain-Loyal Behavior Segments HAPPY DOPEY SLEEPY Very High Usage High Usage Always low usage L-5 No C-SAT Issues Lots of Issues No complaints L-1 L-2 Large Social NW Loves VAS Payments on time DOC BASHFUL High Usage Low-Medium Usage Queen Bee Worker Bee L-3 L-4 Pays on Last Day Payments on time A simple example for illustration purposes only. 10 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 11. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm A segment behavior matrix example Credit Time & Day Social Geographic Product Churn-Loyalty &Spending Usage Networks Usage Usage Segment Lifestyle Lifestyle Lifestyle Lifestyle Lifestyle C-1: Terminated CS3, CS-4 GO-2 PU-3 C-2: In Jail CS-2, CS-3 TD-3 SN-1 PU-5, PU-8 C-3: Comatose CS-5 TD-2 GO-1, GO-4 PU-2, PU-4 C-4: Grumpy CS-2 TD-1 SN-2 PU-4, PU-7 C-5: Sneezy CS-5 GO-3 PU-3 L-1: Happy CS1, CS-4 TD-3 SN-1, SN-2 GO-1, GO-4, PU-1, PU-2, GO-5, GO-6 PU-4, PU-8 L-2: Dopey CS1, CS-4 TD-1 SN-2, GO-2 PU-1, PU-2, PU-4, PU-8 L-3: Doc CS1, CS-4 TD-2 SN-3 GO-5, GO-6 PU-1, PU-2, PU-4, PU-8 L-4: Bashful CS-5 SN-4 GO-4 PU-1 L-5: Sleepy CS-4 TD-3 SN-2 GO-1 PU-8 A simple example for illustration purposes only. 11 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 12. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Adding interests creates 1000’s of micro segments Adding financial, lifestyle, interest and other data further extends the targeting to 1000’s of micro segments. 12 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 13. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Untargeted promos closing key contact channels • Poorly segmented, untargeted campaign tactics have resulted in a majority of subscribers closing key promotional channels (DNC/DND*) – Those who value their time the most (the busiest) subscribe to DNC/DND fastest; – As a result, ARPU per Value-Added-Service (VAS) Subscriber Sale has fallen steadily If High Value Subscribers DND First As the Net DND Base Increases … High Low No of ARPU Subs DND DND NUMBER of Subscribers DND ARPU per Subscriber DND ARPU ARPU ARPU ARPU Low A high number of Low value subscribers High No of ARPU remain in this part of the pyramid. Subs Eventually mostly Low value subscribers remain The ARPU per Value-Added Sale Falls. *DND is Do Not Disturb (Do Not Call) 13 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 14. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Revenue impact of advanced segmentation • A recent Gartner article highlighted the need to move beyond the traditional static promotions we use today to dynamic, interactive, value-focused ones with higher response and conversion rates (ROI). The response rates for each level are: • LEVEL 1 generates a 2% response – Traditional static promotions (1-way): – A. traditional segmentation with promotions based on demographics like geo area and spend • LEVEL 2:generates a 10-15% response – Dynamic promotions (individual): – Active real-time listening of customer behavior with triggers generating personal promotions. • LEVEL 3:generates a 20-30% response – Super micro-segmentation (network) – Leveraging viral marketing through social networks to optimize network ARPU and CVM • LEVEL 4 creates brand new incremental revenue streams from Partner promotions – Leveraging customer insights to generate new sources of incremental revenue from location- and time-based targeted mobile advertising and content subscriptions with partners. http://www.gartner.com/technology/media-products/custom_multimedia/rate_integration.html 14 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 15. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Recommendations for immediate next steps • Examples of initiatives that should be initiated or expanded; 1. Product usage behavioral clustering studies: Grouping subscribers based on their known behavior; 2. Customer Lifetime Value Studies (statistical models): Estimation of direct and indirect customer value for improving prioritization and ROI of CRM investments; 3. Macro-level behavioral segmentation (using location data): Identification of housewives, professionals, office staff and laborers based on location-based tracking and usage data; 4. Micro-segmentation-based propensity targeting: Using existing CDR and other granular usage data, apply predictive modeling tools to identify high-propensity 3G/4G targets from existing and prospective customers (and prioritize them based on CLV); 15 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 16. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm An example of telecom behavioral clustering OUT- OUT- All Bill Avg Cost Per # OUT- IN-Calls IN-SMS IN-SMS IN-SMS Cluster # IN-Calls Calls Bill Roam OUT-ILD IN-ILD Complaint Complaint ARPU Unit Calls Bill Dur All Local STD Dur Dur s s 1 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 5 10 10 10 2 9 6 9 9 8 9 9 8 5 8 3 8 8 8 3 8 7 6 7 9 7 7 6 8 9 4 9 9 9 4 7 2 4 8 4 8 8 5 4 7 8 4 4 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 6 6 7 6 5 7 6 5 1 2 5 1 6 6 3 1 4 9 1 1 2 7 4 8 7 6 6 3 2 7 2 3 2 7 6 4 8 2 3 3 2 3 4 4 1 3 5 10 3 3 5 9 1 4 1 1 2 2 3 2 7 2 6 2 2 3 10 3 10 8 3 7 1 1 10 10 1 1 5 7 1 OUT- OUT- Avg Cost Per #OUT- IN-Calls All Bill IN-SMS IN-SMS IN-SMS Cluster # IN-Calls Calls Bill Roam OUT-ILD IN-ILD ARPU Unit Calls Bill Dur Complaints Complaints All Local STD Duratn. Dur 1 504.77 17.58 75.18 75.02 106.75 127.32 8.4 0.92 0.05 0.82 0.2 38.97 12.36 3.54 2 673.42 3.06 196 173.71 308.22 278.2 13.26 1.29 0.08 0.88 0.21 63.16 27.58 7.84 3 927.21 5.8 215.48 335.96 306.99 610.73 34.86 2.17 0.05 0.87 0.2 62.65 25.83 7.79 4 951.06 1.48 425.6 318.26 723.1 511.54 21.76 2.58 0.09 0.9 0.19 117.87 68.1 17.37 5 1243.19 2.89 398.02 604.33 562.67 1013.07 49.98 2.99 0.07 0.93 0.19 94.19 47.7 13.32 6 1289.07 0.96 801.13 547.21 1511.51 935.43 35.93 3.69 0.14 0.97 0.17 195.6 124.15 33.55 7 1294.39 14.53 215.25 541.19 410.75 2168.21 184.86 1.46 0.12 1.03 0.26 93.9 42.26 25.77 8 1732.47 2.1 693.4 1002.96 948.38 1577.06 62.45 4.51 0.11 0.96 0.17 138.64 78.23 20.05 9 1971.42 2.61 915.11 1458.19 1342.06 2847.41 90.57 4.15 0.06 1.07 0.19 186.01 114.52 28.45 10 1358.64 26.76 196.74 720.16 385.33 5645.82 326.26 0.6 0.01 1.1 0.35 104.51 36.33 42.45 Behavioral clusters example 16 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 17. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm An example of telecom behavioral clustering Cluster 1: 9th or 10th in Cluster 10: #1 IN 10/34 everything except - #5 Measures,#1 SMS, Local IN - 10 #1 in BILL COMPLAINTS, #1 in in BILL COMPLAINTS 1 ARPU per MOU, #10 in ILD, Cluster Avg. #8/9 in OFF-net-IN No. ARPU Cluster 2:8th or 9th in all 2 1 504.77 except ILD-IN - #3 in 2 673.42 BILL COMPLAINTS 3 927.21 9 4 951.06 Cluster 9: #1 in 13/34 3 Measures and #1/2/3 in 30/34, 5 1243.19 Cluster 3:8th or 9th in all 6 1289.07 #4 in ARPU per MOU, #7 ILD- except ILD, NLD and #4 7 1294.39 IN, #6 in BILL COMPLAINTS in BILL COMPLAINTS 8 1732.47 8 4 9 1971.42 10 1358.64 Cluster 8: #1 ILD-OUT MOU, Cluster 4: #4/5 in 14/34 #2/3 in 20/34 Measures - #2 in Measures - #2 ARPU 7 OUT, ARPU and #10 in BILL per MOU and in #3 in 5 COMPLAINTS IN-Local Onnet MOU 6 Cluster 7: #2 in ILD-IN Cluster 5: #4/5 in 19/34 and ILD OUT (all) and Measures - #3 in Local Cluster 6: #1/2/3 in 19/34 NATIONAL ROAM - #2 OUT Calls MOU Measures - #1 ARPU per in BILL COMPLAINTS MOU, INCOMING - ILD, NLD, ON-OFFNET, SMS Behavioral clusters example 17 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 18. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) Study example: AC : Acquisition Cost (one time) Rt : Revenue at time “t” SCt : Servicing Cost at time “t” CLV calculation formula example 18 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 19. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Product usage by time-of-day points to needs • To monetize subscriber time better than our competitors, we need to know: – Whether they use our services for work, play, family or a combination; – When and where they use our services; • So if we know what they use our services for, we need to know how and when we should try to promote something to them based on: – Their Supply of available time and attention – When they’re more likely to Listen – Their Demand for what we’re offering (probability of additional needs and wants) – And our ability to provide them 10 8 6 4 2 At Work 0 At Play 19 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 20. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Product usage by time-of-day points to needs WEEKEND BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10 While at Play Segments: 00:00-01:00 02:00-03:00 03:00-04:00 04:00-05:00 Weekend While-at-Play – Use by BTS • End-of-the-day, early morning calls home or 05:00-06:00 06:00-07:00 two fellow party-goers; 07:00-08:00 08:00-09:00 09:00-10:00 • Planning the weekend, evening, lunch, 10:00-11:00 11:00-12:00 outings with friends/co-workers, etc…; 12:00-13:00 13:00-14:00 14:00-15:00 15:00-16:00 • Calling local friends, planning the evening, 16:00-17:00 17:00-18:00 chatting, web-surfing; 18:00-19:00 19:00-20:00 20:00-21:00 • Subscribers making and receiving calls from Sat/Sun by BTS 21:00-22:00 22:00-23:00 23:00-24:00 friends or relatives overseas (in/out); WEEKDAY BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10 00:00-01:00 • Families making and receiving calls from 02:00-03:00 03:00-04:00 04:00-05:00 Weekday While-at-Work – Use by BTS overseas. 05:00-06:00 06:00-07:00 07:00-08:00 08:00-09:00 While at Work Segments: 09:00-10:00 10:00-11:00 11:00-12:00 • Weekday business calls, conference calls, 12:00-13:00 13:00-14:00 sales calls, vendor calls, etc… 14:00-15:00 15:00-16:00 16:00-17:00 17:00-18:00 • Saturday first-half and Sunday last-half of the 18:00-19:00 19:00-20:00 day business calls 20:00-21:00 Mon-Fri/Sat by BTS 21:00-22:00 • 22:00-23:00 Except for those who work all day Saturday and 23:00-24:00 those that are off Saturdays Home BTS = local cell transmitter Work Usage: Low/No Medium High 20 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 21. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Daily mobility patterns identify type of user (home/work) WEEKDAY BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10 WEEKDAY BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10 00:00-01:00 00:00-01:00 02:00-03:00 02:00-03:00 03:00-04:00 04:00-05:00 Weekday While-at-Home – Use by BTS 03:00-04:00 04:00-05:00 Weekday While-at-Work – Use by BTS 05:00-06:00 05:00-06:00 06:00-07:00 06:00-07:00 07:00-08:00 07:00-08:00 08:00-09:00 08:00-09:00 09:00-10:00 09:00-10:00 10:00-11:00 10:00-11:00 11:00-12:00 11:00-12:00 12:00-13:00 12:00-13:00 13:00-14:00 13:00-14:00 14:00-15:00 14:00-15:00 15:00-16:00 15:00-16:00 16:00-17:00 16:00-17:00 17:00-18:00 17:00-18:00 18:00-19:00 18:00-19:00 19:00-20:00 19:00-20:00 20:00-21:00 20:00-21:00 Mon-Sun by BTS Mon-Fri/Sat by BTS 21:00-22:00 21:00-22:00 22:00-23:00 22:00-23:00 23:00-24:00 23:00-24:00 WEEKEND BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10 WEEKDAY BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10 00:00-01:00 00:00-01:00 02:00-03:00 02:00-03:00 03:00-04:00 04:00-05:00 Weekend While-at-Play – Use by BTS 03:00-04:00 04:00-05:00 Before & After Work – Use by BTS 05:00-06:00 05:00-06:00 06:00-07:00 06:00-07:00 07:00-08:00 07:00-08:00 08:00-09:00 08:00-09:00 09:00-10:00 09:00-10:00 10:00-11:00 10:00-11:00 11:00-12:00 11:00-12:00 12:00-13:00 12:00-13:00 13:00-14:00 13:00-14:00 14:00-15:00 14:00-15:00 15:00-16:00 15:00-16:00 16:00-17:00 16:00-17:00 17:00-18:00 17:00-18:00 18:00-19:00 18:00-19:00 19:00-20:00 19:00-20:00 20:00-21:00 20:00-21:00 Sat/Sun by BTS Mon-Fri/Sat by BTS 21:00-22:00 21:00-22:00 22:00-23:00 22:00-23:00 23:00-24:00 23:00-24:00 BTS = local cell transmitter Usage: Low/No Medium High 21 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 22. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Overlaid type of usage by channel (www, voice, text) WEEKDAY BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10 WEEKDAY BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10 00:00-01:00 Weekday While-at-Home – Use by Weekday While-at-Work – Use by 00:00-01:00 02:00-03:00 02:00-03:00 03:00-04:00 03:00-04:00 04:00-05:00 05:00-06:00 Product & BTS 04:00-05:00 05:00-06:00 Product & BTS 06:00-07:00 06:00-07:00 WWW 07:00-08:00 07:00-08:00 WWW S 08:00-09:00 WWW 08:00-09:00 S V V 09:00-10:00 WWW V V V 09:00-10:00 V V S S 10:00-11:00 V S S V 10:00-11:00 WWW V WWW 11:00-12:00 V S V S 11:00-12:00 V V 12:00-13:00 S V V V S 12:00-13:00 V V 13:00-14:00 S S V V 13:00-14:00 WWW S S V 14:00-15:00 WWW V S V 14:00-15:00 WWW S S V 15:00-16:00 V V S S V 15:00-16:00 S S V 16:00-17:00 V V V V S 16:00-17:00 V 17:00-18:00 V S V V 17:00-18:00 S S V 18:00-19:00 V WWW V 18:00-19:00 S WWW V V 19:00-20:00 V V 19:00-20:00 S WWW V V 20:00-21:00 V S 20:00-21:00 WWW V V V V S Mon-Sun by BTS Mon-Fri/Sat by BTS 21:00-22:00 V 21:00-22:00 V V V S S 22:00-23:00 WWW 22:00-23:00 V WWW WWW 23:00-24:00 23:00-24:00 WEEKEND BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10 WEEKDAY BTS-01 BTS-02 BTS-03 BTS-04 BTS-05 BTS-06 BTS-07 BTS-08 BTS-09 BTS-10 00:00-01:00 V V V V V V V V V 00:00-01:00 02:00-03:00 03:00-04:00 S Weekend While-at-Play – Use by S S S S 02:00-03:00 03:00-04:00 Before & After Work - – Use by Product 04:00-05:00 04:00-05:00 05:00-06:00 Product & BTS 05:00-06:00 & BTS 06:00-07:00 06:00-07:00 WWW 07:00-08:00 07:00-08:00 V WWW 08:00-09:00 S 08:00-09:00 V V V V V 09:00-10:00 V V S S 09:00-10:00 S V V 10:00-11:00 V V S WWW 10:00-11:00 11:00-12:00 V V S 11:00-12:00 12:00-13:00 V S V V 12:00-13:00 13:00-14:00 V V S V 13:00-14:00 V S WWW 14:00-15:00 V V S V 14:00-15:00 V S WWW 15:00-16:00 V V S V V 15:00-16:00 16:00-17:00 V V V 16:00-17:00 17:00-18:00 V V S 17:00-18:00 18:00-19:00 V S S WWW 18:00-19:00 V V 19:00-20:00 S V WWW WWW 19:00-20:00 V V V 20:00-21:00 V V V V 20:00-21:00 V S S V V V WWW WWW V S V S V V V Sat/Sun by BTS Mon-Fri/Sat by BTS 21:00-22:00 21:00-22:00 22:00-23:00 WWW S S S S 22:00-23:00 WWW S S 23:00-24:00 WWW WWW WWW WWW WWW WWW WWW WWW WWW 23:00-24:00 BTS = local cell transmitter Usage: Low/No Medium High 22 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 23. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Micro-segmentation-based targeting (model based): • Lifestage, Lifestyle, Segmentation tracking for each new and high- value 3G/4G target subscriber – To optimize incremental revenue and retention (See following 2 slides) • A "What's Your Interest" Behavior Segmentation study based on 7- digit SMS numbers and keywords to outside vendors; – A data mining exercise to understand subscriber purchases and the interests they reflect for our subscribers – to improve targeting • The Next-Best-Offer(s) study – Identifying 1-5 high-propensity-to-purchase Offers (in priority sequence) – To include 3G/4G offering models to identify highest-propensity targets • Credit rating (for new subs) through their Network Credit Score (NCS) based on the credit of known subscribers they call in their first weeks; – A study of the assumption that a new subscriber’s credit score / default propensity rating will be similar to that of his/her friends and/or co-workers with whom he/she speaks; – Very useful in the first weeks/months of a subscriber’s relationship when direct credit history is not available 23 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 24. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Revenue & retention strategies by lifecycle & segment Rchg Amt First Experience Includes Action/Offer 1. First Sales & • Prospect Acq. • Right Plan? Mktg Contact • Lead Source • Multi-SIMs? 2. First Cust. • CAV-CV-AV • Interests? Documents • Demographics • Referrals? C U 3. First Call- • QA Monitoring • Credit needs? SMS-Data • Roam-STD-ISD • Referrals? S 4. First Voice • On-Net-SMS • Call Patterns? T Promotion • Roam-STD-ISD • Offers? O 5. First Data, H/S • Data, VAS • Handset? M or VAS Promo • GPRS, WAP • Get email add? E 6. First Cust. • Issue • Billing? R Care Contact • Request • Quality? 7. First Outgoing • Usage high • Extend credit ? T Call Barring • Payment late • Solve Issue ? R 8. First Churn • Solve issue • Handset? A Prevention • Add value • Plan or Pack? C 9. First Service • Money • Higher limit? K Reactivation • Documents • Other help? S 10. First Referral • Contact info • CUG? Request • Incentives • Cash rewards 11. First Win- • Alt contact • Pre-MNP? Back Attempt • Solve issues • Post-MNP? Week-1 Week-2 Month-1 Qtr-1 24 Wk-1 Wk-2 Wk-3 Wk-4 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 25. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Revenue & retention strategies by lifecycle & segment Strategy Tactics 1. Segment customer base by how 1. Map the behavior of new and they use and value our services existing high-value customers from during the day: first contact to better understand: – Personal usage – When they use the services – Family usage – How they use the services – Productive usage – What issues they might face – Non-usage – Opportunities for add-on services 2. Track this behavior from first contact with the customer using 2. Create a Net Customer Value existing systems and data: (NCV) for each subscriber: – Optimize return-on-customer – Their social network profile and that of interaction from both a revenue and their contacts including in/out patterns, customer satisfaction perspective credit profiles, and more; (the definition of CVM) – Automate tracking of key events and – Their network ARPU based on the total set up proactive solution triggers. revenue at risk x AON (with incoming + outgoing calls) if they port out; 25 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 26. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Recommendations for immediate next steps • A series of 2-5 day workshops can be run with a qualified facilitator for each of the 5 key success factor areas for the purpose of: – Gathering, analyzing and reporting on the current state of readiness vis-à- vis competitors and global best-practices; – Informing and transferring knowledge of how leaders in other 3G/4G- enabled markets achieved and maintained leadership; – Suggesting a desired best-practice state for teams given existing capabilities and resources; – Detailing the critical-path actions required to ensure organizational readiness and implementation; 26 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®
  • 27. Survival Strategies for Telecom’s Perfect Storm Recommendations for immediate next steps • Workshops would then be followed by implementation support as needed to create: – Roadmap and Best-practice process documentation – Project and program governance – Training and implementation support – 3G/4G product and service development – Content and context partner strategies 27 Copyright Campaignist, Inc. ®