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Metrics for assessing
adaptation, risk and resilience
Reinhard Mechler, IIASA
Oktober 26, 2018
International Conference on
Adaptation Metrics for Agriculture, Water and Resilient Cities
Mohammed VI University, Benguerir, Morocco
Adaptation metrics: what to measure?
• Identifying need for adaptation: Vulnerability
Identify and compare state and needs: most vulnerable
• Measuring and tracking inputs, output and process of
implementing adaptive actions:
Input: e.g., spending on flood protection,
Output: e.g., the number of early warning plans implemented,
Process: running an inclusive risk management process
• Measuring the effectiveness of adaptation - monitoring and
evaluation: outcome
Measure progress and provide feedback on the effectiveness of
actions, e.g. flood risk
Demand for adaptation metrics
Moehner, 2018
Uptake in NDCs
Moehner, 2018
EEA 2011
1. Assessing climate vulnerability
Assessing climate vulnerability for water
resources
Sullivan and Byambaa, 2013
Measuring needs
Vulnerability assessment
Sullivan and Byambaa, 2013
Status
• Focussed on need, rather than outcome and
impact
• Construction of V Index not straightforward
• Comparisons across regions and countries
difficult
SOCIOECONOMIC
PROCESSES
Socioeconomic
Pathways
Adaptation and
Mitigation
Actions
Governance
CLIMATE
Natural
Variability
Anthropogenic
Climate Change
RISKHazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
IMPACTS
EMISSIONS
and Land-use Change
2. IPCC’s Climate risk concept
IPCC 2012/2014
Scope for risk
management
Adaptation infeasible:
Limits
IPCC AR5 climate risk management approach:
outcome
Risk:
Potential impacts
Africa
Adaptation infeasible:
Limits
IPCC AR5 climate risk management approach:
outcome
Africa
Status
• Currently expert-based at regional scales
• Impact and risk analysis not yet brought
together with scope for adaptation/risk
management
• Tracing scope for risk management over
time?
• Climate risk attribution difficult
3. Mixed approach: Process + output
Learning across scales
Tracking Adaptation Measuring
Development (TAMD) framework
Brooks and Fisher, 2014
Fisher and Anderson, 2018
Process + output
Learning across scales
Institutional scorecard analysis
Measuring capacity: The Flood Resilience Measurement Tool
(Flood Resilience Alliance)
A: Best practice
B: Good standard, no immediate need for improvement
C: Deficiencies, room for visible improvement
D: Significantly below good standard, potential for imminent loss
Keating et al., 2017
Sources
Interest groupCommunity discussion
Key informantHousehold survey 3rd party source
Understanding Resilience
44 Sources evaluated with mixed methods approach
Tracking progress
Status
• Strongly process-driven
• Quantitative-qualitative
• Focus on output rather than outcome
Final comments
• Water system (resources, flooding) strongly affected by
climate change-directly and indirectly
• Adaptation occurring, but not well observed
• Measuring adaptation complex: work on metrics in flux
• Process-orientation important
• Climate risk management perspective promising
combining qualitative and quantitative aspects

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Adaptation in the context of the IPCC SR 1.5: Water and agriculture

Editor's Notes

  1. Now: disaster and climate Natural disasters? risk linked to natural disasters, as human induced in two regards Exposure and vulnerability Increasingly anthropogenic climate change affecting hazards
  2. Regional Chapters 22 (Africa), 23 (Europe), 24 (Asia), 27 (Central and South America), and Box 7-1 show crop production to be consistently and negatively affected by climate change in the future in low-latitude countries, while climate change may have positive or negative effects in northern latitudes (high confidence).
  3. Regional Chapters 22 (Africa), 23 (Europe), 24 (Asia), 27 (Central and South America), and Box 7-1 show crop production to be consistently and negatively affected by climate change in the future in low-latitude countries, while climate change may have positive or negative effects in northern latitudes (high confidence).
  4. We have come to a point where we have identified 88 sources of resilience. Sources – fixed. Data collection methods are variable to context.