A new framework to test the origins of western American megadroughtScott St. George
We know from tree rings and other natural drought records that the western United States has been affected by several 'megadroughts' during the past millennium. But are these exceptionally long-lasting droughts due to unusual external forcings, or are they inevitable given a sufficiently long period of time? Here we present a statistical model that combines sea surface temperature records and drought severity statistics from the western USA, and use that tool to set out an expectation for megadrought, given no other changes in the climate system. Even though this model was trained using only modern climate data (and incorporates no information from tree rings or other proxies), it still produced megadroughts. Moreover, those simulated megadroughts were just as long-lasting, covered as large an area, and were just as severe as real megadroughts estimated from tree rings. That result means that megadroughts can occur in the western United States even if nothing else changes in the climate -- they really are just a matter of time. On the other hand, the only aspect of real-world megadroughts that the model cannot duplicate was the high number of these events during the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly (800 to 1300 CE). So that cluster of megadroughts may have been caused by some sort of unusual climate circumstances that have not been observed by us during the past few decades. The proxy record tells us that many different kinds of exceptional or unusual climate events happened in the past. But it is often difficult to determine what caused those exceptional events because even, within a period of a thousand years, we still have very few cases. So besides being an aid to understand the causes of past megadroughts, we hope this approach can be applied to other paleoclimate records to distinguish between real interrelations between separate components of the climate system and simple coincidences.
- Explore how crop and forest management influences decadal scale climate predictions
- Improve the representation of managed ecosystems in Earth system models
- Specific focus on institutional strengths: soil carbon dynamics, pine plantation forestry, plant physiology under warming temperatures, forest nitrogen cycling
- Evaluate and reduce uncertainty associated with ecological processes in climate predictions
Linking the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Projected Arctic Sea-Ice Loss to S...Zachary Labe
20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere at the 99th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society (abstract: https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/352664)
Objectives
- Develop an approach to identify the land-surface changes due to wildfires
- Detect land-surface property changes for multiple mega-fires in the U.S.
- Develop a scheme to parameterize the changes
A new framework to test the origins of western American megadroughtScott St. George
We know from tree rings and other natural drought records that the western United States has been affected by several 'megadroughts' during the past millennium. But are these exceptionally long-lasting droughts due to unusual external forcings, or are they inevitable given a sufficiently long period of time? Here we present a statistical model that combines sea surface temperature records and drought severity statistics from the western USA, and use that tool to set out an expectation for megadrought, given no other changes in the climate system. Even though this model was trained using only modern climate data (and incorporates no information from tree rings or other proxies), it still produced megadroughts. Moreover, those simulated megadroughts were just as long-lasting, covered as large an area, and were just as severe as real megadroughts estimated from tree rings. That result means that megadroughts can occur in the western United States even if nothing else changes in the climate -- they really are just a matter of time. On the other hand, the only aspect of real-world megadroughts that the model cannot duplicate was the high number of these events during the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly (800 to 1300 CE). So that cluster of megadroughts may have been caused by some sort of unusual climate circumstances that have not been observed by us during the past few decades. The proxy record tells us that many different kinds of exceptional or unusual climate events happened in the past. But it is often difficult to determine what caused those exceptional events because even, within a period of a thousand years, we still have very few cases. So besides being an aid to understand the causes of past megadroughts, we hope this approach can be applied to other paleoclimate records to distinguish between real interrelations between separate components of the climate system and simple coincidences.
- Explore how crop and forest management influences decadal scale climate predictions
- Improve the representation of managed ecosystems in Earth system models
- Specific focus on institutional strengths: soil carbon dynamics, pine plantation forestry, plant physiology under warming temperatures, forest nitrogen cycling
- Evaluate and reduce uncertainty associated with ecological processes in climate predictions
Linking the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and Projected Arctic Sea-Ice Loss to S...Zachary Labe
20th Conference on Middle Atmosphere at the 99th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society (abstract: https://ams.confex.com/ams/2019Annual/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/352664)
Objectives
- Develop an approach to identify the land-surface changes due to wildfires
- Detect land-surface property changes for multiple mega-fires in the U.S.
- Develop a scheme to parameterize the changes
Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation: impacts on Antarctic climate and...Andrew Russell
Presentation given at the PAGES symposium in Chile in October 2010. (NB I gave this talk before O'Donnell et al. was published so I'd probably do it differently now.)
This describes the components of JGrass-NewAGE, the system we went to develop for having a flexible set of modelling solutions to forecast the water cycle budgets of any basin.
Forecasting monthly water resources conditions by using different indicesAI Publications
Sharp changes in the SWSI are an obstacle for accurate estimation of this parameter. In addition, providing all of the information needed to determine the SWSI is not always possible. The SWE because of effective role in the calculation of the SWSI, it is a viable alternative to forecast instead the SWSI. The obtained results showed that the ARIMA model forecasted the SWE values for January to June successfully. Using these forecasted data and by non-linear regression can be estimated the SWSI values for all points of each basin except in cases that the amounts of SWSI and SWE are very low (drought conditions).
Expanding the window - the past, present, and future of Minnesota's waterScott St. George
Nearly all decisions about water in Minnesota relate either directly or indirectly to data collected by the state’s hydrological observing network. Because most gauges were installed in early 20th century, as a whole the network provides us with roughly a 100-year ‘window’ to estimate flood risks, develop worst-case scenarios for drought, and set maximum allowable withdrawals for aquifers. But when we rely exclusively on observations made during this relatively brief interval, we may inadvertently increase our exposure to hydrological ‘surprises’. In order to make sound decisions about water in Minnesota, we need to expand this window: into the past, drawing upon historical accounts and natural archives; and into the future, via projections from climate and hydrological models. By cultivating a broader perspective on hydrological variability and extremes across the state, we will be better prepared to ensure adequate water supplies and mitigate the impacts of future floods and droughts.
Implicit bias in higher ed - for undergraduatesKim Cobb
A brief overview of the concept of implicit bias as it relates to a campus setting, specifically designed for an undergraduate audience. Discussion-oriented slide set.
Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation: impacts on Antarctic climate and...Andrew Russell
Presentation given at the PAGES symposium in Chile in October 2010. (NB I gave this talk before O'Donnell et al. was published so I'd probably do it differently now.)
This describes the components of JGrass-NewAGE, the system we went to develop for having a flexible set of modelling solutions to forecast the water cycle budgets of any basin.
Forecasting monthly water resources conditions by using different indicesAI Publications
Sharp changes in the SWSI are an obstacle for accurate estimation of this parameter. In addition, providing all of the information needed to determine the SWSI is not always possible. The SWE because of effective role in the calculation of the SWSI, it is a viable alternative to forecast instead the SWSI. The obtained results showed that the ARIMA model forecasted the SWE values for January to June successfully. Using these forecasted data and by non-linear regression can be estimated the SWSI values for all points of each basin except in cases that the amounts of SWSI and SWE are very low (drought conditions).
Expanding the window - the past, present, and future of Minnesota's waterScott St. George
Nearly all decisions about water in Minnesota relate either directly or indirectly to data collected by the state’s hydrological observing network. Because most gauges were installed in early 20th century, as a whole the network provides us with roughly a 100-year ‘window’ to estimate flood risks, develop worst-case scenarios for drought, and set maximum allowable withdrawals for aquifers. But when we rely exclusively on observations made during this relatively brief interval, we may inadvertently increase our exposure to hydrological ‘surprises’. In order to make sound decisions about water in Minnesota, we need to expand this window: into the past, drawing upon historical accounts and natural archives; and into the future, via projections from climate and hydrological models. By cultivating a broader perspective on hydrological variability and extremes across the state, we will be better prepared to ensure adequate water supplies and mitigate the impacts of future floods and droughts.
Implicit bias in higher ed - for undergraduatesKim Cobb
A brief overview of the concept of implicit bias as it relates to a campus setting, specifically designed for an undergraduate audience. Discussion-oriented slide set.
Paleoclimate: past-climate as the key to understand the future. Example from ...Fernando Reche
Conferencia impartida por Vincenzo Pascucci el 1 de abril de 2011 en el marco de los Viernes Científicos, actividad organizada por la Facultad de Ciencias Experimentales de la Universidad de Almería
In many settings, trees growing on floodplains provide an important source of indirect evidence that may be used to infer the occurrence, extent, and magnitude of floods prior to direct observations. That evidence may take several forms, including external scars caused by abrasion or impact from floating debris, anatomical changes within the annual growth increment following prolonged stem or root inundation, or tilting or uprooting due to the hydraulic pressure of floodwaters. Likely the most useful characteristic of paleoflood studies based on floodplain trees is their relatively high temporal resolution and dating accuracy compared to most other methods. Dendrochronological methods can routinely date past floods to the year of their occurrence and, in rare cases, can estimate the timing of floods that occur during the growing season to within two weeks. This high degree of chronological control, which is surpassed only by that provided by direct observation or instrumentation, can be used to determine whether floods in separate watersheds were synchronous or offset by several years and test hypotheses that suppose linkages between extreme floods and specific forcing mechanisms. Furthermore, the wide geographic distribution of tree species with dateable rings combined with the broad suite of methods available to examine interconnections between floods and tree growth allow this style of paleoflood hydrology to be applied to many settings that are not suitable for techniques that depend on geological evidence. Future paleoflood research involving tree rings will need to strike a balance between improving our understanding of the biological and fluvial processes that link tree growth to past events, and providing answers to questions about flood dynamics and hazards that are needed to safeguard people and property from future floods.
The "Year Without A Summer" was not a year without a ringScott St. George
The Tambora eruption of 1815 cooled the planet and caused the "Year Without A Summer" in western Europe and eastern North America. But was it cold enough to cause trees across the Northern Hemisphere to skip a ring?
Noah, Joseph, And High-Resolution PaleoclimatologyScott St. George
In 1968, Benoit Mandelbrot and James Wallis published an article titled ‘Noah, Joseph, and operational Hydrology’ in the journal Water Resources Research. In it, they argued that hydrological models of the day were not able to estimate the true risk of extreme floods or prolonged drought, and that rare hydrological events were much more common than usually assumed.
In this lecture, I’ll review how high-resolution paleoenvironmental archives can help us judge more accurately the risks posed by the ‘Noah’- and ‘Joseph’-style events described by Mandelbrot and Wallis. I’ll give particular emphasis to the environmental information recovered from the rings of ancient trees, and explain how dendrochronology (tree-ring research) has been used to redefine the ‘flood of record’, test potential avenues for long-lead climate predictions, and gage the performance of state-of-the-art climate models.
A Song of Our Warming Planet: Using Music to Communicate Critical Concepts in...Scott St. George
When climate science is communicated to the broader public, many of its key findings are shared in the form of conceptual diagrams or information-dense data graphics. In this collaboration, we applied a data sonification approach to express NASA’s global temperature record as a musical composition for the cello. The resulting piece, which we titled ‘A Song of Our Warming Planet’, transformed 133 years of annual global temperature anomalies into a haunting, atonal melody that stretched across almost all of the instrument’s range. Since its release in June 2013, the song has been featured by several national and international media outlets, including the New York Times, the Weather Channel, and National Public Radio, and its accompanying video has received more than 140,000 views from nearly every corner of the world. We are currently preparing a new composition for string quartet that will add a geographic dimension to describe both the pace and place of global warming. We believe the success of our initial sonification project is testament to the power of music to reach audiences who respond less enthusiastically to traditional methods used to communicate climate science. We also imagine this approach could be applied more broadly to allow students to create novel, visceral, and memorable encounters with other aspects of the geophysical sciences.
Guarding against false discovery in large-scale dendroclimatologyScott St. George
Measurements of tree-ring widths are the most widely-distributed and best replicated source of surrogate environmental information on the planet, and are one of the main archives used to estimate changes in regional and global climate during the past several centuries or millennia. Because the Northern Hemisphere ring-width network is now so large, it is more crucial than ever to ensure our understanding of tree-environment relations is not influenced by decisions to include or exclude certain records. It may be the case that a particular set of ring-width records are, for whatever reason, more tightly coupled to a particular climate factor than other records from the same region or species and, as a result, may be superior estimators of that factor’s past behavior. At the same time, it is known that selecting a small number of predictors from a large pool of potential candidates increases the likelihood of a Type I error. That effect may be particularly relevant to dendroclimatology because the total number of available ring-width records is often much larger than the number of records used to produce reconstructions of large-scale climate features. As an initial step, it would be helpful if paleoclimate reconstructions derived from tree rings described more explicitly the criteria used to select ring-width records as potential predictors and specified those records excluded by that screening. By comparing ring-width chronologies and their relations with climate against the standard set by thousands of records across the hemisphere, we should be better able to distinguish climate signals from proxy noise and produce more accurate reconstructions of climate during the late Holocene.
Large-scale dendrochronology and low-frequency climate variabilityScott St. George
Large-scale low-frequency variability has emerged as a priority for climate research, but instrumental observations are not long enough to characterize this behavior or gage its impacts on dependent geophysical or ecological systems. As the leading source of high-resolution paleoclimate information in the middle- and high-latitudes, tree rings are essential to understand low-frequency variability prior to the instrumental period. But even though tree rings possess several advantages as climate proxies, like other natural archives they also have their own particular impediments. In this lecture, Dr. St. George will describe the structure and characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere tree-ring width network, and outline how the fingerprint of decadal and multidecadal climate variability encoded within ancient trees varies across the hemisphere.
These visuals were prepared to support a string quartet performance and panel on climate change at Northwestern University in February 2106.
A well-designed graphic can help audiences to quickly understand the main message embedded within a complex set of climate data and to retain those ideas longer than they would have if they were conveyed by words alone. But the visual aids used regularly by climate scientists also have their limitations: they are most easily understood by people who are already fluent in technical illustrations; they're usually static and sometimes do not tell an obvious story; and for many, they don't elicit a strong emotional response.
Music, by contrast, is inherently narrative and is known to exert a powerful influence on human emotions. Because of this, sonification — the transformation of data into acoustic signals — may have considerable promise as a tool to enhance the communication of climate science.
Daniel Crawford and Scott St. George report on a collaboration between scientists and artists that uses music to transmit the evidence of climate change in an engaging and visceral way.
Five Things You Can Do Right Now To Make Your Research Presentations Just A L...Scott St. George
The ability to deliver effective and engaging oral presentations is a critical skill for all researchers. Unfortunately, despite the importance of clear communication, too many scientific presentations at conferences and workshops are confusing, abstract, and boring. In this short workshop, participants learn several key strategies and tips that will make their professional presentations just a little bit better than the rest. We discuss strategies for presentation planning, show how basic design principles can create more memorable slides, and point towards an outstanding set online tools and resources. Become a presentation superstar!
Scott St. George is Associate Professor in the Department of Geography, Environment and Society at the University of Minnesota and a Resident Fellow at UMN's Institute on the Environment. Prior to joining the faculty at Minnesota, he was a research scientist with the Geological Survey of Canada. Scott shares some of his experiences ‘doing presentations differently’ at conferences, outreach opportunities, and the classroom.
Strong variance at decadal and multidecadal timescales is a common feature of most tree-ring width records. But does this aspect of tree growth exhibit such long-memory behavior due to biology, climate, or some combination of the two factors? Understanding the origins of this behavior is crucial for efforts to evaluate the causes of decadal variability in the climate system.
Presentation at Johann Gutenburg University (Mainz) on February 16, 2017.
The Toba super-eruption: micro-scale traces of a global-scale climate event?Kim Cobb
Who doesn't love a super-eruption? In this presentation, I review the facts surrounding the Toba super-eruption that occurred 74,000 years ago, and present preliminary data about its impacts on a cave system in the rain forests of Borneo.
Kim Cobb's Borneo stalagmite talk - AGU 2015Kim Cobb
This talk presents the latest results from the Borneo stalagmite project that seeks to reconstruct Western tropical Pacific hydrology over the last half million years. We discuss our results in the context of climate forcing, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and climate modeling studies.
Reexamining future projections of Arctic climate linkagesZachary Labe
10 May 2024…
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Student/Postdoc Seminar (Presentation): Reexamining future projections of Arctic climate linkages, Princeton University, USA.
References...
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2018), Contributions of ice thickness to the atmospheric response from projected Arctic sea ice loss,
Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2018GL078158
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2019). The effect of QBO phase on the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in early winter, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2019GL083095
Labe, Z.M., Y. Peings, and G. Magnusdottir (2020). Warm Arctic, cold Siberia pattern: role of full Arctic amplification versus sea ice loss alone, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:10.1029/2020GL088583
Labe, Z.M., May 2020: The effects of Arctic sea-ice thickness loss and stratospheric variability on mid-latitude cold spells. University of California, Irvine. Doctoral Dissertation.
Peings, Y., Z.M. Labe, and G. Magnusdottir (2021), Are 100 ensemble members enough to capture the remote atmospheric response to +2°C Arctic sea ice loss? Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0613.1
A hard-hitting lecture by Ranyl Rhydwen at the Centre for Alternative Technology in Wales - really 3 lectures crammed into one - explaining how our climate works, what the current science is saying about climate change, and thoughts on what to do about it. A very good, and important talk to listen to. Recorded November 2009, a month before the COP-15 Climate Conference in Copenhagen. Please note this lecture is copyright Centre for Alternative Technology (http://www.cat.org.uk)
Data mining and_visualization_of_earth_history_datasets_to_find_cause_effect_...Abdullah Khan Zehady
To know the future of our earth, we need to look back to the past and collect evidence and examine the geologic and biologic events. My projects with http://timescalecreator.org is our approach to analyze the largest publicly available earth historical data to test different hypothesis, to understand better about the past of our loving pale blue. Interestingly lots of the events under the surface of the earth or under the ocean show same periodic cycles that we see in the planetary motions in the solar system and even in the galaxy. Cyclostratigraphy is a field where we try to explore data from the rock or marine records and find possible orbital forcing. Everything is connected after all and we are star dusts !! ;)
Every year, trees in temperate and boreal forests go through a cycle of dormancy and activity that produces a new layer of tracheids, fibers and other woody cells around their stem. The end result of this process - a tree ring - is one of the most obvious signs in nature documenting the passage of time and the character of that year’s weather. Measurements of tree-ring widths are the most widely-distributed and best replicated source of surrogate environmental information on the planet and are one of the main archives used to estimate changes in regional and global climate during the past several centuries or millennia.
In this lecture, I describe the structure and characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere tree-ring width network, and outline how these data are linked with key aspects of local climate and the global climate system. More generally, by describing the characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere tree-ring width network and the diversity of its relations with varying aspects of the global climate system, this presentation highlights the breadth and quality of environmental information that may be recovered from the width of annual growth layers in temperate and boreal trees.
Similar to Paleo-constraints on future tropical Pacific climate (20)
#GRExit Resources: Remove the GRE Requirement for Graduate AdmissionsKim Cobb
A compilation of resources that support the removal of the GRE requirement for graduate school applications. Resources include a list of peer-reviewed studies that question the GRE as a predictor of graduate school success, as well as lists of programs that have already removed the GRE as a requirement for graduate admission.
An overview of Georgia Tech's Carbon Reduction Challenge, wherein student teams join forces with public and private organizations to design and implement a carbon reduction project, saving energy costs for their partners. Cumulative emissions reductions total more than 40 million lbs of avoided CO2 emissions over the last ten years. Get in touch if you'd like to discuss replicating it at your institution! Information available at carbonreduction.gatech.edu
Middle school talk on "Corals and Climate Change"Kim Cobb
slides from a visit I had with 6th grade science class, covering climate change, impacts on corals (temperature extremes and ocean acidification), and including a segment on "What kids can do" to help solve climate change. Delivered Dec 2018.
Acid in Action - STEMPower workshop for kids ages 8-12Kim Cobb
Slides from a 3-part, 1.5hr STEM workshop on ocean acidification, compiled in March, 2018. Includes workshop materials and instructions. Please use freely. Thanks to the NSF for funding our research, which enabled this workshop development and implementation.
Description of the Carbon Reduction Challenge run at Georgia Tech by Kim Cobb. Outlines process, accomplishments, and example student projects. Steal it for your university and let me know!
Climate Change in Georgia - science and solutionsKim Cobb
A review of 2016 temperature and rainfall statistics for Georgia, in the context of ongoing climate change. And want some climate solutions? Lots of them here, from personal choices to community actions, to federal policy options. Featuring the "Carbon Reduction Challenge", wherein student teams compete to reduce carbon emissions by millions of pounds.
Climate change in 2016: an Eyewitness Account from the Tropical PacificKim Cobb
A public presentation I gave to the Atlanta Science Tavern at Manuel's Tavern on August 27, 2016. Featuring our research on corals and climate change, and some suggestions about ways to get involved in reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
A presentation I delivered at a Gunung Mulu National Park staff meeting on May 18, 2016. A handy overview of some of our lab's key findings from our extended research on Borneo caves.
Comparing Evolved Extractive Text Summary Scores of Bidirectional Encoder Rep...University of Maribor
Slides from:
11th International Conference on Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering (IcETRAN), Niš, 3-6 June 2024
Track: Artificial Intelligence
https://www.etran.rs/2024/en/home-english/
THE IMPORTANCE OF MARTIAN ATMOSPHERE SAMPLE RETURN.Sérgio Sacani
The return of a sample of near-surface atmosphere from Mars would facilitate answers to several first-order science questions surrounding the formation and evolution of the planet. One of the important aspects of terrestrial planet formation in general is the role that primary atmospheres played in influencing the chemistry and structure of the planets and their antecedents. Studies of the martian atmosphere can be used to investigate the role of a primary atmosphere in its history. Atmosphere samples would also inform our understanding of the near-surface chemistry of the planet, and ultimately the prospects for life. High-precision isotopic analyses of constituent gases are needed to address these questions, requiring that the analyses are made on returned samples rather than in situ.
Nutraceutical market, scope and growth: Herbal drug technologyLokesh Patil
As consumer awareness of health and wellness rises, the nutraceutical market—which includes goods like functional meals, drinks, and dietary supplements that provide health advantages beyond basic nutrition—is growing significantly. As healthcare expenses rise, the population ages, and people want natural and preventative health solutions more and more, this industry is increasing quickly. Further driving market expansion are product formulation innovations and the use of cutting-edge technology for customized nutrition. With its worldwide reach, the nutraceutical industry is expected to keep growing and provide significant chances for research and investment in a number of categories, including vitamins, minerals, probiotics, and herbal supplements.
A brief information about the SCOP protein database used in bioinformatics.
The Structural Classification of Proteins (SCOP) database is a comprehensive and authoritative resource for the structural and evolutionary relationships of proteins. It provides a detailed and curated classification of protein structures, grouping them into families, superfamilies, and folds based on their structural and sequence similarities.
Multi-source connectivity as the driver of solar wind variability in the heli...Sérgio Sacani
The ambient solar wind that flls the heliosphere originates from multiple
sources in the solar corona and is highly structured. It is often described
as high-speed, relatively homogeneous, plasma streams from coronal
holes and slow-speed, highly variable, streams whose source regions are
under debate. A key goal of ESA/NASA’s Solar Orbiter mission is to identify
solar wind sources and understand what drives the complexity seen in the
heliosphere. By combining magnetic feld modelling and spectroscopic
techniques with high-resolution observations and measurements, we show
that the solar wind variability detected in situ by Solar Orbiter in March
2022 is driven by spatio-temporal changes in the magnetic connectivity to
multiple sources in the solar atmosphere. The magnetic feld footpoints
connected to the spacecraft moved from the boundaries of a coronal hole
to one active region (12961) and then across to another region (12957). This
is refected in the in situ measurements, which show the transition from fast
to highly Alfvénic then to slow solar wind that is disrupted by the arrival of
a coronal mass ejection. Our results describe solar wind variability at 0.5 au
but are applicable to near-Earth observatories.
What is greenhouse gasses and how many gasses are there to affect the Earth.moosaasad1975
What are greenhouse gasses how they affect the earth and its environment what is the future of the environment and earth how the weather and the climate effects.
Richard's entangled aventures in wonderlandRichard Gill
Since the loophole-free Bell experiments of 2020 and the Nobel prizes in physics of 2022, critics of Bell's work have retreated to the fortress of super-determinism. Now, super-determinism is a derogatory word - it just means "determinism". Palmer, Hance and Hossenfelder argue that quantum mechanics and determinism are not incompatible, using a sophisticated mathematical construction based on a subtle thinning of allowed states and measurements in quantum mechanics, such that what is left appears to make Bell's argument fail, without altering the empirical predictions of quantum mechanics. I think however that it is a smoke screen, and the slogan "lost in math" comes to my mind. I will discuss some other recent disproofs of Bell's theorem using the language of causality based on causal graphs. Causal thinking is also central to law and justice. I will mention surprising connections to my work on serial killer nurse cases, in particular the Dutch case of Lucia de Berk and the current UK case of Lucy Letby.
Deep Behavioral Phenotyping in Systems Neuroscience for Functional Atlasing a...Ana Luísa Pinho
Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) provides means to characterize brain activations in response to behavior. However, cognitive neuroscience has been limited to group-level effects referring to the performance of specific tasks. To obtain the functional profile of elementary cognitive mechanisms, the combination of brain responses to many tasks is required. Yet, to date, both structural atlases and parcellation-based activations do not fully account for cognitive function and still present several limitations. Further, they do not adapt overall to individual characteristics. In this talk, I will give an account of deep-behavioral phenotyping strategies, namely data-driven methods in large task-fMRI datasets, to optimize functional brain-data collection and improve inference of effects-of-interest related to mental processes. Key to this approach is the employment of fast multi-functional paradigms rich on features that can be well parametrized and, consequently, facilitate the creation of psycho-physiological constructs to be modelled with imaging data. Particular emphasis will be given to music stimuli when studying high-order cognitive mechanisms, due to their ecological nature and quality to enable complex behavior compounded by discrete entities. I will also discuss how deep-behavioral phenotyping and individualized models applied to neuroimaging data can better account for the subject-specific organization of domain-general cognitive systems in the human brain. Finally, the accumulation of functional brain signatures brings the possibility to clarify relationships among tasks and create a univocal link between brain systems and mental functions through: (1) the development of ontologies proposing an organization of cognitive processes; and (2) brain-network taxonomies describing functional specialization. To this end, tools to improve commensurability in cognitive science are necessary, such as public repositories, ontology-based platforms and automated meta-analysis tools. I will thus discuss some brain-atlasing resources currently under development, and their applicability in cognitive as well as clinical neuroscience.
This presentation explores a brief idea about the structural and functional attributes of nucleotides, the structure and function of genetic materials along with the impact of UV rays and pH upon them.
Professional air quality monitoring systems provide immediate, on-site data for analysis, compliance, and decision-making.
Monitor common gases, weather parameters, particulates.
6. ERSSTv4
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
NINO3.4SST(°
C)
Is ENSO changing?
7. ERSSTv4
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Year
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
NINO3.4SST(°
C)
Is ENSO changing?
8. Option 1
Wait 100+ years until we have enough instrumental data
(e.g. Stevenson et al., 2012)
Is ENSO changing?
9. Option 1
Wait 100+ years until we have enough instrumental data
(e.g. Stevenson et al., 2012)
Option 2
Use paleo-ENSO records to establish quantitative estimates of
pre-industrial ENSO variability, compare to recent ENSO variability
Is ENSO changing?
10. last 100+ yrs
last 7000 yrs
U/Th dated
drilled via SCUBA
storm/tsunami deposits
scattered on beaches
across the tropics
14. 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-5.5
-5
-4.5
-4
22
24
26
28
30
Nurhati09 Evans99 x126 x123 Minicore1 Minicore2 OISSTv2
SST(ºC)
δ18O(‰)
coral oxygen isotopes vs. SST
grey=OISST
colors=coral δ18O
Evans et al., 1999
Nurhati et al., 2009
Grothe et al., in prep
O’Connor et al., in prep
15. 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
-5.5
-5
-4.5
-4
22
24
26
28
30
Nurhati09 Evans99 x126 x123 Minicore1 Minicore2 OISSTv2
SST(ºC)
δ18O(‰)
coral oxygen isotopes vs. SST
grey=OISST
colors=coral δ18O
Evans et al., 1999
Nurhati et al., 2009
Grothe et al., in prep
O’Connor et al., in prepCoral δ18O records are
interchangeable with SST.
Replication yields better reconstruction.
16. 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
−5.5
−5
−4.5
−4
Year CE
Xmas coral d18O last millennium
monthly coral δ18O records
through the last millennium
2015/2016 El Niño
δ18O(‰)
17. 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
−5.5
−5
−4.5
−4
Year CE
Xmas coral d18O last millennium
monthly coral δ18O records
through the last millennium
2015/2016 El Niño
δ18O(‰)
Has ENSO variance changed?
19. Virtually certain* that observed distribution of
interannual coral δ18O variance does not
reflect a stationary process.
* Significant of pre-industrial to modern shift in coral interannual variance is somewhat sensitive to the choice of null, and different
testing periods will give you slightly different significance levels. Full investigation of significance will be reported in Grothe et al., in
prep
20. Virtually certain* that observed distribution of
interannual coral δ18O variance does not
reflect a stationary process.
In and of itself, this does not prove that ENSO
has intensified with anthropogenic climate change.
* Significant of pre-industrial to modern shift in coral interannual variance is somewhat sensitive to the choice of null, and different
testing periods will give you slightly different significance levels. Full investigation of significance will be reported in Grothe et al., in
prep
21. Virtually certain* that observed distribution of
interannual coral δ18O variance does not
reflect a stationary process.
In and of itself, this does not prove that ENSO
has intensified with anthropogenic climate change.
However…
* Significant of pre-industrial to modern shift in coral interannual variance is somewhat sensitive to the choice of null, and different
testing periods will give you slightly different significance levels. Full investigation of significance will be reported in Grothe et al., in
prep
23. All paleo-ENSO records rely (to
varying extents) on hydrological
response to ENSO SST anomalies.
So now we have a new question:
Is ENSO SST variance already increasing?
or
Are we already seeing
“more rainfall bang for our SST anomaly buck”
that models project for the 21st century?
(Power et al., 2013; Cai et al., 2014)
25. Frontiers and opportunities
paleo-data assimilation
nal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1002/2016JD024751
Figure 1. Conceptual framework for the Last Millennium Reanalysis, outlining our paleoassimilation approach. Starting
from the prior (a collection of simulated climate states) from which random draws are pulled, the states are mapped
Hakim et al.,
JGR-Atm, 2016
26. Past trips:
Aug 2014
March 2015
July 2015
Nov 2015
April 2016
Team:
Kim Cobb (Georgia Tech, paleoclimate)
Julia Baum (U. Victoria, ecologist)
Ruth Gates (UH, coral ecologist)
Mark Merrifield (UH, phys. oceanography)
Brian Powell (UH, phys. oceanography)
Samantha Stevenson (NOAA, climate
scientist, ocean modeler)
Planned trips:
Nov 2016
April 2017
Research Goals:
data assimilation of coral δ18O data
(iso-ROMS) à reanalysis products
integrated climate and ecological impact
study over 2015/16 El Niño and beyond
Frontiers and opportunities
28. Summary
The paleoclimate community needs CLIVAR
to unlock the vast potential of their data.
CLIVAR needs the paleoclimate community
to address some of the most pressing
questions concerning the impacts of
anthropogenic climate change.
29. Summary
The paleoclimate community needs CLIVAR
to unlock the vast potential of their data.
CLIVAR needs the paleoclimate community
to address some of the most pressing
questions concerning the impacts of
anthropogenic climate change.
Rapid progress is possible but requires
interdisciplinary teams of scientists
working towards shared goals.