A 3D biophysical model was used to simulate the impact of quagga mussels on the spring phytoplankton bloom in Lake Michigan under different climate scenarios. The model results showed that quagga mussels had a greater suppressive effect on chlorophyll levels during a warm spring compared to a cool spring. Satellite data from 1994-2010 also demonstrated that chlorophyll depletion in Lake Michigan correlated spatially with areas of high quagga mussel filter feeding intensity. The same biophysical model was able to separate the effects of nutrient loads and dreissenid mussels on 2010 Lake Michigan chlorophyll levels when validated with satellite data.

1. 1
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI
Addressing
Great LakesIssuesWith
Biophysical M odels
M ark Rowe
Assistant Research Scientist
SNRE CILER
University of M ichigan

2. 2
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI
M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, J. Wang, H.A. Vanderploeg. 2015. J. Great Lakes Research, 41(S3):49-65
Warm and cool climate
meteorological scenarios
Measured quagga
mussel clearance rates
3-D hydrodynamic
model (FVCOM)
vertical mixing
1-D phytoplankton -
quagga mussel model
Cool spring Warm spring
MusselsNomussels
Chlorophyll
Quagga musselshave greater impact on Lake M ichigan
spring bloom under warm spring climate scenario

3. 3
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI
1994-95 2000 2005 2010
Aprilremote-sensing
Chlorophyll
Dreissenidfilterfeeding
intensity
M.D. Rowe, D.R. Obenour, T.F. Nalepa, H.A. Vanderploeg, F. Yousef, W.C. Kerfoot. 2015. Freshwater Biology, 60(11): 2270-85
Chlorophyll depletion in Lake M ichigan isspatially
associated with quagga mussel filter feeding intensity

4. 4
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI
Separating the effects of quagga mussels and nutrient
loads on Lake Michigan chlorophyll
April 2010 Lake Michigan Chlorophyll concentration, μg/L
Satellite | 3D Biophysical model
Effect of phosphorus loads
Effect of dreissenid mussels

5. 5
NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION
GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI
Improved Lake Erie short term HAB forecast
Improved model simulates vertical
distribution of buoyant
cyanobacteria
Nowcast Five-day forecast
M.D. Rowe, E.J. Anderson, T. T. Wynne, R. P. Stumpf, D. L. Fanslow, K.
Kijanka, H. A. Vanderploeg, T. W. Davis. J. Geophysical Research, in prep
Time, days
Depth,m