How does Optimism impact on Entrepreneurs’ Overconfidence?CSCJournals
Optimism and overconfidence are well documented cognitive biases in the entrepreneurship literature (see Shepherd et al., 2015). Although these sentiments are typically thought to be almost overlapped, empirical studies make evidence of their different construct (see Trevelyan, 2008, 2011). In the paper at hand we investigate the descriptive and normative motivations inducing misconfidence biases to arise. First, we introduce the definition of optimism as underestimation of the task difficulty to meet a strategic Key Performance Indicator (KPI). Second, we define overconfidence as the tendency to overestimate the probability to achieve an uncertain task. To calculate this probability we set up a prescriptive benchmarking-based model. Third, we spotlight situations in enterprise risk management (ERM) where misconfidence biases in judgment emerge. Complementing Bordley et al. (2015) and Tibiletti and Uberti (2015) results, we show that overconfidence arises in presence of two extreme circumstances: (1) underestimation of task difficulty coupled with extremely poor entrepreneurial projects, and (2) overestimation of task difficulty coupled with extremely good entrepreneurial projects. Our theoretical findings match with accounted biased behaviors recognized among entrepreneurs known as the escalation and de-escalation of commitment effect biases. The study is based on the normative foundation for overconfidence set up by Bordley et al. (2015) and casts light on which circumstances that occurs. Our results have also practical implications. In fact, it is important for entrepreneurs be aware of situations where self-confidence is normatively biased.
Project VES started crowdfunding campaign.
STEM stories from Hispanic of Venezuelan origin: Learn how the skilled immigration to and from Venezuela contributed to science and technology and became successful worldwide.
How does Optimism impact on Entrepreneurs’ Overconfidence?CSCJournals
Optimism and overconfidence are well documented cognitive biases in the entrepreneurship literature (see Shepherd et al., 2015). Although these sentiments are typically thought to be almost overlapped, empirical studies make evidence of their different construct (see Trevelyan, 2008, 2011). In the paper at hand we investigate the descriptive and normative motivations inducing misconfidence biases to arise. First, we introduce the definition of optimism as underestimation of the task difficulty to meet a strategic Key Performance Indicator (KPI). Second, we define overconfidence as the tendency to overestimate the probability to achieve an uncertain task. To calculate this probability we set up a prescriptive benchmarking-based model. Third, we spotlight situations in enterprise risk management (ERM) where misconfidence biases in judgment emerge. Complementing Bordley et al. (2015) and Tibiletti and Uberti (2015) results, we show that overconfidence arises in presence of two extreme circumstances: (1) underestimation of task difficulty coupled with extremely poor entrepreneurial projects, and (2) overestimation of task difficulty coupled with extremely good entrepreneurial projects. Our theoretical findings match with accounted biased behaviors recognized among entrepreneurs known as the escalation and de-escalation of commitment effect biases. The study is based on the normative foundation for overconfidence set up by Bordley et al. (2015) and casts light on which circumstances that occurs. Our results have also practical implications. In fact, it is important for entrepreneurs be aware of situations where self-confidence is normatively biased.
Project VES started crowdfunding campaign.
STEM stories from Hispanic of Venezuelan origin: Learn how the skilled immigration to and from Venezuela contributed to science and technology and became successful worldwide.
Research was conducted in Spanish to US
Hispanic mobile users (smartphone and tablet)
navigating Adsmovil’s network of mobile sites
& apps (all in Spanish)
Paris Agreement and the NAP process Global Capacity Development ExternalEvents
http://unfccc.int/adaptation/workstreams/national_adaptation_plans/items/6057.php
The slides give an overview of adaptation and the implementation of National Adaptation Plans. These include a look at the adaptation milestones, recent developments at COP 21, the process of formulating a NAP, Guidelines and support for NAPs.
The presentation was made at the Integrating Agriculture in National Adaptation Plans Workshop from the 5-7 April 2016, Rome, Italy.
Research was conducted in Spanish to US
Hispanic mobile users (smartphone and tablet)
navigating Adsmovil’s network of mobile sites
& apps (all in Spanish)
Paris Agreement and the NAP process Global Capacity Development ExternalEvents
http://unfccc.int/adaptation/workstreams/national_adaptation_plans/items/6057.php
The slides give an overview of adaptation and the implementation of National Adaptation Plans. These include a look at the adaptation milestones, recent developments at COP 21, the process of formulating a NAP, Guidelines and support for NAPs.
The presentation was made at the Integrating Agriculture in National Adaptation Plans Workshop from the 5-7 April 2016, Rome, Italy.
2. УХОД ЗА КОЖЕЙ
Регулярное обмывание водой со специальными моющими средствами.
Регулярная смена белья.
Защита открытых участков от мелких травм.
Защита от неблагоприятных воздействий окружающей среды.
Правильное питание.
3. Уход за волосами
СОДЕРДАНИЕ В ЧИСТОТЕ
-соблюдение режима мытья волос с о
специальными моющими
средствами
-регулярная стрижка волос
ЗАЩИТА
-не ходить без головного убора в
морозную и жаркую погоду
УКРЕПЛЕНИЕ ВОЛОС
-правильное питание
-регулярное расчесывание
Своевременная профилактика и
лечение
-расческа должна быть
индивидуальной
-при заболевании обратиться к
врачу
4. УХОД ЗА ЗУБАМИ И ПОЛОСТЬЮ РТА
СОДЕРЖАНИЕ В ЧИСТОТЕ
-чистить зубы 2 раза в сутки
-полоскать полость рта после
каждого приёма пищи
ЗАЩИТА
-беречь от механических
повреждений во время
спортивных игр
УКРЕПЛЕНИЕ
-употреблять в пищу продукты
укрепляющие зубы и дёсны
Современная профилактика и
лечение
-использовать только
индивидуальную щётку,
посещать 2 раза в год
стоматолога
5. Правила ухода за полостью рта
Чистите зубы не только справа налево, но и сверху вниз и
снизу вверх, с наружной стороны и с внутренней.
Щётку после использование тщательно промойте и
просушите.
Никогда не чистите зубы чужой щёткой.
Полощите рот тёплой водой после еды.
Два раза в год проверяйте состояние зубов у врача.
6. ПРАВИЛА ЛИЧНОЙ ГИГИЕНЫ
Мыть руки перед едой, после посещения туалета, после
всякого загрязнения.
Стричь коротко ногти на руках и ногах.
Мыть на ночь ноги и вытирать их специальным
полотенцем.
Мыться до пояса, мыть лицо, уши и шею.
Содержать в порядке волосы.
Чистить уши регулярно.
7. ПРАВИЛА ЛИЧНОЙ ГИГИЕНЫ
Мыть руки перед едой, после посещения туалета, после
всякого загрязнения.
Стричь коротко ногти на руках и ногах.
Мыть на ночь ноги и вытирать их специальным
полотенцем.
Мыться до пояса, мыть лицо, уши и шею.
Содержать в порядке волосы.
Чистить уши регулярно.