It didn’t go the way the pundits predicted. As the second quarter came to a close, people in the UK voted to exit (Brexit) the European Union by a narrow margin. Despite the narrow differences in the polls, global markets and the mainstream press indicated that the opposite outcome would prevail in the days leading up to the vote.
Investors hate uncertainty. The immediate reaction to the Brexit vote was severe and negative. However, stocks recovered to a great extent over the following week.
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
And The Band Played On…
“When democratic governments create economic calamity, free markets get the blame.”-Jack Kemp
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”- Mark Twain
Thus far, the calamities predicted by the pundits that would result from the Brexit vote to leave the European Union have not been as severe as anticipated. Perhaps this is due to the building geopolitical and economic stresses that have diverted the focus from Brexit to other issues. Furthermore, the impact of Brexit will likely take some time to discern as the trade, migration, political and other ramifications evolve over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, governments globally continue in their efforts to stimulate economic growth with what appears to be diminishing results.
Since the inauguration on January 20, we have all been inundated by media reports on the first one hundred days of the Trump administration. While stock market participants entered the year with apparently high expectations, towards the end of this 90 day quarter there has been wavering of sentiment as the realization that not all of Trump’s campaign promises are likely to be delivered.
Sprung Investment Management is an independent investment management firm that serves high net worth private clients. It focuses on creating customized portfolios to achieve clients' long-term investment goals through principled analysis and integrity. The firm takes a value-driven approach to selecting undervalued securities with a margin of safety for preserving capital and delivering income and growth. It has a track record of low volatility returns since 2005 and performance numbers are available upon request.
The euphoria of the past year carried into the first quarter of 2014 only to be rudely interrupted by geopolitical events as Russia took over the Crimea. The hue and outcry was heard around the world and global markets were shaken by this event.
It has been ten years since the great financial crisis. In the US, the S&P 500 peaked on October 9, 2007. The Canadian market continued its upward trajectory into the following year peaking in June as energy stocks were buoyed by high oil prices. While the bull market leading up to 2008 had duration of about five years, the current bull market has gone on for ten years without any significant setback.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
It has been seven years since the last financial crisis. In that seven-year period, the total global debt has increased by even more than it did in the seven years previous (2000-2007). From the end of 2007 through to the end of the first half of last year, total global debt increased by 40%, or $US 57 TRILLION! This massive increase in debt has been a consequence of easy money in a low interest rate environment aided and abetted by programs of quantitative easing (the provision of liquidity by central banks) in order to promote economic growth and investment.
The first quarter managed to record some positive results overall, despite severe declines in some sectors.
As the third quarter drew to a close, Canada had yet to come to terms with the US and Mexico on a renewed trade agreement. Investors woke up on Monday, October 1, 2018 to news that a deal had in fact been cobbled together at the last minute and that all was well in the world.
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
And The Band Played On…
“When democratic governments create economic calamity, free markets get the blame.”-Jack Kemp
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”- Mark Twain
Thus far, the calamities predicted by the pundits that would result from the Brexit vote to leave the European Union have not been as severe as anticipated. Perhaps this is due to the building geopolitical and economic stresses that have diverted the focus from Brexit to other issues. Furthermore, the impact of Brexit will likely take some time to discern as the trade, migration, political and other ramifications evolve over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, governments globally continue in their efforts to stimulate economic growth with what appears to be diminishing results.
Since the inauguration on January 20, we have all been inundated by media reports on the first one hundred days of the Trump administration. While stock market participants entered the year with apparently high expectations, towards the end of this 90 day quarter there has been wavering of sentiment as the realization that not all of Trump’s campaign promises are likely to be delivered.
Sprung Investment Management is an independent investment management firm that serves high net worth private clients. It focuses on creating customized portfolios to achieve clients' long-term investment goals through principled analysis and integrity. The firm takes a value-driven approach to selecting undervalued securities with a margin of safety for preserving capital and delivering income and growth. It has a track record of low volatility returns since 2005 and performance numbers are available upon request.
The euphoria of the past year carried into the first quarter of 2014 only to be rudely interrupted by geopolitical events as Russia took over the Crimea. The hue and outcry was heard around the world and global markets were shaken by this event.
It has been ten years since the great financial crisis. In the US, the S&P 500 peaked on October 9, 2007. The Canadian market continued its upward trajectory into the following year peaking in June as energy stocks were buoyed by high oil prices. While the bull market leading up to 2008 had duration of about five years, the current bull market has gone on for ten years without any significant setback.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
It has been seven years since the last financial crisis. In that seven-year period, the total global debt has increased by even more than it did in the seven years previous (2000-2007). From the end of 2007 through to the end of the first half of last year, total global debt increased by 40%, or $US 57 TRILLION! This massive increase in debt has been a consequence of easy money in a low interest rate environment aided and abetted by programs of quantitative easing (the provision of liquidity by central banks) in order to promote economic growth and investment.
The first quarter managed to record some positive results overall, despite severe declines in some sectors.
As the third quarter drew to a close, Canada had yet to come to terms with the US and Mexico on a renewed trade agreement. Investors woke up on Monday, October 1, 2018 to news that a deal had in fact been cobbled together at the last minute and that all was well in the world.
This document provides a quarterly report from Sprung Investment Management. It summarizes the firm's investment approach, performance in the fourth quarter of 2014, and outlook. Specifically:
- The firm focuses on high net worth private clients and has over 120 years of combined investment experience among its team.
- Markets were volatile in Q4 2014 due to geopolitical events and slowing global growth. The US stood out as an economic refuge.
- Looking ahead, low oil prices may impact markets further while international trade negotiations could boost growth. Geopolitical risks remain high.
- Sprung takes a value-driven, long-term approach to investing and strives for downside protection and low volatility
A euphoric start to 2019!
After a dismal end to last year, global stock markets rebounded in the first quarter making up much of the ground lost in the final quarter of 2018. The underpinnings of this sudden reversal in sentiment are less clear. There appears to be a disconnect between the direction of the stock markets and the direction of the global economies. Economists continue to moderate the outlook for future economic growth. The issues that vexed the markets in 2018 remain and in many cases, those issues have deteriorated even further.
Despite a strong start in January, global stock markets became unnerved in the latter part of the first quarter of 2018. Rising trade tensions contributed to the unease investors exhibited as the US took a stronger stance on bilateral trade negotiations through the enactment of targeted tariffs.
Economies are the cumulative reflection of the myriad of transactions taking place every day. In order for a transaction to take place, there must be a buyer and a seller. Both parties to the transaction believe that they are receiving adequate compensation, no matter on which side of the trade they reside. In financial markets, buyers and sellers are expressing differing expectations for the object being sold. Markets have continued to rise for a long period of time, indicative of there being more optimism that economic conditions will continue to improve. The question is: Will these expectations continue to be validated or will those positive expectations be overwhelmed by economic and geopolitical factors that have underpinned the rising markets to date? Are we at the dawn of a new era or the dusk of an era that has run its course?
Geopolitical events continued to make headlines this quarter but did little to quell investors’ enthusiasm as markets continued to advance. Russia and the Ukraine managed to agree to a temporary ceasefire just as sectarian violence in Iraq exploded driving oil prices higher. China garnered attention with its hegemonic designs on the South China Sea much to the displeasure of Japan and Vietnam as well as pushing back on any pro-democracy desires in Hong Kong. In addition, Argentina once again threatens to default on its debt after losing a Supreme Court decision to creditors in the US.
The document summarizes the Q3 update to the 2015 investment outlook from Segal Rogerscasey Canada. It discusses the reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates given mixed signals in the US economy. China's economic slowdown is negatively impacting other Asian and commodity-producing economies. The European economy continues slow growth despite quantitative easing efforts. Overall, the global economic environment remains uncertain.
The quarterly market review summarizes market performance in the first quarter of 2013. Global markets posted modest gains, with U.S. stocks outperforming international markets. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time highs. Ten-year returns remain positive across most asset classes and geographic regions, reinforcing the benefits of diversification and long-term investing.
Are the good times here to stay or are we hearing the Sirens’ call? Since 2008, investors have been on an odyssey. Gradually, stock markets have managed to recover from the disastrous carnage precipitated by the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. It has been an uneven path back to current market levels as there have been many occasions when it appeared that the fragile recovery would be stymied by bickering politicians, slowing emerging economies, deflationary pressures, regulatory zeal, civil unrest in the Middle East, over spent consumers, etc
Sprung Investment Management is an independent investment management firm serving high net worth individuals. It has over 120 years of combined investment experience among its principals. In the third quarter of 2013, markets were volatile due to political uncertainty in the US and slowing growth in emerging markets. Sprung believes this environment creates opportunities for value investors.
The document discusses investment outlooks for 2016. Key points include:
- Continued low global growth is expected, along with subdued inflation and accommodative monetary policy.
- Risks remain skewed downward, and markets could become volatile on negative news.
- In equities, favor areas with economic tailwinds like the Eurozone, Japan, and US financial and consumer sectors.
- In fixed income, favor a balanced approach including credit sensitive sectors like high yield bonds and senior loans.
The document discusses how economic tailwinds that supported markets in 2009 may transition to headwinds in the second half of 2010. It notes that extraordinary global policy efforts that created economic growth tailwinds in 2009 will likely fade or possibly reverse, contributing to a potential economic slowdown and challenging market conditions later in the year. It also provides recommendations for portfolio positioning in light of this expected shift from tailwinds to headwinds.
Brian Nash presented on global markets and the economic outlook. Key points include:
- Global growth was slow to start 2016 but recovered, supported by a steady US economy.
- Inflation is expected to rise gradually in many countries due to base effects from low commodity prices.
- China's economy is slowing but more stimulus measures are expected to support stabilization.
- US economic growth remains mixed with mid- and late-cycle dynamics, supporting stocks overall.
- Emerging markets rebounded in Q1 after weakness, while a weaker dollar provided a boost to returns.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Included in this Invast Insights report, Turkey's economic condition was highlighted along with potential trading opportunities if the Turkish Lira collapses completely. Despite the economic issues of other countries, our Wealth Creation portfolio continued to hold up well and the Drawdown Phase portfolio traded above target.
Meanwhile, a case study for assessing other stocks is also included in this report. The case study - Forge Group (FGE): Example Of Fragility - showed that it is better to buy a robust business with little earnings than buying a business which appears to be making strong earnings but with poor composition.
Through all the market traumas of recent years, the crises in Greece, slowdown scares in China, US political gridlock, the collapse in oil prices, the wars and the migrant flows, investors prepared to weather short-term volatility have seen handsome returns on developed-economy equities since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, with EUR and USD investors seeing only one modestly down year in 2011. There has also been good performance from high yield and investment grade corporate bonds, the laggards (since 2011) being investments connected to commodities and emerging markets.
Our analysis, set out in this Outlook, suggests that 2016 may deliver a fairly similar pattern. Temporary traumas could emanate from Federal Reserve tightening, reduced bond liquidity, renewed growth scares in China or geopolitics, but behind these is an underlying picture of ongoing expansion. The global economy is neither pushed up against capacity limits nor facing severe slack (except for commodities and energy), banking systems are healthy and debt levels seem more amber than red. Rapid growth seems unlikely, given aging populations (bar Africa and India) and sharing economy technologies that do not generate much Gross Domestic Product, but sensibly-priced assets do not need a booming economy to generate reasonable returns. At the time of writing (in late 2015), high yield and investment grade credits have spreads just above their quarter-century averages, giving them scope to weather gradual Fed tightening. Developed equities have valuations somewhat above historic norms on a price-earnings basis, but not on a price-book basis, and operational leverage (especially in the Eurozone) and consolidating oil prices should allow earnings growth to move from last year's negatives into the mid- to high-single digits. In short, we think developed equities and credits are well placed for another year of reasonable returns, with the dollar likely to be strong again as the Fed leads the monetary cycle. As for emerging markets, and the commodities on which many depend, a convincing general recovery looks some time away, but there is scope for some to move ahead of the pack, as discussed in a special article.
Of course there can always be risks that are not visible and Fed tightening has a habit of teasing these out, although usually not within its first year. But, equally, there could be upside surprises, if the USA finally moves toward solutions on taxing repatriated corporate cash and infrastructure spending or, more simply, the signals of rising confidence already visible in US and European consumer surveys translate into faster spending. We trust our readers will find the Investment Outlook 2016 to be of considerable interest for the coming year.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
With investor sentiment now showing signs of improvement after a challenging period in emerging markets, our sixth edition of the CSRI Emerging Consumer Survey provides investors timely insights with which to revisit the theme of a fast developing consumer culture shaped by technological innovation. The countries that top our ECS Scorecard are India, China and Saudi Arabia with a key demographic accent on the role of the youthful consumer.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1YnhtyR
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1RQb79r
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
The document summarizes recent negative news headlines about weak global financial markets and slowing economies. While the headlines seem dire, the advisor argues they are designed primarily to generate readership rather than provide an accurate portrayal of the long-term economic situation. The advisor believes their role is to look beneath headlines and discern the real issues to help clients stay on track with their goals despite short-term market volatility.
Elections in France, Greece, and Germany could impact markets as voters chose candidates favoring changes over austerity. French and Greek voters rejected incumbent parties, bringing political uncertainty. This document discusses the economic issues facing Europe, including recession, high unemployment, and low business confidence. Traders who actively communicated with their network were more successful at "connecting the dots" of information and making profitable trades.
This document provides a quarterly report from Sprung Investment Management. It summarizes the firm's investment approach, performance in the fourth quarter of 2014, and outlook. Specifically:
- The firm focuses on high net worth private clients and has over 120 years of combined investment experience among its team.
- Markets were volatile in Q4 2014 due to geopolitical events and slowing global growth. The US stood out as an economic refuge.
- Looking ahead, low oil prices may impact markets further while international trade negotiations could boost growth. Geopolitical risks remain high.
- Sprung takes a value-driven, long-term approach to investing and strives for downside protection and low volatility
A euphoric start to 2019!
After a dismal end to last year, global stock markets rebounded in the first quarter making up much of the ground lost in the final quarter of 2018. The underpinnings of this sudden reversal in sentiment are less clear. There appears to be a disconnect between the direction of the stock markets and the direction of the global economies. Economists continue to moderate the outlook for future economic growth. The issues that vexed the markets in 2018 remain and in many cases, those issues have deteriorated even further.
Despite a strong start in January, global stock markets became unnerved in the latter part of the first quarter of 2018. Rising trade tensions contributed to the unease investors exhibited as the US took a stronger stance on bilateral trade negotiations through the enactment of targeted tariffs.
Economies are the cumulative reflection of the myriad of transactions taking place every day. In order for a transaction to take place, there must be a buyer and a seller. Both parties to the transaction believe that they are receiving adequate compensation, no matter on which side of the trade they reside. In financial markets, buyers and sellers are expressing differing expectations for the object being sold. Markets have continued to rise for a long period of time, indicative of there being more optimism that economic conditions will continue to improve. The question is: Will these expectations continue to be validated or will those positive expectations be overwhelmed by economic and geopolitical factors that have underpinned the rising markets to date? Are we at the dawn of a new era or the dusk of an era that has run its course?
Geopolitical events continued to make headlines this quarter but did little to quell investors’ enthusiasm as markets continued to advance. Russia and the Ukraine managed to agree to a temporary ceasefire just as sectarian violence in Iraq exploded driving oil prices higher. China garnered attention with its hegemonic designs on the South China Sea much to the displeasure of Japan and Vietnam as well as pushing back on any pro-democracy desires in Hong Kong. In addition, Argentina once again threatens to default on its debt after losing a Supreme Court decision to creditors in the US.
The document summarizes the Q3 update to the 2015 investment outlook from Segal Rogerscasey Canada. It discusses the reluctance of the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates given mixed signals in the US economy. China's economic slowdown is negatively impacting other Asian and commodity-producing economies. The European economy continues slow growth despite quantitative easing efforts. Overall, the global economic environment remains uncertain.
The quarterly market review summarizes market performance in the first quarter of 2013. Global markets posted modest gains, with U.S. stocks outperforming international markets. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time highs. Ten-year returns remain positive across most asset classes and geographic regions, reinforcing the benefits of diversification and long-term investing.
Are the good times here to stay or are we hearing the Sirens’ call? Since 2008, investors have been on an odyssey. Gradually, stock markets have managed to recover from the disastrous carnage precipitated by the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. It has been an uneven path back to current market levels as there have been many occasions when it appeared that the fragile recovery would be stymied by bickering politicians, slowing emerging economies, deflationary pressures, regulatory zeal, civil unrest in the Middle East, over spent consumers, etc
Sprung Investment Management is an independent investment management firm serving high net worth individuals. It has over 120 years of combined investment experience among its principals. In the third quarter of 2013, markets were volatile due to political uncertainty in the US and slowing growth in emerging markets. Sprung believes this environment creates opportunities for value investors.
The document discusses investment outlooks for 2016. Key points include:
- Continued low global growth is expected, along with subdued inflation and accommodative monetary policy.
- Risks remain skewed downward, and markets could become volatile on negative news.
- In equities, favor areas with economic tailwinds like the Eurozone, Japan, and US financial and consumer sectors.
- In fixed income, favor a balanced approach including credit sensitive sectors like high yield bonds and senior loans.
The document discusses how economic tailwinds that supported markets in 2009 may transition to headwinds in the second half of 2010. It notes that extraordinary global policy efforts that created economic growth tailwinds in 2009 will likely fade or possibly reverse, contributing to a potential economic slowdown and challenging market conditions later in the year. It also provides recommendations for portfolio positioning in light of this expected shift from tailwinds to headwinds.
Brian Nash presented on global markets and the economic outlook. Key points include:
- Global growth was slow to start 2016 but recovered, supported by a steady US economy.
- Inflation is expected to rise gradually in many countries due to base effects from low commodity prices.
- China's economy is slowing but more stimulus measures are expected to support stabilization.
- US economic growth remains mixed with mid- and late-cycle dynamics, supporting stocks overall.
- Emerging markets rebounded in Q1 after weakness, while a weaker dollar provided a boost to returns.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Included in this Invast Insights report, Turkey's economic condition was highlighted along with potential trading opportunities if the Turkish Lira collapses completely. Despite the economic issues of other countries, our Wealth Creation portfolio continued to hold up well and the Drawdown Phase portfolio traded above target.
Meanwhile, a case study for assessing other stocks is also included in this report. The case study - Forge Group (FGE): Example Of Fragility - showed that it is better to buy a robust business with little earnings than buying a business which appears to be making strong earnings but with poor composition.
Through all the market traumas of recent years, the crises in Greece, slowdown scares in China, US political gridlock, the collapse in oil prices, the wars and the migrant flows, investors prepared to weather short-term volatility have seen handsome returns on developed-economy equities since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, with EUR and USD investors seeing only one modestly down year in 2011. There has also been good performance from high yield and investment grade corporate bonds, the laggards (since 2011) being investments connected to commodities and emerging markets.
Our analysis, set out in this Outlook, suggests that 2016 may deliver a fairly similar pattern. Temporary traumas could emanate from Federal Reserve tightening, reduced bond liquidity, renewed growth scares in China or geopolitics, but behind these is an underlying picture of ongoing expansion. The global economy is neither pushed up against capacity limits nor facing severe slack (except for commodities and energy), banking systems are healthy and debt levels seem more amber than red. Rapid growth seems unlikely, given aging populations (bar Africa and India) and sharing economy technologies that do not generate much Gross Domestic Product, but sensibly-priced assets do not need a booming economy to generate reasonable returns. At the time of writing (in late 2015), high yield and investment grade credits have spreads just above their quarter-century averages, giving them scope to weather gradual Fed tightening. Developed equities have valuations somewhat above historic norms on a price-earnings basis, but not on a price-book basis, and operational leverage (especially in the Eurozone) and consolidating oil prices should allow earnings growth to move from last year's negatives into the mid- to high-single digits. In short, we think developed equities and credits are well placed for another year of reasonable returns, with the dollar likely to be strong again as the Fed leads the monetary cycle. As for emerging markets, and the commodities on which many depend, a convincing general recovery looks some time away, but there is scope for some to move ahead of the pack, as discussed in a special article.
Of course there can always be risks that are not visible and Fed tightening has a habit of teasing these out, although usually not within its first year. But, equally, there could be upside surprises, if the USA finally moves toward solutions on taxing repatriated corporate cash and infrastructure spending or, more simply, the signals of rising confidence already visible in US and European consumer surveys translate into faster spending. We trust our readers will find the Investment Outlook 2016 to be of considerable interest for the coming year.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2016 Credit Suisse
Against the backdrop of the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in almost a decade, the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s Global Investment Returns Yearbook examines similar episodes since 1900 and derives potential implications for future economic and financial market developments.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1QSo6qn
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1T9sTbe
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
With investor sentiment now showing signs of improvement after a challenging period in emerging markets, our sixth edition of the CSRI Emerging Consumer Survey provides investors timely insights with which to revisit the theme of a fast developing consumer culture shaped by technological innovation. The countries that top our ECS Scorecard are India, China and Saudi Arabia with a key demographic accent on the role of the youthful consumer.
- Download the full report: http://bit.ly/1YnhtyR
- Order hard copy: http://bit.ly/1RQb79r
- Visit the website: bit.ly/18Cxa0p
2017 Global Economic Outlook by Dun & BradstreetDun & Bradstreet
Learn from Dun & Bradstreet’s economists as they share our 2017 global economic outlook. Discover the top five economic game changers, take a look at the short-term economic outlook and view deep-dive analyses on featured countries.
The document summarizes recent negative news headlines about weak global financial markets and slowing economies. While the headlines seem dire, the advisor argues they are designed primarily to generate readership rather than provide an accurate portrayal of the long-term economic situation. The advisor believes their role is to look beneath headlines and discern the real issues to help clients stay on track with their goals despite short-term market volatility.
Elections in France, Greece, and Germany could impact markets as voters chose candidates favoring changes over austerity. French and Greek voters rejected incumbent parties, bringing political uncertainty. This document discusses the economic issues facing Europe, including recession, high unemployment, and low business confidence. Traders who actively communicated with their network were more successful at "connecting the dots" of information and making profitable trades.
Arbuthnot Latham: Global Markets Report Q1 2019Siôn Puckle
Our report discusses general developments within global markets over the first quarter of 2019, with a focus on the issues influencing portfolios. Following an economic and market summary, we expand upon a number of themes before concluding with a review of the major asset classes.
This document provides an investment outlook and recommendations for building a defensive portfolio amid rising economic and political risks while also seizing opportunities. It recommends maintaining adequate liquidity through cash reserves, holding high-quality intermediate bonds for diversification and yield, and selectively investing in areas with potential for earnings growth like technology and healthcare stocks as well as US small caps and high-yield bonds when prices decline due to market volatility. While there are challenges like low productivity growth, the document argues that innovation and business creation will support continued economic expansion over the long term.
This document provides a market review and outlook from Walker Crips in October 2016 following the Brexit vote. It discusses the resilience of markets in the short-term despite uncertainty around Brexit. It notes the expansion of Walker Crips' assets under management and efforts to prevent fraud. Various economic indicators and sectors in the UK, Europe and US are also reviewed, with the FTSE 100 breaking 7,000 but uncertainties remaining around inflation, interest rates and European banks.
Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan who is known as one of the smartest bankers, revealed that the bank recently lost $2 billion on risky derivative bets. This loss shows that even experts can make mistakes, and provides three important lessons: keep strategies simple, closely monitor all investments, and remain humble, as even the smartest people can fail. The large loss damages JP Morgan's reputation of being well-managed during the financial crisis.
1) Greece passed austerity measures to receive EU aid and avoid default, relieving investors and sending markets soaring last week.
2) Positive manufacturing and earnings reports from companies like Nike also contributed to the market gains.
3) Sentiment can change quickly in financial markets, as the market had fallen for seven of the previous eight weeks but then surged last week.
SJP Special Investment Bulletin Feb 2016Tyler Stuart
The document discusses recent declines in global stock markets and concerns about the health of the global economy. It makes three key points:
1) While global economic growth is slowing, experts do not believe a global recession is imminent or that the current situation resembles 2008.
2) Well-diversified investment portfolios can help reduce risk and allow investors to achieve long-term goals, even with market volatility.
3) Periods of market decline have historically been followed by strong five-year returns for patient investors, suggesting current downturns may present opportunities.
The stock market experienced extreme volatility last week, with the S&P 500 index fluctuating up and down over 4% each day on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday before closing down only 1.7% for the week. Treasury rates dropped and the dollar was stable despite the US credit rating downgrade, as some investors sought safe havens. Consumer confidence hit a low not seen since 1980 due to crisis of confidence in government from unresolved debt problems and market tensions between the US and Europe.
- In October 2008, global stock markets experienced their worst month since the 1987 crash as fears about the health of the world economy rose sharply. The S&P 500 fell over 23% during the first eight trading days alone.
- The credit crisis that began with the housing bust in the US escalated in September with Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, igniting a wave of risk aversion across markets. Selling accelerated as investors fled stocks and hedge funds were forced to dump holdings.
- Central banks around the world coordinated unprecedented interest rate cuts and liquidity measures. Governments also allocated over $3 trillion for bailouts and stimulus to stabilize markets and confidence. These actions helped pare losses by month's end.
Cushman & Wakefield 2016 Capital Markets OutlookMatthew Marshall
The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016. Some key points:
- Global property investment volumes fell 2.4% in 2015, the first decline in 6 years, driven by lower volumes in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- The US saw the strongest growth at 25% and accounted for 39% of global volumes. Yields fell globally but recovery has been uneven by region.
- In 2016, core assets in major cities will remain popular. Demand will need to spread to new sectors and markets to find opportunities. Emerging markets may stabilize later in the year.
- Structural changes like
Welcome to the Cushman & Wakefield Atlas Outlook 2016,
an update on the International Investment Atlas that reviews
how the market performed last year and, more particularly,
what we should anticipate for the year ahead.
We have examined a series of questions when approaching this publication: what are the key forces
driving and transforming the global market? Who will be the winners in this volatile environment?
How should a subsequent investment strategy be most advantageously aligned?
Of course, in a highly uncertain but fast changing world, the need for insightful research is
increased – but the task of delivering a robust and well-considered view is made more difficult. By
bringing together expert opinion from across our capital markets, occupier and research teams
around the world, we have sought to answer this challenge and hope you agree we have delivered a
concise but thoughtful review of the state of the market and the outlook for the year ahead.
Naturally, any research can only be enhanced by further industry insight. To help us continuously
improve our Atlas Outlook, we would value your thoughts, comments or suggestions. Feel free to
share these via our Cushman & Wakefield social media
channels or by contacting our capital markets or research teams directly.
- The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016.
- Global property investment volumes fell slightly for the first time in 6 years in 2015, down 2.4% to $1.29 trillion, driven by a pullback in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- Going forward, the focus will be on core assets that provide value to occupants. Investors will seek platforms for local intelligence and pursue opportunities such as modern flexible office, retail, and logistics space in gateway cities.
1. The document discusses recent market volatility due to ongoing trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners. While this represents uncertainty, the trade policy aims to protect US workers and industries.
2. It is a challenging time for international investments as some economic growth has stalled and the rising US dollar puts pressure on foreign assets. However, fundamentals still look attractive for international stocks, with expected strong earnings growth.
3. The final article in the series on Social Security discusses the key factors to consider when deciding when to claim benefits - financial need and health/longevity. Online calculators require estimating life expectancy, but the best strategy generally depends on whether one expects to live past their late 70s or not.
The document summarizes recent negative economic news and market declines in the US. It reported that housing prices, manufacturing activity, consumer confidence, and unemployment all weakened in recent months. The stock market declined for five straight weeks in response. However, some analysts believe this is just a temporary slowdown and not the start of a double-dip recession, citing factors like low interest rates and corporate profits. The document advocates for optimism about US innovation and future economic growth.
Volatility returned to the markets as the S&P 500 fell 2% for the week due to concerns over the European debt crisis and slowing growth in China. Spain became the latest problem country in Europe, while China's economy expanded at its weakest pace in over three years. Additionally, weak earnings reports from several U.S. banks led to weakness in financial stocks. Conflicting economic data from the U.S. also contributed to uncertainty and market swings. The "quitters" indicator from the JOLTS report provided a positive signal about consumer confidence, despite a disappointing jobs report and decline in consumer sentiment surveys.
The document provides an overview and analysis of key market events and themes in the first quarter of 2018, including tariffs, technology, interest rates, and increased volatility. Tariffs imposed by the US administration aim to protect domestic industries but risk a trade war. Technology stocks declined due to company-specific issues, though the sector remains strong overall. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March and expects further hikes in 2018 as the economy remains healthy. Volatility rose in the first quarter as various pressures took hold in the market.
The document discusses the interconnectedness of global economies and markets. It notes that problems in countries like China can have worldwide repercussions. It also discusses the ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe weighing on US stock prices. While the US economy is performing reasonably well, its recovery remains fragile due to uncertainty around Europe's debt situation. The document advocates for international diversification given the declining dominance of the US in global stock market capitalization.
The document discusses why the United States attracts large amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI). It states that the U.S. is an attractive investment destination due to its political and economic stability, growing population and economy, vast resources, and recovery from the financial crisis through government intervention. New York leads other U.S. cities in attracting foreign investment, followed by Washington D.C., due to their positions as financial and political centers. The healthcare, technology, and real estate sectors in particular have seen large amounts of foreign investment in recent years.
December 13 quarterly: Is this too good to be true?Mark_Krygier
- The newsletter summarizes recent market performance and provides an outlook. It notes that historically markets have performed better from November to April.
- While some sectors seem overextended, fundamentals suggest markets may remain positive. The US central bank leadership is changing but no policy changes are expected.
- Bonds still have a place in portfolios due to providing insurance against volatility and securing capital, despite concerns around rising rates.
- The portfolio manager recently experienced a family loss and thanks clients who have referred new business.
Similar to Sprung investment management commentary 2nd quarter, 2016 (20)
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Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
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Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
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1. SECOND QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
Can Politics Trump Economics?
Image from Gage Skidmore via https://www.flickr.com
25 Adelaide Street East, Suite 500
Toronto, ON M5C 3A1
2. 25 Adelaide St. E., Suite 500, Toronto, ON M5C 3A1 | Phone: 416.607.6642 | www. SprungInvestment. com | P a g e | 2
Sprung Investment Management our focus is to create investment portfolios for our clients that
enable them to achieve their unique, long-term investment goals. In this endeavour, we strive to act
with the utmost integrity, utilising all of our analytical skills, knowledge and intuitions.
PRIVATE CLIENT FOCUS
Sprung Investment Management is an independent discretionary investment management firm that
serves the investment needs of high net worth private clients including business owners and
entrepreneurs, professionals, family trusts, estates, and private charitable foundations.
OUR PEOPLE
At Sprung Investment Management, the investment team collectively has over 120 years of diversified
investment experience. All of our principals hold the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and as
such adhere to the CFA Institute Code of Ethics. Each has made a commitment to continuing education.
RISK PERSPECTIVE
We understand that our clients have worked hard to get where they are and we appreciate that they don’t
want to lose it. As the chosen stewards of their investment assets, our risk management approach is to
preserve their capital by purchasing under-valued securities, with a margin of safety that we expect will
deliver income and capital appreciation over the long term.
PERFORMANCE
Sprung Investment Management has a track record of low volatility of returns since company inception
in June 2005. This has served our clients well over this relatively difficult investment period that
includes the bear market of 2007- 2008. Our performance numbers are available by request.
CLIENT SERVICE
At Sprung Investment Management, satisfying our client’s financial needs is our top priority. Each and
every client is special and receives individual attention and customized investment advice based on
his/her specific objectives and risk tolerance. Our principals are always available to speak directly to
clients.
INVESTMENT STYLE
In building equity portfolios, individual security selection is based on “bottom up” research that is value-
driven and often contrarian to current popular thinking. We assess quality and continuity of return on
equity, current price relative to intrinsic value, economic value added and quality of management.
Although our typical investment horizon is two to five years, we constantly evaluate our current
holdings against new opportunities that may offer better value. Our view is that a strong sell discipline is
a critical component to long-term investment success.
Our investment approach on the fixed income side is to conduct rigorous credit analysis in the context of
future economic and interest rate expectations.
3. 25 Adelaide St. E., Suite 500, Toronto, ON M5C 3A1 | Phone: 416.607.6642 | www. SprungInvestment. com | P a g e | 3
SECOND QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
Can Politics Trump Economics?
“Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying
the wrong remedies.” –Groucho Marx
“The expected rarely occurs and never in the expected manner.”- Vernon A. Walters
It didn’t go the way the pundits predicted. As the second quarter came to a close, people in the UK voted
to exit (Brexit) the European Union by a narrow margin. Despite the narrow differences in the polls,
global markets and the mainstream press indicated that the opposite outcome would prevail in the days
leading up to the vote.
Investors hate uncertainty. The immediate reaction to the Brexit vote was severe and negative. However,
stocks recovered to a great extent over the following week.
In North America, stock markets ended the quarter in positive territory. The Canadian market was up
considerably with very strong results in the Materials (+26.9%), Energy (+9.5%) and Utilities (+7.0%).
The laggards in Canada were primarily in Health Care (-15.3%) and Information Technology (-5.9%). In
the US, Energy (+10.8%), Utilities (+5.9%), Telecommunications (+5.9%) and Health Care (+5.8%)
lead the way while Information Technology (-3.3%) and Consumer Discretionary (-2.0%) lagged.
Canadian Dollar US Dollar
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YTD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YTD
Toronto Stock
Exchange 4.5% 5.1% 9.8%
S&P 500 -4.7% 1.9% -3.0% 1.3% 2.5% 3.8%
MSCI EAFE* -9.5% -3.2% -12.4% -3.7% -2.6% -6.3%
91 Day T-Bill 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
CUBI** 1.4% 2.6% 4.1%
CDN/US dollar 6.7% -0.3% 6.4%
* Europe, Asia and Far East Index
** Canadian Bond Universe Index
4. 25 Adelaide St. E., Suite 500, Toronto, ON M5C 3A1 | Phone: 416.607.6642 | www. SprungInvestment. com | P a g e | 4
The Brexit decision will continue to weigh on market sentiment for some time. The vote result was a
wake-up call to politicians of every stripe as the rationale for the outcome is debated and dissected. The
vote reflects an underlying current of discontent within populations in the developed democracies as
politicians have sought to engender resentment over wage stagnation, disappearing jobs and a growing
inequality of outcomes. (Politicians looking for trouble and finding it everywhere.) The result has been a
focus on the very trends that have sustained wealth and economic growth over the post-WWII period:
globalization, free trade and migration. The same style of political rhetoric is evident in the US as they
prepare for the presidential election in November.
While a divorce from the European Union, if indeed it ever comes to fruition, may take years to
negotiate, investors will deal with the inherent uncertainty that will surround the negotiations. In the
immediate aftermath of the vote, volatility increased as did bond prices as yields spiked lower and the
US dollar increased in value along with gold as investors sought a safe haven. The British Pound is
hovering near a thirty year low against the US dollar. Once the initial shock had subsided, share prices
recovered as investors became reconciled to the fact that this will be a long process, the results of which
may not be as devastating as the pictures painted by pundits prior to the vote.
Although overshadowed by Brexit at the end of the second quarter, other things of note were occurring
during the period.
As noted in our last Retrospective and Prospective, the Federal Reserve in the US had gone from a more
aggressive posture with respect to raising interest rates to a less certain posture by the end of the first
quarter. In the second quarter, more evidence of a slowdown or weaker economy is likely to reduce the
prospects of higher interest rates even more. On the positive side, the first quarter GDP figure was
modestly higher and housing markets appeared to be firm. More banks passed tests of capital adequacy,
improving prospects of dividend increases. However, both industrial production figures and capacity
utilization figures disappointed investors as did unit labour costs and productivity numbers. Employment
figures disappointed with large withdrawals of people from the workforce. Manufacturing inventories
were higher than expected while auto sales declined.
Commodity prices strengthened over the quarter bolstering the shares of Material and Energy
companies.
Companies announced a number of employee reductions, including Daimler, the London Stock
Exchange, Ralph Lauren, Wal-Mart and Dow Chemical.
In Japan, sales tax increases were postponed due to fears of a weakening economy in the face of lower
machine orders and lower exports.
In this environment, the yields of stronger issuers were pushed lower. In Germany, the 10 year bonds
went into negative territory and Swiss bonds were driven to a negative yield all the way out to 50 years.
There are now in excess of US$10 TRILLION in negative yield bonds in circulation!
In this environment, what is an investor to do?
5. 25 Adelaide St. E., Suite 500, Toronto, ON M5C 3A1 | Phone: 416.607.6642 | www. SprungInvestment. com | P a g e | 5
The dynamics and benefits of a diversified portfolio are evident. As we witnessed during the Brexit
aftermath, when stocks retreated, the value of the US dollar, gold and bonds went up. Assets react to
events and capital flows to where it is treated best. The interplay between bond yields, credit spreads,
stock prices, currencies and liquidity will continue to be impacted by economic conditions, energy and
commodity prices, changes in central bank and political policies and demographics. Technology will
continue to change the shape and nature of employment. As much as the Luddites* would like to turn
back the clock and take isolationist stances, technology will advance domestically and abroad.
Over the longer term, there will undoubtedly be winners and losers. Stronger companies will survive and
prosper. During the Brexit incident, we placed bids below the market in order to try and capture
opportunities that may have been presented.
Investors that are prepared will prosper.
* In the 19th
century, workers from Nottinghamshire,Yorkshire and Lancashire attempted to destroy the
new mechanized textile machines that wove fabric
6. 25 Adelaide St. E., Suite 500, Toronto, ON M5C 3A1 | Phone: 416.607.6642 | www. SprungInvestment. com | P a g e | 6
FIRST QUARTER 2016 FIXED INCOME COMMENTARY
“He is led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.” ~ Adam Smith
What a difference a week makes. Or for that matter, a quarter. In the early part of the quarter fixed
income investors were anticipating that the Federal Reserve would embark on a program of raising or
“normalizing” interest rates that may have resulted in possibly two rate hikes before the end of the year.
Investors were not taking into account the risk of “Brexit” (The UK voting to leave the European
Union). Despite polls showing a virtual dead heat, expectations were that on the day sober minds would
prevail and Brits would not make a leap into uncharted territory.
We now know how wrong they were. Politicians on both sides of the debate are exiting the stage,
seemingly having run out of ideas the morning after. The country seems to be in limbo without a clear
political or economic road map for the next steps. At this moment of indecision, only Bank of England
governor Carney (ex Bank of Canada) seems to have the poise and level headed vision as he has
attempted to calm fears by declaring that the BOE had plans ready for all eventualities and is ready to
provide liquidity to the banking system.
As it stands it will likely take years to sort out the political and administrative mess, both on the
continent and in Britain. At the same time, the knock on effects in the financial world will likely come to
a head sooner. That is of course unless the incoming set of political leaders can finesse some kind of
deal whereby eurosceptics and europhiles can both claim victory.
In the meantime, many real estate funds in England have suspended redemptions as the value of
underlying commercial properties are being called into question. In Italy, where a significant proportion
(~17%) of bank loans are non-performing, the government is looking at ways of shoring them up. This
of course is potentially a significant issue given how Italy’s economy is the fourth largest in the EU
(third largest without the UK). A banking crisis coming on the heels of Brexit would be yet another
shock for risk sensitized markets.
Interest rates on government bonds have dipped into negative territory in a number of countries,
especially in Europe and Japan. In Switzerland, all government issues posted negative yields as our
comments are being written. Overall, this has been caused by the combined effect of central banks
maintaining a stimulative low interest rate environment co-incident with a flight to the perceived safety
of government instruments. The Federal Reserve was expected to raise rates over the course of the rest
of the year, this however appears to be on hold after Brexit and a weaker than expected improvement in
the labour market.
The total return performance of the bond market as measured by the FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond
Index for the second quarter was an increase of 2.6%, while 91 day Treasury bills increased by 0.1%
over the same period. The benchmark ten-year Government of Canada bond yield declined by 0.2% to
1.1% by quarter-end. Over the course of the quarter, the Canadian dollar improved by 0.4 cents from
77.0 cents US to 77.4 cents US.
7. 25 Adelaide St. E., Suite 500, Toronto, ON M5C 3A1 | Phone: 416.607.6642 | www. SprungInvestment. com | P a g e | 7
Our Team
Michael Sprung, CFA: Chief Investment Officer
msprung@sprunginvestment.com
• Chief Investment Officer
• More than 30 years experience in Canadian Investment industry, overseeing portfolios up to $2.5B
• Senior level positions with YMG Capital Management, Goodman & Company, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Fund,
Ontario Hydro and Cassels Blaikie & Co.
• Frequent contributor to BNN-TV, Globe & Mail, National Post and Money Sense
Fred Palik, CFA: Vice President, Fixed Income
fpalik@sprunginvestment.com
• Extensive experience in fixed income management in a variety of senior positions, primarily in the insurance
and hospital sectors.
• Member of the Toronto CFA Society and the CFA Institute.
Lois O’Sullivan, CFA: Vice President
loiso@sprunginvestment.com
More that 25 years experience in investment management.
• Co-founder of Sprucegrove Investment Management, specializing in international markets.
• Senior level roles at Confed Investment Counselling and Confederation Life Insurance Company.
• Fellow of the Life Office Management Institute (FLMI), the Toronto CFA Society and the CFA Institute.
Joie P. Watts, CFA, FSCI: Vice President & Portfolio Manager
jpwatts@sprunginvestment.com
• Over 30 years of progressive experience in the securities and investment industry.
• Senior level roles at Burns Fry Limited, Merrill Lynch Canada and Nesbitt Thomson.
• Managing Director of Instinet Canada Limited for over 10 years
• CEO of Shorcan ATS Limited, a specialized marketplace for equity dealers trading as principal.
Robert D. Champion, MSEd: Vice President, Client Services
rchampion@sprunginvestment.com
• Joined Sprung Investments Management in 2012 after several years with Successful Investor Wealth
Management.
• Prior to that, he had a fifteen-year career in OEM industrial sales.
• Manager with investment-publishing division of MPL Communications in the 1980s and early 1990s. MPL
publish Investor’s Digest and Investment Reporter.
Stay connected with Sprung Investment Management:
Twitter https://twitter.com/SprungInvest Twitter handle @SprungInvest
Facebook http://www.facebook.com/SprungInvestment
Linkedin http://www.linkedin.com/company/1699967
Google+ https://plus.google.com/+Sprunginvestment/
See Michael on BNN Market Call http://www.sprunginvestment.com/videos/