This document provides an investment outlook and recommendations for building a defensive portfolio amid rising economic and political risks while also seizing opportunities. It recommends maintaining adequate liquidity through cash reserves, holding high-quality intermediate bonds for diversification and yield, and selectively investing in areas with potential for earnings growth like technology and healthcare stocks as well as US small caps and high-yield bonds when prices decline due to market volatility. While there are challenges like low productivity growth, the document argues that innovation and business creation will support continued economic expansion over the long term.
1) The document reviews market conditions in 2009, noting the extreme pessimism and economic deterioration due to the financial crisis. While 2009 saw gradual economic improvement, conditions are still challenging, with high unemployment.
2) Conditions have improved modestly in 2010, including increased corporate spending and consumer confidence, and reopening of credit and equity markets. However, risks remain like potential inflation or regulatory changes.
3) For composting and organics recycling companies, gradually improving conditions may increase access to capital through debt or equity financing. Smaller companies should prepare for fundraising to take advantage of improving opportunities.
The portfolio manager provides a summary of market performance in 2012, an outlook for 2013, and commentary on portfolio strategy. Key points include: global markets gained over 10% in 2012 despite concerns over Europe and the US fiscal cliff; volatility is expected to continue in 2013 due to unresolved debt issues; the portfolio is diversified across regions and maintains an appropriate level of risk for clients through its asset allocation model.
The document provides an analysis of economic conditions in the Arabian markets. It discusses how central banks have expanded monetary policies but face limits in stimulating economies. Governments are gaining traction with fiscal policies like infrastructure spending. The pandemic's economic impact remains unpredictable. GCC stock markets have rallied but continue to underperform peers. Banking sectors in the GCC remain profitable despite expected losses. Saudi Arabia is taking risks with contractionary fiscal policies to induce creative destruction and private sector restructuring. Support for small and medium enterprises has been lacking despite their importance. Sovereign wealth funds could provide more support through lending.
The document summarizes the outlook for markets in 2009. It believes the recession will persist through 2009 with a weak recovery. Government stimulus plans aim to boost spending but the effects may be delayed. The Federal Reserve has increased money supply but must remove excess cash to avoid inflation. Consumers are saving more due to debt and falling asset values, which may slow growth but support bond prices. Global trade and capital flows are also slowing. The outlook calls for a challenging year with opportunities in quality companies and bonds offering higher yields. Flexibility will be needed to respond to changing opportunities and risks.
It has been seven years since the last financial crisis. In that seven-year period, the total global debt has increased by even more than it did in the seven years previous (2000-2007). From the end of 2007 through to the end of the first half of last year, total global debt increased by 40%, or $US 57 TRILLION! This massive increase in debt has been a consequence of easy money in a low interest rate environment aided and abetted by programs of quantitative easing (the provision of liquidity by central banks) in order to promote economic growth and investment.
The first quarter managed to record some positive results overall, despite severe declines in some sectors.
The document discusses investment outlooks for 2016. Key points include:
- Continued low global growth is expected, along with subdued inflation and accommodative monetary policy.
- Risks remain skewed downward, and markets could become volatile on negative news.
- In equities, favor areas with economic tailwinds like the Eurozone, Japan, and US financial and consumer sectors.
- In fixed income, favor a balanced approach including credit sensitive sectors like high yield bonds and senior loans.
Investment review and outlook august 2018 Roger Beutler
The document provides an investment review and outlook for August 2018. It summarizes recent performance across various asset classes including equities, fixed income, real assets, and private equity. While equity returns have been strong, markets face increased risks due to high valuations, rising interest rates, and potential trade wars. Diversification across asset classes remains important, as different areas may provide opportunities even during market downturns. Selective, globally diversified investments could continue generating attractive returns going forward despite challenges in the current investing environment.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
1) The document reviews market conditions in 2009, noting the extreme pessimism and economic deterioration due to the financial crisis. While 2009 saw gradual economic improvement, conditions are still challenging, with high unemployment.
2) Conditions have improved modestly in 2010, including increased corporate spending and consumer confidence, and reopening of credit and equity markets. However, risks remain like potential inflation or regulatory changes.
3) For composting and organics recycling companies, gradually improving conditions may increase access to capital through debt or equity financing. Smaller companies should prepare for fundraising to take advantage of improving opportunities.
The portfolio manager provides a summary of market performance in 2012, an outlook for 2013, and commentary on portfolio strategy. Key points include: global markets gained over 10% in 2012 despite concerns over Europe and the US fiscal cliff; volatility is expected to continue in 2013 due to unresolved debt issues; the portfolio is diversified across regions and maintains an appropriate level of risk for clients through its asset allocation model.
The document provides an analysis of economic conditions in the Arabian markets. It discusses how central banks have expanded monetary policies but face limits in stimulating economies. Governments are gaining traction with fiscal policies like infrastructure spending. The pandemic's economic impact remains unpredictable. GCC stock markets have rallied but continue to underperform peers. Banking sectors in the GCC remain profitable despite expected losses. Saudi Arabia is taking risks with contractionary fiscal policies to induce creative destruction and private sector restructuring. Support for small and medium enterprises has been lacking despite their importance. Sovereign wealth funds could provide more support through lending.
The document summarizes the outlook for markets in 2009. It believes the recession will persist through 2009 with a weak recovery. Government stimulus plans aim to boost spending but the effects may be delayed. The Federal Reserve has increased money supply but must remove excess cash to avoid inflation. Consumers are saving more due to debt and falling asset values, which may slow growth but support bond prices. Global trade and capital flows are also slowing. The outlook calls for a challenging year with opportunities in quality companies and bonds offering higher yields. Flexibility will be needed to respond to changing opportunities and risks.
It has been seven years since the last financial crisis. In that seven-year period, the total global debt has increased by even more than it did in the seven years previous (2000-2007). From the end of 2007 through to the end of the first half of last year, total global debt increased by 40%, or $US 57 TRILLION! This massive increase in debt has been a consequence of easy money in a low interest rate environment aided and abetted by programs of quantitative easing (the provision of liquidity by central banks) in order to promote economic growth and investment.
The first quarter managed to record some positive results overall, despite severe declines in some sectors.
The document discusses investment outlooks for 2016. Key points include:
- Continued low global growth is expected, along with subdued inflation and accommodative monetary policy.
- Risks remain skewed downward, and markets could become volatile on negative news.
- In equities, favor areas with economic tailwinds like the Eurozone, Japan, and US financial and consumer sectors.
- In fixed income, favor a balanced approach including credit sensitive sectors like high yield bonds and senior loans.
Investment review and outlook august 2018 Roger Beutler
The document provides an investment review and outlook for August 2018. It summarizes recent performance across various asset classes including equities, fixed income, real assets, and private equity. While equity returns have been strong, markets face increased risks due to high valuations, rising interest rates, and potential trade wars. Diversification across asset classes remains important, as different areas may provide opportunities even during market downturns. Selective, globally diversified investments could continue generating attractive returns going forward despite challenges in the current investing environment.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
- The document discusses the outlook for 2015, noting a return of volatility due to slowing global economic growth, a surging US dollar, and collapsing oil prices. This has led to fears of economic trouble globally.
- Central banks around the world are enacting monetary stimulus programs to promote growth and fight deflation in response to falling commodity prices and inflation. The ECB announced a large quantitative easing program.
- A strong US dollar and falling oil prices benefit US consumers but may weigh on business activity and profits. The US consumer accounts for 70% of the economy so 2015 may be better for Main Street than Wall Street.
This document provides a summary of the global economic outlook and trends for retailers to consider. It discusses slowing economic growth in many leading markets in 2012. In Europe, government spending cuts and debt issues are weakening economies and confidence. In the US, uncertainty around fiscal policy is hurting markets. China is also slowing after monetary tightening. Some positives for retailers include potential margin improvements from lower commodity prices and inflation in some countries. Long term global growth prospects remain strong, especially in emerging markets.
1) The document provides an overview of global market performance and macroeconomic conditions in June 2020, noting that markets rose positively while recovery remained slow.
2) It analyzes the economic backdrops and risks for key regions including slow growth globally and recessions in major economies like the UK, US, and Europe. Central banks have enacted significant stimulus measures.
3) Key risks mentioned are a potential second wave of COVID-19, weak corporate balance sheets, political changes in the US, a hard Brexit for the UK, and slowing growth in China. The document examines themes, sectors, and assets in the current environment.
Capital Markets Industry Insights - Q1 2016Duff & Phelps
Prospective middle-market issuers are being greeted with robust demand from both traditional private credit investors and crossover public market participants. While monetary policy concerns weighed heavily on market participants for much of the first quarter, the Fed’s more dovish posture of recent weeks has triggered an increase in risk appetite across the credit markets.
BlackRock: 2014 Outlook The List - What to Know, What to DoEcon Matters
The document provides a mid-year update on the 2014 outlook for various asset classes and investment themes. It notes that stocks have outperformed bonds so far in 2014 and are on pace for mid to upper single digit returns by year-end. It maintains the views that economic growth will continue improving but remain below trend, and that interest rates will trend upward modestly in the second half of the year. Key investment themes to seek growth while managing volatility, find income but don't overreach, and rethink bonds also remain intact.
Central banks around the world are still trying to restore economic conditions to pre-crisis levels and major policy differences remain, which will affect markets in 2016. The document predicts modest global stock market gains, a strong U.S. dollar, and low bond yields in 2016 alongside periods of market volatility. U.S. stock gains are expected to continue but the bull market is mature with weaker earnings growth and stretched valuations, leading to mixed performance and corrections. International stocks may benefit from improving global growth but gains will be limited in emerging markets due to concerns over monetary policy divergence and a rising dollar.
Brent Woyat, a portfolio manager at OceanForest Investment Partners, provides a quarterly commentary on the capital markets and his investment outlook. He notes that while the media focuses on negative economic indicators, several business leaders including Warren Buffett, Steve Ballmer, and Jeff Immelt expressed optimism about long-term economic growth at a recent conference. Woyat also cites a McKinsey survey finding that most executives expect rising profits and hiring. Based on these positive views, Woyat remains bullish on the global economy and recommends clients maintain their full target equity allocations. He further discusses the quarterly performance of the firm's portfolio mandates, highlighting several holdings with double-digit returns.
This document provides an overview of the current volatile market environment and outlines 10 rules of thumb for navigating periods of increased volatility. It discusses recent declines in major indexes and rise in market volatility. While the authors' base case sees continued slow economic and earnings growth, they note several signs of uncertainty globally. The 10 rules of thumb focus on identifying companies with organic growth opportunities, flexible finances, strong cash flow, and earnings quality to invest successfully through the market cycle.
This newsletter introduces a new publication called "EYE ON THE MARKETS" that will analyze macroeconomic trends, investment management, and equity market movements. The author argues that macro events have an overwhelming influence on stock markets, and periods of calm have been interrupted by market sell-offs due to crises in Europe, the US, and Asia. Investors need to carefully manage their portfolios and prepare contingency plans for different scenarios. Some positive factors are signs of recovery in corporate earnings, manufacturing, and technology, though continued global uncertainties remain.
SJP Special Investment Bulletin Feb 2016Tyler Stuart
The document discusses recent declines in global stock markets and concerns about the health of the global economy. It makes three key points:
1) While global economic growth is slowing, experts do not believe a global recession is imminent or that the current situation resembles 2008.
2) Well-diversified investment portfolios can help reduce risk and allow investors to achieve long-term goals, even with market volatility.
3) Periods of market decline have historically been followed by strong five-year returns for patient investors, suggesting current downturns may present opportunities.
This document provides an economic outlook and investment outlook for 2012. Some key points:
- The US economy is expected to grow around 2% in 2012, supported by solid business spending and modest consumer spending. Inflation may recede early in the year.
- Stocks are expected to post gains of 8-12% in 2012, supported by mid-to-high single digit earnings growth as sentiment improves to converge with economic data.
- Government and corporate bond yields are expected to rise over the course of the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending around 3%. The gap between government and corporate bond yields is expected to narrow.
- Major policy events in Europe, China, and
Abstract from MARCH 2012 fasanara 'fat tail risk hedging programs' FTRHPsFasanara Capital ltd
This document discusses portfolio hedging strategies, including security-specific hedging, macro overlay hedging, and Fat Tail Risk Hedging Programs. It provides examples of strategies to hedge various tail risks, such as short positions in Japanese equities and currency to hedge risks of a credit crunch or default scenario. Short positions in shipping companies and rates are discussed to hedge risks associated with a decline in China's commodity imports. Purchasing out of the money options on currencies like the Swiss Franc and Danish Krone are presented as ways to hedge against an EU break up scenario. Short positions in Japanese rates and long gold are discussed as hedges against an inflation scenario. Declining Chinese export growth is cited as
The document summarizes the outlook and strategy of the Global Commodity Systematic Program (GCS) managed by Global Advisors. GCS uses a rules-based, non-discretionary approach to identify and manage trends across 35 commodity markets. It expects profitable opportunities over the next few years due to factors such as the devaluation of paper currencies, continued demand growth in emerging markets like China, a supply shock from reduced commodity investment, and increasing investment in commodities from stock market investors. Charts are presented supporting these views, and it is argued that if commodity markets exhibit strong trends, the GCS program will be able to generate strong returns managing those trends.
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
The document provides a comprehensive review and outlook of the US economy across several areas including demographics, markets, real estate, employment, and GDP. It summarizes key data and trends in each area, with some of the main points being that demographics will weigh on consumption as baby boomers retire, the housing market still faces significant headwinds from high inventory and foreclosures, unemployment remains at historically high levels across many sectors, and GDP growth is expected to be positive in the short term but a return to recession is still possible given weak underlying fundamentals.
The document provides a market outlook and forecast for 2013 by Timothy E. Burt, CFA.
The summary is:
1) Most global stock markets performed well in 2012, led by Germany and Japan, while the UK and Canada lagged.
2) The author believes the global economy will gradually improve in 2013, with stronger growth in the second half as issues in Europe and China are addressed.
3) The forecast is for US GDP growth of 3.0-3.5% and Canadian growth of 1.5-2.0% in 2013. US and Canadian stock markets are expected to rise 12-15% with the S&P 500 surpassing its 2007 high.
Stocks rallied in May, with several indexes reaching record highs. Economic conditions have improved from a year ago, with inflation stabilizing and business spending recovering. Corporate earnings grew 8.1% in the first quarter, ending a streak of 14 quarters of double-digit growth. While markets have reached milestones, valuations are still relatively reasonable compared to the tech bubble peak in 2000.
Este documento apresenta um orçamento doméstico detalhado com as receitas, despesas e saldo para um mês. As receitas incluem salários líquidos, renda de aplicações e outras fontes. As despesas estão categorizadas em morar, comer, ir e vir, vestir, cuidados pessoais, estudar, lazer, despesas financeiras e saúde. No final é apresentado o cálculo da receita líquida menos as despesas para chegar ao saldo final.
O documento fornece uma introdução ao teste automatizado com Selenium e Visual Studio, descrevendo como configurar o ambiente de desenvolvimento, criar casos de teste e executá-los. Ele também discute os benefícios da automação de testes.
- The document discusses the outlook for 2015, noting a return of volatility due to slowing global economic growth, a surging US dollar, and collapsing oil prices. This has led to fears of economic trouble globally.
- Central banks around the world are enacting monetary stimulus programs to promote growth and fight deflation in response to falling commodity prices and inflation. The ECB announced a large quantitative easing program.
- A strong US dollar and falling oil prices benefit US consumers but may weigh on business activity and profits. The US consumer accounts for 70% of the economy so 2015 may be better for Main Street than Wall Street.
This document provides a summary of the global economic outlook and trends for retailers to consider. It discusses slowing economic growth in many leading markets in 2012. In Europe, government spending cuts and debt issues are weakening economies and confidence. In the US, uncertainty around fiscal policy is hurting markets. China is also slowing after monetary tightening. Some positives for retailers include potential margin improvements from lower commodity prices and inflation in some countries. Long term global growth prospects remain strong, especially in emerging markets.
1) The document provides an overview of global market performance and macroeconomic conditions in June 2020, noting that markets rose positively while recovery remained slow.
2) It analyzes the economic backdrops and risks for key regions including slow growth globally and recessions in major economies like the UK, US, and Europe. Central banks have enacted significant stimulus measures.
3) Key risks mentioned are a potential second wave of COVID-19, weak corporate balance sheets, political changes in the US, a hard Brexit for the UK, and slowing growth in China. The document examines themes, sectors, and assets in the current environment.
Capital Markets Industry Insights - Q1 2016Duff & Phelps
Prospective middle-market issuers are being greeted with robust demand from both traditional private credit investors and crossover public market participants. While monetary policy concerns weighed heavily on market participants for much of the first quarter, the Fed’s more dovish posture of recent weeks has triggered an increase in risk appetite across the credit markets.
BlackRock: 2014 Outlook The List - What to Know, What to DoEcon Matters
The document provides a mid-year update on the 2014 outlook for various asset classes and investment themes. It notes that stocks have outperformed bonds so far in 2014 and are on pace for mid to upper single digit returns by year-end. It maintains the views that economic growth will continue improving but remain below trend, and that interest rates will trend upward modestly in the second half of the year. Key investment themes to seek growth while managing volatility, find income but don't overreach, and rethink bonds also remain intact.
Central banks around the world are still trying to restore economic conditions to pre-crisis levels and major policy differences remain, which will affect markets in 2016. The document predicts modest global stock market gains, a strong U.S. dollar, and low bond yields in 2016 alongside periods of market volatility. U.S. stock gains are expected to continue but the bull market is mature with weaker earnings growth and stretched valuations, leading to mixed performance and corrections. International stocks may benefit from improving global growth but gains will be limited in emerging markets due to concerns over monetary policy divergence and a rising dollar.
Brent Woyat, a portfolio manager at OceanForest Investment Partners, provides a quarterly commentary on the capital markets and his investment outlook. He notes that while the media focuses on negative economic indicators, several business leaders including Warren Buffett, Steve Ballmer, and Jeff Immelt expressed optimism about long-term economic growth at a recent conference. Woyat also cites a McKinsey survey finding that most executives expect rising profits and hiring. Based on these positive views, Woyat remains bullish on the global economy and recommends clients maintain their full target equity allocations. He further discusses the quarterly performance of the firm's portfolio mandates, highlighting several holdings with double-digit returns.
This document provides an overview of the current volatile market environment and outlines 10 rules of thumb for navigating periods of increased volatility. It discusses recent declines in major indexes and rise in market volatility. While the authors' base case sees continued slow economic and earnings growth, they note several signs of uncertainty globally. The 10 rules of thumb focus on identifying companies with organic growth opportunities, flexible finances, strong cash flow, and earnings quality to invest successfully through the market cycle.
This newsletter introduces a new publication called "EYE ON THE MARKETS" that will analyze macroeconomic trends, investment management, and equity market movements. The author argues that macro events have an overwhelming influence on stock markets, and periods of calm have been interrupted by market sell-offs due to crises in Europe, the US, and Asia. Investors need to carefully manage their portfolios and prepare contingency plans for different scenarios. Some positive factors are signs of recovery in corporate earnings, manufacturing, and technology, though continued global uncertainties remain.
SJP Special Investment Bulletin Feb 2016Tyler Stuart
The document discusses recent declines in global stock markets and concerns about the health of the global economy. It makes three key points:
1) While global economic growth is slowing, experts do not believe a global recession is imminent or that the current situation resembles 2008.
2) Well-diversified investment portfolios can help reduce risk and allow investors to achieve long-term goals, even with market volatility.
3) Periods of market decline have historically been followed by strong five-year returns for patient investors, suggesting current downturns may present opportunities.
This document provides an economic outlook and investment outlook for 2012. Some key points:
- The US economy is expected to grow around 2% in 2012, supported by solid business spending and modest consumer spending. Inflation may recede early in the year.
- Stocks are expected to post gains of 8-12% in 2012, supported by mid-to-high single digit earnings growth as sentiment improves to converge with economic data.
- Government and corporate bond yields are expected to rise over the course of the year, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending around 3%. The gap between government and corporate bond yields is expected to narrow.
- Major policy events in Europe, China, and
Abstract from MARCH 2012 fasanara 'fat tail risk hedging programs' FTRHPsFasanara Capital ltd
This document discusses portfolio hedging strategies, including security-specific hedging, macro overlay hedging, and Fat Tail Risk Hedging Programs. It provides examples of strategies to hedge various tail risks, such as short positions in Japanese equities and currency to hedge risks of a credit crunch or default scenario. Short positions in shipping companies and rates are discussed to hedge risks associated with a decline in China's commodity imports. Purchasing out of the money options on currencies like the Swiss Franc and Danish Krone are presented as ways to hedge against an EU break up scenario. Short positions in Japanese rates and long gold are discussed as hedges against an inflation scenario. Declining Chinese export growth is cited as
The document summarizes the outlook and strategy of the Global Commodity Systematic Program (GCS) managed by Global Advisors. GCS uses a rules-based, non-discretionary approach to identify and manage trends across 35 commodity markets. It expects profitable opportunities over the next few years due to factors such as the devaluation of paper currencies, continued demand growth in emerging markets like China, a supply shock from reduced commodity investment, and increasing investment in commodities from stock market investors. Charts are presented supporting these views, and it is argued that if commodity markets exhibit strong trends, the GCS program will be able to generate strong returns managing those trends.
1. Reflation Phase To Be Temporary, More Downside Ahead
Earlier on in 2016, ‘random and violent markets’ went off to panic mode out of (i) fears over China’s messy stock market and devaluing currency, (ii) plummeting oil price, (iii) strong US Dollar. Today, we believe complacent markets are similarly illogical and over-shooting, this time on the way up. As we re-assess the validity of the underlying risks, we expect a shift in narrative in the few months ahead and a sizeable sell-off for risk assets.
2. Four Key Conviction Ideas
We analyze below our key ideas for the next 12 months:
Short Chinese Renminbi Thesis. In Q1, China only managed to keep GDP in shape by means of graciously expanding credit by a monumental 1 trn $. Unsurprisingly, at 250% total debt on GDP, you cannot borrow 10% of GDP per quarter for long, without a currency adjustment, whether desired or not.
Short Oil Thesis. Long-term, we believe Oil will follow a volatile path around a declining trend-line, which will take it one day to sub-10$. Within 2016, we expect global aggregate demand to stay anemic and supply to surprise on the upside, inventories to grow, primarily due to the accelerating speed of technological progress.
Short S&P Thesis. To us, the S&P is priced to perfection, despite a most cloudy environment for growth and risk assets, thus representing a good value short, for limited upside is combined with the risk of a sizeable sell-off in the months ahead.
Short European Banks Thesis. We believe that micro policies at the local level, while valid, are impotent against heavy structural macro headwinds, and only the macro environment can save the banking sector in its current form in the longer-term. Macro structural headwinds for banks these days are too heavy a burden (negative sloped interest rate curves, deeply negative interest rates, deflationary economy, depressed GDP growth, over-regulation, Fintech), and will likely push valuations to new lows in the months/years ahead.
U.S. MarketBeats provide an overview of quarterly CRE activity and trends, a snapshot of current economic and capital market conditions as well as market-level statistics on key metrics.
The U.S. economy in 2016 was characterized by steady growth in the face of uncertainty. The year began with steep declines in global equity markets in response to concerns about a slowdown in China, the Europe replaced Asia as the focal point of global anxiety after the Brexit vote. In the fourth quarter, the U.S. unexpectedly elected Donald Trump as President. Despite uncertainty, the economy continued to add an average of 180,000 jobs per month during 2016.
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’
‘Deflationary Boom Markets’ is the name of the game. Deflation forces Central Banks into action. Central banks to push Bonds and Equities higher, inflating the bubble some more, although on a rougher path and with higher volatility than we got accustomed to in recent years.
The document provides a comprehensive review and outlook of the US economy across several areas including demographics, markets, real estate, employment, and GDP. It summarizes key data and trends in each area, with some of the main points being that demographics will weigh on consumption as baby boomers retire, the housing market still faces significant headwinds from high inventory and foreclosures, unemployment remains at historically high levels across many sectors, and GDP growth is expected to be positive in the short term but a return to recession is still possible given weak underlying fundamentals.
The document provides a market outlook and forecast for 2013 by Timothy E. Burt, CFA.
The summary is:
1) Most global stock markets performed well in 2012, led by Germany and Japan, while the UK and Canada lagged.
2) The author believes the global economy will gradually improve in 2013, with stronger growth in the second half as issues in Europe and China are addressed.
3) The forecast is for US GDP growth of 3.0-3.5% and Canadian growth of 1.5-2.0% in 2013. US and Canadian stock markets are expected to rise 12-15% with the S&P 500 surpassing its 2007 high.
Stocks rallied in May, with several indexes reaching record highs. Economic conditions have improved from a year ago, with inflation stabilizing and business spending recovering. Corporate earnings grew 8.1% in the first quarter, ending a streak of 14 quarters of double-digit growth. While markets have reached milestones, valuations are still relatively reasonable compared to the tech bubble peak in 2000.
Este documento apresenta um orçamento doméstico detalhado com as receitas, despesas e saldo para um mês. As receitas incluem salários líquidos, renda de aplicações e outras fontes. As despesas estão categorizadas em morar, comer, ir e vir, vestir, cuidados pessoais, estudar, lazer, despesas financeiras e saúde. No final é apresentado o cálculo da receita líquida menos as despesas para chegar ao saldo final.
O documento fornece uma introdução ao teste automatizado com Selenium e Visual Studio, descrevendo como configurar o ambiente de desenvolvimento, criar casos de teste e executá-los. Ele também discute os benefícios da automação de testes.
La nube privada permite a las empresas alojar sus propios datos y aplicaciones en sus propios centros de datos o en centros de datos administrados por proveedores de servicios en la nube, en lugar de utilizar la nube pública. Las empresas pueden aprovechar los beneficios de la escalabilidad y la flexibilidad de la nube sin renunciar al control y la seguridad de los datos al mantenerlos internamente o en un entorno gestionado de forma exclusiva.
Brown Advisory recently held a client forum called NOW 2016 to explore issues around disruption in technology and other fields. Speakers discussed advances in areas like genetic engineering, drone technology, and digital business models, but also cautioned that institutions need to adapt quickly to ensure equality and societal well-being amid rapid change. Three companies - Amazon, Microsoft, and Google - were highlighted as dominating the growing cloud computing industry by committing billions to infrastructure and demonstrating the reliability and security of cloud services.
iRS is a cloud-based e-Kanban system that automates inventory replenishment, eliminating waste and shortages while providing real-time visibility of supply consumption patterns and analytics to assist users. iAMS is a similar cloud-based solution that utilizes technologies like RFID, BLE, and Wi-Fi to track and manage assets in real-time with customized dashboards and data analytics. Both solutions are aimed at improving supply chain efficiency and accuracy through automated data capture and analysis.
This document discusses four topics: bungee jumping, music note wavelengths, skiing, and elevators. It applies the concept of combined functions from algebra to model real-world situations involving more than one variable.
The document provides guidelines for reporting speech and questions in indirect speech. It notes that tenses change to the past in indirect speech. Pronouns, time/place adverbs, and demonstratives may need to change depending on the context. The verbs "say" and "tell" are used differently, with an object pronoun only used after "tell". Indirect questions use "ask" plus the question word or "if/whether" for yes/no questions. "Tell" and "ask" are followed by the person/pronoun and an infinitive with "to".
El documento es un informe de dos estudiantes del Colegio Nacional Nicolas Esguerra sobre su trabajo en programación NXT. Detalla que completaron la Actividad 1 pero no pudieron hacer las otras dos actividades debido a que no tenían el software necesario para continuar trabajando desde casa.
El documento describe la diversidad vegetal de España. Explica que España tiene seis regiones florales debido a su clima y geografía. Los factores que afectan la diversidad incluyen el clima, el relieve, los suelos y la posición geográfica. También se ven afectados por factores humanos como la degradación y la introducción de especies. Se describen los principales paisajes vegetales como los del clima oceánico, mediterráneo, de ribera, montaña y Canarias.
Web 2.0 tools such as blogs and podcasts can effectively support reading achievement in K-12 students. They provide collaborative environments to expand reading and writing skills in areas like fluency, vocabulary, and text comprehension. Blogs allow for creativity and ownership in the reading/writing process, while podcasts can impact vocabulary development and comprehension through audio resources. Creating podcasts of readers' theater, oral readings, or book reports encourages repetition, rereading, and public performance, motivating students and improving their work.
This document appears to be an interior design portfolio belonging to Megan Heaton. It includes summaries and deliverables for 10-12 design projects including a retail store, sustainable home, NKBA kitchen, airport kiosk, 2020 kitchen, students' center re-design, manual drafting, sketches and renderings, and residential exterior design. For each project, it lists the objectives and deliverables such as concept statements, drawings, models, and presentations. It also includes several images related to the different projects.
This document introduces AddWeb, an IT development and consulting company based in Ahmedabad, India. It summarizes AddWeb's mission, vision, values and mantra of client delight. The document outlines AddWeb's services such as website and app development using technologies like Drupal, PHP, and AngularJS. It also provides facts about AddWeb's client base, experience, employee retention and certification. Finally, it describes how clients can engage with AddWeb through fixed price, time and material, or dedicated approaches.
- The document discusses the increased market volatility seen so far in 2016 due to concerns over China's economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and uncertainty around the pace of Fed interest rate hikes.
- It argues that investors should focus on long-term goals and plans rather than trying to predict short-term market movements, which are driven by factors like high-frequency trading and central bank actions.
- While short-term volatility may remain high, fundamental factors like company earnings growth and credit quality will still determine long-term investment returns; investors should stick to strategies focused on identifying attractive long-term value.
- The document discusses new approaches to investment management that focus on risk awareness and absolute returns rather than benchmark returns. It summarizes recent volatility in traditional asset classes and the growth of absolute return funds in response. Absolute return funds aim to provide positive returns regardless of market conditions through diversification of investment strategies and philosophies rather than just asset types. The document argues for looking beyond traditional indexes to find investment opportunities and evaluating portfolios based on their allocation of risk rather than just asset types.
The portfolio manager discusses the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund. They reiterate their commitment to maximizing value in the portfolio and returning capital to shareholders in a timely manner. Eight of the top ten holdings have restructured in the past two years, reducing debt levels. The manager believes the portfolio contains significant embedded value that will be realized as market conditions normalize and corporate events occur. They intend to provide transparency to shareholders through monthly fact sheets and quarterly commentary on the fund's website. The manager also discusses recent volatility in the high yield and distressed debt markets, noting that credit spreads spiked in 2015 but it is unclear if this will lead to recession or opportunity.
Private Asset Management Feb 2013 Inflation HedgingBrian Hahn
The document discusses how increasing inflation could impact investment portfolios and recommends that investors consider allocating to asset classes that can hedge against inflation, such as Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, floating rate bank loans, commodities, and certain stocks in industries like energy, materials, and industrials that tend to perform well during inflationary periods. It also notes that flexible bond management and adjusting bond portfolio durations can help mitigate the effects of rising interest rates that often accompany inflation.
Pam Article 2013 inflation and your portfolioBrian Hahn
The document discusses how increasing inflation could impact investment portfolios and recommends that investors consider allocating to asset classes that can provide protection against inflation, such as Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, floating rate bank loans, commodities, and certain stocks in sectors like energy, materials, and industrials that tend to perform well during periods of higher inflation. It also notes that flexible bond management strategies can help reduce interest rate risk for bond portfolios in an inflationary environment.
This document discusses the benefits of international investing through diversification and exposure to higher growth rates abroad. It notes that international markets can experience different returns than the US market, potentially lowering overall portfolio risk. While international investing brings additional risks, these can be reduced through a diversified portfolio that includes both developed and emerging markets. The document advocates for a globally diversified portfolio for most investors.
Covid19 Pandemic: Looming Global Recession and Impact on BangladeshMd. Tanzirul Amin
The document summarizes the economic impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, including a potential global recession. It discusses indicators that a recession may occur, such as stock market declines and yield curve inversions. The pandemic has reduced global production and exports while increasing unemployment. For Bangladesh specifically, exports and remittances declined sharply, threatening employment and government revenue. The economic challenges for Bangladesh recovering are substantial in the face of an uncertain global economic outlook.
What should investors do to protect against an imminent raise in interest rat...David Osio
The Federal Reserve has indicated it plans to raise interest rates for the first time in over 9 years as a preventative measure rather than in reaction to current economic conditions. This will affect emerging market debt securities denominated in US dollars the most. The document recommends reducing credit and duration risk in bond portfolios by focusing on maturities between 18-24 months and reallocating to longer-term securities at higher rates once hikes begin. It also suggests investing in consumer staples, healthcare, financials stocks and hedge funds for their ability to offer returns in various market conditions.
What should investors do to protect against an imminent raise in interest rat...David Osio
The Federal Reserve has indicated it plans to raise interest rates for the first time in over 9 years as a preventative measure rather than in reaction to current economic conditions. This will affect emerging market debt securities denominated in US dollars the most. The document recommends reducing credit and duration risk in bond portfolios by focusing on maturities between 18-24 months and reallocating to longer-term securities at higher rates once hikes begin. It also suggests investing in consumer staples, healthcare, financials stocks and hedge funds for their ability to capture opportunities arising from rate hikes.
The document discusses recent underperformance in the US credit sector and factors driving spread widening, including fears over a Chinese economic slowdown, high corporate debt issuance, and declining oil prices. It analyzes how the metals and mining sector decline suggests China fears as the dominant factor rather than just oil prices. While the short-term market reaction has been painful, mispricings create opportunities. The document advocates a balanced approach of assessing risks and opportunities rather than reacting to short-term volatility.
Are the good times here to stay or are we hearing the Sirens’ call? Since 2008, investors have been on an odyssey. Gradually, stock markets have managed to recover from the disastrous carnage precipitated by the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. It has been an uneven path back to current market levels as there have been many occasions when it appeared that the fragile recovery would be stymied by bickering politicians, slowing emerging economies, deflationary pressures, regulatory zeal, civil unrest in the Middle East, over spent consumers, etc
After the global financial crisis, the global banking industry will undergo significant changes due to new regulations. Growth and profitability for banks will likely decline as equity ratios increase. Lean years are ahead for US banks as revenue growth may remain low due to reduced lending. Private equity experienced booms and busts with the economic cycle, riding high during expansions but seeing deal volumes drop sharply during recessions. The industry is starting to see signs of recovery in 2010 in both developed and emerging markets like India.
No bubble trouble; stocks are still reasonably priced. This credit cycle has unique characteristics that continue to make high-yield bonds attractive. Interest-rate volatility poses greater risk than higher rates themselves.
Can Small Cap Stocks Weather the Storm?Susan Langdon
This document summarizes research analyzing whether small cap stocks are well positioned to weather an economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The research finds that small cap companies' financial characteristics, such as leverage, leading into the crisis were consistent with long-term trends. Historical data also shows no relationship between the rate of small cap company delistings and relative small cap stock performance. While small caps may be more vulnerable operationally, market prices already reflect expectations about future cash flows, including recession impacts. Overall, the research finds that small cap stocks can still deliver higher expected returns even during an economic downturn. Investors are thus advised to maintain a diversified portfolio including small cap stocks.
The S&P 500 finished 2018 in negative territory for the first time since 2008, down -4.6% for the year. Volatility increased significantly across global markets as economic growth moderated and trade tensions rose. The CBOE Volatility Index increased 130% in 2018 compared to 78% in 2008, indicating a more turbulent decline. Investor unease over trade and monetary policy contributed to the rise in volatility, exemplified by an 8% market fall following the Federal Reserve's signal of slightly more aggressive rate hikes than expected in 2019.
The document discusses Ireland's economy and the global financial crisis. It analyzes Ireland's economic performance over different stages, compares Ireland's experience to other countries like Japan, and outlines lessons learned. It recommends that Ireland focus on competitiveness, intangible infrastructure like education, and nurturing new industries to drive growth over the next decade as it recovers from the crisis.
The document provides a quarterly investment outlook and discusses recent volatility in financial markets. It notes that sentiment has been swinging between irrational optimism and excessive pessimism. While most equity markets have rebounded in recent months, bond prices have also risen due to deflation fears. The document discusses the debate around whether the threats are inflation or deflation and argues that subdued growth does not necessarily mean deflation will take hold. It outlines some areas where investment opportunities still exist, such as global equity income funds and Japanese equities, and concludes by emphasizing the need for diversification given the current environment of low predictability.
After the storm- Global Financial Crisis 27 aug 2010Gaurav Sharma
Global Financial Order - Reasons for Crisis, Current Status, The BIG Shifts- Public Debt, Global De-leverage, Wealth Concetration & Creation.
Talk Delivered at Fore School Of Management, new Delhi
After the storm- Global Financial Crisis 27 aug 2010
The Advisory_Sept2016
1. SEPTEMBER 2016
DEFENSE,
OFFENSE
Amid rising economic and
political risk worldwide,
investors need to shield
against volatility while
staying alert for new
opportunities.
AT THE READYp. 2
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
HUNGERING FOR YIELD p. 5
FIXED INCOME
ON TARGET p. 6
DEFENSE INDUSTRY
SWEET SPOT p. 8
PRIVATE CREDIT
SHAPING A LEGACY p. 10
MULTI-GENERATIONAL PLANNING
2. 2 T H E A D V I S O R Y S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 6
INVESTMENTOUTLOOK
hield or sword? More so than any
other time since the financial crisis
we believe that a winning investment
portfolio today needs a thoughtful
focus on both.
As rising economic and political
risk fuels market volatility worldwide, investors
need to maintain adequate liquidity, stability and
diversification to shield against any protracted
economic downturn. At the same time, they should
be alert to the investment opportunities that emerge
amid turbulence, knowing that companies create
value, and innovation and entrepreneurship generate
wealth, even amid severe instability.
The causes for uncertainty are numerous:
aggression by ISIS, weakening global growth,
concerns the European Union will unravel, declining productivity,
stagnant real incomes and an increasing public hostility toward
globalization, or the free flow of capital, goods and people
worldwide. Additionally, political uncertainty has increased
with rising nativism and protectionism, and the reassertion of
national borders in countries including the U.S., U.K., France and
Germany. Policy built on these ideas threatens growth, and could
gradually erode the economic and political underpinnings for post-
World War II prosperity.
As a result, our evaluation of possible scenarios suggests that the
range of positive and negative outcomes has widened during the
past year. Although our analysis may sound dour, we see plenty of
reason to believe that over the long term, investment markets can
still generate returns for investors.
Innovation and dynamism are alive and well despite several
years of low economic growth. There have been tremendous
S
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
At The ReadyRising political and economic risk during the past year has widened
the range of possible positive and negative scenarios for financial
markets. Consequently, investors need to build a solid defensive
position while seizing opportunities that arise amid the instability.
Energy
16.9
14.1
9.9
3.0
5.2
2.7
0.6
11.0
23.2
6.5
Technology
Materials
Cons.Dis.
Cons.Staples
Utilities
Russell1000Index
Industrials
HealthCare
Financials
Sidelined
Leaders
Shares in technology,
health care and other
sectors commonly
associated with strong
earnings growth have
lagged this year as
investors snapped up
defensive, dividend-
oriented stocks, and rising
commodity prices buoyed
cyclical companies such
as energy.
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
TOTAL RETURN, RUSSELL 1000®
INDEX SECTORS
(AS OF 07/31/2016)
TotalReturn(%)
EARNINGS GROWERS DEFENSIVECYCLICAL
3. T H E A D V I S O R Y S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 6 3
ED CHADWYCK-HEALEY
Head of International
Private Clients
BY TAYLOR GRAFF
Head of Asset Allocation
Research
advances in worldwide communications, medicine
and computing power, and some promising recent
indicators such as gains in U.S. consumption, wages,
equities and housing prices. History has shown
that stock markets can still produce returns during
periods of economic and political turmoil such as
the 1940s and 1970s.
Looking ahead, for our base-case scenario we
see inflation remaining moderate and most major
economies continuing to grow at a modest pace.
Still, with short-term volatility likely to persist, we
recommend that investors build a solid defensive
position through:
An ample liquidity bucket. Given the potential
catalysts for an adverse period, we believe investors
should maintain and regularly replenish a pool of
cash to cover immediate expenses. An adequate
operating account helps to ensure that an investor
will not need to make ill-timed sales of securities to
meet routine outlays during times of severe volatility
such as the aftermath of the U.K. vote in June to
leave the European Union.
High-quality, intermediate-duration bonds.
These securities provide diversification from equities
and yield substantially more than cash. Over the
medium term, intermediate-duration bonds are
relatively insulated from losses, even with interest
rates historically low in the U.S. and U.K. An
investor can take advantage of this low-return, low-
risk option by “rolling down” a sloping yield curve.
For example, an investor can purchase a highly rated
10-year bond and hold it for three years, gaining
price appreciation as the security effectively becomes
a seven-year bond. This provides a meaningful boost
to return in a low-yield environment and cushions
a portfolio should interest rates begin to rise. (We
foresee a limited risk of interest rates moving
significantly higher from current levels.)
These two steps would help investors in the event of an adverse
outcome. After building a bulwark against risk, investors can
confidently consider going on the offensive—selectively seizing
opportunities that arise amid the instability through purchases of:
Stocks with potential for earnings acceleration. In reaction
to volatility and low yields, investors this year have pushed up
the prices of defensive, low-growth, dividend-oriented stocks in
consumer staples, utilities and telecommunications. In addition,
rising commodity prices have buoyed shares in cyclical sectors such
as energy, materials and industrials. Meanwhile, sectors known for
their potential earnings growth have lagged, as shown by the chart
on page 2. We are looking very carefully for opportunities in this
growth arena, which includes technology, financials, health care
and consumer discretionary stocks.
The boom in cloud computing, which has driven the share prices
of Amazon, Microsoft and Google in recent years, underscores
the abiding value of innovation. Maintaining liquidity allows a
portfolio manager to snap up new opportunities such as General
Dynamics, whose shares have risen 14% this year as of September
6. (Please see the article on page 6.)
U.S. small-cap stocks. Compared with large caps, small-cap
companies generally sell at a lower price-to-sales ratio (1.1 versus
1.9 as of July 31) and generate profit margins with a greater upside
potential. Because of their more domestic focus, U.S. small caps
face milder headwinds from a strong dollar and from any weakness
in China or the global expansion. They would also be less vulnerable
to a decline in Europe’s post-Brexit vitality in our view.
High-yield bonds. The spread between the yield on benchmark
Treasuries and high-yield bonds remains above the historic average
even after narrowing on the recovery in commodity prices that
began in mid-February. Such bonds perform comparatively well
during periods of low growth and low inflation because companies
often operate at a pace that is sufficient for repaying debt but below
a level that would prompt an increase in interest rates. High-yield
bonds are especially attractive compared with developed-market
stocks, which currently sell at valuations above the historical
average and face headwinds to profitability from slowing global
growth and rising labor costs.
INVESTMENTOUTLOOK
4. 4 T H E A D V I S O R Y S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 6
a global depression, world war and the start of the U.S.-
Soviet nuclear arms race and Cold War—the S&P
500 Index rose at an average annual rate of about 9%.
During the 1970s—despite a toxic mix of low growth
and inflation, a more than ninefold surge in the price
of oil and a political crisis that culminated in the first
resignation by a U.S. president—the S&P 500 Index
increased at an annual average pace of about 6%.
This decade poses its own distinct set of economic
challenges, many of which are aftershocks from the
2008—2009 financial crisis. Declining productivity
among advanced economies has weakened global
growth. U.S. productivity during the second quarter
fell at a 0.5% seasonally adjusted rate, according to
the Labor Department. It was the third consecutive
declining quarter and the longest negative streak since
1979.
Central bank stimulus—including record-low
interest rates and unprecedented large-scale bond
buying by the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and
European Central Bank—has failed to kindle rapid
economic growth while posing new risks given the
unconventional nature of some of these efforts such as
negative interest rates.
Still, there are certain signs of strength that suggest
that current headwinds will probably not halt economic
growth. Business creation and innovation are strong.
Applications to the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office
nearly doubled from 2000 until 2015 to 630,000. Also,
market economies since the implosion of mortgage
finance last decade have shown resilience and renewed
dynamism, with the U.S. economy alone creating 14
million jobs.
No matter how dire or shrill the media’s message
may become, we will remain committed to helping
our clients find the right balance between risk and
opportunity, and focus on their long-term goals.
INVESTMENTOUTLOOK
CURRENT HEADWINDS WILL
PROBABLY NOT HALT ECONOMIC
GROWTH.”
The performance of high-yield bonds during the past two
years underscores how periods of turmoil open up opportunities
for sizable gains. During the boom in U.S. shale oil production
early this decade, energy companies found ample demand for
high-yield debt among investors who believed oil would remain
above $100 per barrel. The value of energy-related bonds grew to
20% of the high-yield market.
As the price of oil began to drop in 2014, investors in high-
yield credit grew increasingly concerned about default risk
among energy companies. Market jitters increased in mid-2015
amid signs that growth was slowing in large economies—most
significantly, China. (From June 2014 until February 2016, the
oil price plunged 75%.)
Our analysis showed that default rates were unlikely to rise
significantlyamongissuersofhigh-yielddebtwithnoinvolvement
in energy. So when the high-yield market declined in September
2015 and February 2016, we stepped up allocations to such
credit. This year through July 31, high-yield bonds as measured
by the Barclays High Yield Index rose 12%, a meaningful gain
on a risk/return basis compared with the 7.7% return for the
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. (Please see the table below.)
While building a buffer against volatility, investors should
remember that stocks have generated sizable long-term gains even
during the most tumultuous decades. During the 1940s—despite
TOTALRETURNS
(asof7/31/2016)
3-MONTH
RETURN
YTD
RETURN
3-YEAR RETURN
(Annualized)
Large-Cap U.S. Equities
S&P 500®
Index
5.8% 7.7% 11.1%
Small-Cap U.S. Equities
Russell 2000®
Index
8.3% 8.3% 6.7%
Developed Int’l. Equities
MSCI EAFE®
Index
0.6% 0.4% 2.0%
Emerging-Markets Equities
MSCI Emerging Markets®
Index
5.2% 11.8% -0.3%
Inv.-Grade Fixed Income
Barclays Aggregate Bond Index
2.5% 6.0% 4.2%
High-Yield Fixed Income
Barclays High Yield Index
4.3% 12.0% 4.5%
Commodities
Bloomberg Commodity Index
-1.4% 7.3% -12.6%
Lower Risk, Higher Return
The total return of high-yield bonds this year has outpaced the gain
of the Standard & Poor’s 500®
Index as of July 31.
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
5. T H E A D V I S O R Y S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 6 5
LYN WHITE, CFA
Credit Analyst
he rush by investors had all the hallmarks of a
bond market panic. When the U.K. voted on
June 23 to leave the European Union, yields on
the benchmark 10-year Treasury note plunged
to a record low of 1.32%.
Yet fear that the EU will unravel was not the
only impulse driving investors. Opportunism also fueled much
of the buying—the yield on investment-grade corporate bonds
fell more than the yield for Treasuries.
Investors today hunger for yield as interest rates worldwide
sink toward or below zero. Their craving has belied longstanding
predictions that the end to the 30-year bull market in fixed-
income securities is imminent. In fact, investment-grade bonds
rose 5.9% during the year ended July 31, according to the
Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, outperforming other major
asset classes including equities in both developed nations and
emerging markets. Given that this trend is both unpredictable
and unprecedented, we are maintaining our focus on buying
bonds through a bottom-up analysis of each security rather than
on a top-down forecast on the direction of interest rates.
Recent history suggests that interest rates should not be so
low. The outlook for the U.S. economy is brighter today than in
2009, when 10-year Treasuries hovered around 3.2%. Unlike in
2011—2012, Greece is not on the verge of default and a handful
of European countries do not require bailouts. Moreover, the
Federal Reserve is not artificially pushing down interest rates by
purchasing securities. The central bank bought $4.5 trillion in
assets from 2008 until 2014 in an effort to spur borrowing and
revive growth.
Since the end of the Fed’s so-called quantitative easing,
however, weakening global demand has prompted a steady
slide in interest rates, with some yields in Japan and continental
Europe falling below zero. The start of bond purchase programs
by the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of
England (BOE) has reinforced the decline.
The BOE in August, attempting to avert a post-Brexit
recession, announced a cut to its main interest rate and plans
to buy corporate and government bonds. BOE policymakers
expect to reduce the rate again later this year. Capital
flows since the Brexit vote have highlighted that the
U.S. offers one of the only large, liquid bond markets
with positive yields spanning a variety of maturities
and credit qualities.
With the outlook for interest rates so cloudy, we have
outperformed by concentrating on the characteristics
of individual bonds. We look for corporate, municipal
or securitized debt with mispriced risk—allowing us to
gain when the price corrects. Here are some examples:
In March, we bought bonds issued by Campbell
Soup, a 146-year-old company with solid cash flow
but limited avenues for growth. Campbell bonds had
declined excessively amid weakness in the corporate
bond market. Investors had also overestimated its
credit risk. We would have been satisfied to simply
earn its 2.8% yield, but when the credit premium for
Campbell bonds fell, along with general interest rates,
we generated a solid gain.
So too was the case with Micron Technology, one
of the three top producers of memory semiconductors
used in servers, tablets and smartphones. We
purchased Micron bonds in June 2016, confident that
investors had overestimated its default risk because of
expectations that excessive supply would keep down
the price of semiconductors for an extended period. In
our view, Micron holds enough liquidity and generates
sufficient free cash flow to weather the cyclical slump.
Once the oversupply dries up, we believe our Micron
debt will perform especially well.
The mispricing of default risk can provide opportunity
regardless of whether the company in question makes
chicken noodle soup or the neural network for advanced
electronics. Especially in times when predicting the
direction for interest rates is particularly ill-advised, there
is steady income and upside potential to be made in bonds
with unappreciated potential.
BY TOM GRAFF, CFA
Head of Fixed Income
Hungering
For Yield
Investors snapping up U.S. securities are
seeking yield as much as safety.
FIXEDINCOME
T
6. 6 T H E A D V I S O R Y S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 6
DEFENSEINDUSTRY
On TargetGeopolitical instability and the end to nearly
a decade of budget austerity have improved
the prospect for defense industry stocks.
orget the Machiavellian notion
that the best defense is a
strong offense. Amid persistent
instability in geopolitics and
global finance, an investor in
equities can both limit risk and
find opportunity with a targeted
stake in the defense industry.
An investment in defense contractors—which
tend to perform independently of economic
growth—provides diversification that could help
buffer a portfolio against setbacks from a slowing
global expansion. Demand in the sector is robust,
with several governments boosting defense
spending in response to terrorism, tension or
outright conflict in East Asia, the Middle East
and Ukraine, and the increasing sophistication
of weapons produced by Russia and China.
“Western military technological superiority,
a core assumption of the past two decades, is
eroding,” according to John Chipman, chief
executive of the International Institute for
Strategic Studies (IISS). Most notably, Russia
and China are challenging Western democracies
with advances in ballistic and cruise missiles,
combat aircraft, air defense systems and armored
vehicles, according to London-based IISS,
a think tank focused on global security and
military conflict.
To be sure, some investors may not want to
own defense companies and the industry is
not without risks. Although stock prices for
arms makers tend to rise during an election
year as candidates talk up national security,
such jawboning does not prevent post-election
cutbacks in defense in response to public
pressure for austerity. Low oil prices may also
inhibit demand from some of the world’s biggest
F
arms importers such as Saudi Arabia. Moreover, low correlation with
the economy means that defense industry stocks would probably lag
other industries during a boom. In our view, though, these risks will
not meaningfully halt the industry’s tailwinds:
Regional tensions. China, North Korea, Russia and Iran show no
signs of scaling back ambitions to build their regional clout. Despite
a recession, Russia expanded defense spending last year at a faster rate
than any other major military power. Its $65.6 billion budget for 2015
equaled roughly 5% of gross domestic product, according to IISS.
From 2009 until 2015, China annually boosted its defense budget by
$10 billion to $15 billion, spending $146 billion last year.
Rearming democracies. In response, the U.S., Europe and major
weapons importers, including India, Japan and South Korea, are
stepping up spending. For fiscal year 2016, the U.S. increased its
defense budget for the first time in eight years. The Pentagon, which
accounts for more than 80% of arms makers’ revenue, plans to boost
its discretionary budget authority by 4.4% to $585.2 billion in fiscal
year 2021, from $560.4 billion in fiscal year 2015. Many European
countries have restored military outlays on a growth trajectory, while
Japan and South Korea have announced plans to buy several squadrons
of F-35 jet fighters.
“I can’t think of a time when our international pipeline of
opportunities was more robust than it is today,” according to Tom
Kennedy, CEO of Raytheon, maker of torpedoes, laser-guided bombs
and the Patriot missile defense system. International sales during the
second quarter surged 8%, Kennedy said in a July 28 conference call
with analysts.
Steady spending. Growth in defense spending is comparatively
transparent and predictable—in the U.S., post-World War II cycles
have lasted as long as nine years. The Pentagon also breaks down
its budget into line items, enabling multiyear projections of revenue
growth for companies focused on specific weapons programs.
Arms makers on average offer a 1.75% dividend and free cash flow
yield of 6.5%, which exceeds the amount for most other industrial
companies, including the free cash flow yield of 5% at 3M and 5.2%
at Danaher. Among major defense contractors, General Dynamics
leads the pack with a dividend yield of 2% and a free cash flow yield
of 7% for fiscal year 2017.
7. T H E A D V I S O R Y S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 6 7
DEFENSEINDUSTRY
BY ADI PADVA
Equity Research Analyst
General Dynamics is benefiting from stepped up funding for the
construction of U.S. destroyers and Virginia-class nuclear-powered
attack submarines. It is also developing a replacement for Ohio-
class ballistic missile submarines, which were first commissioned
in 1981. An order backlog totaling 19,000 for the company’s
combat vehicles—including the eight-wheel Stryker and the
Abrams battle tank—is equivalent to 3.4 times annual production
as of December.
General Dynamics sells at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, which
is meaningfully lower than the average of its rivals focused only on
defense: 18. The discount stems largely from investor pessimism
over the company’s Gulfstream jet business. Orders for business
jets from corporations and affluent individuals have declined in
recent years, largely because of weakness in emerging markets,
especially Russia and China, where demand had been strong.
Orders waned partly because of an anti-corruption campaign in
China and financial sanctions against individuals
allegedly backing efforts to destabilize Ukraine.
We believe the decline in demand for the
company’s large-cabin business jets—widely
deemed to be the top in the industry—will probably
be shorter than most investors anticipate. Indeed,
we are hoping that shares of General Dynamics will
rise as the company rolls out two new models of
high-end jets and continues to gain market share.
A two-year backlog for the Gulfstream G-650, the
company’s flagship aircraft pictured on page 6, also
mitigates some of the downside risk.
In a time of persistent geopolitical tensions, we
believe that defense industry stocks offer the prospect
for meaningful gains and a countercyclical buffer
against weakening global economic growth.
Different
Drumbeat
Shares in the defense
industry offer an
opportunity for portfolio
diversification, with the
Pentagon’s budget and
U.S. industrial production
moving independently
during the past 35 years.
12/1/1980
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
6/1/1982
12/1/1983
6/1/1985
12/1/1986
6/1/1988
12/1/1989
6/1/1991
12/1/1992
6/1/1994
12/1/1995
6/1/1997
12/1/1998
6/1/2000
12/1/2001
6/1/2003
12/1/2004
6/1/2006
12/1/2007
6/1/2009
12/1/2010
6/1/2012
12/1/2013
6/1/2015
U.S. Defense Budget, Indexed Industrial Production, Indexed
COMPARISON OF U.S. DEFENSE BUDGET WITH INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(12/01/1980—06/01/2015)
CumulativeGrowthIndexedto100
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
8. 8 T H E A D V I S O R Y S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 6
ometimes it pays for investors to
find sources of income outside the
conventional public channels for fixed
income securities. Take private credit,
for example. With interest rates at
record lows and many publicly traded
bonds and stocks approaching historically high
valuations, private credit has become increasingly
attractive to investors because of its total return
prospects, steady income and role in diversification.
Gearedtomiddle-marketcompanies,privatecredit
encompasses direct lending, mezzanine finance and
distressed debt. It also typically features stricter
covenants and larger collateral than many other
fixed income securities issued on public markets.
Historically, investors have been compensated for
private credit’s relative illiquidity with income that
has exceeded the yields on levered bank loans or
high-yield bonds by about 2 to 4 percentage points.
The market for private credit is a growing
alternative to traditional fixed income. The supply
of capital is high, with private debt fund managers
holding a record $199 billion available for private
credit as of June 30, 2016, a 173% surge from $72.9
billion in 2006, according to Preqin. This has been
driven by steady growth in private debt fundraising
during the past 10 years.
Demand is also robust. The current wave of private
credit resurgence sprung from the 2008—2009
financial crisis as the banking industry retreated
from many kinds of traditional lending after the
enactment of stricter regulation under the Dodd-
Frank Act and the global banking accord known
as Basel III. Companies with EBITDA ranging
from $50 million to $100 million found difficulty
obtaining financing from conventional lenders, so
they turned to hedge funds and other nontraditional
sources of “shadow banking.”
S
The comparatively high yields of private credit gain luster during
periods of unusual volatility in public bond markets such as today.
Sellers of private credit offer a “one-stop shop” for buy-and-hold
fixed income investments, compared with the uncertainty of
pricing and demand in the publicly syndicated markets.
For an investor*, private credit can help diversify a portfolio
while complementing other fixed income components such as
investment-grade and high-yield bonds. In addition, unlike private
equity, private credit can generate income almost immediately.
Investors can soon begin receiving income based on current cash
yield and up-front fees, which are loan origination fees paid by
the borrower. In contrast, the distributed returns on conventional
private equity usually kick in after several years, tracing what is
known as a “J-curve.”
Moreover, private credit offers opportunities for additional
returns, including through prepayment penalties and payable-
in-kind interest, a non-cash periodic payment that increases the
principal amount of the security based on the amount of the
interest. In some cases, investors can also gain equity ownership.
Still, private credit is not without potential downsides, including
default risk. The earnings of small businesses can be volatile, posing
the possibility of late payment or unpaid debts. Also, private credit
is often structured as a long-term investment with lock-ups ranging
from five to 10 years. Moreover, while posing less risk than private
equity, private credit is likely to provide a lower return.
Sweet SpotPrivate credit can offer earlier distributions than private equity and
higher yields than most publicly traded securities.
PRIVATECREDIT
HISTORICALLY, INCOME FROM PRIVATE CREDIT
HAS EXCEEDED THE YIELDS ON LEVERED
BANK LOANS OR HIGH-YIELD BONDS BY
APPROXIMATELY 2 TO 4 PERCENTAGE POINTS.”
* Private credit may be only available to Qualified Purchasers and/or Accredited Investors.
9. T H E A D V I S O R Y S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 6 9
BY MEERA PATEL, CFA
Director of Private
Investment Research
Nevertheless, with careful attention to risk,
we believe that private credit can serve within a
balanced portfolio as a high-yielding complement
to conventional equity and fixed income securities.
We encourage clients to view private credit as an
opportunistic asset with low liquidity offering steady
growth.
To achieve an optimal risk/return balance, we
have invested in asset managers that have performed
comparatively well in a variety of credit conditions:
Crescent Capital Group. Crescent Mezzanine is
a U.S. middle- and upper-middle market mezzanine
debt investor focused on companies with EBITDA
ranging from about $50 million to $150 million. The
companies are backed by private equity sponsors.
Since 1992, Crescent Mezzanine’s seven pools of
capital have invested approximately $10.7 billion in
183 mezzanine investments. The funds have generated a 13.8% net
internal rate of return (IRR)* with a cumulative annual default
rate of less than 1%. We recently invested in Crescent Mezzanine
Partners VII, a 2016 vintage fund. (Mezzanine debt is the middle
layer in a company’s capital structure that is junior to secured
senior debt and senior to equity.)
Yukon Partners. Founded in 2008, Yukon Partners is a U.S.
mezzanine investor focused on companies with EBITDA ranging
from about $10 million to $30 million and backed by private
equity sponsors. Yukon targets 85% of its portfolio to mezzanine
capital and 15% to equity-related structures. We invested in Yukon
Capital Partners II, a 2014 vintage fund.
Private credit can supplement a traditional portfolio of stocks
and bonds with expected current cash flow and potential returns
similar to equities. It occupies a preferred position in an issuer’s
capital structure and thereby offers a foothold against risk in a time
of high valuations and financial market instability.
JANE KORHONEN, CFA
Portfolio Manager
Less Liquid,
Higher Return
Private credit—ranging
from senior direct lending
to distressed credit—
offers a higher potential
return than publicly
traded fixed income
securities while requiring
a longer lock-up period.
5%
Iliquidity
10%
Net Yield/Return Potential
20%
Illiquidity,
10yearlock-up
Intermediate
Liquidity,
5-to7-year
lock-up
DailyLiquidity
COMPARATIVE RISK/RETURN OF PRIVATE CREDIT
* IRR is the aggregate, compound annual internal
rate of return on an investment based on partner-
ship inflows and outflows and the estimated value
of unrealized investments at a specific date. Net IRR
accounts for management fees and other fees—
including expenses and carried interest—owed to
the partnership manager. IRR is calculated as of
June 30, 2016. Please see page 12 for additional
information.
PRIVATECREDIT
Distressed
Credit
20+% IRR
Mezzanine
10-15% IRR
Unitranche
7-10% IRRSenior
Direct Lending
6-8% IRR
High Yield
Bonds
5-7%
Broadly
Syndicated
Large Bank
Loans 3-5%
Corporate
Bonds
2-4%
SOURCE: BROWN ADVISORY. The disclosure for alternative investments is available at:
http://www.brownadvisory.com/en/alternativeinvestmentdisclosures
10. 1 0 T H E A D V I S O R Y S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 6
Shaping a Legacy
Multi-generational planning, while best executed in prudent steps over long periods, sometimes
requires a review because of changes in regulation or financial markets. Such is the case today amid
consideration of changes to U.S. tax law.
STRATEGICADVISORY
plan to maximize a family’s
financial legacy usually saves the
most tax by leveraging the long-
term compounding of investments
outside of the taxable estate.
Adopting a program of planning
early, and monitoring that program, often brings the
best results. But saving tax is not the only objective—
clients also need to know that their financial security
is assured and that the long-term stewardship of
family assets will be wise.
Harmonizing these concerns is particularly
critical during times like today, when a change in law
speeds up the planning process. The U.S. Treasury
Department recently issued proposed regulations
that would virtually eliminate valuation discounts
on the transfer of shares in family businesses and
investmentpoolsheldinFamilyLimitedPartnerships
or Limited Liability Companies, collectively known
as FLPs.
The regulations are open to public comment
and subject to change, and will not be effective
before December at the earliest. Still, the possible
elimination of the discounts in just a few months
highlights the need for families with substantial
assets to revisit their estate plans now.
Of course this is not the first time that a change in
the law has spurred action. We undertook productive
planning in 2012 when it appeared that gift and
estate tax exemptions were about to shrink. Many
trusts funded that year have grown outside of the
grantor’s estate by 35% or more. During times like
today, when looming deadlines accelerate the pace
of decision-making, the fundamentals of prudent
planning still apply:
Emphasize the key facts for the client’s
consideration. Multi-generational planning can
involve technical transactions that bear little
resemblance to a client’s “real-world” experience. Explaining the
technicalities is often only a modest help to clients. They need a
practical understanding of what the proposed strategy will mean
to them, and that varies from one client to the next.
As previously mentioned, gifts of interests in FLPs are a
timely example. These entities provide centralized control and
management of a pool of family assets. Many clients who have
FLPs will soon be considering larger-than-usual gifts of FLP
interests to take advantage of valuation discounts while they are
still available.
To move forward, one client may need to understand her
ability to borrow from the FLP if necessary. Another client may
be interested in how the FLP can be used to engage her adult
children in family finances. A client making gifts of a family
business may be focused on the impact of succession planning. In
each instance the planning process needs to emphasize the aspects
of the transaction that are critical to the client. The same basic
process and considerations apply to other irrevocable components
of a multi-generational plan.
Build the plan over time. The best results are achieved with a
long-term, persistent approach. This iterative process allows clients
to build on past planning successes each year and take larger steps
as their circumstances permit. Sometimes the best way to start is
with annual cash gifts that are tax-free up to a current limit of
$14,000 per individual. By making those gifts to trusts, and/or by
transferring a share to a family entity like an FLP, clients can keep
control or devise a plan for stewardship that meets their approval.
FLPs can also be particularly helpful early in the construction
of a multi-generational plan. Interests in these entities can be
transferred in many ways without disrupting the management of
portfolios or control of the FLP. This ability to regularly transfer
assets can enhance the long-term estate planning process even if
valuation discounts go away.
We collaborate with our clients and their outside advisors to
generate and assess planning ideas. Our ongoing investment
dialogue with clients gives us insight into many aspects of
their lives, including their business assets, cash flow needs and
family dynamics. By listening to clients, we seek to marry our
A
11. T H E A D V I S O R Y S E P T E M B E R 2 0 1 6 1 1
MORGAN FOLUS
Strategic Advisory Analyst
understanding of their goals with our knowledge of strategies that
best fit their needs.
A recent conclusion of an estate tax audit marked the end of a
30-year planning process for a family we will call the Smiths. An
FLP funded with $30 million in 2002 was a key element of their
long-term planning process. Given low liquidity needs and a long
time horizon, the assets were invested for long-term growth.
By the end of 2013, when the surviving spouse died, the value
of the FLP had expanded 2.6 times to $78 million and was largely
owned by trusts that were outside of the estate. By the end of
2015, the partnership value had risen to $90 million, or three
times its original amount. The entire partnership—along with
its future growth—is now permanently sheltered
from estate and gift tax in long-term trusts. A total
of $10.5 million in gift and estate taxes was paid in
connection with this planning. Absent the planning,
$39.2 million of federal and state estate taxes would
have been due at the surviving spouse’s death.
The savings for the Smiths illustrate the dramatic
benefits that can be achieved through a thoughtful
approach that avoids transactions made in haste and
aligns closely with a family’s goals for governance of
their assets over the long term.
BY EDWARD DUNN
Strategic Advisor
STRATEGICADVISORY
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
‘03‘02
First Death
Annual Exclusion Gifts to children and trusts for grandchildren
Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts funded
Sales to trusts
‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘12 ‘13‘11 ‘14 ‘15
Tax Savings
Toolbox
The Smith family saved
$28.7 million in taxes
by using the FLP to
make annual tax-free
gifts to trusts, fund
Grantor Retained
Annuity Trusts and sell
assets to trusts.
SAVINGS FROM MULTI-GENERATIONAL PLANNING
(2002—2015)
($millions)
FLP Market Value
Second Death
Tax Due:
With Planning,
$10.5 million;
Without Planning,
$39.2 million.
SOURCE: BROWN ADVISORY. THE ABOVE ILLUSTRATION IS BASED ON THE EVOLUTION OF A FAMILY’S
FLP FROM 2002 UNTIL 2015. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
12. OFFICE LOCATIONS
brownadvisory.com
brownadvisory@brownadvisory.com
The views expressed are those of the author and Brown Advisory as of the date referenced and are subject to change at any time based on market or other
conditions. These views are not intended to be and should not be relied upon as investment advice and are not intended to be a forecast of future events or
a guarantee of future results. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance and you may not get back the amount invested. The information
provided in this material is not intended to be and should not be considered to be a recommendation or suggestion to engage in or refrain from a particular
course of action or to make or hold a particular investment or pursue a particular investment strategy, including whether or not to buy, sell, or hold any of
the securities mentioned. It should not be assumed that investments in such securities have been or will be profitable. To the extent specific securities are
mentioned, they have been selected by the author on an objective basis to illustrate views expressed in the commentary and do not represent all of the
securities purchased, sold or recommended for advisory clients. The information contained herein has been prepared from sources believed reliable but is
not guaranteed by us as to its timeliness or accuracy, and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data. This piece is intended solely for our
clients and prospective clients, is for informational purposes only, and is not individually tailored for or directed to any particular client or prospective client.
The Russell 1000®
Index measures the performance of the large-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. It is a subset of the Russell 3000® Index
and includes approximately 1000 of the largest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The Russell 1000
represents approximately 92% of the U.S. market. The Russell 1000 Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased barometer for the
large-cap segment and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure new and growing equities are reflected. The Russell 2000®
Index measures the
performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe. The Russell 2000 is a subset of the Russell 3000®
Index representing approximately
10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap
and current index membership. The Russell 2000 Index is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely
reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set. Russell® and
Russell indexes are trademarks of the London Stock Exchange Group companies. (Source: Russell Investments) The Standard & Poor’s 500 ®
Index
represents the large-cap segment of the U.S. equity markets and consists of approximately 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S.
economy. Criteria evaluated include: market capitalization, financial viability, liquidity, public float, sector representation, and corporate structure. An
index constituent must also be considered a U.S. company. S&P 500 is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”), a
subsidiary of S&P Global Inc. The MSCI EAFE®
Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float‐adjusted market capitalization index that is designed
to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. MSCI Emerging Markets®
Index is a free float-adjusted
market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index consists
of the following 23 emerging market country indexes: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea,
Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Qatar, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey and United Arab Emirates. All MSCI indexes and products
are trademarks and service marks of MSCI or its subsidiaries. Barclays U.S. Corporate High-Yield Index measures the market of USD-denominated,
non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bonds. Securities are classified as high yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/
BB+/BB+ or below, excluding emerging market debt. The U.S. Corporate High-Yield Index was created in 1986, with history backfilled to July 1, 1983,
and rolls up into the Barclays U.S. Universal and Global High-Yield Indices. Barclays Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged, market-value weighted
index comprised of taxable U.S. investment grade, fixed rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate, asset-backed,
and mortgage-backed securities between one and ten years. Barclays Indices are trademarks of Barclays Bank PLC. The Bloomberg Commodity Index
(BCOM) is a broadly diversified index that allows investors to track commodity futures through a single, simple measure. The BCOM is composed of
commodities traded on U.S. exchanges, with the exception of aluminum, nickel and zinc, which trade on the London Metal Exchange (LME). BLOOMBERG is
a trademark and service mark of Bloomberg Finance L.P., a Delaware limited partnershp or one of its subsidiaries. One cannot invest directly in an index.
The cumulative annual default rate for Crescent refers to the amount invested of all mezzanine investments that experienced a payment
default on the mezzanine securities divided by the total amount invested by the predecessor portfolio, Fund I, Fund II, Fund III, Fund
IV, Fund V and Fund VI and further divided by the number of years since the first investment in the predecessor portfolio was made.
This communication and any accompanying documents are confidential and privileged. They are intended for the sole use of the addressee.
Any accounting, business or tax advice contained in this communication, including attachments and enclosures, is not intended as
a thorough, in-depthanalysis of specific issues, nor a substitute for a formal opinion, nor is it sufficient to avoid tax-related penalties.
Terms and definitions: Price-to-Sales Ratio is the ratio of the price per share of a company’s stock compared to its past 12 months sales. The Dividend
Yield is the amount a company annually pays out in dividends per share of common stock divided by its share price. Price-Earnings Ratio (P/E Ratio) is
the ratio of the price per share of a company’s stock compared to its per-share earnings.
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