Volatility returned to the markets as the S&P 500 fell 2% for the week due to concerns over the European debt crisis and slowing growth in China. Spain became the latest problem country in Europe, while China's economy expanded at its weakest pace in over three years. Additionally, weak earnings reports from several U.S. banks led to weakness in financial stocks. Conflicting economic data from the U.S. also contributed to uncertainty and market swings. The "quitters" indicator from the JOLTS report provided a positive signal about consumer confidence, despite a disappointing jobs report and decline in consumer sentiment surveys.
The stock market continued rising last week driven by optimism over a Greek bailout and better economic data. However, higher gas prices and tensions in the Middle East could impact consumer spending. In China, slowing housing prices following measures to boost lending have raised concerns. Surveys found Americans view $150,000 in annual income or $1 million in net worth as amounts needed to feel "rich", which has policy implications.
The document summarizes a weekly commentary from Hyre Weekly dated April 23, 2012. It discusses how corporate earnings in the US have overtaken concerns about the European debt crisis as the focus of investors. While most US companies reported better than expected earnings, earnings growth was only 3.7% compared to a year ago. Interest rates increased again in troubled European countries like Spain and Italy, suggesting their debt problems remain. The commentary concludes by noting the interconnection of global markets and how European problems could eventually impact the US.
The weekly commentary discusses the recent performance of the stock market and economy. It notes that Apple's strong earnings helped the S&P 500 gain 1.8% despite disappointing economic data from the US, Spain, and UK. The housing market continues to struggle with home prices at their lowest point since 2002, but sales have increased recently due to declining inventory levels. Overall the economy is growing modestly but not enough to indicate a clear direction.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined two major risks facing the US economy: 1) the ongoing Eurozone fiscal and banking crisis and its potential effects on the US, and 2) the unsustainable path of the US fiscal situation including the looming "fiscal cliff". While the US has little control over Europe, the fiscal cliff is within Congress's power to address. If no action is taken, the automatic spending cuts and tax increases could throw the economy back into recession according to estimates. Bernanke stated the Fed is ready to take further action if needed to support the recovery.
The document summarizes market volatility in 2011 and discusses the Chinese government's crackdown on freedom of speech through restrictions on social media. Specifically:
- The stock market has seen high volatility in 2011, with the VIX hitting a record high and large intraday swings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
- Investors have been frustrated by the lack of direction in uncertain markets affected by European debt problems and US budget issues.
- China limits freedom of speech to control social unrest, recently requiring real name registration and verification for users of the popular Weibo social media platform.
- The government fears social media could enable mass organization that leads to instability, as seen in the Arab Spring, given China's
The document summarizes economic and market data from early February 2012. It reports that January job growth and unemployment data surprised to the upside, pushing stock prices higher. Services sector growth also accelerated. However, housing prices continued to decline sharply from their 2006 peak. Interest rates on mortgages fell to a new record low. Overall, the economy appeared to be gaining momentum after a slowdown in late 2011, though questions remained about sustainability versus stimulus-driven growth.
Central banks around the world have created over $2.5 trillion since 2008 through quantitative easing programs. This involves banks creating money to purchase government and mortgage debt, with the goal of increasing money supply and stimulating the economy. However, low interest rates have resulted in a "stealth tax" on savers as interest earned is below inflation. While helping debtors, quantitative easing may be keeping the economy dependent on unsustainable monetary policy.
The document summarizes recent economic data and stock market performance. It notes that less than three weeks ago, the economy appeared to be weakening and falling into a new recession, but recent data on auto sales, retail sales, and job growth has been better than expected, helping the stock market rise over 11% in two weeks. However, the author cautions it is too early to say the economy has fully turned around and still has improvements to make before a full recovery.
The stock market continued rising last week driven by optimism over a Greek bailout and better economic data. However, higher gas prices and tensions in the Middle East could impact consumer spending. In China, slowing housing prices following measures to boost lending have raised concerns. Surveys found Americans view $150,000 in annual income or $1 million in net worth as amounts needed to feel "rich", which has policy implications.
The document summarizes a weekly commentary from Hyre Weekly dated April 23, 2012. It discusses how corporate earnings in the US have overtaken concerns about the European debt crisis as the focus of investors. While most US companies reported better than expected earnings, earnings growth was only 3.7% compared to a year ago. Interest rates increased again in troubled European countries like Spain and Italy, suggesting their debt problems remain. The commentary concludes by noting the interconnection of global markets and how European problems could eventually impact the US.
The weekly commentary discusses the recent performance of the stock market and economy. It notes that Apple's strong earnings helped the S&P 500 gain 1.8% despite disappointing economic data from the US, Spain, and UK. The housing market continues to struggle with home prices at their lowest point since 2002, but sales have increased recently due to declining inventory levels. Overall the economy is growing modestly but not enough to indicate a clear direction.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined two major risks facing the US economy: 1) the ongoing Eurozone fiscal and banking crisis and its potential effects on the US, and 2) the unsustainable path of the US fiscal situation including the looming "fiscal cliff". While the US has little control over Europe, the fiscal cliff is within Congress's power to address. If no action is taken, the automatic spending cuts and tax increases could throw the economy back into recession according to estimates. Bernanke stated the Fed is ready to take further action if needed to support the recovery.
The document summarizes market volatility in 2011 and discusses the Chinese government's crackdown on freedom of speech through restrictions on social media. Specifically:
- The stock market has seen high volatility in 2011, with the VIX hitting a record high and large intraday swings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
- Investors have been frustrated by the lack of direction in uncertain markets affected by European debt problems and US budget issues.
- China limits freedom of speech to control social unrest, recently requiring real name registration and verification for users of the popular Weibo social media platform.
- The government fears social media could enable mass organization that leads to instability, as seen in the Arab Spring, given China's
The document summarizes economic and market data from early February 2012. It reports that January job growth and unemployment data surprised to the upside, pushing stock prices higher. Services sector growth also accelerated. However, housing prices continued to decline sharply from their 2006 peak. Interest rates on mortgages fell to a new record low. Overall, the economy appeared to be gaining momentum after a slowdown in late 2011, though questions remained about sustainability versus stimulus-driven growth.
Central banks around the world have created over $2.5 trillion since 2008 through quantitative easing programs. This involves banks creating money to purchase government and mortgage debt, with the goal of increasing money supply and stimulating the economy. However, low interest rates have resulted in a "stealth tax" on savers as interest earned is below inflation. While helping debtors, quantitative easing may be keeping the economy dependent on unsustainable monetary policy.
The document summarizes recent economic data and stock market performance. It notes that less than three weeks ago, the economy appeared to be weakening and falling into a new recession, but recent data on auto sales, retail sales, and job growth has been better than expected, helping the stock market rise over 11% in two weeks. However, the author cautions it is too early to say the economy has fully turned around and still has improvements to make before a full recovery.
The document summarizes recent negative economic news and market declines in the US. It reported that housing prices, manufacturing activity, consumer confidence, and unemployment all weakened in recent months. The stock market declined for five straight weeks in response. However, some analysts believe this is just a temporary slowdown and not the start of a double-dip recession, citing factors like low interest rates and corporate profits. The document advocates for optimism about US innovation and future economic growth.
The document summarizes recent economic developments and market performance. It notes that while stock prices doubled from early 2009 lows, the underlying economy has seen only modest growth with issues like high unemployment and government debt. It discusses PIMCO's view that advanced economies will see sluggish growth and high unemployment for the next 3-5 years, while emerging markets prosper, which is playing out. The latest economic data is keeping policymakers up at night as they try to stimulate the economy amid an end to QE2 and fiscal policy difficulties in Congress.
- Stocks took a hit last week due to ongoing concerns about the European debt crisis, a potential economic slowdown in China, and JPMorgan's $2 billion trading loss.
- Investors are frustrated that after two years and 17 eurozone summits, the European debt issue is still not resolved and may be worse as options are running out.
- The US faces potential economic challenges including a presidential election and fiscal deadlines by the end of the year.
Spain requested a $125 billion bailout to rescue its failing banks as its economy struggles with high unemployment and recession. If Spain's financial troubles escalate, it could destabilize the entire eurozone economy. Meanwhile, Greece will hold a pivotal election that could lead to it leaving the eurozone, an unprecedented event that would plunge the region into uncharted territory. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated the Fed stands ready to take action if European and global economic problems worsen.
The document summarizes recent negative news headlines about weak global financial markets and slowing economies. While the headlines seem dire, the advisor argues they are designed primarily to generate readership rather than provide an accurate portrayal of the long-term economic situation. The advisor believes their role is to look beneath headlines and discern the real issues to help clients stay on track with their goals despite short-term market volatility.
The markets had a strong week with the S&P 500 and Dow posting their largest gains since December. Unemployment claims matched a four-year low and the Federal Reserve signaled it will keep interest rates low to support the economy. Meanwhile, Mongolia has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies due to its natural resources, but faces challenges in converting this wealth into long-term educational gains like more developed countries.
- The US added 227,000 new jobs in February and 1.2 million jobs over the past six months, the highest six-month total since 2006. However, unemployment remains elevated and long-term unemployment is near record levels.
- Since the stock market low on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 has risen over 100% while corporate revenues have barely increased due to widespread cost cutting, including large job cuts. Continued job growth may lead companies to add more staff and support revenue growth.
- US household net worth reached $58.5 trillion at the end of 2011, still $8.3 trillion below its 2007 peak, as the real estate and stock markets impact wealth. Households are
Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, two legendary investors, disagree on bonds. Buffett sees bonds as risky in times of inflation while Gross favors bonds in the short term due to low interest rates. Their views may differ based on timeframe, with Buffett looking 7-10 years out and Gross a couple years. Additionally, indexes may not fully reflect market performance due to decisions around their construction.
The fund returned -10.8% in February, underperforming its benchmark. The short equity book and long equity book both made negative contributions after currency hedging. Within the short book, negative contributions came from Anglo American, Las Vegas Sands, and Royal Dutch Shell. Within the long book, negative contributions came from Nokia, Sky, and Bank of America. Elsewhere, active currencies returned -0.4% while government bonds and commodities returned +0.1% and +1.4% respectively. The manager remains convinced markets will continue to struggle without credit expansion and believes central banks have limited options to address slowing growth and falling productivity.
The portfolio manager discusses the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund. They reiterate their commitment to maximizing value in the portfolio and returning capital to shareholders in a timely manner. Eight of the top ten holdings have restructured in the past two years, reducing debt levels. The manager believes the portfolio contains significant embedded value that will be realized as market conditions normalize and corporate events occur. They intend to provide transparency to shareholders through monthly fact sheets and quarterly commentary on the fund's website. The manager also discusses recent volatility in the high yield and distressed debt markets, noting that credit spreads spiked in 2015 but it is unclear if this will lead to recession or opportunity.
The document discusses uncertainty in the current economic situation and markets. It notes there is uncertainty in Washington over budget issues, the economy's recovery from recession, the value of the dollar, and the war on terrorism. As financial advisors, the author's firm tries to account for uncertainty by considering best and worst case scenarios and balancing investments. The document also notes that despite weak economic growth, corporate profits are at record levels, but middle-class spending remains stagnant, holding back stronger growth.
The stock market ended 2011 right where it started despite significant volatility. The S&P 500 opened and closed at 1,257.6 but saw daily swings totaling over 3,000 points. Key events in 2011 included the European debt crisis, falling interest rates, political upheaval in the Middle East, Apple's rise led by Steve Jobs, and natural disasters like the Japanese earthquake. Foreign markets declined more sharply than the flat U.S. market. Gold rose while commodities fell on the year.
The European Union summit helped fuel a stock market rally by delivering more fiscal integration steps than expected. While the second quarter saw stock market gains reduced due to concerns over Europe, the US economy, and the Federal Reserve, the S&P 500 is still up 8.3% for the year. Investors remain cautious watching the US presidential election and looming fiscal cliff at the end of 2012.
The document provides a weekly market commentary for February 27, 2012. It notes that the markets have been calm recently as fears have declined. The S&P 500 reached its highest level in over 3.5 years and volatility is low. However, it warns of potential risks on the horizon from rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in oil producing regions that could cause a market correction. The commentary emphasizes that investors should focus on long term trends rather than short term fluctuations.
The document discusses the performance of the Odey European Inc fund in December 2015. It summarizes the positive and negative contributions from various long and short equity positions. It then analyzes economic and market conditions, including concerns about bubbles in China, falling oil prices, and central banks' responses to risky lending behaviors through interest rate policies. The document warns that markets may be fragile given high valuations and falling corporate profits, and that a significant market correction is possible in the coming year.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
The document summarizes recent market contradictions and distortions that are contributing to investor risk aversion and confusion. Government interventions like stimulus programs, quantitative easing, and bailouts have generated unintended side effects in markets. Politicians debate the merits of intervention versus free markets. Falling stock prices may paradoxically reduce risk as valuations decline, setting up markets for better long-term returns according to some analysts. Overall, distortions and political debates are causing uncertainty, stagnation, and falling stock prices.
- Greece and Italy recently replaced their political leaders in hopes that new leadership can help calm financial markets and drive structural reforms.
- The new leaders in Greece and Italy, Lucas Papademos and Mario Monti respectively, are expected to help lead their countries out of debt crises.
- If the new leaders take swift action and gain credibility, it could help boost the markets. However, it remains to be seen if political changes in Europe will be enough to significantly improve the markets.
The markets finished lower for the week due to growing pessimism overshadowing some positive economic news. While Greece adopted an austerity program to receive bailout funds, concerns rose over the health of Italian banks and the overall condition of Europe's finances. In the US, durable goods orders and GDP estimates beat expectations but worries remained that the economy is slowing. The Federal Reserve also reduced its forecasts and concluded its quantitative easing program, raising uncertainty over its impact on markets.
- Growth in 2022 will moderate from 2021 levels as central banks and governments begin removing stimulus measures, but the economic recovery is still expected to continue with firm demand.
- Household balance sheets have significantly improved, increasing savings and wealth, which will support continued strong consumer spending. Government infrastructure spending plans will also support growth.
- Supply challenges are a greater concern than demand, as supply chains remain disrupted and key production hubs like China maintain COVID restrictions, which could keep inflation elevated for longer.
- Tight labor markets may also put upward pressure on wages, supporting consumer spending but challenging the view that inflation will remain low. Central banks are expected to withdraw stimulus gradually and are unlikely to aggressively raise rates in 2022
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered, unlike previous recessions where recovery took 2-3 years. Reasons for the slow recovery include financial crisis-related slowdowns, policy uncertainty, extended unemployment benefits, and euro crisis uncertainty. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually spark new hiring if companies begin spending on growth.
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow compared to previous recessions. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered. Possible reasons for the slow recovery include financial crises typically resulting in slow recoveries, policy uncertainty in Washington, extended unemployment benefits, and eurozone crisis uncertainty dampening business demand. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually provide a boost to hiring and the broader economy if companies begin spending more on new hires.
The document summarizes recent negative economic news and market declines in the US. It reported that housing prices, manufacturing activity, consumer confidence, and unemployment all weakened in recent months. The stock market declined for five straight weeks in response. However, some analysts believe this is just a temporary slowdown and not the start of a double-dip recession, citing factors like low interest rates and corporate profits. The document advocates for optimism about US innovation and future economic growth.
The document summarizes recent economic developments and market performance. It notes that while stock prices doubled from early 2009 lows, the underlying economy has seen only modest growth with issues like high unemployment and government debt. It discusses PIMCO's view that advanced economies will see sluggish growth and high unemployment for the next 3-5 years, while emerging markets prosper, which is playing out. The latest economic data is keeping policymakers up at night as they try to stimulate the economy amid an end to QE2 and fiscal policy difficulties in Congress.
- Stocks took a hit last week due to ongoing concerns about the European debt crisis, a potential economic slowdown in China, and JPMorgan's $2 billion trading loss.
- Investors are frustrated that after two years and 17 eurozone summits, the European debt issue is still not resolved and may be worse as options are running out.
- The US faces potential economic challenges including a presidential election and fiscal deadlines by the end of the year.
Spain requested a $125 billion bailout to rescue its failing banks as its economy struggles with high unemployment and recession. If Spain's financial troubles escalate, it could destabilize the entire eurozone economy. Meanwhile, Greece will hold a pivotal election that could lead to it leaving the eurozone, an unprecedented event that would plunge the region into uncharted territory. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated the Fed stands ready to take action if European and global economic problems worsen.
The document summarizes recent negative news headlines about weak global financial markets and slowing economies. While the headlines seem dire, the advisor argues they are designed primarily to generate readership rather than provide an accurate portrayal of the long-term economic situation. The advisor believes their role is to look beneath headlines and discern the real issues to help clients stay on track with their goals despite short-term market volatility.
The markets had a strong week with the S&P 500 and Dow posting their largest gains since December. Unemployment claims matched a four-year low and the Federal Reserve signaled it will keep interest rates low to support the economy. Meanwhile, Mongolia has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies due to its natural resources, but faces challenges in converting this wealth into long-term educational gains like more developed countries.
- The US added 227,000 new jobs in February and 1.2 million jobs over the past six months, the highest six-month total since 2006. However, unemployment remains elevated and long-term unemployment is near record levels.
- Since the stock market low on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 has risen over 100% while corporate revenues have barely increased due to widespread cost cutting, including large job cuts. Continued job growth may lead companies to add more staff and support revenue growth.
- US household net worth reached $58.5 trillion at the end of 2011, still $8.3 trillion below its 2007 peak, as the real estate and stock markets impact wealth. Households are
Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, two legendary investors, disagree on bonds. Buffett sees bonds as risky in times of inflation while Gross favors bonds in the short term due to low interest rates. Their views may differ based on timeframe, with Buffett looking 7-10 years out and Gross a couple years. Additionally, indexes may not fully reflect market performance due to decisions around their construction.
The fund returned -10.8% in February, underperforming its benchmark. The short equity book and long equity book both made negative contributions after currency hedging. Within the short book, negative contributions came from Anglo American, Las Vegas Sands, and Royal Dutch Shell. Within the long book, negative contributions came from Nokia, Sky, and Bank of America. Elsewhere, active currencies returned -0.4% while government bonds and commodities returned +0.1% and +1.4% respectively. The manager remains convinced markets will continue to struggle without credit expansion and believes central banks have limited options to address slowing growth and falling productivity.
The portfolio manager discusses the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund. They reiterate their commitment to maximizing value in the portfolio and returning capital to shareholders in a timely manner. Eight of the top ten holdings have restructured in the past two years, reducing debt levels. The manager believes the portfolio contains significant embedded value that will be realized as market conditions normalize and corporate events occur. They intend to provide transparency to shareholders through monthly fact sheets and quarterly commentary on the fund's website. The manager also discusses recent volatility in the high yield and distressed debt markets, noting that credit spreads spiked in 2015 but it is unclear if this will lead to recession or opportunity.
The document discusses uncertainty in the current economic situation and markets. It notes there is uncertainty in Washington over budget issues, the economy's recovery from recession, the value of the dollar, and the war on terrorism. As financial advisors, the author's firm tries to account for uncertainty by considering best and worst case scenarios and balancing investments. The document also notes that despite weak economic growth, corporate profits are at record levels, but middle-class spending remains stagnant, holding back stronger growth.
The stock market ended 2011 right where it started despite significant volatility. The S&P 500 opened and closed at 1,257.6 but saw daily swings totaling over 3,000 points. Key events in 2011 included the European debt crisis, falling interest rates, political upheaval in the Middle East, Apple's rise led by Steve Jobs, and natural disasters like the Japanese earthquake. Foreign markets declined more sharply than the flat U.S. market. Gold rose while commodities fell on the year.
The European Union summit helped fuel a stock market rally by delivering more fiscal integration steps than expected. While the second quarter saw stock market gains reduced due to concerns over Europe, the US economy, and the Federal Reserve, the S&P 500 is still up 8.3% for the year. Investors remain cautious watching the US presidential election and looming fiscal cliff at the end of 2012.
The document provides a weekly market commentary for February 27, 2012. It notes that the markets have been calm recently as fears have declined. The S&P 500 reached its highest level in over 3.5 years and volatility is low. However, it warns of potential risks on the horizon from rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in oil producing regions that could cause a market correction. The commentary emphasizes that investors should focus on long term trends rather than short term fluctuations.
The document discusses the performance of the Odey European Inc fund in December 2015. It summarizes the positive and negative contributions from various long and short equity positions. It then analyzes economic and market conditions, including concerns about bubbles in China, falling oil prices, and central banks' responses to risky lending behaviors through interest rate policies. The document warns that markets may be fragile given high valuations and falling corporate profits, and that a significant market correction is possible in the coming year.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
The document summarizes recent market contradictions and distortions that are contributing to investor risk aversion and confusion. Government interventions like stimulus programs, quantitative easing, and bailouts have generated unintended side effects in markets. Politicians debate the merits of intervention versus free markets. Falling stock prices may paradoxically reduce risk as valuations decline, setting up markets for better long-term returns according to some analysts. Overall, distortions and political debates are causing uncertainty, stagnation, and falling stock prices.
- Greece and Italy recently replaced their political leaders in hopes that new leadership can help calm financial markets and drive structural reforms.
- The new leaders in Greece and Italy, Lucas Papademos and Mario Monti respectively, are expected to help lead their countries out of debt crises.
- If the new leaders take swift action and gain credibility, it could help boost the markets. However, it remains to be seen if political changes in Europe will be enough to significantly improve the markets.
The markets finished lower for the week due to growing pessimism overshadowing some positive economic news. While Greece adopted an austerity program to receive bailout funds, concerns rose over the health of Italian banks and the overall condition of Europe's finances. In the US, durable goods orders and GDP estimates beat expectations but worries remained that the economy is slowing. The Federal Reserve also reduced its forecasts and concluded its quantitative easing program, raising uncertainty over its impact on markets.
- Growth in 2022 will moderate from 2021 levels as central banks and governments begin removing stimulus measures, but the economic recovery is still expected to continue with firm demand.
- Household balance sheets have significantly improved, increasing savings and wealth, which will support continued strong consumer spending. Government infrastructure spending plans will also support growth.
- Supply challenges are a greater concern than demand, as supply chains remain disrupted and key production hubs like China maintain COVID restrictions, which could keep inflation elevated for longer.
- Tight labor markets may also put upward pressure on wages, supporting consumer spending but challenging the view that inflation will remain low. Central banks are expected to withdraw stimulus gradually and are unlikely to aggressively raise rates in 2022
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered, unlike previous recessions where recovery took 2-3 years. Reasons for the slow recovery include financial crisis-related slowdowns, policy uncertainty, extended unemployment benefits, and euro crisis uncertainty. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually spark new hiring if companies begin spending on growth.
The jobs recovery from the 2007 recession has been painfully slow compared to previous recessions. Over 4 years after employment peaked, only half the jobs lost have been recovered. Possible reasons for the slow recovery include financial crises typically resulting in slow recoveries, policy uncertainty in Washington, extended unemployment benefits, and eurozone crisis uncertainty dampening business demand. However, record corporate profits and cash levels could eventually provide a boost to hiring and the broader economy if companies begin spending more on new hires.
The S&P 500 has risen 12.6% since early October due to a lack of bad news. Three pieces of news that could be considered lacking in bad news are: 1) 75% of companies reporting earnings so far this quarter have beaten estimates. 2) Economic news has generally supported the idea that the economy is not collapsing. 3) European leaders may finally take action to address the sovereign debt crisis. Whether this lack of bad news continues remains uncertain.
The document summarizes the reaction of markets to a recent agreement by European leaders to address the sovereign debt crisis. It notes that stock prices rose significantly as investors were relieved by the three-point deal involving Greek debt relief and boosting the bailout fund. However, details remain unclear and challenges loom with the U.S. debt panel deadline approaching. Overall investors were in a relief rally but surprises can still occur as with sudden market moves or unexpected weather, much like the forecasting abilities of analysts and meteorologists.
The stock market rose sharply in the first quarter of 2011, with the S&P 500 increasing 5.4%. Commodity prices also increased, driven in part by political instability in the Middle East, which caused oil prices to rise over 16% and settle above $100 per barrel. The US dollar continued to weaken against other major currencies during the quarter. Investor fear, as measured by the volatility index, ended the quarter flat despite events that caused spikes in concern during the period. Overall, strong economic growth and expected corporate earnings seemed to outweigh geopolitical and disaster related worries in the markets.
The document discusses rising consumer prices, including the price of coffee. It provides three reasons for higher coffee prices: increasing costs of fertilizer and farm goods, rising affluence in developing countries leading to higher demand, and adverse weather affecting coffee production. While core inflation remains low, food and energy prices are rising. The yield curve is also discussed as a potential indicator of future recessions.
The document discusses stock performance in 2011 and analyzes high-dividend stocks from the past. It finds that in 2011, stocks with the highest dividend yields were the only ones to experience positive returns, with gains of 10.4%, 6.4%, and 8.7% respectively. The document also examines "Nifty Fifty" stocks from the 1970s that were seen as guaranteed growth companies but have had varying performance over 40 years, with some like Eastman Kodak struggling in their transition to digital. Key lessons are that some iconic stocks remain so, promoting "one decision" stocks is not a sound strategy, and all stocks can decline to zero.
Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan who is known as one of the smartest bankers, revealed that the bank recently lost $2 billion on risky derivative bets. This loss shows that even experts can make mistakes, and provides three important lessons: keep strategies simple, closely monitor all investments, and remain humble, as even the smartest people can fail. The large loss damages JP Morgan's reputation of being well-managed during the financial crisis.
- The Federal Reserve announced it would sell short-term Treasury securities and buy longer-term securities to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy, which succeeded in lowering bond yields. However, the stock market declined 6.4% as fears grew of a Greek default and slowing global economic growth.
- While price appreciation gets more attention, dividends have accounted for about one-third of stock market returns over 80 years and allowed investors to benefit in both rising and falling markets. Receiving and reinvesting dividends added an average of 2.3% annually to S&P 500 returns over the past decade.
The document summarizes the strong performance of the stock market in the first quarter of 2012, with the S&P 500 rising 12% which was its best start since 1998. Analysts attributed the gains to an easing of Europe's debt crisis, a strengthening global economy, rising US consumer sentiment, and supportive Federal Reserve policy. However, some warn that the market could falter later in the year as it has in recent years, due to potential risks like renewed European debt issues or a slowing US economy.
Elections in France, Greece, and Germany could impact markets as voters chose candidates favoring changes over austerity. French and Greek voters rejected incumbent parties, bringing political uncertainty. This document discusses the economic issues facing Europe, including recession, high unemployment, and low business confidence. Traders who actively communicated with their network were more successful at "connecting the dots" of information and making profitable trades.
The Federal Reserve announced "Operation Twist" to lower longer-term interest rates by selling short-term Treasuries and buying long-term ones. While interest rates declined as intended, stocks fell over 6% due to fears of a Greek default, global financial crisis, slowing growth in China, and declining copper prices indicating weaker global growth. Dividends have provided over a third of the S&P 500's total return over 80 years and can enhance returns and provide stability, especially in a low interest rate environment.
Republicans and Democrats in Congress are struggling to reach an agreement to raise the federal debt ceiling before an August 2 deadline, which could trigger a default on US debt obligations. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers warned that a US debt default would cause widespread financial panic and uncertainty, similar to or even worse than the 2008 global financial crisis. While politicians recognize the risks, most analysts believe a last-minute deal will be reached to raise the debt ceiling and avoid default, though it may only provide a temporary solution.
Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit ratings of 9 eurozone countries including France and Spain. Most eurozone countries now have negative outlooks, indicating a risk of further downgrades. This underscores the ongoing economic problems in Europe. However, the US downgrade had little impact so far, and US investors are more focused on signs of economic momentum in the US than on European issues for now. Nevertheless, if the problems in Europe worsen significantly, it could negatively impact the US economy as well.
Central banks around the world coordinated actions to provide liquidity support to the global financial system in response to deteriorating liquidity conditions. This caused stock markets to soar as investors saw it as a sign that central banks will do what is needed to prevent the world economy from stalling. However, the actions only address short-term issues and do not solve the long-term problems of too much debt and too little growth faced by some countries. A long-term solution will require agreement on fiscal discipline from European political leaders.
Central banks around the world coordinated actions to provide liquidity support to the global financial system in response to deteriorating liquidity conditions. This caused stock markets to soar as investors saw it as a sign that central banks will take aggressive actions to prevent the world economy from stalling. However, the actions only address short-term issues and do not solve the long-term problems of too much debt and too little growth faced by some countries. A long-term solution will require agreement on fiscal discipline policies from European political leaders.
The document discusses the interconnectedness of global economies and markets. It notes that problems in countries like China can have worldwide repercussions. It also discusses the ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe weighing on US stock prices. While the US economy is performing reasonably well, its recovery remains fragile due to uncertainty around Europe's debt situation. The document advocates for international diversification given the declining dominance of the US in global stock market capitalization.
1. Hyre Weekly Commentary
April 16, 2012
The Markets
It‟s back. Volatility, that is.
Like a yo-yo, the market bounced around and the S&P 500 index ultimately ended down 2.0
percent for the week and 3.4 percent from this year‟s closing high, according to Reuters. Despite
the drop, the market is still showing a solid 9.0 percent gain for the year.
Once again, debt issues in Europe made headlines as Spain became the latest problem country.
That, along with some disappointing economic growth data from China, helped spark the volatile
week. Because of its massive size, any slowdown in China is closely watched by market
participants.
As a sign of the big swings this week, the Dow Jones Industrial closed the day up or down by at
least 100 points on four out of the five days last week, according to Barron‟s.
Highlights from the week included:
China‟s economy expanded at the weakest pace in over three years last quarter, missing
consensus economic forecasts.
Yields on debt in Spain jumped due to a weak debt auction, renewing fears that the
European debt crisis could start affecting the global markets again.
Several U.S. banks reported earnings that underwhelmed investors, resulting in weakness
in financial stocks.
U.S. inflation remained under control which may leave open the possibility for further
Federal Reserve intervention should economic data deteriorate.
Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Yahoo! Finance
The quarterly corporate earnings season is now underway so we wouldn‟t be surprised to see
more market volatility as investors digest the latest read on the health of corporate America.
2. Data as of 4/13/12 1-Week Y-T-D 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Standard & Poor's 500 (Domestic Stocks) -2.0% 9.0% 3.8% 16.9% -1.2% 2.1%
DJ Global ex US (Foreign Stocks) -1.0 7.4 -13.8 12.5 -5.1 5.1
10-year Treasury Note (Yield Only) 2.0 N/A 3.5 2.9 4.8 5.1
Gold (per ounce) 2.2 5.8 14.3 23.4 19.6 18.7
DJ-UBS Commodity Index -1.6 -0.9 -17.7 7.2 -4.4 3.8
DJ Equity All REIT TR Index -1.2 8.0 11.2 31.7 -0.7 9.5
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend)
and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the
three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the
historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron‟s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not
applicable.
THE “SHOVE IT” INDICATOR as highlighted by CNBC made a noteworthy gain in
February suggesting consumer confidence may be increasing. You‟re probably wondering,
“What in the world is the „shove it‟ indicator?” Well, every month the government conducts a
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or “JOLTS” for short. One of the data points in the
JOLTS report is the number of workers who quit their job as opposed to being laid off. And, in
February, for the first time since September 2008, the quitters were in the majority.
What does this mean? Generally speaking, people who quit their job are typically more confident
that there is another job waiting for them when they voluntarily leave a position. Nicholas Colas,
chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group says, “Quits go hand-in-hand with consumer
confidence.”
This positive JOLTS data point follows a disappointing government jobs report for the month of
March where only 120,000 new jobs were created. Also, the preliminary March reading of the
University of Michigan‟s consumer confidence survey showed a decline from the previous
month. Analysts had expected confidence to stay flat, according to International Business Times.
This conflicting economic data gave the bulls and the bears ample ammunition to bolster their
respective case. And, conflicting data like this may lead to a continuation of the yo-yo as
investors try to predict which direction the economy is headed.
Weekly Focus – Think About It
“Expectation is the root of all heartache.”
--William Shakespeare
Best regards,
Jim Hyre, CFP®
Registered Principal
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* The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in
general.
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks.
* The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the
National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System.
* Gold represents the London afternoon gold price fix as reported by www.usagold.com.
* The DJ/AIG Commodity Index is designed to be a highly liquid and diversified benchmark for the commodity futures market. The
Index is composed of futures contracts on 19 physical commodities and was launched on July 14, 1998.
* The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen
as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.
* The DJ Equity All REIT TR Index measures the total return performance of the equity subcategory of the Real Estate Investment
Trust (REIT) industry as calculated by Dow Jones
* Yahoo! Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.
* Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or to predict future
performance.
* Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.
* You cannot invest directly in an index.
* Past performance does not guarantee future results. mc101507
* This newsletter was prepared by PEAK for use by James Hyre, CFP®, registered principal
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Ave, Upper Arlington, OH 43221.
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referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that
the forgoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jim Hyre and not necessary those of RJFS or Raymond
James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a
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Jim Hyre, CFP®
Registered Principal
Raymond James Financial Services, Inc.
Member FINRA/SIPC
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