The document provides an overview and analysis of key market events and themes in the first quarter of 2018, including tariffs, technology, interest rates, and increased volatility. Tariffs imposed by the US administration aim to protect domestic industries but risk a trade war. Technology stocks declined due to company-specific issues, though the sector remains strong overall. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March and expects further hikes in 2018 as the economy remains healthy. Volatility rose in the first quarter as various pressures took hold in the market.
Corporate and shareholder sentiment towards MA has rebounded since the dark days of 2008. Low borrowing costs have coaxed many new buyers, including acquisitive Chinese conglomerates, into the market. The prices of prized assets have risen accordingly. It remains a sellers market in technology-driven deals, particularly in the consumer-goods, financial services, and media and telecommunications sectors.
Brent Woyat, a portfolio manager at OceanForest Investment Partners, provides a quarterly commentary on the capital markets and his investment outlook. He notes that while the media focuses on negative economic indicators, several business leaders including Warren Buffett, Steve Ballmer, and Jeff Immelt expressed optimism about long-term economic growth at a recent conference. Woyat also cites a McKinsey survey finding that most executives expect rising profits and hiring. Based on these positive views, Woyat remains bullish on the global economy and recommends clients maintain their full target equity allocations. He further discusses the quarterly performance of the firm's portfolio mandates, highlighting several holdings with double-digit returns.
This document discusses the benefits of international investing through diversification and exposure to higher growth rates abroad. It notes that international markets can experience different returns than the US market, potentially lowering overall portfolio risk. While international investing brings additional risks, these can be reduced through a diversified portfolio that includes both developed and emerging markets. The document advocates for a globally diversified portfolio for most investors.
The document provides an economic outlook report from May 2011. It discusses several topics:
1) Strong corporate earnings are driving the stock market higher, though interest rates will likely rise as quantitative easing ends.
2) High food and gas prices pose a risk to consumer spending, which could slow economic growth.
3) The large and growing US national debt poses challenges, as interest payments consume a significant portion of the budget and credit rating downgrades could increase interest rates.
The key theme of the report is whether emerging and developed economies will converge or diverge over the decade. It finds that convergence will continue in two areas: market structures and investment approaches. For market structures, 56% expect further convergence in areas like standard of living and market depth. For investment approaches, 32% expect convergence in cognitive aspects of investing, but less in intuitive aspects like buy-and-hold investing. Overall, the report examines whether investor perceptions of emerging markets are changing, what will drive asset prices in emerging and developed economies, and what asset classes will be in most demand.
- The document discusses the increased market volatility seen so far in 2016 due to concerns over China's economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and uncertainty around the pace of Fed interest rate hikes.
- It argues that investors should focus on long-term goals and plans rather than trying to predict short-term market movements, which are driven by factors like high-frequency trading and central bank actions.
- While short-term volatility may remain high, fundamental factors like company earnings growth and credit quality will still determine long-term investment returns; investors should stick to strategies focused on identifying attractive long-term value.
The document provides an outlook on the commercial real estate market in 2016. Some key points:
1) Fundraising remained strong in 2015 and the move toward larger funds continues, with opportunistic and value-added funds performing well. The search for opportunities continues as investors seek deals in new sectors.
2) Foreign investors remain attracted to the US market as a safe haven and are partnering with smaller US funds on secondary and tertiary market deals. Regulation A+ may provide a new avenue for real estate crowdfunding.
3) Data analytics and technology are starting to transform operations, while cybersecurity needs to become a higher priority as real estate assets become more connected.
4) The relentless
Corporate and shareholder sentiment towards MA has rebounded since the dark days of 2008. Low borrowing costs have coaxed many new buyers, including acquisitive Chinese conglomerates, into the market. The prices of prized assets have risen accordingly. It remains a sellers market in technology-driven deals, particularly in the consumer-goods, financial services, and media and telecommunications sectors.
Brent Woyat, a portfolio manager at OceanForest Investment Partners, provides a quarterly commentary on the capital markets and his investment outlook. He notes that while the media focuses on negative economic indicators, several business leaders including Warren Buffett, Steve Ballmer, and Jeff Immelt expressed optimism about long-term economic growth at a recent conference. Woyat also cites a McKinsey survey finding that most executives expect rising profits and hiring. Based on these positive views, Woyat remains bullish on the global economy and recommends clients maintain their full target equity allocations. He further discusses the quarterly performance of the firm's portfolio mandates, highlighting several holdings with double-digit returns.
This document discusses the benefits of international investing through diversification and exposure to higher growth rates abroad. It notes that international markets can experience different returns than the US market, potentially lowering overall portfolio risk. While international investing brings additional risks, these can be reduced through a diversified portfolio that includes both developed and emerging markets. The document advocates for a globally diversified portfolio for most investors.
The document provides an economic outlook report from May 2011. It discusses several topics:
1) Strong corporate earnings are driving the stock market higher, though interest rates will likely rise as quantitative easing ends.
2) High food and gas prices pose a risk to consumer spending, which could slow economic growth.
3) The large and growing US national debt poses challenges, as interest payments consume a significant portion of the budget and credit rating downgrades could increase interest rates.
The key theme of the report is whether emerging and developed economies will converge or diverge over the decade. It finds that convergence will continue in two areas: market structures and investment approaches. For market structures, 56% expect further convergence in areas like standard of living and market depth. For investment approaches, 32% expect convergence in cognitive aspects of investing, but less in intuitive aspects like buy-and-hold investing. Overall, the report examines whether investor perceptions of emerging markets are changing, what will drive asset prices in emerging and developed economies, and what asset classes will be in most demand.
- The document discusses the increased market volatility seen so far in 2016 due to concerns over China's economic slowdown, falling oil prices, and uncertainty around the pace of Fed interest rate hikes.
- It argues that investors should focus on long-term goals and plans rather than trying to predict short-term market movements, which are driven by factors like high-frequency trading and central bank actions.
- While short-term volatility may remain high, fundamental factors like company earnings growth and credit quality will still determine long-term investment returns; investors should stick to strategies focused on identifying attractive long-term value.
The document provides an outlook on the commercial real estate market in 2016. Some key points:
1) Fundraising remained strong in 2015 and the move toward larger funds continues, with opportunistic and value-added funds performing well. The search for opportunities continues as investors seek deals in new sectors.
2) Foreign investors remain attracted to the US market as a safe haven and are partnering with smaller US funds on secondary and tertiary market deals. Regulation A+ may provide a new avenue for real estate crowdfunding.
3) Data analytics and technology are starting to transform operations, while cybersecurity needs to become a higher priority as real estate assets become more connected.
4) The relentless
The document discusses the need for ICT corporations to shift their focus from financial systems to economics in light of global economic shifts. It notes the job losses in the ICT sector, especially at Microsoft, and argues economics should guide business decisions more than politics. The US economy is analyzed and found to have significant debt issues, calling into question its status as sole world leader. The document advocates for ICT companies like Microsoft to assess local markets, focus on the bottom two thirds of consumers, and develop strategies guided by economic principles rather than just maintaining the same approaches.
Brian Hogan is president of Fidelity Investments' equity division, overseeing $850 billion in assets. He discusses Fidelity's outlook for 2014, seeing earnings growth of around 7-8% resulting in around a 10% return for the S&P 500 before factoring in changes to its price/earnings multiple. Hogan believes active managers will have an advantage in the next 3-4 years as correlations between stocks decrease, making it more of a "stock picker's market." He cites several standout Fidelity portfolio managers who have outperformed benchmarks by wide margins for decades.
This newsletter from Northland Wealth Management provides updates on financial markets and planning strategies. It discusses the uncertainty caused by Brexit and the US election, and how concentrated positions in single assets can be addressed. It also describes incentive trusts that can motivate positive behavior in beneficiaries. Northland Wealth believes alternative investments can complement traditional portfolios by improving risk-return, and attended a conference on the evolving financial industry.
Over the last year or so, there has been much talk about another impending recession and how it could impact channel management. The recession theory is based upon historical trends, which suggest business cycles tend to last around five to seven years each. That means every five to seven years we experience some sort of a recession. Eventually the economy recovers, and then something else happens to triggers another recession.
Dr. Michael Hasenstab provides an analysis of factors that will differentiate the recoveries of various countries from the global economic crisis. He believes emerging markets will recover more quickly than developed markets due to emerging markets' stronger domestic economies and less reliance on exports, more effective policy responses, and avoidance of issues like high public debt and private sector leverage plaguing developed nations. Recent economic trends support this view, with emerging markets showing stronger growth, job creation, and capital inflows. Hasenstab also discusses opportunities in foreign exchange and bond markets stemming from divergence in recoveries.
This document provides an outlook on the retail investment market for 2018. It finds that retail investments continue to outperform, with vacancy rates at their lowest levels since the 1990s and corporate profits hitting records. The coming year is expected to see exceptional dynamics for retail investors, as a strong economy and low unemployment drive increased consumer spending and demand for retail space. Single-tenant retail investments have been particularly favored, though rising interest rates could partially offset increased investment from tax law changes. Overall metrics point to continued strength in the retail sector in 2018.
Cushman & Wakefield 2016 Capital Markets OutlookMatthew Marshall
The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016. Some key points:
- Global property investment volumes fell 2.4% in 2015, the first decline in 6 years, driven by lower volumes in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- The US saw the strongest growth at 25% and accounted for 39% of global volumes. Yields fell globally but recovery has been uneven by region.
- In 2016, core assets in major cities will remain popular. Demand will need to spread to new sectors and markets to find opportunities. Emerging markets may stabilize later in the year.
- Structural changes like
- The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016.
- Global property investment volumes fell slightly for the first time in 6 years in 2015, down 2.4% to $1.29 trillion, driven by a pullback in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- Going forward, the focus will be on core assets that provide value to occupants. Investors will seek platforms for local intelligence and pursue opportunities such as modern flexible office, retail, and logistics space in gateway cities.
DealMarket DIGEST Issue 130 // 28 Feburary 2014 CAR FOR YOU
The document summarizes recent private equity news from various sources. It discusses growing investment in distressed assets and niche industries to avoid overpaying. It also notes renewed private equity interest in Southern Europe as the region's economies improve. Additionally, it predicts increased buyout activity in Europe as non-bank lenders provide more financing. The document also highlights the large compensation of top private equity executives and strong performance of private equity-backed IPOs globally. Finally, it includes a quote from the IMF chief on the impact of technology on jobs and inequality.
The document summarizes the key findings of the Global Financial Centres Index 15 (GFCI 15). Some of the main points include:
- New York surpassed London as the top-ranked global financial center, though the difference between the two is small. Hong Kong and Singapore remained third and fourth.
- London experienced the largest drop among the top 50 centers due to issues like regulatory failures, uncertainty over EU membership, and an unwelcoming environment for foreign workers.
- Middle Eastern centers like Qatar, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi continued rising in the ranks.
- Most European centers declined as the region remains in turmoil. Offshore centers also struggled with reputation and regulation issues.
The document provides an overview and analysis of European fund market flows in 2013 based on data from Lipper FundFile. Some key points:
- Total estimated net sales in European funds was €183.5 billion in 2013. Bond funds saw €96 billion in sales while equity funds saw €92 billion and mixed assets funds saw €85 billion.
- Risk appetite increased in 2013 compared to 2012, leading to stronger flows into equity funds across most major European countries except Germany.
- Mixed assets funds proved popular, especially in Italy, the UK and Germany, with cross-border funds accounting for €37 billion of mixed assets sales.
- BlackRock maintained the top spot for European fund sales at €32
This document provides excerpts from investment commentaries by Anthony Lombardi from 2016 to 2019. It discusses market conditions, political events, and Lombardi's views on sectors and portfolio positioning over a 3-5 year horizon during this period. Key events mentioned include the 2016 US presidential election, midterm elections in 2018, ongoing trade negotiations, and regulatory risks for large technology companies. The excerpts reflect Lombardi's consistent value-based investment approach and perspective on market cycles and sentiment over time.
Globalization refers to the increasing integration of economies around the world through reductions in trade barriers and increases in flow of goods, services, and capital between countries. It leads to more specialization internationally and an increased material wealth. Foreign direct investment contributes directly to international business by allowing companies to invest across borders through mechanisms like mergers and acquisitions or building new facilities in other countries. This increases productivity in the host country and can transfer skills and technology. However, political stability, legal systems, economic conditions, and currency fluctuations in different countries can significantly impact foreign businesses operating there.
1) Private banking assets under management in Western Europe grew 8% in 2012, driven by a 6% gain in capital markets and 2% net inflows.
2) However, profit and revenue margins declined for the first time since 2010 amid low interest rates and increasing regulation.
3) There is growing polarization between leading and lagging private banks, with only 24% regaining pre-crisis profitability above 35 basis points.
The document summarizes the performance of the Western Reserve Master Fund for the first quarter of 2010. It rose 22.3% gross and 18.2% net, outperforming benchmarks. It also provides background on Charles Mackay's 1841 book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" and discusses how recent economic events could be added to the book. The document then analyzes specific investments in the fund's portfolio, including Citigroup and Wells Fargo, focusing on their earnings power, cash flows, and valuation using a pre-tax, pre-provision income approach.
1. The document discusses recent market volatility due to ongoing trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners. While this represents uncertainty, the trade policy aims to protect US workers and industries.
2. It is a challenging time for international investments as some economic growth has stalled and the rising US dollar puts pressure on foreign assets. However, fundamentals still look attractive for international stocks, with expected strong earnings growth.
3. The final article in the series on Social Security discusses the key factors to consider when deciding when to claim benefits - financial need and health/longevity. Online calculators require estimating life expectancy, but the best strategy generally depends on whether one expects to live past their late 70s or not.
Arbuthnot Latham: Global Markets Report Q1 2019Siôn Puckle
Our report discusses general developments within global markets over the first quarter of 2019, with a focus on the issues influencing portfolios. Following an economic and market summary, we expand upon a number of themes before concluding with a review of the major asset classes.
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
And The Band Played On…
“When democratic governments create economic calamity, free markets get the blame.”-Jack Kemp
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”- Mark Twain
Thus far, the calamities predicted by the pundits that would result from the Brexit vote to leave the European Union have not been as severe as anticipated. Perhaps this is due to the building geopolitical and economic stresses that have diverted the focus from Brexit to other issues. Furthermore, the impact of Brexit will likely take some time to discern as the trade, migration, political and other ramifications evolve over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, governments globally continue in their efforts to stimulate economic growth with what appears to be diminishing results.
Eagle Wealth Strategies is an independent financial advisory firm located in West Deptford, New Jersey. The firm provides comprehensive financial planning services to individuals, families, and professionals. In this issue: the economy and markets are mild with modest gains; the biggest financial concerns for clients are healthcare costs, taxes, and protecting assets; the benefits of diversification are highlighted; and updates are provided on staff, community involvement, awards, and office expansion.
This newsletter introduces a new publication called "EYE ON THE MARKETS" that will analyze macroeconomic trends, investment management, and equity market movements. The author argues that macro events have an overwhelming influence on stock markets, and periods of calm have been interrupted by market sell-offs due to crises in Europe, the US, and Asia. Investors need to carefully manage their portfolios and prepare contingency plans for different scenarios. Some positive factors are signs of recovery in corporate earnings, manufacturing, and technology, though continued global uncertainties remain.
The document discusses the need for ICT corporations to shift their focus from financial systems to economics in light of global economic shifts. It notes the job losses in the ICT sector, especially at Microsoft, and argues economics should guide business decisions more than politics. The US economy is analyzed and found to have significant debt issues, calling into question its status as sole world leader. The document advocates for ICT companies like Microsoft to assess local markets, focus on the bottom two thirds of consumers, and develop strategies guided by economic principles rather than just maintaining the same approaches.
Brian Hogan is president of Fidelity Investments' equity division, overseeing $850 billion in assets. He discusses Fidelity's outlook for 2014, seeing earnings growth of around 7-8% resulting in around a 10% return for the S&P 500 before factoring in changes to its price/earnings multiple. Hogan believes active managers will have an advantage in the next 3-4 years as correlations between stocks decrease, making it more of a "stock picker's market." He cites several standout Fidelity portfolio managers who have outperformed benchmarks by wide margins for decades.
This newsletter from Northland Wealth Management provides updates on financial markets and planning strategies. It discusses the uncertainty caused by Brexit and the US election, and how concentrated positions in single assets can be addressed. It also describes incentive trusts that can motivate positive behavior in beneficiaries. Northland Wealth believes alternative investments can complement traditional portfolios by improving risk-return, and attended a conference on the evolving financial industry.
Over the last year or so, there has been much talk about another impending recession and how it could impact channel management. The recession theory is based upon historical trends, which suggest business cycles tend to last around five to seven years each. That means every five to seven years we experience some sort of a recession. Eventually the economy recovers, and then something else happens to triggers another recession.
Dr. Michael Hasenstab provides an analysis of factors that will differentiate the recoveries of various countries from the global economic crisis. He believes emerging markets will recover more quickly than developed markets due to emerging markets' stronger domestic economies and less reliance on exports, more effective policy responses, and avoidance of issues like high public debt and private sector leverage plaguing developed nations. Recent economic trends support this view, with emerging markets showing stronger growth, job creation, and capital inflows. Hasenstab also discusses opportunities in foreign exchange and bond markets stemming from divergence in recoveries.
This document provides an outlook on the retail investment market for 2018. It finds that retail investments continue to outperform, with vacancy rates at their lowest levels since the 1990s and corporate profits hitting records. The coming year is expected to see exceptional dynamics for retail investors, as a strong economy and low unemployment drive increased consumer spending and demand for retail space. Single-tenant retail investments have been particularly favored, though rising interest rates could partially offset increased investment from tax law changes. Overall metrics point to continued strength in the retail sector in 2018.
Cushman & Wakefield 2016 Capital Markets OutlookMatthew Marshall
The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016. Some key points:
- Global property investment volumes fell 2.4% in 2015, the first decline in 6 years, driven by lower volumes in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- The US saw the strongest growth at 25% and accounted for 39% of global volumes. Yields fell globally but recovery has been uneven by region.
- In 2016, core assets in major cities will remain popular. Demand will need to spread to new sectors and markets to find opportunities. Emerging markets may stabilize later in the year.
- Structural changes like
- The document provides an overview of global real estate investment trends in 2015 and an outlook for 2016.
- Global property investment volumes fell slightly for the first time in 6 years in 2015, down 2.4% to $1.29 trillion, driven by a pullback in Asia, notably for development land. Excluding land, volumes rose 8.2%.
- Going forward, the focus will be on core assets that provide value to occupants. Investors will seek platforms for local intelligence and pursue opportunities such as modern flexible office, retail, and logistics space in gateway cities.
DealMarket DIGEST Issue 130 // 28 Feburary 2014 CAR FOR YOU
The document summarizes recent private equity news from various sources. It discusses growing investment in distressed assets and niche industries to avoid overpaying. It also notes renewed private equity interest in Southern Europe as the region's economies improve. Additionally, it predicts increased buyout activity in Europe as non-bank lenders provide more financing. The document also highlights the large compensation of top private equity executives and strong performance of private equity-backed IPOs globally. Finally, it includes a quote from the IMF chief on the impact of technology on jobs and inequality.
The document summarizes the key findings of the Global Financial Centres Index 15 (GFCI 15). Some of the main points include:
- New York surpassed London as the top-ranked global financial center, though the difference between the two is small. Hong Kong and Singapore remained third and fourth.
- London experienced the largest drop among the top 50 centers due to issues like regulatory failures, uncertainty over EU membership, and an unwelcoming environment for foreign workers.
- Middle Eastern centers like Qatar, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi continued rising in the ranks.
- Most European centers declined as the region remains in turmoil. Offshore centers also struggled with reputation and regulation issues.
The document provides an overview and analysis of European fund market flows in 2013 based on data from Lipper FundFile. Some key points:
- Total estimated net sales in European funds was €183.5 billion in 2013. Bond funds saw €96 billion in sales while equity funds saw €92 billion and mixed assets funds saw €85 billion.
- Risk appetite increased in 2013 compared to 2012, leading to stronger flows into equity funds across most major European countries except Germany.
- Mixed assets funds proved popular, especially in Italy, the UK and Germany, with cross-border funds accounting for €37 billion of mixed assets sales.
- BlackRock maintained the top spot for European fund sales at €32
This document provides excerpts from investment commentaries by Anthony Lombardi from 2016 to 2019. It discusses market conditions, political events, and Lombardi's views on sectors and portfolio positioning over a 3-5 year horizon during this period. Key events mentioned include the 2016 US presidential election, midterm elections in 2018, ongoing trade negotiations, and regulatory risks for large technology companies. The excerpts reflect Lombardi's consistent value-based investment approach and perspective on market cycles and sentiment over time.
Globalization refers to the increasing integration of economies around the world through reductions in trade barriers and increases in flow of goods, services, and capital between countries. It leads to more specialization internationally and an increased material wealth. Foreign direct investment contributes directly to international business by allowing companies to invest across borders through mechanisms like mergers and acquisitions or building new facilities in other countries. This increases productivity in the host country and can transfer skills and technology. However, political stability, legal systems, economic conditions, and currency fluctuations in different countries can significantly impact foreign businesses operating there.
1) Private banking assets under management in Western Europe grew 8% in 2012, driven by a 6% gain in capital markets and 2% net inflows.
2) However, profit and revenue margins declined for the first time since 2010 amid low interest rates and increasing regulation.
3) There is growing polarization between leading and lagging private banks, with only 24% regaining pre-crisis profitability above 35 basis points.
The document summarizes the performance of the Western Reserve Master Fund for the first quarter of 2010. It rose 22.3% gross and 18.2% net, outperforming benchmarks. It also provides background on Charles Mackay's 1841 book "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" and discusses how recent economic events could be added to the book. The document then analyzes specific investments in the fund's portfolio, including Citigroup and Wells Fargo, focusing on their earnings power, cash flows, and valuation using a pre-tax, pre-provision income approach.
1. The document discusses recent market volatility due to ongoing trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners. While this represents uncertainty, the trade policy aims to protect US workers and industries.
2. It is a challenging time for international investments as some economic growth has stalled and the rising US dollar puts pressure on foreign assets. However, fundamentals still look attractive for international stocks, with expected strong earnings growth.
3. The final article in the series on Social Security discusses the key factors to consider when deciding when to claim benefits - financial need and health/longevity. Online calculators require estimating life expectancy, but the best strategy generally depends on whether one expects to live past their late 70s or not.
Arbuthnot Latham: Global Markets Report Q1 2019Siôn Puckle
Our report discusses general developments within global markets over the first quarter of 2019, with a focus on the issues influencing portfolios. Following an economic and market summary, we expand upon a number of themes before concluding with a review of the major asset classes.
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
And The Band Played On…
“When democratic governments create economic calamity, free markets get the blame.”-Jack Kemp
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”- Mark Twain
Thus far, the calamities predicted by the pundits that would result from the Brexit vote to leave the European Union have not been as severe as anticipated. Perhaps this is due to the building geopolitical and economic stresses that have diverted the focus from Brexit to other issues. Furthermore, the impact of Brexit will likely take some time to discern as the trade, migration, political and other ramifications evolve over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, governments globally continue in their efforts to stimulate economic growth with what appears to be diminishing results.
Eagle Wealth Strategies is an independent financial advisory firm located in West Deptford, New Jersey. The firm provides comprehensive financial planning services to individuals, families, and professionals. In this issue: the economy and markets are mild with modest gains; the biggest financial concerns for clients are healthcare costs, taxes, and protecting assets; the benefits of diversification are highlighted; and updates are provided on staff, community involvement, awards, and office expansion.
This newsletter introduces a new publication called "EYE ON THE MARKETS" that will analyze macroeconomic trends, investment management, and equity market movements. The author argues that macro events have an overwhelming influence on stock markets, and periods of calm have been interrupted by market sell-offs due to crises in Europe, the US, and Asia. Investors need to carefully manage their portfolios and prepare contingency plans for different scenarios. Some positive factors are signs of recovery in corporate earnings, manufacturing, and technology, though continued global uncertainties remain.
BlackRock Strategic Management in China Jake Donahue
BlackRock is considering investing in China as an emerging market opportunity. China is transitioning from a manufacturing to consumer-driven economy over 30 years, much faster than the US' 100-year transition. Risks include China's slowing GDP growth, high debt levels, lack of transparency, and socioeconomic inequality. If BlackRock invests, it should only do so in alignment with Chinese government priorities in strategic industries and assume both known and unknown risks will materialize.
FactSet is a leading provider of financial data and analytics. It hires graduate consultants each year to work closely with clients, ensuring they effectively integrate FactSet's software into their investment processes. An upcoming event called Speed-Networking at Aston Trading and Investment Society will allow students to network with representatives from companies like Accenture, PwC, HSBC, and Barclays through 3-minute elevator pitches to potentially secure job offers. The newsletter also announces upcoming events from companies like Lloyds Banking Group and Grant Thornton.
FactSet is a leading provider of financial data and analytics. It hires graduate consultants each year to work closely with clients, ensuring they effectively integrate FactSet's software into their investment processes. The newsletter discusses upcoming events hosted by the Aston Trading and Investment Society, including speed networking with companies like PwC, HSBC, and Barclays. It also provides a market roundup on topics like Mexico's economic reforms and potential for growth, the significance of Black Friday for retailers, and the fall in oil prices.
DealMarket Digest Issue130 - 28 February 2014Urs Haeusler
SEE WHATS NOTEWORTHY IN PRIVATE EQUITY THIS WEEK /// ISSUE 130 - February 28th, 2014:
- PE Shuns Pricey Buyouts; Seeks Alternative Strategies
- Southern Europe Back on the PE Radar
- Non-bank Lenders to Boost Buyout M&A Activity
- PE Execs Making Top Dollar on Wall Street
- Global IPOs Float Private Equity’s Boat
- Quote of the Week: IMF Chief Gives Her Savvy View on Tech Impact
Despite a strong start in January, global stock markets became unnerved in the latter part of the first quarter of 2018. Rising trade tensions contributed to the unease investors exhibited as the US took a stronger stance on bilateral trade negotiations through the enactment of targeted tariffs.
This document provides an overview of Market Maker Capital's private placement memorandum. It discusses trends in the market environment that have created opportunities for alternative investment strategies. Specifically, it notes that traditional securities provide little return in a low interest rate environment while exposing investors to significant risk. The document highlights demographic trends like an aging population that will reduce demand and create a systemic event. It argues the current market is in a credit bubble and overvalued. The fund aims to protect capital during downturns and acquire assets at lower prices.
This document provides an overview of Market Maker Capital's private placement memorandum. It discusses trends in the market environment that have created opportunities for alternative investment strategies. Specifically, it notes that traditional securities provide little return in a low interest rate environment while exposing investors to significant risk. The document highlights demographic trends like an aging population that will reduce demand and create a systemic event. It argues the current market is in a credit bubble and overvalued. The fund aims to protect capital during downturns and acquire assets at lower prices.
- The global economy slowed in the first half of 2019 as manufacturing orders declined and trade growth weakened due to the US-China trade war.
- Despite these headwinds, global markets posted positive returns in the first half led by developed market equities. Both stocks and bonds rose together due to diverging views on future central bank actions.
- Key investment themes for the second half include ongoing central bank easing, uncertainty around the US-China trade war, potential for an earnings recession, and safe haven assets like gold continuing to benefit from rising global risks.
It has been ten years since the great financial crisis. In the US, the S&P 500 peaked on October 9, 2007. The Canadian market continued its upward trajectory into the following year peaking in June as energy stocks were buoyed by high oil prices. While the bull market leading up to 2008 had duration of about five years, the current bull market has gone on for ten years without any significant setback.
The document provides an economic outlook report for May 2011. It discusses several topics:
1) The death of Osama bin Laden and its limited impact on markets.
2) Continued strong corporate earnings driving stock markets higher.
3) Expected changes to the Fed's monetary policy of quantitative easing later in the year which may lead to higher interest rates and a weaker stock market.
3) The US GDP growth rate slowed in the first quarter which does not bode well for reducing unemployment.
The document provides an economic outlook report for May 2011. It discusses several topics:
1) The death of Osama bin Laden and its limited impact on markets.
2) Continued strong corporate earnings driving stock markets higher.
3) Expected changes to the Fed's monetary policy of quantitative easing later in the year which may lead to higher interest rates and a weaker stock market.
3) The US GDP growth rate slowed in the first quarter which does not bode well for reducing unemployment.
The document provides a seasonal market outlook and review of global markets in Q4 2014 and for the year as a whole. Key points:
- Global stock markets fell sharply in mid-December due to falling commodity prices but recovered by Christmas. The FTSE 100 ended 2014 down 2.7%.
- Mining stocks and food retailers struggled while utility companies performed well, benefiting from growing demand for income and declining rate expectations.
- Commodity prices are expected to remain weak in 2015 due to slowing demand from Europe and China and increased supply, particularly of oil from US shale production.
The options market signals that investors anticipate higher inflation and interest rate hikes in the near future under President Trump. It also indicates that the downside risk to stocks is limited and that deregulation, tax cuts, and fiscal stimulus could spur stronger economic growth and higher corporate profits. Specifically, the options market sees industries like financials, industrials, technology, and consumer discretionary as benefiting most. Overall, the options market views Trump as understanding the importance of global trade and does not see him imposing severe sanctions on important trade partners like Mexico, China, and emerging markets.
This document discusses volatility and provides strategies for managing risk. It begins by stating that moderate volatility is healthy for financial markets as it separates strong from weak investments. The document then discusses three components needed for a well-functioning financial system: cognitive diversity among investors, full disclosure of information, and rewards/penalties for correct/incorrect views. It suggests investors should focus on owning businesses rather than reacting to market fluctuations, and construct diversified portfolios that are not overly correlated with any single index. Strategies discussed for managing risk include owning a variety of assets, investing globally for currency exposure benefits, and focusing on long-term goals rather than short-term volatility.
Similar to Financial Synergies | Q1 2018 Newsletter (20)
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
The document discusses challenges facing Social Security and potential reforms. By 2034, Social Security's trust fund is projected to become depleted, requiring an automatic 20% benefits cut or 25% payroll tax increase. Several reform options are outlined, including gradually increasing taxes or reducing benefits, but none fully address the shortfall. The document emphasizes that earlier Congressional action allows for more gradual changes and planning. It also reviews the economy and financial markets in 2023, noting strong returns despite challenges. Five insights for 2024 markets are provided, including the potential for further gains if inflation stabilizes and rates are cut. The importance of staying invested through changing conditions is stressed.
The document provides information on three key topics:
1. The three pillars of retirement - how much one saves, withdraws, and how well their portfolio performs. Saving adequately and avoiding excessive withdrawals are emphasized.
2. Harry Markowitz and his pioneering work developing Modern Portfolio Theory in the 1950s, which revolutionized investing through diversification and analyzing risk and return.
3. How artificial intelligence and new technologies can boost productivity and economic growth over the long run, though their impacts are often overestimated in the short term. Maintaining a level-headed perspective on new technologies is advised for investors.
The document provides a summary of global market performance in 2020. The US stock market outperformed other major markets, returning 20.89%. International developed markets returned 7.59% while emerging markets returned 18.31%. Within international stocks, Denmark and Sweden saw the best returns among developed markets, while Korea and Taiwan led emerging markets. Bond markets also posted gains, with the US bond market returning 7.51%.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
The document provides information about the next six months from the perspective of a financial advisor. It discusses the turbulent past six months due to the COVID-19 pandemic and hopes the next six months will be better. It then analyzes the impact past US presidents have had on markets and the economy during their terms, noting both positive and negative impacts. It concludes that a Biden or Trump presidency will likely have a mixed impact, and that investors should stay the course and focus on long-term investing rather than trying to time markets based on who is president.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
- US stocks outperformed international developed and emerging markets in Q3 2019, with value outperforming growth. Small caps underperformed large caps in the US.
- International developed markets underperformed the US but outperformed emerging markets in Q3. Small caps outperformed large caps internationally.
- Emerging markets significantly underperformed both the US and international developed markets in Q3. Value underperformed growth in emerging markets.
This report features world capital market performance and a
timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global
overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset
classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified
portfolios and features a quarterly topic.
This document discusses the challenges of market timing and outlines two approaches financial advisors can take when designing investment portfolios for clients. The first takes a more "authoritative" approach where the advisor implements whatever is needed to achieve the client's goals regardless of risk tolerance. The second takes a more "accommodative" approach where the advisor educates the client and ultimately accommodates their investment wishes. The author argues that sometimes clients' goals themselves carry more risk than their investment portfolios, and the sensible approach is to identify goals consistent with a client's risk tolerance.
This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins with a global overview, then features the returns of stock and bond asset classes in the US and international markets.
The report also illustrates the impact of globally diversified portfolios.
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1. 4265 San Felipe, Suite 1450, Houston, TX 77027 | 713-623-6600 | info@finsyn.com | finsyn.com
Market Update
MIKE BOOKER, CFP®, CHFC®, CFS®
SHAREHOLDER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR
What an interesting quarter we’ve had.
After getting accustomed and quite
comfortable with our stock market
marching onward and upward with virtually
no drama, then, BOOM! drama in the form
of unexpected volatility. It has been
worrisome to investors, particularly new
investors, as it seems the markets become unhinged.
Even seasoned investors can get nervous when markets
decline, but most long-term investors like a situation where
shares of good companies become available at much
cheaper prices. This is known as opportunity and its
healthy…more on that later.
Even with the recent decline, there hasn’t been much to get
excited about because valuations still remain rich. One
indication: despite the first quarter decline, stocks are still
trading at 23.5 times 2017’s reported earnings, and 22
percent above the 50-year average of 19.2 times earnings.
INSIDE THIS ISSUE
1. Market Update
2. Tariffs, Technology,
Rates, and Volatility
3. Long-Term Care
Insurance
4. Adding a Trusted
Contact Person to
Your Accounts
Q1 2018
Newsletter
Quarterly
...Continued on next page
2. 2„„
...Continued from previous page
No surprise here because stocks have surrendered merely a tenth of their value. Stocks and stock
funds are just one part of our overall net worth. In addition, we may also have bonds, cash
investments like savings accounts and certificates of deposit, our future Social Security benefits,
any traditional pension plan we’re entitled to, our home and our income-earning ability. Add it all up, and
you’ll likely find your net worth has barely declined over the past three months.
But when markets tumble, our emotional time horizon often shrinks, and we obsess over every rise and fall
in the market averages. As a client of Financial Synergies, whether drawing income from your portfolio or
adding money to it, in all likelihood, there is absolutely no pressing need to sell the stock positions in your
portfolio while they are experiencing a minor downturn. Most investment advisors will tell you that after
the run the markets have had since the election in 2016, a pullback that we have had is a healthy
occurrence for long-term stability in the our markets and our investment plan. Volatility tends to wash out
the short-term focused investors and, as a wise investment advisor named Nick Murray once said, “In times
of market downturns, stocks are returned to their rightful owners."
_________
We are pleased and excited to welcome our new employee, Lottie Hensley, to the
team as our new front-of-house Client Concierge. She will be the person to greet you
when you come into the office, and you’ll hear her on the end of the line when you call.
Lottie comes to us from administrative and event planning roles at Tudor Pickering
Holt, and the Center for Houston’s Future. A Houston native, Lottie is involved with
many local charities and volunteer organizations, enjoys hiking, biking, and traveling,
and frequents the parks around her house in Midtown with her two dogs.
Bill & Marta Marko help launch the Tulane Brain Institute
Congratulations to our clients,
Bill & Marta Marko who provided
a lead gift to help launch the
Brain Institute at Tulane
University, Bill's alma mater.
The Brain Institute was created
as a trans-disciplinary entity
across Tulane to coordinate and
oversee neuroscience-related
endeavors.
Pictured above are Marta and Bill being honored at the opening ceremony on October 1, 2016 by Dr.
Laura Levy, VP Research, accompanied by Mike Fitts, President; Robin Forman, Provost; Dr. Stacy Drury,
Assistant Director of the Brain Institute; and Dr. Jill Daniel, Director of the Brain Institute.
"We hope our contributions can help create additional momentum for the initiative and that it provides
a physical space and sense of place for the initiatives., but more importantly we hope our gifts propel all
those working as part of the Brain Institute to be role models for interdisciplinary cooperation in order
to achieve breakthroughs that could not be accomplished in silos.", Bill Marko said.
"Tulane owes much gratitude to Bill and Marta Marko for their generous support of the Brain Institute.",
Tulane President Mike Fitts said.
3. 3
In a nutshell, the 1st quarter was defined by tariffs, technology, rates, and volatility. All the while the
global economic engine kept chugging, and remains fundamentally strong. The market was shot out
of a cannon to start 2018, but as various pressures and perhaps an overly exuberant investing public
took hold, the party came to an end in late January.
Although the market entered into a technical “correction,” the major indices managed to avoid major
declines for the 1st quarter. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones declined -0.76% and -1.97% respectively.
Financial Synergies Quarterly Newsletter | Q1 2018
And, the NASDAQ was actually in positive territory for the quarter at 2.59%, which is surprising given its tech-
heavy composition. More on technology later.
Let’s break down each of the major themes of 2018 so far: Tariffs, Technology, Rates, and Volatility.
Tariffs and Trade Wars
Trade policy is a key political issue for the Trump administration. Last year, the U.S. ran a trade deficit of over
half a trillion dollars. Our trade with China alone added $337 billion to this deficit. This has naturally led to
concerns that we are being taken advantage of, resulting in trade tariffs to support those industries that have
been disrupted by globalization. Whether you agree with this or not, there are workers that have been left
behind, fueling age-old political and populist forces.
Many U.S. workers have faced tremendous difficulty as technology has made many jobs obsolete and
globalization has moved jobs overseas. The administration’s goal of protecting domestic industries taps into
this unrest.
China and Mexico are easy scapegoats for the loss of U.S. industrial jobs over the past several decades.
However, from an economic perspective, these are symptoms of the unstoppable forces of technology and
globalization. The joke, attributed to Warren Bennis, is that “the factory of the future will have only two
employees, a man and a dog. The man will be there to feed the dog. The dog will be there to keep the man
from touching the equipment.” Promoting American industries may temporarily stanch the flow, but can’t
reverse it. It appears that most industries oppose tariffs since globalization has brought more benefits than
costs.
Tariffs, Technology,
Rates, and Volatility!
MIKE MINTER, CFP®, CFS® | SHAREHOLDER, PORTFOLIO MANAGER
...Continued on next page
4. 4„„
...Continued from previous page
U.S. Trade Balance by Country
The chart above shows the U.S. trade balance across major trading partners. In 2017, the total U.S.
trade deficit reached $568 billion. Countries such as China and Mexico are easy political targets due
to our sizable imbalances with these trading partners. However, the U.S. ran significant trade deficits
with our other allies as well, including the European Union and Japan.
The potential for a trade war with countries such as China is worrying markets. This is a legitimate
concern since free trade disproportionately benefits U.S. consumers and companies, even if some
industries do lose out. The best hope for global trade is that cooler heads prevail, allowing the U.S.
to reach trade agreements with its major partners.
Whether trade deficits are inherently bad is a matter of academic debate. In theory, by importing
more than we export, we are “borrowing” from the rest of the world. The IOU’s we issue to do this are
U.S. dollars, which in theory should lose value as we “borrow” more. Thus, the question is whether we
gain more than we lose via trade. The fact that most consumers and industries benefit from lower cost
goods and services is one reason the trade deficit is unlikely to be closed by policymakers.
Technology
Investors were also worried about technology stocks in the first quarter, driven by a number of stock-
specific concerns. This has become an important issue due to the outsized performance of the sector
and the growing market caps of its largest players (often referred to as the FANG stocks). In fact, there
have been many periods over this cycle when FANG stocks drove overall market performance.
...Continued on next page
5. 5„„
The Fed raised the federal funds rate in March in response to a healthy U.S. economy. In its updated
economic projections, it emphasized that unemployment can fall much lower than in past cycles without
stoking inflation. This suggests that while we may see four interest rate hikes this year, the Fed is not yet
concerned about having to tighten too quickly.
...Continued from previous page
Technology, continued...
As shown in the chart,
despite recent troubles, the
technology sector has still
gained over 24% over the
past 12 months.
Additionally, the goal of long-
term investors is to diversify
across not just asset classes,
but sectors as well. Not only
have many other sectors
outperformed over this
period, but the earnings
outlooks for ten of the eleven
sectors is still positive. Thus,
while the technology sector
may be impacting the
broader market today,
properly diversified investors
should be less concerned.
Rates
6. 6„„
...Continued from previous page
Rates, continued...
From a global perspective, central banks have entered a new phase. The Fed has been reducing stimulus
and tightening policy since late 2013. Other central banks are now beginning to follow suit by reducing
their asset purchases, paving the way for eventual monetary tightening.
At the moment, they are doing so because economic growth is healthy. Thus, this is still good news for
global stocks.
Volatility
And of course, all these issues have led to an increase in volatility. Volatility rose in the first quarter after
an extremely quiet 2017. The VIX index of volatility reached 37, its highest level since 2015. So far in 2018,
the worst market pullback has been 10%.
Still, this is below the historical average of 13.5% since World War II. Despite these market pullbacks, most
years end in positive territory, averaging 9% gains – this is why stocks have historically been great long-
run investments, despite short-term volatility.
Unfortunately, volatility is the norm and can only be managed by investing over long time horizons and via
diversification, not by trading in and out of the market.
7. 7
Long-Term Care Insurance
HEATH HIGHTOWER, CFP® | SHAREHOLDER, FINANCIAL ADVISOR
Over the past few years, the topic of long-term care is finding its way into our financial planning
conversations more and more. Retirees seem especially interested in long-term care insurance, but they
often don’t fully understand what long-term care insurance is, or know if they even need the coverage
at all.
According to a recent life expectancy study by JP Morgan, a newly retired couple has about a 49 percent chance of
one spouse (or both) living past the age of 90. As you might expect, the longer we live the more likely we are to need
long-term care assistance. The average American life expectancy increases almost every year, and this has changed the
medical needs of those in the advanced stages of life. For instance, 25 years ago very few of us had ever heard of
Alzheimer’s disease. But today, it’s the leading cause for long-term care services.
What is long-term care insurance? Long-term care (LTC) is defined as the need for assistance with your activities of
daily living, such as bathing, dressing, eating, getting in and out of bed or chair, going to the restroom, and maintaining
continence. Most insurance policies require the insured to be unable to perform two of these activities before they
begin to pay benefits on a policy. The policy proceeds are typically used to pay for qualified expenses for the care,
services, and housing of the insured.
Do you really need long-term care insurance? Broadly speaking, there are only three ways that most American’s pay
for long-term care expenses: self-funding, Medicaid, and long-term care insurance policies. Although each of these
options can be appropriate for certain financial situations, the discussion usually revolves around self-funding
versus buying a LTC insurance policy. To answer this question, there are several factors that need to be carefully
considered before you can make the decision, and it should be made with a trusted financial advisor. Some of the items
that may impact your decision are health, age, income, premium cost, your family support system, your savings &
investments, preexisting conditions, et cetera.
According to the American Association for Long-Term Care Insurance, the best age to apply for coverage is typically in
your mid-50s. Even then, it is important to seek the guidance of a professional who can help you sift through all the
options available in the various LTC policies. Different policies have different coverage amounts, limitations, exclusions
and waiting periods. It is important to make an informed decision, in advance, as to how best to fund an extended
health care need and then to communicate that decision to your family effectively. The emotional challenges of a
health care crisis are easier to handle when the financial challenges have already been planned for.
Financial Synergies does not sell nor provide long-term care insurance. However, we recognize long-term care planning
as a critical component of an overall financial plan. Sometimes, finding a qualified insurance specialist can be difficult,
so we have a handful of highly qualified & trustworthy insurance professionals that we work alongside to deliver the
best long-term care advice to each of our clients. Feel free to give us a call if you’d like to explore which route is best
for you.
Financial Synergies Quarterly Newsletter | Q1 2018
8. 8„„
To coincide with new FINRA rules enacted in February of this year, Schwab has added an account
addendum allowing individuals to add a "Trusted Contact Person" (TCP) to their accounts. These
changes address the ever-changing landscape of financial exploitation of seniors and vulnerable adults,
and was designed to protect these investors.
To add a TCP to your account, all you have to do is fill out a quick two-page form with your information
and your trusted contact's information (you can have up to two TCPs on file). Adding the TCPs to your
account will give Schwab and Financial Synergies the authorization to contact those named individuals if
we or Schwab believe that there is a reason to be concerned about any behavior on your accounts. It will
allow us to obtain from and disclose to any necessary information about you including contact
information, health status, identity of guardians, relatives, executors, power of attorneys, and any other
information for your financial well-being.
The Trusted Contact Person (TCP) is different from a Power of Attorney (POA). The TCP can only give
and receive information as mentioned above, and cannot give any instructions or make changes on your
behalf. A POA has the ability to act on your behalf and make any changes they are authorized to on your
accounts. As a rule of thumb, a TCP should be someone who is different from your POA. This should be
someone who knows you and your family and your situation.
Both Trusted Contact Persons and Powers of Attorney should be reviewed annually, and we will make
sure to bring these up when you meet with us during your update meetings.
If you have any questions about TCPs, POAs, or would like to set one up, feel free to reach out to any
member of our team and we will get the ball rolling.
Adding a Trusted Contact
Person to Your Account
MARIE VILLARD | DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS
Congratulations to Jonathan Garcia on his Olympic Success!
Our client, Joseph Garcia, recently shared a wonderful
story about his son's, Jonathan Garcia's, successes in the
PyeongChang Winter Games as a speed skater
representing the USA in the 500 meter event!
Jonathan Garcia, 31 of Katy, has lived his life on the road
for the last ten years training as part of the US Olympic
speed skating team. After being on skates since 1994 and
spending ten years as an inline skater (and made the US
World Championship team in that sport three times), he
was recruited by the US Olympic Committee as part of the
first group of inline skaters to switch to ice skating in 2006
and 2007.
Jonathan also represented the USA for speed skating in
the 1,000 meter event in Sochi in 2014.
We all wish the best for our children and hope their hard
work pays off! In this case we are so proud to celebrate the
success of Jonathan Garcia’s Speed Skating Olympic runs!