Economies are the cumulative reflection of the myriad of transactions taking place every day. In order for a transaction to take place, there must be a buyer and a seller. Both parties to the transaction believe that they are receiving adequate compensation, no matter on which side of the trade they reside. In financial markets, buyers and sellers are expressing differing expectations for the object being sold. Markets have continued to rise for a long period of time, indicative of there being more optimism that economic conditions will continue to improve. The question is: Will these expectations continue to be validated or will those positive expectations be overwhelmed by economic and geopolitical factors that have underpinned the rising markets to date? Are we at the dawn of a new era or the dusk of an era that has run its course?
As the third quarter drew to a close, Canada had yet to come to terms with the US and Mexico on a renewed trade agreement. Investors woke up on Monday, October 1, 2018 to news that a deal had in fact been cobbled together at the last minute and that all was well in the world.
A euphoric start to 2019!
After a dismal end to last year, global stock markets rebounded in the first quarter making up much of the ground lost in the final quarter of 2018. The underpinnings of this sudden reversal in sentiment are less clear. There appears to be a disconnect between the direction of the stock markets and the direction of the global economies. Economists continue to moderate the outlook for future economic growth. The issues that vexed the markets in 2018 remain and in many cases, those issues have deteriorated even further.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
Despite a strong start in January, global stock markets became unnerved in the latter part of the first quarter of 2018. Rising trade tensions contributed to the unease investors exhibited as the US took a stronger stance on bilateral trade negotiations through the enactment of targeted tariffs.
It has been seven years since the last financial crisis. In that seven-year period, the total global debt has increased by even more than it did in the seven years previous (2000-2007). From the end of 2007 through to the end of the first half of last year, total global debt increased by 40%, or $US 57 TRILLION! This massive increase in debt has been a consequence of easy money in a low interest rate environment aided and abetted by programs of quantitative easing (the provision of liquidity by central banks) in order to promote economic growth and investment.
The first quarter managed to record some positive results overall, despite severe declines in some sectors.
Are the good times here to stay or are we hearing the Sirens’ call? Since 2008, investors have been on an odyssey. Gradually, stock markets have managed to recover from the disastrous carnage precipitated by the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. It has been an uneven path back to current market levels as there have been many occasions when it appeared that the fragile recovery would be stymied by bickering politicians, slowing emerging economies, deflationary pressures, regulatory zeal, civil unrest in the Middle East, over spent consumers, etc
It didn’t go the way the pundits predicted. As the second quarter came to a close, people in the UK voted to exit (Brexit) the European Union by a narrow margin. Despite the narrow differences in the polls, global markets and the mainstream press indicated that the opposite outcome would prevail in the days leading up to the vote.
Investors hate uncertainty. The immediate reaction to the Brexit vote was severe and negative. However, stocks recovered to a great extent over the following week.
As we enter the last quarter of 2013, US politicians are once again playing a game of brinkmanship; unfortunately one that could have dire consequences for the world’s economy. Politicians continue to entrench opposing positions rather than engage in positive action. It is highly unlikely that the entire US government will shut down as essential services will remain active, but nevertheless, investors dislike uncertainty and markets have been under pressure as the Third Quarter closed.
As the third quarter drew to a close, Canada had yet to come to terms with the US and Mexico on a renewed trade agreement. Investors woke up on Monday, October 1, 2018 to news that a deal had in fact been cobbled together at the last minute and that all was well in the world.
A euphoric start to 2019!
After a dismal end to last year, global stock markets rebounded in the first quarter making up much of the ground lost in the final quarter of 2018. The underpinnings of this sudden reversal in sentiment are less clear. There appears to be a disconnect between the direction of the stock markets and the direction of the global economies. Economists continue to moderate the outlook for future economic growth. The issues that vexed the markets in 2018 remain and in many cases, those issues have deteriorated even further.
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
Despite a strong start in January, global stock markets became unnerved in the latter part of the first quarter of 2018. Rising trade tensions contributed to the unease investors exhibited as the US took a stronger stance on bilateral trade negotiations through the enactment of targeted tariffs.
It has been seven years since the last financial crisis. In that seven-year period, the total global debt has increased by even more than it did in the seven years previous (2000-2007). From the end of 2007 through to the end of the first half of last year, total global debt increased by 40%, or $US 57 TRILLION! This massive increase in debt has been a consequence of easy money in a low interest rate environment aided and abetted by programs of quantitative easing (the provision of liquidity by central banks) in order to promote economic growth and investment.
The first quarter managed to record some positive results overall, despite severe declines in some sectors.
Are the good times here to stay or are we hearing the Sirens’ call? Since 2008, investors have been on an odyssey. Gradually, stock markets have managed to recover from the disastrous carnage precipitated by the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008. It has been an uneven path back to current market levels as there have been many occasions when it appeared that the fragile recovery would be stymied by bickering politicians, slowing emerging economies, deflationary pressures, regulatory zeal, civil unrest in the Middle East, over spent consumers, etc
It didn’t go the way the pundits predicted. As the second quarter came to a close, people in the UK voted to exit (Brexit) the European Union by a narrow margin. Despite the narrow differences in the polls, global markets and the mainstream press indicated that the opposite outcome would prevail in the days leading up to the vote.
Investors hate uncertainty. The immediate reaction to the Brexit vote was severe and negative. However, stocks recovered to a great extent over the following week.
As we enter the last quarter of 2013, US politicians are once again playing a game of brinkmanship; unfortunately one that could have dire consequences for the world’s economy. Politicians continue to entrench opposing positions rather than engage in positive action. It is highly unlikely that the entire US government will shut down as essential services will remain active, but nevertheless, investors dislike uncertainty and markets have been under pressure as the Third Quarter closed.
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
And The Band Played On…
“When democratic governments create economic calamity, free markets get the blame.”-Jack Kemp
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”- Mark Twain
Thus far, the calamities predicted by the pundits that would result from the Brexit vote to leave the European Union have not been as severe as anticipated. Perhaps this is due to the building geopolitical and economic stresses that have diverted the focus from Brexit to other issues. Furthermore, the impact of Brexit will likely take some time to discern as the trade, migration, political and other ramifications evolve over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, governments globally continue in their efforts to stimulate economic growth with what appears to be diminishing results.
Since the inauguration on January 20, we have all been inundated by media reports on the first one hundred days of the Trump administration. While stock market participants entered the year with apparently high expectations, towards the end of this 90 day quarter there has been wavering of sentiment as the realization that not all of Trump’s campaign promises are likely to be delivered.
It has been ten years since the great financial crisis. In the US, the S&P 500 peaked on October 9, 2007. The Canadian market continued its upward trajectory into the following year peaking in June as energy stocks were buoyed by high oil prices. While the bull market leading up to 2008 had duration of about five years, the current bull market has gone on for ten years without any significant setback.
“Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination.”- Oscar Wilde
It all seemed so easy. The elixir of low interest rates and successive rounds of quantitative easing by the central banks created an environment wherein stock and real estate prices have risen, private equity and credit deals proliferated, corporations lowered their cost of capital with low rates and sub-prime borrowers regained access to capital. Until this quarter, investors were content to drink this elixir as markets steadily climbed out of the depths from 2008. The politicians taking credit and the central bankers implementing these policies cannot be accused of a lack of imagination.
Geopolitical events continued to make headlines this quarter but did little to quell investors’ enthusiasm as markets continued to advance. Russia and the Ukraine managed to agree to a temporary ceasefire just as sectarian violence in Iraq exploded driving oil prices higher. China garnered attention with its hegemonic designs on the South China Sea much to the displeasure of Japan and Vietnam as well as pushing back on any pro-democracy desires in Hong Kong. In addition, Argentina once again threatens to default on its debt after losing a Supreme Court decision to creditors in the US.
Included in this Invast Insights report, Turkey's economic condition was highlighted along with potential trading opportunities if the Turkish Lira collapses completely. Despite the economic issues of other countries, our Wealth Creation portfolio continued to hold up well and the Drawdown Phase portfolio traded above target.
Meanwhile, a case study for assessing other stocks is also included in this report. The case study - Forge Group (FGE): Example Of Fragility - showed that it is better to buy a robust business with little earnings than buying a business which appears to be making strong earnings but with poor composition.
Jeff Pesta • LPL Financial
- Is it time to retire your strategy, manager, fund, or ETF? by Dave Moenning
- Dollar strength has uncertain implications
- The Anchored Momentum Indicator by Ron Rowland
- Converting positive feedback into new business (Steve Molesky, Kalos Capital Inc.)
Perspectives & Planning - Washington Trust Wealth ManagementTony Nunes
Here is the first edition of Perspectives & Planning, a quarterly newsletter written by Washington Trust Wealth Management experts, featuring an outlook on the current state of the economy and the financial markets, as well as insights on financial planning.
No bubble trouble; stocks are still reasonably priced. This credit cycle has unique characteristics that continue to make high-yield bonds attractive. Interest-rate volatility poses greater risk than higher rates themselves.
Market Outlooks
We leverage a global network of investment consultants and researchers to deliver industry specific knowledge and dynamic tools, which allows our clients to make informed strategic investment decisions.
THIRD QUARTER 2016
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
And The Band Played On…
“When democratic governments create economic calamity, free markets get the blame.”-Jack Kemp
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.”- Mark Twain
Thus far, the calamities predicted by the pundits that would result from the Brexit vote to leave the European Union have not been as severe as anticipated. Perhaps this is due to the building geopolitical and economic stresses that have diverted the focus from Brexit to other issues. Furthermore, the impact of Brexit will likely take some time to discern as the trade, migration, political and other ramifications evolve over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, governments globally continue in their efforts to stimulate economic growth with what appears to be diminishing results.
Since the inauguration on January 20, we have all been inundated by media reports on the first one hundred days of the Trump administration. While stock market participants entered the year with apparently high expectations, towards the end of this 90 day quarter there has been wavering of sentiment as the realization that not all of Trump’s campaign promises are likely to be delivered.
It has been ten years since the great financial crisis. In the US, the S&P 500 peaked on October 9, 2007. The Canadian market continued its upward trajectory into the following year peaking in June as energy stocks were buoyed by high oil prices. While the bull market leading up to 2008 had duration of about five years, the current bull market has gone on for ten years without any significant setback.
“Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination.”- Oscar Wilde
It all seemed so easy. The elixir of low interest rates and successive rounds of quantitative easing by the central banks created an environment wherein stock and real estate prices have risen, private equity and credit deals proliferated, corporations lowered their cost of capital with low rates and sub-prime borrowers regained access to capital. Until this quarter, investors were content to drink this elixir as markets steadily climbed out of the depths from 2008. The politicians taking credit and the central bankers implementing these policies cannot be accused of a lack of imagination.
Geopolitical events continued to make headlines this quarter but did little to quell investors’ enthusiasm as markets continued to advance. Russia and the Ukraine managed to agree to a temporary ceasefire just as sectarian violence in Iraq exploded driving oil prices higher. China garnered attention with its hegemonic designs on the South China Sea much to the displeasure of Japan and Vietnam as well as pushing back on any pro-democracy desires in Hong Kong. In addition, Argentina once again threatens to default on its debt after losing a Supreme Court decision to creditors in the US.
Included in this Invast Insights report, Turkey's economic condition was highlighted along with potential trading opportunities if the Turkish Lira collapses completely. Despite the economic issues of other countries, our Wealth Creation portfolio continued to hold up well and the Drawdown Phase portfolio traded above target.
Meanwhile, a case study for assessing other stocks is also included in this report. The case study - Forge Group (FGE): Example Of Fragility - showed that it is better to buy a robust business with little earnings than buying a business which appears to be making strong earnings but with poor composition.
Jeff Pesta • LPL Financial
- Is it time to retire your strategy, manager, fund, or ETF? by Dave Moenning
- Dollar strength has uncertain implications
- The Anchored Momentum Indicator by Ron Rowland
- Converting positive feedback into new business (Steve Molesky, Kalos Capital Inc.)
Perspectives & Planning - Washington Trust Wealth ManagementTony Nunes
Here is the first edition of Perspectives & Planning, a quarterly newsletter written by Washington Trust Wealth Management experts, featuring an outlook on the current state of the economy and the financial markets, as well as insights on financial planning.
No bubble trouble; stocks are still reasonably priced. This credit cycle has unique characteristics that continue to make high-yield bonds attractive. Interest-rate volatility poses greater risk than higher rates themselves.
Market Outlooks
We leverage a global network of investment consultants and researchers to deliver industry specific knowledge and dynamic tools, which allows our clients to make informed strategic investment decisions.
Still keeping your money on the sidelines because you are nervous about the market? Take a look at this article to see some of the unintended risks of inaction.
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
NO1 Uk Black Magic Specialist Expert In Sahiwal, Okara, Hafizabad, Mandi Bah...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
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What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
1. THIRD QUARTER 2019
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
A Crepuscular Moment… But is it Dawn or Dusk?
121 Richmond Street West, Suite 1101,
Toronto ON M5H 2K1
2. 121 RichmondStreet West, Suite 1101,TorontoON M5H 2K1|Phone:416.607.6642 | www. SprungInvestment. com | P a g e | 2
Sprung Investment Management our focus is to create investment portfolios for our clients that
enable them to achieve their unique, long-term investment goals. In this endeavour, we strive to act
with the utmost integrity, utilising all of our analytical skills, knowledge and intuitions.
PRIVATE CLIENT FOCUS
Sprung Investment Management is an independent discretionary investment management firm that
serves the investment needs of high net worth private clients including business owners and
entrepreneurs, professionals, family trusts, estates, and private charitable foundations.
OUR PEOPLE
At Sprung Investment Management, the investment team collectively has over 120 years of diversified
investment experience. All of our principals hold the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and as
such adhere to the CFA Institute Code of Ethics. Each has made a commitment to continuing education.
RISK PERSPECTIVE
We understand that our clients have worked hard to get where they are and we appreciate that they don’t
want to lose it. As the chosen stewards of their investment assets, our risk management approach is to
preserve their capital by purchasing under-valued securities, with a margin of safety that we expect will
deliver income and capital appreciation over the long term.
PERFORMANCE
Sprung Investment Management has a track record of low volatility of returns since company inception
in June 2005. This has served our clients well over this relatively difficult investment period that
includes the bear market of 2007- 2008. Our performance numbers are available by request.
CLIENT SERVICE
At Sprung Investment Management, satisfying our client’s financial needs is our top priority. Each and
every client is special and receives individual attention and customized investment advice based on
his/her specific objectives and risk tolerance. Our principals are always available to speak directly to
clients.
INVESTMENT STYLE
In building equity portfolios, individual security selection is based on “bottom up” research that is value-
driven and often contrarian to current popular thinking. We assess quality and continuity of return on
equity, current price relative to intrinsic value, economic value added and quality of management.
Although our typical investment horizon is two to five years, we constantly evaluate our current
holdings against new opportunities that may offer better value. Our view is that a strong sell discipline is
a critical component to long-term investment success.
Our investment approach on the fixed income side is to conduct rigorous credit analysis in the context of
future economic and interest rate expectations.
3. 121 RichmondStreet West, Suite 1101,TorontoON M5H 2K1|Phone:416.607.6642 | www. SprungInvestment. com | P a g e | 3
THIRD QUARTER 2019
RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE
A Crepuscular Moment… But is it Dawn or Dusk?
“Bull markets do not die of old age; they die of excesses…”- Leon Cooperman
Economies are the cumulative reflection of the myriad of transactions taking place every day. In order
for a transaction to take place, there must be a buyer and a seller. Both parties to the transaction believe
that they are receiving adequate compensation, no matter on which side of the trade they reside. In
financial markets, buyers and sellers are expressing differing expectations for the object being sold.
Markets have continued to rise for a long period of time, indicative of there being more optimism that
economic conditions will continue to improve. The question is: Will these expectations continue to be
validated or will those positive expectations be overwhelmed by economic and geopolitical factors that
have underpinned the rising markets to date? Are we at the dawn of a new era or the dusk of an era that
has run its course?
In Canada, the S&P/TSX Total Return Index advanced 2.5% in the third quarter of 2019, bringing the
year to date to 19.1%. The US market advanced 1.7% in the quarter as measured by the US dollar
denominated S&P 500 Total Return Index. The S&P 400 MidCap Total Return Index lagged the 500
with a -0.1% return in this quarter. Markets represented by the MSCI EAFE Price Return index posted a
negative 1.7% return as measured in US dollars or a -0.6% return in Canadian dollars. The Canadian
dollar depreciated 1.1% to its US counterpart in Q3.
Canadian
Dollar US Dollar
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YTD Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YTD
Toronto Stock
Exchange 13.3% 2.6% 2.5 % % 19.1%
S&P 500 11.2% 1.1 % 2.9% % 17.0% 13.6% 4.3% 1.7 % % 20.6%
MSCI EAFE* 6.7% 0.5% -0.6 % % 6.6% 9.0% 2.5% -1.7% % 9.9%
91 Day T-Bill 0.4% 0.4% 0.4 % % 1.2%
CUBI** 3.9% 2.5 % 1.2% % 7.8%
CDN/US dollar 2.1% 2.2% -1.1% % 3.0%
* Europe, Asia and Far East Index
** Canadian Universe Bond Index
A crepuscular event occurs twice a day. It refers to those moments in time between night and day: dawn
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and dusk.
It has been a decade since the great financial crisis. In that decade, stock markets have generally trended
up as the global economies struggled to regain footing. In this slow, tepid recovery, central banks played
a crucial role injecting liquidity into the markets through outright purchases of financial instruments and
driving interest rates to unprecedented lows. In any recovery, excesses tend to accumulate in the shadow
of the progress being accomplished only to become all too evident when the end of the cycle
approaches.
Investors today should pause to consider: Are we at the dawn of a new era wherein the means to propel
markets to higher levels will prevail, or, are we closer to the dusk of this business cycle?
Economies and markets are driven by productivity, the short-term debt/business cycle, the long-term
debt cycle and the politics within and between countries. Regulators attempt to promote economic
growth utilizing fiscal and monetary mechanisms as the economy swings through expansions and
contractions. At this juncture, it would appear that we are nearer a period of contraction rather than
expansion.
Global economic growth has been anaemic in the expansion since the financial crisis of 2008. US real
per capita GDP has advanced at a rate of 1.5% during this period; the slowest rate of expansion over a
decade since the 1950’s. The Us economy has done better since Mr. Trump took office, but the latest
estimates are for slower growth going forward.
The OECD is forecasting slower global growth in GDP over the next few years. This outlook is
consistent with global trends in manufacturing, transportation and warehousing; all of which have been
impacted by trade disputes.
Central banks have been able to promote investment and spending by keeping interest rates low. Low
rates have promoted massive debt accumulation over the past decade. The ability to promote growth
through low rates has diminished as the growth in incomes and output are not keeping pace with the
growth in debt servicing. Over US$17 trillion dollars of debt are now at negative interest rates,
exacerbating negative real returns. Investors are no longer earning returns commensurate with risk
which is most evident where yield curves are inverted.
The lack of yield in the fixed income markets has pushed investors to take on more risk. In the US,
investors are heavily skewed towards equities. Margin debt relative to GDP is higher than it was before
the last two market corrections. US equities are generally trading at a premium to the rest of the world as
their economic fundamentals have been stronger.
The excesses of the last decade have highlighted the growing disparity between rich and poor resulting
in conflict between capitalist adherents and socialist proponents. Geopolitical tensions are being strained
as China’s economy challenges the US for supremacy.
Volatility in the global markets, particularly the bond markets, in the third quarter of 2019 would suggest
that investors are losing confidence in the markets’ ability to maintain a positive direction. When and by
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what degree the markets may correct is anyone’s guess.
In this environment, we remain cautious.
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THIRD QUARTER 2019 FIXED INCOME COMMENTARY
“The phoenix must burn to emerge” ~ Janet Fitch
It was not totally unexpected. The Federal Reserve (Fed) in the US cut its trend setting Fed Funds Rate,
not once, but twice during the quarter. While there were dissenting voices by some members of the Fed,
the majority felt that there was sufficient risk of slowing employment growth and consumer spending
that the rate reductions were warranted, at least as a precaution.
As much as changes in interest rate policy are supposed to be forward looking, it is disconcerting that
with the economy reasonably robust that the Fed had decided to cut twice in three months. The question
is: “What will their strategy be if there is actually a recession, mild or otherwise?” Given that there is not
that much more room to cut rates, will they be forced to resort to another round of Quantitative Easing
wherein they actively purchase securities to provide adequate liquidity in the financial markets?
The Bank of Canada does not appear to share the Fed’s concerns as our interest rate policy has not
changed since 2018. While the Bank has expressed concerns about trade tensions in the world, domestic
employment has continued to be sufficiently robust which has to date allowed the Bank to remain on the
sidelines. However, further interest rate cuts south of the border would exert pressure on the Bank as our
dollar would likely increase in value making our exports less competitive on the world market.
In the UK, Boris Johnson, despite his bravado about exiting the European Community with or without
an agreement on October 31, is in a difficult position. Most of his initiatives have been thwarted. He was
forced to reconvene parliament after attempting to dissolve it. There are major divisions not just
amongst the political parties, but within them. The initial question as to leave or remain in the European
Union has splintered public opinion, created multiple factions within parties and within the constituent
entities of the the UK.
At this stage, the European Union is limited in its desire to negotiate with the UK. The members of the
European Union do not wish to embolden the factions that are promoting the “leave” side. The
governing body of the European Union is intent to present a united front in order to maintain its own
unity and strengthen its negotiating position.
The total return performance of the bond market as measured by the FTSE TMX Canada Universe Bond
Index for the third quarter was an increase of 1.2%. 91-day Treasury bills returned 0.4% over the same
period.
The benchmark ten-year Government of Canada bond yield declined by 0.11% over the course of the
third quarter to end the period with a 1.35% yield. Over the same period the Canadian dollar depreciated
by 0.9 cents from 76.4 cents US to 75.5 cents US.
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Our Team
Michael Sprung, CFA: Chief Investment Officer
msprung@sprunginvestment.com
• Chief Investment Officer
• More than 30 years experience in Canadian Investment industry, overseeing portfolios up to $2.5B
• Senior level positions with YMG Capital Management, Goodman & Company, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Fund,
Ontario Hydro and Cassels Blaikie & Co.
• Frequent contributor to BNN-TV,Globe & Mail, National Post and Money Sense
Fred Palik, CFA: Vice President, Fixed Income
fpalik@sprunginvestment.com
• Extensive experience in fixed income management in a variety of senior positions, primarily in the insurance
and hospital sectors.
• Member of the Toronto CFA Society and the CFA Institute.
Lois O’Sullivan, CFA: Vice President
loiso@sprunginvestment.com
More that 25 years experience in investment management.
• Co-founder of Sprucegrove Investment Management, specializing in international markets.
• Senior level roles at Confed Investment Counselling and Confederation Life Insurance Company.
• Fellow of the Life Office Management Institute (FLMI), the Toronto CFA Society and the CFA Institute.
Joie P. Watts, CFA, FSCI: Vice President & Portfolio Manager
jpwatts@sprunginvestment.com
• Over 30 years of progressive experience in the securities and investment industry.
• Senior level roles at Burns Fry Limited, Merrill Lynch Canada and Nesbitt Thomson.
• Managing Director of Instinet Canada Limited for over 10 years
• CEO of Shorcan ATS Limited, a specialized marketplace for equity dealers trading as principal.
Robert D. Champion, MSEd: Vice President, Client Services
rchampion@sprunginvestment.com
• Joined Sprung Investments Management in 2012 after severalyears with SuccessfulInvestor Wealth
Management.
• Prior to that, he had a fifteen-year career in OEM industrial sales.
• Manager with investment-publishing division of MPL Communications in the 1980s and early 1990s. MPL
publish Investor’s Digest and Investment Reporter.
Stay connected withSprung InvestmentManagement:
Twitter @SprungInvest
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See Michael on BNN Bloomberg’s Market Call http://www.sprunginvestment.com/videos/