This document discusses the socio-economic challenges facing developed countries as the baby boom generation retires between 2007-2011. This will shrink the workforce and increase the proportion of older people requiring pensions and healthcare. Outsourcing work to India is proposed as a solution to supplement the shrinking workforce in countries like Germany, France, Italy and the UK. India has a large and growing workforce that could help address labor shortages in Europe through remote work outsourcing without increasing migration pressures. The document analyzes population trends and projections in European and Indian populations to 2050 to argue that India will have a large surplus workforce available to support developed country needs.
The document discusses how increasing lifespans in Europe are putting pressure on pension systems and the social contract between governments and citizens. While the old-age dependency ratio is projected to double by 2050, only half of Europeans surveyed expressed concern over rising pension costs. Attitudes varied by country on who should pay, with most Germans and Austrians expecting the government but most Swiss and French expecting individuals. However, two-thirds of respondents wished to retire at the traditional age, despite one-third being open to continuing work. Reforms have increased retirement ages but more may be needed to encourage longer careers, like improving conditions for older workers.
FSC Future Leaders Award - Stephen FleggSteve Flegg
This document discusses policy changes that could help insulate Australia from the future economic impacts of an aging population. It identifies three key issues with the current system: 1) inadequate retirement savings among many Australians, 2) a lack of regulation around how superannuation funds are used post-retirement, and 3) inadequacies in the age pension that discourage employment and burden individuals with longevity risk. Reforming contribution caps, increasing financial assistance, regulating post-retirement spending, and restructuring the age pension are some policy solutions proposed to address these issues and better prepare Australia for its aging population.
This document summarizes and analyzes the state of retirement in the United States. It argues that while there is a real retirement crisis due to unsustainable social programs, there is also an overstated "fake" crisis about individuals not saving enough. The real crisis stems from promising more retirement benefits than can be afforded. Possible solutions include cutting benefits, raising taxes, pursuing economic growth, or using inflation to reduce the impact of debt obligations. Inaction will only make reforms more difficult.
Debt, Deficits, and Demographics: Why We Can Afford the Social ContractJesse Budlong
The emphasis on budget deficits in national policy debates over the last three decades has badly distorted national priorities. There has been an enormous amount of fundamentally confused thinking on budget deficits that has made its way into mainstream political debates. This paper shows that the potential harm from budget deficits has been seriously misrepresented and it is implausible that future generations of workers will see a decline in living standards due to the effects of an aging population. It also shows that the long-term deficit horror stories that appear frequently in public discussions are driven almost entirely by projections of exploding health care costs.
This report was originally published by the New America Foundation.
The document discusses various concepts related to development and underdevelopment including definitions, indicators, and indexes. It provides definitions for key terms like development, underdevelopment, and sustainable development. It outlines several economic and non-economic indicators used to measure development, including GDP, life expectancy, literacy rates, HDI, and GDI. It notes both advantages and disadvantages of different indicators. Composite indexes like the HPI and PQLI that incorporate multiple variables are discussed as attempts to provide a more comprehensive view of development.
The document discusses the aging population trends in Europe. It notes that by 2025 over 20% of Europeans will be over 65 years old, with rapid growth in those over 80. Several European countries like Italy and Japan are more severely affected by aging populations, with issues like declining birth rates and increased life expectancies contributing to these trends. An aging population puts pressure on healthcare systems and pensions, and reduces the ratio of workers supporting retirees. The document discusses some options for governments to address aging populations, such as immigration, increasing retirement ages, and incentives for higher birth rates.
2014.03.18 - NAEC Seminar_Assessing the vulnerabilities of social institution...OECD_NAEC
This document summarizes a presentation on the social impacts of the economic crisis and policy responses. It discusses how the crisis widened income gaps and increased poverty and financial hardship. While governments initially increased social spending, fiscal pressures later led many to implement spending cuts. This compromised the effectiveness of social policies at a time when more support was needed. The presentation argues for policies that cushion income losses, support self-sufficiency, and prioritize social investments to avoid high future costs. Social policies need to adapt to economic cycles to maintain their effectiveness during times of both growth and crisis.
The document discusses how increasing lifespans in Europe are putting pressure on pension systems and the social contract between governments and citizens. While the old-age dependency ratio is projected to double by 2050, only half of Europeans surveyed expressed concern over rising pension costs. Attitudes varied by country on who should pay, with most Germans and Austrians expecting the government but most Swiss and French expecting individuals. However, two-thirds of respondents wished to retire at the traditional age, despite one-third being open to continuing work. Reforms have increased retirement ages but more may be needed to encourage longer careers, like improving conditions for older workers.
FSC Future Leaders Award - Stephen FleggSteve Flegg
This document discusses policy changes that could help insulate Australia from the future economic impacts of an aging population. It identifies three key issues with the current system: 1) inadequate retirement savings among many Australians, 2) a lack of regulation around how superannuation funds are used post-retirement, and 3) inadequacies in the age pension that discourage employment and burden individuals with longevity risk. Reforming contribution caps, increasing financial assistance, regulating post-retirement spending, and restructuring the age pension are some policy solutions proposed to address these issues and better prepare Australia for its aging population.
This document summarizes and analyzes the state of retirement in the United States. It argues that while there is a real retirement crisis due to unsustainable social programs, there is also an overstated "fake" crisis about individuals not saving enough. The real crisis stems from promising more retirement benefits than can be afforded. Possible solutions include cutting benefits, raising taxes, pursuing economic growth, or using inflation to reduce the impact of debt obligations. Inaction will only make reforms more difficult.
Debt, Deficits, and Demographics: Why We Can Afford the Social ContractJesse Budlong
The emphasis on budget deficits in national policy debates over the last three decades has badly distorted national priorities. There has been an enormous amount of fundamentally confused thinking on budget deficits that has made its way into mainstream political debates. This paper shows that the potential harm from budget deficits has been seriously misrepresented and it is implausible that future generations of workers will see a decline in living standards due to the effects of an aging population. It also shows that the long-term deficit horror stories that appear frequently in public discussions are driven almost entirely by projections of exploding health care costs.
This report was originally published by the New America Foundation.
The document discusses various concepts related to development and underdevelopment including definitions, indicators, and indexes. It provides definitions for key terms like development, underdevelopment, and sustainable development. It outlines several economic and non-economic indicators used to measure development, including GDP, life expectancy, literacy rates, HDI, and GDI. It notes both advantages and disadvantages of different indicators. Composite indexes like the HPI and PQLI that incorporate multiple variables are discussed as attempts to provide a more comprehensive view of development.
The document discusses the aging population trends in Europe. It notes that by 2025 over 20% of Europeans will be over 65 years old, with rapid growth in those over 80. Several European countries like Italy and Japan are more severely affected by aging populations, with issues like declining birth rates and increased life expectancies contributing to these trends. An aging population puts pressure on healthcare systems and pensions, and reduces the ratio of workers supporting retirees. The document discusses some options for governments to address aging populations, such as immigration, increasing retirement ages, and incentives for higher birth rates.
2014.03.18 - NAEC Seminar_Assessing the vulnerabilities of social institution...OECD_NAEC
This document summarizes a presentation on the social impacts of the economic crisis and policy responses. It discusses how the crisis widened income gaps and increased poverty and financial hardship. While governments initially increased social spending, fiscal pressures later led many to implement spending cuts. This compromised the effectiveness of social policies at a time when more support was needed. The presentation argues for policies that cushion income losses, support self-sufficiency, and prioritize social investments to avoid high future costs. Social policies need to adapt to economic cycles to maintain their effectiveness during times of both growth and crisis.
The document summarizes key population trends in Australia from 1980 to 2020. It notes that total population is expected to increase steadily, reaching 24.7 million by 2020. The population is aging, with the largest gains occurring among those over 60. Immigration accounts for over half of population growth and the workforce is increasing faster than the total population. The number of elderly people is projected to nearly triple between 1980 and 2020.
To What Extent Are Population Policies Successfulljordan
To what extent are population policies successful? This document discusses population policies and their success in influencing birth rates. It outlines anti-natalist policies that aim to decrease birth rates through family planning, contraception, sex education, and abortion. Pro-natalist policies aim to increase birth rates using incentives like cash bonuses and tax breaks for larger families. The success of these policies depends on government commitment, public involvement, and whether they have achieved their goal of changing birth rates. Singapore is used as an example of a country that implemented policies and saw its birth rate decline, potentially endangering its future workforce and aging population.
European countries faced new social risks and challenges to their social policies as a result of economic and demographic changes following World War II. Specifically, countries experienced substantial increases in female labor participation, aging populations as birth rates declined, and labor markets demanding higher skilled workers. This led to issues like intergenerational transmission of poverty and difficulty reconciling work and family responsibilities. In response, governments implemented policies encouraging female employment but reducing fertility further. Currently, an aging population places significant burden on pension systems, forcing reforms like raising retirement ages.
This document summarizes Australia's strong economic growth over the past 25 years, with average annual GDP growth of 3.25%. Low inflation, rising real wages, and low unemployment contributed to broadly shared increases in living standards. However, it notes that some Australians have missed out on these benefits. While Australia avoided severe downturns like other countries experienced in the late 1990s and 2000s, the global financial crisis presented the biggest test, to which Australian policymakers responded swiftly with fiscal stimulus, interest rate cuts, and bank funding guarantees. Overall, the document establishes that Australia has had a strong economic platform and growth has been relatively equitable, but warns that inequality has been rising and new economic challenges could threaten continued shared prosperity.
1. Demographic changes in Japan include a declining population, very low birth rate, aging population, and an inverted population pyramid as the number of elderly increases.
2. Economically, Japan has seen little real growth, long-term deflation, stagnant real wages, and growing government debt that has not effectively reduced poverty.
3. Socio-economic changes include a growing non-standard workforce with large wage gaps between full-time and part-time workers, as well as increasing income inequality and poverty rates, especially among the elderly.
1. Japan has experienced significant demographic changes in the 21st century including declining birth rates, increasing life expectancy, and an aging population. This has led to population decline and increased the aged dependency ratio.
2. Economically, Japan has struggled with deflation and low growth since the 1990s. Per capita GDP and real wages have stagnated while government debt as a percentage of GDP has increased substantially.
3. Socioeconomically, Japan has faced issues like rising unemployment, a growing non-standard workforce, increasing income inequality, and higher poverty rates among the young and elderly. There is a perception that both poverty and inequality have increased in recent decades.
An aging population will have significant impacts on healthcare costs, the workforce, and public spending in developing countries. As the older population grows, healthcare costs will increase both inside and outside of hospitals. The workforce will shrink as fewer people are of working age, which can lower GDP growth and standards of living. Public spending will shift towards the elderly as national savings decrease over time. Policy changes are needed in healthcare, the labor market, and public spending to address these challenges and ensure affordable services for the aging population.
The UK population is aging rapidly, with the number of people over pension age projected to rise significantly in coming decades. This aging population will place greater pressure on public services like healthcare and the state pension system. It may also impact economic growth by reducing the proportion of working age people. However, an older population also presents opportunities for businesses if they adapt to changing spending patterns and demand. Policymakers will need to consider reforms to ensure public services and the welfare system remain financially sustainable in light of these demographic challenges.
How charities help to address future economic and social challenges was discussed.
The 2015 project: Ideas for the future was the main theme of the presentation. The 2015 project aims to stimulate discussion about what role charities can, and should, have in a number of areas.
Find out more about NCVO's upcoming and past events: http://www.ncvo.org.uk/training-and-events/events-listing
This document discusses the high and rising rates of young people receiving Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) benefits in Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire compared to national averages. These three states have the highest rates of adults under age 35 enrolled in SSDI. Between 2000-2013, the share of SSDI recipients under age 35 and ages 35-44 in these states increased almost four times faster than the national average. Potential explanations for Vermont's high rates include proactive efforts by state agencies to enroll young people in SSDI, out-migration of able-bodied workers, rising opioid addiction, and high rates of health insurance coverage. The document explores these explanations and trends in more detail.
1. Many MEDCs are experiencing aging populations as improved healthcare and lower birth rates lead to a higher percentage of elderly citizens.
2. An aging population can cause social, political, and economic problems as the ratio of working adults to retirees declines. It increases costs for pensions and healthcare.
3. Countries are trying strategies to address aging populations like raising retirement ages, encouraging more immigration and childbirth, and raising taxes on working people to contribute more to support retirees.
This document discusses changing perspectives on social security systems. It argues that social security is a fundamental human right recognized globally and provides important societal benefits like reducing poverty and inequality. However, social security systems have come under pressure in recent decades from economic stresses and a paradigm viewing social welfare as a trade-off for economic growth. The document advocates optimizing national social security systems within a framework of decent work and contests the view of an inevitable trade-off between social welfare and economic growth.
Poverty, Inequality and Social Policies in Brazil, 1995-2012 / Pedro H.G. Fer...EUROsociAL II
This document analyzes poverty, inequality, and social policies in Brazil from 1995 to 2012. It provides data on declining poverty rates and the Gini coefficient over this period. Several social policies contributed to reduced inequality, including the minimum wage, social security/pensions, cash transfer programs, and education/health spending. The expansion of social security coverage and increase in the minimum wage especially helped reduce poverty among the elderly. While inequality declined significantly in the 2000s, Brazil still has relatively high inequality compared to developed countries.
This document summarizes three scenarios for the future of pensions and healthcare in 2030 that were developed as part of the World Economic Forum's Financing Demographic Shifts 2030 project:
1) "The Winners and the Rest" - Global growth delays the impact of aging populations, but inequality grows as scaled-back social security systems are seen as inadequate by many.
2) "We Are in This Together" - Leaders prioritize reducing inequality and collective responsibility for social services through innovative, efficient solutions despite moderate growth.
3) "You Are on Your Own" - A prolonged economic recession overwhelms state pension/healthcare systems, forcing governments to shift responsibilities to individuals and the private sector while maintaining
Poverty, inequality and social policies in Brazil: 1995-2009UNDP Policy Centre
This document summarizes poverty, inequality, and social policies in Brazil from 1995 to 2009. It finds that after decades of stagnant or rising inequality, the Gini index declined swiftly in the 2000s, though inequality remains high. Economic growth increased average incomes much more for the poorest 20% than the richest 20%. Extreme poverty fell after reaching Brazil's Millennium Development Goal in 2007. Key social policies like education spending, minimum wage increases, social security, and cash transfers helped reduce poverty and inequality over this period.
Taxes and transfers redistribute income across OECD countries, lowering inequality. However, the equalizing effect varies widely. While redistribution has declined for almost all OECD countries since the mid-1990s, the decline was largely driven by reductions in transfers, particularly unemployment-related benefits. Reforms to personal income taxes had a smaller impact. Policy changes, including reductions in top income taxes and unemployment benefits, have contributed to falling redistribution, though some policies increased redistribution for working families.
This document summarizes a working paper that analyzes demographic policy responses to population aging and decline in developed countries. It discusses three policy areas: promoting fertility through family policies like parental leave and child benefits, increasing retirement ages and labor market policies to encourage longer working lives, and managing immigration. The paper finds that cash transfers and childcare support can modestly increase fertility rates. It also argues that retirement and labor policies need to keep older workers healthy, skilled and motivated to work longer. Immigration policies face political and economic challenges in offsetting population aging. The paper evaluates tradeoffs between these policy options in terms of their impact on extending retirement years.
This document summarizes a report by the Centre for Social Justice on further welfare reform for the next UK Parliament. It discusses:
1) Proposing a new "Youth Offer" to reduce youth unemployment through intensive support from primary school through adulthood, including career coaching, work experience, and a "Community Wage."
2) Recommending reform of Jobcentre Plus to improve job seeking support, drawing inspiration from Australia's system and introducing more competition.
3) Suggesting a focus on increasing progression in work so those who start in low-paid jobs do not get stuck there long-term.
Health and Ageing A Discussion Paper. Who nmh hps_01.1Gláucia Castro
This document discusses challenges related to population aging and proposes policies to promote active aging. It notes that the population aged 60+ is growing rapidly worldwide, especially in developing countries, straining social and economic systems. It presents five key challenges: 1) developing countries are aging rapidly before attaining wealth; 2) countries face a "double burden" of disease as chronic diseases rise alongside infectious diseases; 3) outdated views of aging need updating; 4) aging is becoming more feminized; 5) inequities in aging must be addressed. It advocates an approach called "active aging" to promote health, independence and productivity in older adults through policies across sectors.
The Eighth Global Conference of Actuaries was held in Mumbai, India and organized by the Actuarial Society of India. Over two days, the conference covered topics in life, health, general and non-life insurance. It featured keynote addresses, panel discussions, and presentations on issues facing the actuarial profession such as asset-liability management, investment guarantees, and the emerging market for outsourcing actuarial services to India. The conference highlighted the growth of the actuarial profession in India since the liberalization of the insurance industry and the energy of students pursuing new opportunities in the field.
This document summarizes a paper on motor premium rating in India. It discusses the current tariff regime for motor insurance that is leading to losses for many companies. With the likely deregulation of motor insurance tariffs, companies will need to use actuarial fundamentals to scientifically price policies. It emphasizes the importance of collecting comprehensive driver, vehicle, and policy data to analyze risk groups and determine appropriate premiums. The document provides an overview of how to calculate an adequate overall premium and determine differential ratings based on risk factors.
The document summarizes key population trends in Australia from 1980 to 2020. It notes that total population is expected to increase steadily, reaching 24.7 million by 2020. The population is aging, with the largest gains occurring among those over 60. Immigration accounts for over half of population growth and the workforce is increasing faster than the total population. The number of elderly people is projected to nearly triple between 1980 and 2020.
To What Extent Are Population Policies Successfulljordan
To what extent are population policies successful? This document discusses population policies and their success in influencing birth rates. It outlines anti-natalist policies that aim to decrease birth rates through family planning, contraception, sex education, and abortion. Pro-natalist policies aim to increase birth rates using incentives like cash bonuses and tax breaks for larger families. The success of these policies depends on government commitment, public involvement, and whether they have achieved their goal of changing birth rates. Singapore is used as an example of a country that implemented policies and saw its birth rate decline, potentially endangering its future workforce and aging population.
European countries faced new social risks and challenges to their social policies as a result of economic and demographic changes following World War II. Specifically, countries experienced substantial increases in female labor participation, aging populations as birth rates declined, and labor markets demanding higher skilled workers. This led to issues like intergenerational transmission of poverty and difficulty reconciling work and family responsibilities. In response, governments implemented policies encouraging female employment but reducing fertility further. Currently, an aging population places significant burden on pension systems, forcing reforms like raising retirement ages.
This document summarizes Australia's strong economic growth over the past 25 years, with average annual GDP growth of 3.25%. Low inflation, rising real wages, and low unemployment contributed to broadly shared increases in living standards. However, it notes that some Australians have missed out on these benefits. While Australia avoided severe downturns like other countries experienced in the late 1990s and 2000s, the global financial crisis presented the biggest test, to which Australian policymakers responded swiftly with fiscal stimulus, interest rate cuts, and bank funding guarantees. Overall, the document establishes that Australia has had a strong economic platform and growth has been relatively equitable, but warns that inequality has been rising and new economic challenges could threaten continued shared prosperity.
1. Demographic changes in Japan include a declining population, very low birth rate, aging population, and an inverted population pyramid as the number of elderly increases.
2. Economically, Japan has seen little real growth, long-term deflation, stagnant real wages, and growing government debt that has not effectively reduced poverty.
3. Socio-economic changes include a growing non-standard workforce with large wage gaps between full-time and part-time workers, as well as increasing income inequality and poverty rates, especially among the elderly.
1. Japan has experienced significant demographic changes in the 21st century including declining birth rates, increasing life expectancy, and an aging population. This has led to population decline and increased the aged dependency ratio.
2. Economically, Japan has struggled with deflation and low growth since the 1990s. Per capita GDP and real wages have stagnated while government debt as a percentage of GDP has increased substantially.
3. Socioeconomically, Japan has faced issues like rising unemployment, a growing non-standard workforce, increasing income inequality, and higher poverty rates among the young and elderly. There is a perception that both poverty and inequality have increased in recent decades.
An aging population will have significant impacts on healthcare costs, the workforce, and public spending in developing countries. As the older population grows, healthcare costs will increase both inside and outside of hospitals. The workforce will shrink as fewer people are of working age, which can lower GDP growth and standards of living. Public spending will shift towards the elderly as national savings decrease over time. Policy changes are needed in healthcare, the labor market, and public spending to address these challenges and ensure affordable services for the aging population.
The UK population is aging rapidly, with the number of people over pension age projected to rise significantly in coming decades. This aging population will place greater pressure on public services like healthcare and the state pension system. It may also impact economic growth by reducing the proportion of working age people. However, an older population also presents opportunities for businesses if they adapt to changing spending patterns and demand. Policymakers will need to consider reforms to ensure public services and the welfare system remain financially sustainable in light of these demographic challenges.
How charities help to address future economic and social challenges was discussed.
The 2015 project: Ideas for the future was the main theme of the presentation. The 2015 project aims to stimulate discussion about what role charities can, and should, have in a number of areas.
Find out more about NCVO's upcoming and past events: http://www.ncvo.org.uk/training-and-events/events-listing
This document discusses the high and rising rates of young people receiving Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) benefits in Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire compared to national averages. These three states have the highest rates of adults under age 35 enrolled in SSDI. Between 2000-2013, the share of SSDI recipients under age 35 and ages 35-44 in these states increased almost four times faster than the national average. Potential explanations for Vermont's high rates include proactive efforts by state agencies to enroll young people in SSDI, out-migration of able-bodied workers, rising opioid addiction, and high rates of health insurance coverage. The document explores these explanations and trends in more detail.
1. Many MEDCs are experiencing aging populations as improved healthcare and lower birth rates lead to a higher percentage of elderly citizens.
2. An aging population can cause social, political, and economic problems as the ratio of working adults to retirees declines. It increases costs for pensions and healthcare.
3. Countries are trying strategies to address aging populations like raising retirement ages, encouraging more immigration and childbirth, and raising taxes on working people to contribute more to support retirees.
This document discusses changing perspectives on social security systems. It argues that social security is a fundamental human right recognized globally and provides important societal benefits like reducing poverty and inequality. However, social security systems have come under pressure in recent decades from economic stresses and a paradigm viewing social welfare as a trade-off for economic growth. The document advocates optimizing national social security systems within a framework of decent work and contests the view of an inevitable trade-off between social welfare and economic growth.
Poverty, Inequality and Social Policies in Brazil, 1995-2012 / Pedro H.G. Fer...EUROsociAL II
This document analyzes poverty, inequality, and social policies in Brazil from 1995 to 2012. It provides data on declining poverty rates and the Gini coefficient over this period. Several social policies contributed to reduced inequality, including the minimum wage, social security/pensions, cash transfer programs, and education/health spending. The expansion of social security coverage and increase in the minimum wage especially helped reduce poverty among the elderly. While inequality declined significantly in the 2000s, Brazil still has relatively high inequality compared to developed countries.
This document summarizes three scenarios for the future of pensions and healthcare in 2030 that were developed as part of the World Economic Forum's Financing Demographic Shifts 2030 project:
1) "The Winners and the Rest" - Global growth delays the impact of aging populations, but inequality grows as scaled-back social security systems are seen as inadequate by many.
2) "We Are in This Together" - Leaders prioritize reducing inequality and collective responsibility for social services through innovative, efficient solutions despite moderate growth.
3) "You Are on Your Own" - A prolonged economic recession overwhelms state pension/healthcare systems, forcing governments to shift responsibilities to individuals and the private sector while maintaining
Poverty, inequality and social policies in Brazil: 1995-2009UNDP Policy Centre
This document summarizes poverty, inequality, and social policies in Brazil from 1995 to 2009. It finds that after decades of stagnant or rising inequality, the Gini index declined swiftly in the 2000s, though inequality remains high. Economic growth increased average incomes much more for the poorest 20% than the richest 20%. Extreme poverty fell after reaching Brazil's Millennium Development Goal in 2007. Key social policies like education spending, minimum wage increases, social security, and cash transfers helped reduce poverty and inequality over this period.
Taxes and transfers redistribute income across OECD countries, lowering inequality. However, the equalizing effect varies widely. While redistribution has declined for almost all OECD countries since the mid-1990s, the decline was largely driven by reductions in transfers, particularly unemployment-related benefits. Reforms to personal income taxes had a smaller impact. Policy changes, including reductions in top income taxes and unemployment benefits, have contributed to falling redistribution, though some policies increased redistribution for working families.
This document summarizes a working paper that analyzes demographic policy responses to population aging and decline in developed countries. It discusses three policy areas: promoting fertility through family policies like parental leave and child benefits, increasing retirement ages and labor market policies to encourage longer working lives, and managing immigration. The paper finds that cash transfers and childcare support can modestly increase fertility rates. It also argues that retirement and labor policies need to keep older workers healthy, skilled and motivated to work longer. Immigration policies face political and economic challenges in offsetting population aging. The paper evaluates tradeoffs between these policy options in terms of their impact on extending retirement years.
This document summarizes a report by the Centre for Social Justice on further welfare reform for the next UK Parliament. It discusses:
1) Proposing a new "Youth Offer" to reduce youth unemployment through intensive support from primary school through adulthood, including career coaching, work experience, and a "Community Wage."
2) Recommending reform of Jobcentre Plus to improve job seeking support, drawing inspiration from Australia's system and introducing more competition.
3) Suggesting a focus on increasing progression in work so those who start in low-paid jobs do not get stuck there long-term.
Health and Ageing A Discussion Paper. Who nmh hps_01.1Gláucia Castro
This document discusses challenges related to population aging and proposes policies to promote active aging. It notes that the population aged 60+ is growing rapidly worldwide, especially in developing countries, straining social and economic systems. It presents five key challenges: 1) developing countries are aging rapidly before attaining wealth; 2) countries face a "double burden" of disease as chronic diseases rise alongside infectious diseases; 3) outdated views of aging need updating; 4) aging is becoming more feminized; 5) inequities in aging must be addressed. It advocates an approach called "active aging" to promote health, independence and productivity in older adults through policies across sectors.
The Eighth Global Conference of Actuaries was held in Mumbai, India and organized by the Actuarial Society of India. Over two days, the conference covered topics in life, health, general and non-life insurance. It featured keynote addresses, panel discussions, and presentations on issues facing the actuarial profession such as asset-liability management, investment guarantees, and the emerging market for outsourcing actuarial services to India. The conference highlighted the growth of the actuarial profession in India since the liberalization of the insurance industry and the energy of students pursuing new opportunities in the field.
This document summarizes a paper on motor premium rating in India. It discusses the current tariff regime for motor insurance that is leading to losses for many companies. With the likely deregulation of motor insurance tariffs, companies will need to use actuarial fundamentals to scientifically price policies. It emphasizes the importance of collecting comprehensive driver, vehicle, and policy data to analyze risk groups and determine appropriate premiums. The document provides an overview of how to calculate an adequate overall premium and determine differential ratings based on risk factors.
This document summarizes a paper analyzing mortality variations across India. It finds that overall mortality rates declined between 1971 and 1996 censuses. Female mortality rates were consistently lower than male rates. Life expectancy increased substantially from 1970-75 to 1993-97, though rural rates remained below urban. About 36% of the population lives below the poverty line, and their mortality is likely heavier than the overall population mortality captured in census data. Assured lives mortality from insurance data is even lighter than population mortality due to selection effects excluding high-risk individuals.
Treasury Risk Management_Summit_Sonjai Kumar_ALM Life Ins_v2Sonjai Kumar, SIRM
Assets and liability management (ALM) is necessary for life insurance companies to manage financial risks and ensure financial health. ALM involves matching the term, nature, and currency of assets to the liabilities to manage risks like interest rate risk. In India, most products transitioned from unit-linked to traditional products with maturity guarantees after 2010, increasing ALM risk. Simple ALM measures include duration matching, cash flow matching, and strategic asset allocation within regulatory limits and risk appetite. An example shows potential losses from reinvesting at lower future interest rates.
The document discusses the role of actuaries in enterprise risk management (ERM). It outlines how ERM has evolved in response to major risk failures over the past two decades. Actuaries traditionally focused on areas like pricing, valuation, and modeling, but now have an expanded role under Solvency II and a broader ERM approach. The document provides examples of how actuaries can assess and manage risks in both the insurance and banking industries using common tools and their quantitative skills. It suggests actuaries will need additional training to work in risk management for banks but their skills are well-suited to help various industries with ERM.
This document discusses two perspectives - the business perspective and the design perspective - and argues that the best approach is to combine both. The business perspective focuses on minimizing risks and understanding the future, while the design perspective focuses on using the right methods to create the right solution in the present. Both perspectives are essential, and the optimal solution comes from bringing the two together in a holistic manner that draws on different fields of knowledge and allows the problem and solution to evolve organically.
The mansion was grand, with an elegant curved staircase that led to a second floor balcony overlooking the foyer below. A massive crystal chandelier hung from the two-story ceiling, its light sparkling off the marble floors and gilded trim throughout the entryway. Though aged, the home still retained hints of its former glory through architectural details that transported visitors back to a bygone era of opulence and wealth.
Role of Actuaries in Enterprise Risk Management Sonjai_Rajiv(17 GCA) Final CopySonjai Kumar, SIRM
Actuaries have traditionally been involved in risk identification and measurement in insurance, particularly for mortality, lapse, expense, and interest rate risk. However, the role of actuaries is expanding to enterprise risk management (ERM) in insurance and other financial sectors like banking. Actuaries' quantitative skills make them well-suited for ERM tasks like calculating economic capital, value at risk, and stress testing across various risk types. The Solvency II regulations also provide opportunities for actuaries to be involved in all three pillars of the solvency framework. For actuaries to take on broader ERM roles, they need to enhance their skills in areas like credit, liquidity, and operational risk management.
This short document promotes creating presentations using Haiku Deck on SlideShare. It encourages the reader to get started making their own Haiku Deck presentation by providing a button to click to begin the process. The document is advertising the creation of presentations on Haiku Deck and SlideShare.
The document lists crowns awarded to winners and hosts of the "Nattens Dronning" competition from 2011-2014, including a UV-reflective crown for the 2011 winner and standard crowns for the winners of 2012-2014 and host of 2013.
This document serves as a track record for various projects Anders Vesterholm has completed, including:
1) A master's thesis focusing on insights development and problem framing for a crafts retailer. Various research methods were used to understand customers and identify strategic segments.
2) Design of a self-care website for diabetes patients, involving interviews, observations, and a codesign game. This led to a design manual and recommendations now being implemented.
3) Rebranding of a clothing label using research, prototyping, and a new brand identity focused on Scandinavian design. The restructured business is now more successful.
4) Developing a smart home control system by understanding user frustr
This document discusses the laws of dry friction and coefficients of friction. It explains that when a horizontal force is applied to a block on a surface, a static friction force develops to counter the force and keep the block in equilibrium until the force reaches the maximum static friction limit. It also describes how angles of friction can be used and provides examples of problems involving dry friction, such as determining if a block will remain at rest or slide down an inclined plane.
Slovakia has a high rate of car ownership per capita and is a major car producer. Slovakia also has high levels of educational attainment, with 90% of Slovaks completing secondary education, which is the highest rate in the European Union. Slovakian women have among the youngest average marriage ages in the EU at 24 years old and Slovakian women on average have 1.33 children, which is one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe.
This document discusses sparking student interest through inquiry-based learning projects using natural materials. It encourages teachers to find ways to ignite curiosity in students and have them authentically document their inquiries and discoveries. Various strategies are presented, such as using accessible word walls and incorporating interesting natural objects into lessons to help keep students engaged and support purposeful writing.
From Android Kitkat, Google has decided to look more into Design aspects of Android. As an OS that powers Mobile and Wearables and has a market share of 80%, there are a lot of developers who develop apps for Android, while not keeping Design in mind.
Android Anti-Patterns are various patterns that are known to be followed on Android but are considered to be a strict no-no in terms of UI and UX guidelines.
As of 2014, with Android Lollipop in mind, the slide covers all the possible common Anti Patterns that were followed by Developers and Designers on their apps on the Play Store.
This Slide was made to educate aspiring developers to use the correct principles before designing their app's UI.
This was presented at VJTI College, Mumbai in December, 2014 - courtesy of GDG Mumbai.
El documento presenta una serie de fotografías de Anita Yuquilema y su familia en diferentes eventos y lugares como Guamote y Guano, incluyendo fotos con amigos, familiares y en celebraciones como el cumpleaños de su sobrino Kury.
This document provides a detailed summary of the 1986 Supreme Court case Bowers v. Hardwick. The case originated from Michael Hardwick being arrested under Georgia's law banning sodomy after a police officer witnessed Hardwick engaging in homosexual activity in his home. Hardwick sued the state, arguing the law violated his constitutional right to privacy. The 11th Circuit Court ruled in Hardwick's favor, but the state appealed to the Supreme Court. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on March 31, 1986. Michael Hobbs argued for the state of Georgia that there is no fundamental right to engage in homosexual sodomy. Laurence Tribe argued for Hardwick that the law violated privacy rights. The Supreme Court ultimately ruled 5-4 in favor of
Pro-natalist and Anti-natalist policiesOral Johnson
The document discusses population policies implemented by various countries around the world, including both pro-natalist and anti-natalist policies. It describes France's pro-natalist policies that provide incentives like paid parental leave and subsidies to encourage families to have more children. It also discusses China's former one-child policy, aimed at controlling its rapidly growing population through restrictions and penalties for additional children. The policy led to benefits of reducing population growth but also problems like an aging population and social impacts from the restrictions.
Ielts writing task 2 – topic world – sample 6IELTSbox.com
As life expectancy increases in developed nations, populations are aging which will cause problems. More people will be eligible for pensions, placing greater tax burdens on working adults to support retired populations. Demand for healthcare and care for elderly relatives will also rise. However, governments can take steps to mitigate these issues. They could increase retirement ages since people remain productive longer now. Immigration could boost the working population. And funding needs to support growing numbers of elderly citizens through healthcare, housing, and transportation. With measures like these, societies can address challenges of aging populations.
An ageing population is caused by declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. This has led to a declining youth population and growing elderly population in countries like the UK. A population pyramid is used to show the structure of a population by age and gender. Countries with ageing populations face economic and social challenges supporting older dependents on working age populations. Issues include higher healthcare costs, pension crises, and declining tax bases.
The document discusses demographic transition and demographic dividend. It begins by explaining demographic transition as the stages a country goes through when transitioning from non-industrial to industrial. It then defines demographic dividend as the economic growth resulting from changes in a country's population age structure, mainly when the working age population is larger than the non-working populations. The document provides details on India's current demographic dividend, including that India has one of the youngest populations globally and its working age population recently grew larger than the dependent population. Finally, it discusses the challenges of an aging global population, including rising healthcare costs and fewer working age people to support more retired individuals.
This summarizes a document analyzing Germany's declining birth rate and population and the government's efforts to address it.
Germany's fertility rate has declined over the last 40 years and remained below replacement level. With an aging population, the government fears population decline. It has instituted incentives like childcare, paid parental leave, monthly child payments, but experts say these have not increased the fertility rate.
Cultural factors may discourage childbearing, as working mothers can be seen negatively. A shortage of childcare and schools open only until noon also makes it difficult for working parents. Despite government payments, having children is still seen as costly. Even as immigration has increased recently, Germany's future population decline seems inevitable unless more is done
A R T I C L E STHE AGING OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION AND ITS.docxransayo
A R T I C L E S
THE AGING OF THE WORLD’S POPULATION AND ITS
EFFECTS ON GLOBAL BUSINESS
MASUD CHAND
Wichita State University
ROSALIE L. TUNG
Simon Fraser University
The rapid aging of the world’s population will bring unprecedented and important
changes in the global economic environment, creating unique challenges and oppor-
tunities for businesses worldwide. These challenges and opportunities span multiple
business areas, including strategy, human resources, cross-cultural management, and
marketing, while operating simultaneously at the functional, corporate, and public
policy levels nationally and internationally. In this paper, we first present an overview
of the aging situation globally and the challenges that result from it. Then we explain
some of the reasons behind demographic shifts in different countries, and how a
graying population affects macroeconomic systems. Finally, we analyze the implica-
tions for businesses, in terms of both opportunities and challenges, and provide
insights on how businesses can cope with these changes. We explain our findings
through several themes that emerge from our research and discuss their implications
for global businesses.
Declining birthrates and rising life expectancies
in many countries are causing a seismic demo-
graphic transformation, and this transformation—
the rapid aging of the world’s population—is bring-
ing about unparalleled changes in the global
business environment in terms of business oppor-
tunities, workforce productivity, cross-cultural
management, marketing, macroeconomic public
policies, and corporate strategy. According to the
United Nations World Population Aging Report
(UN Population Division, 2005), this process is tak-
ing place in all but 18 countries (mostly in sub-
Saharan Africa). For most of human history, the
elderly (those over 65) have never exceeded 3% or
4% of a country’s population. In today’s developed
world, they comprise roughly 15% of the popula-
tion. By 2050, this could reach 25% on average
(Center for Strategic and International Studies,
2011). The aging of the population in most coun-
tries of the world is leading to important changes in
the global economic environment— changes that
create unique and unprecedented challenges and
opportunities for businesses.
Aging occurs when the median age of a country
or region rises due to prolonged life expectancy
and/or declining birthrates. While aging is a world-
wide phenomenon, its effects have been dramati-
cally evident in developed countries so far: The
overall median age in developed countries (corre-
sponding figures for the world as a whole appear in
parentheses) rose from 29.0 (23.9) in 1950 to 39.6
(28.1) in 2009, and is forecasted to rise to 45.5
(37.8) by 2050. In addition, the pace of aging is
projected to accelerate in developing countries: By
2050, the worldwide population of people over 60
will reach two billion, three-quarters of whom
will be from developing countries (Australian In-
stitu.
Dr. Roby Nathanson discusses the demographic challenges facing countries in the 21st century due to population aging. All Western countries will see aging populations as fertility rates decline and life expectancy increases. This will stress economic growth, labor markets, and public finances as the ratio of working age to retired people falls. Countries must reform policies like pensions, health care, employment and education to adapt social security systems and encourage things like lifelong learning and extended careers. Preventative measures are key to addressing the social and economic implications of population aging.
Micro Pensions - Helping the Poor to Save for the FutureAegon
Micro pensions offer a simple and effective means to alleviate the problem of persistent old-age poverty in emerging economies facing rapid population aging. They enable voluntary savings for old age among lower income individuals. There is significant potential demand and willingness among the working poor to participate in micro pension programs. However, providing pensions to large numbers of informal workers in developing countries poses socioeconomic challenges given low coverage of existing social security systems and a lack of resources to support aging populations. Microfinance institutions are increasingly diversifying their products to include pensions and other savings instruments in response to market saturation of microcredit.
Saying Goodbye To One Crisis and Hello To The NextEdward Hugh
- The last crisis was caused by heavily indebted societies struggling to return to growth after the crisis. This process is structural due to demographic changes, not cyclical.
- Differences in debt levels between countries like Germany and Spain can be explained by the timing of their credit-driven private consumption booms and the age of their populations.
- While the worst of the last crisis is over, future crises may be driven by population aging in countries around the world, which will impact patterns of saving, borrowing, asset prices, and sovereign debt levels. Understanding these demographic forces is key to addressing the next potential crisis.
Policy Debate: Longevity, health and public policy. How should policy-makers ...ILC- UK
Launch of ILC-UK Factpack, Ageing, longevity and demographic change, Supported by Legal & General
his important briefing event, for journalists and senior policy-makers and opinion formers, set out the latest evidence on longevity and explore the extent to which government and business (financial services industry) is responding to the challenges. We will consider the extent to which longevity is influencing government and business decisions and how media and policy-makers can help to ensure that important longevity issues are taken into account.
For example, the Government has set out plans to increase the state pension age to 66 years from 2018, and 67 years from 2026. They have also announced plans to automatically link state pension age with increased longevity.
Whilst the driver of change has partly been the need for Government to cut spending and make fiscal savings, there is also a recognition that people will be spending an increasing proportion of their lives in retirement. Although we may be living longer on average, many are likely to be doing so in poor health. In parts of the country life expectancy is much lower than the UK average.
In addition, on 26th June the Government will announce its latest spending review. The impact of future spending demands of an ageing society will undoubtedly influence this review so the event will consider the extent to which Government’s current spending priorities have adequately taken into account long term demographic change and how the private sector can contribute.
The event took place just after the launch of the latest Office of Budget Responsibility fiscal sustainability report which set out the long term impact of ageing on fiscal sustainability. In its 2012 report, the OBR said; “The public finances are likely to come under pressure over the longer term, primarily as a result of an ageing population.”
ILC-UK launched a new factpack, Ageing, longevity and demographic change, which has been produced with the support of Legal & General. The factpack will help those with an interest in population ageing and longevity to quickly access key, relevant statistics.
Speakers: Baroness Sally Greengross, ILC-UK; Kerrigan Procter, Legal & General; Joseph Lu, Legal & General; Professor Les Mayhew, Cass Business School; Professor Michael Murphy, London School of Economics; Tim Gosden, Legal & General; David Sinclair, ILC-UK.
The document discusses the challenges facing Social Security as the baby boomer generation retires. As life expectancy increases and more baby boomers retire, there will be fewer workers paying into Social Security to support the growing number of retirees collecting benefits. This will strain Social Security's finances unless changes are made. The document proposes examining data on Social Security's current state and future projections to develop a plan that would adjust the retirement age, benefits amounts, and payroll taxes to help ensure the long-term sustainability of Social Security.
This document summarizes a study that analyzed historical time series data from 14 high and middle-income countries from 1936 to 2005 to examine the association between economic recessions/booms and maternal and infant mortality rates. The results suggest that recessions had a modest but significant association with higher mortality rates, particularly in earlier periods from 1936 to 1965. However, the effects varied widely between countries. Some countries like Japan and Canada saw higher vulnerability to economic shocks in the postwar period, while mortality rates in countries like the UK, Italy and US appeared less affected by economic fluctuations. Overall, the data indicate that recessions can negatively impact health outcomes, especially in earlier stages of development, though the relationship has weakened over time as economies grow.
Does Immigration help with our long term ageing problems?Edward Hugh
The document discusses the challenges posed by global population aging trends. It notes that the proportion of the world's population over 65 is projected to more than double by 2050. This aging is due to declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Countries with long-standing low fertility rates below replacement levels, like those in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, will see the most rapid aging. This aging will profoundly affect economic growth prospects and dominate public finance policy debates as the costs of caring for older populations increases. While immigration can help address some aging challenges, it is not a complete solution and structural reforms will still be needed.
The document discusses population structures and how they are represented using population pyramids. It provides examples of population pyramids for different countries at different stages of the demographic transition model and how they change over time based on birth and death rates. It also discusses the implications of youthful and aging populations, providing case studies of the Gambia and UK respectively.
The document discusses the problems caused by aging populations and what governments are doing to address them. As the proportion of retired people grows, they will make up a larger share of the population and costs related to healthcare, pensions, and elderly services will rise significantly. To combat these challenges, governments are taking steps like raising the retirement age to keep older workers in the workforce longer, providing incentives for higher birth rates, and encouraging immigration to boost the working population. Governments are also promoting personal retirement savings and developing more elderly care facilities to help support aging societies.
1) The document discusses the epidemiology of aging, including definitions of aging and key demographic trends. It notes that the world's population over age 60 will more than double by 2050 to over 2 billion people.
2) The biology of aging is complex and involves physical, psychological, and social changes in individuals over time. Theories of aging include mutation accumulation, antagonistic pleiotropy, and the disposable soma theory.
3) Mechanisms of aging at the cellular level include cell turnover and senescence, telomere shortening, oxidative stress, and changes in nutrient sensing pathways over time. Senescent cells can promote inflammation as they cease dividing.
Why Baby Boomers Will Need To Work Longerlalitranka
Most US baby boomers are unprepared for retirement financially and will need to work longer to avoid a decline in living standards. Research shows that increasing the median retirement age by 2 years could add $13 trillion to GDP over 30 years and cut in half the number of unprepared households. However, barriers like healthcare costs, laws, and corporate attitudes need to change to allow and encourage longer careers for older workers. Adjusting policies around health insurance, flexible work arrangements, and pensions could help boomers and the economy.
The document discusses whether the US economy has truly recovered from the Great Recession. While GDP and corporate profits have increased since the recession, the author argues that the quality of life for most Americans, especially the bottom 99%, has not significantly improved or has deteriorated. Unemployment rates only consider those actively looking for work and do not account for discouraged workers, and labor participation is at a 38-year low. The author believes inequality has increased and many Americans remain unemployed or underemployed, indicating the economy has not fully recovered for most.
China is facing rapid population aging in the coming decades which will pose severe challenges. The number of Chinese aged 65 and older is projected to increase from less than 100 million currently to over 200 million by 2007 and over 300 million by 2036, accounting for 20% of the total population. This will create financial and social pressures as China has a less developed social support system compared to developed countries experiencing aging. The government is developing policies to address aging issues like healthcare financing and long-term care, but China may struggle to allocate enough resources to support the needs of its growing elderly population.
Similar to Socio Economic Implication_Sonjai Kumar (19)
1. Risk monitoring plays a pivotal role in the risk management process by assessing if previous risk management actions reduced residual risks or if changes require revised actions.
2. It provides early warning signals of risks changing or emerging risks by monitoring key risk indicators and outcomes.
3. Emerging risks identified through monitoring may impact strategies, so monitoring helps re-align strategies to changing internal and external environments over the long-term.
This presentation was given in International Management Institute (IMI), New Delhi on 19th May 2017. This was given to the One year Executive management students.
3rd Asia Conference on risk based capital (Manila 29 30 March-17)Sonjai Kumar, SIRM
This presentation was given at the 3rd Asia Conference in Risk Based Capital on 29th and 30th March 2017 in Manila. This presentation was in the context of Philipinnes moving to the second phase of RBC. The Conference organized by Asia Insurance Review
Moving towards RBC- in the context of Indian Insurance MarketSonjai Kumar, SIRM
The regulator in India is moving towards adopting a risk-based capital framework, though it has not been implemented yet. Currently, capital requirements are based on a solvency I approach and do not directly account for risk. However, the regulator has taken several steps in recent years similar to risk-based systems by requiring greater financial disclosures, stress testing, and governance guidelines. A committee recommended adopting a "twin peaks" model, where current solvency norms would work alongside new risk-based capital requirements, as India prepares to fully transition to a risk-based capital framework.
Role of Enterprise Risk Management in Risk Based CapitalSonjai Kumar, SIRM
This presentation is given in the First South Asian Actuarial Conference held in Colombo on 12th and 13th July 2017.
The presentation is on how does risk management can help in optimizing the capital requirement in the life insurance industry
This document summarizes the key topics presented at the National Conference on Finance and Economics 2016 in Lucknow, India. The conference aimed to promote research at the intersection of economics and finance and bring together researchers, practitioners and policymakers. The presentation discusses the relationship between the economy and insurance sector, how macroeconomic factors impact insurance businesses, and the potential effects of global risks like geopolitical, environmental and economic risks on the Indian economy and insurance industry. It provides an overview of historical insurance and economic trends in India.
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are important risk management tools used by banks and insurance companies. VaR measures potential losses within a given probability level but fails to capture losses in the tail of a distribution. Stress testing assesses the impact of potential adverse scenarios by stressing key risk factors. It helps entities understand their risk profile and maintain adequate capital. Stress testing in the life insurance sector helps assess risks related to business planning, products, assets/liabilities, and capital. Both sensitivity testing (small changes to factors) and scenario testing (alternative future states) are used. The success of stress testing depends on using appropriate scenarios, management/board understanding of results, and realistic action plans. Regulators also require stress
The document discusses the influence of the insurance sector on the Indian economy and vice versa. It notes that the life insurance market in India is expected to grow significantly over the next 10 years. While insurance penetration and density have increased, they remain lower than other developed countries, indicating significant potential for future growth. The relationship between economic factors like GDP growth, disposable income, and the insurance sector is explored. Challenges and opportunities for future growth of the insurance sector in India are also highlighted.
This document discusses risk management in the life insurance industry. It provides an overview of enterprise risk management (ERM), how risk management has evolved globally and in India, and the future of risk management. Key points include:
- ERM takes a holistic approach to risk management across the entire company rather than operating in silos. It helps optimize business performance through risk-based decision making.
- Globally, risk management is increasingly important with the adoption of solvency regulations like Solvency II in Europe and risk-based capital standards. India currently follows a formula-based Solvency I approach but is showing increased interest in risk management.
- The future of risk management in India involves greater
1) The global financial crisis highlighted failures in risk management and corporate governance at many major financial institutions. Risk management departments lacked prestige compared to trading operations and did not enforce prudent risk practices.
2) Boards of directors did not adequately oversee risk and failed to establish qualified risk management committees. Many directors lacked banking experience.
3) High-risk activities and compensation were not properly aligned with long-term company interests. Bonuses encouraged excessive short-term risk-taking.
4) Risk managers lacked understanding of complex products and risks. Early warnings of liquidity issues were ignored without implementing contingency plans. Over-reliance on credit ratings also contributed to problems.
This document summarizes a paper that analyzes critical illness rates in India for cardiovascular diseases, strokes, and cancer. Some key findings include:
1. Coronary heart disease is more prevalent in India than cancer, unlike in the UK where cancer is more common. Heart disease rates in India are expected to increase significantly in the coming decades.
2. Both males and females in India have higher rates of coronary heart disease compared to counterparts in the UK, especially at younger ages.
3. Stroke rates are much lower in India compared to the UK.
4. Cancer rates in India are higher for both males and females up to age 60, after which UK rates become higher.
5.
ERM provides a framework for capital allocation, optimizing return, and managing projects under a company's risk and return objectives. It helps companies understand their risk appetite and allocate capital accordingly, while monitoring risks and reporting so risks remain in line with the risk appetite over the long term. ERM thus gives a company a holistic view of its overall risk profile to help ensure the sustainable achievement of its objectives.
This book provides a summary of 100 tips for managing insurance capital under the Solvency II regulatory framework. The book is written for a wide audience, including CFOs, actuaries, risk managers, and others. It explains capital management concepts, Solvency II details, stress testing, and other risk-based solvency approaches. The writing style is explanatory and the book includes appendices to help explain complex topics. It offers insights and ideas applicable to different roles for understanding and optimizing capital requirements.
1. The document discusses challenges in calculating the duration of liabilities for regular premium paying life insurance products due to changing signs of liability cash flows over the life of the product.
2. It proposes using the first derivative of assets and liability cash flows rather than duration as a better method for asset and liability management to match their interest rate sensitivity.
3. Adjusting the timing and amounts of asset cash flows can help optimize matching between the first derivatives of assets and liabilities to better manage interest rate risk.
1. 10th
Global Conference of Actuaries
Socio-economic implications of retiring baby boom generation people, shrinking
workforce in the developed economy and proposed solution
By Sonjai Kumar
Abstract
This paper talks about the socio-economic problems that would arise when the baby boom
generation people will eventually start retiring between 2007 and 2011 in the developed countries.
This paper advocates that how the Indian workforce can supplement the shortage that would likely
to be experienced by the developed countries. In this paper, four European countries are
considered (Germany, France, Italy and UK) for the purpose of study. In these developed countries,
due to advancement in medical sciences and therefore increasing life expectancy, the proportion of
population aged above 65 is increasing. The fertility rates are low in these countries because of the
modern life style of young generations, increased focus on career and generally little inclination
towards bearing children. This puts considerable pressure on the workforce as they end up paying
higher per capita taxes to the government to fund for pension, health care and housing. Some
countries such as the USA, UK, and Germany have been outsourcing some of their work to India
and other third world countries over the last few years to take the advantage of cheaper and yet
skilled workforce. The money saved through outsourcing can be re-invested in these countries that
outsource to help solve some of the socio-economic problems that will arise when the baby
boomers will eventually start retiring between 2007-2011 (when they turn between 60 and 65). If
outsourcing is indeed considered an option to this shrinking workforce, then how long current and
future outsourcing will last in India? This paper also considers the population dynamics in terms of
ageing population, out sourcing and social security by 2050?
1. Introduction
The baby boom period for the developed countries was the post second world war period until the
1960s. In France, the population growth in 1950s and 1960s was 1% per annum highest growth in
the history of France. The two Germany in late 1950s and 1960s experienced baby boom
generation simulated by increased prosperity. The West Germany peaked birth 1.3 million reached
in 1965. In Australia, the baby boom generation period was 1946-1964 when more than four million
babies were born. In UK between 1945 and 1965, around seventeen million babies were born. In
Japan, the period between 1947-1949 is considered the baby boom generation. In US, the baby
boom generation period was between 1946-1964 when seventy five million babies were born
whereas in Canada, the baby boom generation period was 1947-1966. Most of the babies born in
the baby boom period will turn 60 by around 2006-7 and 65 by around 2011-12 and will eventually
retire from the active workforce. Unless this retiring generation is to be replaced there will be a
vacuum in the working population.
The problem
Due to improvements in medical sciences, now successive generation is expected to live longer.
This has lead to increasing life span that may lead to certain problems. The one problem is on
pricing the annuity rates, as improvement in mortality is to be taken into account that require
judgment about the future mortality else things may go wrong. Another problem is increasing cost
of providing pensions and health related benefits to the retired people to be borne by the
governments where social security system is quite comprehensive.
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The consequence of improvement in mortality resulting in increasing life expectancy means that
those receiving pensions will receive it for a longer duration. The pensions, which are not funded,
the governments have to find some means to cover the extra cost . On the other hand as the
fertility rate decreases, those dying due to old age are not replaced by the new born babies to
maintain the equilibrium between workforce and retiring people. As a result of this, the process of
life and death is halted by the old age people resulting in higher proportion of old age people over
the total population. This also implies that the workforce (15 to 65 years of age) are also decreasing
as a proportion of old age people. This leads to some social security problems for the governments.
The problem is more sever in the developed countries where workforce funds for social security
through taxes. In countries where social security system is more generous, may force working
population to exist from the workforce and retire early and obtain generous benefits from the
government leading into further shrinking in the work force.
2. Various solutions suggested by different governments in the developed countries to
solve social security problems
As different governments of developed countries are foreseeing the problem that is going to arise
after the retirement of baby boom generation people, the governments have suggested various
solutions to the problem. Every suggested solution has some merits and demerits. To gauge the
magnitude of problem, consider an example of Germany and see its population dynamics.
It can be seen from the table-1 below that the projected German population are decreasing
drastically, the workforce which is 67.3% of the total population in 2004 and people aged 65+ are
18% of total population, the workforce reduces to 56.5% in 2050 and the retired community
increases to 31.6%.
Table-1
in millions
Age Actual Pop-2004Actual Pop-2025Actual Pop-2050
0-14 12.13 10.59 8.88
15-64 55.54 51.32 42.17
65+ 14.86 20.20 23.59
Source eurostat: April 2005
Lets us see some of the solutions suggested by the different governments.
Increased workforce participation
Some of the governments in Europe have suggested that if the workforce is increased, that is, more
participation of workforce or higher employment rate, the government can earn extra taxes from
extra employment that can be diverted into fund of social security. This has a logical argument but
this also leads to a problem that those who will join the service will eventually retire and will receive
the pension and other old age benefits. If more workforces are not added in future when these
extra workforces retires, the governments will again face the same problem of funding for their
pension and other health care facilities.
Increase in retirement age
Some countries are working towards finding the solution by increasing the retirement age to get
extra years of work and less number of years of pension payment. In the period between 2001 and
2012, the German pension age will be raised to 65 years for both sexes. In Britain pension age will
be raised from 60 years to 65 years in the period 2010 to 2020. In Italy, the pension age is to be
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raised to 60 years for women and 65 years to men. Increasing retirement age is one of the possible
solutions to increase fund for social security but it also has some issues. Some of the issues related
to increasing the retirement age are, unrest among unemployed and also increase in unemployment
rate. This also infringes the right of the elderly in the society to retire. In France in 1997, there was
unrest with the workers demanding the right to retire at the age of 55. So increasing the retirement
age is not all that of solution, though this provides some respite of reducing pension payment
period.
Increase in birth rate
At a first instance, it sounds that increase in the birth rate is one of the possible solutions of this
problem, however, the secret is hidden under the concept. When the birth rate is increased this has
two immediate repercussions. One is, with the increase in the birth rate, there is a time lag of 20 to
25 years before newborn babies start giving results in terms of participating in the workforce.
During the time lag period (20 to 25 years), the government has to find some alternative solutions
of finding extra workforce. This also means that the governments should be ready for the overall
expansion of the population and hence the economic growth. This will depend on the overall
philosophy of the government on population growth. If any government decides to increase the
population level such that the dependency ratio in 2050 will be same as 2004, then the government
must also increase the economic growth to a level such that people in 2050 can enjoy all the
material benefits as in 2004, otherwise, country can become economically weaker. The second
effect which is , that all the growth in the population will lead further to chocking of population at
the upper end of the funnel when they become old and eventually start receiving the pension and
other old age benefits.
Increase in migration rate
The inward migration of population from the third world countries may solve problem temporarily
and instantly as it can provide an instant increase in population in the workforce age group. One of
the problems in this solution is once the migrated workforce become old, they are again at the
upper end of the funnel requiring pension and other old age benefits for themselves. Another
question associated with this solution is that, will it be possible to arrange such a huge surplus of
population from rest of the world.
Increase in tax rates
Increase in income tax rates is one of the options available with the governments of developed
countries to fund the deficit in social security fund. The question is how much taxes can be
increased to put more pressures on the workforce. According to one study, the German pension
cost will reach to 28% of GDP in 2030. In France, the pension cost will be around 25% of GDP by
2030 as compared to 13% in 1990. Similarly, in Italy, the pension cost will be around 25% of GDP
by 2030. So increasing the tax rates is a harsh option, if the government prefers to implement.
However, after a certain period with proportionate decrease in workforce, it may not be feasible to
increase tax rate indefinitely.
3. India and European population comparison
This section compares the population position of four developed countries, namely, the Germany,
France, Italy and UK, between the time period 2004 and 2050. This section also compares the
population dynamics of India with four above-mentioned European countries. The objective of this
section is to find whether there will be any surplus population available in India between the time
periods 2004 to 2050 so that some of work may be diverted for the use as a workforce in these four
European countries workforce.
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The Graph-1 shows the progression of population of four European countries between the time
period 2004,2025 and 2050.
Graph-1
Population
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
Germany France Itlay UK
Country
Population
Year-2004
Year-2025
Year-2050
The Graph-3 shows the comparison between the population of India and four European countries.
This graph shows the size of total population of India as compared to four European countries. At a
face of it, this shows that India may have potential surplus population for the use of developed
countries as a workforce.
Graph-3
Population including India
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1600.00
G
erm
any
France
Itlay
U
K
India
Country
Population
Year-2004
Year-2025
Year-2050
The total population of four countries is 6% to 8% of population of India in 2004 and reduces to
4% to 5% population of India by 2050.
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Table-2
Total Population Workforce population (15-65)
Country Year-2004Year-2025Year-2050 Country Year-2004 Year-2025 Year-2050
Germany 82.53 82.11 74.64 Germany 55.54 51.32 42.17
France 59.90 64.39 65.70 France 38.99 39.21 37.45
Italy 57.88 57.75 52.71 Italy 38.55 36.32 44.15
UK 59.65 63.79 64.33 UK 37.58 40.19 37.76
Year-2001Year-2021Year-2051 Year-2001 Year-2021 Year-2051
India 1027 1287 1416 India 628 904 961
Population 65+ Dependency ratio as a percentage of workforce
Country Year-2004Year-2025Year-2050 Country Year-2004 Year-2025 Year-2050
Germany 14.86 20.20 23.59 Germany 27% 39% 56%
France 9.76 14.42 17.87 France 25% 37% 48%
Italy 11.11 14.44 29.13 Italy 29% 40% 66%
UK 9.54 13.33 17.11 UK 25% 33% 45%
Year-2001Year-2021Year-2051 Year-2001 Year-2021 Year-2051
India 46 86 238 India 7% 10% 25%
All figures in millions Workforce: 15-64 years
The German total population as well as workforce population decreases by around 10% and 24%
respectively between 2004 and 2050. There is an increase in the 65+ populations by around 59% in
the same period. Also the dependency ratio in Germany is up from 27% in 2004 to 56% in 2050.
This indicates the increasing quantum of population 65+ as against workforce.
The total French population increases by around 10% between 2004 and 2050, the workforce
decreases by around 4% in the same period. Between 2004 and 2050, French 65+ population
increases by around 83% and dependency ratio increases from 25% in 2004 to 48% in 2050. It can
be seen that dependency ratio is almost doubles in 45 years time.
In Italy, there is a decrease of total population by around 9% between 2004 and 2050 whereas
workforce population increases by around 14%. Also 65+ population increases by around 162%.
This leads to increase in dependency ratio from 29% in 2004 to 66% in 2050. The dependency ratio
get more than doubled in 45 years time, though there is an increase in total population in the same
period.
There is an increase of 8% of total population in UK between 2004 and 2050; workforce marginally
increases to 0.5% between 2004 and 2050. The population of 65+ increases by around 79% in the
same period. This leads to increase in dependency ratio to 45% in 2050 compared from 25% in
2004.
Now moving to Indian population dynamics, there is an increase of 38% of total population in the
period 2001 to 2051 more than sum of all four European countries. The workforce increases by
around 53% and 65+ populations increases by around 417%. The dependency ratio increases from
7% in 2001 to 25% in 2050.
It may be inferred that there will be a large surplus population available in India. Also currently
there is a not much social security benefits available to the 65+ populations compared to social
security benefits available in the developed countries. Even, the dependency ratio 43 years later is
same as current French or UK dependency ratio.
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From the above tables, there is a clear signs that there will be a lack of supply of workforce in the
developed countries as compared to India. Also dependency ratio in the developed countries will
touch around 50% as compared to around 25% in India.
In order to determine the surplus population in India by 2050, we must know the likely
unemployment rate would be prevailing in 2050. The current unemployment rate (2003) in India
was 9.1% of the workforce compared from 8.8% in 2002. For sake of simplicity, if we assume
current unemployment rate will be prevailing in 2050, then there will be 86 million workforces
unemployed in 2050. This figure is around equivalent to sum of total workforce of Germany and
Italy in 2050.
This section ends with a note that surplus population in India will be available in 2050 and can be
used as a workforce for developed countries.
4. Workforce supplementation in the developed countries from India
The question is can we make up the shortage of workforce supply in the developed countries from
India, which will have such a large surplus of workforce population (around 86 million) without
bothering any of the arguments given in section-2 of this paper.
The surplus Indian workforce can work from India for countries who will be experiencing the
shortage of workforce. This will not cause any of the problems discussed in the section-2 under the
heading of ‘Increase in migration rate’. So outsourcing of work may be considered as an option to
off set the problem of shortage of workforce.
Some of the countries are already outsourcing works to India to utilize the skilled manpower
available in India. This enables the job get done as a replacement of shortage of workforce in the
respective developed countries with low cost of production which in turn results in savings. Such
savings can be diverted to solve some of the social security problems. Some of the advantages of
outsourcing are:
1. Supplementation of shortage of workforce in the required country;
2. Saving in terms of lower cost of job done;
3. This process may boost global economy.
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256
A pictorial representation of the entire process as follows:
Chart-1
The chart-1 represents a scenario when the work is transferred to India and its chain reaction.
When the job by the required country is transferred to India, the job will be completed within the
time frame and the required country will not experience the shortage of workforce. This will enable
the required country to generate the money because if the job is not done, then they have to get it
done in their own country by paying extra money for extra time and if the job is done in India, the
difference in the cost of production will be the savings. It is also possible that the job may not be
Developed
countries
India: Available
skilled workforce
Fulfills
shortage of
workforce
Savings from low
cost of work done as
compared from
developed countries
Utilization of
workforce
leading to
Increase in
purchasing
power of
Indian
workforce
Boosting local
and global
economy
Creating
demands for
goods
Sale opportunity
by local and
developed
countries
8. 10th
Global Conference of Actuaries
done at all because there are not enough number of people to take up the jobs. So there will be a
value for every job available in future.
It has been reported in the press that the outsourcing country saves as much as 40% to 50% of
money had the work would have been completed in their country.
When there is a greater utilization of workforce in India, means that more people will be employed
or getting the higher salary. This will lead to increase in their purchasing power that will generate
demands for the goods. Once the demand is created, there will be a greater opportunity of more
sales. The opportunity of sales in the liberalized economic can be enchased either by local economy
or world economy. In directly this also provides and additional avenue for the developed countries
to increase their sale and ultimately boost the economy.
5. Determination of outsourced work
In the above sections, we have seen that in future there will a severe shortage of workforce in the
developed countries,. We have also seen that outsourcing by the developed countries is one of the
options available that can be exploited to solve social security problems. The question now need to
be answered that what should be the proportion of work they can outsource so that a balance may
be created between 65+ population and workforce.
In order to address this problem, it is important to realize that what should be the ideal proportion
of 65+ populations over the work force in any country so that the balance is comfortable. Because
once this proportion is determined, it will be easier to know that how much work need to be
transferred or what is the extra workforce requirement. This will help in moving towards the
direction of the solution where workforce will be feeding enough to the government through taxes
and savings to divert the social security funds for pensions and other old age benefits. The
determination of such proportion will vary from country to country.
Let us suppose that the ideal dependency ratio of 65+ populations over the workforce is R. The
ratio is defined as
R = (Number of person aged 65+)/ (Number of person in the age group 15-65)
= L65+ / L15-65
When the number of persons aged 65+ increases and workforce decreases (this is the problem in
question) then the new ratio R/
will be greater than the ideal ratio R. In order to bring the new ratio
R/
to the level of R, we need to increase the workforce in the denominator.
The new ratio is
R/
= L/
65+ / L/
15-65
L/
15-65 need to be increased to L//
15-65 in such a way that
R = L/
65+ / L//
15-65
This means that the extra workforce requirement will be
L//
15-65 - L/
15-65
Whenever, the ideal dependency ratio R moves to R/
, the extra workforce required to maintain the
balance between old age people and workforce will be L//
15-65 - L/
15-65.
Let us take the example of Germany. The ideal dependency ratio between 65+ populations and the
workforce should be when the population is in a stabilized state. The stabilized population state is
not known yet; therefore for sake of ease of calculation, let us suppose that the current
dependency ratio of 26.75% is an ideal ratio for Germany.
In 2050, the dependency ratio expected to be around 56%.
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In 2004 number of persons aged 15-65 years are around 65 millions, and number of persons aged
65+ are around 15 millions.
In 2050 number of persons aged 15-65 years expected to be around 42 millions, and number of
persons aged 65+ are around 24 millions.
To bring the ratio in 2050 to the current level of 26.75%, the total workforce required will be 90
million in 2050 as against would be available 42 million. So extra workforce required in the Germany
will be 90 million minus 42 million equal 48 million. Thus, if everything remains constant and
current ratio is an ideal dependency ratio, the Germany will require extra workforce of 48 million.
India has 86 million of surplus population in 2050 at a current level of unemployment rate.
If Germany has to maintain the demographic balance in 2050 same as 2004, then they will require
48 million extra workforces.
This section end with a note that if developed countries are to solve social security problem in
future, then it is important to define an ideal dependency ratio and then work towards finding the
extra workforce requirement to create population balance and social security problem.
6. Population scenario of ageing population, outsourcing and social security problem by
2050
A scenario of population dynamics of four countries in 2050 will look like as given in the table –4
below:
Table-4
Country
Workforce
Population in 2050
(million)
Dependency
ratio in 2004
Dependency
ratio in 2050
Total workforce
required to maintain
2004 DP ratio (million)
Extra
workforce
required
in 2050
Germany 42 27% 56% 90 48
France 37 25% 48% 72 35
Italy 44 29% 66% 100 56
UK 38 25% 45% 68 30
The above table suggests that the four countries will require 168 million extra people in the
workforce age group category in order to maintain the dependency ratio in 2050 same as the
dependency ratio of 2004. There is an assumption that four countries are running smoothly now
(2004), means the dependency ratio of 2004 as an ideal ratio. However, if the ideal ratio changes,
the requirement of extra workforce will also change in 2050. The above extra workforce
requirement is sensitive to ideal dependency ratio. Therefore, the lower bound of surplus population
requirement in 2050 will be zero if a government decides to define the ideal dependency ratio same
as in 2050, however, if the government decides to define the ideal dependency ratio as in 2004, the
upper bound of surplus workforce population requirement will be as calculated in the last column of
table-4
It may be noted that India has surplus population of 86 million in 2050 that do not cater the need
of all the above four countries. It can serve at most two countries.
There is a visible mismatch between demand and supply of the workforce in 2050. This may lead to
change in the economic situation as developed countries may be severely handicapped by the
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supply of labour force. One of the repercussions could be inflationary increase in the salary in a
country with surplus workforce population.
It is expected that in the next fifty years, developed countries will be outsourcing some of their
works to the low cost of production countries such as India and China because of shortage of
workforce in their countries.
7. Summary
The problem that is going to arise in future will be a very cracking problem of workforce shortage in
the developed countries. By 2050, the four major countries of Europe; Germany, France, Italy and
UK will require 168 million extra workforce whereas India can provide only 86 million of surplus
population. For the deficit of workforce, these countries have to look at the other low cost
production countries that also have surplus population such as China. There are other major
economies, such as USA, Canada, Australia and Japan may also be requiring surplus workforce to
supplement their shortage of workforce. This is a right time to address that from where such huge
workforce will come.
The time is right now to concentrate on mix of ways through which shortage of workforce in
developed countries can be solved. In future many jobs may move in the east direction from west
and outsourcing from the developed countries in India is going to stay for at least next half a
century. If this happens, the world economy will get a major boost, as there will be an eruption of
consumption of goods.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper is solely mine and not necessarily of my
employer.
8. Bibliography
1.Eurostat, news .
2. Jaiprakash, Indira, Ageing in India, World Health Organization, Geneva, 1999
3. LUC, Hai and Spivak, Grigory, Making sense of past, Staple Inn Actuarial Society, July 2005.
4..Population, Social trends 35; 2005 edition, Chapter 1
5.Ponnuswani, Hango, Situation of older persons in India.
6.Stein, Gabriel, and Mounting Debts: the coming European pension crisis published in POLTEIA,
Aourum for social and economic thinking in 1997.
7.Thorburn, Craig W, birth, Death, Passports and Pension, Institute of Actuaries in Australia,
October 1999
8.Willets, R.C., Gallop, A.P.,Leandro,P.A.,LU,J.L.C.,Macdonald,A.S.,Miller,K.A.,
Richards,S.J.,Robjons,N, Rayan,J.P. and Waters,H.R., Longevity in 21st
Century, British Actuarial
Journal, 2004, Volume,10, Part IV
9. Various websites for baby boom generations and Outsourcing.
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About the Author:
Sonjai Kumar
Sonjai has done PG diploma in Actuarial Management from City University, London and student
member of Institute of Actuaries of India. He is currently working in HSBC Life insurance JV with
Canara Bank and Oriental Bank of Commerce, as a Member of Life India Project. He has working
experience in Pricing of life insurance products for over five years. He is a regular contributor in
GCA.
Email: Sonjaikumar@hsbc.co.in