Probability theory in business managementMohit Rijal
1. Probability theory is relevant for business management and decision making under uncertainty. It allows managers to assess risks and make informed decisions.
2. Probability can be used to analyze scenarios, forecast sales, evaluate risks, conduct statistical analysis and research. For example, probability distributions help create scenario analyses considering best, worst and most likely outcomes.
3. Managers can use probability distributions and scenario analysis to inform product launches, investments, and strategic decisions by weighing factors like market demand, costs, and potential returns under different conditions. This helps select optimal courses of action.
Probability can be defined as the likelihood of an event occurring, and can be measured on a scale from impossible to certain. In mathematics and statistics, probability is defined as the ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes. Probability is used in business for decision making, risk evaluation, sales forecasting, and other applications. For example, the National Bank of Pakistan uses probability in risk advisory services and workshops on risk management.
Book Preview: The Timeless Essence of Financial ScienceRajesh Mudholkar
The document provides an introduction to a book about the timeless essence of financial science, acknowledging contributions from the author's professional and teaching experience as well as family. It dedicates the book to the author's late father for inspiring high aims and resilience, and thanks family and colleagues for their support and contributions to the work. The book examines theories, practices, and concepts in corporate finance from a professional viewpoint.
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are important risk management tools used by banks and insurance companies. VaR measures potential losses within a given probability level but fails to capture losses in the tail of a distribution. Stress testing assesses the impact of potential adverse scenarios by stressing key risk factors. It helps entities understand their risk profile and maintain adequate capital. Stress testing in the life insurance sector helps assess risks related to business planning, products, assets/liabilities, and capital. Both sensitivity testing (small changes to factors) and scenario testing (alternative future states) are used. The success of stress testing depends on using appropriate scenarios, management/board understanding of results, and realistic action plans. Regulators also require stress
Investment portfolio optimization with garch modelsEvans Tee
Since the introduction of the Markowitz mean-variance optimization model, several extensions have been made to improve optimality. This study examines the application of two models - the ARMA-GARCH model and the ARMA- DCC GARCH model - for the Mean-VaR optimization of funds managed by HFC Investment Limited. Weekly prices of the above mentioned funds from 2009 to 2012 were examined. The funds analyzed were the Equity Trust Fund, the Future Plan Fund and the Unit Trust Fund. The returns of the funds are modelled with the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) whiles volatility was modelled with the univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasti city (GARCH) as well as the multivariate Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC GARCH). This was based on the assumption of non-constant mean and volatility of fund returns. In this study the risk of a portfolio is measured using the value-at-risk. A single constrained Mean-VaR optimization problem was obtained based on the assumption that investors’ preference is solely based on risk and return. The optimization process was performed using the Lagrange Multiplier approach and the solution was obtained by the Kuhn-Tucker theorems. Conclusions which were drawn based on the results pointed to the fact that a more efficient portfolio is obtained when the value-at-risk (VaR) is modelled with a multivariate GARCH.
From cost center to strategic weapon a new perspective on logisticsARC Advisory Group
The document summarizes insights from a think tank session at a logistics conference attended by 350 senior executives. Key findings include: 1) Many companies still view logistics as a cost center rather than strategic; 2) There is poor collaboration between logistics and other functions like sales; and 3) Hiring and retaining talented people is critical for logistics success. Common challenges discussed were managing costs, standardizing processes after mergers, and changing perceptions of logistics within companies.
The document discusses supply chain process management (SCPM) solutions. It defines SCPM as real-time decision support software that provides extended supply chain visibility, alerts, workflow rules, and process control across business functions and partners. The key value propositions of SCPM include enabling faster, more responsive supply chains through automated alerts; improving order fulfillment metrics; and reducing costs through proactive event handling, fewer returns/substitutions, and automated processes. SCPM solutions provide visibility, alerts, and rules to help companies improve supply chain performance and reduce costs.
Probability theory in business managementMohit Rijal
1. Probability theory is relevant for business management and decision making under uncertainty. It allows managers to assess risks and make informed decisions.
2. Probability can be used to analyze scenarios, forecast sales, evaluate risks, conduct statistical analysis and research. For example, probability distributions help create scenario analyses considering best, worst and most likely outcomes.
3. Managers can use probability distributions and scenario analysis to inform product launches, investments, and strategic decisions by weighing factors like market demand, costs, and potential returns under different conditions. This helps select optimal courses of action.
Probability can be defined as the likelihood of an event occurring, and can be measured on a scale from impossible to certain. In mathematics and statistics, probability is defined as the ratio of favorable outcomes to total possible outcomes. Probability is used in business for decision making, risk evaluation, sales forecasting, and other applications. For example, the National Bank of Pakistan uses probability in risk advisory services and workshops on risk management.
Book Preview: The Timeless Essence of Financial ScienceRajesh Mudholkar
The document provides an introduction to a book about the timeless essence of financial science, acknowledging contributions from the author's professional and teaching experience as well as family. It dedicates the book to the author's late father for inspiring high aims and resilience, and thanks family and colleagues for their support and contributions to the work. The book examines theories, practices, and concepts in corporate finance from a professional viewpoint.
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are important risk management tools used by banks and insurance companies. VaR measures potential losses within a given probability level but fails to capture losses in the tail of a distribution. Stress testing assesses the impact of potential adverse scenarios by stressing key risk factors. It helps entities understand their risk profile and maintain adequate capital. Stress testing in the life insurance sector helps assess risks related to business planning, products, assets/liabilities, and capital. Both sensitivity testing (small changes to factors) and scenario testing (alternative future states) are used. The success of stress testing depends on using appropriate scenarios, management/board understanding of results, and realistic action plans. Regulators also require stress
Investment portfolio optimization with garch modelsEvans Tee
Since the introduction of the Markowitz mean-variance optimization model, several extensions have been made to improve optimality. This study examines the application of two models - the ARMA-GARCH model and the ARMA- DCC GARCH model - for the Mean-VaR optimization of funds managed by HFC Investment Limited. Weekly prices of the above mentioned funds from 2009 to 2012 were examined. The funds analyzed were the Equity Trust Fund, the Future Plan Fund and the Unit Trust Fund. The returns of the funds are modelled with the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) whiles volatility was modelled with the univariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasti city (GARCH) as well as the multivariate Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC GARCH). This was based on the assumption of non-constant mean and volatility of fund returns. In this study the risk of a portfolio is measured using the value-at-risk. A single constrained Mean-VaR optimization problem was obtained based on the assumption that investors’ preference is solely based on risk and return. The optimization process was performed using the Lagrange Multiplier approach and the solution was obtained by the Kuhn-Tucker theorems. Conclusions which were drawn based on the results pointed to the fact that a more efficient portfolio is obtained when the value-at-risk (VaR) is modelled with a multivariate GARCH.
From cost center to strategic weapon a new perspective on logisticsARC Advisory Group
The document summarizes insights from a think tank session at a logistics conference attended by 350 senior executives. Key findings include: 1) Many companies still view logistics as a cost center rather than strategic; 2) There is poor collaboration between logistics and other functions like sales; and 3) Hiring and retaining talented people is critical for logistics success. Common challenges discussed were managing costs, standardizing processes after mergers, and changing perceptions of logistics within companies.
The document discusses supply chain process management (SCPM) solutions. It defines SCPM as real-time decision support software that provides extended supply chain visibility, alerts, workflow rules, and process control across business functions and partners. The key value propositions of SCPM include enabling faster, more responsive supply chains through automated alerts; improving order fulfillment metrics; and reducing costs through proactive event handling, fewer returns/substitutions, and automated processes. SCPM solutions provide visibility, alerts, and rules to help companies improve supply chain performance and reduce costs.
The document summarizes a study by Deloitte Consulting and Deloitte & Touche on managing amid uncertainty. It outlines the futility of economic forecasting given unpredictable recessions and recoveries. It then introduces the concept of strategic flexibility, a four-phase approach to strategic planning that abandons predictions in favor of developing scenarios of possible futures and optimal strategies for each scenario. The four phases are: 1) anticipating key drivers of change and defining possible scenarios, 2) formulating optimal strategies for each scenario, 3) accumulating resources needed for core strategies and options for contingent strategies, 4) operating by executing core strategies and adapting options as the environment changes.
Securities Lending Times Article 2012.05.15 (Th)thalikias
Thomas Halikias of Saratoga Capital looks at single stock futures and their usage in securities financing. Single stock futures can be used to finance long equity positions or lend underlying stocks, and offer benefits over traditional OTC products like improved capital requirements and price transparency. While initially seen as speculative, single stock futures are actually sophisticated financing instruments that provide benefits to international holders of US equities by reducing dividend withholding tax exposure.
- Single stock futures can be used for financing long equity positions or lending stocks, providing an alternative to traditional over-the-counter markets. They offer benefits like reduced counterparty risk due to clearing by the AAA-rated OCC and a diverse group of market participants.
- Using single stock futures can significantly reduce firms' US dividend withholding tax exposure by financing high-yielding US equities. It also aligns with the intent of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.
- While initially met with skepticism, clients understand the benefits of single stock futures for trading, risk management, and capital requirements once misconceptions are clarified.
Value-at-Risk (VaR) has been adopted as the cornerstone and commonlanguage of risk management by virtually all major financial institutions and regulators. However, this risk measure has failed to warn the market participants during the financial crisis. In this paper, we show this failure may come from the methodology that we use to calculate VaR and not necessarily for VaR measure itself. we compare two different methods for VaR calculation, 1)by assuming the normal distribution of portfolio return, 2)
by using a bootstrap method in a nonparametric framework. The Empirical exercise is implemented on CAC 40 index, and the results show us that the first method will underestimate the market risk - the failure of VaR measure occurs. Yet, the second method overcomes the shortcomings of the first method and provides results that pass the tests of VaR evaluation.
Understanding greek government bond spreadsIlias Lekkos
The aim of our research is to enhance our understanding on the fundamental behavior of the Greek Government Bond Spreads both before and after the Greek economic crisis. We do that by trying to address the following issues:
Which are the fundamental drivers of GGB spreads?
Is this set of driving factors constant or it varies relative to the situation in the Greek bond market and the size of the spreads?
Even for factors that are significant across the spreads distribution do they maintain a constant influence (constant betas) on the spreads or this varies as well?
Are Greek Government Bonds fairly valued given the levels of their fundamentals?
Are the risks around their fair value always symmetric or can we identify periods of positive (i.e. increased probability for narrower spreads) and negative (i.e. increased probability for wider spreads) risks?
Can we use the enhanced flexibility of the model for risk management purposes? That is, can we produce more accurate Value-at-Risk analysis for GGB spreads?
Finally, can we employ our model to explore the behavior of GGB spreads under various macroeconomic scenarios?
Fund managers and selectors discuss their views on multi-asset funds. They note the challenges of maintaining diversification and limiting downside risk in the current environment of increased volatility and correlation between asset classes. Selectors favor managers with experience in different market conditions who can manage liquidity risks and changing monetary policies. They have selected several top performing multi-asset funds that have balanced risk and returns over the past years.
1. The document analyzes whether systematic rules-based strategies based on traditional and alternative risk factors can successfully replicate the performance of various hedge fund strategies.
2. Regression analysis shows the factors explain a substantial portion of hedge fund returns, though the explanatory power is higher in-sample than out-of-sample. More dynamic strategies are harder to replicate than directional ones.
3. Out-of-sample, a rolling-window approach to estimating time-varying factor exposures works as well or better than a Kalman filter model for most strategies. Replication quality varies by strategy, with more directional strategies like short selling replicating better than dynamic ones.
CHW Vol 15 Isu 7 July Quarterly EHP Funds v1J Scott Miller
This document provides a summary of topics covered in the July 2015 issue of a quarterly review publication on hedge funds and alternative investing. It discusses an AIMA Canada seminar series to help new hedge fund managers, performance numbers for the recent quarter, and an article on using a trend-based approach to manage risk. The article describes how following a simple strategy of holding stocks only when they are above their 10-month moving average achieved equity-like returns with lower drawdowns and volatility than a buy-and-hold approach. It also introduces the author's own "EHP Fear Index" for determining their funds' risk levels.
In this paper we propose a new risk management framework that can evaluate the cost-risk tradeoff of alternative risk management strategies. Although there is ample theoretical support for risk management as an activity, common risk management approaches suffer serious problems:
Minimize Risk: Completely eliminating risk is expensive and impractical
Efficient Frontier: Can eliminate many poor risk management strategies but rarely gives a definitive optimal
strategy
Sharpe Ratio: Provides a cost-risk trade-off but the price of one unit of risk is arbitrary
Based on a recent empirical study, we propose a new cost-risk measure which directly values the impact of earnings per share and cash flow per share volatility.
This new approach will enable corporate CFOs and treasurers to make more robust risk management decisions and, critically, better defend those decisions internally and to the broader market.
Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth in Nigeria “Endogenous Growth Approach”iosrjce
The paper adopts a simple endogenous growth model to evaluate the short and long-run impact of
Gross Fixed capital formation, human capital formation, savings and population growth rate on economic
growth in Nigeria. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model indicates no short and long-run impact of these
variables on economic growth. Also using Pesaran Bound Test and Wald Coefficient Diagnostic Test, we found
no long-run impact of Gross Fixed capital formation, human capital formation, national saving, and population
growth rate on growth. Beside, the error term (et) is rightly signed but not significant and the speed of
adjustment towards equilibrium is very poor at 23.99percent. it is very clear that none of the independent
variables contributed greatly to the variations in the economic growth rate in both short-run and long run
because the impulse they emitted for the both periods fluctuated all through the periods under review with small
percentage impacts. For example the gross fixed capital formation produced 6.12 percent positive shocks for
the ten periods and -4.38 percent negative shocks on economic growth, while human capital formation produced
more negative shocks (-12.48)percent than positive (6.51) for the ten periods. Like-wise national savings and
population- emitted more negative impulse (-6.55, -7.72) than positive (5.89, 6.52) on growth respectively .we
recommend that government should provide an enabling environment that will encourage both domestic and
foreign investment and in addition human capital development through education and in-job training should be
encouraged
This document discusses differences between risk management in corporations versus financial institutions. While financial institutions led the development of modern risk management practices, their risks focus on financial and market risks and are not directly transferable to corporations. Corporations face a wider variety of risks related to their operations. The nature of risks in corporations requires customized risk management practices rather than directly applying financial institution frameworks. Overall, corporations can benefit from certain financial institution practices but need to adapt them to their own business contexts and risk environments.
This document analyzes fiscal sustainability in developing Asia by examining key fiscal indicators over time and across subregions, estimating fiscal policy response functions, analyzing fiscal stimulus scenarios, and discussing medium-term fiscal policy frameworks. The results indicate developing Asia's public finances are generally in good shape due to responsible fiscal behavior. However, failure to withdraw fiscal stimulus in a timely manner could jeopardize sustainability, highlighting the need for strong medium-term fiscal policy frameworks.
This paper proposes a three-pronged approach to incorporate market liquidity risk into a market risk framework. Level 1 addresses normal conditions by calculating both 1-day and 10-day VaR, with limits set against 1-day VaR and triggers against 10-day VaR. Level 2 involves liquidity stress testing through percentage haircuts applied to valuations based on historical data. Level 3 assesses exogenous liquidity risk through periodic analysis of the portfolio to determine liquidity reserves. The methodology aims to consider both normal and stressed scenarios while being practical and widely accepted by regulators.
This document provides feedback on COSO's Enterprise Risk Management exposure draft from members of the Institute of Risk Management's Special Interest Group in Enterprise Risk Management for Banking and Financial Services.
The feedback addresses three key areas: 1) general comments welcoming the comprehensive nature of the draft but recommending more detail on some topics like risk aggregation, 2) conceptual discussions seeking clarification on uncertainty, likelihood, and key risk indicators, and 3) inclusion of "The New Global Conduct Risk Paradigm" which presents an interpretation of how to effectively implement enterprise risk management to include conduct risk. The feedback aims to strengthen the exposure draft's guidance on integrating risk management.
VOLATILITY FORECASTING - A PERFORMANCE MEASURE OF GARCH TECHNIQUES WITH DIFFE...ijscmcj
Volatility Forecasting is an interesting challenging topic in current financial instruments as it is directly associated with profits. There are many risks and rewards directly associated with volatility. Hence forecasting volatility becomes most dispensable topic in finance. The GARCH distributions play an important role in the risk measurement and option pricing. The min motive of this paper is to measure the performance of GARCH techniques for forecasting volatility by using different distribution model. We have used 9 variations in distribution models that are used to forecast the volatility of a stock entity. The different GARCH distribution models observed in this paper are Std, Norm, SNorm, GED, SSTD, SGED, NIG, GHYP and JSU. Volatility is forecasted for 10 days in advance and values are compared with the actual values to find out the best distribution model for volatility forecast. From the results obtain it has been observed that GARCH with GED distribution models has outperformed all models.
The International Journal of Soft Computing, Mathematics and Control (IJSCMC) is a Quarterly peer-reviewed and refereed open access journal that publishes articles which contribute new results in all areas of Soft Computing, Pure, Applied and Numerical Mathematics and Control. The focus of this new journal is on all theoretical and numerical methods on soft computing, mathematics and control theory with applications in science and industry. The goal of this journal is to bring together researchers and practitioners from academia and industry to focus on latest topics of soft computing, pure, applied and numerical mathematics and control engineering, and establishing new collaborations in these areas.
Authors are solicited to contribute to this journal by submitting articles that illustrate new algorithms, theorems, modeling results, research results, projects, surveying works and industrial experiences that describe significant advances in Soft Computing, Mathematics and Control Engineering
VOLATILITY FORECASTING - A PERFORMANCE MEASURE OF GARCH TECHNIQUES WITH DIFFE...ijscmcj
Volatility Forecasting is an interesting challenging topic in current financial instruments as it is directly
associated with profits. There are many risks and rewards directly associated with volatility. Hence
forecasting volatility becomes most dispensable topic in finance. The GARCH distributions play an important
role in the risk measurement and option pricing. The min motive of this paper is to measure the performance
of GARCH techniques for forecasting volatility by using different distribution model. We have used 9
variations in distribution models that are used to forecast the volatility of a stock entity. The different GARCH
distribution models observed in this paper are Std, Norm, SNorm, GED, SSTD, SGED, NIG, GHYP and JSU.
Volatility is forecasted for 10 days in advance and values are compared with the actual values to find out the
best distribution model for volatility forecast. From the results obtain it has been observed that GARCH with
GED distribution models has outperformed all models.
Volatility Forecasting - A Performance Measure of Garch Techniques With Diffe...ijscmcj
Volatility Forecasting is an interesting challengingtopicin current financial instruments as it is directly associated with profits. There are many risks and rewards directly associated with volatility. Hence forecasting volatility becomes most dispensable topic in finance. The GARCH distributionsplay an import ant role in the risk measurement a nd option pricing. T heminmotiveof this paper is tomeasure the performance of GARCH techniques for forecasting volatility by using different distribution model. We have used 9 variations in distribution models that are used to forecast t he volatility of a stock entity. Thedifferent GARCH
distribution models observed in this paper are Std, Norm, SNorm,GED, SSTD, SGED, NIG, GHYP and JSU.Volatility is forecasted for 10 days in dvance andvalues are compared with the actual values to find out the best distribution model for volatility forecast. From the results obtain it has been observed that GARCH withGED distribution models has outperformed all models
The document discusses how corporate hedgers can use cash flow at risk (CFaR) reports to make informed hedging decisions. It provides an example of an airline hedging its jet fuel costs for the next quarter. The CFaR report shows that with 95% certainty, jet fuel prices will not exceed $1.635 per gallon. Given this, hedging 80-90% of fuel purchases would keep fuel costs between 18.5-19% of revenue, meeting the airline's objectives. The airline hedged 85% of its fuel at $1.28 per gallon. Actual fuel prices showed the hedge was successful in keeping fuel costs at 18.34% of revenue.
1. Risk monitoring plays a pivotal role in the risk management process by assessing if previous risk management actions reduced residual risks or if changes require revised actions.
2. It provides early warning signals of risks changing or emerging risks by monitoring key risk indicators and outcomes.
3. Emerging risks identified through monitoring may impact strategies, so monitoring helps re-align strategies to changing internal and external environments over the long-term.
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The document summarizes a study by Deloitte Consulting and Deloitte & Touche on managing amid uncertainty. It outlines the futility of economic forecasting given unpredictable recessions and recoveries. It then introduces the concept of strategic flexibility, a four-phase approach to strategic planning that abandons predictions in favor of developing scenarios of possible futures and optimal strategies for each scenario. The four phases are: 1) anticipating key drivers of change and defining possible scenarios, 2) formulating optimal strategies for each scenario, 3) accumulating resources needed for core strategies and options for contingent strategies, 4) operating by executing core strategies and adapting options as the environment changes.
Securities Lending Times Article 2012.05.15 (Th)thalikias
Thomas Halikias of Saratoga Capital looks at single stock futures and their usage in securities financing. Single stock futures can be used to finance long equity positions or lend underlying stocks, and offer benefits over traditional OTC products like improved capital requirements and price transparency. While initially seen as speculative, single stock futures are actually sophisticated financing instruments that provide benefits to international holders of US equities by reducing dividend withholding tax exposure.
- Single stock futures can be used for financing long equity positions or lending stocks, providing an alternative to traditional over-the-counter markets. They offer benefits like reduced counterparty risk due to clearing by the AAA-rated OCC and a diverse group of market participants.
- Using single stock futures can significantly reduce firms' US dividend withholding tax exposure by financing high-yielding US equities. It also aligns with the intent of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.
- While initially met with skepticism, clients understand the benefits of single stock futures for trading, risk management, and capital requirements once misconceptions are clarified.
Value-at-Risk (VaR) has been adopted as the cornerstone and commonlanguage of risk management by virtually all major financial institutions and regulators. However, this risk measure has failed to warn the market participants during the financial crisis. In this paper, we show this failure may come from the methodology that we use to calculate VaR and not necessarily for VaR measure itself. we compare two different methods for VaR calculation, 1)by assuming the normal distribution of portfolio return, 2)
by using a bootstrap method in a nonparametric framework. The Empirical exercise is implemented on CAC 40 index, and the results show us that the first method will underestimate the market risk - the failure of VaR measure occurs. Yet, the second method overcomes the shortcomings of the first method and provides results that pass the tests of VaR evaluation.
Understanding greek government bond spreadsIlias Lekkos
The aim of our research is to enhance our understanding on the fundamental behavior of the Greek Government Bond Spreads both before and after the Greek economic crisis. We do that by trying to address the following issues:
Which are the fundamental drivers of GGB spreads?
Is this set of driving factors constant or it varies relative to the situation in the Greek bond market and the size of the spreads?
Even for factors that are significant across the spreads distribution do they maintain a constant influence (constant betas) on the spreads or this varies as well?
Are Greek Government Bonds fairly valued given the levels of their fundamentals?
Are the risks around their fair value always symmetric or can we identify periods of positive (i.e. increased probability for narrower spreads) and negative (i.e. increased probability for wider spreads) risks?
Can we use the enhanced flexibility of the model for risk management purposes? That is, can we produce more accurate Value-at-Risk analysis for GGB spreads?
Finally, can we employ our model to explore the behavior of GGB spreads under various macroeconomic scenarios?
Fund managers and selectors discuss their views on multi-asset funds. They note the challenges of maintaining diversification and limiting downside risk in the current environment of increased volatility and correlation between asset classes. Selectors favor managers with experience in different market conditions who can manage liquidity risks and changing monetary policies. They have selected several top performing multi-asset funds that have balanced risk and returns over the past years.
1. The document analyzes whether systematic rules-based strategies based on traditional and alternative risk factors can successfully replicate the performance of various hedge fund strategies.
2. Regression analysis shows the factors explain a substantial portion of hedge fund returns, though the explanatory power is higher in-sample than out-of-sample. More dynamic strategies are harder to replicate than directional ones.
3. Out-of-sample, a rolling-window approach to estimating time-varying factor exposures works as well or better than a Kalman filter model for most strategies. Replication quality varies by strategy, with more directional strategies like short selling replicating better than dynamic ones.
CHW Vol 15 Isu 7 July Quarterly EHP Funds v1J Scott Miller
This document provides a summary of topics covered in the July 2015 issue of a quarterly review publication on hedge funds and alternative investing. It discusses an AIMA Canada seminar series to help new hedge fund managers, performance numbers for the recent quarter, and an article on using a trend-based approach to manage risk. The article describes how following a simple strategy of holding stocks only when they are above their 10-month moving average achieved equity-like returns with lower drawdowns and volatility than a buy-and-hold approach. It also introduces the author's own "EHP Fear Index" for determining their funds' risk levels.
In this paper we propose a new risk management framework that can evaluate the cost-risk tradeoff of alternative risk management strategies. Although there is ample theoretical support for risk management as an activity, common risk management approaches suffer serious problems:
Minimize Risk: Completely eliminating risk is expensive and impractical
Efficient Frontier: Can eliminate many poor risk management strategies but rarely gives a definitive optimal
strategy
Sharpe Ratio: Provides a cost-risk trade-off but the price of one unit of risk is arbitrary
Based on a recent empirical study, we propose a new cost-risk measure which directly values the impact of earnings per share and cash flow per share volatility.
This new approach will enable corporate CFOs and treasurers to make more robust risk management decisions and, critically, better defend those decisions internally and to the broader market.
Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth in Nigeria “Endogenous Growth Approach”iosrjce
The paper adopts a simple endogenous growth model to evaluate the short and long-run impact of
Gross Fixed capital formation, human capital formation, savings and population growth rate on economic
growth in Nigeria. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag model indicates no short and long-run impact of these
variables on economic growth. Also using Pesaran Bound Test and Wald Coefficient Diagnostic Test, we found
no long-run impact of Gross Fixed capital formation, human capital formation, national saving, and population
growth rate on growth. Beside, the error term (et) is rightly signed but not significant and the speed of
adjustment towards equilibrium is very poor at 23.99percent. it is very clear that none of the independent
variables contributed greatly to the variations in the economic growth rate in both short-run and long run
because the impulse they emitted for the both periods fluctuated all through the periods under review with small
percentage impacts. For example the gross fixed capital formation produced 6.12 percent positive shocks for
the ten periods and -4.38 percent negative shocks on economic growth, while human capital formation produced
more negative shocks (-12.48)percent than positive (6.51) for the ten periods. Like-wise national savings and
population- emitted more negative impulse (-6.55, -7.72) than positive (5.89, 6.52) on growth respectively .we
recommend that government should provide an enabling environment that will encourage both domestic and
foreign investment and in addition human capital development through education and in-job training should be
encouraged
This document discusses differences between risk management in corporations versus financial institutions. While financial institutions led the development of modern risk management practices, their risks focus on financial and market risks and are not directly transferable to corporations. Corporations face a wider variety of risks related to their operations. The nature of risks in corporations requires customized risk management practices rather than directly applying financial institution frameworks. Overall, corporations can benefit from certain financial institution practices but need to adapt them to their own business contexts and risk environments.
This document analyzes fiscal sustainability in developing Asia by examining key fiscal indicators over time and across subregions, estimating fiscal policy response functions, analyzing fiscal stimulus scenarios, and discussing medium-term fiscal policy frameworks. The results indicate developing Asia's public finances are generally in good shape due to responsible fiscal behavior. However, failure to withdraw fiscal stimulus in a timely manner could jeopardize sustainability, highlighting the need for strong medium-term fiscal policy frameworks.
This paper proposes a three-pronged approach to incorporate market liquidity risk into a market risk framework. Level 1 addresses normal conditions by calculating both 1-day and 10-day VaR, with limits set against 1-day VaR and triggers against 10-day VaR. Level 2 involves liquidity stress testing through percentage haircuts applied to valuations based on historical data. Level 3 assesses exogenous liquidity risk through periodic analysis of the portfolio to determine liquidity reserves. The methodology aims to consider both normal and stressed scenarios while being practical and widely accepted by regulators.
This document provides feedback on COSO's Enterprise Risk Management exposure draft from members of the Institute of Risk Management's Special Interest Group in Enterprise Risk Management for Banking and Financial Services.
The feedback addresses three key areas: 1) general comments welcoming the comprehensive nature of the draft but recommending more detail on some topics like risk aggregation, 2) conceptual discussions seeking clarification on uncertainty, likelihood, and key risk indicators, and 3) inclusion of "The New Global Conduct Risk Paradigm" which presents an interpretation of how to effectively implement enterprise risk management to include conduct risk. The feedback aims to strengthen the exposure draft's guidance on integrating risk management.
VOLATILITY FORECASTING - A PERFORMANCE MEASURE OF GARCH TECHNIQUES WITH DIFFE...ijscmcj
Volatility Forecasting is an interesting challenging topic in current financial instruments as it is directly associated with profits. There are many risks and rewards directly associated with volatility. Hence forecasting volatility becomes most dispensable topic in finance. The GARCH distributions play an important role in the risk measurement and option pricing. The min motive of this paper is to measure the performance of GARCH techniques for forecasting volatility by using different distribution model. We have used 9 variations in distribution models that are used to forecast the volatility of a stock entity. The different GARCH distribution models observed in this paper are Std, Norm, SNorm, GED, SSTD, SGED, NIG, GHYP and JSU. Volatility is forecasted for 10 days in advance and values are compared with the actual values to find out the best distribution model for volatility forecast. From the results obtain it has been observed that GARCH with GED distribution models has outperformed all models.
The International Journal of Soft Computing, Mathematics and Control (IJSCMC) is a Quarterly peer-reviewed and refereed open access journal that publishes articles which contribute new results in all areas of Soft Computing, Pure, Applied and Numerical Mathematics and Control. The focus of this new journal is on all theoretical and numerical methods on soft computing, mathematics and control theory with applications in science and industry. The goal of this journal is to bring together researchers and practitioners from academia and industry to focus on latest topics of soft computing, pure, applied and numerical mathematics and control engineering, and establishing new collaborations in these areas.
Authors are solicited to contribute to this journal by submitting articles that illustrate new algorithms, theorems, modeling results, research results, projects, surveying works and industrial experiences that describe significant advances in Soft Computing, Mathematics and Control Engineering
VOLATILITY FORECASTING - A PERFORMANCE MEASURE OF GARCH TECHNIQUES WITH DIFFE...ijscmcj
Volatility Forecasting is an interesting challenging topic in current financial instruments as it is directly
associated with profits. There are many risks and rewards directly associated with volatility. Hence
forecasting volatility becomes most dispensable topic in finance. The GARCH distributions play an important
role in the risk measurement and option pricing. The min motive of this paper is to measure the performance
of GARCH techniques for forecasting volatility by using different distribution model. We have used 9
variations in distribution models that are used to forecast the volatility of a stock entity. The different GARCH
distribution models observed in this paper are Std, Norm, SNorm, GED, SSTD, SGED, NIG, GHYP and JSU.
Volatility is forecasted for 10 days in advance and values are compared with the actual values to find out the
best distribution model for volatility forecast. From the results obtain it has been observed that GARCH with
GED distribution models has outperformed all models.
Volatility Forecasting - A Performance Measure of Garch Techniques With Diffe...ijscmcj
Volatility Forecasting is an interesting challengingtopicin current financial instruments as it is directly associated with profits. There are many risks and rewards directly associated with volatility. Hence forecasting volatility becomes most dispensable topic in finance. The GARCH distributionsplay an import ant role in the risk measurement a nd option pricing. T heminmotiveof this paper is tomeasure the performance of GARCH techniques for forecasting volatility by using different distribution model. We have used 9 variations in distribution models that are used to forecast t he volatility of a stock entity. Thedifferent GARCH
distribution models observed in this paper are Std, Norm, SNorm,GED, SSTD, SGED, NIG, GHYP and JSU.Volatility is forecasted for 10 days in dvance andvalues are compared with the actual values to find out the best distribution model for volatility forecast. From the results obtain it has been observed that GARCH withGED distribution models has outperformed all models
The document discusses how corporate hedgers can use cash flow at risk (CFaR) reports to make informed hedging decisions. It provides an example of an airline hedging its jet fuel costs for the next quarter. The CFaR report shows that with 95% certainty, jet fuel prices will not exceed $1.635 per gallon. Given this, hedging 80-90% of fuel purchases would keep fuel costs between 18.5-19% of revenue, meeting the airline's objectives. The airline hedged 85% of its fuel at $1.28 per gallon. Actual fuel prices showed the hedge was successful in keeping fuel costs at 18.34% of revenue.
Similar to Importance of Enterprise Risk Management in Life Insurance Sector (20)
1. Risk monitoring plays a pivotal role in the risk management process by assessing if previous risk management actions reduced residual risks or if changes require revised actions.
2. It provides early warning signals of risks changing or emerging risks by monitoring key risk indicators and outcomes.
3. Emerging risks identified through monitoring may impact strategies, so monitoring helps re-align strategies to changing internal and external environments over the long-term.
This presentation was given in International Management Institute (IMI), New Delhi on 19th May 2017. This was given to the One year Executive management students.
3rd Asia Conference on risk based capital (Manila 29 30 March-17)Sonjai Kumar, SIRM
This presentation was given at the 3rd Asia Conference in Risk Based Capital on 29th and 30th March 2017 in Manila. This presentation was in the context of Philipinnes moving to the second phase of RBC. The Conference organized by Asia Insurance Review
Moving towards RBC- in the context of Indian Insurance MarketSonjai Kumar, SIRM
The regulator in India is moving towards adopting a risk-based capital framework, though it has not been implemented yet. Currently, capital requirements are based on a solvency I approach and do not directly account for risk. However, the regulator has taken several steps in recent years similar to risk-based systems by requiring greater financial disclosures, stress testing, and governance guidelines. A committee recommended adopting a "twin peaks" model, where current solvency norms would work alongside new risk-based capital requirements, as India prepares to fully transition to a risk-based capital framework.
Role of Enterprise Risk Management in Risk Based CapitalSonjai Kumar, SIRM
This presentation is given in the First South Asian Actuarial Conference held in Colombo on 12th and 13th July 2017.
The presentation is on how does risk management can help in optimizing the capital requirement in the life insurance industry
This document summarizes the key topics presented at the National Conference on Finance and Economics 2016 in Lucknow, India. The conference aimed to promote research at the intersection of economics and finance and bring together researchers, practitioners and policymakers. The presentation discusses the relationship between the economy and insurance sector, how macroeconomic factors impact insurance businesses, and the potential effects of global risks like geopolitical, environmental and economic risks on the Indian economy and insurance industry. It provides an overview of historical insurance and economic trends in India.
The document discusses the influence of the insurance sector on the Indian economy and vice versa. It notes that the life insurance market in India is expected to grow significantly over the next 10 years. While insurance penetration and density have increased, they remain lower than other developed countries, indicating significant potential for future growth. The relationship between economic factors like GDP growth, disposable income, and the insurance sector is explored. Challenges and opportunities for future growth of the insurance sector in India are also highlighted.
This document discusses risk management in the life insurance industry. It provides an overview of enterprise risk management (ERM), how risk management has evolved globally and in India, and the future of risk management. Key points include:
- ERM takes a holistic approach to risk management across the entire company rather than operating in silos. It helps optimize business performance through risk-based decision making.
- Globally, risk management is increasingly important with the adoption of solvency regulations like Solvency II in Europe and risk-based capital standards. India currently follows a formula-based Solvency I approach but is showing increased interest in risk management.
- The future of risk management in India involves greater
Treasury Risk Management_Summit_Sonjai Kumar_ALM Life Ins_v2Sonjai Kumar, SIRM
Assets and liability management (ALM) is necessary for life insurance companies to manage financial risks and ensure financial health. ALM involves matching the term, nature, and currency of assets to the liabilities to manage risks like interest rate risk. In India, most products transitioned from unit-linked to traditional products with maturity guarantees after 2010, increasing ALM risk. Simple ALM measures include duration matching, cash flow matching, and strategic asset allocation within regulatory limits and risk appetite. An example shows potential losses from reinvesting at lower future interest rates.
1) The global financial crisis highlighted failures in risk management and corporate governance at many major financial institutions. Risk management departments lacked prestige compared to trading operations and did not enforce prudent risk practices.
2) Boards of directors did not adequately oversee risk and failed to establish qualified risk management committees. Many directors lacked banking experience.
3) High-risk activities and compensation were not properly aligned with long-term company interests. Bonuses encouraged excessive short-term risk-taking.
4) Risk managers lacked understanding of complex products and risks. Early warnings of liquidity issues were ignored without implementing contingency plans. Over-reliance on credit ratings also contributed to problems.
The Eighth Global Conference of Actuaries was held in Mumbai, India and organized by the Actuarial Society of India. Over two days, the conference covered topics in life, health, general and non-life insurance. It featured keynote addresses, panel discussions, and presentations on issues facing the actuarial profession such as asset-liability management, investment guarantees, and the emerging market for outsourcing actuarial services to India. The conference highlighted the growth of the actuarial profession in India since the liberalization of the insurance industry and the energy of students pursuing new opportunities in the field.
This document summarizes a paper that analyzes critical illness rates in India for cardiovascular diseases, strokes, and cancer. Some key findings include:
1. Coronary heart disease is more prevalent in India than cancer, unlike in the UK where cancer is more common. Heart disease rates in India are expected to increase significantly in the coming decades.
2. Both males and females in India have higher rates of coronary heart disease compared to counterparts in the UK, especially at younger ages.
3. Stroke rates are much lower in India compared to the UK.
4. Cancer rates in India are higher for both males and females up to age 60, after which UK rates become higher.
5.
This document summarizes a paper on motor premium rating in India. It discusses the current tariff regime for motor insurance that is leading to losses for many companies. With the likely deregulation of motor insurance tariffs, companies will need to use actuarial fundamentals to scientifically price policies. It emphasizes the importance of collecting comprehensive driver, vehicle, and policy data to analyze risk groups and determine appropriate premiums. The document provides an overview of how to calculate an adequate overall premium and determine differential ratings based on risk factors.
This document discusses the socio-economic challenges facing developed countries as the baby boom generation retires between 2007-2011. This will shrink the workforce and increase the proportion of older people requiring pensions and healthcare. Outsourcing work to India is proposed as a solution to supplement the shrinking workforce in countries like Germany, France, Italy and the UK. India has a large and growing workforce that could help address labor shortages in Europe through remote work outsourcing without increasing migration pressures. The document analyzes population trends and projections in European and Indian populations to 2050 to argue that India will have a large surplus workforce available to support developed country needs.
How Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank’s Co-Branded RuPay Credit Card Cater...beulahfernandes8
The eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, a strategic collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank, represents a significant advancement in India's digital financial landscape. Spearheaded by Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp, the card leverages deep customer insights to offer tailored features such as no joining fees, movie ticket offers, and rewards on UPI transactions. IndusInd Bank's solid banking infrastructure and digital integration expertise ensure seamless service delivery in today's fast-paced digital economy. With a focus on meeting the growing demand for digital financial services, the card aims to cater to tech-savvy consumers and differentiate itself through unique features and superior customer service, ultimately poised to make a substantial impact in India's digital financial services space.
Confirmation of Payee (CoP) is a vital security measure adopted by financial institutions and payment service providers. Its core purpose is to confirm that the recipient’s name matches the information provided by the sender during a banking transaction, ensuring that funds are transferred to the correct payment account.
Confirmation of Payee was built to tackle the increasing numbers of APP Fraud and in the landscape of UK banking, the spectre of APP fraud looms large. In 2022, over £1.2 billion was stolen by fraudsters through authorised and unauthorised fraud, equivalent to more than £2,300 every minute. This statistic emphasises the urgent need for robust security measures like CoP. While over £1.2 billion was stolen through fraud in 2022, there was an eight per cent reduction compared to 2021 which highlights the positive outcomes obtained from the implementation of Confirmation of Payee. The number of fraud cases across the UK also decreased by four per cent to nearly three million cases during the same period; latest statistics from UK Finance.
In essence, Confirmation of Payee plays a pivotal role in digital banking, guaranteeing the flawless execution of banking transactions. It stands as a guardian against fraud and misallocation, demonstrating the commitment of financial institutions to safeguard their clients’ assets. The next time you engage in a banking transaction, remember the invaluable role of CoP in ensuring the security of your financial interests.
For more details, you can visit https://technoxander.com.
Explore the world of investments with an in-depth comparison of the stock market and real estate. Understand their fundamentals, risks, returns, and diversification strategies to make informed financial decisions that align with your goals.
Madhya Pradesh, the "Heart of India," boasts a rich tapestry of culture and heritage, from ancient dynasties to modern developments. Explore its land records, historical landmarks, and vibrant traditions. From agricultural expanses to urban growth, Madhya Pradesh offers a unique blend of the ancient and modern.
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
Learn in-depth about Dogecoin's trajectory and stay informed with 36crypto's essential and up-to-date information about the crypto space.
Our presentation delves into Dogecoin's potential future, exploring whether it's destined to skyrocket to the moon or face a downward spiral. In addition, it highlights invaluable insights. Don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your crypto understanding!
https://36crypto.com/the-future-of-dogecoin-how-high-can-this-cryptocurrency-reach/
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?Newman Leech
Newman Leech's success in the real estate industry is based on key lessons and principles, offering practical advice for new investors and serving as a blueprint for building a successful career.
“Amidst Tempered Optimism” Main economic trends in May 2024 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On 12 June 2024 the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (May 2024)”.
During the event, the results of the 25-th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in May 2024, were presented.
The field stage of the 25-th wave lasted from May 20 to May 31, 2024. In May, 532 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in May 2024 with April, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (May 2024), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
✅ More survey results in the presentation.
✅ Video presentation: https://youtu.be/4ZvsSKd1MzE
Budgeting as a Control Tool in Government Accounting in Nigeria
Being a Paper Presented at the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) Budget Office Staff at Sojourner Hotel, GRA, Ikeja Lagos on Saturday 8th June, 2024.
2. Pravartak December 15 - February 16 Volume X Issue 4
Importance of Enterprise Risk Management in Life
Insurance Sector
This Paper describes the landscape of Enterprise Risk
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3. LQ WKH FRXQWULHV ZKHUH 6ROYHQF,,
framework is applicable in the developed market and where
the Indian Insurance Market is currently placed in this regard.
The paper further describes the future of ERM in India and what
could be the success factors in its implementation.
Why Risk Management is required
Risk is present everywhere in all walks of life; this is particularly
more true in the life insurance business which deals in the
management of risk of its policyholder against his/her early
death, living longer than anticipated( longevity risk) or
movement of interest rates adversely than required to be meet
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4. ¿[HG OLDELOLW LQ IXWXUH ,Q WKLV SURFHVV RI
managing the risks of policyholders, life companies themselves
expose to these risks. These risks are priced in a form of a
premium; however the adverse variability of actual experience
of parameters such as mortality, lapses, interest rates etc used
in the pricing could leads adverse risk for insurance companies.
It is therefore important to manage these risks so that the
losses due these adverse movements can be minimized. In
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RI WKH RWKHU DGYDQWDJHV RI ULVN PDQDJHPHQW DUH
x Better risk transfer
x Understanding of linkage between business growth risk
and return.
x Better allocation of capital
x Improve valuation of the company
x Reduce earnings volatility
x Increase shareholder value addition etc.
x Why Risk Management Now
2008 economic crisis accelerated the pace of development of risk
management (ERM) in a similar way the “Great Depression” in
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of the book “General Theory of Employment, Interest and
Money” by John Maynard Keynes. The idea by Keynes was to
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RI WKH UHDVRQV RI HFRQRPLF FULVLV ZHUH
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Vice President (Business Risk) at Aviva
India Life Insurance Company Limited.
He can be reached at
sonjai_kumar@hotmail.com
Leaving aside the colloquialism
of the corporate world, the
notion of a VUCA world does well
describetherealitiesofoperating
and building businesses in
today’s challenging world.
It is no longer enough to
take a silo approach to risk
management focusing only on
a couple of key risk factors or
simply local factors.
Sonjai Kumar *
Disclaimer: Views expressed in this
article are mine and not necessarily of
my employer
5. 10 Pravartak December 15 - February 16 Volume X Issue 4
x Overall control failure
x Failure of the Board Room
x Too innovative products
x Easy available credit
x 3RRU ¿QDQFLDO XQGHUZULWLQJ
Though the 2008 Economic crisis has led to
hastening of use of risk management tools,
the work on risk based capital where good risk
management helps in improving the capital
position of the Company started some eight
to ten years before the economic crisis. This
indicates that world had started moving towards
reward of risk management much before the
economic crisis.
The post crisis 2008, many papers were written
on the possibility of future recurrence of such
crisis, however, it has been concluded that no
risk management can totally prevent another
crisis but it can prepare
the world better to reduce
its adverse impact or delay
the crystallization of risk in
a similar way no economic
theory can lead to insulation.
What is ERM?
Risk management is in
existence in insurance sector
for 100s of years. Life insurance companies are
managing mortality, longevity, interest rate,
expense and lapse risk for many of years,
however the risk management tools utilized
used to be in silo, that is, risk management was
limited to few people or few departments.
On the contrary, ERM is an integration of risk
strategy and risk management across the
company. The Board at the top of the ladder
is owners of risk policies implemented by
CRO. Risk objective are fully built into every
function head and they are evaluated on those
risk objective apart from other objective of
the company. This way it is ensured that risk
objective and risk culture moves down to the
DNA of the organization to fully integrate risk
management across the Organization.
Instead of defensive control oriented approach
of downside risk and earning volatility under
silo approach, the idea of ERM is to optimize
business performance by optimal allocation of
resource through risk based decision making
to make risk management as an offensive
tool. The biggest advantage of ERM is to give
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correlation of risks to encourage various risks
taking ability.
Transition into ERM
The transition of the world is towards ERM where
CRO is becoming an important position in the
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in the implementation of the Risk Management
frame work. In 2015 in UK, “CRO insurance
survey” was conducted by Ernst and Young has
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DQG UHLQVXUDQFH ¿UPV ZHUH LQWHUYLHZHG
1. The standing of CRO’s is consistently
increasing across market, however
views on CRO role and its
evaluation is differ.
2. RI WKH ¿UPV KDYH
formalized their systems of
governance around three
“lines of defence” but no
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Regulatory intrusiveness
and uncertainty has been
and will continue to be a “distraction”
to the CRO role.
4. 76% of CRO state that Own Risk
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6. adds value to their organization but
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remains a challenge.
5. People and skill set remain key priorities
for investment.
The capital determination in banking sector is
done based on risk based capital under Basel-
II/III norm in a similar way in insurance sector
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implemented where capital determination is
based on risk based capital.
Instead of defensive control oriented
approachofdownsideriskandearning
volatility under silo approach, the
idea of ERM is to optimize business
performance by optimal allocation of
resource through risk based decision
making to make risk management
as an offensive tool.
,PSRUWDQFH RI (QWHUSULVH 5LVN 0DQDJHPHQW LQ /LIH ,QVXUDQFH 6HFWRU
Pravartak
7. 11Pravartak December 15 - February 16 Volume X Issue 4
Risk Based Capital
The historic method of capital determination for
solvency purpose in insurance companies were
based on solvency-I method using formula (x%
of Reserves+ y% of sum at risk, where x and
y different for different product line). In this
approach two different companies with similar
products, strategy, management, business
volume would have similar capital requirement
even if one company is with very good risk
management while other with not so good risk
management. This is because the formula does
not allow use of good risk management in the
calculation of solvency capital, though there
could be some second order effect due to good
experience resulting from risk management
efforts.
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on capital saving due to good risk management.
Ideally, poorly risk managed companies
should have more risk, more chances of losses
and therefore should have higher capital
requirement to meet extra loses. Therefore, in
risk based capital, capital is calculated based on
ULVN SUR¿OH RI WKH /LIH RPSDQLHV 6R D EHWWHU
risk managed company will have lower capital
requirement as compare to poorly risk managed
company. Therefore solvency-II provides
incentive to invest in risk management.
Risk based capital is calculated using value at
risk (VaR) methodology.
This is a statistical tool
where VaR is calculated
as maximum loss to the
company in a given time
frame and within certain
level of probability. This
time frame could be one day
or one year or any other period as desired and
SUREDELOLW OHYHO FRXOG EH RU DQ
level required for the purpose.
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‡ 3LOODU 4XDQWLWDWLYH UHTXLUHPHQW
Market risk, Credit Risk, Equities risk,
Operational risk
‡ 3LOODU 4XDOLWDWLYH UHTXLUHPHQW
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‡ 3LOODU 'LVFORVXUH
Pillar-1 and Pillar-II interacts, while Pillar-III
interacts with both Pillar-1 and Pilllar-2
This is the position of solvency II applicable in
European countries;
On the other hand India is working on solvency
I regime where capital is calculated based
on formula approach. To initiate the risk
management culture in the Indian insurance,
regulator (IRDA) has made CRO position
mandatory in every life insurance company.
76% of CRO state that Own Risk
DQG 6ROYHQF $VVHVVPHQW 256$
8. adds value to their organization
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embedding remains a challenge.
Pillar-I
Quantita-
tive part
of capital
calculation
Pillar -II
Risk Man-
agement
Pillar -III
disclousers
Also the IRDA made it mandatory to have
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on its website. IRDA also asks to calculate life
companies risk based capital on an annual basis
for reporting purpose only. Life companies also
submit their assets and liability position on
quarterly basis.
All the insurance companies
must have Assets and
Liabilities Committee
and Risk Management
Committee as a part of
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companies in the Indian
market are following risk
management processes prevalent in foreign
partner country.
Future of Risk Management in India.
The future of risk management in India is
likely to increase in future due to increase in
oversight required by foreign player meeting
the requirement under solvency-II. The
Indian regulator may also increase focus on
,PSRUWDQFH RI (QWHUSULVH 5LVN 0DQDJHPHQW LQ /LIH ,QVXUDQFH 6HFWRU
Pravartak
9. 12 Pravartak December 15 - February 16 Volume X Issue 4
risk management to increase oversight. The
opportunities in the risk management area is
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there in liquidity risk, credit risk, interest rate
risk, operational risk etc.
Success factor
On the individual front, the key success factor
for risk management is the understanding of
the risk management tools and good knowledge
of business and its products along with good
communication skills. Risk management is a
partnership game and not a police man role.
Therefore attitude inter personal skills are
equally important in the overall success of risk
management success.
,PSRUWDQFH RI (QWHUSULVH 5LVN 0DQDJHPHQW LQ /LIH ,QVXUDQFH 6HFWRU
Pravartak
”
“Risk management is a partnership
game and not a police man role.