An ageing population is caused by declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. This has led to a declining youth population and growing elderly population in countries like the UK. A population pyramid is used to show the structure of a population by age and gender. Countries with ageing populations face economic and social challenges supporting older dependents on working age populations. Issues include higher healthcare costs, pension crises, and declining tax bases.

1. WB GLOBAL CITIZENSHIP ADVANCED
KEY QUESTION: SHOULD YOU BE CONCERNED
ABOUT THE IMPACT OF AN AGEING
POPULATION?
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2. What is an Ageing population?
An ageing population is caused by a decline in birth rates, an increase in life
expectancy and a decline in death rates.
The UK has an ageing population. This has led to a declining proportion of the
population aged under 16 and an increasing proportion aged 65 and over.
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3. What is a population pyramid?
• A population pyramid is a graph which is used to show
the structure of a population.
They are divided up into males
and females
The data is
sorted into
different
age groups
The
youngest
people are
at the
bottom
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4. UK
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5. From a population pyramid it is possible to
identify what stage of the demographic
transition model a country is in.
Jeff Moses WB 2015 Population11/7/2016 6

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What is the issue?
Many developed nations, including
Britain, are experiencing the rapid
ageing of their populations.
Adapting to this trend poses economic,
social and political challenges which will
raise the dependency of older citizens
on those of working age.
Japan, Germany Italy, Spain, Russia
and China all face the beginning of a
similar demographic fate over the next
few decades.
There are two megatrends causing these demographic
changes:
1 Low / declining fertility rate
Women in Britain are having fewer children that previous
generations
2 Rising longevity
People are living longer, through improvements in health, diet
and preventative care
http://www.21stcenturychalle
nges.org/focus/britains-
greying-population/

7. Some ageing population drivers
Declining fertility rates Increased life expectancy and falling death rates.
Knowledge empowerment - impact of improved health
and education policies i.e. family planning, contraception,
western society trend. How will migration help some
economies facing structural decline?
General improvements in life expectancy, but still a geographic
lottery. Where you live and income levels are factors. Why?
High cost of bringing up children in UK – child care,
housing costs and high cost of living – “Rip-off Britain”
argument.
Improvements in health care mean illness is diagnosed and
treated effectively.
Issues around equality, or, lack of it, still. High standard of living e.g central heating, good diet, exercise,
education.
Need for dual incomes to maintain affordable living
standard.
Less arduous occupations. Can you think of any?
Less children = more disposal income Improvements in maternity care.
Dependance on parents for support because of high costs
– the new working poor.
Less loss of life through natural disasters, conflict or disease.
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The Demographic Timebomb
•In 2009, the global number of older
people passed 700 million. This is
projected to be 2 billion by 2050.
Already two-thirds live in low & middle
income countries
• In the “more developed” regions over
20% of the population is 60+. By 2050,
nearly 33% of the population is projected
to be in that age grou
• In the “less developed” regions, older
people account today for 8% of the
population; by 2050 they are expected to
account for over 20%

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FEWER, GREYER, OLDER – THIS IS THE FUTURE OF EUROPE

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Athough the EU’s population
will continue to rise it will reach
its peak around 2050.
In some countries such as
Germany, Spain and Poland, the
shrinking has already begun.
This is shown starkly by the age
dependency ratio. Today, there
are around four working-age
people for every pensioner
aged 65 or older, by 2060, there
will be only two workers to
support every senior.

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Source: European Commission
This is more bad news for
policy-makers and those who
dream of a prosperous
European future.
Two key things come from this
trend: higher costs and lower
tax receipts. There will be a
significant increase in costs for
public health systems and care.
Germany is the worst affected
by this, facing an extra bill of 5%
of its GDP.
What about the implications for
Wales, and the rest of the UK?
With austerity about to enter a
new phase, and economic
growth hard to sustain, this
issue could become a major
economic drag that politicians
have yet to address.

12. • The 21st century is the century of
ageing –
“The new millennium closes the first chapter in
human history: when we were young”
(Paul Wallace: “Agequake”)
• Life expectancy is extending
worldwide, fertility rates are falling,
and ageing is accelerating.
“The ageing of humanity across the world is a
defining stage in history. It will change everything
from business and finance to society and culture”
(Wallace)
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http://www.geographylwc.org.uk/GCSE/ig
cse/population/agepop.html
http://www.youtube.com/wat
ch?v=wM0YO1uSZ_8

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Forecast for Dependency Ratios in Different
Countries
Source: Dept for Work and Pensions

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The Demographic Timebomb Crippling Japan's Economy
 Demographics will increasingly
pile pressure on Japan’s already
sluggish growth problems.
 Years of improved health have
produced the longest-lived people
on the planet, while decades of
very low birth-rates have brought
dwindling young people into the
workforce.
 By 2030 Japan will have less than
two people of working age for
each retiree. Less than two
workers will have to produce and
pay taxes for themselves, their
dependants and half a retiree. The
implications are frightening!
 The current retirement age is 60.
This, once the most dynamic

15. 16 | HelpAge International | Presentation title | Author’s name | November 17, 2008
Asia has the largest, fastest growing older population
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Oceania Nth
america
Sth
america
Africa Europe Asia
1950
1990
2025

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DEFINITION
This is a potential crisis situation that is most pressing
in developed countries, Japan and Germany being at
the forefront. Its characteristics show an increasing
number of older people dependent on pension
schemes due to demographic shortfalls.
As the dependency ratio rises, the income of the
working population ( made-up of a falling number of
younger people) comes under greater pressure to
provide taxes for the non-working (older and
growing) segment.
In this scenario, pension schemes based on the
contributions of the working population start to run
out of money and may have to be replaced by
schemes based on higher taxes – potentially
politically explosive. You could be working way
beyond current retirement ages to pay for this!!!!
Jeff Moses 2015
LEARNING TROUBLE
SPOT – What does the
term ‘demographic
timebomb’ mean?
Is this cartoon being somewhat
pessimistic? If so, why?

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Britain faces fiscal crunch from demographic timebomb
Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) casts doubt over George Osborne's plans to run a budget
surplus in times of economic growth
a growing pensions and long-term care bill means the
government will need start borrowing to plug the gap
between revenues and spending from 2023-24, even if the
economy grows at a steady pace of around 2.4pc a year
Photo: Alamy Source: ‘The Telegraph’ 21st
September 2015

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Monday 21 September 2015China may scrap one-child
policy to curb demographic
time bomb
The country is dealing with an ageing population
and a dwindling labour force
Source: ‘The
Independent’
A woman cycles pass a billboard
encouraging couples to have only
one child (Image: Getty)
http://www.independent.co.uk/
news/world/asia/china-may-
scrap-onechild-policy-to-curb-
demographic-time-bomb-
10409215.html

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Some issues:
1) Increased strain on healthcare
services/systems
2) Pensions crisis as numbers of those in
work decline
3) Retirement age – longer working
4) Shrinking tax base
5) Economic growth and productivity
6) Skills shortages in key sectors of the
economy
7) Migration
8) Taxation levels
9) Permanent austerity
10) Transport – is it fit for purpose?
11) Spending patterns will change
Discuss the impact of these, and, any other
factors. Present your finding to the rest of
the group/class.
CRITICAL THINKINGACTIVITY

20. Advantages and Disadvantages of an Ageing Society
Potential Advantages Potential Disadvantages
The elderly may have skills (including
social skills) and training, that they
are sometimes preferred over
younger workers.
There are inadequate nursing
facilities as older people are more
susceptible to illness.
The elderly may look after their
grandchildren and therefore allow
both parents to work for example in
Japan and S Africa.
There is a depletion of the labour
force as older people retire, possibly
compounded by the migration of
industry overseas in search of larger
and cheaper workforces.
In many MEDC’s the elderly are
viewed as an important markets – the
‘grey economy.’ Many firms, ranging
from holiday companies to healthcare
providers, specifically target this
market.
The high cost of funding pensions and
healthcare means the tax burden
falls on fewer and younger workers.
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What Choices Do the Government Have?
1.With prospect of higher spending and relatively lower tax receipts, the government may
have to consider some politically unpopular policies.
Raise retirement age to reflect longer life spans. In 1950, average life expectancy was 75.
It is now 86. But a higher retirement age will not be welcomed by people who have been
planning and expecting to retire at 65. Governments may delay implementation of higher
pension age for several years.
2.Higher tax rates. Increasing income tax to pay for an ageing population hardly inspires.
The argument is higher tax rates will reduce productivity and deter people working. The
impact of higher taxes on labour productivity is less than many claim, but, it would still be an
unwelcome development
3.Cut spending. Making people pay for private health care and private nursing homes is one
solution. But, it would inevitably require an extensive and unpopular means tested scheme to
decide who can't afford. It won't please children seeing a fall in their inheritance levels.
4.Immigration. Immigration of young workers will be one of the easiest solutions to the
demographic time bomb. But, immigration may prove to be too controversial.

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Experts defuse demographic timebomb of ageing UK
BUT IS IT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM?
The BMA argues that the impact of
an ageing population has been
exaggerated and the number of
dependent people in the UK is
actually falling.
In recent years, politicians have
issued stark warnings about the
effect increasing life expectancy will
have on public services such as the
NHS and welfare system, often to
justify austerity measures.
Read more:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/health/expert
s-defuse-demographic-timebomb-of-ageing-uk-
1-3186005#ixzz3mN7TnIuF
http://www.scotsman.com/new
s/health/experts-defuse-
demographic-timebomb-of-
ageing-uk-1-3186005

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Skills Knowledge: Critical Thinking
Term Definition How confident do I feel in understanding and using this
term?
Very confident Somewhat
confident
Not very
confident
Evidence
Credibility
Corroboration
Neutral interest
I have learnt how to: How confident do I feel in doing this?
Very confident Somewhat
confident
Not very
confident
Use credibility criteria
Weigh up circumstantial evidence
Investigate vested interest
Identify sources of bias, prejudice, bias and propaganda
Determine credibility of expertise
Evaluate reputation

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Critical Thinking: Putting Forward a Reasoned Point of View/Argument
Term Definition How confident do I feel in understanding and using
this term?
Very confident Somewhat
confident
Not very
confident
Argument
Conclusion
Reason
Assumption
I have learnt how to: How confident do I feel in doing this?
Very confident Somewhat
confident
Not very
confident
Present arguments symbolically
Use different patterns of reasoning (simple, side by side, joint and chain)
Understand how to challenge arguments
Identify reason indicators
Identify conclusion indicators
Identify flaws in arguments

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Skills Knowledge
Problem Solving
Term Definition How confident do I feel in understanding and
using this term?
Very confident Somewhat
confident
Not very
confident
Problem
Systematic methods
Trial and error
Key terms:
I have learnt how to: How confident do I feel in doing this?
Very confident Somewhat
confident
Not very
confident
Understand and apply the process of problem solving (IDEAL)
Interpret information presented in different formats
Access reliable and credible information using the internet
Be able to check if a problem has been solved