1. Risk monitoring plays a pivotal role in the risk management process by assessing if previous risk management actions reduced residual risks or if changes require revised actions.
2. It provides early warning signals of risks changing or emerging risks by monitoring key risk indicators and outcomes.
3. Emerging risks identified through monitoring may impact strategies, so monitoring helps re-align strategies to changing internal and external environments over the long-term.
This presentation was given in International Management Institute (IMI), New Delhi on 19th May 2017. This was given to the One year Executive management students.
3rd Asia Conference on risk based capital (Manila 29 30 March-17)Sonjai Kumar, SIRM
This presentation was given at the 3rd Asia Conference in Risk Based Capital on 29th and 30th March 2017 in Manila. This presentation was in the context of Philipinnes moving to the second phase of RBC. The Conference organized by Asia Insurance Review
Moving towards RBC- in the context of Indian Insurance MarketSonjai Kumar, SIRM
The regulator in India is moving towards adopting a risk-based capital framework, though it has not been implemented yet. Currently, capital requirements are based on a solvency I approach and do not directly account for risk. However, the regulator has taken several steps in recent years similar to risk-based systems by requiring greater financial disclosures, stress testing, and governance guidelines. A committee recommended adopting a "twin peaks" model, where current solvency norms would work alongside new risk-based capital requirements, as India prepares to fully transition to a risk-based capital framework.
Role of Enterprise Risk Management in Risk Based CapitalSonjai Kumar, SIRM
This presentation is given in the First South Asian Actuarial Conference held in Colombo on 12th and 13th July 2017.
The presentation is on how does risk management can help in optimizing the capital requirement in the life insurance industry
1. Risk monitoring plays a pivotal role in the risk management process by assessing if previous risk management actions reduced residual risks or if changes require revised actions.
2. It provides early warning signals of risks changing or emerging risks by monitoring key risk indicators and outcomes.
3. Emerging risks identified through monitoring may impact strategies, so monitoring helps re-align strategies to changing internal and external environments over the long-term.
This presentation was given in International Management Institute (IMI), New Delhi on 19th May 2017. This was given to the One year Executive management students.
3rd Asia Conference on risk based capital (Manila 29 30 March-17)Sonjai Kumar, SIRM
This presentation was given at the 3rd Asia Conference in Risk Based Capital on 29th and 30th March 2017 in Manila. This presentation was in the context of Philipinnes moving to the second phase of RBC. The Conference organized by Asia Insurance Review
Moving towards RBC- in the context of Indian Insurance MarketSonjai Kumar, SIRM
The regulator in India is moving towards adopting a risk-based capital framework, though it has not been implemented yet. Currently, capital requirements are based on a solvency I approach and do not directly account for risk. However, the regulator has taken several steps in recent years similar to risk-based systems by requiring greater financial disclosures, stress testing, and governance guidelines. A committee recommended adopting a "twin peaks" model, where current solvency norms would work alongside new risk-based capital requirements, as India prepares to fully transition to a risk-based capital framework.
Role of Enterprise Risk Management in Risk Based CapitalSonjai Kumar, SIRM
This presentation is given in the First South Asian Actuarial Conference held in Colombo on 12th and 13th July 2017.
The presentation is on how does risk management can help in optimizing the capital requirement in the life insurance industry
This document summarizes the key topics presented at the National Conference on Finance and Economics 2016 in Lucknow, India. The conference aimed to promote research at the intersection of economics and finance and bring together researchers, practitioners and policymakers. The presentation discusses the relationship between the economy and insurance sector, how macroeconomic factors impact insurance businesses, and the potential effects of global risks like geopolitical, environmental and economic risks on the Indian economy and insurance industry. It provides an overview of historical insurance and economic trends in India.
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are important risk management tools used by banks and insurance companies. VaR measures potential losses within a given probability level but fails to capture losses in the tail of a distribution. Stress testing assesses the impact of potential adverse scenarios by stressing key risk factors. It helps entities understand their risk profile and maintain adequate capital. Stress testing in the life insurance sector helps assess risks related to business planning, products, assets/liabilities, and capital. Both sensitivity testing (small changes to factors) and scenario testing (alternative future states) are used. The success of stress testing depends on using appropriate scenarios, management/board understanding of results, and realistic action plans. Regulators also require stress
The document discusses the influence of the insurance sector on the Indian economy and vice versa. It notes that the life insurance market in India is expected to grow significantly over the next 10 years. While insurance penetration and density have increased, they remain lower than other developed countries, indicating significant potential for future growth. The relationship between economic factors like GDP growth, disposable income, and the insurance sector is explored. Challenges and opportunities for future growth of the insurance sector in India are also highlighted.
This document discusses risk management in the life insurance industry. It provides an overview of enterprise risk management (ERM), how risk management has evolved globally and in India, and the future of risk management. Key points include:
- ERM takes a holistic approach to risk management across the entire company rather than operating in silos. It helps optimize business performance through risk-based decision making.
- Globally, risk management is increasingly important with the adoption of solvency regulations like Solvency II in Europe and risk-based capital standards. India currently follows a formula-based Solvency I approach but is showing increased interest in risk management.
- The future of risk management in India involves greater
Treasury Risk Management_Summit_Sonjai Kumar_ALM Life Ins_v2Sonjai Kumar, SIRM
Assets and liability management (ALM) is necessary for life insurance companies to manage financial risks and ensure financial health. ALM involves matching the term, nature, and currency of assets to the liabilities to manage risks like interest rate risk. In India, most products transitioned from unit-linked to traditional products with maturity guarantees after 2010, increasing ALM risk. Simple ALM measures include duration matching, cash flow matching, and strategic asset allocation within regulatory limits and risk appetite. An example shows potential losses from reinvesting at lower future interest rates.
1) The global financial crisis highlighted failures in risk management and corporate governance at many major financial institutions. Risk management departments lacked prestige compared to trading operations and did not enforce prudent risk practices.
2) Boards of directors did not adequately oversee risk and failed to establish qualified risk management committees. Many directors lacked banking experience.
3) High-risk activities and compensation were not properly aligned with long-term company interests. Bonuses encouraged excessive short-term risk-taking.
4) Risk managers lacked understanding of complex products and risks. Early warnings of liquidity issues were ignored without implementing contingency plans. Over-reliance on credit ratings also contributed to problems.
The Eighth Global Conference of Actuaries was held in Mumbai, India and organized by the Actuarial Society of India. Over two days, the conference covered topics in life, health, general and non-life insurance. It featured keynote addresses, panel discussions, and presentations on issues facing the actuarial profession such as asset-liability management, investment guarantees, and the emerging market for outsourcing actuarial services to India. The conference highlighted the growth of the actuarial profession in India since the liberalization of the insurance industry and the energy of students pursuing new opportunities in the field.
This document summarizes a paper that analyzes critical illness rates in India for cardiovascular diseases, strokes, and cancer. Some key findings include:
1. Coronary heart disease is more prevalent in India than cancer, unlike in the UK where cancer is more common. Heart disease rates in India are expected to increase significantly in the coming decades.
2. Both males and females in India have higher rates of coronary heart disease compared to counterparts in the UK, especially at younger ages.
3. Stroke rates are much lower in India compared to the UK.
4. Cancer rates in India are higher for both males and females up to age 60, after which UK rates become higher.
5.
This document summarizes a paper on motor premium rating in India. It discusses the current tariff regime for motor insurance that is leading to losses for many companies. With the likely deregulation of motor insurance tariffs, companies will need to use actuarial fundamentals to scientifically price policies. It emphasizes the importance of collecting comprehensive driver, vehicle, and policy data to analyze risk groups and determine appropriate premiums. The document provides an overview of how to calculate an adequate overall premium and determine differential ratings based on risk factors.
This document discusses the socio-economic challenges facing developed countries as the baby boom generation retires between 2007-2011. This will shrink the workforce and increase the proportion of older people requiring pensions and healthcare. Outsourcing work to India is proposed as a solution to supplement the shrinking workforce in countries like Germany, France, Italy and the UK. India has a large and growing workforce that could help address labor shortages in Europe through remote work outsourcing without increasing migration pressures. The document analyzes population trends and projections in European and Indian populations to 2050 to argue that India will have a large surplus workforce available to support developed country needs.
ERM provides a framework for capital allocation, optimizing return, and managing projects under a company's risk and return objectives. It helps companies understand their risk appetite and allocate capital accordingly, while monitoring risks and reporting so risks remain in line with the risk appetite over the long term. ERM thus gives a company a holistic view of its overall risk profile to help ensure the sustainable achievement of its objectives.
This book provides a summary of 100 tips for managing insurance capital under the Solvency II regulatory framework. The book is written for a wide audience, including CFOs, actuaries, risk managers, and others. It explains capital management concepts, Solvency II details, stress testing, and other risk-based solvency approaches. The writing style is explanatory and the book includes appendices to help explain complex topics. It offers insights and ideas applicable to different roles for understanding and optimizing capital requirements.
1. The document discusses challenges in calculating the duration of liabilities for regular premium paying life insurance products due to changing signs of liability cash flows over the life of the product.
2. It proposes using the first derivative of assets and liability cash flows rather than duration as a better method for asset and liability management to match their interest rate sensitivity.
3. Adjusting the timing and amounts of asset cash flows can help optimize matching between the first derivatives of assets and liabilities to better manage interest rate risk.
This document summarizes a paper analyzing mortality variations across India. It finds that overall mortality rates declined between 1971 and 1996 censuses. Female mortality rates were consistently lower than male rates. Life expectancy increased substantially from 1970-75 to 1993-97, though rural rates remained below urban. About 36% of the population lives below the poverty line, and their mortality is likely heavier than the overall population mortality captured in census data. Assured lives mortality from insurance data is even lighter than population mortality due to selection effects excluding high-risk individuals.
Role of Actuaries in Enterprise Risk Management Sonjai_Rajiv(17 GCA) Final CopySonjai Kumar, SIRM
Actuaries have traditionally been involved in risk identification and measurement in insurance, particularly for mortality, lapse, expense, and interest rate risk. However, the role of actuaries is expanding to enterprise risk management (ERM) in insurance and other financial sectors like banking. Actuaries' quantitative skills make them well-suited for ERM tasks like calculating economic capital, value at risk, and stress testing across various risk types. The Solvency II regulations also provide opportunities for actuaries to be involved in all three pillars of the solvency framework. For actuaries to take on broader ERM roles, they need to enhance their skills in areas like credit, liquidity, and operational risk management.
The document discusses the role of actuaries in enterprise risk management (ERM). It outlines how ERM has evolved in response to major risk failures over the past two decades. Actuaries traditionally focused on areas like pricing, valuation, and modeling, but now have an expanded role under Solvency II and a broader ERM approach. The document provides examples of how actuaries can assess and manage risks in both the insurance and banking industries using common tools and their quantitative skills. It suggests actuaries will need additional training to work in risk management for banks but their skills are well-suited to help various industries with ERM.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Enhancing Asset Quality: Strategies for Financial Institutionsshruti1menon2
Ensuring robust asset quality is not just a mere aspect but a critical cornerstone for the stability and success of financial institutions worldwide. It serves as the bedrock upon which profitability is built and investor confidence is sustained. Therefore, in this presentation, we delve into a comprehensive exploration of strategies that can aid financial institutions in achieving and maintaining superior asset quality.
This document summarizes the key topics presented at the National Conference on Finance and Economics 2016 in Lucknow, India. The conference aimed to promote research at the intersection of economics and finance and bring together researchers, practitioners and policymakers. The presentation discusses the relationship between the economy and insurance sector, how macroeconomic factors impact insurance businesses, and the potential effects of global risks like geopolitical, environmental and economic risks on the Indian economy and insurance industry. It provides an overview of historical insurance and economic trends in India.
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are important risk management tools used by banks and insurance companies. VaR measures potential losses within a given probability level but fails to capture losses in the tail of a distribution. Stress testing assesses the impact of potential adverse scenarios by stressing key risk factors. It helps entities understand their risk profile and maintain adequate capital. Stress testing in the life insurance sector helps assess risks related to business planning, products, assets/liabilities, and capital. Both sensitivity testing (small changes to factors) and scenario testing (alternative future states) are used. The success of stress testing depends on using appropriate scenarios, management/board understanding of results, and realistic action plans. Regulators also require stress
The document discusses the influence of the insurance sector on the Indian economy and vice versa. It notes that the life insurance market in India is expected to grow significantly over the next 10 years. While insurance penetration and density have increased, they remain lower than other developed countries, indicating significant potential for future growth. The relationship between economic factors like GDP growth, disposable income, and the insurance sector is explored. Challenges and opportunities for future growth of the insurance sector in India are also highlighted.
This document discusses risk management in the life insurance industry. It provides an overview of enterprise risk management (ERM), how risk management has evolved globally and in India, and the future of risk management. Key points include:
- ERM takes a holistic approach to risk management across the entire company rather than operating in silos. It helps optimize business performance through risk-based decision making.
- Globally, risk management is increasingly important with the adoption of solvency regulations like Solvency II in Europe and risk-based capital standards. India currently follows a formula-based Solvency I approach but is showing increased interest in risk management.
- The future of risk management in India involves greater
Treasury Risk Management_Summit_Sonjai Kumar_ALM Life Ins_v2Sonjai Kumar, SIRM
Assets and liability management (ALM) is necessary for life insurance companies to manage financial risks and ensure financial health. ALM involves matching the term, nature, and currency of assets to the liabilities to manage risks like interest rate risk. In India, most products transitioned from unit-linked to traditional products with maturity guarantees after 2010, increasing ALM risk. Simple ALM measures include duration matching, cash flow matching, and strategic asset allocation within regulatory limits and risk appetite. An example shows potential losses from reinvesting at lower future interest rates.
1) The global financial crisis highlighted failures in risk management and corporate governance at many major financial institutions. Risk management departments lacked prestige compared to trading operations and did not enforce prudent risk practices.
2) Boards of directors did not adequately oversee risk and failed to establish qualified risk management committees. Many directors lacked banking experience.
3) High-risk activities and compensation were not properly aligned with long-term company interests. Bonuses encouraged excessive short-term risk-taking.
4) Risk managers lacked understanding of complex products and risks. Early warnings of liquidity issues were ignored without implementing contingency plans. Over-reliance on credit ratings also contributed to problems.
The Eighth Global Conference of Actuaries was held in Mumbai, India and organized by the Actuarial Society of India. Over two days, the conference covered topics in life, health, general and non-life insurance. It featured keynote addresses, panel discussions, and presentations on issues facing the actuarial profession such as asset-liability management, investment guarantees, and the emerging market for outsourcing actuarial services to India. The conference highlighted the growth of the actuarial profession in India since the liberalization of the insurance industry and the energy of students pursuing new opportunities in the field.
This document summarizes a paper that analyzes critical illness rates in India for cardiovascular diseases, strokes, and cancer. Some key findings include:
1. Coronary heart disease is more prevalent in India than cancer, unlike in the UK where cancer is more common. Heart disease rates in India are expected to increase significantly in the coming decades.
2. Both males and females in India have higher rates of coronary heart disease compared to counterparts in the UK, especially at younger ages.
3. Stroke rates are much lower in India compared to the UK.
4. Cancer rates in India are higher for both males and females up to age 60, after which UK rates become higher.
5.
This document summarizes a paper on motor premium rating in India. It discusses the current tariff regime for motor insurance that is leading to losses for many companies. With the likely deregulation of motor insurance tariffs, companies will need to use actuarial fundamentals to scientifically price policies. It emphasizes the importance of collecting comprehensive driver, vehicle, and policy data to analyze risk groups and determine appropriate premiums. The document provides an overview of how to calculate an adequate overall premium and determine differential ratings based on risk factors.
This document discusses the socio-economic challenges facing developed countries as the baby boom generation retires between 2007-2011. This will shrink the workforce and increase the proportion of older people requiring pensions and healthcare. Outsourcing work to India is proposed as a solution to supplement the shrinking workforce in countries like Germany, France, Italy and the UK. India has a large and growing workforce that could help address labor shortages in Europe through remote work outsourcing without increasing migration pressures. The document analyzes population trends and projections in European and Indian populations to 2050 to argue that India will have a large surplus workforce available to support developed country needs.
ERM provides a framework for capital allocation, optimizing return, and managing projects under a company's risk and return objectives. It helps companies understand their risk appetite and allocate capital accordingly, while monitoring risks and reporting so risks remain in line with the risk appetite over the long term. ERM thus gives a company a holistic view of its overall risk profile to help ensure the sustainable achievement of its objectives.
This book provides a summary of 100 tips for managing insurance capital under the Solvency II regulatory framework. The book is written for a wide audience, including CFOs, actuaries, risk managers, and others. It explains capital management concepts, Solvency II details, stress testing, and other risk-based solvency approaches. The writing style is explanatory and the book includes appendices to help explain complex topics. It offers insights and ideas applicable to different roles for understanding and optimizing capital requirements.
1. The document discusses challenges in calculating the duration of liabilities for regular premium paying life insurance products due to changing signs of liability cash flows over the life of the product.
2. It proposes using the first derivative of assets and liability cash flows rather than duration as a better method for asset and liability management to match their interest rate sensitivity.
3. Adjusting the timing and amounts of asset cash flows can help optimize matching between the first derivatives of assets and liabilities to better manage interest rate risk.
This document summarizes a paper analyzing mortality variations across India. It finds that overall mortality rates declined between 1971 and 1996 censuses. Female mortality rates were consistently lower than male rates. Life expectancy increased substantially from 1970-75 to 1993-97, though rural rates remained below urban. About 36% of the population lives below the poverty line, and their mortality is likely heavier than the overall population mortality captured in census data. Assured lives mortality from insurance data is even lighter than population mortality due to selection effects excluding high-risk individuals.
Role of Actuaries in Enterprise Risk Management Sonjai_Rajiv(17 GCA) Final CopySonjai Kumar, SIRM
Actuaries have traditionally been involved in risk identification and measurement in insurance, particularly for mortality, lapse, expense, and interest rate risk. However, the role of actuaries is expanding to enterprise risk management (ERM) in insurance and other financial sectors like banking. Actuaries' quantitative skills make them well-suited for ERM tasks like calculating economic capital, value at risk, and stress testing across various risk types. The Solvency II regulations also provide opportunities for actuaries to be involved in all three pillars of the solvency framework. For actuaries to take on broader ERM roles, they need to enhance their skills in areas like credit, liquidity, and operational risk management.
The document discusses the role of actuaries in enterprise risk management (ERM). It outlines how ERM has evolved in response to major risk failures over the past two decades. Actuaries traditionally focused on areas like pricing, valuation, and modeling, but now have an expanded role under Solvency II and a broader ERM approach. The document provides examples of how actuaries can assess and manage risks in both the insurance and banking industries using common tools and their quantitative skills. It suggests actuaries will need additional training to work in risk management for banks but their skills are well-suited to help various industries with ERM.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Enhancing Asset Quality: Strategies for Financial Institutionsshruti1menon2
Ensuring robust asset quality is not just a mere aspect but a critical cornerstone for the stability and success of financial institutions worldwide. It serves as the bedrock upon which profitability is built and investor confidence is sustained. Therefore, in this presentation, we delve into a comprehensive exploration of strategies that can aid financial institutions in achieving and maintaining superior asset quality.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
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The Universal Account Number (UAN) by EPFO centralizes multiple PF accounts, simplifying management for Indian employees. It streamlines PF transfers, withdrawals, and KYC updates, providing transparency and reducing employer dependency. Despite challenges like digital literacy and internet access, UAN is vital for financial empowerment and efficient provident fund management in today's digital age.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
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Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
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Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.