Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI for August 2015, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK regions, NI and Republic of Ireland performance by sector
Richard Ramsey delivered a presentation to the Personal Financial Society's Financial Planning in Focus Conference on November 8th, 2016. Here are the slides
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI - March 2018 SlidepackRichard Ramsey
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Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
March 2017 Survey Update
Issued 16th April 2018
A detailed analysis of the prospects for the UK economy in 2012 from Geoff Riley at tutor2u. Among the key themes explored by Geoff are:
Are we already back in recession?
A damaging legacy from the slump
Have policies lost their effectiveness?
Macro fragility in a world of external shocks
Richard Ramsey delivered a presentation to the Personal Financial Society's Financial Planning in Focus Conference on November 8th, 2016. Here are the slides
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI - March 2018 SlidepackRichard Ramsey
ย
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
March 2017 Survey Update
Issued 16th April 2018
A detailed analysis of the prospects for the UK economy in 2012 from Geoff Riley at tutor2u. Among the key themes explored by Geoff are:
Are we already back in recession?
A damaging legacy from the slump
Have policies lost their effectiveness?
Macro fragility in a world of external shocks
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres
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There are multiple factors behind Sterlingโs collapse in the past fortnight to decade lows and the question remains whether these factors will reverse any time soon.
At the top of the pyramid of causes for Sterlingโs demise, in my view, is not the UKโs large current account deficit or Bank of England (BoE) policy but the stance on EU membership which Prime Minister Theresa May has adopted.
So while Sterlingโs greater competitiveness may eventually drive FX inflows into the UK and help Sterling to recover, financial markets and investors are likely to continue to take their cue from the British government near-term.
Simply put, if Theresa May continues down of the path of โHard Brexitโ, however ill-defined, Sterling is likely to remain under pressure.
However, history shows that while EU leaders have a tendency to drag their feet over key issues, they are able and willing to eventually find some kind of compromise.
Moreover, Theresa May will be subject to the will of her own Conservative Party โ which on the whole supports membership of the UK or at least a softer form of exit from the EU โ and of the people.
While the BoE would prefer a more stable currency and lower yields, there is probably little than it can (or should) do near-term beyond trying to reassure markets, investors and households.
The saturday economist uk economic outlook march 2016John Ashcroft
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The Saturday Economist : UK Economic Outlook March 2016, Drink with me to days gone by : Service Sector (Leisure Sector) continues to drive output in the UK economy, We expect GDP growth of 2.6% this year slowing to 2.5% in 2017.
Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack November 2018Richard Ramsey
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Slidepack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack November 2018, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Know how China's Economic Slowdown has a significant impact on key economies that have strong trade ties with the country? Download the Aranca special report on China Slowdown here.
The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook December 2015John Ashcroft
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The Saturday Economist, UK Economic Outlook December 2015 is out now. We have lowered our forecasts for growth in 2015 and 2016. Check out over twenty pages of analysis
Curso PSU Matemรกticas
Mas informaciรณn sobre este curso en: http://educagratis.cl/moodle/course/view.php?id=390
Este curso estรก orientado a estudiantes que rendirรกn la PSU y para todos los interesados en aprender los temas que รฉsta tratarรก.
Encontrarรกs contenidos, guรญas de ejercicios y enlaces a pรกginas interactivas para que puedas estudiar y resolver para una mejor preparaciรณn y aprendizaje. Publicaremos ensayos generales y test de evaluaciรณn por mรณdulos. Ademรกs, podrรกs participar de nuestros foros de discusiรณn para obtener ayuda con los ejercicios, del chat para hacer consultas on-line y de un chat para conversar con tus compaรฑeros, de temas de la PSU o de lo que quieras....Encuentra mas cursos en: http://educagratis.cl/moodle/
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres
ย
There are multiple factors behind Sterlingโs collapse in the past fortnight to decade lows and the question remains whether these factors will reverse any time soon.
At the top of the pyramid of causes for Sterlingโs demise, in my view, is not the UKโs large current account deficit or Bank of England (BoE) policy but the stance on EU membership which Prime Minister Theresa May has adopted.
So while Sterlingโs greater competitiveness may eventually drive FX inflows into the UK and help Sterling to recover, financial markets and investors are likely to continue to take their cue from the British government near-term.
Simply put, if Theresa May continues down of the path of โHard Brexitโ, however ill-defined, Sterling is likely to remain under pressure.
However, history shows that while EU leaders have a tendency to drag their feet over key issues, they are able and willing to eventually find some kind of compromise.
Moreover, Theresa May will be subject to the will of her own Conservative Party โ which on the whole supports membership of the UK or at least a softer form of exit from the EU โ and of the people.
While the BoE would prefer a more stable currency and lower yields, there is probably little than it can (or should) do near-term beyond trying to reassure markets, investors and households.
The saturday economist uk economic outlook march 2016John Ashcroft
ย
The Saturday Economist : UK Economic Outlook March 2016, Drink with me to days gone by : Service Sector (Leisure Sector) continues to drive output in the UK economy, We expect GDP growth of 2.6% this year slowing to 2.5% in 2017.
Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack November 2018Richard Ramsey
ย
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack November 2018, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Know how China's Economic Slowdown has a significant impact on key economies that have strong trade ties with the country? Download the Aranca special report on China Slowdown here.
The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook December 2015John Ashcroft
ย
The Saturday Economist, UK Economic Outlook December 2015 is out now. We have lowered our forecasts for growth in 2015 and 2016. Check out over twenty pages of analysis
Curso PSU Matemรกticas
Mas informaciรณn sobre este curso en: http://educagratis.cl/moodle/course/view.php?id=390
Este curso estรก orientado a estudiantes que rendirรกn la PSU y para todos los interesados en aprender los temas que รฉsta tratarรก.
Encontrarรกs contenidos, guรญas de ejercicios y enlaces a pรกginas interactivas para que puedas estudiar y resolver para una mejor preparaciรณn y aprendizaje. Publicaremos ensayos generales y test de evaluaciรณn por mรณdulos. Ademรกs, podrรกs participar de nuestros foros de discusiรณn para obtener ayuda con los ejercicios, del chat para hacer consultas on-line y de un chat para conversar con tus compaรฑeros, de temas de la PSU o de lo que quieras....Encuentra mas cursos en: http://educagratis.cl/moodle/
Big Data Day LA 2016/ NoSQL track - Big Data and Real Estate, Jon Zifcak, CEO...Data Con LA
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The real estate industry is generating terabytes of data, but a very small percentage is being utilized or processed. ZULLOO Inc. is creating a artificial intelligence engine utilizing big data and machine learning. The question is, why aren't more data scientists exploring the real estate industry when it represents 15% of the US GDP, measured in the Trillions?
Likes, Shares, Tweets: The Growing Role of Social Media in Biomedical LiteratureIris Thiele Isip-Tan
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Presentation at the Asia Pacific Association of Medical Journal Editors (APAME) 2015 Convention: Advancing Access to Health Information and Publication: Shifting Paradigms, Trends and Innovations. 26 Aug 2015 Hotel Sofitel, Manila.
Presentation at the annual convention of the Philippine Society of Experimental and Clinical Pharmacology, 6 August 2016 at Angeles University Foundation, Pampanga.
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015Richard Ramsey
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Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, November 2015, including sectoral analysis and analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack, September 2015Richard Ramsey
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Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, September, 2015, including analysis of of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2015, including sectoral analysis and analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack Ulster Bank NI PMI February 2016Richard Ramsey
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Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, February 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack Ulster Bank NI PMI January 2016Richard Ramsey
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Slide pack for the January Ulster Bank NI PMI, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank NI PMI December 2015 SlidepackRichard Ramsey
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Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack, December 2015. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI Slide Pack August 2016Richard Ramsey
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Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, August 2016 including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK regions and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, October 2016, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank NI PMI, May 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slide pack for the Bank NI PMI April 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI, June 2016, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Slide pack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, July 2017, including analysis of global, eurozone, UK, UK regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slide Pack February 2017Richard Ramsey
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Slide pack to accompany the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slidepack, March 2017, including analysis of global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI and Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI report, April 2017, including analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) December 2016Richard Ramsey
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Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) dslidepack. Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
Slidepack for the Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
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Kseniya Leshchenko: Shared development support service model as the way to make small projects with small budgets profitable for the company (UA)
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1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
August 2015 Survey Update
Issued 14th September 2015
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics
2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managersโ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.
3. Global output growth rate remains unchanged with services
expanding but manufacturing output falls to a 28-month low
4. EZ manufacturing & services sector growth accelerates with
retail sectorโs growth easing & construction still contracting
12. Alongside China, the PMIs for the Emerging Markets,
Russia and Brazil are all signalling contraction
13. Australiaโs services & manufacturing sectors signal a
marked improvement in August, but will it last?
14. NI posts its 4th consecutive month of private sector growth
but pace of growth eases & still lags behind the UK & RoI
15. PMI suggests growth in DFPโs private sector composite index during
2014 but recovery stalls in Q1-15 with a modest rebound in Q2 & Q3-15
16. 2014 was the first year in 7 years that business activity,
new orders, employment & export orders all expanded
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders
ExpansionContraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI
17. NI recovery took hold in H2-13, all indicators improved in
H1-14 & eased in H2-14 with a further slowdown in H1-15
NI Private Sector Performance (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006H
22007H
12007H
22008H
12008H
22009H
12009H
22010H
12010H
22011H
12011H
22012H
12012H
22013H
12013H
22014H
12014H
22015H
1
PMI Index
Business Activity New Orders Employment Export Orders
ExpansionContraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
18. NI firms report a pick-up in the pace of job creation but
the growth rates for new orders & business activity slow
19. UK, RoI & NI firms continue to report growing order
books but the pace of expansion has eased
20. Backlogs of work continue to grow amongst RoI & NI firms
with levels of outstanding work amongst UK firms flat
21. Export orders are still struggling and not helped by
the sterling / euro exchange rate
22. PMI signalled a slowdown in the pace of jobs growth in
H2-14 but rebounds in H1-15
23. RoI firms maintain strong rates of jobs growth in August
with NI reporting a marked pick-up in hiring
36. All sectors in NI experienced weaker rates of growth
in H2-14 relative to H1-14 with H1-15 even weaker
NI Private Sector Business Activity (PMI)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2006H
22007H
12007H
22008H
12008H
22009H
12009H
22010H
12010H
22011H
12011H
22012H
12012H
22013H
12013H
22014H
12014H
22015H
1
PMI Index
Manufacturing Services Construction Retail
ExpansionContraction
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
37. NI manufacturing & services firms report an easing in output
growth in Q3 but contraction within construction continues
38. Services & manufacturing firms are still increasing their
staffing levels whilst construction employment is falling
64. Slide 64
Disclaimer
This document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and is
not intended for any other person. It does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service in
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The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication
and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be
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