The document provides an overview and analysis of purchasing managers' index (PMI) survey results for various economies including global, Eurozone, UK, Northern Ireland, and Republic of Ireland for November 2021. It finds that global output and manufacturing output growth accelerated while supply chain disruptions continued. Input cost and output price inflation reached record highs in many economies. Northern Ireland's private sector recovery continued but lagged the UK and Republic of Ireland, with new orders contracting for the third month.

1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
November 2021 Survey Update
Issued 13th December 2021
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

3. November 2021 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

4. • Global output quickens to a 4-mth high of 54.8
• Global input costs accelerate at fastest pace since Jul-08
• Global services output growth remains unchanged at 55.6 but
services input costs rising at fastest pace since Jul-08
• Global manufacturing output growth quickens to a 4-mth high of 52.6
but suppliers’ delivery times are still lengthening at near record rates
• Russia’s composite remains in contraction while India’s hits 9-yr high
• The EZ’s big-4 economies all post faster growth rates in November
• EZ & Japan post faster growth rates in November while the pace of
growth eases for the US & China
• UK composite PMI remains broadly unchanged at 57.4 but input cost
inflation (83.4) & output price inflation (64.2) hit record highs
• RoI composite eases to 59.3 with record output price inflation
November 2021 Global PMIs – highlights

5. • Output quickens from 52.2 to 52.9 due to retail sector
• New orders fall (49.8) for the 3rd month running
• Service sector output slows to an 8-mth low with new orders flat
• Retail & construction slump in new orders continues
• Employment growth continues at a rapid rate (55.5) with all 4
sectors increasing staffing levels
• All four sectors are optimistic for future output rises
• Export orders (42.2) fall for 34th successive month
• Input cost inflation (89.5) just shy of October’s record high
• Output prices (77.8) hits a record high
• Services firms’ costs (86.8) & prices charged rising at record rates
• Suppliers’ delivery times still lengthening at a rapid rate (27.3)
November 2021 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

6. Global output growth quickens from recent 7-mth low

7. Global services & manufacturing output growth quickens

8. Supply chain disruption is getting worse not better

9. Japan & the Eurozone post faster rates of growth in
November while the US & China see a loss of momentum

10. Developed Markets PMI hits 55.8 while Emerging
Markets eases 52.5

11. Russia remains in contraction, Brazil & China’s growth
rates slow while India’s PMI approaches a 9-year high

12. Chinese composite PMI falls to a 3-mth low due to
services while manufacturing output hits a 4-mth high

13. All economies bar the RoI post slower rates of growth
in November

14. Manufacturing, services & construction output growth
accelerates with construction at a 45-mth high

15. Spain, Ireland & the UK top the table for service sector
growth with Russia the only economy in contraction

16. Eurozone & US manufacturing output growth remains
strong with Japan’s rate of expansion accelerating

17. Developed Markets continues to outperform
Emerging Markets on the growth front

18. UK & NI economies continue to lag behind the RoI

19. 2020 saw business conditions deteriorate at record rates

20. Business conditions post slower rates of growth (or
faster rates of contraction) in Q4* bar employment

21. NI firms report a rise in output & employment in November
but new orders post a third month of contraction

22. Growth in order books declines in NI and contrasts with
strong rates of growth in the UK and the RoI

23. NI backlogs rising again but lagging behind the UK
and RoI

24. NI export orders slump continues

25. Rates of employment growth ease in November

26. PMI signals rapid private sector jobs growth from Q2

27. Input cost & output price inflation accelerating at
record rates

28. Regional
Comparisons

29. All regions bar the North East post output growth in
November

30. NI’s private sector recovery lags the UK average

31. NI posts the slowest rate of output growth over the
last 12-mths followed by the North East

32. NI is not the least optimistic / most pessimistic region
about the future for the first time since the pandemic

33. All regions post rises in employment levels in November

34. All regions recorded employment growth during the 3
months to November led by London

35. All regions post job gains over the last 12 months

36. Sectoral
Comparisons

37. UK services output growth slows but construction &
services output growth accelerates

38. RoI’s services, manufacturing & construction sectors
report an easing in output growth rates

39. Manufacturing & services post output growth in
Jan-Nov 2021

40. Growth slows in Q4* but retail returns to growth but
construction remains in contraction

41. Manufacturing posts strong rates of growth with services
activity slowing & construction output contracting

42. Rate of job creation within manufacturing & services
accelerates but construction posts a contraction

43. Growth in NI backlogs of work increases for all sectors
bar construction

44. Input cost inflation at or close to record highs across
all sectors

45. Firms raising their prices at record rates led by retail

46. NI manufacturers report strong rates of growth in
output, orders and employment

47. NI & UK manufacturing output growth lagging behind
the Republic of Ireland

48. NI manufacturing output growth remains above
long-term average

49. Order books are still expanding at robust rates but
UK firms’ rate of growth is slowing fast

50. NI manufacturers mid-table vis-à-vis its European peers

51. NI & UK manufacturers reporting faster rates of
growth in input cost inflation than the Global PMI

52. NI, RoI & UK manufacturers still report a
lengthening in supplier delivery times

53. Manufacturing firms’ output prices rising at record rates

54. NI manufacturers outperforming the UK and RoI in
terms of employment growth

55. NI services sector in expansion mode but rates of
growth in output is slowing while orders are falling

56. NI’s services sector recovery continues but still lags
behind the UK and RoI

57. NI’s services sector activity remains below its
pre-downturn long-term average

58. UK & RoI services firms report new orders growth
while NI records three successive months of decline

59. Service sector experiencing a squeeze on profit margins
with input cost inflation accelerating at a record rate

60. All economies report robust rates of growth in job
creation within the services sector

61. Retail sales & employment growth picking-up but
order books are still shrinking

62. Retailers raising prices at a record rate with input cost
inflation at elevated levels

63. In the 3 months to November, NI’s construction sector
posted declines in output, orders & employment

64. Construction firms’ profit margins being severely
squeezed in the face of accelerating input cost inflation

65. NI’s construction recovery lagging behind the UK & RoI

66. UK orders growth continues but slowing with RoI
posting strong growth too. NI orders still in decline

67. Supply chain disruption (lengthening delivery times)
remains a major problem for NI, UK & RoI construction firms

68. NI construction firms oscillating between optimism
and pessimism

69. UK commercial & civil engineering activity report
faster rates of growth in November

70. Construction sector’s availability of sub-contractors
falling with rates charged rising at a rapid rate

71. Optimism amongst UK construction remains slightly
above its long-term average

72. Slowdown in commercial activity but housing activity
accelerates while engineering activity posts a rebound

73. Availability of sub-contractors continues to decrease as
rates charged by subcontractors hits a record high

74. Optimism amongst RoI construction firms remains
well above its long-term average

75. Slide 75
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