Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector March 2017 Survey Update Issued 16th April 2018

1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
March 2017 Survey Update
Issued 16th
April 2018
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

3. • Global output eases to a 16-mth high of 53.3
• Growth eases in China, Japan, the US & the Eurozone
• US PMI ease from a 13-mth high (55.8) to 54.2
• China composite PMI eases from 53.3 to 51.8 – a 4-mth low
• Emerging Markets PMI eases to a 4-mth low of 52.3
• Developed Markets PMI slips to a 18-mth low of 53.6
• ‘Beast from the East’ contributes to slowdown across Europe
• EZ composite PMI eases from 57.1 to 55.2 – a 14-mth low
• Germany composite slips to an 8-mth low of 55.1 France hits a 7-
mth low of 56.3, Spain hits a 3-mth low of 55.8
• Italian composite PMI slips from 56.0 to 53.5 – 14-mth low
• Republic of Ireland composite eases to a 57-mth low of 53.8
• UK composite PMI slows to a 20-mth of 52.1
• East Midlands (55.2) & Wales (55.0) post the fastest rates of
growth in output in March & the North East the weakest (48.5)
March 2018 Global PMIs – Key highlights

4. • Business growth eases to a 8-mth low of 53.2 but Q1 still marks
the fastest rate of growth since Q3 2014
• NI firms remain the least optimistic of UK regions for year ahead
• 38th successive month of private sector jobs growth (53.0)
• Private sector order books expand at weakest pace in 17 months
• All sectors saw slower rates of output growth
• Manufacturing output growth eased to a 4-mth low of 54.0
• Manufacturing new orders slowed to a 14-mth low of 51.3
• Service sector activity slowed markedly to a 17-mth low of 51.4
• Export orders accelerated from 53.9 to 55.2
• Retailers report a significant easing in new orders growth
• All sectors bar retail saw their inflationary pressures ease
• Input & output cost inflation eased but remain elevated
• Construction sector orders fell (49.4) for the first time in 7 mths
March 2018 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

5. Global output growth eases to a 16-month low

6. Growth moderates in the Eurozone (14-mth low),
China, Japan (17-mth low), US & UK (20-mth low)

7. Developed Markets PMI eases to an 18-month low

8. Emerging Markets’ growth rate eases due to Russia,
Brazil & China

9. Chinese PMIs ease to 4-month lows in March

10. Slowdown in March evident across Europe

11. All Eurozone sectors report a marked easing in
output growth in March

12. Eurozone PMI suggests another strong quarter of EZ
economic growth in Q1 2018

13. France, Spain & the Republic of Ireland post the fastest
rates of services growth in March. NI / UK lagging

14. EZ, US & Japanese manufacturing activity continues
to ease from their recent highs

15. Developed & Emerging Markets’ PMIs continue to ease
from their recent multi-year highs

16. Snowdown! ‘Beast from the East’ causes a slowdown –
RoI 57-mth low, UK 20-mth low & NI 8-mth low

17. PMI more positive than Composite Index. Latter includes hefty
falls in manufacturing output due to closure of JTI plant.

18. Output, orders & employment growth hit a 3-yr high
in 2017. Exports in line with 2016’s 12-yr high

19. Growth rates for output & exports accelerated in Q1
relative to Q4. Jobs growth & new orders growth eases

20. NI firms report an easing in the pace of expansion in
activity, new orders but job creation accelerates

21. UK new orders growth accelerates from subdued
levels. While NI orders growth slows markedly

22. UK, NI & RoI firms continue to report rising backlogs of
work though the rate of growth in NI firms is slowing

23. NI export orders growth accelerates in March

24. NI’s rate of employment growth picks up in March
while the pace of job creation slows in the UK & RoI

25. NI’s firms in hiring mode in H2 2017 with PMI signalling
an acceleration in jobs growth in Q4 but easing in Q1-
18

26. Squeeze on profit margins intensifies

27. Regional
Comparisons

28. East Midlands & Wales top the regional growth table with
Scotland & the North East (contracting) at the bottom

29. East Midlands & NI top the growth table for Q1 with
Scotland at the bottom

30. The East Midlands and the North West record the
fastest rates of growth over the last year

31. NI’s pace of job creation accelerates above the UK
average but remains below four other regions

32. NI’s employment growth rate outperforming six UK
regions over the last 3 months

33. Scotland & the North East have reported the weakest
rates of jobs growth over the last year. NI in line with UK

34. Sectoral
Comparisons

35. UK manufacturing output rebounds while
construction & services output slump to 20-month
lows

36. PMI suggests a loss of momentum in Q1 2018 with
the cold weather expected to add to the slowdown

37. RoI construction and manufacturing sectors report a
marked slowdown in output growth in March

38. Manufacturing & construction sectors post faster
rates of growth in activity in Q1 versus Q4

39. All sectors remain in expansion mode

40. Pace of hiring eases across sectors for manufacturing
& construction in Q1 and markedly for services

41. Inflationary pressures remain intense across all
sectors, particularly retail

42. NI’s manufacturing firms reporting slower rates of
growth in output, employment & new orders

43. Manufacturing output growth slows notably amongst
RoI firms & to a lesser degree amongst NI & UK firms

44. NI manufacturing output growth (last 3 months)
remains above its pre-downturn long-term average

45. UK, NI & RoI manufacturing firms all report a marked
easing in new orders growth

46. All economies report an easing in manufacturing
output growth. RoI slips to a 19-month low

47. £ weakness exacerbated input cost inflation. NI/UK
cost pressures easing but still well above elsewhere

48. Input cost inflationary pressures ease slightly

49. NI manufacturing firms report an easing in the pace of
job creation. Both NI & RoI lag behind the UK

50. NI’s services sector reports a slowdown in growth
rates of key indicators

51. NI & RoI continue to enjoy strong rates of growth (albeit
slowing) in services sector output & above UK rate

52. The growth rate in NI’s services sector falls further
below its pre-downturn long-term average

53. New orders growth eases for NI service sector firms
and remains well above the UK’s growth rate

54. Input cost inflation accelerates putting a squeeze on
service sector profit margins

55. Pace of hiring slows significantly amongst NI & RoI
service sector firms but UK jobs growth holds up

56. Retail sales & orders slowing at a rapid rate but jobs
growth picks up

57. NI retailers report steep inflationary cost pressures
which continue to squeeze profit margins

58. NI’s construction firms remain in expansion mode in
Q1 albeit the pace of growth slows

59. Inflationary pressures intensifying amongst NI
construction firms

60. RoI firms report continued robust rates of growth
while NI & UK firms post a notable slowdown

61. UK firms new orders growth falls in Q1 while NI’s
construction sector report an easing in orders growth

62. UK housebuilding records modest growth while civil
engineering hits a 5-year low & commercial contracting

63. Construction sector still reporting a shortage of
sub-contractors with rates charged rising

64. Optimism amongst UK construction firms rising but
remains below its long-run average

65. Pick-up in RoI engineering activity as commercial
activity slows

66. RoI’s construction firms still reporting a decline in the
availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay

67. RoI construction firms still remain very optimistic
about 2018 & well above the long-term average

68. Slide 68
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