Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector.

1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
June 2020 Survey Update
Issued 13th July 2020
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

3. June 2020 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

4. • Rates of decline in output (42.6) & orders (38.7) ease
• Pace of job losses eases to 40.7 & less marked than UK average
• All sectors saw rates of decline in orders, jobs & output ease
• Export orders still falling at a rapid pace (33.1)
• Services output hits 32.6 with 58% of firms posting a decline
• Manufacturing output rises to 52.5 with 46% of firms posting a rise
• Retail sales close to stabilising (49.4) but input costs rise at their
fastest pace in 33 months. Increased costs linked to PPE
• 8% of manufacturing firms & 9% of service firms increased staff
• 32% of manufacturing firms & 20% of service firms reduced staff
• All sectors expect steep declines in activity in 12 months time
• NI (42.6) & Scotland (37.1) saw the sharpest falls in output
• NI firms remain the most pessimistic UK region for the year ahead
June 2020 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

5. Slump in global output growth continues to ease

6. China remains the only economy posting growth in June

7. Emerging Markets’ & Developed PMIs rebound from
record lows

8. All of the BRICS PMIs improve in June but China
remains the only one above 50 (posting growth)

9. Chinese PMIs recording positive output growth with
services expanding at its fastest pace since April 2010

10. Republic of Ireland (44.3) lagging the Eurozone Big-4

11. All EZ sectors see pace of growth ease again in June
following April’s record rates of decline

12. NI posts the steepest rates of decline in services activity in
June. China is joined by 3 economies in growth territory

13. US manufacturing joins China in positive growth
territory while the EZ & Japan remain in contraction

14. Emerging Markets’ & Developed Markets’ PMIs witness a
further easing in the pace of contraction in June

15. A further easing in the rates of decline in output in June
– NI (42.6), UK (48.3) & RoI (44.4)

16. PMI hits a record low in Q2 with the NI composite economic
index set to follow in due course

17. 2020 has seen business conditions deteriorate at record rates

18. Business conditions deteriorating markedly since Q2 2019

19. Easing in rates of decline in output, orders & jobs

20. NI order books still falling at a rapid rate in June while
the UK & the RoI report modest rates of decline

21. NI firms report a much steeper rate of contraction in
backlogs than its UK & RoI counterparts

22. NI export orders slump continues

23. Pace of decline in jobs continues to ease from April’s
record rates

24. Private sector employment (as of 2nd March) still
increasing but PMI signals big falls in Q1 and Q2

25. Input cost inflationary pressures easing fast

26. Regional
Comparisons

27. Two UK regions return to growth in June with Scotland
posting the fastest rate of decline

28. Scotland posts the fastest rate of decline for all the
UK regions in Q2 just ahead of NI

29. NI posts the fastest rates of output growth decline
over the last 12 months

30. NI is the least optimistic / most pessimistic about the
future than any other UK region

31. All 12 regions posted significant job losses in June

32. NI firms’ job losses less marked than most other regions

33. All regions post job losses over the last 12 months

34. Sectoral
Comparisons

35. UK manufacturing & construction sectors return to output
growth in June with services’ contraction slowing

36. Construction is the first RoI sector to return to
growth in June

37. NI’s private sector ends the decade the way it
began… with all sectors in contraction mode

38. Pace of decline accelerates at record rates in Q2

39. All sectors experience rapids rates of decline in Q2

40. Rate of job losses remains sharp (3mmov.ave) across
all sectors

41. Input cost inflationary pressures easing for all
sectors in Q2

42. All sectors bar retail are cutting prices

43. NI manufacturers reporting an easing in the rate of
decline of orders & output (both >50 in June)

44. NI manufacturing output contracting at a much faster
pace than its counterparts in the UK & RoI in Q2

45. NI manufacturing output contraction eases (on a
three month moving average basis)

46. Contraction in NI manufacturing orders eases in Q2
(growth in June) with the RoI & UK following a similar path

47. NI’s manufacturing output rebounds posting the
first month of growth in 8 months

48. NI manufacturers report an acceleration in input cost
inflation following April’s record low

49. Manufacturing firms’ pricing power slumps squeezing
profitability further

50. NI, UK & RoI manufacturers shedding staff at similar rates

51. NI’s services sector still reporting rates of contraction
not seen pre-COVID-19

52. NI, UK & RoI firms witness an easing in the rates of
decline in May and June

53. NI’s services sector in contraction mode

54. NI services firms see orders slump in Q2 but May &
June monthly data improves from April’s 3.4

55. Service sector experiencing an easing in inflationary
pressures

56. All economies posting sharp rates of decline in
services employment in Q2

57. Retail sales stabilising but orders & jobs still falling
sharply

58. Retailers report a marked acceleration in input cost
inflation (linked to introduction of PPE)

59. NI’s construction firms report a marked deterioration
in business conditions in Q2

60. Inflationary pressures ease significantly

61. NI, UK & RoI construction firms report sharp rates of
decline over the last 3 months with single digits in April

62. All three economies post rapid declines in new orders in Q2

63. Optimism improves slightly in May & June

64. Growth returns in June for all UK sub-sectors

65. Construction sector’s availability of sub-contractors
plunges & rebounds after lockdown restrictions are lifted

66. Optimism amongst UK construction firms slumped in April
matching October 2008’s record low but rises in May & June

67. RoI housing & commercial activity return to growth
in June after record rates of decline

68. Lifting lockdown restrictions sees a rise in availability
of sub-contractors

69. RoI construction firms’ pessimism eases from
April’s 12-year low with optimism returning in June

70. Slide 70
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