by Richard Ramsey, Chief Economist, Ulster Bank NI

1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
September 2021 Survey Update
Issued 11th October 2021
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

3. September 2021 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

4. • Global composite PMI rises from a 7-mth low of 52.5 to 53.0
• Global services output accelerates from 52.8 to 53.4
• Emerging markets’ composite PMI returns to growth (52.3)
• Chinese composite PMI rebounds from 14-mth low of 47.2 to 51.4
• Significant difference between Developed Markets (57.1) and
Emerging Markets (50.8) manufacturing PMIs
• Global manufacturing input cost (71.2) & output price (60.9) inflation
remains close to recent highs
• Global manufacturing supplier deliver times continue to lengthen at
near record rates (36.5)
• UK composite PMI slows to a 7-mth low of 54.7
• RoI composite PMI eases to a 5-mth low of 61.5
September 2021 Global PMIs – highlights

5. • Output and employment growth accelerate to 54.0 & 54.9
• New orders fall (49.1) for the first time in 6 months
• Manufacturing & services remain in expansion mode for business
activity while retail & construction continue to contract
• Manufacturing employment rises at 2nd-fastest pace on record
• Manufacturing & services firms optimistic for future output rises
• Retail & construction are pessimistic about the year ahead
• Export orders (45.0) fall for 32nd successive month
• Input cost inflation (86.7) hits a record high
• Output prices (74.1) hits a record high
• Retail (90.0) & services firms (61.6) raising prices at record rates
• Backlogs (49.1) fall for the first time in 6 months
• Suppliers’ delivery times still lengthening at a rapid rate (24.3)
September 2021 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

6. Global output growth quickens from 7-mth low

7. Global services and manufacturing output growth
quickens from its recent lows

8. EZ & US PMIs slow from recent record highs with
China returning to growth & Japan contracting

9. Developed Markets PMI hits 53.8 – a 7-mth low while
Emerging Markets returns to growth (52.3)

10. Russia & China return to growth with all BRICs in
expansion mode

11. Chinese composite returns to growth (51.4) due to
services (53.4) while manufacturing (49.0) still contracting

12. Slowdown in growth rates across the board

13. Manufacturing & services output growth eases from
recent highs while construction remains flat

14. Ireland & Spain top the table for service sector growth with
Australia & Japan at the bottom in contraction mode

15. Eurozone & US manufacturing output growth may have
eased from recent highs but remains very strong

16. Developed Markets’ eases to a 7-mth low while
Emerging Markets’ posts a very modest growth rate

17. UK & NI economies continue to lag behind the RoI

18. 2020 saw business conditions deteriorate at record rates

19. Business conditions post slower rates of growth in Q3

20. NI firms report a rise in output & employment in
September but new orders post a contraction

21. Growth in order books slowing fast amongst NI & UK firms
with NI posting its first fall in 6 months

22. NI backlogs fall following record rise in recent months
while RoI and the UK still report rising backlogs

23. NI export orders slump continues

24. NI’s rate of employment growth accelerates in September

25. Private sector employment growing rapidly in Q2 & Q3

26. Input cost & output price inflation accelerating at
record rates

27. Regional
Comparisons

28. All UK regions posted output growth in September

29. NI’s private sector recovery lags the rest of the UK

30. NI posts the slowest rate of output contraction over
the last 12-mths followed by Scotland

31. NI remains the least optimistic / most pessimistic
about the future than any other UK region

32. All regions post rises in employment levels in September

33. All regions recorded employment growth in Q3 2021

34. All regions post job gains over the last 12 months bar
the North East

35. Sectoral
Comparisons

36. UK manufacturing and construction output growth
eases to 7 & 8 month lows respectively

37. RoI’s services sector posts strong growth in September
with slowdown in construction & manufacturing output

38. Manufacturing & services post output growth in
Jan-Sep 2021

39. Growth slows in Q3 with construction & retail
contracting

40. Manufacturing & services post strong rates of growth
while construction remains in contraction territory

41. Rate of manufacturing job creation accelerates in Q3
but construction posts a contraction

42. Growth in backlogs of work eases gain with construction
and retail posting declines

43. Input cost inflation accelerating at record rates

44. Firms raising their prices at record rates led by retail

45. NI manufacturers report strong rates of growth in
output, orders and employment

46. All 3 economies post strong rates of manufacturing
output growth albeit pace of expansion is slowing

47. NI manufacturing output growth remains above
long-term average

48. Order books are expanding at a rapid pace too

49. NI manufacturers in line with its European peers

50. NI & UK manufacturers reporting faster rates of
growth in input cost inflation than the Global PMI

51. Manufacturing firms’ input costs rising at near record rates

52. NI, UK & RoI manufacturers all experience rapid rates of
employment growth

53. NI services sector in expansion mode with output /
orders and employment all increasing at robust rates

54. NI’s services sector recovery continues but still lags
behind the UK and RoI

55. NI’s services sector activity remains around
pre-downturn long-term average

56. All three economies report new orders growth albeit
the pace of expansion for NI & UK is slowing fast

57. Service sector experiencing a squeeze on profit margins
with input cost inflation accelerating at a record rate

58. All economies report robust rates of growth in job
creation within the services sector

59. Retail sales, orders & employment growth all decline

60. Retailers raising prices at a record rate with input cost
inflation at elevated levels

61. In the 3 months to September, NI’s construction sector
posted declines in output, orders & employment

62. Construction firms’ profit margins being severely
squeezed in the face of accelerating input cost inflation

63. NI’s construction recovery lagging behind the UK & RoI

64. UK construction orders growth continues with RoI
posting strong growth too. NI orders still in decline

65. NI construction firms oscillating between optimism
and pessimism

66. All aspects of UK construction reporting slower
rates of growth in September

67. Construction sector’s availability of sub-contractors
falls with rates charged rising at a record rate

68. Optimism amongst UK construction remains above
long-term average

69. Engineering activity contracting at a quickening rate
with a slower rate of growth with housing

70. Availability of sub-contractors continues to decrease as
rates charged by subcontractors close to record highs

71. Optimism amongst RoI construction firms remains
well above its long-term average

72. Slide 72
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