Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector

1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
April 2021 Survey Update
Issued 10th May 2021
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

3. April 2021 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

4. • Global composite PMI accelerates to 56.3 – an 11-yr high
• Global employment index hits a 14-year high of 53.1
• Global services activity rises at its fastest pace (56.6) since Jul-07
• Developed Markets PMI (58.2) approaches a 14-yr high
• Emerging Markets’ PMI (53.5) quickens to a 4-mth high
• Global input cost inflation hits its highest reading (64.9) since Jul-08
while output prices hit a new series high of 56.9
• Developed Markets’ manufacturing PMI hits a new record high of 59.3
• US Composite PMI (63.5) hits a new series high
• Eurozone composite PMI hits a 9-mth high of 53.8 while the EZ’s
manufacturing PMI hits a new record high of 62.9
• UK manufacturing PMI approaches a 27-year high while composite PMI
hits its highest reading (60.8) since Oct-13
• RoI manufacturing PMI hits a record high of 60.8 with composite PMI at
an 8-mth high of 54.1
April 2021 Global PMIs – highlights

5. • Output returns to growth (55.5) for the first time in 7 months and
expands at the fastest pace in 33 months
• All sectors bar construction saw an expansion in output in April
• Firms’ optimism for future output hits a 14-mth high (61.0)
• New orders rise (53.5) for the first time in 9 months
• Retail records its fastest rise in orders (65.7) in 86 months
• But slump in export orders (39.1) continues
• Employment hits a 40-mth high of 54.2 with services reporting the
fastest increase in employment since August 2007
• Input cost inflation increases to a record high (79.3)
• Firms raising prices at their fastest rate (69.6) since survey began
• Construction & retail post record rates of input / output inflation
• Backlogs (52.9) rise for the first time since July 2018
• Manufacturing & construction backlogs rise at a record rate
April 2021 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

6. Manufacturing & services output growth rates hit
highest readings since Feb-11 & Jul-07 respectively

7. All of the main composites improve in April with Japan
joining the US, China & the Eurozone in expansion

8. Developed Markets PMI hits 58.2 its highest since Jun-07
while Emerging Markets’ quickens to a 4-mth high

9. Brazil’s rate of contraction accelerates while India &
Russia see growth rates ease.

10. Chinese composite, manufacturing & services PMIs
see their respective growth rates hit 4-mth highs

11. Germany, Ireland & Spain outperforming France & Italy

12. Manufacturing output growth accelerates with
services and construction crossing the 50.0 threshold

13. US & the UK top the table for service sector growth while
Italy and Brazil are at the bottom

14. Eurozone hits a fresh record high, only the US fails to
see its growth rate accelerate

15. Developed Markets’ hits a new record high (59.3)
while Emerging Markets’ picks up from a 9-mth low

16. For the first time since August 2020 all three
economies report an expansion in business activity

17. 2020 has seen business conditions deteriorate at record rates

18. Business conditions improve in Q2* with most
indicators recording growth

19. NI firms report a rise in output, orders & employment
in April

20. Order books growing across all three economies

21. Backlogs rise in Northern Ireland for the first time
since July 2018

22. NI export orders slump continues

23. All three economies report a pick-up in jobs growth

24. Private sector employment growing again in Q2-21*

25. Input cost inflationary pressures accelerating with
prices charged following the same trend

26. Regional
Comparisons

27. All UK regions posted output growth in April

28. Northern Ireland was the only region to post a
contraction in the three months to April

29. Scotland posts the fastest rate of output contraction
over the last 12-mths followed by NI & Wales

30. NI remains the least optimistic / most pessimistic
about the future than any other UK region

31. 11 regions post rises in employment levels in March

32. The devolved regions remain at the bottom of the
regional league table for employment growth

33. All regions post job losses over the last 12 months led
by Wales & London

34. Sectoral
Comparisons

35. All 3 UK sectors report robust rates of output growth

36. RoI’s manufacturing & services output growth rate
quickens while construction’s decline eases sharply

37. NI’s private sector starts the new decade the way it
ended the last one…with all sectors in contraction

38. All sectors bar construction post growth in Q2*

39. Manufacturing crosses the expansion threshold on a
three month average basis but contraction elsewhere

40. Rate of job losses slows in Q1 (3mmov.ave) with
manufacturing & services posting growth in April

41. Manufacturing & construction post record rises in backlogs

42. Input cost inflation accelerating at record rates

43. Firms raising their prices at record rates led by retail

44. NI manufacturers report a return to growth in output
and employment

45. Strong growth in April pushes NI manufacturing
output (3 month average) above 50.0

46. NI manufacturing output returns to growth

47. All 3 economies post a return to manufacturing output
growth in the three months to April led by the UK

48. NI manufacturers catching up with their EU peers

49. NI & UK manufacturers reporting faster rates of
growth in input cost inflation than the Global PMI

50. Manufacturing firms’ passing on input costs at a record rate

51. NI manufacturers join RoI & UK in experiencing
employment growth

52. NI services sector on the turn with employment
increasing and output / orders set to follow

53. NI’s services sector recovery continues to lag behind
the UK and RoI

54. NI’s services sector returns to growth in April but 3
month moving average is still posting significant decline

55. NI’s service sector order books still hit by lockdown
restrictions and reduced demand

56. Service sector experiencing a squeeze on profit
margins with input cost inflation accelerating

57. All economies report a marked pick-up in job creation
within the services sector

58. Retail sales, orders & employment all rise in April

59. Retailers increasing prices to cover cost inflation

60. Over the 3 months to April, NI’s construction sector
has posted declines in output, orders & employment

61. Construction firms’ profit margins being severely
squeezed in the face of accelerating input cost inflation

62. RoI & NI construction output diverging with the UK

63. UK construction orders growth continues while the
RoI and NI continue to post steep declines in orders

64. NI construction firms remain significantly less
optimistic than their UK and NI counterparts

65. All aspects of UK construction reporting robust
rates of growth in April

66. Construction sector’s availability of sub-contractors
falls with rates charged moving sharply higher

67. Optimism amongst UK construction firms eases in
April but remains well above long-term average

68. Housing returns to growth but Civil Engineering &
Commercial continue to post significant contractions

69. Availability of sub-contractors continues to decrease
as rates charged by subcontractors accelerates

70. Optimism amongst RoI construction firms remains
well above its long-term average

71. Slide 71
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