Richard Ramsey, Chief Economist at Ulster Bank, presented an economic outlook highlighting recent improvements such as a decline in unemployment to a six-year low of 5.7% and a rebound in housing starts. However, Northern Ireland's economic recovery appears to lag behind the rest of the UK and ROI, with challenges in the private sector evidenced by slowing growth rates and inflation concerns. Overall, while certain sectors are experiencing growth, significant disparities remain, particularly in youth unemployment and earnings.

1. Causeway Chamber of Commerce
NI Economic Outlook
30th April 2015
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
www.ulstereconomix.com
@UB_Economics

2. Global output growth at a 6-month high in March
Global Output - PMI
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Source: Markit Economics
ExpansionContraction

3. Slide 3
Unresolved problems in the Eurozone continue to rumble on

4. Slide 4
Inflation no longer a problem – Disinflation / Deflation?
Annual Consumer Price Inflation (HICP)
0.0
-0.3
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
% Y/Y
EZ UK RoI US*
* US is CPI

5. Slide 5
Disinflation / deflation = interest rates lower for longer
UK Interest Rates
(weekly)
1.41%
1.75%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Apr-00 Oct-02 Apr-05 Oct-07 Apr-10 Oct-12 Apr-15
%
5yr 10yr Base
Rise in swap rates
preceeds base rate hikes
Source: Bloomberg

6. Unemployment fell to a 6-year low of 5.7% (Q4)
Employee jobs +1.9% y/y (Full-time +1.7%)
Residential property transactions +22% y/y
FTB mortgage activity at an 8-year high
Housing starts rebound from 36-year low
New car sales +9% y/y
Estimated economic growth (GVA) 2.0% (in real terms)
2014 NI economic performance highlights

7. Slide 7
Private sector slowdown since Q4-14 with NI’s recovery
lagging behind the UK and the RoI
Private Sector Business Activity - PMIs
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
NI UK RoI
Source: Markit & Ulster Bank NI PMI
50 = threshold between expansion / contraction
ExpansionContraction
**PMI Surveys Exclude Agriculture & Public Sector**

8. Slide 8
NI & Scotland lagging behind the other UK regions
Output / Business Activity
Q1 2015
50 = No change
60.2
49
57.5
40
45
50
55
60
65
Lon WM Wal UK SE Y&H SW NW East EM NE Scot NI RoI
PMI Index
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionContraction

9. Slide 9
Growth rates in new business & job creation have eased
NI Private Sector Activity
Monthly
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
New Business Employment
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionContraction

10. Slide 10
NI firms reporting disinflation in costs but deflation with prices
NI Private Sector Profit Squeeze
3 Month Moving Average
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Output Prices Input Prices No Change
InflationDeflation
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
Profits
squeeze
Price of goods
& services

11. Slide 11
Slowdown has been evident across all sectors
Northern Ireland Private Sector Output
3 month moving average
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Manufacturing Services Construction
Source: Markit Economics &
Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionContraction

12. Construction sector turning the corner in terms of output…
Northern Ireland Construction Output
43%
below peak
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000 Q4 2004 Q2 2007 Q4 2011 Q2 2014 Q4
Index 2011 = 100
Source: DFP Construction Bulletin

13. …but not in terms of employment
NI Sector Recoveries in Employee Jobs
Pre-Recession Peaks Indexed = 100
1% above peak
5% below
peak
37% below
peak
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Peak 1 year 2yrs 3yrs 4yrs 5yrs 6yrs 7yrs
Time Since Pre-Recession Peak
Index
Total Services Manufacturing
Construction Pre-Recession Peak
Source: DFP & UB Calculations

14. Jobs recovery continues - 70% of jobs lost (+28k) recouped in < 3yrs
Annual Growth in N.Ireland Employee Jobs
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
%
FT PT Total
Source: ONS & DFP

15. Slide 15
Claimant count has fallen for 27 months in a row
NI Unemployment Claimant Count Levels
45,200
123,100
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Mar-71 Jul-78 Nov-85 Mar-93 Jul-00 Nov-07 Mar-15
Source: DFP
Dec 2012
64,800
Record Low
Aug 07 23,500
Good Friday
Agreement
signed April 1998
57,900

16. Slide 16
Unemployment recently hit a 6-year low
Unemployment Rate
5.6
10.1
6.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Feb-97 Feb-00 Feb-03 Feb-06 Feb-09 Feb-12 Feb-15
%
UK RoI NI
Source: ONS ILO Unemployment Rate & RoI Live Register

17. Youth unemployment still stubbornly high
Youth Unemployment Rate (18-24yrs)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Feb-95 Feb-99 Feb-03 Feb-07 Feb-11 Feb-15
%
Source: ONS LFS
GFA signed

18. Younger generation haven’t experienced the jobs recovery that
older generations have
NI Employment Change by Age
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
18-24yrs 25-49yrs >50yrs
% Y/Y 7-year % Change
Source: LFS February - April 2015

19. Slide 19
The younger generation has experienced the sharpest
decline in earnings
% Change in N.Ireland Median Annual Earnings
Cumulative change in real terms 2008-2014*
-13.7%
-9.1%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Age 18-21 Age 22-29 Age 30-39 Age 40-49 Age 50-59 Age 60+ All
All Employees (Full-Time & Part-Time) Full-Time
Source: DFP ASHE & ONS, * April each year

20. Slide 20
Driving test downturn appears to have turned a corner
N.Ireland Private Car Driving Tests Conducted
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: DVA

21. Slide 21
New car sales growth stutters following 2 years of growth
N.Ireland New Car Registrations Annual % Growth
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015*
Y/Y
VAT cut to 15% &
'Cash for Clunkers'
Source: SMMT, *Figures for Q1 2015

22. Cost of living crisis narrative has disappeared …for now at least
UK Average Weekly Earnings* & CPI Inflation
Annual % Change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Mar-02 May-04 Jul-06 Sep-08 Nov-10 Jan-13 Mar-15
%
Average Weekly Earnings CPI Inflation MPC Target
Income
squeeze'NICE'
Decade
Source: ONS * Excluding bonuses

23. Slide 23
Food & petrol prices falling at a record rate
UK Food Price Inflation (CPI)
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
Y/Y
Source: ONS, * March 2015

24. Slide 24
Energy & petrol prices falling too
UK Energy & Fuel (CPI)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
20142015*
Y/Y
Electricity Gas & Other Fuels Transport Fuels & Lubricants
Source: ONS, * March 2015

25. Slide 25
Until recently petrol prices have been falling too
UK Fuel Prices - Pence per litre
(Weekly)
113p
Apr-15
106.3p
Feb-15
131.1p
Jul-14
129.7p
141.8p
Apr-12
85.4p
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Apr-04 Feb-06 Dec-07 Oct-09 Aug-11 Jun-13 Apr-15
Pence per litre
Source: DECC

26. Slide 26
House prices have been on the rise – up 8% y/y in Q4 2014
NI Residential Property Price Index
Quarterly & Year-on-Year Growth Rates
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2005 Q4 2007 Q2 2008 Q4 2010 Q2 2011 Q4 2013 Q2 2014 Q4
Q/Q
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Y/Y
Q/Q Left Hand Axis Y/Y Right Hand Axis
Source: DFP RPPI

27. Slide 27
Housing starts up 14% y/y but coming off a 35 year low
Northern Ireland Housing Starts
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Source: DSD & DFP
36-yr low

28. NI exports more price competitive in US market vis-à-vis last year
Sterling / Dollar Exchange Rate
1.546
1.46
1.71
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2
2.1
Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15
Source: Bloomberg

29. Sterling hits a 7-yr high against the euro
Sterling / Euro Exchange Rate Hits a 7-yr High
1.42
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15
€
Source: Bloomberg

30. Slide 30
Exports – the smaller the firm the bigger the exposure to the
Eurozone
NI Manufacturing Sales made to each destination
2013/14
54.1%
6.0%
44.0%
17.7%
14.8%
4.0%
15.9%
18.8%
30.1%
58.1%
25.5%
5.0%
10.1%
8.2%
8.0%
4.4%
8.1%
23.7%
6.6%
36.9%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Small Medium Large SMEs
NI RoI GB Rest of EU RoW
Island of
Ireland
Exposure
71.8%
Island of
Ireland
Exposure
51.7%
Island of
Ireland
Exposure
10.0%
Island of
Ireland
Exposure
59.9%

31. Exchange rate now a headwind for retail too
Northern Ireland PMI
20
30
40
50
60
70
Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-15
Retail Activity Export Orders (All Sectors) No Change
Source: Markit Economics & Ulster Bank NI PMI
ExpansionContraction

32. NI economy faces significant challenges
Source: The Independent 4th December 2014

33. GE a speed camera for pace of austerity

34. Slide 34
Plenty of scope for political surprises in 2015
Source:
The Economist
Brexit
£ / €
Corp Tax
Rate
Up or
down?

35. 35
Economist update – Republic of Ireland & Northern Ireland – April 2015
GDP Growth
y/y %
Personal
Consumption y/y
%
House Price
Growth
y/y %
Unemployment
Rate, % of the
Labour Force
Employment
Growth
y/y %
Construction PMI
HICP Inflation y/y
%
2013 0.2 -0.8 2.1 13.1 2.4 49.3* 0.5
2014 4.8 1.2 12.9 11.3 1.8 61.1* 0.3
2015f 3.9 2.4 9.7 9.8 2.1 52.9** 0.2
2016f 3.6 2.3 5.3 8.9 2.2 1.5
Republic of Ireland
Northern Ireland
GVA Growth
y/y %
House Price
Growth
y/y %
Unemployment
Rate, % of the
Labour Force
Employment
Growth
y/y %
Construction PMI
HICP Inflation y/y
%
2013 -0.2 -2.4 7.6 1.2 53.4* 2.0
2014 2.0 7.3 6.4 1.9 57.3* 0.5
2015f 1.8 8.0 6.0 1.1 50.2** 0.2
2016f 1.1 5.0 6.2 0.5 1.2
Note: Figures above relate to the average annual percentage change unless stated otherwise
* Average Construction PMI Headline Activity reading for the year
** Latest Construction PMI Headline Activity reading for March 2015
Note: Figures above relate to the average annual percentage change
GVA growth for 2014 is an estimate
* Average NI PMI Headline Activity reading for the year
* Latest NI PMI Headline Activity reading for March 2015

36. Slide 36Slide 36
CONTACT DETAILS
Our new blog is available at www.ulstereconomix.com
Please send us a mail at:
email: richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter: @UB_Economics

37. Slide 37
Disclaimer
This document is issued for information purposes only for clients of Ulster Bank Group who are eligible
counterparties or professional customers, and does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any
instrument or to provide any service in any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank
and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or engage in transactions in any of the
instruments mentioned.
The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our
judgement at time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein
should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be construed as such. This publication provides only a
brief review of the complex issues discussed and readers should not rely on information contained here without
seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with
respect to the information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information.
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivates can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on
the terms of the particular transaction and your circumstances. In the event the market has moved against the
transaction you have undertaken, you may incur substantial costs if you wish to close out your position.
Ulster Bank Limited Registered Number: R733 Northern Ireland. Registered Office: 11-16 Donegall Square East,
Belfast BT1 5UB.Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Member of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group.
Calls may be recorded.