www.UlsterEconomix.com

1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
April 2019 Survey Update
Issued 13th
May 2019
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

3. • Global output growth slips to a 3-mth low of 52.1 due to manufacturing
• Growth accelerates in Japan, Germany and the UK
• Chinese composite PMI eases back from March’s 9-mth high to 52.7
• Growth slows in China, India, US, EZ, Brazil, Russia, Spain & Italy
• US composite PMI slows to a 25-mth low of 53.0
• Developed Markets composite PMI eases to a 31-month low
• 9 out of 30 countries now in manufacturing downturns (incl. Germany,
Canada, Italy, Poland, Malaysia, Turkey & the Czech Republic)
• Global manufacturing output broadly stagnated & lowest since Jun-16
• Global manufacturing export orders fall for 8th
month in a row
• EZ composite slows marginally to 51.5. Spain & Italy slowed with Italy
contracting. France flat (50.1) but Germany improved to 52.2.
• Ireland slipped to a 71-mth low for output & orders (both 52.6)
• UK composite PMI (incl. construction) rebounds from March 50.0 to
50.9 in April with services, manufacturing & construction all expanding
April 2019 Global PMIs – Key highlights

4. • Private sector growth falls at its fastest rate in 76 months (45.8)
• All sectors bar manufacturing (51.7) posted a decline in output
• New orders (45.5) & export orders (41.7) hit 76 & 77-mth lows
• Employment hits a 78-mth low (45.9) with services at an 80-mth low
• NI firms raising goods / services prices at weakest pace in 37-mths
• Services output & orders fall at fastest rates since Jan-13
• Retail sales fall at their fastest pace since October 2012 (40.0)
• Significant slump in retail sentiment for year ahead – series low
• Manufacturing orders fell (49.0) for the first time in 2.5 years
• Manufacturing shedding jobs at its fastest pace in 6 years (46.7)
• Construction contraction continues with falling output (44.2) &
orders hitting a 31-mth low of 43.4
• NI remains the only UK region expecting output to fall in 12-mths
• NI posted the falls in output, orders & jobs of all the UK regions
April 2019 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

5. Global output growth slows to a 3-mth low due to services

6. China, the US and the Eurozone all post weaker PMIs in
April with Japan & the UK showing signs of improvement

7. Emerging Markets PMI remains above its Developed
Markets’ equivalent which eases to a 31-mth low

8. Emerging Markets PMI eases in April with slowdowns
evident in Brazil, Russia and India

9. Chinese manufacturing output growth slows but
services activity hits a 15-mth high

10. Pace of growth slows for Spain & Republic of Ireland with
Italy contracting again. Germany & France improve

11. EZ services and construction output slow in April
with manufacturing remaining in contraction mode

12. EZ PMI slowdown continues suggesting GDP growth
will follow but PMI overstated Q1 slowdown

13. Germany, Ireland & China post the fastest rates of services
growth. UK towards the bottom with NI at the very bottom

14. US manufacturing index slows to a 30-mth low with subdued
performance for Japan & China and EZ contracting

15. Very modest rates of manufacturing growth recorded
for both Developed & Emerging Markets PMIs

16. RoI sees its growth rate slow to a 71-mth low. UK rebounds
in April while NI contraction accelerates to a 76-mth low

17. PMI falling sharply suggesting that the Composite Index will
head south too.

18. 2019 has witnessed a U-turn in growth rates

19. Business conditions deteriorating markedly in April

20. Northern Ireland’s private sector reports an acceleration
in the rates of decline in output, orders and employment

21. UK & NI firms report falling orders with NI at a 76-mth
low. RoI growth continues but slows to a 71-mth low

22. NI & UK firms continue to report a decline in backlogs

23. NI firms report the sharpest fall in export orders since
November 2012 (77-mths)

24. NI’s private sector shedding jobs for 4th month running
and at their fastest rate since October 2012

25. NI’s firms in hiring mode in 2018 but the PMI suggests
2019 will be more challenging

26. Squeeze on profit margins intensifies as pricing power fades

27. Regional
Comparisons

28. Four regions post a contraction in output in April

29. The North West tops the regional growth table for the
last 3 mths with NI at the other end of the table

30. The East Midlands posts the fastest rates of output
over the last 12-months with NI ranked seventh

31. NI’s private sector is the only UK region expecting
output to fall in 12-months time. RoI at a 71-mth low!

32. NI was one of six UK regions to report job losses

33. NI was one of seven regions to report falling employment
levels in the 3 months to April 2019

34. The North West tops the jobs growth table with the
North East (job losses) at the bottom

35. Sectoral
Comparisons

36. UK services and construction sectors return to growth,
albeit very modest. Manufacturing output growth slows

37. UK GDP growth in Q1 2019 (+0.5% q/q) much
stronger than PMI was indicating

38. RoI output growth slows in manufacturing & services

39. Retail posts 3rd
successive quarterly fall in Q2. Output
falls for both services and construction

40. Slowdown evident across all sectors with notable
deterioration in retail

41. Pace of hiring continues within construction with
manufacturing & services shedding jobs

42. Input cost inflationary pressures easing outside of retail

43. Output price inflationary pressures easing markedly
particularly within construction & manufacturing

44. NI manufacturers report a slowdown in business
conditions

45. Manufacturing output growth amongst UK firms
accelerated but has slowed dramatically for NI firms

46. NI manufacturing output growth (last 3 months) slows
and is back below its pre-downturn long-term average

47. New orders growth slows for RoI & UK firms while NI
firms see growth stall in the three-months to April

48. NI’s manufacturing performance compares favourably
with its European peers but all are chasing Greece!

49. UK & global inflationary pressures remain subdued and
well below the rate amongst NI’s manufacturers

50. Manufacturing inflationary pressures ease

51. NI, UK & RoI manufacturing firms are all shedding staff

52. NI’s services sector reports a deterioration in
conditions with falling output, orders & employment

53. UK & NI firms report a stall / fall in service sector
output. Both economies lag well behind the RoI

54. NI’s services sector in contraction mode with pace of
growth drifting further below its pre-downturn average

55. NI & UK firms report a fall in new orders while the
RoI’s growth rate slows

56. A softening in service sector demand accompanied
by a weakening in pricing power

57. NI & UK firms report declining employment levels

58. Retailers report a slump in sales & new orders with
employment levels now falling

59. NI retailers feeling the squeeze on profit margins

60. NI’s construction firms report fall in output and new
orders but continued growth in staffing levels

61. Inflationary pressures remain intense amongst NI
construction firms but are beginning to ease

62. NI construction firms report falling output while
contrasting fortunes for UK (flat) & RoI (robust growth)

63. RoI firms report continued growth in new orders while UK
growth rate is flat with NI’s firms posting further declines

64. Contrast in business confidence within the construction
industry between NI and the UK remains

65. Only housing activity remains in growth mode with civil
engineering & commercial stuck in contraction territory

66. Construction sector still reporting a shortage of sub-
contractors with rates charged rising

67. Optimism amongst UK construction firms remains
well below long-term average

68. RoI housing & commercial activity growth slows while
engineering activity remains in contraction mode

69. RoI’s construction firms still reporting a decline in the
availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay

70. RoI construction firms remain more upbeat about
future business activity than the long-run average

71. Slide 71
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