The document provides a summary of the May 2021 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) survey results for Northern Ireland, the UK, Eurozone, and global economies. Key highlights include: - Global composite PMI accelerated to a 15-year high of 58.4 as output and services activity growth reached their fastest levels since 2006. - The UK composite PMI rose at a record rate of 63.0 with manufacturing and services PMIs hitting all-time highs. - Northern Ireland's private sector recovery continues to lag the rest of the UK, though all sectors reported output growth in May with order books and employment expanding. - Input cost inflation accelerated globally and across regions to new record

1. Ulster Bank Northern Ireland
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI &
Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
May 2021 Survey Update
Issued 14th June 2021
Richard Ramsey
Chief Economist Northern Ireland
www.ulstereconomix.com
richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter @UB_Economics

2. PMI Surveys
Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies
which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy
by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different
sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an
improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to
100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above
50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or
deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change
(expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration
expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to
more accurately identify the broad trends.

3. May 2021 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

4. • Global composite PMI accelerates to 58.4 – a 15-yr high
• Global services activity rises at its fastest pace (59.4) since Apr-06
• Developed Markets PMI (61.2) its fastest growth rate since Jan-04
• India (48.1) joins Brazil (49.2) in contraction
• Global input cost inflation hits its highest reading (67.0) since Aug-08
while output prices hit a new series high of 59.1
• Developed Markets’ manufacturing PMI hits a new record high of 59.8
• US Composite (68.7), services (70.4) & manufacturing (62.1) hit new
series highs
• Eurozone composite PMI hits a 39-mth high of 57.1 while the EZ’s
manufacturing PMI hits a new record high of 63.1
• UK composite PMI rises at a record rate of 63.0 (series begins Jul-96)
• RoI composite PMI rises at a record rate of 63.5
• UK manufacturing PMI hits a record high (65.6) with services (62.9) at
a 24-yr high. Construction 64.2 at its highest since Sep-14
May 2021 Global PMIs – highlights

5. • Output growth accelerates to 58.7 its joint-fastest in almost 7 yrs
All sectors saw an expansion in output in May
• Firms’ optimism for future output hits a 37-mth high (66.0)
• Manufacturers optimism hits a record high of 71.6
• New orders rise (55.8) at fastest pace in 40 months
• Services orders (56.5) rise for the first time since the pandemic
• But slump in export orders (41.0) continues
• Record improvement in export climate
• Joint-sharpest rise in employment on record (56.6)
• Input cost inflation increases to a record high (84.8)
• Manufacturing, construction & retail see costs rise at record rates
• Manufacturing & construction post record rates of output inflation
• Backlogs (54.0) increased at their fastest pace in 41 months
• Manufacturing backlogs rise at a record rate
May 2021 Northern Ireland PMI – Key highlights

6. Global output growth hits a 15-year high in May

7. Global services output hits a 15-yr high (59.4) while
manufacturing output growth eases back from decade high

8. EZ accelerates (39-mth high) while the US hits an all-time
high. China’s growth rate slows & Japan back below 50

9. Developed Markets PMI hits 61.2 its highest since Jan
2004 while Emerging Markets’ slips to 52.8

10. India returns to contraction joining Brazil. Russia
improves to a 9-mth high

11. Chinese composite, manufacturing & services PMIs
see their respective growth rates ease in May

12. Ireland & Spain leading France, Germany & Italy

13. Manufacturing output growth eases from recent high
while services accelerates towards a 3-year high

14. US & the UK top the table for service sector growth while
Brazil, Japan & India are at the bottom in contraction mode

15. Eurozone hits a fresh record high with the US’s robust
rates of growth continuing

16. Developed Markets’ hits a new record high (59.8)
while Emerging Markets’ growth rate slips

17. All three economies report an acceleration in the rate
of growth in business activity in May

18. 2020 has seen business conditions deteriorate at record rates

19. Business conditions improve in Q2* with most
indicators recording growth

20. NI firms report a rise in output, orders & employment
in May

21. Order books growing across all three economies

22. Northern Ireland firms report mounting backlogs

23. NI export orders slump continues

24. All three economies report a pick-up in jobs growth

25. Private sector employment growing rapidly in Q2-21*

26. Input cost & output price inflation accelerating at
record rates

27. Regional
Comparisons

28. All UK regions posted output growth in May

29. NI’s private sector recovery lags the rest of the UK

30. Scotland posts the fastest rate of output contraction
over the last 12-mths followed by NI

31. NI remains the least optimistic / most pessimistic
about the future than any other UK region

32. All regions post rises in employment levels in May

33. All regions bar Wales recorded employment growth
over the last 3 months

34. All regions post job losses over the last 12 months led
by Wales & London

35. Sectoral
Comparisons

36. All 3 UK sectors report robust rates of output growth

37. RoI’s trio of PMIs record robust rates of growth in May

38. Manufacturing is the only sector to post output
growth in Jan-May 2021

39. All sectors post growth in Q2*

40. Services & construction cross the expansion threshold
on a 3-month average basis joining manufacturing

41. Rate of job creation accelerates in Q2 amongst
manufacturing and services firms

42. Manufacturing posts a record rise in backlogs

43. Input cost inflation accelerating at record rates

44. Firms raising their prices at record rates led by retail

45. NI manufacturers report strong rates of growth in
output, orders and employment

46. All 3 economies post a pick-up in the rate of manufacturing
output growth in the three months to May

47. NI manufacturing output growth back above long-
term average

48. Order books are expanding at a rapid pace too

49. NI manufacturers catching up with – and overtaking
some of – its European peers

50. NI & UK manufacturers reporting faster rates of
growth in input cost inflation than the Global PMI

51. Manufacturing firms’ passing on input costs at a record rate

52. NI, UK & RoI manufacturers all experience rapid rates of
employment growth

53. NI services sector on the turn with output / orders
joining (only just) employment in expansion territory

54. NI’s services sector recovery continues to lag behind
the UK and RoI

55. NI’s services sector has returned to growth but 3 month
moving average is still well below long-term average

56. NI’s service sector order books still hit by reduced
demand but May’s monthly outturn returned to growth

57. Service sector experiencing a squeeze on profit
margins with input cost inflation accelerating

58. All economies report a marked pick-up in job creation
within the services sector

59. Retail sales, orders & employment all rise in May

60. Retailers posting record rates of inflation

61. In the 3 months to May, NI’s construction sector posted a
rise in output but declines in orders & employment

62. Construction firms’ profit margins being severely
squeezed in the face of accelerating input cost inflation

63. RoI & NI construction recovery lagging behind the UK

64. UK construction orders growth continues with RoI
posting a pick-up too. NI orders still in decline

65. NI construction firms remain significantly less
optimistic than their UK and NI counterparts

66. All aspects of UK construction reporting robust
rates of growth in May

67. Construction sector’s availability of sub-contractors
falls with rates charged rising at a record rate

68. Optimism amongst UK construction remains well
above long-term average

69. Housing activity increases at a record rate with
commercial and engineering also growing strongly

70. Availability of sub-contractors continues to decrease
as rates charged by subcontractors hits a record high

71. Optimism amongst RoI construction firms remains
well above its long-term average

72. Slide 72
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