This document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook and discusses how falling oil prices and a rising US dollar are impacting consumer markets. Key points include:
- Falling oil prices are boosting consumer purchasing power but hurting oil-exporting economies. Prices may continue falling in the short term but rebound in 1-2 years as US production declines.
- The rising US dollar is disinflationary domestically but inflationary for other countries, posing risks for emerging markets with dollar-denominated debts. The dollar will likely continue rising in early 2015.
- China's economy is slowing as export markets weaken and efforts to curb shadow banking contribute to deceleration, though the