The document discusses the costs of conflict on development and food security. It finds that civil wars reduce GDP growth by about 0.6% per year of conflict, while interstate wars have less impact. Conflict weakens institutions, reduces trade and investment, and harms social development indicators like education and health. Post-conflict countries face challenges providing services due to weak governance and fragmented aid approaches that risk aid dependence. Military spending in post-conflict nations may crowd out social spending.
The document discusses trends in the global economy and financial markets from an Austrian economic perspective. It argues that unsustainable government spending and monetary policies will lead to inflation and future crises. Charts show rising government spending compared to median income, projections of future oil supply and demand, and the growing purchasing power of emerging economies. The author believes investors should focus on capital preservation in this uncertain environment.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with over $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios.
Agcapita August 7, 2012 Briefing - Rollover Risk World Tour 2015Veripath Partners
Rollover risk can be defined broadly as the possibility that a borrower cannot refinance maturing debt. If combined with insufficient funds/liquid assets on hand to fund the shortfall, the borrower will experience a liquidity problem and technically may be considered insolvent.
"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome" – Veripath Farmland Funds Q4 Investor Letter: Investing in a World of Financial Repression, Negative Real Rates, Valuation “Challenges” and Inflationary Forces.
Do G7 governments have an incentive to attempt to keep inflation higher for longer and real rates lower for longer? Negative real rates across a broad spectrum of credit assets are a graphic sign that we inhabit a world of financial repression orchestrated by central banks at the formal/informal behest of sovereign borrowers. In a normally functioning market, lenders do not provide capital to borrowers for negative yields – i.e., they do not pay for the privilege of lending. It goes without saying we are not in a normally functioning market.
Syz & co syz asset management - 1 month in 10 snapshots february 2013SYZBank
Every month SYZ Asset Management publishes “1 month in 10 snapshots” a review of global economic activity. Since an image can be more telling than words, every month we select 10 charts illustrating the key data that has marked economic and financial activity over the month, decoding their meaning with a brief explanation.
Weekly Market Snapshot, September 18, 2009Jeff Green
The economic data remained consistent with the view that the recession has likely ended. Retail sales for August were boosted considerably by the “Cash for Clunkers” program. Ex-autos, sales rose more than anticipated. Industrial production, an important coincident economic indicator, improved in August for a second monthly gain. Residential construction figures were mixed in August, with a slight weakening in single-family activity (but the trend is higher). Inflation figures reflected higher energy prices – amplified by the seasonal adjustment – but core inflation remained mild.
This document analyzes the real effects of different types of debt, including government, corporate, and household debt. The authors find that beyond certain thresholds, debt becomes a drag on economic growth. Specifically, their analysis of OECD countries from 1980 to 2010 finds that government debt above 85% of GDP, corporate debt above 90% of GDP, and household debt above 85% of GDP can negatively impact growth. The authors conclude that highly indebted countries need to reduce their debt levels to avoid harming long-term growth, which is made more difficult by aging populations in advanced economies.
The document discusses trends in the global economy and financial markets from an Austrian economic perspective. It argues that unsustainable government spending and monetary policies will lead to inflation and future crises. Charts show rising government spending compared to median income, projections of future oil supply and demand, and the growing purchasing power of emerging economies. The author believes investors should focus on capital preservation in this uncertain environment.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with over $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios.
Agcapita August 7, 2012 Briefing - Rollover Risk World Tour 2015Veripath Partners
Rollover risk can be defined broadly as the possibility that a borrower cannot refinance maturing debt. If combined with insufficient funds/liquid assets on hand to fund the shortfall, the borrower will experience a liquidity problem and technically may be considered insolvent.
"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome" – Veripath Farmland Funds Q4 Investor Letter: Investing in a World of Financial Repression, Negative Real Rates, Valuation “Challenges” and Inflationary Forces.
Do G7 governments have an incentive to attempt to keep inflation higher for longer and real rates lower for longer? Negative real rates across a broad spectrum of credit assets are a graphic sign that we inhabit a world of financial repression orchestrated by central banks at the formal/informal behest of sovereign borrowers. In a normally functioning market, lenders do not provide capital to borrowers for negative yields – i.e., they do not pay for the privilege of lending. It goes without saying we are not in a normally functioning market.
Syz & co syz asset management - 1 month in 10 snapshots february 2013SYZBank
Every month SYZ Asset Management publishes “1 month in 10 snapshots” a review of global economic activity. Since an image can be more telling than words, every month we select 10 charts illustrating the key data that has marked economic and financial activity over the month, decoding their meaning with a brief explanation.
Weekly Market Snapshot, September 18, 2009Jeff Green
The economic data remained consistent with the view that the recession has likely ended. Retail sales for August were boosted considerably by the “Cash for Clunkers” program. Ex-autos, sales rose more than anticipated. Industrial production, an important coincident economic indicator, improved in August for a second monthly gain. Residential construction figures were mixed in August, with a slight weakening in single-family activity (but the trend is higher). Inflation figures reflected higher energy prices – amplified by the seasonal adjustment – but core inflation remained mild.
This document analyzes the real effects of different types of debt, including government, corporate, and household debt. The authors find that beyond certain thresholds, debt becomes a drag on economic growth. Specifically, their analysis of OECD countries from 1980 to 2010 finds that government debt above 85% of GDP, corporate debt above 90% of GDP, and household debt above 85% of GDP can negatively impact growth. The authors conclude that highly indebted countries need to reduce their debt levels to avoid harming long-term growth, which is made more difficult by aging populations in advanced economies.
Confidence falls for the third consecutive period but the Australian dream of home ownership is still alive...
The Streets Ahead report is released biannually and discusses the results of the Genworth Homebuyer Confidence Index (HCI) which measures existing homebuyer and potential homebuyer sentiment about their own mortgage and the overall mortgage market. It combines data collected fromover 14,000 consumers since 2005 and Genworth’s own unique data, built up over more than 45 years.
The document discusses three potential paths for markets in 2013: a base case, bull case, and bear case. The base case, which has a 55-65% probability of occurring, involves a compromise deal between Democrats and Republicans to modestly mitigate the fiscal cliff and result in low single-digit returns. A bull case involves a long-term fiscal solution, while a bear case risks recession if a deal is not reached. The path taken will depend on negotiations in the lame duck session and early 2013.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios. Agcapita publishes a monthly agriculture briefing.
The document provides a timeline of communications from August 2010 to May 2011 regarding the economic outlook. It expresses concerns about a double-dip recession and discusses the impacts of slowing global growth on issues like employment, consumer spending, inflation, and equities. A case study is presented of how one professional services firm prospered during a downturn by adjusting operations and marketing.
The document provides an overview of various economic metrics and trends including:
1) Key stock market indexes and bond yields declined over the past quarter but have shown growth over the past year.
2) Worldwide and US M&A activity is up sharply year-to-date, though concerns exist that credit issues could slow future deals.
3) Private equity continues to outperform public markets and charge high fees, though most funds commit a modest percentage of assets.
3) US economic growth has declined steadily over the past decades and has not exceeded 4% since 2000, which may constrain stock market returns.
- The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for February 2013 from Henley, a wealth management firm.
- It discusses the decoupling of markets and fundamentals due to money printing by developed nations, and sees a currency crisis as likely within the next couple years.
- In equities, it is positive in the short-term due to quantitative easing inflating prices, but negative on fundamentals. Real estate prices are stabilizing in select areas like Singapore, London, and signs of stability in the US, but further weakness is expected elsewhere. Fixed income carries inflation risk from monetary easing.
The economic data were mixed, but, generally, on the strong side of expectations. Consumer confidence improved in August. It is still relatively weak by historical standards, but moving in the right direction. Evaluations of current job availability remained depressed, but were not quite as bad as in July. New home sales rose 9.6% in July, while figures for the three previous months were revised higher. Durable goods orders jumped 4.9% in July, reflecting a spike in civilian aircraft orders (a moderately positive trend otherwise).
To
help senior executives weather this economic storm, the Economist Intelligence Unit has updated its
answers to some of the questions most frequently asked by clients, following the publication of the
four previous editions of Global crisis monitor. In answering each question, we outline our current
forecast, explain our thinking, and highlight any key risks or alternative scenarios.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Chief Investment Officer Ben Pace of Deutsche Bank presents on the state of the world economy and how it will effect luxury real estate prices in 2012 and beyond. From The Key 2012, luxury real estate conference by Concierge Auctions.
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
This document discusses trends in the global economy and implications for private equity. It analyzes the unprecedented levels of debt in the US economy and ongoing deleveraging process across sectors. Deleveraging involves debt repayment and defaults, which reduces spending and availability of credit, lowering asset prices and economic activity. The housing market downturn and end of mortgage equity withdrawals have further depressed the US economy into its most severe recession since WWII. Globalization of credit issues has spread the crisis to Europe and emerging markets through channels like falling trade and commodity prices.
The document provides commentary on macroeconomic conditions and trends in various countries/regions. Key points include:
1) A second Greek bailout is likely as the country works to implement austerity measures to reduce its deficit. However, there is uncertainty around reaching agreements on debt restructuring.
2) Consumer confidence fell in the US, Eurozone, and UK as economies showed signs of slowing. Growth is expected to remain weak.
3) The Portuguese government unveiled new fiscal measures but the country's fiscal position may be worse than expected due to risks from state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships.
4) German unemployment declined further but the resilience of its economy is unsustainable amid the debt crisis; French
The document summarizes key points from the January FOMC meeting and provides an economic calendar and predictions for the coming week:
1) The FOMC statement was very dovish, extending the period before expected rate hikes to late 2014 or later and emphasizing that projections should be discounted compared to the policy guidance.
2) The FOMC has quietly raised its inflation target and changed the weights in its Taylor rule to accept more inflation volatility in support of broader economic goals like lending and housing.
3) Taken together, the FOMC actions suggest an even later first rate hike, higher odds of additional QE focused on mortgage-backed securities, and a more accommodative monetary policy to support the economy.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | April 2020 | Ernest Hemingway, Albert Camus, an...Mercer Capital
This document summarizes an article analyzing potential credit risk issues for banks due to the COVID-19 pandemic and economic downturn. It begins by noting that while current asset quality metrics don't yet show issues, bank stock prices have fallen due to expected problems. The article then discusses using the 2008 financial crisis as a reference, noting loan growth was more balanced this time. Historical loss rates are compared to today. Areas of potential concern include commercial and industrial loans and commercial real estate loans to hard-hit industries like hotels and retail. The impacts on rural vs. metropolitan banks are also considered. Rating agency data on at-risk loan categories is presented.
The document discusses opportunities and challenges for achieving nutrition security in low and middle income countries. It finds that while stunting in children under 5 has decreased from 44% to 29% between 1990 and 2010, 171 million children are still stunted. Overweight in children is also increasing steadily. There has been slow progress in reducing micronutrient deficiencies and low birth weight. Undernutrition and overnutrition can coexist in the same country, individual, and even household. Improving nutrition is important as malnutrition impacts cognitive development, economic productivity, and overall societal and economic costs. To accelerate progress in nutrition, countries need to focus on prevention during the first 1000 days of life from conception to 24 months, invest in nutrition-specific and nutrition
This document outlines the research themes and subthemes for CRP2. There are 3 themes: 1) Effective policies and strategic investments, 2) Inclusive governance and institutions, and 3) Linking small producers to markets. Each theme contains 2-4 subthemes that define goals, activities, and key features for research. The purpose is to allow participants to vote on the relative importance of the 10 subthemes.
The document discusses several challenges facing Egypt including youth aspirations, weaknesses of civil society, challenges to the welfare state, and issues in agriculture. It proposes several areas of action to address these such as economic empowerment programs for youth, social marketing for youth development, targeting resources geographically for social justice, and promoting entrepreneurship to create off-farm employment. The goal is to empower youth and promote social justice, welfare, and agricultural development in Egypt.
This document summarizes a presentation on an IFPRI food policy report about achieving food security and poverty reduction in the Arab world. The presentation focused on measuring food security in the Arab region and policies and investments to improve food security. Key points included that over 30% of the population in some Arab countries are at risk of food insecurity, and that economic growth needs to be more pro-poor, including in agriculture, to effectively reduce poverty and hunger. The report suggests country-specific strategies are needed and should focus on job creation for poor households or encouraging agricultural exports and imports as needed.
Cluster-based industrialization in China allowed thousands of small, specialized firms to coordinate production through informal networks. This dispersed production model circumvented constraints on access to capital by allowing firms to specialize in individual production steps and pool resources. Key to this model was the role of local governments in providing public goods like infrastructure, marketplaces, and training to support firm clustering and growth. The cashmere sweater cluster of Puyuan, China became one of the "world factories" through this approach, with family workshops and merchants coordinating across the town.
1) Structural reforms in Egypt from 2001-2008 led to slow redistribution of employment towards sectors like manufacturing, transportation, communication, wholesale/retail trade, and extraction.
2) These structural changes were associated with increasing productivity in the same economic activities.
3) The private sector was the primary source of both employment growth and productivity increases over this period.
Confidence falls for the third consecutive period but the Australian dream of home ownership is still alive...
The Streets Ahead report is released biannually and discusses the results of the Genworth Homebuyer Confidence Index (HCI) which measures existing homebuyer and potential homebuyer sentiment about their own mortgage and the overall mortgage market. It combines data collected fromover 14,000 consumers since 2005 and Genworth’s own unique data, built up over more than 45 years.
The document discusses three potential paths for markets in 2013: a base case, bull case, and bear case. The base case, which has a 55-65% probability of occurring, involves a compromise deal between Democrats and Republicans to modestly mitigate the fiscal cliff and result in low single-digit returns. A bull case involves a long-term fiscal solution, while a bear case risks recession if a deal is not reached. The path taken will depend on negotiations in the lame duck session and early 2013.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios. Agcapita publishes a monthly agriculture briefing.
The document provides a timeline of communications from August 2010 to May 2011 regarding the economic outlook. It expresses concerns about a double-dip recession and discusses the impacts of slowing global growth on issues like employment, consumer spending, inflation, and equities. A case study is presented of how one professional services firm prospered during a downturn by adjusting operations and marketing.
The document provides an overview of various economic metrics and trends including:
1) Key stock market indexes and bond yields declined over the past quarter but have shown growth over the past year.
2) Worldwide and US M&A activity is up sharply year-to-date, though concerns exist that credit issues could slow future deals.
3) Private equity continues to outperform public markets and charge high fees, though most funds commit a modest percentage of assets.
3) US economic growth has declined steadily over the past decades and has not exceeded 4% since 2000, which may constrain stock market returns.
- The document provides an outlook on various asset classes and markets for February 2013 from Henley, a wealth management firm.
- It discusses the decoupling of markets and fundamentals due to money printing by developed nations, and sees a currency crisis as likely within the next couple years.
- In equities, it is positive in the short-term due to quantitative easing inflating prices, but negative on fundamentals. Real estate prices are stabilizing in select areas like Singapore, London, and signs of stability in the US, but further weakness is expected elsewhere. Fixed income carries inflation risk from monetary easing.
The economic data were mixed, but, generally, on the strong side of expectations. Consumer confidence improved in August. It is still relatively weak by historical standards, but moving in the right direction. Evaluations of current job availability remained depressed, but were not quite as bad as in July. New home sales rose 9.6% in July, while figures for the three previous months were revised higher. Durable goods orders jumped 4.9% in July, reflecting a spike in civilian aircraft orders (a moderately positive trend otherwise).
To
help senior executives weather this economic storm, the Economist Intelligence Unit has updated its
answers to some of the questions most frequently asked by clients, following the publication of the
four previous editions of Global crisis monitor. In answering each question, we outline our current
forecast, explain our thinking, and highlight any key risks or alternative scenarios.
MTBiz is for you if you are looking for contemporary information on business, economy and especially on banking industry of Bangladesh. You would also find periodical information on Global Economy and Commodity Markets.
Chief Investment Officer Ben Pace of Deutsche Bank presents on the state of the world economy and how it will effect luxury real estate prices in 2012 and beyond. From The Key 2012, luxury real estate conference by Concierge Auctions.
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
This document discusses trends in the global economy and implications for private equity. It analyzes the unprecedented levels of debt in the US economy and ongoing deleveraging process across sectors. Deleveraging involves debt repayment and defaults, which reduces spending and availability of credit, lowering asset prices and economic activity. The housing market downturn and end of mortgage equity withdrawals have further depressed the US economy into its most severe recession since WWII. Globalization of credit issues has spread the crisis to Europe and emerging markets through channels like falling trade and commodity prices.
The document provides commentary on macroeconomic conditions and trends in various countries/regions. Key points include:
1) A second Greek bailout is likely as the country works to implement austerity measures to reduce its deficit. However, there is uncertainty around reaching agreements on debt restructuring.
2) Consumer confidence fell in the US, Eurozone, and UK as economies showed signs of slowing. Growth is expected to remain weak.
3) The Portuguese government unveiled new fiscal measures but the country's fiscal position may be worse than expected due to risks from state-owned enterprises and public-private partnerships.
4) German unemployment declined further but the resilience of its economy is unsustainable amid the debt crisis; French
The document summarizes key points from the January FOMC meeting and provides an economic calendar and predictions for the coming week:
1) The FOMC statement was very dovish, extending the period before expected rate hikes to late 2014 or later and emphasizing that projections should be discounted compared to the policy guidance.
2) The FOMC has quietly raised its inflation target and changed the weights in its Taylor rule to accept more inflation volatility in support of broader economic goals like lending and housing.
3) Taken together, the FOMC actions suggest an even later first rate hike, higher odds of additional QE focused on mortgage-backed securities, and a more accommodative monetary policy to support the economy.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | April 2020 | Ernest Hemingway, Albert Camus, an...Mercer Capital
This document summarizes an article analyzing potential credit risk issues for banks due to the COVID-19 pandemic and economic downturn. It begins by noting that while current asset quality metrics don't yet show issues, bank stock prices have fallen due to expected problems. The article then discusses using the 2008 financial crisis as a reference, noting loan growth was more balanced this time. Historical loss rates are compared to today. Areas of potential concern include commercial and industrial loans and commercial real estate loans to hard-hit industries like hotels and retail. The impacts on rural vs. metropolitan banks are also considered. Rating agency data on at-risk loan categories is presented.
The document discusses opportunities and challenges for achieving nutrition security in low and middle income countries. It finds that while stunting in children under 5 has decreased from 44% to 29% between 1990 and 2010, 171 million children are still stunted. Overweight in children is also increasing steadily. There has been slow progress in reducing micronutrient deficiencies and low birth weight. Undernutrition and overnutrition can coexist in the same country, individual, and even household. Improving nutrition is important as malnutrition impacts cognitive development, economic productivity, and overall societal and economic costs. To accelerate progress in nutrition, countries need to focus on prevention during the first 1000 days of life from conception to 24 months, invest in nutrition-specific and nutrition
This document outlines the research themes and subthemes for CRP2. There are 3 themes: 1) Effective policies and strategic investments, 2) Inclusive governance and institutions, and 3) Linking small producers to markets. Each theme contains 2-4 subthemes that define goals, activities, and key features for research. The purpose is to allow participants to vote on the relative importance of the 10 subthemes.
The document discusses several challenges facing Egypt including youth aspirations, weaknesses of civil society, challenges to the welfare state, and issues in agriculture. It proposes several areas of action to address these such as economic empowerment programs for youth, social marketing for youth development, targeting resources geographically for social justice, and promoting entrepreneurship to create off-farm employment. The goal is to empower youth and promote social justice, welfare, and agricultural development in Egypt.
This document summarizes a presentation on an IFPRI food policy report about achieving food security and poverty reduction in the Arab world. The presentation focused on measuring food security in the Arab region and policies and investments to improve food security. Key points included that over 30% of the population in some Arab countries are at risk of food insecurity, and that economic growth needs to be more pro-poor, including in agriculture, to effectively reduce poverty and hunger. The report suggests country-specific strategies are needed and should focus on job creation for poor households or encouraging agricultural exports and imports as needed.
Cluster-based industrialization in China allowed thousands of small, specialized firms to coordinate production through informal networks. This dispersed production model circumvented constraints on access to capital by allowing firms to specialize in individual production steps and pool resources. Key to this model was the role of local governments in providing public goods like infrastructure, marketplaces, and training to support firm clustering and growth. The cashmere sweater cluster of Puyuan, China became one of the "world factories" through this approach, with family workshops and merchants coordinating across the town.
1) Structural reforms in Egypt from 2001-2008 led to slow redistribution of employment towards sectors like manufacturing, transportation, communication, wholesale/retail trade, and extraction.
2) These structural changes were associated with increasing productivity in the same economic activities.
3) The private sector was the primary source of both employment growth and productivity increases over this period.
This document discusses enhancing food security in Arab countries through increased crop and livestock productivity using science and technology. It outlines challenges like water scarcity, degradation, and climate change facing the region. Sources of increased food production are discussed, including intensification, increasing arable land and cropping intensity. The document then describes applications of science and technology for sustainable intensification and coping with climate change implications. It proposes a CGIAR research program and concludes that partnerships applying improved technologies can enhance regional food security.
can-pro-growth-policies-lift-all-boats-structural-reforms-and-income-distribu...OECD, Economics Department
This document discusses how economic growth has been associated with rising inequality across OECD countries since the 1980s. While GDP per capita and average incomes were expected to rise together, growth has disproportionately benefited those at the top of the income distribution. Structural reforms can impact GDP and household incomes differently, with some reforms lifting lower incomes more than GDP. Reforms to labor markets, product markets, education, and tax systems present opportunities for policies that promote both long-term growth and more equitable income distribution. However, some reforms like tightening unemployment benefits could present tradeoffs between equity and growth goals.
Financial frictions likely contributed to the sharp and persistent productivity slowdown observed in advanced economies since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
The study finds that firms with higher pre-GFC debt vulnerabilities, such as larger amounts of debt maturing in 2008, experienced larger post-GFC declines in productivity growth compared to less vulnerable firms. This negative effect was stronger in countries where credit conditions tightened more severely after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
The results suggest financial frictions hampered investment in intangible assets at vulnerable firms, reducing productivity. In contrast, such relationships were not observed following past recessions that did not involve banking crises, indicating the GFC had distinct and longer-lasting impacts
The real exchange rate and economic growth: revisiting the case using exter...Nicha Tatsaneeyapan
This working paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate movements on economic growth using instrumental variables to address reverse causality. The main findings are:
1) Real depreciation significantly raises annual real GDP growth, while real appreciation reduces growth, especially for developing countries and pegs. This effect is not significant for advanced countries and floats.
2) The effects of real exchange rate movements appear approximately symmetric between appreciations and depreciations.
3) The instrumental variables estimates find larger effects than previous studies, strengthening the conclusion that exchange rates matter more for growth in developing economies.
The Least Developed Countries Report 2011 puts forward a policy framework for enhancing the development impact of South–South cooperation, and proposes ways to leverage South–South financial cooperation for development in the LDCs.
The document discusses the potential of financial transaction taxes (FTT) and currency transaction taxes (CTT) to generate substantial funds for development financing. Estimates suggest a tiny CTT of 0.5 basis points could generate $40 billion annually, while a broader FTT could raise up to $75 billion. However, higher taxes may reduce trading volumes and thus revenues. International agreements would be needed to dedicate revenues to development goals. FTTs could help curb disruptive high-frequency trading while taxing an undertaxed sector, providing a "double dividend."
The document discusses employment trends over the past 20 years and policies related to employment and development. It notes that employment is a key factor in poverty reduction but that economic crises negatively impact employment conditions. Six major labor market trends are outlined, including declining employment rates and increasing casualization of labor. Both short-term and long-term national employment policies are examined. The document also considers how development aid could be framed to better promote employment creation.
N a tio n a l Tax J o u rn a l, S e p te m b e r2 0 1 4 , 6 7 .docxrosemarybdodson23141
This document analyzes tax increment financing (TIF) debt in the United States between 2000-2013. It finds that TIF debt issuance grew steadily until peaking in 2006, but then declined sharply during and after the Great Recession. Total TIF debt issued was over $37 billion, with about 75% issued before the recession. California was historically the largest issuer of TIF debt but eliminated redevelopment agencies in 2011. The recession significantly limited how local governments structured and sold TIF debt due to constrained capital markets and increased risk aversion by investors.
This document summarizes an economic report analyzing the relationship between economic growth and inequality in 73 countries from 1993-2013. Two regression models were used to examine the impact of various economic variables on the rate of economic growth. The first model found a positive relationship between internal direct investment and growth. The second model found positive relationships between gross capital formation and growth. Both models found negative relationships between the GINI index, government debt, and GDP per capita with economic growth. The analysis aims to better understand how inequality impacts economic growth.
El jueves 17 de mayo del 2018 se organizó una Mesa Redonda en la Fundación Ramón Areces, en la cual se habló sobre las subidas de tipos en la era Trump y la nueva globalización.
This document summarizes academic debates around the impact of infrastructure investment on economic growth. Key points:
- There is consensus that infrastructure investment positively impacts growth, but estimates of how much it impacts growth vary widely. Estimates of infrastructure's elasticity on GDP range from 0.08% to over 2.5% depending on the region, sector, and time period studied.
- The impact of infrastructure likely depends on a country's development stage, with less developed countries seeing larger impacts. Investments in large, cross-border energy and transport projects may have significant impacts even in developed economies.
- Studies covering longer time periods are more likely to find positive impacts, as infrastructure benefits materialize slowly over time.
This document discusses clusters as an economic development strategy and analyzes cluster development and small business growth in the ten largest US cities. Some key points:
- Clusters of interconnected industries experience greater productivity and innovation. Many cities have adopted cluster-based strategies but implementation varies.
- From 2003-2011, some clusters in each city significantly outperformed overall metro area growth in employment and GMP. These "dominant, high-performing clusters" grew over 300% on average across the ten cities.
- Cities identify targeted clusters in plans but strategies differ in focus and metrics. Most target knowledge-based clusters like biotech and cleantech. Promising practices leverage university research and provide incubator space.
Breakfast with Matt Slaughter - The Global Economic Outlook: What's Next?tuckalumni
The Global Economic Outlook: What's Next?
Here in mid-2012, the global economy continues to expand but also to face significant risks. In Europe, the financial crisis of many banks and sovereigns has worsened in recent months. In the United States, growth in employment and output remain slow—and several difficult fiscal choices await the end of the year. Many BRIC-and-beyond countries continue to grow fast—but in China and India, most notably, growth has slowed the past year. This inaugural “Breakfast with Matt” will examine some of the main factors in the global economic outlook.
About Matthew Slaughter
Associate Dean for the MBA Program; Signal Companies Professor of Management
In addition to academic scholarship, Dean Slaughter writes general-interest items for the business and policy communities. Slaughter has also given speeches to and testified before both chambers of the U.S. Congress. His work and ideas have been widely featured in business media.
Growth-Debt Nexus: An Examination of Public Debt Levelsand Debt Crisis in Zim...iosrjce
Government debt is an indirect debt of the taxpayers, and can be classified as internal or external.
Debt crisis is the general term for a proliferation of massive public debt relative to tax revenues.Public debt
enables governments to invest in critical areas of the economy where the capacity of tax revenue to undertake
these projects may be limited or in situations where printing additional money will disrupt the stability of the
economy. Government borrows in order defer difficult but necessary reforms such as the imposition of taxes
which might be necessary to generate revenue for development. Countries with high public debt tend to grow
slowly. The study examines the origin of debt crisis in Zimbabwe, debt nature, causes, consequences and
possible ways of reducing the debt. The study uses 1980-2013 data to run an OLS model on economic growth
using STATA Econometric Software, in an effort to explore the effect of external debt. The regression results
shows that public debt has a negative effect on economic growth in Zimbabwe, which has varying theories
prevailing. The study concludes by encouraging the government not to borrow unnecessarily, and to use
borrowed funds for investment projects, rather than on consumption expenditure
Session 8 c diewert discussion of feenstra inklaar and timmerIARIW 2014
This document provides a summary and discussion of the paper "Penn World Tables 8.0: A User Guide" by Robert Feenstra, Robert Inklaar, and Marcel Timmer. There are three major changes in PWT 8.0: 1) inclusion of export and import PPPs to measure real GDP, 2) interpolation of real GDP between benchmark years, and 3) inclusion of capital stock and labor input measures. The discussion notes improvements in PWT 8.0 but also provides suggestions for further changes, such as moving to net output measures, using alternative interpolation methods, and improving capital stock and labor input estimates.
Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique a Reinh...Marco Garoffolo
Proprio in questi giorni abbiamo avuto una prova, decisiva, dell'utilità della non-cooperazione con la ragion di Stato. Ne ha riferito Paul Krugman, in un articolo che dichiara defunta, almeno nelle accademie, l'Austerità (Repubblica, 27 aprile). È un dogma cui l'Europa è appesa da anni: se non cresciamo economicamente, è solo perché gli Stati sono troppo indebitati. A sfatare l'assioma: tre economisti non ortodossi dell'università di Massachusetts-Amherst (i professori Michael Ash e Robert Pollin, lo studente di dottorato Thomas Herndon) che hanno scoperto errori di computer (l'errore Excel) commessi nel 2010 dai due economisti di Harvard, Kenneth Rogoff e Carmen Reinhart. Il dogma ("i Paesi che si indebitano oltre il 90 per cento del Pil non possono crescere") è in pezzi. http://www.peri.umass.edu/fileadmin/pdf/working_papers/working_papers_301-350/WP322.pdf
Policy Highlights from the publication Regional Outlook 2016, Productive Regions for Inclusive Societies. For more information see http://www.oecd.org/gov/oecd-regional-outlook-2016-9789264260245-en.htm
This document discusses frameworks for determining acceptable levels of risk from a societal and individual perspective. It presents a case study analyzing pipeline failures in Nigeria. The following key points are made:
1. A model is proposed that considers cost-benefit analysis and voluntariness of risk to determine acceptable individual and societal risk levels.
2. The model is applied to pipeline failures in Nigeria, finding an acceptable individual risk level of 1x10-6 and societal risk level of no more than 450 deaths per year.
3. A sensitivity analysis shows that population increases around pipelines require lower failure probabilities to maintain acceptable risk levels.
Global Developments and Regional ImplicationsSDGsPlus
This document discusses global economic conditions and policy challenges. It notes that while a global recession is not currently underway, growth prospects have weakened and risks are rising. Policy space for cyclical policies is shrinking, so implementing structural reforms is important to improve growth outcomes. Major risks include further growth setbacks, financial turbulence, and geopolitical instability. The document also outlines the World Bank Group's strategy for the Middle East and North Africa region, focusing on improving governance, regional integration, resilience to refugee shocks, and recovery/reconstruction efforts.
Productivity and Credit Constraint, Gilbert Cette June 18, 2018Soledad Zignago
Gilbert Cette's slides on "Productivity and Credit Constraint", Productivity dynamics after the criisis, Banque de France & Collège de France conference, Paris June 18, 2018
Food Security in the Arab World Conference - Beirut, Lebanon | Summary Review...IFPRI
This document summarizes the key topics discussed at the Food Secure Arab World conference in February 2012. It identifies that food insecurity has become a high priority in Arab countries due to recent crises. The conference addressed emerging issues around food, water and jobs. It outlined 9 key messages around managing transitions, fostering growth, improving trade, developing agriculture and partnerships to achieve food security in the Arab world.
This document outlines a roadmap for improving food security in the Arab world through policy and research. It discusses how food insecurity contributed to the Arab Awakening and that the issue is likely more severe than official data suggests. The document recommends a collaborative regional approach, improving data transparency, understanding policy processes, and supporting country-led development through partnerships between governments, organizations, and researchers. Smart strategic partnerships across all levels are especially needed to conceptualize and implement effective policies and initiatives.
The document discusses development indicators for Arab countries, Turkey, and Iran. It aims to provide an overview of the state of food security, poverty, and other social indicators. The objectives are to reduce rural poverty, increase food security and health, improve sustainability of natural resources, and enhance women's opportunities and participation. Several indicators are highlighted, including GDP per capita, rural and urban poverty rates, levels of food insecurity, access to improved water sources, water stress, ratios of girls to boys in school, and women's employment in non-agricultural sectors. The conclusion is that poverty, income inequality, and social indicators are likely higher than official numbers suggest, requiring a multi-sectoral approach and prioritized funding.
The document outlines a priority-setting process for CRP2 funding in a specific region. It involves regional experts scoring 10 subthemes of CRP2 based on their contribution to 4 objectives: increasing food security/nutrition/health; reducing rural poverty; improving sustainability of natural resources; and enhancing opportunities/participation of women. Scores are weighted and combined to determine priority levels for each subtheme to guide CRP2 implementation and funding in the region. The goal is to reflect the most important priorities for that region. The principles are participation, transparency, standardized measurement, and simplicity.
This document provides an overview of the CGIAR Research Program 2 (CRP2) which aims to strengthen food security and incomes for rural poor through identifying policies, institutions, and markets. The CRP2 will conduct integrated research across three themes: effective policies and strategic investments; inclusive governance and institutions; and linking small producers to markets. It will use innovative research approaches and form partnerships to conduct strategic research and influence policy changes to ultimately reduce rural poverty and improve food security. The CRP2 budget is $126 million over three years sourced from CGIAR Fund and other donors.
This document discusses the need for effective early warning and food security information systems in the Arab region. It notes that timely vulnerability analysis and policy-relevant information is needed to help countries better manage food insecurity threats and crises. While some factors leading to recent food price increases could have been identified, most national data in the region is outdated or inaccessible. Strengthening monitoring capacities across markets, trade, agriculture and socioeconomic indicators would help policymakers make more evidence-based decisions to improve food security. Key areas for enhanced monitoring are identified.
Global food requirements are projected to increase significantly by 2050 due to population growth and increasing incomes. There are several strategies for ensuring global food security, including optimizing global trade, expanding agricultural production through foreign direct investment, developing metropolitan agriculture near cities, and closing yield gaps to unlock greater production in rural areas. No single approach will be sufficient, and food security requires managing risks through a variety of complementary pathways.
This document discusses three main issues related to food security in the Arab region:
1) Population growth and urbanization are putting pressure on limited land and water resources, exacerbating food import dependency and vulnerability to price volatility.
2) Climate change impacts threaten to reduce domestic food production further while social cohesion is at risk from rising food insecurity.
3) Governments need to rethink development strategies to boost agriculture, reduce poverty, and ensure long-term economic growth and food security in the face of these challenges.
Michael Johnson from the International Food Policy Research Institute spoke at a conference in Beirut, Lebanon on collaborating to inform future food security strategies. He discussed (1) how sharing data and research across countries can strengthen policies and growth, (2) the benefits of knowledge spillover between nations facing similar challenges, and (3) generating public goods like reports and tools to improve food security outcomes through regional cooperation.
This document discusses food security and sustainable development issues to be addressed at the Rio+20 Conference. It provides context on challenges to food security in the Arab region including limited natural resources and effects of climate change and desertification. It summarizes international commitments around food security, such as from the Rome Declaration and CSD-17. The document proposes that Rio+20 address new issues like climate adaptation and establish sustainable development goals around food including increasing agricultural efficiency and reducing land degradation. It argues a green economy approach can help balance environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainable land management and food security.
This document discusses lessons learned from country experiences managing trade, grain reserves, and food security. It analyzes how public stocks, international trade, and private sector imports can work complementarily to stabilize domestic food markets using examples from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Zambia. While public stocks aim to ensure food security, oversized reserves can disrupt markets and incur high storage and opportunity costs. Investing in agricultural productivity through research is an alternative that can boost supplies, incomes, and security.
1) Arab countries are highly dependent on wheat imports and vulnerable to price and supply risks in international markets.
2) Investments in wheat import supply chains are needed to reduce costs and inefficiencies, which could save billions annually and increase strategic grain reserves.
3) Improving regional cooperation and adopting best practices from successful supply chains can help address bottlenecks, lower costs, and enhance food security across Arab nations.
The document discusses nutrition challenges in the Arab world using Lebanon as a case study. It summarizes that (1) nutrition security is key to food security; (2) the Arab world faces a triple burden of malnutrition including deficiencies, excess, and disease; and (3) studies in Lebanon found pockets of severe food insecurity associated with poor nutrition outcomes like stunting.
This document discusses gender and food security in Arab countries. It begins by outlining women's varied roles and status across different sectors in the Arab world. It then examines how cultural and religious factors can both support and hinder gender equity. The document introduces the concept of the "food value chain" to illustrate women's contributions across agriculture, processing, retail, and more. It argues that supporting women's roles in these areas can boost food security, nutrition, health and well-being. The document concludes by proposing policy measures and further research to better recognize and optimize women's impact on food security through integrated, multisectoral approaches.
Session 4 a kenneth strzepek, sherman robinson and brent boehlertIFPRI
This document summarizes the potential economic impacts on Egypt from increased development and water usage upstream in the Nile River Basin. It finds that:
1) In early decades, Egypt may experience up to 3 years of 2.5% reduced energy production and 2 years of 1.5% reduced GDP from lower water flows.
2) However, the impacts decrease over time as Egypt's economy diversifies away from dependence on Nile water.
3) Regional cooperation to share hydropower benefits and coordinate water management during drought could help mitigate Egypt's economic losses.
1) The document examines whether there is an "Arab exceptionalism" when it comes to explaining conflicts, finding that economic growth alone does not sufficiently explain conflicts in Arab countries. 2) Food insecurity, as measured by child stunting, child mortality, and composite food security indexes, is significantly correlated with increased conflict risk in Arab countries. 3) Dependence on food imports and vulnerability to international food price fluctuations helps explain higher food insecurity and conflict risk in Arab net food importing countries.
1. The document analyzes frameworks for understanding the Arab revolutions, including the demise of the "autocratic bargain" between citizens and rulers.
2. It questions why the revolutions started in late 2010, noting unemployment was not rising and economic shocks were not recent.
3. A new model of the autocratic bargain is proposed involving alliances between autocrats, liberal "soft belly" groups, and repressed opposition, with dynamics of push and pull factors that could shift alignments.
4. The revolutions are seen as a moment when the liberal group shifted alliance away from the autocrat towards the opposition, causing the autocrat's fall once this new pact was
This document summarizes a presentation on food security and nutrition in the southern Mediterranean region. It provides an overview of the food security situation, highlighting structural issues like food deficits, high unemployment, and declining natural resources. It also examines case studies from the occupied Palestinian territory, Egypt, and Tunisia to illustrate household-level food insecurity challenges. The summary concludes that poverty is a core challenge, unemployment is high, and social protection programs will be increasingly important for resilience in the vulnerable context. It also identifies policy options like natural resource management and reforming social safety nets.
The document summarizes the key aspects of Yemen's National Food Security Strategy developed in collaboration between the Yemeni government and IFPRI. It provides an overview of the strategy's development process, objectives of increasing food security and reducing child malnutrition by specific targets years, and a 7-point action plan. Modeling analysis examined scenarios of promoting industry and service sector growth or agricultural policy reforms, finding the latter could significantly reduce undernourishment, especially among farmers. Future research will analyze impacts of Yemen's conflicts on development and food security in the medium to long term. IFPRI and MOPIC produced various documents and briefs summarizing the strategy and modeling results.
1. Cost of Conflict and Food
Security in the ESCWA Region
Vito Intini
Section for Emerging and Conflict Related Issues
6 February 2012
2. • Violent conflicts strengthen the popular conviction that
conflict is a development curse. But exactly how much does
it cost?
• Several studies have tried to provide an answer to this
question, but no consensual answer has emerged. In
particular, point estimates tend to vary considerably across
different studies.
• Moreover, the empirical assessment of the cost of conflict
poses a number of relevant methodological challenges that
are often overlooked in the existing literature.
• Finally, very little is known on the relationship between
conflict, on the one hand, and FS and development, on the
other, in the ESCWA region.
3. Outline
• Concepts and Stylized Facts
• Methodological Framework
• Transmission Channels
• Measurement of Impact of Conflict
• Conflict-FS Nexus and Challenges
• Recommendations
4. Concepts & Stylized Facts
• The most cited study in this area is Collier (1999). He finds
that civil war reduces the growth rate of per-capita GDP by
2.2% a year (10-year war would reduce pc GDP by ~25%).
• Collier also shows that after long civil wars the economy
recovers rapidly, whereas after short wars (more intense) it
continues to decline for at least five years.
• Rodrik (1999) argues that outbreaks of social conflict are a
primary reason why national economic growth lacks
persistence.
• Cerra and Saxena (2008) estimate that output declines 6% in
the immediate aftermath of a civil war. However, output
rebounds quickly, recovering half of the fall within a few years.
• Glick and Taylor (2010) find large and persistent impact of
interstate war on trade, national income, and global economic
welfare. The negative effect on trade is strong.
5. Concepts & Stylized Facts
• The conventional wisdom that interstate war disrupts
economic activity and hence reduces growth does not go
unchallenged.
• An increase in military expenditure might boost aggregate
demand and hence increase income through a multiplier
effect. However, this would likely be a short-term effect,
while in the long-term the growth potential of the economy
should decrease because of crowding-out effect on private
investment.
• A more general argument is that the occurrence of a war
would not alter the long-term trend of per-capita income, but
only cause a transitionary deviation from the steady state.
6. Methodology Issues
• Most of the existing literature estimates reduced form
models: models where per-capita income (or growth) is
regressed on a measure of conflict duration (or occurrence)
and a set of controls. However, these controls are often
variables that are themselves affected by war. This in turn
causes possible multicollinearity between conflict and the
controls and biases the estimates of the conflict effect.
• Some authors recognise this problem and exclude controls
that are most likely to be affected by conflict (for instance
Collier, 1999). However, if the excluded controls are
significant determinants of development (as measured by
income or any other variable), then an omitted variables
problem arises and estimates of the effect of conflict are
again likely to be biased (i.e. underestimated and/or not
significant).
7. Methodological Framework
• In our study, a structural model of conflict and development is
estimated for a large sample of countries over a period of >40
years (divided in sub-periods of 5 years each). In this way,
conflict is allowed to affect development both directly and
indirectly via its effect on the controls (institutions, policy,
investment).
• The structural model consists of a set of equations that capture
the effect of conflict on per-capita income and various other
(MDG) variables for ESCWA and other war-torn economies
while separating interstate from intrastate conflicts.
• Equations are estimated by taking into account dynamic effects
as well as endogeneity between conflict and development.
• Source of information on conflicts is the Correlates of War
project (COW): i) conflict duration, ii) number of deaths (more
challenging).
8. Preliminary General Findings
Civil Conflict Interstate Conflict
Av. Duration Av. Deaths Av. Duration Av. Deaths
World 0.27 106 0.07 271
ESCWA 0.39 105 0.13 903
• Most of the negative association between conflict time and growth/income
level is driven by civil conflicts. Interstate conflict duration appears to be
uncorrelated with growth and/or per-capita income level.
• One additional year of civil conflict is directly associated with a decline in
per-capita GDP growth of ~0.6% a year.
• However, we have not yet determined direction of causality.
11 12 11 12
10 10 8
Rate of growth of per-capita GDP
8
Rate of growth of per-capita GDP
Per-capita GDP (in log)
9 9
Per-capita GDP (log)
4 4
8 8
0 0
7 7
-4 -4
6 6
-8 -8
5 5
4 -12 4 -12
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
Years of intrastate war (in a quinquennium) Years of intrastate war (in a quinquennium) Years of interstate war (in a quinquennium) Years of interstate war (in a quinquennium)
9. Effect of Conflict on Institutions
Variable Estimate
Lagged Institution Index Quality 0.79 (0.01)***
Lagged GDP p.c. 0.43 (0.55)
Civil War -0.24 (0.56)
Inter-state War -2.57 (0.89)**
Civil War (ESCWA) -0.80 (0.12)***
Inter-state War (ESCWA) 0.50 (1.14)
ESCWA -0.30 (0.34)
Fuels 0.00 (0.00)
Legor 0.19 (0.31)
Ethnic 0.29 (0.50)
Malaria -0.08 (0.02)***
Constant 3.46 (0.55)***
Observations 503
Points on a scale 1-10. Robust standard errors in parenthesis; ***estimate is significant at 99% , **estimate is
significant at 95%, *estimate is significant at 90%; Endogenous variables: Civil War, Inter-state War, Civil
War (ESCWA), Interstate War (ESCWA), Fuels.
10. Effect of Conflict on Trade
Variable Estimate
Lagged Trade 0.89 (0.05)***
Civil War -1.51 (0.70)**
Inter-state War 0.96 (0.83)
Civil War (ESCWA) 1.43 (2.93)
Inter-state War (ESCWA) 14.19 (28.00)
ESCWA 4.30 (5.00)
GDP 6.22 (2.52)**
GDP p.c. -6.88 (3.52)*
Landlocked -23.84 (16.62)**
Country Surface -5.12 (1.64)***
Constant 54.78 (22.79)**
Observations 696
Figures in %. Robust standard errors in parenthesis; ***estimate is significant at 99% , **estimate is
significant at (95%), *estimate is significant at 90%; Endogenous variables: Inter-state War, Inter-state War
(ESCWA), GDP, GDP p.c.
11. Effect of Conflict on Investment
Variable Estimate
Lagged Investment 0.53 (0.07)***
Civil War -7.25 (3.55)**
Inter-state War 0.61 (0.41)
Civil War (ESCWA) -2.55 (0.69)***
Inter-state War (ESCWA) -1.13 (7.99)
ESCWA -0.61 (1.04)
Volatility -0.00 (0.00)***
Financial Openness 0.03 (0.24)
M2 -0.08 (0.02)***
Institutions 0.54 (0.60)
Trade 0.42 (0.15)***
Latitude 4.24 (3.33)
Landlocked -1.24 (1.69)
Malaria -0.34 (0.12)***
Constant 7.91 (2.98)***
Observations 551
Figures in %. Endogenous variables: war_intl, war_intl_escwa, war_civil, war_civil_escwa, M2,
Institutions, Trade, Fin_open, Volatility.
12. Effect of Conflict on MDG Dimensions)
HDI Social Immuniz. Life Average Access Child Inequal.
Expect. School. to Sanit. Mortal.
Civil War -0.00 -0.09*** -1.53* 0.30 -0.01 -0.41 1.32 -0.32
Inter-state -0.92*** -0.02 -4.12 -0.55*** -0.21** 0.32*** 3.33** -4.11
War
Civil War -0.13 0.13 1.94 -1.38*** -0.03 -0.88 2.43** 15.23***
(ESCWA)
Inter-state -1.63 -2.73*** -26.47 -1.78 -0.26 -0.03*** 0.02 -0.06
War
(ESCWA)
GDP p.c. 10.63*** 1.96*** 30.19*** 8.13*** 2.32*** -0.81 -0.01 2.36*
Human = av. years of schooling * life expectancy; Immunization = % children aged 12-
23 months that have been immunized against measles.; Social: weighted av. of (i) av.
years of education in the population, (ii) life expectancy, and (iii) rate of children
immunization. Access to water, maternal mortality, child malnutrition are not significant
after controlling for PC GDP.
13. Estimated Impact of Conflict on Development
Civil Conflict (%) Inter-state Confl (%)
All ESCWA All ESCWA
Countries Countries
GDP p.c. (without Investment) -14.70 -17.40 -8.03 -8.03
GDP p.c. (with Investment) -15.15 -18.50 -7.06 -7.06
GDP p.c. (direct war effect) -1.70a -1.70a -1.90b -1.90b
HDI -7.80 -9.20 -8.85 -8.85
Social Indicators -24.67 -27.44 -10.36 -19.32
Immunisation Rate -8.24 -9.35 -3.31 -3.31
Life Expectancy -1.98 -2.93 -1.96 -1.96
Average Years of Schooling -4.56 -4.56 -6.34 -6.34
Access to Sanitation Facilities -6.86 -6.86 -9.01 -12.12
Child Mortality 12.11 14.02 15.02 15.02
Income Inequality -0.80 37.5 -0.40 -0.40
Notes: Estimated effect of one additional year of war. For human development, immunization rate, life
expectancy, average years of schooling, access to sanitation facilities, child mortality, and income inequality,
the percentage is computed on the sample mean value of the indicator. For social development, the
percentage is computed on the sample standard deviation of the indicator.
14. Conflict – FS Nexus
LOG10(foodimpshr) vs FSI
ceryld vs FSI
2.0
10000.0
LOG10(foodimpshr)
1.2
6666.7
YEM
ceryld
0.3 SDN
3333.3
PAL
IRQ
YEM SDN -0.5
0.0 0.0 40.0 80.0 120.0
0.0 40.0 80.0 120.0 FSI
FSI
PubHealth vs FSI
LOG10(kcal) vs FSI
12.0
3.6
LOG10(kcal)
PubHealth
8.0
3.4
SDN
PAL
YEM
3.3 4.0
IRQ
YEM
SDN
3.1 0.0
0.0 40.0 80.0 120.0 0.0 40.0 80.0 120.0
FSI FSI
15. Post-conflict Challenges (1)
• Service provision in post-conflict is particularly challenging
• Populations needs are most acute and particularly concentrated in
this phase
• Public institutions and governance are particularly weak and
fragmented (center-local divides and horizontal cleavages)
• Elites capture and patronage risk is higher
• Different political interests, approaches, and parallel diplomatic,
military, and development-sponsored activities, reflected in
fragmented institutional mechanisms
• Limited capacity of military aid and its lack of coordination with ODA
• The short-term aid governance approach often prevails over the
long-term one (PIUs vis-à-vis governmental staff, shopping lists,
subcontracting of essential services, fragmented short-term small
scale projects)
• Risk of emergency/aid dependence
16. Post-conflict Challenges (2)
Crowding-in or out Effect of Military Expenditures vs Social Expenditures? (% of GDP)
Military Public education Public health
expenditure expenditure expenditure
Country average average average
2000- 2005- 2001- 2005- 2000- 2005- Conflict-affected
2004 2009 2004 2008 2004 2009 countries tend to
Bahrain 4.40 3.36 - 3.10 2.79 2.66
Egypt 3.24 2.50 4.80 4.06 2.32 2.12
have over-inflated
Iraq 2.38 4.54 - - 1.01 2.58 wage bills that can
Jordan 5.74 5.22 - - 4.86 5.30 reach up to 1/3 of
Kuwait 6.92 3.79 6.30 4.24 2.49 1.92 government budget
Lebanon 4.91 4.29 2.64 2.46 3.44 3.93
(OPT, Iraq, Yemen)
Oman 11.89 9.86 4.05 3.72 2.56 1.99
Qatar 3.88 2.25 2.14 - 2.37 2.07
Saudi Arabia 9.80 8.93 7.27 5.97 2.99 2.78
Sudan 3.77 4.24 - - 1.07 1.88
Syria 5.49 4.22 - 5.09 2.21 1.45
UAE 8.40 5.73 1.84 1.09 2.44 1.81
Yemen 6.16 4.62 9.63 5.15 2.42 1.62
ESCWA average 5.92> 4.89> 4.83> 3.88~ 2.71< 2.67<
Arab Region 6.40 5.28 5.07 3.95 2.57 2.44
EAP 1.49 1.58 3.98 3.79 4.69 4.28
LAC 1.35 1.36 4.18 3.96 3.19 3.51
World average 2.39 2.48 4.33 4.45 5.64 5.76
17. FS, Vulnerability, and Conflict
- Vulnerability to shocks makes poor households risk averse in their
asset-allocation strategy and this aversion is even more pronounced
in conflict-affected areas often characterized by a cascading series
of a combination of conflict-related, natural shocks, and international
price shocks with the result of ever-decreasing food-security levels
and passing up more risky but more profitable businesses.
- Complementing social protection with government supported forms of
insurance (but eventually market-based) can help the poor to
improve their risk copying strategies
Natural Conflict-driven Commodity
Shock Shock price Shock
18. Review of Food Aids
• Food Aid highly volatile in the last two decades partly due to donors’
policies not always based on needs assessment
• Food Aid not a tool to address long-term FS
• Need for closer coordination among relief agencies and for medium-
term budgeting
• Food Aid works when local economic policy is addressed, it is
temporary and limited to contexts lacking institutions and markets
• Need to coordinate short-term relief ops with medium-term
considerations (WFP P4P)
19. Volatility of Humanitarian and Food Aid
1600
3,000,000
1400
2,500,000
1200
Afghanistan
Angola Yemen
1000 2,000,000
DRC Syria
Ethiopia Sudan
800
Mt
Indonesia 1,500,000 OPT
Iraq Lebanon
600
OPT Jordan
1,000,000
Somalia Iraq
400
Sudan Egypt
500,000
200
0 0
Period 1990-2008
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
20. But aid is also volatile at the regional level
Deviation of Gulf state ODA and crude oil price from 1970–2007 average
20
21. Governance deficit – conflict trap (I)
The risk of renewed conflict in countries with good governance
drops rapidly after conflict. In countries characterized by poor
governance, this process takes much longer. Hence, improving
governance is an important part in reducing conflict, and good
governance will in turn decrease the likelihood of conflict.
21
22. Governance deficit – conflict trap (II)
Voice and Accountability Government Effectivness Rule of Law
0 0 0
-0.2 -0.2 -0.2
-0.4 -0.4
-0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8 -0.6
-0.8
-1 -0.8
-1.2 -1
-1
-1.4 -1.2
-1.6 -1.2 -1.4
Regulatory Quality Control of Corruption
Political Stability
1996
1998
2000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
0
0
-0.2
-0.5 -0.2
-0.4
-1 -0.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.8 -1.5
-0.8
-1 -2 -1
-1.2 -1.2
-2.5
23. Importance of land rights in conflict (I)
Insecure or weakly enforced property rights:
• Increase risk of expropriation, which diminishes incentives to invest
and to produce
• decrease productivity by necessitating the need to defend property
in insecure environments
• do not allow productive assets to be transferred to those who can
use them for their livelihood (subsistence farmers) or most
productively (commercial farmers)
• do not allow a crucial asset supporting other transactions such as
obtaining financing
• can cause both grievance and greed
• exacerbate over-urbanization and socio-economic disparities in the
aftermath of a conflict
• are an important driver of food security and therefore of social
stability given that food price shocks hit the landless hardest and
increase the incidence of riots
23
24. Importance of land rights in conflict (II)
• Friction or even open conflict between modern state-led
(+ colonial) and customary or tribal property rights
systems
• Property disputes constitute the single largest cause of
backlog cases in the judicial systems of most post-
conflict countries including LDCs (great entry point to
reform the judiciary)
• Post-conflict government capacity is weak in terms of
systematic and consistent law enforcement and
informal governance systems tend to be relatively
stronger
• However, recent experiences have shown that
remedies to this inherent contradiction are possible
(DRC, Mali, Zimbabwe)
24
25. Recommendations (I)
• The breadth and depth of available data require immediate and
significant improvements.
• Conflict - Poverty (and informality) – Food Insecurity compound into
inter-generational transmission of poverty, inequality, and conflict
relapse
• One year of a civil conflict in the region is enough to cancel
development progress made by an average ESCWA country in 5-10
years
• The potential presence of endogeneity suggests an existence of a
‘feedback-loop’ whereby the process of conflict and de-development
feed on each other. In such instances, a ‘circuit-breaker’ is required
to break this symbiotic vicious cycle.
26. Recommendations (II)
• Governmental action can be directed at reactivating the channels through
which public goods are delivered.
• Closer regional integration and better business environment can increase
the peace dividend on these countries.
• Expansion of family (and nutrition support) programs especially in rural
areas to improve maternal health, provision of education with specific focus
on girls education, and reduce fertility rates.
- Support community-based development funds for infrastructure and services
→ labor generation, social capital and peace dividends
- More use of JAM, joint CAS, PRSPs, SWAPs
- Regional action aimed at tapping Sudan’s agricultural potential in a
transparent manner
- Review land policies in conflict-affected environments
- Learn lessons from food aid and relief modalities and how to link them to
livelihood programs (WFP’s P4P)
- Reform CERF and establish a food aid emergency reserve (ASEAN) or
multi-annual regional fund managed by WFP/OCHA
27. Recommendations (III)
• Strengthen governments’ efforts to preserve water resources
and increase their rational utilization.
• Agriculture (and the rural poor) in these countries is trapped
in low value-added activities and mainly characterized by low
productivity farming. It is therefore vital to increase efficiency
in rain-fed agriculture, enhance ag R&D, and promote
market linkages.
• Donors need to move towards multi-year budgeting for their
transfers to the relief agencies working in a conflict-affected
country so that they can improve their planning and increase
efficiency gains in their operations. Due to absorptive
capacity constraints aid disbursements should gradually rise
during first 3-5 years and then slowly revert back.
28. Recommendations (IV)
• With respect to the issues specifically raised in this report,
future research should provide an even more
comprehensive account of cross-regional differences in the
development costs of war.
• More work will be needed in the future in order to provide
theoretical foundations to our findings: why is the negative
effect of conflict sometimes associated with interstate
conflict while other times is associated with civil conflict?
Why is inequality disproportionally affected by conflict in this
region? And what can we do to reduce the overall effect?
29. Enhance Regional Cooperation through FS
Conflict and FS are two regional problems that require a strong
regional approach
• How can cooperation be promoted?
– Create Awareness: Previous Pan-Arab cooperation efforts were
driven by ideology, not necessity. Cooperation in light of common
threats to the conflict-food security nexus is a necessity
– Build Political Commitment: EU and ASEAN were launched to
promote peace and stability. The obstacles to successful regional
integration were not necessarily easier than in the Arab world today
– Provide Incentives: Cooperation must pay a peace dividend, financed
by transfers and the creation of new economic opportunities. It is a
positive sum game.
– Promote specific actions: reinvigorated supranational actions need to
be undertaken with specific responsibilities in the area of social
assistance programs, rural development, gender and family planning,
and the advancement of an Arab common market.
– Manage External Support: The international community can help
increase the opportunity cost from engaging in conflict through
greater regional economic cooperation, including the dismantling of
protectionism (by trade partners) and more efficient development aid.