Session 4 b maurice saade

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1) Arab countries are highly dependent on wheat imports and vulnerable to price and supply risks in international markets. 2) Investments in wheat import supply chains are needed to reduce costs and inefficiencies, which could save billions annually and increase strategic grain reserves. 3) Improving regional cooperation and adopting best practices from successful supply chains can help address bottlenecks, lower costs, and enhance food security across Arab nations.

THE GRAIN CHAIN

Food Security &
Managing Wheat Imports in Arab Countries
Presented by Maurice Saade, Sr. Agriculture Economist, The World Bank
Beirut, February 6, 2012

Authors: Julian Lampietti, Michelle Battat, Arnold de Hartog,
Dana Erekat, Sean Michaels, Donald Larson

As a region, Arab countries are the most dependent on
imported grain
2 Context

Net Exports of Grain (Trillion Calories), by Region, 2010

Former
Soviet Union
+56
Asia
Europe +58
+318 -204 (6%)

North America -228

-62 Arab
+24 Oceania
Countries
Central and South
(56%) +60
America Rest of Africa
(13%)

+ Net Exporter
- Net Importer
Dependency
(%)
Ratio

Source: Authors.

The 3 main pillars for improving food security in Arab countries.

3

1. Address Demand
Volume of Grains (Million MT)

3. Manage Exposure to Import
Risks

2. Enhance Supply

Note: Data based on a model that generated illustrative projections for Arab countries (including Sudan)
Source: Adapted from IFPRI, 2008

Wheat Import Supply Chain (WISC):
The analysis covers the supply chain from the unloading port to bulk storage at the
flour mill
4

•Objective is to…
• identify bottlenecks and provide recommendations for improvement
• identify opportunities for regional cooperation
• identify regional best practices (lessons learned from neighbors, or benchmarks)

BENCHMARKING EXERCISE:
•10 Arab countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi,
Tunisia, Yemen)
•2 benchmarks (Netherlands & South Korea)

Some Arab countries import wheat from a diverse range
of sources, while others do not
5 Benchmarking

2009 Wheat Imports by Origin for Selected Corridors
100%
Share of Wheat imports by Origin

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

EU-27 Black Sea Americas Australia Other
Notes: Wheat imports from Turkey are grouped in the Black Sea category.
Source: Authors.

Logistics efficiency was measured using two metrics: cost
and time
6 Benchmarking

Average 2009 WISC Costs (Total: $40/mt)

36%
($15)

22%
($9) 29%
($12)

12%
($5)

Port Logistics
Storage
Transport to Inland Silos & Mills
WISC Management
Source: Authors.
Note: Costs are weighted averages for the ten participating Arab countries. Percentages may not add to 100 and values may not add to totals due to rounding.

WISC Costs in Arab countries in 2009 were up to four
times that of the Netherlands
7

Bottlenecks at the port can significantly increase WISC
costs and transit times
8 Benchmarking

14
Vessel Waiting and Unloading Times

12 3
(Indexed to the Netherlands)

10
3

8 5

6 3
10
4 8 2
0
3 1
5 5 4 0
2 1
3 3 3 2
1 2 0
1 1
0

Unloading Time Waiting Time Benchmark Country

Source: Authors.

Efficient and reliable inland transportation is critical to
ensuring delivery of wheat
9 Benchmarking

2009 Inland Transport Costs as a Share of Total WISC Costs

60%

51%
50%
42%

Percent of WISC Costs
40%

30%
21%
20%
12%
10%
10% 6% 7%
2%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0%

Source: Authors. AgWeb. http://www.agweb.com/what-a-day/, accessed October 4, 2011.

Key messages
10

 Arab countries are highly dependent on cereal imports, particularly
wheat, and are vulnerable to high and volatile international prices.
 Supply disruptions can threaten national security, suggesting that
supply chains must be efficient and reliable.
 Investments in wheat-import supply chains are critical to reducing Arab
countries exposure to import price and supply risks.
 Arab countries import ~40 MMT/year & $40/mt is $1.6 BN per year
Saving 10% of supply chain costs can help increase strategic reserves
by one month
 Strategic reserves can mitigate import risks for Arab countries.
Increasing strategic reserves involves key tradeoffs that must be
addressed when making policy decisions.
 Improving the performance of the Wheat-Import Supply Chain is
critical for food security in Arab Countries and needs to be an integral
part in any food security strategy, in addition to enhancing domestic
supplies and a better management of demand.

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Session 4 b maurice saade

1. THE GRAIN CHAIN Food Security & Managing Wheat Imports in Arab Countries Presented by Maurice Saade, Sr. Agriculture Economist, The World Bank Beirut, February 6, 2012 Authors: Julian Lampietti, Michelle Battat, Arnold de Hartog, Dana Erekat, Sean Michaels, Donald Larson

2. As a region, Arab countries are the most dependent on imported grain 2 Context Net Exports of Grain (Trillion Calories), by Region, 2010 Former Soviet Union +56 Asia Europe +58 +318 -204 (6%) North America -228 -62 Arab +24 Oceania Countries Central and South (56%) +60 America Rest of Africa (13%) + Net Exporter - Net Importer Dependency (%) Ratio Source: Authors.

3. The 3 main pillars for improving food security in Arab countries. 3 1. Address Demand Volume of Grains (Million MT) 3. Manage Exposure to Import Risks 2. Enhance Supply Note: Data based on a model that generated illustrative projections for Arab countries (including Sudan) Source: Adapted from IFPRI, 2008

4. Wheat Import Supply Chain (WISC): The analysis covers the supply chain from the unloading port to bulk storage at the flour mill 4 •Objective is to… • identify bottlenecks and provide recommendations for improvement • identify opportunities for regional cooperation • identify regional best practices (lessons learned from neighbors, or benchmarks) BENCHMARKING EXERCISE: •10 Arab countries (Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi, Tunisia, Yemen) •2 benchmarks (Netherlands & South Korea)

5. Some Arab countries import wheat from a diverse range of sources, while others do not 5 Benchmarking 2009 Wheat Imports by Origin for Selected Corridors 100% Share of Wheat imports by Origin 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% EU-27 Black Sea Americas Australia Other Notes: Wheat imports from Turkey are grouped in the Black Sea category. Source: Authors.

6. Logistics efficiency was measured using two metrics: cost and time 6 Benchmarking Average 2009 WISC Costs (Total: $40/mt) 36% ($15) 22% ($9) 29% ($12) 12% ($5) Port Logistics Storage Transport to Inland Silos & Mills WISC Management Source: Authors. Note: Costs are weighted averages for the ten participating Arab countries. Percentages may not add to 100 and values may not add to totals due to rounding.

7. WISC Costs in Arab countries in 2009 were up to four times that of the Netherlands 7

8. Bottlenecks at the port can significantly increase WISC costs and transit times 8 Benchmarking 14 Vessel Waiting and Unloading Times 12 3 (Indexed to the Netherlands) 10 3 8 5 6 3 10 4 8 2 0 3 1 5 5 4 0 2 1 3 3 3 2 1 2 0 1 1 0 Unloading Time Waiting Time Benchmark Country Source: Authors.

9. Efficient and reliable inland transportation is critical to ensuring delivery of wheat 9 Benchmarking 2009 Inland Transport Costs as a Share of Total WISC Costs 60% 51% 50% 42% Percent of WISC Costs 40% 30% 21% 20% 12% 10% 10% 6% 7% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Source: Authors. AgWeb. http://www.agweb.com/what-a-day/, accessed October 4, 2011.

10. Key messages 10  Arab countries are highly dependent on cereal imports, particularly wheat, and are vulnerable to high and volatile international prices.  Supply disruptions can threaten national security, suggesting that supply chains must be efficient and reliable.  Investments in wheat-import supply chains are critical to reducing Arab countries exposure to import price and supply risks.  Arab countries import ~40 MMT/year & $40/mt is $1.6 BN per year Saving 10% of supply chain costs can help increase strategic reserves by one month  Strategic reserves can mitigate import risks for Arab countries. Increasing strategic reserves involves key tradeoffs that must be addressed when making policy decisions.  Improving the performance of the Wheat-Import Supply Chain is critical for food security in Arab Countries and needs to be an integral part in any food security strategy, in addition to enhancing domestic supplies and a better management of demand.

Session 4 b maurice saade

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