Every month SYZ Asset Management publishes “1 month in 10 snapshots” a review of global economic activity. Since an image can be more telling than words, every month we select 10 charts illustrating the key data that has marked economic and financial activity over the month, decoding their meaning with a brief explanation.
The economic calendar was thin this week. The Fed’s Beige Book noted that “economic activity continued to stabilize in July and August.” Not exactly a booming assessment of the economy, but better than the previous report. The July trade deficit showed improvement in both imports and exports – further evidence suggesting that the U.S. and global economies have bottomed. Consumer sentiment rose in early September.
The economic calendar was thin this week. The Fed’s Beige Book noted that “economic activity continued to stabilize in July and August.” Not exactly a booming assessment of the economy, but better than the previous report. The July trade deficit showed improvement in both imports and exports – further evidence suggesting that the U.S. and global economies have bottomed. Consumer sentiment rose in early September.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | April 2020 | Ernest Hemingway, Albert Camus, an...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with over $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios.
The impact of the current recession on the world economies, as presented by B.V.Raghunandan to MBA students at SDM College of Business Management, Mangalore in Karnataka state in India on February 26, 2009
To
help senior executives weather this economic storm, the Economist Intelligence Unit has updated its
answers to some of the questions most frequently asked by clients, following the publication of the
four previous editions of Global crisis monitor. In answering each question, we outline our current
forecast, explain our thinking, and highlight any key risks or alternative scenarios.
Mercer Capital's Bank Watch | April 2020 | Ernest Hemingway, Albert Camus, an...Mercer Capital
Brought to you by the Financial Institutions Team of Mercer Capital, this monthly newsletter is focused on bank activity in five U.S. regions. Bank Watch highlights various banking metrics, including public market indicators, M&A market indicators, and key indices of the top financial institutions, providing insight into financial institution valuation issues.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with over $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios.
The impact of the current recession on the world economies, as presented by B.V.Raghunandan to MBA students at SDM College of Business Management, Mangalore in Karnataka state in India on February 26, 2009
To
help senior executives weather this economic storm, the Economist Intelligence Unit has updated its
answers to some of the questions most frequently asked by clients, following the publication of the
four previous editions of Global crisis monitor. In answering each question, we outline our current
forecast, explain our thinking, and highlight any key risks or alternative scenarios.
Syz & co syz asset management - market outlook 27 february 2013SYZBank
After a start to the year buoyed by optimism, the last few weeks have been characterized by a kind of “reality check” which does not necessarily call into question the macro-economic outlook, but which reminds us that not everything can be wiped clean by floods of liquidity.
Syz & co syz asset management - point de vue 8 février 2013Banque_SYZ
« Une amélioration graduelle de la croissance mondiale en 2013 ». Tel
est le titre de la mise à jour de janvier des prévisions de croissance du
Fonds Monétaire International. Dans cet énoncé, le mot « graduel » est
tout aussi important que le mot « amélioration », comme en attestent
les perspectives de croissance mondiale pour 2013 et 2014,
respectivement à +3.5% et +4.1% après +3.2% en 2012.
Candidates must apply by Friday, July 29, 2016. This requisition may close early if an adequate candidate pool is filled.
Log into www.msccn.org and search for Req# 161001BR
The report addresses U.S. household debt and it's impact on discretioniary spending in the U.S. gaming industry. It also provides a regional analysis of Household debt and personal income levels.
“Ironically, if central bank ‘financial repression’ continues to work and increases
economic growth, we will likely see markedly higher bond yields by year-end
following intervention by the Fed to rein in stimulus as unemployment falls.“
THE HOUSING MARKETGreat RecessionMortgage collapseHigh i.docxrtodd33
THE HOUSING MARKET
Great Recession
Mortgage collapse
High interest rates
Restricted supply of new homes
https://roselawgroupreporter.com/2015/05/freddie-mac-housing-markets-continue-to-get-better-ariz-among-most-improved/
In the course of the most recent decade, no occasion has impacted the housing market more than the worldwide financial downturn that started in December 2007. Amid this seismic financial move, alluded to as the Great Recession, many, if not the vast majority, confronted a bunch of uncommon challenges. The subprime contract crumple prompted numerous individuals losing their homes and monetary stagnation. Americans confronted money related debacle as the estimation of their homes dropped well underneath the sum they had obtained and subprime loan fees spiked. Month to month contract installments relatively multiplied in a few sections of the nation. Much of the time, borrowers were in reality better defaulting on their home loan advances instead of paying more for a home that had dropped sharply in esteem. Thus, home building saw a huge decrease, bringing about a confined supply of new homes for a consistently developing populace. The absence of supply and the expanded request saw the land condition transform into a vender's market. More individuals were currently pursuing less homes, which expanded home costs.
1
HOUSING PRICE INDEX
HOUSING PRICE INDEX
2011 THE AVERAGE PRICE WAS DOWN TO JUST 300K US DOLLARS
American housing market reform
Today’s average housing price index
The housing price index averaged around 378k us dollars in 2007, by 2011 the average price was down to just 300k us dollars.
During 2011, under the Obama administration, the American housing market reform was created. The housing market reform was created to increase the number of jobs for US citizens and help restore the housing market. Today, the average housing price index is back up to just over 400k.
2
Household income
2007 average household income
decrease in average household income
By 2011 the average household income dropped down to a little over 53k year
2016 average household income
The average household income for families were up before the market crashed. The decrease in average household income played it’s part in the housing market crash. The average household income in the US was around 58k per year in 2007, by 2011 the average household income dropped down to a little over 53k per year. In just two years (2013) the average household income was up to 55k a year and today the average household income is up to 59k per year.
3
Household income
Here is a depiction of the Household Income from 2007 to current.
4
3908339448398144017940544409094127541640420054237058149560765568354245534015333155214543985723059039
Year
Income
unemployment
Unemployment rate
Affects of unemployment to housing market
Current unemployment rate
In 2007 the unemployment rate was over 4 percent but due to the affects of the market crashing and.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios. Agcapita publishes a monthly agriculture briefing.
Indian Economy: The Curious Case of Household Savings-Investment GapAshutosh Bhargava
The debate between former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former US Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has rekindled interest on the topic of "Global Savings Glut". This article gives some interesting insights about the evolution of household savings in India and the way forward.
Overview of GLOBAL FINANCE CRISIS and impact with market. Impacts of the US Financial Crisis on Indian Economy. FINANCE CRISIS, Subprime Mortgage Crisis, US Financial Markets, US Unemployment and Stock Market Returns, Treasury Rates and Inflation,
Syz & co syz asset management - 1 month in 10 snapshots february 2013
1. February 2013
Every month SYZ Asset Management publishes “1 month in 10 snapshots” a review of global economic
activity. Since an image can be more telling than words, every month we select 10 charts illustrating the key
data that has marked economic and financial activity over the month, decoding their meaning with a brief
explanation.
A publication of the Research & Analysis team – SYZ Asset Management - Tel. +41 (0)58 799 10 00 - info@syzgroup.com
Author: Adrien Pichoud
This document is based on graphics the data of which were collected during January 2013.
Index
1. United States – Domestic demand takes over
2. United States – Mortgage rates at a low
3. United States – A deceptive decrease in GDP
4. Euro zone – Household sentiment has also hit a low
5. Germany – 2013, recovery in sight
6. Japan – The Bank of Japan “cautiously aggressive”
7. Japan – Repercussions of the slide in the yen
8. China – After the “soft landing”, the “soft recovery”
9. Foreign-exchange – Pressure eases on the Swiss franc
10. Bonds – The euro zone’s 10-year rate at an all-time low
1. United States – Domestic demand takes over
• The US economy has finally avoided the ACTIVITY INDICES IN SERVICES AND INDUSTRY
famous “fiscal cliff”. Thanks to a last-minute
agreement on the “tax” issues and the 65
“spending cuts” issues, the much-feared
sudden tightening of budgetary policy has
given way to a more moderate tightening,
which puts the public deficit on the reduction
60
track but without breaking a still-fragile
growth dynamic.
• Thus the favourable trend that appeared in 55
summer 2012 seems set to last: the trend
towards firmer domestic demand and in
particular private consumption, which is
gradually taking over from investment and
50
exports as the engine of growth.
• The drop in the unemployment rate since the
summer, real-estate prices that are at last 45
rising, historically advantageous financing
terms and the clear-cut fall in gasoline prices
have supported consumption and the services
40
sector. Conversely, activity in industry, which
is more dependent on exports and
investment, has marked time. This transition
is important to ensure sustainable growth of 35
the economy, which in 2012 may have 00 01 02 03
US ISM NO N MANUF ACT URING
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
emerged from a long phase of “recovery” US ISM MANUFACTURING
begun at the end of 2009. Source: T homson Reuters Datastream
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to
invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was
written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect
losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.
2. February 2013
2. United States – Mortgage rates at a low
• The major operation to reflate the US MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS (REFINANCINGS AND PURCHASES)
AND AVERAGE 30 YEAR RATE (INVERTED)
economy undertaken by the Fed after the
bursting of the real-estate bubble at last 900 3
appears to be bearing fruit. Three successive
quantitative easing operations (part of the last 800
of which directly concerns securities that 4
finance mortgages) have pushed mortgage 700
rates down to all-time lows (around 3.5% for
a 30-year loan).
600 5
• The first consequence of this interest-rate 500
slide is that refinancings of mortgages have 6
increased, allowing households to reduce their
400
financial burdens. This trend accelerated in
2012 with the return of rising house prices.
300 7
• The mix of “a fall in unemployment/low 200
interest rates/rising prices” is even causing an
8
embryonic recovery of applications for loans
100
to buy a house. Five years after the bubble 0 9
burst, the real-estate market at last appears 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
to be gradually returning to life.
US W EEKLY MO RT G AG E APPLI CAT I O NS - REF I NANCING (52 W EEKS AVERAG E)
US W EEKLY MO RT G AG E APPLI CAT I O NS - PURCHASES (52 W EEKS AVERAG E)
US F REDDI E MAC 30 YEAR F IXED RAT E(R. H. SCALE) Source: T homson Reut ers Dat ast ream
3. United States – A deceptive decrease in GDP
• The first estimation of US GDP growth for the QUARTERLY CHANGE IN GDP AND PRIVATE DEMAND
4th quarter of 2012 looks like a very 6
unpleasant surprise: for the first time since
spring 2009, the US economy posted a 4
negative growth rate (-0.1%).
• Yet the growth dynamic was much better than 2
the figure may lead us to believe: household
consumption firmed up (+2.2% in 4Q12),
residential construction again accelerated
0
(+15.3%) and corporate investment re-
bounded (+8.4%) following the summer soft -2
patch. Thus in actual fact private domestic
demand clearly accelerated in the 4th quarter! -4
• It is in fact a substantial inventory reduction
trend among companies (which will be -6
favourable for production in early 2013) and
the drop in public spending in the defence -8
sector that are to blame for this decrease in 2009
US - REAL G DP Q oQ %
2010 2011 2012
GDP, with a combined impact of -2.6%. US - F I NAL PRI VAT E CO NSUMPT IO N & I NVEST MENT Q oQ %
Source: T homson Reut ers Dat ast ream
4. Euro zone – Household sentiment has also hit a low
• Since last summer, market sentiment and CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, RETAIL SALES AND GDP
more generally corporate sentiment have
improved in the euro zone. 5 6
• But households, which are not very sensitive
to the measures taken in response to the 0
4
financial aspect of the crisis, have seen their
situation continue to deteriorate. The -5
consumer confidence index has thus fallen 2
again, to reach in November its lowest level -10
since May 2009.
• However, the same index has since -15 0
rebounded, suggesting that even on the
households’ front, sentiment may have -20
bottomed out. However, we are still far from -2
being able to expect an imminent recovery of -25
consumption! The widespread tightening of
fiscal policies and record unemployment rates -30
-4
will continue to weigh on spending.
• But after the appearance of a similar trend
among companies, it appears that the
-35 -6
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
situation has also stopped deteriorating on the RET AIL SALES - 3MMA YoY %(R. H. SCALE)
EURO AREA - G DP YoY %(R. H. SCALE)
households’ front. EURO AREA - CO NSUMER CO NF I DENCE Source: T homson Reut ers Dat ast ream
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to
invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was
written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect
losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.
3. February 2013
5. Germany – 2013, recovery in sight
ACTIVITY INDICES IN INDUSTRY AND SERVICES AND COMPANY
• According to the IMF, German GDP growth in HEADS’ BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS
2013 is unlikely to exceed that of 2012: 65 120
+0.9% in both cases. However, the dynamic
appears to be more encouraging for this new
year than it was last year. 60
110
• In 2012, the exacerbation of the euro-zone 55
crisis and the slowdown of growth in the 100
emerging world had weighed heavily on
50
German industry, which is highly dependent
on its exports. This weakness had ended up 90
spreading to the sectors more geared to 45
domestic demand, even causing a (slight) rise 80
in unemployment. Thus the quarterly growth 40
rate had constantly declined in 2012.
70
• However, the clear-cut recovery of the activity 35
indices, particularly in services, and the rise in
business expectations again observed in 30 60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
January appear to signal that the trend has
PMI m anufacturing PMI se rv ice s
been reversed for 2013. IFO busine ss e x pe ctations So urc e: SYZ A M , B lo o m berg
6. Japan – The Bank of Japan “cautiously aggressive”
• For its first meeting of 2013 the Bank of Japan BOJ BALANCE SHEET (% OF GDP) AND ANNUAL INFLATION
has announced some substantial measures, RATE
even though some of them are less aggressive 36% 0.8%
than what may have been expected.
• The aim is now clearly to move out of the 34%
0.6%
deflation in which the economy has been
32%
bogged down for almost 20 years. To do so,
the BoJ has set an inflation target of 2% and 0.4%
30%
intends to ease its monetary policy until this
target is achieved. 28% 0.2%
• In addition to holding interest rates at close to
0% (which has been the case since 1995), the 26% 0.0%
BoJ will proceed to make massive liquidity
injections (Quantitative Easing): JPY 13 trillion 24%
per month (≈USD 140 bn), which, over one -0.2%
year, is equivalent to 30% of Japan’s GDP! 22%
But all this will not begin before January -0.4%
2014… Until then it is the current programme 20%
of JPY 3 trillion per month that will be
maintained. An already-substantial easing 18% -0.6%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
(comparable to what the Fed is currently
BoJ balance sheet (% of GD P)
doing) but until now insufficient to take the Inflation rate (YoY %) So urce: SYZ A M , B lo o m berg, D atastream
Archipelago out of deflation.
7. Japan – Repercussions of the slide in the yen
TRADE BALANCE, EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
• Since the March 2011 earthquake, Japan’s 000'S
trade balance has swung into deficit. The 15 75
blame can be placed on the increase in energy
imports when exports were decreasing owing 60
to the decline in global growth, the 10
Archipelago’s loss of competitiveness and the
tensions with China.
40
• However, the recent slide in the yen will not 5
necessarily be beneficial for the trend in the
20
foreign trade balance: while it should favour a
recovery of exports, it will also lead to an 0 0
increase in the value of imports. The famous
J-shaped curve…
-20
• We should therefore probably not expect an -5
imminent return to a trade surplus in Japan.
On the other hand, increasing activity in -40
industry and more expensive imports head in -10 -50
the direction of the Bank of Japan’s objective
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
JAP T rade Balance (sum 12 m, bn yen)
– an exit from deflation… JAP Exports (3m MAV YoY %)(R.H. SCALE)
JAP I mports (3m MAV YoY %)(R.H. SCALE) Source: T homson Reut ers Dat ast ream
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to
invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was
written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect
losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.
4. February 2013
8. China – After the “soft landing”, the “soft recovery”
• The fear of a marked slowdown in the Chinese ANNUAL CHANGE IN GDP AND EXPORTS
economy had haunted investors in 2012. 15 100
However, most of the activity indices
stabilized during the autumn, giving 14
substance to the soft landing for growth at a 80
less brisk, but supposedly sustainable, pace. 13
• The rebound of annual GDP growth to 7.8% in 12
60
the 4th quarter (following 7.4% the previous
quarter) merely confirms the apparent end of 11
40
the virtually uninterrupted slowdown observed
since 2010. 10
20
• But that does not mean we should expect a 9
marked rebound of activity. A stabilization of
GDP growth at around 8% appears to be the 8 0
best that can be expected in China, provided
that exports continue to increase. And 7
although the trend today is less worrying, the
-20
risks connected with the necessary 6 -30
rebalancing towards domestic consumption
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
CHI NA - G DP (YoY %)
have still not disappeared…
CHI NA - EXPO RT S (YoY % 3M MAV)(R. H. SCALE)
Source: T homson Reut ers Dat ast ream
9. Foreign-exchange – Pressure eases on the Swiss franc
• And what if the Swiss National Bank were a DOLLAR AGAINST SWISS FRANC: RELATIVE CHANGE IN THE
few moves ahead in the “currencies war” that BALANCE SHEETS OF THE SNB AND THE FED
the central banks of the developed economies 1.9 5
appear to be waging on each other? 1.8
• By accumulating substantial foreign-exchange 1.7 4.5
reserves in defending the 1.20 threshold for 1.6
the Swiss franc against the euro, the Swiss
1.5
National Bank has inflated its balance sheet so 4
much that it exceeds 80% of Switzerland's 1.4
national GDP. Which is a much faster rate of 1.3
3.5
liquidity creation than any other central bank 1.2
in the world! 1.1
• Today, the upward pressure on the franc has 1
3
diminished with the decline in tensions in the
0.9
euro zone, which has enabled the SNB to stop
2.5
intervening in the foreign-exchange market. 0.8
The scale of the liquidity created since 0.7
summer 2011 now gives rise to the threat of a 0.6 2
downward correction of the Swiss currency, 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
against both the euro and the dollar. US D /C HF S NB /FED So urc e: SYZ A M , B lo o m berg, D atas tream
10. Bonds – The euro zone’s 10-year rate at an all-time low
• In spring 2012 the interest-rate on the 10- AVERAGE 10-YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND RATE (WEIGHTED BY
year German government bond had reached GDP) OF THE EURO ZONE AND THE GERMAN BUND
an all-time low. But it was a reaction to rising 6.0
interest rates in the peripheral European
countries, against a backdrop of fears that the 5.5
monetary union might break up. 5.0
• Since then, German interest rates, despite
some signs of tension since the beginning of 4.5
the year, have remained extremely low while
a spectacular easing movement was taking 4.0
place on Spanish and Italian interest rates. 3.5
• As a consequence, the average government
bond interest-rate in the euro zone - in other 3.0
words the governments’ average financing
rate (weighted by the size of the economies) – 2.5
fell at the turn of 2012 and 2013 to its lowest 2.0
level since the monetary union was created,
below 3%. An illustration of the mix between 1.5
“recession/lack of inflation/the ECB’s very
accommodative monetary policy” even if this 1.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
rate still remains higher than inflation, unlike So urc e: SYZ A M , B lo o m berg, IM F
EMU 10y ra te G ER 10y ra te
in the United States.
This document has been produced purely for the purpose of information and does not therefore constitute an offer or a recommendation to
invest or to purchase or sell shares, nor is it a contractual document. The opinions expressed reflect our judgement on the date on which it was
written and are therefore liable to be altered at any time without notice. We refuse to accept any liability in the event of any direct or indirect
losses, caused by using the information supplied in this document.